PredictionMachine.com AFC West Preview

[htismaqe]

I don't know if any of you follow Paul Bessire. He used to be on Soren Petro's show a lot - he's created a piece of software called the Predictilator that basically plays every game 50K times and predicts the results. It's not foolproof of course but it's pretty interesting and the betting record over the years I believe is pretty good.

Here's his preview of the AFC West.

http://www.predictionmachine.com/2014-NFL-super-bowl-odds-picks-preview#AFW

Kansas City Chiefs
Power Rank: 24
Offensive Rank: 21
Defensive Rank: 21
Division Standing: 3
2013 Playoff Teams on Schedule: 7
Projected 2014 Playoff Teams on Schedule: 7
Playoff Probabilities: 16.1%
Super Bowl Win%: 0.2%
Biggest Strength: Defensive Front 7
Greatest Weakness: Passing Game
Most Important Offensive Player: Eric Fisher
Most Important Defensive Player: Marcus Cooper
Fantasy Stud: Jamaal Charles
Fantasy Dud: Dwayne Bowe
Fantasy Sleeper: Travis Kelce

[DMAC]

What did it predict last year?

[ptlyon]

Power rank of 24? Like 24th in the league?

[Three7s]

Power rank of 24? Like 24th in the league?
Yep, and they're predicting a record of 7-9, which is on par with what most of us think.

[ChiTown]

Yep, and they're predicting a record of 7-9, which is on par with what most of us think.

6-10 to 9-7

[ptlyon]

Yep, and they're predicting a record of 7-9, which is on par with what most of us think.

ROFL gonna be a GREAT year...

[CanadianChief]

Eric F!@#ing Fisher?????

[chefsos]

Eric F!@#ing Fisher?????I believe he's in the "The Guy Who Needs To Get His Shit Together For This Team To Have Any Chance Of Exceeding This Ranking" column.

[Hog's Gone Fishin]

stupid predictionmachine is stupid

[KCUnited]

Probably my favorite NFL segment on either of the local stations. And that sounds about right, imo.

[In58men]

Greatest weakness passing game. Yeah look at our QB. ROFL ROFL ROFL ROFL ROFL

[Rain Man]

Power rank of 24? Like 24th in the league?

24th in the division. They're still working on their system.

[TEX]

What did it predict last year?

Exactly...BUT to that, many here (myself included) predicted 10-6 and a WC berth. We got pretty darn close.

This year Im in the 7-9 crowd. Just too many questions at multiple areas (Secondary, Wr's, OL) for them all to work out.

In fact, Id be more surprised if the Chiefs finish above .500 this year, than I was last season coming off 2-14. We'll see...

[jd1020]

Most Important Offensive Player: Eric Fisher

:hmmm:

[Simply Red]

looks about right

[lcarus]

This gonna be wrong. Wrong wrong wrong. And they're dumb. Dumb dumb dumb.

[chefsos]

This gonna be wrong. Wrong wrong wrong. And they're dumb. Dumb dumb dumb.And their moms dress them funny. Funny funny funny.

[BossChief]

Lots of factors are up in the air for the upcoming schedule that will heavily impact the success of the team as a whole.

How wil Eric Fisher do at LT?
Will Kelce provide any impact?
How will the rest of the OL shake out and perform?
Will anyone step up at WR?
Will Alex Smith play the way he did the second half of the season, or the first half?
Will Eric Berry provide impact as a single high safety?
Will the pass rush show up like the first half of last year or the second half?
Will Jamaal Charles stay healthy?
Will Marcus Cooper take the next step in his development?
Will anyone step up at the other safety spot in sub packages (that we ran 60% of the time last year)
Will any of the rookies provide the offense a spark?
Will the team hit the ground running after a year under their belt in the offensive and defensive systems?
Will Alex SMith trust himself to make tough throws, or play it safe?


For the first time in a long time, Im not really sure if this team is closer to 5-11 or 11-5...remember, last year we all thought we had a tough schedule on the books for 2013 until things started to play out...

[Reerun_KC]

Lots of factors are up in the air for the upcoming schedule that will heavily impact the success of the team as a whole.

How wil Eric Fisher do at LT?
Will Kelce provide any impact?
How will the rest of the OL shake out and perform?
Will anyone step up at WR?
Will Alex Smith play the way he did the second half of the season, or the first half?
Will Eric Berry provide impact as a single high safety?
Will the pass rush show up like the first half of last year or the second half?
Will Jamaal Charles stay healthy?
Will Marcus Cooper take the next step in his development?
Will anyone step up at the other safety spot in sub packages (that we ran 60% of the time last year)
Will any of the rookies provide the offense a spark?
Will the team hit the ground running after a year under their belt in the offensive and defensive systems?
Will Alex SMith trust himself to make tough throws, or play it safe?


For the first time in a long time, Im not really sure if this team is closer to 5-11 or 11-5...remember, last year we all thought we had a tough schedule on the books for 2013 until things started to play out...

I have a feeling he will do what the HC wants him to do...

Since we don't know exactly what's going on between Reid, Smith and game planning all we can do is speculate and throw shit at the wall.

We have 0 clue to what is actually happening, except those guys that record the "TV broadcast" and call it game film, tape or quote PFF stats.. Now those guys are bad asses and we should really respect their opinions...

[htismaqe]

What did it predict last year?

Kansas City Chiefs
Power Rank: 25
Offensive Rank: 16
Defensive Rank: 17
Division Standing: 3
2012 Playoff Teams on Schedule: 5
Projected 2013 Playoff Teams on Schedule: 4
Projected Record: 7.7 - 8.3
Playoff Probabilities: 31.1%
Super Bowl Win%: 0.6%
Biggest Strength: Explosive Playmakers (Offense and Defense)/Easy Schedule
Greatest Weakness: Defensive Line
Most Important Offensive Player: Alex Smith
Most Important Defensive Player: Justin Houston
Fantasy Stud: Jamaal Charles
Fantasy Dud: Jonathan Baldwin
Fantasy Sleeper: Travis Kelce

[htismaqe]

:hmmm:

Left tackles are often in that spot because of the way the simulation works. If they suck, the entire offense pretty much goes to hell.

[ptlyon]

Movin on uuuuuppppp...

[Pablo]

What?

Doesn't he know we're going 19-0??