Tribal Warfare
09-23-2014, 06:35 PM
The Microsoft Engine That Nailed The World Cup Is Predicting Every NFL Game — Here Are Its Picks For Week 4 (http://finance.yahoo.com/news/microsoft-engine-nailed-world-cup-204019983.html)
Microsoft's Cortana went 10-6 in its NFL picks in Week 3.
Cortana, the Windows phone virtual assistant that's using a Bing Predicts algorithm to predict every NFL game, is now 29-19 on the year. It's a good record but not a great one.
Las Vegas favorites are 27-21 overall (not against the spread).
Nate Silver's ELO model is now 31-17. It's beating Cortana after correctly picking 12 of 16 Week 3 games.
Cortana uses all the data you'd expect to go into one of these prediction models — home-away effect, historical data, and offensive and defensive advanced stats — but it also uses a public sentiment variable that pulls in Facebook and Twitter data.
Cortana and Vegas differed on two games in Week 2, and each won one of them. Cortana wrongly picked the Browns to beat the Ravens. Vegas wrongly had the Bills as the favorite over the Chargers.
Here are Cortana's picks for Week 4 (Vegas betting lines as of Tuesday afternoon are in parentheses):
New York Giants vs. Washington Redskins — Redskins win, 64.4% chance (Redskins -3.5)
Green Bay Packers vs. Chicago Bears — Bears win, 58.2% chance (Packers -1.5)
Buffalo Bills vs. Houston Texans — Bills win, 53.3% chance (Texans -3)
Tennessee Titans vs. Indianapolis Colts — Colts win, 68.6% chance (Colts -7.5)
Carolina Panthers vs. Baltimore Ravens — Ravens win, 65.9% chance (Ravens -3)
Detroit Lions vs. New York Jets — Lions win, >50% chance (Lions -1.5)
Tampa Bay Buccaneers vs. Pittsburgh Steelers — Steelers win, 78.9% chance (Steelers -7.5)
Miami Dolphins vs. Oakland Raiders — Dolphins win, 58.2% chance (Dolphins -4)
Jacksonville Jaguars vs. San Diego Chargers — Chargers win, 83% chance (Chargers -13)
Atlanta Falcons vs. Minnesota Vikings — Falcons win, 56.6% chance (Falcons -3)
Philadelphia Eagles vs. San Francisco 49ers — 49ers win, 58.2% chance (49ers -5.5)
New Orleans Saints vs. Dallas Cowboys — Cowboys win, 53.3% chance (Saints -3)
New England Patriots vs. Kansas City Chiefs — Patriots win, 67.4% chance (Patriots -3.5)
Cortana and Vegas disagree on three games: Saints-Cowboys, Bills-Texans, and Bears-Packers.
Here are Cortana's results so far this year:
Week 1 — 10-6
Week 2 — 9-7
Week 3 – 10-6
Total — 29-19
Microsoft's Cortana went 10-6 in its NFL picks in Week 3.
Cortana, the Windows phone virtual assistant that's using a Bing Predicts algorithm to predict every NFL game, is now 29-19 on the year. It's a good record but not a great one.
Las Vegas favorites are 27-21 overall (not against the spread).
Nate Silver's ELO model is now 31-17. It's beating Cortana after correctly picking 12 of 16 Week 3 games.
Cortana uses all the data you'd expect to go into one of these prediction models — home-away effect, historical data, and offensive and defensive advanced stats — but it also uses a public sentiment variable that pulls in Facebook and Twitter data.
Cortana and Vegas differed on two games in Week 2, and each won one of them. Cortana wrongly picked the Browns to beat the Ravens. Vegas wrongly had the Bills as the favorite over the Chargers.
Here are Cortana's picks for Week 4 (Vegas betting lines as of Tuesday afternoon are in parentheses):
New York Giants vs. Washington Redskins — Redskins win, 64.4% chance (Redskins -3.5)
Green Bay Packers vs. Chicago Bears — Bears win, 58.2% chance (Packers -1.5)
Buffalo Bills vs. Houston Texans — Bills win, 53.3% chance (Texans -3)
Tennessee Titans vs. Indianapolis Colts — Colts win, 68.6% chance (Colts -7.5)
Carolina Panthers vs. Baltimore Ravens — Ravens win, 65.9% chance (Ravens -3)
Detroit Lions vs. New York Jets — Lions win, >50% chance (Lions -1.5)
Tampa Bay Buccaneers vs. Pittsburgh Steelers — Steelers win, 78.9% chance (Steelers -7.5)
Miami Dolphins vs. Oakland Raiders — Dolphins win, 58.2% chance (Dolphins -4)
Jacksonville Jaguars vs. San Diego Chargers — Chargers win, 83% chance (Chargers -13)
Atlanta Falcons vs. Minnesota Vikings — Falcons win, 56.6% chance (Falcons -3)
Philadelphia Eagles vs. San Francisco 49ers — 49ers win, 58.2% chance (49ers -5.5)
New Orleans Saints vs. Dallas Cowboys — Cowboys win, 53.3% chance (Saints -3)
New England Patriots vs. Kansas City Chiefs — Patriots win, 67.4% chance (Patriots -3.5)
Cortana and Vegas disagree on three games: Saints-Cowboys, Bills-Texans, and Bears-Packers.
Here are Cortana's results so far this year:
Week 1 — 10-6
Week 2 — 9-7
Week 3 – 10-6
Total — 29-19