Career Leaders In Yards Per Carry

[Tribal Warfare]

Career Leaders In Yards Per Carry (Era-Adjusted) (http://www.footballperspective.com/career-leaders-in-yards-per-carry-era-adjusted/)
by Chase Stuart

In 2008, Jamaal Charles had 67 carries and averaged 5.33 yards per carry. Those 67 carries represent 5% of Charles’ career attempts to date (excluding playoffs). That season, the NFL league average was 4.20 yards per carry, which means Charles was 1.12 (after rounding) YPC above average in 2008, or 1.12 YPC above average on 5% of his career carries.

In ’09, Charles had 190 carries, representing 15% of his career YPC. He averaged 5.89 YPC, and the league average was 4.24, which means Charles was 1.65 YPC above average for 15% of his career carries.

In 2010, those numbers were 230, 18%, 6.38, and 4.21, so Charles was 2.17 YPC above league average on 18% of his career carries.

I performed that analysis for every season of Charles’ career — and every other player in NFL history — to determine each player’s career YPC average relative to league average. The table below shows the 200 running backs (by default, only the top 10 are shown) in pro football history with the most carries. The table is sorted by YPC over league average. Here’s how to read it. Jamaal Charles ranks 1st in YPC over league average. His first year was 2008 and his last year (so far) was 2014. For his career, Charles has 1,249 career rush attempts, which ranks 118th in pro football history. He has 6,856 yards, giving him a 5.49 career YPC average. His “expected” career yards per carry average — based on the league average YPC in each season of his career, weighted by his number of carries — is 4.21. Therefore, Charles has averaged 1.28 YPC above league average for his career, the highest rate in football history.

I’m not a big fan of yards per rush as the primary measure by which we measure running backs, but it’s still interesting to look at the data (for less-popular measures of running back performance that I do find interesting, click here or here). Barry Sanders really stands out in just about every set of analysis one ever does on running backs, but he also is a huge beneficiary of the era adjustment: while he averaged just 0.03 YPC more than Adrian Peterson, the ’90s was a very different era for running backs. After making that adjustment, Sanders has a +0.30 edge on Peterson in YPC over average.

If you sort by the Rush column or the Rk Rsh column, you get a list of the career leaders in attempts. This is another area where Sanders really stands out: Fred Taylor ranks 23rd in career rushes and 23rd in YPC over league average: he’s the only player besides Sanders in the top 25 in both metrics. Several players — Curtis Martin, Jerome Bettis, Edgerrin James, John Riggins, Steven Jackson — rank in the top 20 in rush attempts, are in the Hall of Fame or are borderline HOFers, and yet have a career YPC average below league average (which is one of the reasons why YPC is not one of my favorite statistics).

Here’s another way to look at this data: I plotted each of the 200 players in the graph below. The X-axis displays career carries, from about 800 to 4500; the Y-Axis shows YPC relative to league average, from -0.8 to about 1.5

http://www.footballperspective.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/06/ypc-rushes.png

Pretty interesting: what do you guys think?

Oh, and Billy Ray Barnes? He’s another interesting story. He averaged 3.47 YPC but led the Eagles in rushing yards and rushing touchdowns from ’57 to ’61. But Philadelphia struggled to run the ball during those years, finishing with a 3.54 YPC average, the worst in the NFL. Of course, the Eagles also won the championship in 1960, so these were the glory years for Philadelphia.

[ThaVirus]

Water is wet. JC is amazing. Nothing new here..

I'd almost like to give the guy 350 carries just to see what he'd do with them.. But nahhhhhhhhhh.

[SeeingRed]

Man thats a lot of work! Interesting data.....although I won't pretend to be smart enough to say I understand it perfectly. Basically it says Jamaal Charles is pretty fucking good! We knew that....but its interesting. Glad he is focused on longevity and staying healthy, if he stays healthy he is a sure to be a Hall Of Famer

[SeeingRed]

Water is wet. JC is amazing. Nothing new here..

I'd almost like to give the guy 350 carries just to see what he'd do with them.. But nahhhhhhhhhh.

agreed!

He's awesome, we know it, but we are a much better team if that guy is still somewhat fresh come playoff time.

[aturnis]

If Alex can make the rest of the offense work, Charles could benefit greatly. I don't think he gets the respect he deserves.

[Beef Supreme]

He deserves all the Escalades.

[MagicHef]

In the 1998 playoffs, TD averaged 2.01 YPC more than league average.

[Rausch]

agreed!

He's awesome, we know it, but we are a much better team if that guy is still somewhat fresh come playoff time.

We need to make it first. If Charles isn't getting 15+ touches a game we won't...

[milkman]

I think that YPC is the best means by which to measure a RB's true impact.

The guys he notes that are in the HoF with low YPC for their careers are, for the most part, guys that played for a long time and missed very little time to injury.

[loochy]

Jamaal Charles needs more carries.

[ThaVirus]

In the 1998 playoffs, TD averaged 2.01 YPC more than league average.

At his current pace, how many games will it take Justin Houston to pass Von Miller in sacks per game?

1? maybe 2?

[MagicHef]

At his current pace, how many games will it take Justin Houston to pass Von Miller in sacks per game?

1? maybe 2?

By "current pace", I assume you mean his 2014 rate. Over his career, Houston has 0.822 sacks per game. In 2014 he averaged 1.375 sacks per game.

Von has averaged 0.875 sacks per game, both over his entire career as well as during 2014. As you can tell by my signature, he is extremely consistent.

If they both continue at their 2014 paces, Houston will pass Von in week 7, when he records his 58th sack (totaling 9.5 for the season).

I don't think he'll continue at his current pace though, the only guy in NFL history that has had anywhere close to that many sacks in 2 separate seasons is JJ Watt, and even he had a down year in between the two.

[ThaVirus]

5.5, 10, 11 (in 11 games), and 22.

What comes next? :)

[ThaVirus]

By "current pace", I assume you mean his 2014 rate. Over his career, Houston has 0.822 sacks per game. In 2014 he averaged 1.375 sacks per game.

Von has averaged 0.875 sacks per game, both over his entire career as well as during 2014. As you can tell by my signature, he is extremely consistent.

If they both continue at their 2014 paces, Houston will pass Von in week 7, when he records his 58th sack (totaling 9.5 for the season).

I don't think he'll continue at his current pace though, the only guy in NFL history that has had anywhere close to that many sacks in 2 separate seasons is JJ Watt, and even he had a down year in between the two.

2011 re-draft. Do you think most teams take Houston or Miller?

[Rausch]

By "current pace", I assume you mean his 2014 rate. Over his career, Houston has 0.822 sacks per game. In 2014 he averaged 1.375 sacks per game.

Von has averaged 0.875 sacks per game, both over his entire career as well as during 2014. As you can tell by my signature, he is extremely consistent.

If they both continue at their 2014 paces, Houston will pass Von in week 7, when he records his 58th sack (totaling 9.5 for the season).

I don't think he'll continue at his current pace though, the only guy in NFL history that has had anywhere close to that many sacks in 2 separate seasons is JJ Watt, and even he had a down year in between the two.

As long as he's healthy I'd expect Houston to post 10+ sack seasons for years...

[Tombstone RJ]

At his current pace, how many games will it take Justin Houston to pass Von Miller in sacks per game?

1? maybe 2?

It's gonna be fun to watch this next season as to which player has more sacks.

[Rain Man]

2011 re-draft. Do you think most teams take Houston or Miller?

In this scenario, do we know yet that Von Miller was on the witness list for a mass murder?

http://www.thedenverchannel.com/sports/broncos/von-miller-named-as-a-possible-witness-in-feros-bar-murder-case-against-dexter-lewis

[SeeingRed]

It's gonna be fun to watch this next season as to which player has more sacks.

My money is on Houston

[Chiefaholic]

Water is wet. JC is amazing. Nothing new here..

I'd almost like to give the guy 350 carries just to see what he'd do with them.. But nahhhhhhhhhh.

What kind of stats would he have in Dallas?

[ThaVirus]

My money is on Catapano

FYP

[ThaVirus]

LMAO Just messing with you. I couldn't resist.

[Tombstone RJ]

My money is on Houston

of course it is...

[Rausch]

My money is on Houston

With another 12+ sack season Houston will likely become the highest paid OLB in the league.

You might be able to argue there are better pure pass rushers. You can definitely argue there are better coverage LB's. But no one is as good at rushing the passer while being as good as he is in run support and pass coverage.

I think he shows up, manages 15+, drops the mic and walks out of KC...

[Rausch]

of course it is...

You have an unfair advantage.

Houston doesn't get to face the KC line twice this year...

[Tombstone RJ]

With another 12+ sack season Houston will likely become the highest paid OLB in the league.

You might be able to argue there are better pure pass rushers. You can definitely argue there are better coverage LB's. But no one is as good at rushing the passer while being as good as he is in run support and pass coverage.

I think he shows up, manages 15+, drops the mic and walks out of KC...

Von Miller is better. Had he not missed half a season for smoking weed and then lying about it, he'd have more sacks. Of course, this is the offseason, and KC always wins the offseason.

[Tombstone RJ]

You have an unfair advantage.

Houston doesn't get to face the KC line twice this year...

You think the Broncos line is good, especially with that statue Manning? ROFL

[BossChief]

Von Miller is better. Had he not missed half a season for smoking weed and then lying about it, he'd have more sacks. Of course, this is the offseason, and KC always wins the offseason.

Well, if Romeo Crennel didn't drop Houston into coverage for 2 years and he didn't fuck up his elbow causing him to miss half a year, Houston would have a lot more sacks.

[Tombstone RJ]

Well, if Romeo Crennel didn't drop Houston into coverage for 2 years and he didn't **** up his elbow causing him to miss half a year, Houston would have a lot more sacks.

ok?

[Hammock Parties]

How many Super Bowls among the top 10?

Hint: it's less than one.

[Rausch]

You think the Broncos line is good, especially with that statue Manning? ROFL

It didn't matter the last two years. Hell, there were two plays last year Houston was unblocked and Manning dished the ball off before he could get there.

And it was complete because SOMEONE was always open.

I'd expect the same to happen our 1st game this year. With a young set of CB's Manning will likely be able to do what he did last year.

That second game though, with S. Smith back and Peters having a few games under his belt...:hmmm:

[Rausch]

Von Miller is better. Had he not missed half a season for smoking weed and then lying about it, he'd have more sacks. Of course, this is the offseason, and KC always wins the offseason.

Don't worry, I can see Houston beasting out this year and signing with Denver in the offseason...




...because Chiefs.

[Tombstone RJ]

Don't worry, I can see Houston beasting out this year and signing with Denver in the offseason...




...because Chiefs.

Broncos won't have the money to sign either Houston OR Miller. Both are going to get stupid big contracts.

[ThaVirus]

They've both had pretty impressive careers. They've played a similar amount of games and have a similar amount of sacks. Miller averages more sacks per game but Houston averages more sacks per start. They've both got a throw way year (Houston's rookie year in which he didn't start the full season and Miller's trash 2013 campaign).

Miller's been consistently good-great aside from said throw away year while Houston's career has taken a pretty obvious upward track. 10 sacks in a 2-14 season in which his team didn't hold a single lead until week 8 and 11 sacks in 11 games before injury in 2013 is almost as impressive as coming within a sack of the record.

[Rausch]

[/b]Broncos won't have the money[/b] to sign either Houston OR Miller. Both are going to get stupid big contracts.

That hasn't stopped them any other time...

[Tombstone RJ]

That hasn't stopped them any other time...

I'll be happy if the Broncos can resign Miller but I'm not counting on it. It will also be cool if KC can resign Houston. It would be fun to watch both players start and finish with the teams that drafted them.

[Rausch]

I'll be happy if the Broncos can resign Miller but I'm not counting on it. It will also be cool if KC can resign Houston. It would be fun to watch both players start and finish with the teams that drafted them.

Or Oakland could swoop in and sign one of them to pair with Mack.

Which would be sick...:mad:

[notorious]

All the Chiefs need to do is win a Superbowl and he walks into the HOF.

[Rausch]

All the Chiefs need to do is win a Superbowl and he walks into the HOF.

LMAO

[notorious]

LMAO

I know.


He's fucked.

[Willie Lanier]

Von Miller is better. Had he not missed half a season for smoking weed and then lying about it, he'd have more sacks. Of course, this is the offseason, and KC always wins the offseason.

You're smoking the same weed von is if you believe this

[MagicHef]

Von Miller is better. Had he not missed half a season for smoking weed and then lying about it, he'd have more sacks. Of course, this is the offseason, and KC always wins the offseason.

?

Von Miller does have more sacks than Justin Houston.

[Rausch]

Houston said on the NFLN top 100 players that he studies Von's tape and has picked up a few things from him. Also says they have a friendly rivalry over who gets the most sacks each year...