Playoff chances, seeds, rooting guide, etc.

[DaFace]

I always think it's fun to watch how our playoff chances shift from week to week as we get closer to the end of the year. Though we don't have cdcox's software to play with this time around, there are a number of websites you can use to get a similar idea of how things will work out.

A couple resources I like:

538.com's predictor (http://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2015-nfl-predictions/) updates after very game, includes game win probabilities and probabilities for a variety of playoff scenarios. Based on an Elo model that (if I understand it correctly) basically just looks at end-of-game score differentials compared to predicted differentials to arrive at a power rating of sorts.

The New York Times has a simulator kind of like what cdcox's software (http://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2015/upshot/2015-nfl-playoff-simulator.html?team=kc) used to do. It's based on Sagarin ratings, which have a complicated methodology that isn't even entirely known, but it's some sort of model. The nice thing about this one is that you can mess with scenarios to see how they impact our odds.

Feel free to post other resources, power rankings, whatever. I mostly just want a place for me to post my random thoughts about the possibilities!

[DaFace]

A few initial thoughts from this week:

According to 538, we've got a 85% chance of making the playoffs at this point, while NYT has us at 94%. Either way, we're in good shape unless we fuck something up royally.
Even if we were to lose to the Chargers next week, we'd still have a 79% chance of making the playoffs (NYT), so I won't rush guys like Houston back if we can get them a little more healthy for the stretch.
That said, the top 3 teams in the AFC are going to be the Bengals, Broncos, and Patriots, while the #4 seed is going to be the Colts or Texans. Since that's the case, holding onto the #5 seed may be really important. NYT says there's a 77% chance we get the 5 seed at the moment, but that drops to 53% if we drop a game to the Chargers.

That's all I've got at the moment. Just random observations. :)

[loochy]

If we would have lost we'd have a better chance at making the playoffs.

[DaFace]

If we would have lost we'd have a better chance at making the playoffs.

OK, Direckshun.

[siberian khatru]

A few initial thoughts from this week:

[list] According to 538, we've got a 85% chance of making the playoffs at this point, while NYT has us at 94%. Either way, we're in good shape unless we fuck something up royally.


You mean "chiefly." :D

[DaFace]

If anyone cares about a rooting guide for next weekend (though the main thing is for the Chiefs to keep winning), you want to pull for:

Bengals over Steelers (4% difference)
Titans over Jets (3% difference)
Eagles over Bills (1% difference)

Nothing else matters.

[loochy]

A few initial thoughts from this week:

According to 538, we've got a 85% chance of making the playoffs at this point, while NYT has us at 94%. Either way, we're in good shape unless we **** something up royally.
Even if we were to lose to the Chargers next week, we'd still have a 79% chance of making the playoffs (NYT), so I won't rush guys like Houston back if we can get them a little more healthy for the stretch.
That said, the top 3 teams in the AFC are going to be the Bengals, Broncos, and Patriots, while the #4 seed is going to be the Colts or Texans. Since that's the case, holding onto the #5 seed may be really important. NYT says there's a 77% chance we get the 5 seed at the moment, but that drops to 53% if we drop a game to the Chargers.

That's all I've got at the moment. Just random observations. :)

None of these things make me feel better

[The Franchise]

I want that #5 seed. If we're going to break this playoffs curse....it has to be against an AFC South team....preferably the Colts.

[mr. tegu]

Really, it is time to start thinking about what games to watch for who we would want to play in the first round.

If we get the #5 seed it is more than likely the AFC South winner. That seems like a pretty big advantage so we really need to keep that spot. Then beyond in the second round should we get there we would probably be looking at playing the #1 seed since I don't think the #6 seed would be beating the #3 seed.

So, in this scenario, who would we prefer to be the #1 seed? I think I would least like to play Cincinnati, then NE, then Denver.

[DaFace]

Really, it is time to start thinking about what games to watch for who we would want to play in the first round.

If we get the #5 seed it is more than likely the AFC South winner. That seems like a pretty big advantage so we really need to keep that spot. Then beyond in the second round should we get there we would probably be looking at playing the #1 seed since I don't think the #6 seed would be beating the #3 seed.

So, in this scenario, who would we prefer to be the #1 seed? I think I would least like to play Cincinnati, then NE, then Denver.

I think I'd MOST like to play Denver out of those three, but it's a tossup between Cincy and NE for me. If it were next week, I'd want the Pats all day, but they'll be much healthier in a month.

[DaFace]

Regarding next week, 538 gives us an 85% chance of winning over the Chargers. I think I'll go skiing and not waste my time watching a game that will either be 1) a boring, predictable win or 2) a soul-crushing loss.

[mr. tegu]

We have the head to head tie breaker over Pittsburgh and 1.5 game conference tiebreaker on NYJ. We are sitting pretty good there.

[alpha_omega]

Never thought i'd see this thread at 1-5. Refreshing.

[RINGLEADER]

Gotta win the divisional games. Also, the wins over Houston, Buffalo, and Pittsburgh are huge right now.

I wish the Jets and Steelers would lose some games -- but seriously as long as this team keeps playing like this they'll be fine.

[mr. tegu]

Gotta win the divisional games. Also, the wins over Houston, Buffalo, and Pittsburgh are huge right now.

I wish the Jets and Steelers would lose some games -- but seriously as long as this team keeps playing like this they'll be fine.

It really feels like if they each lose just one more game each, then we are pretty well locked in to the #5 seed.

[DJ's left nut]

If anyone cares about a rooting guide for next weekend (though the main thing is for the Chiefs to keep winning), you want to pull for:

Bengals over Steelers (4% difference)
Titans over Jets (3% difference)
Eagles over Bills (1% difference)

Nothing else matters.

So if the Bengals, Titans and Chiefs win next week, our odds go all the way up to 99% on the NYT model.

So that would be nice...

[DJ's left nut]

Regarding next week, 538 gives us an 85% chance of winning over the Chargers. I think I'll go skiing and not waste my time watching a game that will either be 1) a boring, predictable win or 2) a soul-crushing loss.

I did this for precisely the same reason in the Mizzou vs. Norfolk St NCAA Tournament game when MU went in as a 2 seed vs. the 15 (and promptly lost).

Needless to say, I've never regretted that decision for a second.

[DaFace]

So if the Bengals, Titans and Chiefs win next week, our odds go all the way up to 99% on the NYT model.

So that would be nice...

Yep. If that happens, we're essentially just playing for seeding. That said, the #5 seed is still really important, so hopefully we can lock that up early as well. Though I'm not normally a fan of resting starters week 17, it'd sure be nice to let our guys who are banged up take a week off at least.

[mr. tegu]

Yep. If that happens, we're essentially just playing for seeding. That said, the #5 seed is still really important, so hopefully we can lock that up early as well. Though I'm not normally a fan of resting starters week 17, it'd sure be nice to let our guys who are banged up take a week off at least.

I know that right now the obvious choice is to want to play Indy. But like NE, when Luck comes back is that really a team we want to be playing? I am not sure who to root for to win that division.

[stevieray]

In retrospect, its "good" that 3 of the 5 losses came against the NFC.

[DaFace]

I know that right now the obvious choice is to want to play Indy. But like NE, when Luck comes back is that really a team we want to be playing? I am not sure who to root for to win that division.

I almost feel like it's destiny. If we're going to win a playoff game, it's gonna have to be against the team that has stood in our way for 4 out of the 7 losses since 1994.

[DJ's left nut]

I know that right now the obvious choice is to want to play Indy. But like NE, when Luck comes back is that really a team we want to be playing? I am not sure who to root for to win that division.

I'll take our chance with Houston again.

I'm not going back to Indy and losing again. I don't have it in me.

That remains my most crushing moment as a sports fan. I'm not sure I can return to that particular crime scene.

[Buehler445]

I did this for precisely the same reason in the Mizzou vs. Norfolk St NCAA Tournament game when MU went in as a 2 seed vs. the 15 (and promptly lost).

Needless to say, I've never regretted that decision for a second.

Not me man. I saw every soul crushing loss delivered to KU.

I should probably adopt your philosophy.

[mr. tegu]

I almost feel like it's destiny. If we're going to win a playoff game, it's gonna have to be against the team that has stood in our way for 4 out of the 7 losses since 1994.

I'll take our chance with Houston again.

I'm not going back to Indy and losing again. I don't have it in me.

That remains my most crushing moment as a sports fan. I'm not sure I can return to that particular crime scene.

I would love for it to be that we finally beat Indy but if we lost again, that would just be awful. I, like many, am still more apathetic than I had been in the past as result of that one game that doesn't need to be mentioned.

If it comes down to the last week of the season it will make for an interesting poll to see who people want us to face.

[stevieray]

I'm not going back to Indy and losing again. I don't have it in me.

That remains my most crushing moment as a sports fan. I'm not sure I can return to that particular crime scene.



I almost posted the same thing. Gives me a stomach ache thinking about it.

I went twice.

[The Franchise]

I almost posted the same thing. Gives me a stomach ache thinking about it.

I went twice.

Third times a charm?

[mdchiefsfan]

I'll take our chance with Houston again.

I'm not going back to Indy and losing again. I don't have it in me.

That remains my most crushing moment as a sports fan. I'm not sure I can return to that particular crime scene.

I want redemption. That might be the only thing to erase it from my head.

It reminds me of the 06 NBA Finals: The Mavs were up 2-0 and it becomes a whistle-fest to get D-Wade to the line. THAT was my most soul-crushing sports experience. Then came the 2011 Finals with Dallas meeting the hyped up Miami Heat, yet again. I was dreading it, but to pull it out was the best thing for my psyche.

I want to go into Indy and step on their throats properly. I'm pretty certain there are many in the Chiefs locker room that feel the same way.

[stevieray]

Third times a charm?
oh man. That was a looooong drive home.

[Chiefs Pantalones]

Yep. If that happens, we're essentially just playing for seeding. That said, the #5 seed is still really important, so hopefully we can lock that up early as well. Though I'm not normally a fan of resting starters week 17, it'd sure be nice to let our guys who are banged up take a week off at least.

How would we be essentially playing for seeding when we haven't clinched a spot yet? Based on SOS?

[Buehler445]

I'll take our chance with Houston again.

I'm not going back to Indy and losing again. I don't have it in me.

That remains my most crushing moment as a sports fan. I'm not sure I can return to that particular crime scene.

Here too. And I've had some doozies. But that one tops the Ali Farokamesh disaster fuck and Carmello Anthony and that McNamara shitstain stealing the championship.

[DaFace]

How would we be essentially playing for seeding when we haven't clinched a spot yet? Based on SOS?

Well, that's the "essentially" part. These are models that make an assumption that teams will generally continue to play as they have over the course of the season (not in terms of W-L records, but in terms of other stats-based power ratings). Sure, if the Chiefs were to drop three games against the Browns, Ravens, and Raiders in a row, they could be in trouble, but it's highly unlikely that would happen.

And for that matter, if the scenario that DLN played out, we'd still have a 35% chance of making the playoffs even if we lost all three games to end the season. We have tiebreakers over pretty much everyone, so even 8-8 could possibly get us in, and 9-7 is almost a lock.

[mr. tegu]

How would we be essentially playing for seeding when we haven't clinched a spot yet? Based on SOS?

If after this week we are the only 8-5 team essentially it seems that we can only miss the playoffs by losing out and two other teams each finishing 9-7 because we have the tiebreakers on every team we would be competing with if we ended with the same records.

[notorious]

I'll take our chance with Houston again.

I'm not going back to Indy and losing again. I don't have it in me.

That remains my most crushing moment as a sports fan. I'm not sure I can return to that particular crime scene.

We need to exorcise the demons.

1st round at Indy
2nd round at NE/Denver
3rd round at NE/Denver

Shit all over our past in one post season.

[Discuss Thrower]

In retrospect, its "good" that 3 of the 5 losses came against the NFC.

Still dumb in my opinion that the NFL playoffs are two conference tournaments with the top four seeds in each weighted to divisional champions and two wild cards based largely on total league wins.

Consistency would be nice.

[The Franchise]

oh man. That was a looooong drive home.

I felt bad for all of you guys that went. Fuck....I couldn't imagine seeing that happen in person.

I was drunk as fuck by half time and I just watched in silence during the second half. I can remember my brother saying in the 3rd quarter after he said "we'll hold out....don't worry".....I turned to him and said "We're the Chiefs.....we're going to lose this."

[Rausch]

We need to exorcise the demons.

1st round at Indy
2nd round at NE/Denver
3rd round at NE/Denver

Shit all over our past in one post season.

This.

All this.

The most recent Colts loss hurt but it was nothing compared to 95. We were a SB team in 95 and just completely $#it the bed...

[stevieray]

I felt bad for all of you guys that went. ****....I couldn't imagine seeing that happen in person.

I was drunk as **** by half time and I just watched in silence during the second half. I can remember my brother saying in the 3rd quarter after he said "we'll hold out....don't worry".....I turned to him and said "We're the Chiefs.....we're going to lose this."

Know the feeling all too well.

When they gave that OOB fumble to the Colts? My heart SANK. I knew right then. How messed up is that?

I told the guy I was with, we're gonna lose by one....and we did.

[TEX]

This.

All this.

The most recent Colts loss hurt but it was nothing compared to 95. We were a SB team in 95 and just completely $#it the bed...

And that POS Kicker will FOREVER REMAIN NAMELESS! :cuss:

[Hog's Gone Fishin]

If we would have lost we'd have a better chance at making the playoffs.

This has to be true. We started 1-5 and have the #5 seed

[DaFace]

After today, 538 has us at an 89% chance of making the playoffs overall, and a 14% chance of winning the division. We have essentially no shot at the bye.

NYT's simulator has us at a 95% chance of making the playoffs. Here's the full scenario breakdown:

http://i.imgur.com/iQeUWhi.png

In terms of a rooting guide for next week, we want:
Chiefs over Ravens obviously (9% swing)
Cowboys over Jets (5% swing)
Broncos over Steelers (3% swing)

But I can assure you I will not be rooting for the Broncos to win.

[Hog's Gone Fishin]

Would be soooooo friggin awesome to see the Donkeys lose the next two.

Damn , we should have won the week 2 game. Damn !

[ThaVirus]

Can someone find me a scenario where the Broncos miss the playoffs entirely?

That would be awesome.

[Lex Luthor]

Still dumb in my opinion that the NFL playoffs are two conference tournaments with the top four seeds in each weighted to divisional champions and two wild cards based largely on total league wins.

Consistency would be nice.

I don't really see an inconsistency. All games count when determining a division winner, and all games count when determining the wild card teams.

What do you want, no divisions? It's fine the way it is.

[VAChief]

Can someone find me a scenario where the Broncos miss the playoffs entirely?

That would be awesome.

I think if they lose out and finish 10-6 and the Chiefs, Jets and Steelers win out and finish 11-5, that should do it.

Pats, Bengals, South Winner and the Chiefs would be division winners with the Jets and Steelers the Wild Cards.

[MahiMike]

My hope is that Jax wins the division and the Chiefs play here 1st week!

[TEX]

Deal is the Chiefs must KEEP winning because the Jets and Steelers are right there. One of the 3 will miss out if all are considered for a WC spot. Or, Pitt could win the division and drop Cinn into the WC tie-breaker system where KC does not own the tie-breakers. Things look good, but its not a done deal that the Chiefs even make the playoffs at this point.

[MahiMike]

Would be soooooo friggin awesome to see the Donkeys lose the next two.

Damn , we should have won the week 2 game. Damn !

I think about those 2 fumbles by JC every week. At the least we should be 9-4 and 1 game back right now.

[TEX]

My hope is that Jax wins the division and the Chiefs play here 1st week!

LOL! Good one....

[ThaVirus]

My hope is that Jax wins the division and the Chiefs play here 1st week!


Hadn't even really considered this much, but I'd go to that game if it happened.

[ChiefGator]

Hell yeah.. I live about 10 minutes from the Jags stadium.. that would be awesome!

[notorious]

I think about those 2 fumbles by JC every week. At the least we should be 9-4 and 1 game back right now.

It's fucked up, but if Jamaal gets injured in the preseason this team might be leading the division........

[Discuss Thrower]

I don't really see an inconsistency. All games count when determining a division winner, and all games count when determining the wild card teams.

What do you want, no divisions? It's fine the way it is.

The very least is the top four seeds host at least one game regardless of division winning status.

A 7-9 team hosting a 10+ win wild card is bullshit.

[TEX]

The very least is the top four seeds host at least one game regardless of division winning status.

A 7-9 team hosting a 10+ win wild card is bullshit.

Yep. Could very well happen in BOTH conferences this season. The NBA finally did something about that this season. The NFL should follow suit - especially since every year they're hell-bent on changing rules that always seem to include a few that don't make any sense. This rule change would be one that would make perfect sense.

[Chiefnj2]

Remaining Schedules

Pittsburgh
home Denver
@ Ravens
@ Browns

NY Jets
@ Dallas
home Patriots
@ Buffalo

KC Chiefs
@ Ravens
home Browns
home Raiders

[jonzie04]

I think if they lose out and finish 10-6 and the Chiefs, Jets and Steelers win out and finish 11-5, that should do it.

Pats, Bengals, South Winner and the Chiefs would be division winners with the Jets and Steelers the Wild Cards.


They could only lose 2, finish 11-5 and miss out as well if one L comes to the Steelers.

Chiefs win out 11-5 AFC Champs
Steelers win out 11-5 H2H over Denver 8-4 Conference
Jets Win out 11-5 8-4 Conference.
Broncos lose 2 11-5 7-4 Conference.

In that very unlikely scenario Denver would miss at 11-5

[DaFace]

As of right now, we're (not surprisingly) looking really good. FiveThirtyEight (http://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2015-nfl-predictions/) has bumped our chances at making the playoffs to 97% (41% chance of winning the AFCW), and the New York Times (http://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2015/upshot/2015-nfl-playoff-simulator.html?team=kc#stl-tb-15=win&dal-nyj-15=loss&bal-kc-15=loss&ind-hou-15=loss&jax-atl-15=loss&min-chi-15=win&ne-ten-15=win&nyg-car-15=loss&was-buf-15=win&oak-gb-15=loss&sea-cle-15=win&pit-den-15=win&sd-mia-15=win&sf-cin-15=loss&phi-ari-15=loss) gives us the exact same chances (97%) of making it in general and 45% of winning the division.

As far as I know, if we in ONE of our next two games and either the Jets or Steelers lose ONE of their next two games, we're in. We have essentially ZERO chance of getting a bye, so we're basically just playing for home field advantage in round 1 (and who we play).

In terms of rooting guide for next week, it's all pretty simple at this point. We want:

Chiefs over Browns (17% swing in our chances)
Patriots over Jets (6% swing)
Ravens over Steelers (3% swing)

The Broncos/Bengals game has essentially no effect on our chances of making the playoffs at all, so that one just depends on whether you want the #3 seed at home vs. a tough wildcard team or the #5 seed on the road against a weak division winner.

[Dante84]

The Broncos/Bengals game has essentially no effect on our chances of making the playoffs at all, so that one just depends on whether you want the #3 seed at home vs. a tough wildcard team or the #5 seed on the road against a weak division winner.

Really torn here.

If we're the 5 Seed:
R1: @Houston or @Indy

If we're the 3 seed:
R1: Host Steelers or Jets

Right?

[DaFace]

Really torn here.

If we're the 5 Seed:
R1: @Houston or @Indy

If we're the 3 seed:
R1: Host Steelers or Jets

Right?

At this point, it's almost guaranteed (93% according to 538) that Houston will win that division at this point, so we can pencil them in as the #4.

Similarly, 538 says that the Steelers are far more likely than the Jets to make it at this point, so you can (more weakly) pencil the Steelers in as the #6.

So it's pretty much down to @Houston or vs. Pittsburgh (though I know I'm giving these odds a bit too much credit here).

[Toby Waller]

theres something I forget exactly how it works.

which seed plays which seed after the first round?

[KChiefs1]

theres something I forget exactly how it works.

which seed plays which seed after the first round?


Highest seed vs Lowest seed.
2nd highest seed vs remaining team.

[Toby Waller]

Highest seed vs Lowest seed.
2nd highest seed vs remaining team.

rep'd

[penbrook]

We could possibly host the Broncos as well

[Spott]

Does anyone know why Pittsburgh has the tiebreaker of the Jets right now? Last week the Jets had the tiebreaker and now they are showing the Steelers as the 6th seed over the Jets.

[Mile High Mania]

Does anyone know why Pittsburgh has the tiebreaker of the Jets right now? Last week the Jets had the tiebreaker and now they are showing the Steelers as the 6th seed over the Jets.

Wins tie break over NY Jets based on best win percentage in common games.

http://espn.go.com/nfl/standings/_/view/playoff

[MotherfuckerJones]

theres something I forget exactly how it works.

which seed plays which seed after the first round?

:facepalm:

[Mile High Mania]

Here's my quick thoughts... despite the 0-2 streak, Denver did look good in the first half on the road yesterday. Not sure what their problem is in the 2nd half, but considering the CIN and SD games are in DEN and CIN is without Dalton, I believe Denver wins out and finishes 12-4 with the #2 seed.

CIN will go 1-1 and PIT will go 2-0, setting up a rematch @ CIN in Round 1.

Jets lose out to NE, and KC wins out with HOU winning their division.

Sets up KC @ Houston, oddly enough... to end the curse.

Playing around with the ESPN machine. The Jets/NE game, Cin/Den Game, Oak/KC game are really critical. If the Jets can beat NE and then CIN or OAK give those two teams fits, this thing gets flipped around.

[Spott]

Wins tie break over NY Jets based on best win percentage in common games.

http://espn.go.com/nfl/standings/_/view/playoff

Thanks. I assume that mean the Jets could get the tiebreaker back from Pittsburgh if they beat a 12-2 New England team next week who Pittsburgh lost to earlier in the season.

[Saul Good]

As of right now, we're (not surprisingly) looking really good. FiveThirtyEight (http://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2015-nfl-predictions/) has bumped our chances at making the playoffs to 97% (41% chance of winning the AFCW), and the New York Times (http://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2015/upshot/2015-nfl-playoff-simulator.html?team=kc#stl-tb-15=win&dal-nyj-15=loss&bal-kc-15=loss&ind-hou-15=loss&jax-atl-15=loss&min-chi-15=win&ne-ten-15=win&nyg-car-15=loss&was-buf-15=win&oak-gb-15=loss&sea-cle-15=win&pit-den-15=win&sd-mia-15=win&sf-cin-15=loss&phi-ari-15=loss) gives us the exact same chances (97%) of making it in general and 45% of winning the division.

As far as I know, if we in ONE of our next two games and either the Jets or Steelers lose ONE of their next two games, we're in. We have essentially ZERO chance of getting a bye, so we're basically just playing for home field advantage in round 1 (and who we play).

In terms of rooting guide for next week, it's all pretty simple at this point. We want:

Chiefs over Browns (17% swing in our chances)
Patriots over Jets (6% swing)
Ravens over Steelers (3% swing)

The Broncos/Bengals game has essentially no effect on our chances of making the playoffs at all, so that one just depends on whether you want the #3 seed at home vs. a tough wildcard team or the #5 seed on the road against a weak division winner.

I'm struggling to wrap my head around 97%. We've got more than a 3% chance of losing out. Even if we're 80% to win each of our remaining games, that's a 4% chance that we lose both and a 36% chance that we lose at least one game.

I'm sure their numbers are accurate, but it seems like the odds of us losing while Pitt and NY win out is more than 3%.

[Mile High Mania]

Thanks. I assume that mean the Jets could get the tiebreaker back from Pittsburgh if they beat a 12-2 New England team next week who Pittsburgh lost to earlier in the season.

Yeah, there are 3-4 incredibly critical games coming up this next week and then you have OAK @ KC that could play huge too, depending on what happens.

[Sully]

I'm struggling to wrap my head around 97%. We've got more than a 3% chance of losing out. Even if we're 80% to win each of our remaining games, that's a 4% chance that we lose both and a 36% chance that we lose at least one game.

I'm sure their numbers are accurate, but it seems like the odds of us losing while Pitt and NY win out is more than 3%.

I'm not a math guy, but I would assume it also takes into account the percentages of other teams' success, too.

[BossChief]

If we beat Cleveland and the jets lose to NE, we are OFFICIALLY in the playoffs.

[TEX]

If we beat Cleveland and the jets lose to NE, we are OFFICIALLY in the playoffs.

Yep. Also the case if Pitt loses.

[O.city]

At this point, it's almost guaranteed (93% according to 538) that Houston will win that division at this point, so we can pencil them in as the #4.

Similarly, 538 says that the Steelers are far more likely than the Jets to make it at this point, so you can (more weakly) pencil the Steelers in as the #6.

So it's pretty much down to @Houston or vs. Pittsburgh (though I know I'm giving these odds a bit too much credit here).

I don't think there's really a scenerio where the chiefs host the steelers in the WC round

[BigRedChief]

My hope is that Jax wins the division and the Chiefs play here 1st week!Huh? How is that possible?

[BigRedChief]

I don't think there's really a scenerio where the chiefs host the steelers in the WC roundThe only ones I've seen with us playing Pitt at home is in the AFC championship game.

[scho63]

Here's my quick thoughts... despite the 0-2 streak, Denver did look good in the first half on the road yesterday. Not sure what their problem is in the 2nd half, but considering the CIN and SD games are in DEN and CIN is without Dalton, I believe Denver wins out and finishes 12-4 with the #2 seed.


Steelers made huge adjustments at halftime and Denver had no new plan

[DJ's left nut]

Steelers made huge adjustments at halftime and Denver had no new plan

Steelers kept blowing holes in their own foot in the first half. In the second half they stopped doing that.

The Broncos are going to lose the first playoff game they play. I'm hoping enough things break right that they come back to Arrowhead for the WC round.

[DJ's left nut]

So the NYT now has the Chiefs as having better odds of making the playoffs (96%) than the Broncos (91%). It also says that our most likely outcome is to win the West (45% chance vs. 34 for the #5 WC and 16 for the #6 WC).

If Dalton were healthy, I'd be thinking we pass them. With McCarron under center, however, I just don't see how Cincy knocks Denver off for us.

[ThaVirus]

So the NYT now has the Chiefs as having better odds of making the playoffs (96%) than the Broncos (91%). It also says that our most likely outcome is to win the West (45% chance vs. 34 for the #5 WC and 16 for the #6 WC).

If Dalton were healthy, I'd be thinking we pass them. With McCarron under center, however, I just don't see how Cincy knocks Denver off for us.


The Bengals will likely struggle mightily to score with McCarron but even with their injuries they've still got the talent on defense to hold the Broncos to minimal points.

I agree with you, though. I'm not holding my breath.

[DJ's left nut]

The Bengals will likely struggle mightily to score with McCarron but even with their injuries they've still got the talent on defense to hold the Broncos to minimal points.

I agree with you, though. I'm not holding my breath.

If I knew whether or not Jeremy Hill sucked, I might be higher on the Bengals chances.

But I just can't figure that guy out at all. By most measures, the Bengals look like a team that should be able to manage a game to a W but Hill's just looked horrid for most of the year. Bernard's looked pretty damn good but it appears that Lewis just doesn't want to give him lead-dog carries.

Really, the Bengals look a lot like we'd look trying to win with Daniel under center. I think you can manage that against .500 or worse teams but I don't think they'll be able to pull it off against a viscous defense on the road.

If Hill were running with the ferocity he was running with last year, maybe. But right now he's running like Knile Davis instead of Spencer Ware.

[-King-]

So the NYT now has the Chiefs as having better odds of making the playoffs (96%) than the Broncos (91%). It also says that our most likely outcome is to win the West (45% chance vs. 34 for the #5 WC and 16 for the #6 WC).

If Dalton were healthy, I'd be thinking we pass them. With McCarron under center, however, I just don't see how Cincy knocks Denver off for us.

If McCarron doesn't make any stupid mistakes and is able to manage the game, I think Cinci can win. Broncos defense hasn't been as dominant the past few weeks and the Bengals defense can stop Osweiler easily IMO. Broncos haven't scored in the 2nd half of the past 3 games and they haven't played a defense close to as good as the Bengals. I bet the Bengals get a defensive score in this game.
Posted via Mobile Device

[O.city]

Broncos defense has been good though king, they just ran into a hot big ben. Last week, they dominated the raiders

[ARROW2]

Broncos defense has been good though king, they just ran into a hot big ben. Last week, they dominated the raiders



For one half. Then........ROFL

[DaFace]

I'm struggling to wrap my head around 97%. We've got more than a 3% chance of losing out. Even if we're 80% to win each of our remaining games, that's a 4% chance that we lose both and a 36% chance that we lose at least one game.

I'm sure their numbers are accurate, but it seems like the odds of us losing while Pitt and NY win out is more than 3%.

It's all just modeling of course, so I'd probably agree that 97% is a little on the high side. That said, it's pretty easy to see where the numbers come from. Using 538's model, we have a 90% chance of winning over the Browns and an 85% chance of beating the Raiders. That scenario alone give us a 76.5% chance of making the playoffs even if the Jets and Steelers win out.

Then on top of that 76.5% chance, you add the possibilities that the Jets lose to the Patriots (68%) or Bills (56%), and there's an 86% chance that they lose one or the other. Similarly, the Steelers could technically lose to either the Ravens (32%) or Browns (21%), and there's a 46% chance that one or the other will happen. Rolling all that up, there's a 92% chance that the Steelers and Jets will (collectively) lose at least one game, which would give us even more breathing room.

It's the NFL, so you really can't ever be comfortable, but we're in REALLY good shape unless a ton of luck turns against us.

[DaFace]

I don't think there's really a scenerio where the chiefs host the steelers in the WC round

It can happen, though it is somewhat unlikely. I think you're correct that we're more likely to host the Broncos than the Steelers.

(These are the times I wish I had cdcox's software to work with - it's much more granular than the other online predictors out there.)

[O.city]

It can happen, though it is somewhat unlikely. I think you're correct that we're more likely to host the Broncos than the Steelers.

(These are the times I wish I had cdcox's software to work with - it's much more granular than the other online predictors out there.)

If the jets lose to the Pats and the steelers win out with the chiefs winning out, wed either be the 5 seed, or the 3 seed.

I don't see or can't come up with a scenario where the steelers are the 6 seed.

I guess I'm not considering they drop one of their last 2 games though

[wazu]

If the jets lose to the Pats and the steelers win out with the chiefs winning out, wed either be the 5 seed, or the 3 seed.

I don't see or can't come up with a scenario where the steelers are the 6 seed.

I guess I'm not considering they drop one of their last 2 games though

You mean you don't see a scenario where Chiefs are 6 seed? Cause Steelers would be 6 in the only scenario you listed.

[O.city]

The steelers hold the tiebreaker over the jets so if they have the same record the steelers are the 5 seed.

The only way the steelers are the 6 seed is if the chiefs are the 5, from what I can tell. If we win the division, the broncos are the 6 seed or out

[O.city]

If we win the division and the Steelers drop 1 to the browns or ravens, yeah they're the 6 seed if the jets lose to the Pats

[KChiefs1]

Here's my quick thoughts... despite the 0-2 streak, Denver did look good in the first half on the road yesterday. Not sure what their problem is in the 2nd half, but considering the CIN and SD games are in DEN and CIN is without Dalton, I believe Denver wins out and finishes 12-4 with the #2 seed.



CIN will go 1-1 and PIT will go 2-0, setting up a rematch @ CIN in Round 1.



Jets lose out to NE, and KC wins out with HOU winning their division.



Sets up KC @ Houston, oddly enough... to end the curse.



Playing around with the ESPN machine. The Jets/NE game, Cin/Den Game, Oak/KC game are really critical. If the Jets can beat NE and then CIN or OAK give those two teams fits, this thing gets flipped around.


Here's a fun thought: if the CHIEFS, Steelers, Jets and Bengals all win next week, Denver will not be in playoffs headed into week 17 and will need a loss from KC, Pitt or New York to make it in.

[KChiefs1]

KC vs Houston would be appropriate since the Royals had to beat Houston too.

[aturnis]

Here's a fun thought: if the CHIEFS, Steelers, Jets and Bengals all win next week, Denver will not be in playoffs headed into week 17 and will need a loss from KC, Pitt or New York to make it in.
This is my favorite situation.

[REDHOTGTO]

This is amazing after the start of the season,unbeiveable

[Amnorix]

I certainly hope and expect the Patriots to beat the Jets, but it isn't a foregone conclusion. Amendola left the game limping last week, and if he's out, and Edelman remains out (uncertain), then that leaves Gronk and a bunch of guys nobody has ever heard of against a pretty good defense in their own house.

And the Pats defense may be without McCourty and Hightower.

So it might all come down to whether it's a good Fitzpatrick, or bad Fitzpatrick, that plays on Sunday, cuz the Pats sure as hell are limping to the finish line... Having already clinched a bye, Belichick may decide that being healthy for the playoffs is more important than whether the Pats are the 1 or 2 seed. That may mean reduced playing time for Gronk etc. I dunno. Just saying.

[wazu]

The steelers hold the tiebreaker over the jets so if they have the same record the steelers are the 5 seed.

The only way the steelers are the 6 seed is if the chiefs are the 5, from what I can tell. If we win the division, the broncos are the 6 seed or out

Don't have time to break them all down, but FYI about half of the things you've said in this thread are factually inaccurate.

[Chiefnj2]

If KC wins out and the Broncos lose 1 game, then KC takes the division.

If KC wins out and Broncos win out, KC is pretty much guaranteed the 5 spot.

IF KC loses one game, then all hell breaks loose between KC, NYJ and PITT and everyone in Missouri becomes a Pats/Bills/Chargers/Ravens fan.

[O.city]

Don't have time to break them all down, but FYI about half of the things you've said in this thread are factually inaccurate.

I'm basing everything on the assumption that the Steelers win out, the broncos finish 1 and 1 and the chiefs winnout.

[BigMeatballDave]

When was the last time a Chiefs and Raiders game actually meant something?

Would be great to beat Oakland and clinch the division at the same time. :D

[ChiefGator]

When was the last time a Chiefs and Raiders game actually meant something?

Would be great to beat Oakland and clinch the division at the same time. :D

Yeah, I have visions of Chucky jumping up and down like he won the Superbowl though. Bet they bring their A game.

[ThaVirus]

When was the last time a Chiefs and Raiders game actually meant something?



Would be great to beat Oakland and clinch the division at the same time. :D


2011. Week 17, IIRC.

We had the opportunity to win the division by beating them and we lost. Raiders blocked two field goals in that game.

[Mile High Mania]

I certainly hope and expect the Patriots to beat the Jets, but it isn't a foregone conclusion. Amendola left the game limping last week, and if he's out, and Edelman remains out (uncertain), then that leaves Gronk and a bunch of guys nobody has ever heard of against a pretty good defense in their own house.

And the Pats defense may be without McCourty and Hightower.

So it might all come down to whether it's a good Fitzpatrick, or bad Fitzpatrick, that plays on Sunday, cuz the Pats sure as hell are limping to the finish line... Having already clinched a bye, Belichick may decide that being healthy for the playoffs is more important than whether the Pats are the 1 or 2 seed. That may mean reduced playing time for Gronk etc. I dunno. Just saying.

Just need Denver to win both games at home.
Patriots lose @ Jets (possible) and @ Dolphins (not likely).

And then Denver gets the #1 seed. Go Jets and Dolphins.

[RINGLEADER]

2011. Week 17, IIRC.

We had the opportunity to win the division by beating them and we lost. Raiders blocked two field goals in that game.

Actually week 16.

That was the game that Dwayne Bowe dropped an easy pass that would have put 6 on the board and sealed the win.

[ThaVirus]

Actually week 16.



That was the game that Dwayne Bowe dropped an easy pass that would have put 6 on the board and sealed the win.


The Raiders went 6-0 in the division that year and still missed the playoffs. Tebow mania.

Weird year.

[Rain Man]

I certainly hope and expect the Patriots to beat the Jets, but it isn't a foregone conclusion. Amendola left the game limping last week, and if he's out, and Edelman remains out (uncertain), then that leaves Gronk and a bunch of guys nobody has ever heard of against a pretty good defense in their own house.

And the Pats defense may be without McCourty and Hightower.

So it might all come down to whether it's a good Fitzpatrick, or bad Fitzpatrick, that plays on Sunday, cuz the Pats sure as hell are limping to the finish line... Having already clinched a bye, Belichick may decide that being healthy for the playoffs is more important than whether the Pats are the 1 or 2 seed. That may mean reduced playing time for Gronk etc. I dunno. Just saying.

Stop, Jets!

[Discuss Thrower]

The Raiders went 6-0 in the division that year and still missed the playoffs. Tebow mania.

Weird year.

If that one Bears RB doesn't run out of bounds, Denver sits at home that year.

[ThaVirus]

Marion Barber, I think that was. Teams played like absolute idiots against the Broncos that year. Tebow never should have been a thing.

[BigMeatballDave]

If that one Bears RB doesn't run out of bounds, Denver sits at home that year.

Or if the Chiefs defend the one fucking pass that Tebow completed that day...

[TEX]

Just need Denver to win both games at home.
Patriots lose @ Jets (possible) and @ Dolphins (not likely).

And then Denver gets the #1 seed. Go Jets and Dolphins.

How the hell is Denver getting the # 1 seed when they're going to lose to the Bengals and Chargers? ;)

[Mile High Mania]

Here you go, with a bye locked up ... the Patriots will give some thought to resting the starters @ Jets and/or @ Dolphins. Which is to say, they very likely won't rest them. But, who knows. One can hope... doesn't matter though if Denver doesn't pull their head out and change the course of the last few weeks. It's set up very well for them, now it's time for them to act like they want it more than the fans want it.

http://www.nfl.com/news/story/0ap3000000607277/article/belichick-pats-will-give-thought-to-resting-starters

[ROYC75]

Just need Denver to win both games at home.
Patriots lose @ Jets (possible) and @ Dolphins (not likely).

And then Denver gets the #1 seed. Go Jets and Dolphins.

So you are saying you want to be the 1st # 1 seed to go down this year ?

[Paniero]

If KC goes to Houston for a game, I'm headed there. Any hot Chiefsplanet babes want to ride out?

[Chiefs Pantalones]

If KC goes to Houston for a game, I'm headed there. Any hot Chiefsplanet babes want to ride out?

Frazod will ride you.

[Paniero]

Frazod will ride you.

Cool. Does she or he have at least B cup breast? Criteria must be met, you know.

[ModSocks]

Cool. Does she or he have at least B cup breast? Criteria must be met, you know.

Frazod hasn't been a B-cup since his pre-teen years.

[OnTheWarpath15]

Frazod hasn't been a B-cup since his pre-teen years.

LMAO

[Discuss Thrower]

Frazod hasn't been a B-cup since his pre-teen years.

https://i.imgur.com/7lZwLKc.jpg

[KChiefs1]

When was the last time a Chiefs and Raiders game actually meant something?




Don't remind me.

[KChiefs1]

http://images.tapatalk-cdn.com/15/12/22/f4e28fea8a54d26b5bab67962181b311.jpg
http://images.tapatalk-cdn.com/15/12/22/876d80fa98c3aec33e183ce7ac0bf8b7.jpg
http://images.tapatalk-cdn.com/15/12/22/b18a30e2e3c4f88bd0c10c7fb803381b.jpg
http://images.tapatalk-cdn.com/15/12/22/2063a0f7b3bca016ca824a4f3db3fa3f.jpg
http://images.tapatalk-cdn.com/15/12/22/585eb9284383ab2c466e2e8617b2396c.jpg

[Rain Man]

http://images.tapatalk-cdn.com/15/12/22/585eb9284383ab2c466e2e8617b2396c.jpg


Wait, what?

[Discuss Thrower]

Wait, what?

http://img.pandawhale.com/116241-that-dont-make-no-sense-gif-Im-2m0g.gif

[BigRedChief]

(These are the times I wish I had cdcox's software to work with - it's much more granular than the other online predictors out there.)What happened to his software?

[DaFace]

What happened to his software?
My understanding is that the guy who did the underlying power ratings that powered it moved on, so cdcox would have to do a lot of recoding to get it to work with some other rating system. Couple that with the availability of a couple close substitutes, and it's tough to justify the effort.

[Misplaced_Chiefs_Fan]

Ostweiler to start against Bengals, Manning to be inactive.

http://www.nfl.com/news/story/0ap3000000607821/article/osweiler-to-start-vs-bengals-manning-set-to-be-inactive

So, does this help or hurt Cincy's chances?

[Mile High Mania]

Ostweiler to start against Bengals, Manning to be inactive.

http://www.nfl.com/news/story/0ap3000000607821/article/osweiler-to-start-vs-bengals-manning-set-to-be-inactive

So, does this help or hurt Cincy's chances?

I believe it hurts them, as they plan to bench Brock at halftime and let the rookie play the second half.

[DaFace]

Wait, what?

I THINK that's the result if all of the games he selected came true. Nothing to do with actual chances in reality.

[DaFace]

The NYT is slow on updating their pre-selected outcomes, so here's a link for the latest:

www.nytimes.com/interactive/2015/upshot/2015-nfl-playoff-simulator.html?team=kc#atl-car-16=win&bal-pit-16=win&buf-dal-16=win&det-sf-16=win&kc-cle-16=win&mia-ind-16=loss&nyj-ne-16=win&tb-chi-16=loss&ten-hou-16=loss

Obviously, we're in at this point, so it's a matter of what seed we end up with. It's possible that we could end up at #3 (52% chance), #5 (42% chance), and #6 (6% chance). I'm not 100% sure if it's COMPLETELY out of the question that we'd get a bye at this point, but it's far enough out to say it's just plain not gonna happen.

In terms of scenarios (and correct me if I'm wrong):

If we win against the Raiders:
We get the #3 seed with a loss by the Broncos in either of their next two games.
If the Broncos win both of their next two games, we get the #5 seed.
If we lose to the Raiders:
The #3 seed is technically still in play if the Broncos lose both of their next two games.
Otherwise, if the Jets win over the Bills, we'd get the #6.
If the Jets lose, we'd get the #5.

[BossChief]

I don't think we can get a bye anymore.

We lose tiebreakers with Bengals due to head to head and we can't catch NE.

[ThaVirus]

The NYT is slow on updating their pre-selected outcomes, so here's a link for the latest:

www.nytimes.com/interactive/2015/upshot/2015-nfl-playoff-simulator.html?team=kc#atl-car-16=win&bal-pit-16=win&buf-dal-16=win&det-sf-16=win&kc-cle-16=win&mia-ind-16=loss&nyj-ne-16=win&tb-chi-16=loss&ten-hou-16=loss

Obviously, we're in at this point, so it's a matter of what seed we end up with. It's possible that we could end up at #3 (52% chance), #5 (42% chance), and #6 (6% chance). I'm not 100% sure if it's COMPLETELY out of the question that we'd get a bye at this point, but it's far enough out to say it's just plain not gonna happen.

In terms of scenarios (and correct me if I'm wrong):

If we win against the Raiders:
We get the #3 seed with a loss by the Broncos in either of their next two games.
If the Broncos win both of their next two games, we get the #5 seed.
If we lose to the Raiders:
The #3 seed is technically still in play if the Broncos lose both of their next two games.
Otherwise, if the Jets win over the Bills, we'd get the #6.
If the Jets lose, we'd get the #5.

Sounds right to me.

So seems most likely that we'll play @ HOU, followed by either NYJ or DEN at home, @ DEN, or an extremely small chance we draw PIT at home. I think.

[Basileus777]

I don't think we can get a bye anymore.

We lose tiebreakers with Bengals due to head to head and we can't catch NE.
Yep, even in a three way tie I believe we'd get eliminated if Cinci is one of the teams.

[Rausch]

I guess we'll just have to keep earning it dirty...

[tmax63]

Never liked byes. Seen too many times where the "rested" team came out flat.

[BigMeatballDave]

I don't think we can get a bye anymore.

We lose tiebreakers with Bengals due to head to head and we can't catch NE.


Yeah, I think 3 seed is the best we can get and I'm fine with that, given our post-season history.

[Psyko Tek]

so all we had to do was win 9 games inna row
see not worth all this math shit

[NJChiefsFan]

Yep, even in a three way tie I believe we'd get eliminated if Cinci is one of the teams.

It's not possible as you say. In a hypothetical where the Patriots currently had 4 losses instead of 3, and next week KC, CIN, and NE all tied as division winners, the Chiefs would end up with the 1 seed due to conference record. Cincy and NE only have 2 conference losses, but that would change if they ended up with 5 losses.

[KChiefs1]

Best scenario for Chiefs:

WC: Denver at Arrowhead
Divisional: Chiefs at Cincinnati
AFC Champ: NY Jets at Arrowhead

[Toby Waller]

Ostweiler to start against Bengals, Manning to be inactive.

http://www.nfl.com/news/story/0ap3000000607821/article/osweiler-to-start-vs-bengals-manning-set-to-be-inactive

So, does this help or hurt Cincy's chances?

youre forgetting the whole drama/turmoil factor

[NJChiefsFan]

I went through the Common Games, SOV ect, pretty sure this is all correct.

1 on 1 tiebreakers.

KC wins all 1 on 1 tiebreakers(Would always be 5 seed tying PIT or NYJ, 3 seed if tying DEN)
DEN and NYJ tie at 10 wins, NYJ wins on Conference Record(DEN @ KC)
DEN and NYJ tie at 11 wins, NYJ wins on Conference Record(DEN @ KC)
DEN and PIT tie at 10 wins, PIT wins on H to H(PIT @ KC since this 1 on 1 only happens if NYJ are 11-5 and 5 seed)
PIT and NYJ tie at 10 wins, PIT wins on Common Games(PIT @ KC if KC won division, KC @ HOU if DEN won division)


Three team tie-breakers

KC 11-5 DEN 11-5 NYJ 11-5
then KC wins division, and NYJ gets 5 seed on Conference Record

DEN @ KC
NYJ @ HOU


DEN 10-6 NYJ 10-6 PIT 10-6(KC being 11-5 or 10-6 yields same results)
DEN is out based on Conference record, PIT 5 seed based on Common Games, NYJ 6

NYJ @ KC
PIT @ HOU


DEN 10-6 NYJ 10-6 KC 10-6(PIT finishes 9-7)
KC wins division, NYJ 5 seed on Conference record, DEN 6

DEN @ KC
NYJ @ HOU


*If DEN wins tomorrow night, it eliminates the chance of us playing NYJ in the first round

[DaFace]

Even after tonight, the #3, #5, and #6 seeds are all still in play. Here are the scenarios I can come up with:

#3 seed (18% chance based on the NYT model)
-Chiefs beat Raiders, Chargers beat Broncos

#6 seed (9% chance)
-Raiders beat Chiefs, Jets beat Bills

#5 seed (73% chance)
-All other possible scenarios

[Direckshun]

Let's go to Houston, folks.

[OnTheWarpath15]

Even after tonight, the #3, #5, and #6 seeds are all still in play. Here are the scenarios I can come up with:

#3 seed (18% chance based on the NYT model)
-Chiefs beat Raiders, Chargers beat Broncos

#6 seed (9% chance)
-Raider beat Chiefs, Jets beat Bills

#5 seed (73% chance)
-All other possible scenarios

Nothing wrong with that.

Going to Houston gives us the best chance of breaking this drought and getting this young roster the experience and confidence that comes with winning in the playoffs.

[tk13]

Heading into the final week:

1) NE (12-3)
2) DEN (11-4)

3) CIN (11-4)
6) NYJ (10-5)

4) HOU (8-7)
5) KC (10-5)

PIT 9-6
IND 7-8


For the Chiefs:

3 seed:
KC win + DEN loss (AFC West champs)

5 seed:
KC win + DEN win
KC loss + NYJ loss

6 seed:
KC loss + NYJ win

That's it, I think. If the Chiefs get the 3 seed, they could play either DEN/PIT/NYJ. 5 seed will play HOU unless IND gets the greatest miracle of all time. 6 seed would likely play CIN, unless DEN also loses next week. Feel free to correct anything that's wrong.

[Direckshun]

Nothing wrong with that.

Going to Houston gives us the best chance of breaking this drought and getting this young roster the experience and confidence that comes with winning in the playoffs.

I really, really like the matchups in the AFC this year. I really think the Bengals are the only team that can beat us more than 50% of the time.

Brady is an X factor but the Pats are held together by shoestrings at this point, and the Broncos are a threat to collapse offensively even more than we are.

Good, good year to be in the playoffs.

[DaFace]

Nothing wrong with that.

Going to Houston gives us the best chance of breaking this drought and getting this young roster the experience and confidence that comes with winning in the playoffs.

Agreed. It's been the path I was kind of hoping for for a while now. Win one playoff win - that's all I ask. Houston gives us about the best shot we've got at doing it.

[BigRedChief]

Agreed. It's been the path I was kind of hoping for for a while now. Win one playoff win - that's all I ask. Houston gives us about the best shot we've got at doing it.yep, never turn down a chance to play a home playoff game but, I like the matchup with Houston. I don't want to drop to #6 and play in Cincy. We have to beat the Raiders.

[philfree]

So if the Chiefs win and then both Denver and Cincy lose the Chiefs are the #2 seed? Right!

[tk13]

So if the Chiefs win and then both Denver and Cincy lose the Chiefs are the #2 seed? Right!

Cincy beat KC head to head, so nope. The 3 seed is as high as they can go.

In that scenario, KC/DEN tiebreaker would count first, which KC would win. Then KC/CIN would be tied for the 2 seed, but CIN would win head to head... KC drops down to the 3 seed.

[philfree]

Cincy beat KC head to head, so nope. The 3 seed is as high as they can go.

In that scenario, KC/DEN tiebreaker would count first, which KC would win. Then KC/CIN would be tied for the 2 seed, but CIN would win head to head... KC drops down to the 3 seed.

We'll have a 10-2 conference record though. Hmm on the boobtube they said we could still be the #2. I'll go with tk13 though. I think he's right.

[tk13]

We'll have a 10-2 conference record though. Hmm on the boobtube they said we could still be the #2. I'll go with tk13 though. I think he's right.

We do, but we lost to Cincinnati head-to-head. That beats any other tiebreaker. Same reason Cincinnati can't pass Denver... they lost to them tonight.

[philfree]

We do, but we lost to Cincinnati head-to-head. That beats any other tiebreaker. Same reason Cincinnati can't pass Denver... they lost to them tonight.

So who loses/wins which tie break first?

[Toby Waller]

I thought Cincy had to win tonight for Steelers to get in....and Denver lose to SD.

nope,Jets just have to lose.

theres no point in Denver being there. They will lose their first game no matter what

[ptlyon]

theres no point in Denver being there. They will lose their first game no matter what

Bullfuckingshit. It's apparent after last night what the NFL wants the narrative to be

[58-4ever]

Bull****ingshit. It's apparent after last night what the NFL wants the narrative to be

What happened for you to form this conspiracy theory?

[MotherfuckerJones]

So if jets lose, we have 5 seed if we lose?

[DaFace]

So if jets lose, we have 5 seed if we lose?
Correct.

[ptlyon]

What happened for you to form this conspiracy theory?

Look at their season and see how they've won.

[DaFace]

Look at their season and see how they've won.
:tinfoil:

[MotherfuckerJones]

Correct.

It's all simple now gladly. So I wonder if Jets lose, will Andy sit guys.

Jets at Bills 1pm game?

[Mile High Mania]

Look at their season and see how they've won.

So, ummm... what exactly did the NFL do to manipulate the game last night? They hit AJ in the eye with a laser on the last snap?

[ptlyon]

So, ummm... what exactly did the NFL do to manipulate the game last night? They hit AJ in the eye with a laser on the last snap?

Rigged I tells ya!

[GloucesterChief]

I am okay with Denver having the 2nd seed. All the better when a team comes to Mile High and rips the Donk's heart out. Donkey fan tears are delicious and I want to see continual shots of Elway's bad fish face. Hope it is the Chiefs.