John Dorsey's Big Board

[Direckshun]

What a scoop for us here in DraftPlanet. Yours truly just got John Dorsey's leaked big board for the 1st rounder.

This is assuming the Chiefs do nothing more than MOVE UP three spots or TRADE DOWN three spots. As a result, all unrealistic picks are out of consideration.

John Dorsey's 1st round big board:

1. Trae Waynes
2. Trae Waynes
3. Trae Waynes

Seriously, no player in this draft better fits what Dorsey likes in a position more than Trae Waynes does at corner. Waynes plays extremely aggressive and could be a flag machine in the NFL, but he's got so many physical tools that I'm sure the Chiefs fully believe they could transform him into a lockdown CB.

4. Cedric Ogbuehi
5. T.J. Clemmings

You're talking about tackles with incredible physical tools that need considerable technique work. Ogbuehi is pretty much exactly what Dorsey likes in the size/athleticism/arm length department, and Clemmings isn't quite as thick, but is just as fine everywhere else.

6. Alvin Dupree

The Chiefs don't particularly need a passrusher, but Dupree is such a rare athlete, still new to the position, with incredible upside. The Chiefs desperately value athleticism, and Dupree ran a 4.56 at 270 lbs.

7. DeVante Parker
8. Dorial Green-Beckham

The Chiefs need to boost their WR corps, and both of these WRs have at least a CHANCE to drop to around #15. Parker is probably desperately valued by the Chiefs, with his great athleticism and YAC ability that the Chiefs will need with Alex Smith under center. DGB less so, but has irresistable physical talents.

9. Andrus Peat

The OT version of Dontari Poe, Peat has some ridonkulous thighs. Peat may drop, and he's got nearly 35" arms, which let's face it, seems to be all Dorsey cares about.

10. Sammie Coates
11. Eddie Goldman

The Chiefs gotta adore both of these players, but I'd say they are unlikely to select either one because of the options ahead of them. Coates dropped a bit for me, from "slam dunk Dorsey 1st rounder" to "dark horse candidate" when he didn't run the low 4.3 I was expecting him to run. Goldman is pretty much perfect as a NT in our defense, but it's unlikely the Chiefs are going to make a 3rd high investment on the DL considering how often they play dime.

12. La'el Collins
13. Cameron Erving

The Chiefs love solid lineman who can play multiple positions. I don't see either one of these guys becoming Chiefs in the 1st, but they do fit what the Chiefs like.

[Nightfyre]

Which is more fun to say: Waynes and Gaines or Gaines and Waynes?

[Direckshun]

http://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/fi/b/b1/Pain_%26_Gain_Teaser_Poster.jpg

[Dante84]

I'd like to see the list of players who aren't going to be in range, so I know not to hope for.

Example. I wanted ODB for a long time and then he blew up, only to break my heart and get selected way before us.

[Direckshun]

Players I consider out of our range:

QB Jameis Winston, Florida State
QB Marcus Mariota, Oregon
RB Melvin Gordon, Wisconsin
WR Amari Cooper, Alabama
WR Kevin White, West Virginia
OT Ereck Flowers, Miami
DT Leonard Williams, USC
DT Danny Shelton, Washington
DE/OLB Dante Fowler Jr., Florida
DE/OLB Vic Beasley, Clemson
DE/OLB Randy Gregory, Nebraska
DE/OLB Shane Ray, Missouri
S Landon Collins, Alabama

[KC native]

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[redshirt32]

Players I consider out of our range:

QB Jameis Winston, Florida State
QB Marcus Mariota, Oregon
RB Melvin Gordon, Wisconsin
WR Amari Cooper, Alabama
WR Kevin White, West Virginia
OT Ereck Flowers, Miami
DT Leonard Williams, USC
DT Danny Shelton, Washington
DE/OLB Dante Fowler Jr., Florida
DE/OLB Vic Beasley, Clemson
DE/OLB Randy Gregory, Nebraska
DE/OLB Shane Ray, Missouri
S Landon Collins, Alabama

Id would say you need to add Trae Waynes to your list and drop S Collins just my two cents.

We have a better shot of getting Parker than Trae Waynes after his combine show, and I believe they said he only gave up two TDs in the last two years of college.

Got to have DBs in this pass happy NFL Waynes moved up big time imo.

[Chief Roundup]

I wouldn't be surprised to see us take La'el Collins in the first, if he falls that far, and then take Erving in the 2cd.

[saphojunkie]

I wouldn't be surprised to see us take La'el Collins in the first, if he falls that far, and then take Erving in the 2cd.

Gross.

[kccrow]

All but like 3 teams drafting ahead of KC need a CB, Waynes isn't going to be there so forget about it.

[Just Passin' By]

I wouldn't be surprised to see us take La'el Collins in the first, if he falls that far, and then take Erving in the 2cd.

Erving might not get out of round one.

[Bowser]

I wouldn't be surprised to see us take La'el Collins in the first, if he falls that far, and then take Erving in the 2cd.

I think they are targeting Collins in the first and Justin Hardy in the second.

[RunKC]

Devin Smith seems like a guy they would love

[Bowser]

Devin Smith seems like a guy they would love

I'll take him over Torrey Smith

[Nightfyre]

Gross.

Honestly, if either of those players are on the board at those respective picks, they are probably the BPA. If we could get Cameron Erving in the second, I would JIMP. Either of those guys could act as a contingency plan in the event Fisher does not hack it at LT.

[ct]

Players I consider out of our range:

QB Jameis Winston, Florida State
QB Marcus Mariota, Oregon
RB Melvin Gordon, Wisconsin
WR Amari Cooper, Alabama
WR Kevin White, West Virginia
OT Ereck Flowers, Miami
DT Leonard Williams, USC
DT Danny Shelton, Washington
DE/OLB Dante Fowler Jr., Florida
DE/OLB Vic Beasley, Clemson
DE/OLB Randy Gregory, Nebraska
DE/OLB Shane Ray, Missouri
S Landon Collins, Alabama

I'd absolutely put OT Brandon Scherff, Iowa up and out of our range, and agree Waynes is out as well.

You really think Gordon locked in before our 1st? Not looking for RB just askin, I don't see it.

[kccrow]

The only places I could see Gordon going ahead of KC is to Minnesota or San Diego, and even then its tough for a RB to go in the 1st round more or less top 20. Gordon is a pretty special talent though.

[RunKC]

Dorsey will draft a WR or CB at 18. That's his philosophy: replace high contract players.

[Chief Roundup]

Dorsey will draft a WR or CB at 18. That's his philosophy: replace high contract players.

If that is the case then it will be OLB or NT.

[DTLB58]

I think they are targeting Collins in the first and Justin Hardy in the second.

Let me ask anyone this; did you see them targeting Dee Ford in the first last year?

This far out or even closer, who was the guy that the planet as a majority was right on that the Chiefs drafted? Berry maybe?
Fisher was pretty much a given in the last couple of days, even though a lot were still hoping for Geno.

Usually, it's someone none of us were considering.

[Bowser]

Let me ask anyone this; did you see them targeting Dee Ford in the first last year?

This far out or even closer, who was the guy that the planet as a majority was right on that the Chiefs drafted? Berry maybe?
Fisher was pretty much a given in the last couple of days, even though a lot were still hoping for Geno.

Usually, it's someone none of us were considering.

Probably. They'll end up with some corner from some school that nobody has ever heard of, or something.

The draft is a complete crapshoot, especially for teams outside the top 6-8.

[Direckshun]

I think, if the Chiefs are looking to replace a 2016 free agent with their 1st rounder, they'll go OL (Jeff Allen, Donald Stephenson), or CB (Sean Smith).

[Discuss Thrower]

http://terezowens-com-uploads.s3.amazonaws.com/2012/04/Roger-Goodell.jpg

[Nightfyre]

I would hope they will have come up with an extension for Sean Smith by the time the draft comes. It makes too much sense not to.

[Direckshun]

Completely agreed. But getting a fucking contract done is like pushing molasses uphill for John Dorsey.

[Saccopoo]

Completely agreed. But getting a ****ing contract done is like pushing molasses uphill for John Dorsey.

No shit.

[planetdoc]

6. Alvin Dupree

The Chiefs don't particularly need a passrusher, but Dupree is such a rare athlete, still new to the position, with incredible upside. The Chiefs desperately value athleticism, and Dupree ran a 4.56 at 270 lbs.

I could see him being the guy if there or if the chiefs could trade up without giving up too much. Dupree could be the longterm replacement for Houston at SOLB while Ford is the longterm replacement for Hali at WOLB.

[kccrow]

I could see him being the guy if there or if the chiefs could trade up without giving up too much. Dupree could be the longterm replacement for Houston at SOLB while Ford is the longterm replacement for Hali at WOLB.

I have my eyes on Davis Tull in round 3, might have moved himself to round 2 with his speed at his pro day. Kid's got some freak athleticism and punished QBs at Chattanooga.

6'2" 244, 42-1/2" vertical, 4.57 forty yard dash, 11'00" broad jump, 26 reps... pretty damn impressive. So is his film.

[Couch-Potato]

can it just be draft time already please!

[Coochie liquor]

can it just be draft time already please!

This, so effing much, this!!

[planetdoc]

TL;DR: Chiefs cant franchise Sean Smith, Dontari Poe, and Justin Houston in 2016. I expect Dorsey to draft their replacements now if possible (specifically CB where he can upgrade with speed).

I think Dorsey drafts guys in the first round to fill future holes (i.e. replace a 2016 UFA).

Defensive back: Hussain Abdullah, Tyvon Branch, Jamell Flemming and Sean Smith are UFA in 2016. Currently, so if Eric Berry. DB is a Huge need. I could see the chiefs even trading up to grab trae Waynes.

Both Parker and Branch have ridiculous speed. So does Phillip Gaines. Sanders Commings has some speed as well. Dorsey acquires speedy dbs.

OLB Hali is playing on essentially a 1yr deal. Same could be said for Houston. If Houston absolutely doesnt want to play in KC, then the chiefs cant do anything about it.

If a premier pass rusher falls to the chiefs, then they have to consider it. Chies may have 2 new starting OLB in 2016 (between Ford and someone else).

NT: Dontari Poe is a FA in 2016. His production has decreased in the last 2yrs at the end of the season (because of over-use). Phillips from Oklahoma makes a lot of sense.

DE: Jay Howard and Devito are free agents in 2016. Unless Catapano shows the ability to start, then the chiefs will need to find a starting DE.

ILB: Both DJ and James Michael Johnson are Free agents in 2016.

[kccrow]

Really agree with your analysis doc. I do disagree about Phillips. I wouldn't take a defensive tackle that has already had back surgeries, no way. However, Eddie Goldman is a guy I wouldn't be aversive to at 18 or in a trade down scenario if it were to play out.

Altogether, I'm leaning more towards the prospect of a highest rated between RT, DB, and DT being the first round pick and filling from there.

[O.city]

Poe isn't a free agent, they've got the fifth year option

[Meatloaf]

TL;DR: Chiefs cant franchise Sean Smith, Dontari Poe, and Justin Houston in 2016. I expect Dorsey to draft their replacements now if possible (specifically CB where he can upgrade with speed).

I think Dorsey drafts guys in the first round to fill future holes (i.e. replace a 2016 UFA).

Defensive back: Hussain Abdullah, Tyvon Branch, Jamell Flemming and Sean Smith are UFA in 2016. Currently, so if Eric Berry. DB is a Huge need. I could see the chiefs even trading up to grab trae Waynes.

Both Parker and Branch have ridiculous speed. So does Phillip Gaines. Sanders Commings has some speed as well. Dorsey acquires speedy dbs.

OLB Hali is playing on essentially a 1yr deal. Same could be said for Houston. If Houston absolutely doesnt want to play in KC, then the chiefs cant do anything about it.

If a premier pass rusher falls to the chiefs, then they have to consider it. Chies may have 2 new starting OLB in 2016 (between Ford and someone else).

NT: Dontari Poe is a FA in 2016. His production has decreased in the last 2yrs at the end of the season (because of over-use). Phillips from Oklahoma makes a lot of sense.

DE: Jay Howard and Devito are free agents in 2016. Unless Catapano shows the ability to start, then the chiefs will need to find a starting DE.

ILB: Both DJ and James Michael Johnson are Free agents in 2016.

Doc, I agree with Crow.....very nice assessment. Just goes to show that the Chiefs could go anywhere with their selections this year. Anyway, very well thought out post.

[planetdoc]

I do disagree about Phillips. I wouldn't take a defensive tackle that has already had back surgeries, no way.

his back concerns are a legitimate point. Interestingly enough that was also one of the reasons that the chiefs passed on John Henderson to select Ryan Sims instead.

http://www.bigcatcountry.com/2011/4/23/2128503/jaguars-top-10-draft-picks-john-henderson
There was concern with Henderson pre-draft that he'd have chronic back problems, but those never seemed to surface

I have no problem with Phillips if his medical checks out ok. At times he dominated in college.
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Poe isn't a free agent, they've got the fifth year option

interesting. Rotoworld (http://www.rotoworld.com/player/nfl/7422/dontari-poe) shows this: 2016: Free Agent
as does overthecap. http://overthecap.com/player/dontari-poe/1842/
and sportrac. http://www.spotrac.com/nfl/kansas-city-chiefs/dontari-poe/

nfl.com does mention a 5th yr option. (http://www.nfl.com/news/story/09000d5d82ad3884/article/dontari-poe-kansas-city-chiefs-strike-contract)
The Chiefs will also hold a fifth-year option, a standard component of first round contracts in the new collective bargaining agreement.

[kccrow]

his back concerns are a legitimate point. Interestingly enough that was also one of the reasons that the chiefs passed on John Henderson to select Ryan Sims instead.

http://www.bigcatcountry.com/2011/4/23/2128503/jaguars-top-10-draft-picks-john-henderson


I have no problem with Phillips if his medical checks out ok. At times he dominated in college.
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I don't disagree about the talent. There are many that consider him a first round talent if the medical issues check out. I'd consider him on that borderline of 1-2. Even if those issues check out, there will be a time that they eventually take their toll and make the player useless. The only real question isn't if, but how soon. Fortunately for Henderson, he enjoyed a longer career than expected and was fairly outstanding his first 5 years in the league. In a league that sees teams turn their rosters every 4-5 years anyway, it might not be a bad investment.

[buddha]

Talent doesn't trump chronic back injuries. Knees can come back after surgery...backs are jacked up forever. That's the one area that I wouldn't take any risks with.

[RunKC]

Jalen Collins is a guy who I think Dorsey would have in his top 10. He's better than Waynes IMO.

Waynes is fast but not quick. His 3 cone was 7+ while Collins was 6.77.

6 1 1/2 203 lbs
32 1/8 arms
9 3/4 hands

This guy is the best measurable CB in the draft. Yes he's only started 10 games, but he's played in a lot of others and I think he would be a great fit in our system.

[Chiefnj2]

Which prospects played well at the Senior Bowl and then tested well at the combine. That'll be who Dorsey takes.

[Saccopoo]

Which prospects played well at the Senior Bowl and then tested well at the combine. That'll be who Dorsey takes.

Shrine Game:

Tre McBride
Zach Vigil (no combine, but excellent pro day)
John Miller

Senior Bowl:

Tyler Lockett, WR
La'el Collins, OL
David Johnson, RB
Laken Tomlinson, OL
Henry Anderson, DL
Eric Rowe, DB

[Saccopoo]

Jalen Collins is a guy who I think Dorsey would have in his top 10. He's better than Waynes IMO.

Waynes is fast but not quick. His 3 cone was 7+ while Collins was 6.77.

6 1 1/2 203 lbs
32 1/8 arms
9 3/4 hands

This guy is the best measurable CB in the draft. Yes he's only started 10 games, but he's played in a lot of others and I think he would be a great fit in our system.

Not really.

Eric Rowe
First Team Freshman All-American, 3 x All-Conference
47 Starts

6'1"
205 lb.
40: 4.45
Bench: 19 reps
Vertical: 39"
Broad: 125"
3 Cone: 6.70 seconds
20 Shuttle: 3.97 seconds
60 Shuttle: 11.48 seconds

In fact, I just saw that Dane Brugler or CBS Sports just moved Rowe up into the first round of his latest mock.

At this point, I'd be willing to wager that Rowe goes before Collins in the draft.

[planetdoc]

agree on Eric Rowe.

Dorsey is big on analytics.
Here are players that fit: (https://www.reddit.com/r/NFL_Draft/comments/31cdb3/best_math_rushers_in_the_2015_class/)

pass rushers:
Low Risk 1:
Vic Beasley
Randy Gregory
These were players who had a twitch under 1.1 as well as a sub 7 second 3 cone.

Low Risk 2
Alvin Dupree
Owa Odighizuwa
These were players who had explosive power of over 1.05

As for other positions:

RB Standouts
David Johnson (Holy shit. Not as explosive as I would like, but super fast and agile. Puts him as a Low Risk 1 candidate)
Malcolm Brown (Super Agile/Great twitch and strong Speed score)

DB Standouts
Eric Rowe (Great Twitch and Agility, Super speed, Very explosive)
Byron Jones (We all knew his measurables. They just look even better here. His Twitch is nuts [looks bad because 10 yard split isn't factored in]. I'm surprised that his agility is negative, though.)
Trae Waynes (Shockingly, the worst measured Twitch of the CBs. Awful agility.)

LB Standouts
Ben Heeney (144.44 Speed, .77 Twitch, 5.20 AGI, 6.68 3-cone) I'm very impressed with Heeney's game. The only question was his athleticism. To me, this shows that he has more than enough. Only question is his explosiveness.

WR Standouts
Kenny Bell - I'm surprised that Bell is consistently one of the most athletic and explosive receivers in the class. What appears on tape is his reliability, although he was a decent returner. Some team is going to get a steal with him.
JJ Nelson - I was shocked that JJ Nelson was considered to not be explosive by this metric. Or agile. Even his speed is considered about average. For someone who was such an electric returner, that just surprised me. No matter his size.
Keith Mumphery - An interesting prospect that no one really paid much attention to.

O-Line Standouts
TJ Clemmings - He's almost a force player!
Ali Marpet - He's exactly the super-athlete that we thought he was.
Mitch Morse - Definitely an interesting prospect. A lot of people want him to switch to a guard at the next level. What this tells me is he would likely do well in either a zone scheme or a power scheme which should really help his stock.

TE Standouts
Blake Bell - Could be a huge value late. Incredibly athletic and that shows in his change of direction. I think he's more explosive than his numbers show. It will be interesting to see how he develops.

[Saccopoo]

Heeney led college football in the dubious statistic of missed tackles. The guy, attempting to make the play, runs by the play - a lot.