The role of luck in sports

[DaFace]

When you really think about it, an enormous amount of an NFL team's success comes from luck. Yes, solid drafting, FA moves, coaching, etc. all push you in the right direction, but there's clearly not a lot of true skill involved in things like plucking Tom Brady out of the 6th round of the draft or having the #1 pick on the year that Andrew Luck is available.

It's the same thing both within a season (having an easy vs. hard schedule) and even during a given game (injuries galore yesterday).

If I were to arbitrarily pull a number out of my ass, I'd say that only around 60% of a team's success in the NFL is under the control of the team's management and 40% just has to fall in place. (You can debate the exact proportions, but the point still stands.)

So...

Does luck make the game more fun? Or does it just suck? On the one hand, it makes games we end up winning because of good fortune a lot of fun, but man...it's tough to invest so much time over a season to a game that comes down to nothing but a weighted coin flip in the end.

[Rain Man]

The fact that records typically range from 2-14 to 14-2 in most seasons would imply that luck is not a huge factor between franchises. Talent trumps luck.

Within a franchise, luck may move a team a couple of games up or down in the win column. That's enough to have a notable impact on their season. Within a game, luck obviously plays a role, but per my theory above, it may impact the actual outcome of a game a couple of times per season.

The big luck wildcard, though, is injuries. I would count this as a different category than luck in play execution. Bad luck with an injury changes the talent pool, which produces a much bigger swing.

So in order, I would estimate the impacts as being:

Talent - 60%
Luck as it relates to injuries - 25%
Luck as it relates to play execution - 15%

I guess talent should include a luck aspect for talent acquisition, per the initial post. I'm not sure how to estimate the weight of that.

[007]

all I know is the Chiefs don't have luck. ROFL

[BigCatDaddy]

I'd say he played a huge role yesterday.

[Deberg_1990]

Indy tanks a season and gets Lucky with Luck

Chiefs tank a season when there is shit for impact players.

[DaFace]

Indy tanks a season and gets Lucky with Luck

Chiefs tank a season when there is shit for impact players.

I read the other day that the NBA is considering eliminating the whole draft order based on record thing entirely and just going with a rotation to keep teams from throwing games at the end of the season. Honestly, I'm not sure why that's not more of an issue.

[Deberg_1990]

I read the other day that the NBA is considering eliminating the whole draft order based on record thing entirely and just going with a rotation to keep teams from throwing games at the end of the season. Honestly, I'm not sure why that's not more of an issue.

Understandable. There are a ton of NBA teams tanking this year.

I truly think Indy tanked in 2011 as well, although we will never know. Smart move if they did.

[kcxiv]

Indy tanks a season and gets Lucky with Luck

Chiefs tank a season when there is shit for impact players.

The chiefs did t even try to tank the season they tried to win they just sucked that bad. Colts Intentionally sucked that bad. They made an effort to stay shitty by keeping Curtis painter in there. They didn't even try to sign a vet off the street to start or trade for one.


Chiefs do it the legit way and get screwed. Colts, did it intentionally and get rewarded. That's more then luck. That's something else.

[scho63]

"Luck is what happens when preparation meets opportunity"

Nuff said

[GloucesterChief]

The Colts tanking didn't have anything to do with luck. I am pretty sure they did it on purpose. Of course, they can't admit that but it was on purpose.

[SAUTO]

The Colts tanking didn't have anything to do with luck. I am pretty sure they did it on purpose. Of course, they can't admit that but it was on purpose.

actually it had everything to do with luck.

[Deberg_1990]

The Colts tanking didn't have anything to do with luck.

Ok

[007]

actually it had everything to do with Luck.FYP. it had everything to do with Luck. capital L

[SAUTO]

FYP. it had everything to do with Luck. capital L

same difference to me

[ChiefsCountry]

I read the other day that the NBA is considering eliminating the whole draft order based on record thing entirely and just going with a rotation to keep teams from throwing games at the end of the season. Honestly, I'm not sure why that's not more of an issue.

NBA is a different breed. One player can change so much in basketball compared to any other sport.

[KChiefs1]

all I know is the Chiefs don't have luck. ROFL

Suck for Luck.

[007]

same difference to meI know.

[Dayze]

Luck is what happens when you win two meaningless games at the end of the year that makes you draft at #5 instead of #1.

[Rain Man]

NBA is a different breed. One player can change so much in basketball compared to any other sport.

I think football has become that.

Would you trade the entire Chiefs' roster for a young Tom Brady or Peyton Manning? I might.

[Sannyasi]

The fact that records typically range from 2-14 to 14-2 in most seasons would imply that luck is not a huge factor between franchises. Talent trumps luck.

Within a franchise, luck may move a team a couple of games up or down in the win column. That's enough to have a notable impact on their season. Within a game, luck obviously plays a role, but per my theory above, it may impact the actual outcome of a game a couple of times per season.

The big luck wildcard, though, is injuries. I would count this as a different category than luck in play execution. Bad luck with an injury changes the talent pool, which produces a much bigger swing.

So in order, I would estimate the impacts as being:

Talent - 60%
Luck as it relates to injuries - 25%
Luck as it relates to play execution - 15%

I guess talent should include a luck aspect for talent acquisition, per the initial post. I'm not sure how to estimate the weight of that.

Over the course of a season talent wins out enough times that the good teams usually have a good record and vice versa. However in any individual game luck plays an absolutely critical factor.

The playoffs in particular are a real crapshoot. The closer the teams become in terms of talent the more the outcome is determined by chance. We see this every year.

EDIT: And I'm not saying there's anything wrong with that. Its fun to have varied outcomes. That's the excitement of a single elimination playoff system. It would be boring to crown the best team using statistics such as DVOA or something like that. But the role played by variance in a single 60 minute contest has to be acknowledged.

[cdcox]

52.5% of NFL outcomes are determined by luck.

http://www.advancednflstats.com/2007/08/luck-and-nfl-outcomes-3.html

[DaFace]

52.5% of NFL outcomes are determined by luck.

http://www.advancednflstats.com/2007/08/luck-and-nfl-outcomes-3.html

That's just depressing to see that it's not just my perception. We're basically doing the equivalent of rooting for a guy in a poker game. Sure, there's some skill involved, but it really just depends on whether you are getting good cards.

(And the Chiefs have had a combination of bad cards and not knowing what to do with the few good cards we DO get for years.)

[cdcox]

That's just depressing to see that it's not just my perception. We're basically doing the equivalent of rooting for a guy in a poker game. Sure, there's some skill involved, but it really just depends on whether you are getting good cards.

(And the Chiefs have had a combination of bad cards and not knowing what to do with the few good cards we DO get for years.)

I suspect quite a bit of our 9-0 start this year was good cards.

[Demonpenz]

Chiefs faced 6 back up qb's in a row that is lucky

[Hoopsdoc]

The chiefs did t even try to tank the season they tried to win they just sucked that bad. Colts Intentionally sucked that bad. They made an effort to stay shitty by keeping Curtis painter in there. They didn't even try to sign a vet off the street to start or trade for one.


Chiefs do it the legit way and get screwed. Colts, did it intentionally and get rewarded. That's more then luck. That's something else.

This is just wrong. They signed Kerry Collins of the street and he got hurt. Painter was a bitter Bill draft pick who'd been with the team for 2 years. After Collins got hurt, Polians ego was the reason they stuck with PaINTer.

Ultimately, that ego is what got him fired.

There was no "tanking" that season. Painter was just that abysmally bad and Polians Montana sized ego kept him from making a change until it was too late. Remember, that team actually finished 2-1 with Dan Orlovsky.

[Dayze]

Chiefs started the game with a J-2 off-suit.

[Gravedigger]

Quarterback... Wait, what?