538 created a taxonomy of QBs

[the Talking Can]

https://espnfivethirtyeight.files.wordpress.com/2015/01/lopez-davis-qbs-1.png?w=1024

A more thorough analysis makes use of the complete set of observations. The distribution of each quarterback’s QBR can offer a more thorough understanding of performance. When we look at quarterbacks this way, we find some players who consistently minimize bad games and others who can be brilliant one week and horrible the next, regularly handicapping their teams.3

Comparing each quarterback’s distribution of game-by-game QBR can be done using a density curve, which is used to estimate the fraction of a player’s performances that occurred in a given interval — in this case, the probability that a quarterback had a QBR of a specific number in any individual game.4 We looked at the 45 quarterbacks with at least 10 starts in the past two years or 50 career starts since 2006, and found that the quarterbacks stratified into 10 categories.5

http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/the-10-types-of-nfl-quarterbacks/

[Hog's Gone Fishin]

Cliff Notes= Alex Smiff Sux

[the Talking Can]

Cliff Notes= Alex Smiff Sux

any way you slice it

[BossChief]

No excuse not to have drafted Bridgewater.

[Donger]

I wouldn't mind seeing a stuffed Manning.

[Discuss Thrower]

I wouldn't mind seeing a stuffed Manning.

That's taxidermy.

[Donger]

That's taxidermy.

Right, sorry. I read the title wrong.

[Rain Man]

They included Donovan McNabb? And David Garrard? And Brett Favre? When was this made?

[RealSNR]

No excuse not to have drafted Bridgewater.

That's what I was most pissed about on draft day last year.

The "no QB in the first round good enough to be drafted is ever available for us" excuse is over. There was a QB, he was certainly good enough, and instead we took an OLB who runs away from contact.

[Hootie]

the only thing that makes me laugh is the 'uh oh' Derek Carr graphic.

We literally had people on this site that watched him play this year *allegedly* and thought he projected as a future franchise QB and thought that he was showing glimpses of greatness this year.

When, in reality, he was GOD FUCKING AWFUL.

So, yeah.

[alpha_omega]

I guess 538 didn't see the Broncos game last weekend?

[Hootie]

I guess 538 didn't see the Broncos game last weekend?

I guess judging a QB by a 1 game sample when he has about 30% of the arm he had in his prime a year after he beat Tom Brady in the postseason with 60% of the arm he had in his prime is a really good way to judge a QB on a career spectrum.

I never thought of it that way.

[Pablo]

Can't be correct. I've read here on CP that Smith is the same caliber as a lott of the guys listed ahead of him.

[Hootie]

Can't be correct. I've read here on CP that Smith is the same caliber as a lott of the guys listed ahead of him.

I've put him in the Stafford / Dalton / Cutler tier since day 1. Can't convince me he's still not there, at least.

[Jimmya]

Bridgewater second tier? dang!

[ILChief]

I guess judging a QB by a 1 game sample when he has about 30% of the arm he had in his prime a year after he beat Tom Brady in the postseason with 60% of the arm he had in his prime is a really good way to judge a QB on a career spectrum.

I never thought of it that way.

Is this career or right now? Luck is better than Fivehead and Matt Ryan

[ILChief]

I guess 538 didn't see the Broncos Last 8 games of the season

FYP

[Saul Good]

They've got Bridgewater and Schaub in the tier above Roethlisberger, Rivers, and Wilson?

Nice work.

[Just Passin' By]

They are grouping players based on ESPN's QBR rating.

They have Kaepernick, Bridgewater and Schaub above Roethlisberger, Rivers and Wilson.


In short, it's another bullshit 538 article.

[Skyy God]

Bridgewater second tier? dang!

85 QB rating last year. Anything in the 80's is great for a rookie.

[the Talking Can]

They are grouping players based on ESPN's QBR rating.

They have Kaepernick, Bridgewater and Schaub above Roethlisberger, Rivers and Wilson.


In short, it's another bullshit 538 article.

tell us more about how great Matt Cassel is

[Amnorix]

I guess judging a QB by a 1 game sample when he has about 30% of the arm he had in his prime a year after he beat Tom Brady in the postseason with 60% of the arm he had in his prime is a really good way to judge a QB on a career spectrum.

I never thought of it that way.


You mean when he had a home game and a receiving corps of the Thomas Boys, Decker, and Welker, with Moreno carrying the ball, against Brady's receiving corps of Edelman, Austin Collie (out of football in 2014), HooMan, Aaron Dobson, and Mike Mulligan? And then Aqib Talib got hurt in the second quarter?

Yeah, he was awesomez beating Brady! It was ALL HIM!

(let's start a whole new BRady vs. Manning thread. That's NEW!)

[Amnorix]

They included Donovan McNabb? And David Garrard? And Brett Favre? When was this made?


:shrug:

We looked at the 45 quarterbacks with at least 10 starts in the past two years or 50 career starts since 2006,

[Amnorix]

They've got Bridgewater and Schaub in the tier above Roethlisberger, Rivers, and Wilson?

Nice work.

They are grouping players based on ESPN's QBR rating.

They have Kaepernick, Bridgewater and Schaub above Roethlisberger, Rivers and Wilson.


In short, it's another bullshit 538 article.


Yeah, maybe. This one seems more worthwhile -- certainly much less speculative.

One question, does QBR include anything for a QB who piles up yards on running plays? If so, Wilson's value increases dramtically, of course.

And if you look at the graphs, while that first group is "ahead" of the second group -- and I agree that makes no sense -- the margin seems small, and seems to be more of a "they have fewer bad games" than a "they are better".

In other words, it MAY be that the first group may just be a little bit more consistent than the second group. And consistency is definitely something that Big Ben lacks at times.

But yeah, it requires some close analysis. I don't think anyone would put Kaepernick, Schaub and Bridgewater ahead of Big Ben, Rivers and Wilson.

[the Talking Can]

you can compare/contrast curves for all QBs here:

https://michaellopez.shinyapps.io/my_app/

[Hootie]

You mean when he had a home game and a receiving corps of the Thomas Boys, Decker, and Welker, with Moreno carrying the ball, against Brady's receiving corps of Edelman, Austin Collie (out of football in 2014), HooMan, Aaron Dobson, and Mike Mulligan? And then Aqib Talib got hurt in the second quarter?

Yeah, he was awesomez beating Brady! It was ALL HIM!

(let's start a whole new BRady vs. Manning thread. That's NEW!)
Not enough weapons excuse, never woulda guessed it

[Mr. Flopnuts]

43rd in!

[Amnorix]

Not enough weapons excuse, never woulda guessed it


The truth. It can be damned inconvenient at times, I know.

[Rain Man]

:shrug:

We looked at the 45 quarterbacks with at least 10 starts in the past two years or 50 career starts since 2006,


Oh.

Okay.

(Goes off to get a drink.)

[Hootie]

The truth. It can be damned inconvenient at times, I know.

12.6-13.4
8-16

not enough weapons

[Just Passin' By]

The truth. It can be damned inconvenient at times, I know.

Why bother? He knows that he's full of shit.

12.6-13.4
8-16

not enough weapons

And there's the proof.

[Hootie]

Tom Brady lost to Peyton last year because Talib got hurt. Yep.

['Hamas' Jenkins]

The problem with that analysis is that it assumes QBR is an excellent tool for evaluating QB play. It's not.

[O.city]

What am I missing with Bridgewater? Just seems meh to me.

[MahiMike]

They've got Bridgewater and Schaub in the tier above Roethlisberger, Rivers, and Wilson?

Nice work.

'zactly.

[BossChief]

What am I missing with Bridgewater? Just seems meh to me.

Dudes had some great games with garbage all around him.

Bad line
Worse receivers than ours
No AP

Kid goes through progressions like a vet

And he doesn't have a vagina

[O.city]

Dudes had some great games with garbage all around him.

Bad line
Worse receivers than ours
No AP

Kid goes through progressions like a vet

And he doesn't have a vagina

Admittedly, I didn't watch a whole lot of Viking games, but when I did he just didn't impress. I'll have to watch more.

[BossChief]

Unlike Alex Smith, he has already shown to have the ability to "take what the defense gives you" and isn't afraid to actually do that.

It's a shame Cordarelle Patterson has hands of stone because Bridgewster put some passes right on the money for that kid and he consistently blew it.

Teddy is gonna be a really good one when he gets some players around him.

[BigMeatballDave]

Matt Schaub is a 2nd tier? LMAO

[Sweet Daddy Hate]

Matt Schaub is a 2nd tier? LMAO

Roth is "on the cusp"!

Retardery.

[Dave Lane]

Somewhere between 34 and 40 seems about right.

[smith11]

What am I missing with Bridgewater? Just seems meh to me.

he is sooo good that hed put aj Jenkins an Frankie Hammond in the pro bowl

[ILChief]

I'm not saying alex smith is elite, but he is better than many of the QBs in higher tiers

[BigMeatballDave]

I wouldn't mind seeing a stuffed Manning.

LMAO

[Marcellus]

I thought Derick Carr was the next Joe Montana?

[Marcellus]

Matt Schaub is a 2nd tier? LMAO

Kind of ruins the entire discussion.

[Eleazar]

There are too many silly ratings to poke fun of, but I enjoyed seeing Schaub and Krapernick rated the same as Luck.

Stick to politics ROFL