1st Round Mock - February

[kccrow]

Time to release my initial first round mock of the season... Input/Criticism welcome.

01. Tampa Bay Buccaneers - QB Jameis Winston - Florida State
02. Tennessee Titans - DL Leonard Williams - USC
03. Jacksonville Jaguars - DE Shane Ray - Missouri
04. Oakland Raiders - WR Amari Cooper - Alabama
05. Washington Redskins - DE Dante Fowler - Florida
06. New York Jets - QB - Marcus Mariota - Oregon
07. Chicago Bears - DT - Danny Shelton - Washington
08. Atlanta Falcons - DE - Randy Gregory - Nebraska
09. New York Giants - SS - Landon Collins - Alabama
10. St. Louis Rams - OT - Andrus Peat - Stanford
11. Minnesota Vikings - WR - DeVante Parker - Louisville
12. Cleveland Browns - WR Kevin White - West Virginia
13. New Orleans Saints - DE Alvin Dupree - Kentucky
14. Miami Dolphins - DT - Malcolm Brown - Texas
15. San Francisco 49ers - DE - Arik Armstead - Oregon
16. Houston Texans - OT - Ereck Flowers - Miami
17. San Diego Chargers - RB Melvin Gordon - Wisconsin
18. Kansas City Chiefs - WR - Devin Smith - Ohio State
19. Cleveland Browns (f/BUF) - DT Eddie Goldman - Florida State
20. Philadelphia Eagles - CB Trae Waynes - Michigan State
21. Cincinnati Bengals - CB PJ Williams - Florida State
22. Pittsburgh Steelers - LB Vic Beasley - Clemson
23. Detroit Lions - OT Brandon Scherff - Iowa
24. Arizona Cardinals - LB Benardrick McKinney - Mississippi State
25. Carolina Panthers - OL - La'el Collins - LSU
26. Baltimore Ravens - CB Marcus Peters - Washington
27. Dallas Cowboys - DT Michael Bennett - Ohio State
28. Denver Broncos - OG A.J. Cann - South Carolina
29. Indianapolis Colts - DE Eli Harold - Virginia
30. Green Bay Packers - DT Jordan Phillips - Oklahoma
31. Seattle Seahawks - WR Jaelen Strong - Arizona State
32. New England Patriots - CB - Quinten Rollins - Miami (Ohio)

[CleveSteve]

I'd be surprised if Miami takes an OT in the first. They should be getting Albert back and James was really good as arookie. They need aguard, defensive tackles and linebackers.

Detroit I would also be surprised to see go OT in the first, but they could think Scherff was too good to pass up and put Iowa guys on either side, but I think they must be thinking hard about DL, especially if they lose both Fairley and Suh.

Carolina on the other hand needed to take aleft tackle last year and didn't. They have to take one this year. In this scenario Erving is still available. I know everyone wants him to be acenter but he's apretty good LT, too.

JMO.

[redshirt32]

If Gordon, Beasley, Waynes, Scherff are on the board when we draft they will need more phones in the draft room to answer calls for teams wanting to move up,

This draft has depth like last year but not near the first rd talent,
If Gordon gets past SD look for teams to move up to get him, or several other players.

I feel like the Chiefs are in a good spot this year and players will fall that other teams have on there radar. The top 3 WR and OT will be off the board when we draft.
ILB and CB are thin, the last of the top five pass rushers will also be there when we are on the board. Some teams will reach for them we should take advantage of that this draft.

[spanky 52]

Wouldn't be upset with Smith but if CB Wayne is still on the board thats the way I'd go. Prefer a playmaker this year.

[Chief Roundup]

That is quite the reach to take Devin Smith. Most mocks and rankings show him going in the 3rd round.
I also can't imagine us passing on the best CB, ILB, OLB, a top OT for Devin Smith.

[kccrow]

I'd be surprised if Miami takes an OT in the first. They should be getting Albert back and James was really good as arookie. They need aguard, defensive tackles and linebackers.

Detroit I would also be surprised to see go OT in the first, but they could think Scherff was too good to pass up and put Iowa guys on either side, but I think they must be thinking hard about DL, especially if they lose both Fairley and Suh.

Carolina on the other hand needed to take aleft tackle last year and didn't. They have to take one this year. In this scenario Erving is still available. I know everyone wants him to be acenter but he's apretty good LT, too.

JMO.

You know, I actually forgot they had Albert haha. No shit. I dunno what I was thinking there. I don't know if they really need a DT in round 1 if they re-sign Odrick. I do agree they need linebackers. They will likely cut Wallace or Hartline to free up space, so WR could become a need. I'll re-work that one.

I didn't pick Scherff as an OT, I picked him as a LG for Detroit. I don't know if this kid will be drafted as a tackle and I think he falls the same way Reiff did.

Good note on Carolina, but in this scenario there were no first round OTs left for them so I took a guy that they need on defense and would make that unit pretty sick. And no, TJ Clemmings is not a first round caliber player. Cam Erving doesn't have the movement skills to play LT in the pros, maybe RT but better off staying at C.

Good reply Steve.

[kccrow]

That is quite the reach to take Devin Smith. Most mocks and rankings show him going in the 3rd round.
I also can't imagine us passing on the best CB, ILB, OLB, a top OT for Devin Smith.

Third round? Most major publications, that is the ones that are consistently among the most accurate in the "industry," have him in the top 50 players overall. Anyhow not going to argue only the Chiefs pick in this scenario and I'm not likely to change it soon.

[kccrow]

Wouldn't be upset with Smith but if CB Wayne is still on the board thats the way I'd go. Prefer a playmaker this year.

I really don't like Waynes that much. He's too grabby and doesn't transition well. He doesn't break on short routes well at all, leaving ground and easy catches. He could become real good if he does correct some major flaws. There's a reason they didn't match him up against Devin Smith when they played Ohio State, because he can't handle that type of quickness. Still, Michael Thomas was able to torch him a few times on hitches because Waynes gives up ground on those types of routes. He also had a hard time sticking with Corey Smith, when Smith wasn't being a decoy, on quick slants. I'm not worried about Waynes' ability vertically, its my worry about NFL receivers carving him up in the short game. He couldn't cover Antwaan Goodley on the short routes when they played Baylor either. He really couldn't cover anyone for Baylor all that well, but Goodley torched him.

[kccrow]

If Gordon, Beasley, Waynes, Scherff are on the board when we draft they will need more phones in the draft room to answer calls for teams wanting to move up,

This draft has depth like last year but not near the first rd talent,
If Gordon gets past SD look for teams to move up to get him, or several other players.

I feel like the Chiefs are in a good spot this year and players will fall that other teams have on there radar. The top 3 WR and OT will be off the board when we draft.
ILB and CB are thin, the last of the top five pass rushers will also be there when we are on the board. Some teams will reach for them we should take advantage of that this draft.

I think they are in a good position to trade, but I generally don't mock any trades this early. RBs rarely go in the top 20 picks these days. However, I could see a team moving up for a guy like Beasley. I think Scherff falls, tha't my opinion. If a team loves Waynes, which I do not, then sure they could move up because the CB class isn't strong at the top, nor anywhere for that matter.

[Chief Roundup]

Third round? Most major publications, that is the ones that are consistently among the most accurate in the "industry," have him in the top 50 players overall. Anyhow not going to argue only the Chiefs pick in this scenario and I'm not likely to change it soon.

I went and checked and you are correct he has moved up to around the mid to late 40s.
I still think there are much better players available by the mock in the OP.

[The Franchise]

I'd rather have McKinney.

[O.city]

Devin smith is a mike wallace type wr. I don't think he has #1 wr upside, but he's got a good skill set that would contribute right away

[RunKC]

I just don't see the value of picking Devin Smith round 1.
2nd rd WR's include Phillip Dorsett, Nelson Agholor, Justin Hardy and Tyler Lockett are the same type of fast WR's.

Can you really say that a LB as good as McKinney will be there later? Doubt Perryman or maybe Anthony (he's being mocked rd 1 now) are there.
And you can't seriously tell me an OL (desperate need) the caliber of Scherff will be available after round 1.

The disparity at WR is very little in rd 1 and 2 in terms of what we need (YAC guys). I'm going with either McKinney or Scherff here.

[Saccopoo]

If they take Devin Smith over Brandon Scherff or PJ Williams I'll fucking go ballistic. (Throw McKinney in there as well if you want considering the state of affairs of the ILB position for the Chiefs.)

I know you have a massive, throbbing, vein popping hard-on for the guy, but jesus...at #18?

[Bufkin]

If they take Devin Smith over Brandon Scherff or PJ Williams I'll ****ing go ballistic. (Throw McKinney in there as well if you want considering the state of affairs of the ILB position for the Chiefs.)

I know you have a massive, throbbing, vein popping hard-on for the guy, but jesus...at #18?
:spock:

[Al Bundy]

I would rather the Bucs take Shane Ray than Winston. Winston just has something about him I don't like. Besides being too deliberate and having questionable footwork.

[kccrow]

Here's what I'm going to say about Devin Smith, and I'm not changing the mock to the Chiefs. He's going to be very high on Andy Reid's radar guaranteed, and the Chiefs already have been talking to the kid.

Probably time for you guys to stop reading scouting reports from season's past and start watching the tape on Devin Smith. He runs great routes, for starters. His drop issues went away and has been better focused. He has developed into a guy that is very difficult to press off the line. He was outstanding running routes during Senior Bowl week, something scouts attested to. He's not just a deep ball threat.

The problem in Columbus was more a product of how they targeted receivers. A lot of run and deep ball stuff and QBs that weren't very good at reading defenses and finding wide open receivers. They often used Devin Smith to his ultimate strength, playing deep. I can't fault a coach for going with something that torches a defense for a TD a game and usually at least one more big play a game. When you can essentially put 2 TDs a game on the board because of one guy's skill set, you use that to your advantage.

I will concede that he is an inconsistent to even bad blocker in the run game, but it isn't for effort. He just is not very good at it and could use more coaching on what angles to take to seal in the run game.

I have no idea what one guy was talking about in a scouting report I read when he said Smith was taken out often in "11 personnel." I don't think the guy knows what 11 personnel is. Smith was in the game most of the time, unless he just got done running a handful of 9's in a row. Three receiver set, damn straight he was a primary option.

This little article has a few videos. http://www.bleedinggreennation.com/2015/2/12/7952701/2015-nfl-draft-profile-devin-smith-ohio-state-wide-receiver

Watch that terrible hitch in the Wisconsin game at about the 1:50 mark in the video. Watch that terrible slant he ran at about 0:57 in the Illinois game. He also ran a terrible goal-line corner route at about the 1:53 mark in that Illinois game. He's so bad in the underneath game that the first few plays of that Michigan State tape were just horrendous.

Here also is a beautifully written piece that explains a bunch of this well that I don't have the time right now to similarly reproduce: http://seahawksdraftblog.com/ohio-states-devin-smith-is-special-should-be-a-first-rounder

The bottom line is that people think Devin Smith can't run any other routes besides a 9 because they seen him make so many of those plays for the Buckeyes. The problem is they aren't watching the other plays, including plays he just didn't get the ball thrown to him. That doesn't mean Smith can't run any other routes. In fact, Smith runs pretty damn crisp routes and gets separation on pretty much every play. He isn't the greatest hands catcher ever, but he isn't a drop machine like he seems to be made out to be.

From a numbers perspective, you have a guy that is probably going to run about a 4.35 40-yard, 1.52 10-yard split, a 6.85 in the 3-cone and a 4.25 shuttle while likely jumping 40" in the vertical. Essentially, he should test exactly like Mike Wallace.

I have three receivers ranked legitimately ahead of Smith in Cooper, White, and Parker. After those three there is a little drop off to Smith, but Smith is better than several ranked closest to him. His current biography reads like Emmanuel Sanders' did.

Altogether, Smith is going to be a fairly high pick because he can abuse defensive backs. He's much like Mike Wallace. He's got the potential, and attitude, to be a great receiver. I'm aware not everyone will like Smith, but I don't doubt for a second that the Chiefs' brass will. If they think they can mould him into what he's capable of becoming, they won't hesitate.

What puzzles me is that people think he doesn't fit Andy Reid and Alex Smith. Fact is, he fits perfectly. He's not an easy cover on the routes Reid loves to run, and to think Reid doesn't call deep shots, then they only need to reference some of the routes Donnie Avery ran for KC.

Anyhow, that's what I have to say about that pick. I'm also focused on 31 other teams and what projects well to them in this mock scenario. I did update the OP to reflect some bonehead moves I did make to a couple of teams.

[CleveSteve]

If you like Devin Smith, you should love Nelson Agholor. Agholor is a first rounder to me.

[RunKC]

Fair point Crow. I just don't know what the hell we are going to do with this OL.

[O.city]

Fair point Crow. I just don't know what the hell we are going to do with this OL.

Free agency and the later rounds?

I'm starting to think I'd prefer them go something other than wr in round 1 unless white falls.

Too many good wrs later that really fit what the chiefs need

[RunKC]

Free agency and the later rounds?

I'm starting to think I'd prefer them go something other than wr in round 1 unless white falls.

Too many good wrs later that really fit what the chiefs need

I would be looking to steal whatever RT the Cowboys don't bring back in Parnell/Free. Both did a solid job.

Not sure who else in FA at RT would be a good option? Bulaga is about to get $$$ so I doubt we go for him.

[O.city]

I would be looking to steal whatever RT the Cowboys don't bring back in Parnell/Free. Both did a solid job.

Not sure who else in FA at RT would be a good option? Bulaga is about to get $$$ so I doubt we go for him.

If they can resign hudson (or not kush can play) they for sure need a LG.

That's gotta be a must. A rt is close, but between stephenson and allen, you'd think they could get adequate play there.

There's also going to be guys available who can be atleast adequate at this spots foe cheap, which would be a huge upgrade to what they had

[RunKC]

If we do that plan, I'd love to draft one of Laken Tomlinson or AJ Cann.

Tomlinson was awesome at the Senior Bowl. Held Danny Shelton at bay in the 1v1's. Big fan of this kid.

[O.city]

I'd prefer they got a lg in free agency

[RunKC]

Well Jeff Allen had a decent preseason playing 99 snaps. He had a bad game vs Carolina though.

Hard to tell how he'll do at RT but he sure as hell has the frame for an OT at 6'4" 307 lbs (hopefully more strength this year) and 33 1/2 inch arm length.

I'd be all for Clint Boling begin signed. Still would draft a G in the mid rounds in that situation.

[Sorter]

Here's what I'm going to say about Devin Smith, and I'm not changing the mock to the Chiefs. He's going to be very high on Andy Reid's radar guaranteed, and the Chiefs already have been talking to the kid.

Probably time for you guys to stop reading scouting reports from season's past and start watching the tape on Devin Smith. He runs great routes, for starters. His drop issues went away and has been better focused. He has developed into a guy that is very difficult to press off the line. He was outstanding running routes during Senior Bowl week, something scouts attested to. He's not just a deep ball threat.

The problem in Columbus was more a product of how they targeted receivers. A lot of run and deep ball stuff and QBs that weren't very good at reading defenses and finding wide open receivers. They often used Devin Smith to his ultimate strength, playing deep. I can't fault a coach for going with something that torches a defense for a TD a game and usually at least one more big play a game. When you can essentially put 2 TDs a game on the board because of one guy's skill set, you use that to your advantage.

I will concede that he is an inconsistent to even bad blocker in the run game, but it isn't for effort. He just is not very good at it and could use more coaching on what angles to take to seal in the run game.

I have no idea what one guy was talking about in a scouting report I read when he said Smith was taken out often in "11 personnel." I don't think the guy knows what 11 personnel is. Smith was in the game most of the time, unless he just got done running a handful of 9's in a row. Three receiver set, damn straight he was a primary option.

This little article has a few videos. http://www.bleedinggreennation.com/2015/2/12/7952701/2015-nfl-draft-profile-devin-smith-ohio-state-wide-receiver

Watch that terrible hitch in the Wisconsin game at about the 1:50 mark in the video. Watch that terrible slant he ran at about 0:57 in the Illinois game. He also ran a terrible goal-line corner route at about the 1:53 mark in that Illinois game. He's so bad in the underneath game that the first few plays of that Michigan State tape were just horrendous.

Here also is a beautifully written piece that explains a bunch of this well that I don't have the time right now to similarly reproduce: http://seahawksdraftblog.com/ohio-states-devin-smith-is-special-should-be-a-first-rounder

The bottom line is that people think Devin Smith can't run any other routes besides a 9 because they seen him make so many of those plays for the Buckeyes. The problem is they aren't watching the other plays, including plays he just didn't get the ball thrown to him. That doesn't mean Smith can't run any other routes. In fact, Smith runs pretty damn crisp routes and gets separation on pretty much every play. He isn't the greatest hands catcher ever, but he isn't a drop machine like he seems to be made out to be.

From a numbers perspective, you have a guy that is probably going to run about a 4.35 40-yard, 1.52 10-yard split, a 6.85 in the 3-cone and a 4.25 shuttle while likely jumping 40" in the vertical. Essentially, he should test exactly like Mike Wallace.

I have three receivers ranked legitimately ahead of Smith in Cooper, White, and Parker. After those three there is a little drop off to Smith, but Smith is better than several ranked closest to him. His current biography reads like Emmanuel Sanders' did.

Altogether, Smith is going to be a fairly high pick because he can abuse defensive backs. He's much like Mike Wallace. He's got the potential, and attitude, to be a great receiver. I'm aware not everyone will like Smith, but I don't doubt for a second that the Chiefs' brass will. If they think they can mould him into what he's capable of becoming, they won't hesitate.

What puzzles me is that people think he doesn't fit Andy Reid and Alex Smith. Fact is, he fits perfectly. He's not an easy cover on the routes Reid loves to run, and to think Reid doesn't call deep shots, then they only need to reference some of the routes Donnie Avery ran for KC.

Anyhow, that's what I have to say about that pick. I'm also focused on 31 other teams and what projects well to them in this mock scenario. I did update the OP to reflect some bonehead moves I did make to a couple of teams.


http://i.imgur.com/VxRlHwz.jpg


Found some A-22. Should have some thoughts here in a few weeks or so.

[Saccopoo]

Free agency and the later rounds?

I'm starting to think I'd prefer them go something other than wr in round 1 unless white falls.

Too many good wrs later that really fit what the chiefs need

Vince Mayle is every bit as good as Kevin White.

[kccrow]

Found some A-22. Should have some thoughts here in a few weeks or so.

If you have the ability to share, I'd love to see it. I'm going almost exclusively off of watching every Buckeyes' game his entire career. I haven't broken down an A-22, but I'd love to see more of what you can't always see on regular game angles.

[O.city]

Vince Mayle is every bit as good as Kevin White.

Uh no.

[Saccopoo]

Uh no.

Yeah he is.