Opponent's perspective on Chiefs versus Broncos

[Anyong Bluth]

I wouldn't typically post this except there is some good numbers that are food for thought and we have 2 weeks to hash this over. Obviously, the talk is still focused on if our 9-0 record is for real. I don't think they are the best team in the league, but that doesn't mean they can't get better, and I don't think the bye week could have come at a better time.

Prisco made stupid comments like - this is the worst 9-0 team ever. Realize that in the Super Bowl era, there have only been 19 teams that have gone 9-0. So it's a backhanded comment simply to get attention. Not to mention, when someone asked Pete to name who he ranked 18th of all the 9-0 teams, he had nothing, so he's just basically making arbitrary statements to get buzz and a reaction to drive Web traffic and twitter followers.

Obviously, my biggest concerns about this team are:

1. Fatigue on the Defensive side starting to catch up with them just a little past the halfway point of the season.

2. Offense needs to execute and generate more points- that's a no Brainer.

For all the talk about KC having a tough remaining schedule, Denver has as tough a road to go in their remaining games. They also only have 3 more home games, and 5 left on the road. I do think that they're play on the road drops a good deal.

Article below:


Mistakes are the great equalizer. They even the playing field and bring into play many more possible outcomes. A team down by two scores must start to press matters. A team down by one score or tied can stick to the gameplan and grind away.

The Chiefs are 9-0 because they have kept games close enough that when the 4th quarter played out, the endgames have tilted to their favor. Outside of a drubbing of the lowly Jaguars to begin the season, the Chiefs have not pulled away decisively from an opponent until very late in a game. They have capitalized on mistake after mistake, whether these mistakes be forced or not, by scoring points on defense or by giving their offense the ball in favorable field position.

I've watched a handful of early Chiefs games to this point, and have seen the same formula over and over and over again. here's how you beat the Chiefs:

1) Control Field Position

2) Don't turn the ball over

That's it. Simple right? Their offense has been just efficient enough to flip field position and give those elite QB's by the names of Tuel, Campbell, Gabbert, Fitzpatrick lots of yardage to cover in order to even sniff the idea of scoring points. Well, you take long fields, coupled with inexperienced signal callers, combined with a great defense and you get offenses having to sustain 8-10 play drives in order to score. Sooner or later a mistake will be made.

The inexperienced signal caller will make some dumb throw, the pass rush will dislodge the ball or cause some panic and the defense will score points or give the ball back to the KC offense with stellar field position.

I went back and logged everyone of KCs offensive scoring drives. I logged when they were given a short field due to special teams or a turnover. I also did not count kneel downs before the half or to end the game.

Table 1.

http://img.tapatalk.com/d/13/11/05/u8u6a7ev.jpg


http://i.imgur.com/moxpDrj.jpg

Continued
http://img.tapatalk.com/d/13/11/05/dajujyhu.jpg

http://imgur.com/kZUBKbs


The Chiefs have had 33 scoring drives out of 104 opportunities (31.7%). These scoring opportunities have yielded 15 TD and 18 FG (159 total points, including extra points). Out of those scoring opportunities, 12 have been provided by a defensive turnover. These scoring opportunities have yielded 4 TD and 8 FG (52 total points, including extra points.)

This means that about a third of Kansas City's offensive points have come off of turnovers.

Other interesting numbers to note:

- The Chiefs have had 33 three and outs as an offense (31.7%)

- The Chiefs have had 9 drives of 10 plays or more (8.6%) (7 TD, 2 FG).

You noticed that I have the number 159 as their offensive output. That would equal 17-18 offensive points per game. About a TD less than their 23-24 points per game average.

When the Chiefs offense has been asked to produce on it's own without any help, it has managed 107 points or about 12 per game.

You don't have to be special against the Chiefs to score enough points to win. Remember, the Chiefs only have 7 TD drives over more than 75 yards. Give them long fields and they will most likely punt and or kick field goals.

Contrast that with the Broncos Offense:

- 96 drives, 40 TDs, 12 FGs (scoring 54.2%) or about 39.5 points per game.

- 20 three and outs (20.8%)

- The field position for 10 scores (8 TDs, and 2 FGs, or 62 points) has come via a special teams play or turnover.

- Would adjust the Broncos offensive PPG to 31.8 PPG without any help.

You want to know how to beat the Broncos?

Control Field Position and get lots of turnovers

The only loss of the season, the Broncos put up the following drive chart:

Table 2
http://img.tapatalk.com/d/13/11/05/e2y9yvez.jpg

http://imgur.com/6nrUph9

Continued
http://img.tapatalk.com/d/13/11/05/syju7y2y.jpg

http://imgur.com/CaJpbUt


On 68.7% of the drives that night, the Colts forced the Broncos to start at their own 20 or worse. Those 11 drives accounted for 10 points. The Colts also forced the Broncos into 7 three and outs which accounts for a third of their season average.

Even with a stifling defense, the Broncos managed to score 33 points, 26 of which came without any field position help via special teams or turnovers.

The lowest total the Broncos offense has mustered without help has been 26 points.

Bottom line, the Chiefs need turnovers and an offensive breakthrough to come into Denver and win this game. Even when given favorable field position via a turnover, the Chiefs have converted those opportunities into a TD only 33% of the time.

If this matchup is truly one of Strength vs. Strength, The Broncos offense has proven it can only be bottled up for a matter of time.

Until the Chiefs can prove they can win in more than one phase of the game, the Broncos and their best phase are simply better than the Chiefs and their best phase. If this Broncos defense is coming together like it has shown the past couple of weeks, the Chiefs are in for a lengthy fall from the top.


General consensus from the Donkey fans seems to be that they have very little to worry about and will blow KC out in both games....

[DMAC]

It's going to be a long 2 weeks.

[Rausch]

He does have one good point: we tend to start drives with good field position and do little with it...

[Bowser]

We're a smart, opportunistic football team. It's great that nobody sees us as a threat because we're not putting up numbers that make the fantasy geeks have massive nerdgasms. Let them keep rolling their eyes at us.

Having an offense that does "just enough" to go with this defense is not exactly a bad situation to be in.

[DJ's left nut]

I think he's probably right.

I do think the Broncos 'best phase' is probably a little better than our best phase.
I think the Broncos 'worst phase' is better than our worst phase.

I think the Special Teams are about even; both very very good.

But as I've said all along - the good news is that the Chiefs will get a chance to settle it on the field. Were it me and I were setting the line, I'd have the Chiefs getting 7.5 points and honestly, I'd probably lay the points were I betting. But no amount of talking or analyzing will change what happens in weeks 11 and 13.

[O.city]

If our offense plays the way it did Sunday, we can't beat them.

It's gonna take a full game performance of the first half agains the Browns.

[Dante84]

I'm glad the Colts gave us a buffer game. Lets hope the Chargers do as well, or at least beat them up.

[BlackHelicopters]

Hurry up November 17.

[O.city]

At this point, I don't think the Broncos OL is very good. Thats gonna determine their worth this year, not Mannings arm strength.

[mr. tegu]

One major flaw is that the he seems to wrongly assume that Denver's defense keeps teams playing to their average on offense.

[TambaBerry]

It won't matter, Manning is losing his arm strength. Those ducks are going to be floating around out there all day. It doesn't matter though Denver runs the same plays over and over again.

If its man to man defense Peyton audibles into crossing patterns where their receivers run into the defenders on their way across.

If its zone they run what the play was.

[Garcia Bronco]

At this point, I don't think the Broncos OL is very good. Thats gonna determine their worth this year, not Mannings arm strength.

It's one of the best in the league

[fan4ever]

As much as it hurts to say this, I think the Broncos great offense trumps their poor defense more than our great defense makes up for our poor offense...

[The Bad Guy]

Absolute key to this game is Poe completely manhandling Ramirez.

He collapses that pocket, Manning is fucked.

[notorious]

At this point, I don't think the Broncos OL is very good. Thats gonna determine their worth this year, not Mannings arm strength.

It doesn't need to be very good.



This is the NFL and Manning we are talking about. Holding is welcomed.

[fan4ever]

It doesn't need to be very good.



This is the NFL and Manning we are talking about. Holding is welcomed.

Yep; spot on.

[Anyong Bluth]

He does have one good point: we tend to start drives with good field position and do little with it...

As of a few weeks ago, and it might changed a bit idk, but we were 1st in the league for avg starting position for offense and the D was 1st for opposition starting with the worst starting field position, but I don't think that is a fluke, because our offense and special teams is specifically designed to try to do this even if it takes a few possessions to swing the starting field position.

[Anyong Bluth]

I'm glad the Colts gave us a buffer game. Lets hope the Chargers do as well, or at least beat them up.

At San Diego and at Oakland are vital games, assuming there is a split with Denver, or unless they lose another division game as well.

[Anyong Bluth]

It doesn't need to be very good.



This is the NFL and Manning we are talking about. Holding is welcomed.

Ya, ask this guy about the lack of holding calls...

http://img.tapatalk.com/d/13/11/05/y9ysymyh.jpg

http://chiefconcerns.com/wp-content/uploads/2013/05/haliblood2.jpg

[Rain Man]

I don't understand the chart. I thought it was talking about our yardage on drives, but we probably didn't have a 77 yard TD drive that started on our 38, or a 100 yard TD drive that started on our 20. What am I misreading?

[Anyong Bluth]

I don't understand the chart. I thought it was talking about our yardage on drives, but we probably didn't have a 77 yard TD drive that started on our 38, or a 100 yard TD drive that started on our 20. What am I misreading?

Typo? I don't think that they would be adding on penalty yardage or plays that caused a loss of yards?

Maybe- like the TD that started at the 3 but is a 98 yard score. So, did we have a play that went for -1 yards. Plus add in sacks to it- seems odd, but maybe that's why?

[keg in kc]

I think they blow us out in Denver, and then I think we beat them close at Arrowhead.

[Garcia Bronco]

Absolute key to this game is Poe completely manhandling Ramirez.

He collapses that pocket, Manning is ****ed.

This.

[T-post Tom]

"Inexperienced signal callers?" Does that include Manning, Romo and Vick?

This defense is built to beat Manning and the other jackasses.You know that Reid's coaching staff has had these two games circled since training camp. I suspect that we'll see a lot of new wrinkles in all three phases. (Can't speak to the 4th phase, Mitch. Sorry.) Knock on wood, we should be healthy and have all assets available. If the offense can sustain drives, we'll be good.

Prediction? "Pain."

http://www.sportsgrid.com/wp-content/uploads/2013/10/peyton-manning-arm.jpg

[DaWolf]

I keep reading how the league loves offense and doesn't want to see a team like the Chiefs reach the Super Bowl.

I suspect we'll have a lot of calls go against us Sunday Night. It's going to be tough to win in Denver. We just need to bring it when they come into Arrowhead...

[Tombstone RJ]

As much as it hurts to say this, I think the Broncos great offense trumps their poor defense more than our great defense makes up for our poor offense...

oh hell no, Broncos have no shot, none. The above article is a friggen lie written by a biased media type who doesn't really undestand how great this kc defense is.

[Tombstone RJ]

"Inexperienced signal callers?" Does that include Manning, Romo and Vick?

This defense is built to beat Manning and the other jackasses.You know that Reid's coaching staff has had these two games circled since training camp. I suspect that we'll see a lot of new wrinkles in all three phases. (Can't speak to the 4th phase, Mitch. Sorry.) Knock on wood, we should be healthy and have all assets available. If the offense can sustain drives, we'll be good.

Prediction? "Pain."

http://www.sportsgrid.com/wp-content/uploads/2013/10/peyton-manning-arm.jpg

this, neckbone has no chance.

[T-post Tom]

this, neckbone has no chance.

Peyton after the game, in his civvies...

http://cdn.imnotobsessed.com/wp-content/uploads/snookie_02_wenn5664375.jpg

[Mile High Mania]

Nice, control field position and score lots of points is their key to beating Denver. Mind is blown.

[notorious]

Peyton after the game, in his civvies...

http://cdn.imnotobsessed.com/wp-content/uploads/snookie_02_wenn5664375.jpg

Peyton has nice tits.

[Halfcan]

I keep reading how the league loves offense and doesn't want to see a team like the Chiefs reach the Super Bowl.

I suspect we'll have a lot of calls go against us Sunday Night. It's going to be tough to win in Denver. We just need to bring it when they come into Arrowhead...

worse than the phantom roughing the passer call yesterday when tool flopped like a fish?

[Anyong Bluth]

I keep reading how the league loves offense and doesn't want to see a team like the Chiefs reach the Super Bowl.

I suspect we'll have a lot of calls go against us Sunday Night. It's going to be tough to win in Denver. We just need to bring it when they come into Arrowhead...

Or they will want a close game to showcase 2 teams that have 1 loss between them combined. Payton may be their poster boy, but they want ratings, and Denver vs the only undefeated team left will attract a lot of casual football fans to watch unless the game gets lopsided by more than like l4 points.

My reason for some feeling a bit optimistic about the game stems from having our bye week to heal, rest, added time to prepare- especially when Reid has done phenomenal in games coming off the bye, and Denver should have all they can handle with San Diego because it's not likely going to be a give me win and the division games are almost certain to be crucial for seeding order.

If San Diego can play the style of game they did against the Colts a few weeks ago, they could very well pull out the win. The next question is do you really want to be going into Denver with them coming off a loss and backed into a corner?

[Anyong Bluth]

this, neckbone has no chance.


http://img.tapatalk.com/d/13/11/05/arajame2.jpg





http://us.123rf.com/400wm/400/400/tiero/tiero1102/tiero110200035/8815158-detail-of-neck-x-ray-image-and-red-zone-pain.jpg

[Anyong Bluth]

Nice, control field position and score lots of points is their key to beating Denver. Mind is blown.

Hey its one of your fans that wrote the damn thing.

[Mile High Mania]

Hey its one of your fans that wrote the damn thing.

Nah, my fans are better than that.

[Hammock Parties]

http://img.tapatalk.com/d/13/11/05/arajame2.jpg


http://images3.wikia.nocookie.net/__cb20120919030436/starwars/images/c/c7/Dvbones1.jpg

[A Salt Weapon]

If its man to man defense peyton audibles into crossing patterns where their receivers run into the defenders on their way across.

Which is flagged as a pick against any team not featuring the NFL's darling.

I expect to see extremely one sided officiating against us, whether or not we win is up to us. We've overcome officiating in most of our games to this point. If we can beat denver and the refs in 2 weeks they might leave us alone come playoff time.

[MahiMike]

To this point Alex has done what he's been asked to do. When push comes to shove, he'll heave it down field.

[saphojunkie]

Nah, my fans are better than that.

OP is 100,000,000,000x more informative and well-reasoned than the collected posts of every Bronco poster on this board.

[38yrsfan]

I have a life, job/career, family, many outside interests, etc. Like many Chiefs fans, I've been enjoying Sunday afternoons watching the Chiefs and wow, they are actually playing ball (defense that is) like I remember! The offense is a bit off (lol) but that can be fixed, but the biggest change is in attitude - not BS, hyped toughness but the 'hey you are a professional and do your job like a professional for the whole game' attitude and coaching. Now we just need the offense to get the chemistry down and get some of that old-time Denver BS luck going on that side of the ball. It gave them a gift SB and Chiefs are a much more dignified and noble team than the donks - just look at the Orange Mange, they have more and longer threads about the Chiefs than any other team or topic, even now with coach Fox having had surgery.

Go Chiefs!

[fan4ever]

Which is flagged as a pick against any team not featuring the NFL's darling.

I expect to see extremely one sided officiating against us, whether or not we win is up to us. We've overcome officiating in most of our games to this point. If we can beat denver and the refs in 2 weeks they might leave us alone come playoff time.

Brown's were running that play time and time again...totally ignored...and that was the BROWNS...imagine what the forehead gang is going to be allowed.

[Red Dawg]

Donkeys have a sense of arrogance. They think they will win every game.

[vailpass]

OP is 100,000,000,000x more informative and well-reasoned than the collected posts of every Bronco poster on this board.

Why I oughta...:grr:

[hitchief]

Absolute key to this game is Poe completely manhandling Ramirez.

He collapses that pocket, Manning is ****ed.

YES! Manning hates pressure up the middle in his face. He has no wheels so he likes to escape pressure by stepping up in the pocket. Would love for Poe to step right up into his facemask and light him up a few times.

[hitchief]

Our D really shouldn't be that gassed at this point. The O doesn't score a lot but they do flip the field on a consistent basis and they have controlled the time of clock for us in a lot of these early games (last game aside but that was really on both the O and lack of D). I think the D basically had a bad day as far as getting off the field, which just happens sometimes. They will do better against an opponent that really gets the blood boiling like the Donkeys.

[TambaBerry]

All it takes is one sandwich between Houston and Hali then Peyton is done.

[Wallcrawler]

The key to the game will be Andy Reid vs Andy Reid. Can he overcome his obsession with the passing game in order to fully utilize our best offensive player?

He's going to have to go against his tendencies, and feed Jamaal Charles the football. 25 is the key to defeating the Broncos.

If we go into Denver and Jamaal has 9 carries in the entire first half, I don't see how anything good comes of that.

If we get Charles going on the ground early and often, we have an excellent shot at winning this game.

If we're throwing bullshit flare passes 5yds behind the LOS on first down instead of just feeding 25 the football, then we're going down hard unless the defense can score 3-4 times.

[lcarus]

Time to start the CHUCK WAGON against the Donkeys.

http://wp.streetwise.co/wp-content/uploads/2012/09/jamaal-charles.jpeg

[alanm]

General consensus from the Donkey fans seems to be that they have very little to worry about and will blow KC out in both games.... Doesn't really matter what their fans think.

[RINGLEADER]

Another way to summarize team strengths is to look at how each defense plays.

Only twice (against the Eagles and Redskins) has Denver kept an opponent under their season average for points scored. If you average out their eight games you find that Denver is allowing opponents to score 128.3% of their season averages:

Baltimore - 128.6%
New York - 130.7%
Raiders - 115.4%
Philadelphia - 80.0%
Dallas - 167.8%
Jacksonville - 175.9%
Indianapolis - 145.5%
Washington - 82.7%
Average - 128.3%

Conversely, Kansas City has held every opponent under their season average point performance, with a blended average of points allowed equal to 59.4% of what is normally scored:

Buffalo - 61.9%
Cleveland - 89.0%
Houston - 87.9%
Oakland - 38.5%
Tennessee - 78.7%
New York - 39.8%
Philadelphia - 64.0%
Dallas - 55.9%
Jacksonville - 18.5%
Average - 59.4%

If these stats hold up, Kansas City will exceed their current average of points scored per game (23.9) by 128.3% or approximately 30.7 points. Meanwhile, Denver's average point output (42.9) will be curtailed to 59.4% of their average for an approximate total of 25.5.

So there's your final score if the averages hold up:

Kansas City: 31
Denver: 26

[AussieChiefsFan]

Another way to summarize team strengths is to look at how each defense plays.

Only twice (against the Eagles and Redskins) has Denver kept an opponent under their season average for points scored. If you average out their eight games you find that Denver is allowing opponents to score 128.3% of their season averages.

Conversely, Kansas City has held every opponent under their season average point performance, with a blended average of points allowed equal to 59.4% of what is normally scored.

If these stats hold up, Kansas City will exceed their current average of points scored per game (23.9) by 128.3% or approximately 30.7 points. Meanwhile, Denver's average point output (42.9) will be curtailed by 59.4% for an approximate total of 25.5.

So there's your final score if the averages hold up:

Kansas City: 31
Denver: 26Math DOES respect the Chiefs!

[Hammock Parties]

Another way to summarize team strengths is to look at how each defense plays.

Only twice (against the Eagles and Redskins) has Denver kept an opponent under their season average for points scored. If you average out their eight games you find that Denver is allowing opponents to score 128.3% of their season averages:

Baltimore - 128.6%
New York - 130.7%
Raiders - 115.4%
Philadelphia - 80.0%
Dallas - 167.8%
Jacksonville - 175.9%
Indianapolis - 145.5%
Washington - 82.7%
Average - 128.3%

Conversely, Kansas City has held every opponent under their season average point performance, with a blended average of points allowed equal to 59.4% of what is normally scored:

Buffalo - 61.9%
Cleveland - 89.0%
Houston - 87.9%
Oakland - 38.5%
Tennessee - 78.7%
New York - 39.8%
Philadelphia - 64.0%
Dallas - 55.9%
Jacksonville - 18.5%
Average - 59.4%

If these stats hold up, Kansas City will exceed their current average of points scored per game (23.9) by 128.3% or approximately 30.7 points. Meanwhile, Denver's average point output (42.9) will be curtailed to 59.4% of their average for an approximate total of 25.5.

So there's your final score if the averages hold up:

Kansas City: 31
Denver: 26

What if you account for defensive scoring from the Chiefs?

[Hammock Parties]

Chiefs are averaging 18.4 OPPG

So 128.3% would be 23.6 points.

Denver is averaging 39.6 OPPG.

So 59.4% would be 23.5 points.

Close....we need turnovers.

[007]

Absolute key to this game is Poe completely manhandling Ramirez.

He collapses that pocket, Manning is ****ed.

Poe will be doubled up on.

[lcarus]

Poe will be doubled up on.

Dude gets doubled up on more than Gianna Michaels.

[007]

Chiefs are averaging 18.4 OPPG

So 128.3% would be 23.6 points.

Denver is averaging 39.6 OPPG.

So 59.4% would be 23.5 points.

Close....we need turnovers.

It is Manning. We will get some.

[Hammock Parties]

I wish we could get Romeo for just one game. He does know how to play defense against Manning.

Not sure about Sutton's style. It's been working against awful QBs....not sure if it will work against Manning.

[Phobia]

Strange how stats make it so you don't even have to watch the game actually being played any longer. Denver fans should probably watch NASCAR highlights that night and celebrate.

[007]

I wish we could get Romeo for just one game. He does know how to play defense against Manning.

Not sure about Sutton's style. It's been working against awful QBs....not sure if it will work against Manning.

It worked against Romo and Eli.

[lcarus]

Listen. I've been holding back for long enough but I'm finally gonna come out with it. We're gonna beat the tard sauce out of Denver. I KNOW it. Like, I've seen into the future and I guarantee it will happen. I'd bet my life on it. We're gonna rain sacks on em, we're gonna shit forced fumbles down Peyton Manning's freshly created neckhole. Lightning is gonna come crackling down with the force of ten 3 and outs for Denver in the first quarter. Dogs and cats are gonna fuck and give birth to a creature that looks exactly like the Broncos mascot getting sodomized by a Ron Jeremy/Frankenstein hybrid on PCP and Cialis. And there is NOTHING they can do to stop it from occuring. Colquitt might punt for 2 first downs. Trinidad Holligay is gonna look like a flapjack coming fresh off the grill at a Central Virginia Waffle House on President's Day Eve after Parker jacks him on the opening kickoff return. The fans are gonna cry so much that the field will be flooded with tears, and Noshow Moreno is gonna slip on them and tear his ACL and his ABC. Jack Del Rio is gonna need a stretcher to take him to the local Denver emergency room, where he'll turn out just fine until they get a second opinion and find out he has a rare case of throat cancer. Incurable. Inoperable. 4 months to live tops. Colin Cowherd and Pete Prisco will be forced to adopt a small Polynesian orphan and raise him as a diehard Chiefs fan.

[Tribal Warfare]

If our offense plays the way it did Sunday, we can't beat them.

It's gonna take a full game performance of the first half agains the Browns.

The return team will have to play lights out too.

[lcarus]

I think I just painted a pretty damn clear and realistic portrait of what's going to occur in Denver on that Sunday. The debate and discussion should not continue beyond this point.

[Hammock Parties]

we're gonna shit forced fumbles down Peyton Manning's freshly created neckhole.

http://uranus.ckt.net/~gochiefs/pred.gif

[lcarus]

http://uranus.ckt.net/~gochiefs/pred.gif

This guy gets it. FINALLY somebody gets it. It's like trying to teach Helen Keller how to eavesdrop on this forum sometimes, I swear.

[Hammock Parties]

This guy gets it. FINALLY somebody gets it. It's like trying to teach Helen Keller how to eavesdrop on this forum sometimes, I swear.

when manning comes to arrowhead we're gonna stick him up on the walls with our saliva and watch our children be born by ripping their way out of his chest....

http://i.imgur.com/84hRJAF.jpg

[GOB]

LOL

[salame]

http://cdn2-b.examiner.com/sites/default/files/styles/image_content_width/hash/29/2a/292a63f4a8cb554373531d33dbc05d9a.jpg?itok=CI0BzgOC

[Hammock Parties]

http://cdn2-b.examiner.com/sites/default/files/styles/image_content_width/hash/29/2a/292a63f4a8cb554373531d33dbc05d9a.jpg?itok=CI0BzgOC

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[salame]

http://31.media.tumblr.com/tumblr_lqb8795A171r0pht5o1_r1_400.gif

http://www.finteresting.com/images/posts/big/1356515590257736/alien-vs-cat.jpg

[GOB]

The key to the game will be Andy Reid vs Andy Reid. Can he overcome his obsession with the passing game in order to fully utilize our best offensive player?

He's going to have to go against his tendencies, and feed Jamaal Charles the football. 25 is the key to defeating the Broncos.

If we go into Denver and Jamaal has 9 carries in the entire first half, I don't see how anything good comes of that.

If we get Charles going on the ground early and often, we have an excellent shot at winning this game.

If we're throwing bullshit flare passes 5yds behind the LOS on first down instead of just feeding 25 the football, then we're going down hard unless the defense can score 3-4 times.

I don't necessarily disagree that we need to spend more time setting up the pass

But overall, the Broncos actually have a really good run defense (#4 DVOA). Their problem is their atrocious pass defense (#22 DVOA). Incidentally, their biggest problem in coverage is defending a receiving RB (#26 DVOA). JC will be the X-factor but it might be more as a catcher than a runner.

[HemiEd]

If our offense plays the way it did Sunday, we can't beat them.

It's gonna take a full game performance of the first half agains the Browns.

:spock: wha?

[Mile High Mania]

Based on things I've read, I've learned that Sutton and the Chiefs have just been holding back so they don't provide Denver with anything to work from in preparation for the game. And, offensively - KC has done a damn good job so far. I know all you have to do now is flip the switch - we're effed. :LOL:

Should be a good game, I expect a close contest, but in the end ... 33-20 Broncos.

[Anyong Bluth]

Based on things I've read, I've learned that Sutton and the Chiefs have just been holding back so they don't provide Denver with anything to work from in preparation for the game. And, offensively - KC has done a damn good job so far. I know all you have to do now is flip the switch - we're effed. :LOL:

Should be a good game, I expect a close contest, but in the end ... 33-20 Broncos.


Alright alright alright!

http://img.tapatalk.com/d/13/11/05/upynyjy6.jpg

http://img.tapatalk.com/d/13/11/05/epaqasap.jpg

[TomBarndtsTwin]

http://cdn2-b.examiner.com/sites/default/files/styles/image_content_width/hash/29/2a/292a63f4a8cb554373531d33dbc05d9a.jpg?itok=CI0BzgOC

Dirty pussy.

[CallMeSquidwad]

With how close Denver is to KC and with how crazed our fans are right now I would suspect Mile High having quite a bit of red spread throughout it, I mean if that many travel to see us play in Buffalo this will be insane. I'm becoming very hopeful perhaps to a fault, but I just have a good feeling about this one. We have been the team of destiny this year, I mean every possible 50/50 ball has gone our way basically, our QB still doesn't have a fumble(****ing remarkable), and our 4th quarter dominance. Although this will be the mentally toughest team we've played yet, so it will also be the toughest fourth quarter we have had thus far, but I still have a good feeling about this one fellas :arrow:

[SeeingRed]

The Broncos just lost their head coach for at least a month....including the 2 games vs Kansas City. This matters.

[Mile High Mania]

The Broncos just lost their head coach for at least a month....including the 2 games vs Kansas City. This matters.

Enh, you could go either way with this one, no?

Offensively, Fox has little impact and defensively, that's primarily JDR. I like Fox, but I don't see him as the pivotal catalyst that makes this team click.

[MotherfuckerJones]

Enh, you could go either way with this one, no?

Offensively, Fox has little impact and defensively, that's primarily JDR. I like Fox, but I don't see him as the pivotal catalyst that makes this team click.

Ya losing Andy Reid for us would be a lot worse than you losing fox

[Mile High Mania]

Ya losing Andy Reid for us would be a lot worse than you losing fox

My hope is that JDR is better with his decisions on when to and when not to throw the challenge flag.

[TomBarndtsTwin]

I would expect Denver will start trying to run the ball a lot more, giving JDR's previous head coaching experience in Jax.

That might not be a bad thing for Denver, considering it would allow their defense to get off the field a little more, and take some of the pressure off Pey Pey, who struggles throwing the ball as the weather gets colder.

The question is can the Donkos run the ball consistently with the rotation of backs they have and keep from turning the ball over??

[Hog's Gone Fishin]

Listen. I've been holding back for long enough but I'm finally gonna come out with it. We're gonna beat the tard sauce out of Denver. I KNOW it. Like, I've seen into the future and I guarantee it will happen. I'd bet my life on it. We're gonna rain sacks on em, we're gonna shit forced fumbles down Peyton Manning's freshly created neckhole. Lightning is gonna come crackling down with the force of ten 3 and outs for Denver in the first quarter. Dogs and cats are gonna **** and give birth to a creature that looks exactly like the Broncos mascot getting sodomized by a Ron Jeremy/Frankenstein hybrid on PCP and Cialis. And there is NOTHING they can do to stop it from occuring. Colquitt might punt for 2 first downs. Trinidad Holligay is gonna look like a flapjack coming fresh off the grill at a Central Virginia Waffle House on President's Day Eve after Parker jacks him on the opening kickoff return. The fans are gonna cry so much that the field will be flooded with tears, and Noshow Moreno is gonna slip on them and tear his ACL and his ABC. Jack Del Rio is gonna need a stretcher to take him to the local Denver emergency room, where he'll turn out just fine until they get a second opinion and find out he has a rare case of throat cancer. Incurable. Inoperable. 4 months to live tops. Colin Cowherd and Pete Prisco will be forced to adopt a small Polynesian orphan and raise him as a diehard Chiefs fan.

So , you're saying we got a chance ????

[Tombstone RJ]

It is Manning. We will get some.

yes yes, quite so, Manning is a turnover machine...

[Tombstone RJ]

Listen. I've been holding back for long enough but I'm finally gonna come out with it. We're gonna beat the tard sauce out of Denver. I KNOW it. Like, I've seen into the future and I guarantee it will happen. I'd bet my life on it. We're gonna rain sacks on em, we're gonna shit forced fumbles down Peyton Manning's freshly created neckhole. Lightning is gonna come crackling down with the force of ten 3 and outs for Denver in the first quarter. Dogs and cats are gonna **** and give birth to a creature that looks exactly like the Broncos mascot getting sodomized by a Ron Jeremy/Frankenstein hybrid on PCP and Cialis. And there is NOTHING they can do to stop it from occuring. Colquitt might punt for 2 first downs. Trinidad Holligay is gonna look like a flapjack coming fresh off the grill at a Central Virginia Waffle House on President's Day Eve after Parker jacks him on the opening kickoff return. The fans are gonna cry so much that the field will be flooded with tears, and Noshow Moreno is gonna slip on them and tear his ACL and his ABC. Jack Del Rio is gonna need a stretcher to take him to the local Denver emergency room, where he'll turn out just fine until they get a second opinion and find out he has a rare case of throat cancer. Incurable. Inoperable. 4 months to live tops. Colin Cowherd and Pete Prisco will be forced to adopt a small Polynesian orphan and raise him as a diehard Chiefs fan.

that's the spirit!

[TomBarndtsTwin]

yes yes, quite so, Manning is a turnover machine...

Against the Racial Slurs he was.

Better hope thats not a sign of things to come . . .

[Anyong Bluth]

I would expect Denver will start trying to run the ball a lot more, giving JDR's previous head coaching experience in Jax.

That might not be a bad thing for Denver, considering it would allow their defense to get off the field a little more, and take some of the pressure off Pey Pey, who struggles throwing the ball as the weather gets colder.

The question is can the Donkos run the ball consistently with the rotation of backs they have and keep from turning the ball over??

JDR isn't going to be calling the offense, and I don't know if he'll be stepping on Peyton's toes changing their style.

[Tombstone RJ]

Against the Racial Slurs he was.

Better hope thats not a sign of things to come . . .

yah bra, for sure!

[TomBarndtsTwin]

JDR isn't going to be calling the offense, and I don't know if he'll be stepping on Peyton's toes changing their style.

I know, but I thought maybe his 'influence' could persuade Pey Pey and allow their offense to become a little more balanced, which ultimately would make Denver a better team. It certainly would help out that abortion of a defense.

But, I'm in all favor of the status quo regarding Denver. That recipe has proven it can only get you so far . . .

[Tombstone RJ]

I know, but I thought maybe his 'influence' could persuade Pey Pey and allow their offense to become a little more balanced, which ultimately would make Denver a better team. It certainly would help out that abortion of a defense.

But, I'm in all favor of the status quo regarding Denver. That recipe has proven it can only get you so far . . .

the defense is getting better but you are right, Broncos have no shot against the vaunted kc machine.

[TomBarndtsTwin]

the defense is getting better but you are right, Broncos have no shot against the vaunted kc machine.

Either you're an idiot, can't read, or haven't bothered to read through the thread.

[Tombstone RJ]

Either you're an idiot, can't read, or haven't bothered to read through the thread.

:rolleyes:

[Easy 6]

I wonder which opponents underling wrote this, let me guess...

[Pasta Little Brioni]

Based on things I've read, I've learned that Sutton and the Chiefs have just been holding back so they don't provide Denver with anything to work from in preparation for the game. And, offensively - KC has done a damn good job so far. I know all you have to do now is flip the switch - we're effed. :LOL:

Should be a good game, I expect a close contest, but in the end ... 33-20 Broncos.

PileHighButthurtMania!!!

[Pasta Little Brioni]

Either you're an idiot, can't read, or haven't bothered to read through the thread.

He's more than an idiot fella

[Mile High Mania]

I know, but I thought maybe his 'influence' could persuade Pey Pey and allow their offense to become a little more balanced, which ultimately would make Denver a better team. It certainly would help out that abortion of a defense.

But, I'm in all favor of the status quo regarding Denver. That recipe has proven it can only get you so far . . .

Broncos rank 17th in rushing yds per game at 117.9
Chiefs rank 14th in rushing yds per game at 119.0

That's a whopping 1.1 rushing yard per game difference. :rolleyes:

Now, here is a fascinating set of numbers. Both Denver and Kansas City have a combined 570 "passing and rushing attempts".

DEN = 234 rushing attempts (41%) / 336 passing attempts (59%)
KC = 255 rushing attempts (45%) / 315 passing attempts (55%)

Combined rushing/passing yards...
Denver has 3,731
KC has 2,856 (or less than Manning has passing)

Call me crazy all you like, but I'm content with the balance that Denver has on offense... as well as the production in yards and points.

You guys are fine with a badass defense and an anemic offense, while I'm fine with quite the opposite. This is why I can't wait for the DEN/KC games.

[Pasta Little Brioni]

Difference is teams don't give a fuck if Slowshon gets the ball, while they quake in fear of Charles busting loose.

[Mile High Mania]

Difference is teams don't give a **** if Slowshon gets the ball, while they quake in fear of Charles busting loose.

There's no denying that Charles is the better RB.

Charles - 725 rushing / 4.3 avg / 6 rushing TD / 389 receiving / 2 TD
Moreno - 456 rushing / 4.2 avg / 8 rushing TD / 287 receiving / 1 TD

So far this season, Moreno (in a rotation) has overachieved expectations and played well.

And, I believe that NONE of the Broncos' RBs (aside from maybe CJ Anderson) should have more than a dozen touches a game, they like to fumble to much ... Moreno found himself in the outhouse because of that, Ball and Hillman have proven to be no more secure with the ball. Moreno hasn't screwed the pooch yet... but, because of the historical issues, he'll never get a pass from me. I fear him and don't trust him.

[Anyong Bluth]

Not that it's some mystery solved, but given the Broncos history of turnovers - primarily fumbles though interceptions have been on an uptick, and everyone around here is aware of the vital role takeaways has played its part in our success.

I keep hearing this supposition that of course KC can't keep getting takeaways because the stats say that this category is mere chance and will even out. So often this is a point mentioned as to why some people are predicting some sort of string of losses because a "correction" is due at some point?

Smith has a history of limiting his turnovers- does that mean it's assumed he will all of a sudden start turning the ball over left and right because it's always said that turnovers tend to even themselves out over time?

I understand it's a category that has a lot more variability. If X player has a history of fumbling the ball or Y player excels at forcing fumbles or getting interceptions- then why wouldn't it stand to reason that a team as a whole would have a high probability of being + - or neutral in anticipated turnovers?

Think of it this way: each player on the roster, or if you want, just use the starters, but you can assign a value say from +5 to -5 based upon their turnover tendency. Obviously the scale will hover around neutral- as it's going to coincide with the idea of the 50/50 leveling out of turnovers.


A guy like Knile Davis may have score of -3 based upon his fumble history

Alex Smith would give you a score of like +3 or +4. Yes, he has turnovers but it's a comparative to his frequency against others average at his position.

Dontari Poe would be like a +1 or +2.

Houston and Hali around +2 or +3.

Cooper would be like a +3 or +4

Most lineman would likely be neutral, but you could look at their play and contribution to plays that resulted in a turnover.

For argument purpose, Fisher may get a -1 or -2 score because of his play, whereas Albert, who is rated a top 5 pass blocker, maybe a +2, but most line guys would still hover between +1 and -1.

Then you'd have a raw score to tally up and it would give you a Turnover Takeaway Tendency, or a
"T3" profile.

[Mile High Mania]

A mathematical formula ... I will just stick with the math on points scored.

[REDHOTGTO]

.

[TEX]

Difference is teams don't give a **** if Slowshon gets the ball, while they quake in fear of Charles busting loose.

I agree but for some reason Jamaal hasn't broken a long one & taken it to the house all year.

[Cannibal]

You guys are fine with a badass defense and an anemic offense, while I'm fine with quite the opposite. This is why I can't wait for the DEN/KC games.

Bullshit. Nearly the entire board has either complained about, is worried about, or has questioned our offensive production.

[Cannibal]

.

Too soon for that one, my friend.