the Talking Can
10-15-2013, 07:45 PM
Barnwell covers a lot of ground in these articles, pretty good read.
http://www.grantland.com/blog/the-triangle/post/_/id/78191/thank-you-for-not-coaching-week-6
This weekend saw the studio hosts of the world spread out in commentary booths around this great nation to remind us all of that one inviolable truth: Wouldn't it have been better if this team just took the easy field goal in the first quarter? The NFL's best and brightest spent the weekend counting scores and adding three to the total before realizing that x + 3 is better than x. It was the 650th consecutive great Sunday for hindsight.
Of course, that's a really stupid way to look at things. As I noted in last week's TYFNC, that sort of logic ignores how the game's strategy would have changed, how later possessions that required a fourth-down conversion would have ended up producing a field goal instead. Even more naively, that logic doesn't consider the impact a touchdown would have had in that earlier situation. You never hear about the team that scored a touchdown early and came to feel smart about it later. You also don't hear about the team that takes the sure points early and comes to regret it later, as the Jets nearly did last week.
1. Ron Rivera goes for it on fourth down twice during his opening drive, wins my heart after the game. In one of the most stunning turnarounds in league history, Rivera has somehow become the most aggressive fourth-down coach in football. Even though he was playing a Vikings team that was hungry or had nothing to lose or whatever other platitudes people use to describe a team that sucks, Rivera went for it twice on his team's opening drive. A handoff to Mike Tolbert on fourth-and-1 from the Minnesota 32-yard line produced a first down, and on fourth-and-1 from the 2-yard line, a play-action pass found a wide-open Steve Smith for an easy score.
After the game, things got even better. When asked about the decision to go for it on fourth down, Rivera told reporters, "It's what we're going to do now."
You want to know how that quote makes me feel?
Halftime Draws
The meaningless pre-halftime draw this week came in Kansas City. The Chiefs handed the ball to Jamaal Charles once to start a pre-halftime drive before Alex Smith threw an incomplete pass. On third down inside their own 30-yard line with exactly one second left on the clock, the Chiefs handed the ball to Charles up the gut one more time; he gained two yards.
This is infuriatingly dumb. Charles needs to score a touchdown or somehow be face-masked by four defenders to justify running the ball here. The Chiefs are utterly dependent upon him; Charles is fifth in the NFL in carries and has been thrown more passes than any other back in football. His backup is Knile Davis, who had major fumbling issues in college and fumbled on his only touch of the game on Sunday. Why are you giving Charles a carry with no upside and notable downside? Just let Smith kneel and go into the locker room. That's what you pay Smith for, right? Kneeling to close out successful halves? No? You sure? In any case, cut out these useless draws before somebody gets hurt.
...there's one simple question to consider here: Is it easier to convert on fourth-and–1 foot than it is to kick a 50-yard field goal?
Of course it is! On third- or fourth-and-1 over the past five years, teams have converted 68.8 percent of the time. That's almost surely a conservative estimate, since the Chargers didn't need the full yard and had been gashing Indy on the ground all night. The Chargers probably convert on a Philip Rivers sneak or a Le'Ron McClain handoff about 75 percent of the time in that spot. Kickers have hit field goals between 50 and 52 yards over that same time frame 64.7 percent of the time. Novak had been 6-for-12 on kicks of 50 yards or more, but he was playing in calm conditions at home, so maybe 65 percent is the estimate. The move worked out for McCoy, who has done a great job with the San Diego offense this year, but it wasn't the right call.
http://www.grantland.com/blog/the-triangle/post/_/id/78191/thank-you-for-not-coaching-week-6
This weekend saw the studio hosts of the world spread out in commentary booths around this great nation to remind us all of that one inviolable truth: Wouldn't it have been better if this team just took the easy field goal in the first quarter? The NFL's best and brightest spent the weekend counting scores and adding three to the total before realizing that x + 3 is better than x. It was the 650th consecutive great Sunday for hindsight.
Of course, that's a really stupid way to look at things. As I noted in last week's TYFNC, that sort of logic ignores how the game's strategy would have changed, how later possessions that required a fourth-down conversion would have ended up producing a field goal instead. Even more naively, that logic doesn't consider the impact a touchdown would have had in that earlier situation. You never hear about the team that scored a touchdown early and came to feel smart about it later. You also don't hear about the team that takes the sure points early and comes to regret it later, as the Jets nearly did last week.
1. Ron Rivera goes for it on fourth down twice during his opening drive, wins my heart after the game. In one of the most stunning turnarounds in league history, Rivera has somehow become the most aggressive fourth-down coach in football. Even though he was playing a Vikings team that was hungry or had nothing to lose or whatever other platitudes people use to describe a team that sucks, Rivera went for it twice on his team's opening drive. A handoff to Mike Tolbert on fourth-and-1 from the Minnesota 32-yard line produced a first down, and on fourth-and-1 from the 2-yard line, a play-action pass found a wide-open Steve Smith for an easy score.
After the game, things got even better. When asked about the decision to go for it on fourth down, Rivera told reporters, "It's what we're going to do now."
You want to know how that quote makes me feel?
Halftime Draws
The meaningless pre-halftime draw this week came in Kansas City. The Chiefs handed the ball to Jamaal Charles once to start a pre-halftime drive before Alex Smith threw an incomplete pass. On third down inside their own 30-yard line with exactly one second left on the clock, the Chiefs handed the ball to Charles up the gut one more time; he gained two yards.
This is infuriatingly dumb. Charles needs to score a touchdown or somehow be face-masked by four defenders to justify running the ball here. The Chiefs are utterly dependent upon him; Charles is fifth in the NFL in carries and has been thrown more passes than any other back in football. His backup is Knile Davis, who had major fumbling issues in college and fumbled on his only touch of the game on Sunday. Why are you giving Charles a carry with no upside and notable downside? Just let Smith kneel and go into the locker room. That's what you pay Smith for, right? Kneeling to close out successful halves? No? You sure? In any case, cut out these useless draws before somebody gets hurt.
...there's one simple question to consider here: Is it easier to convert on fourth-and–1 foot than it is to kick a 50-yard field goal?
Of course it is! On third- or fourth-and-1 over the past five years, teams have converted 68.8 percent of the time. That's almost surely a conservative estimate, since the Chargers didn't need the full yard and had been gashing Indy on the ground all night. The Chargers probably convert on a Philip Rivers sneak or a Le'Ron McClain handoff about 75 percent of the time in that spot. Kickers have hit field goals between 50 and 52 yards over that same time frame 64.7 percent of the time. Novak had been 6-for-12 on kicks of 50 yards or more, but he was playing in calm conditions at home, so maybe 65 percent is the estimate. The move worked out for McCoy, who has done a great job with the San Diego offense this year, but it wasn't the right call.