Give your *realistic* offseason predictions..

[pugsnotdrugs19]

Alright, since we're almost a day past the divisional loss, it's time to turn the page and look to what needs done in order to make the big push next season.

First, one must know that with a projected 150 million dollar cap, the Chiefs currently are said to have 31.6 million heading into the offseason to spend. Also, that does not include Demetrius Harris' recent extension, which likely cuts it down to about 30 million.

I think Dorsey knows that the time to win for this team is in the next 1-2 years primarily, and I hope we'll see that with his moves this spring. Here's what I am expecting:

ERFA's:
Our main ERFA's (C. West, Sorenson, N. Williams, D. King) will all likely be kept for the minimal dollar that they are required to take. Maybe they work some other things out, but the main thing is that these guys not only will not go anywhere, but really they can't.

As for RFA's, the Chiefs have already extended D. Harris and can make a decision on Dezman Moses now.

UFA's:
It's important to know before reading into this, that a lot of these guys have already stated that they don't want to be anywhere else. This is their 'family'. Will it matter in FA? Maybe, maybe not. But it certainly sounds better than what most guys have said in the past. See more on that here ---> http://www.chiefsdigest.com/chiefs-season-officially-over-now-have-decisions-to-make-on-looming-free-agents/

Derrick Johnson and Tamba Hali said post game yesterday that they both were Chiefs as long as they played and would work all that out in the offseason.. I can't see them going anywhere. They are simply too valuable as leaders and even as players at this point. I think they work out some deals on the cheaper side, while DJ continues to man the middle for another season or two and Hali steps in as the primary backup to Dee Ford and Justin Houston.

Eric Berry isn't going anywhere. It will cost a pretty penny, even though they can structure the contract to not cost a lot while they are trying to set up this run. Not a lot of explaining needed, Berry will be re-signed as a valuable leader and one of the top 3 safeties in the league.

Sean Smith is the tricky one. I love his game, really do. But I also said that these offseason predictions need to be realistic, and I just can't see a scenario where we fit his soon to be massive contract into our plans for the future effectively. They've drafted corners heavy at the top of the draft the past two seasons for a reason. Realistically, we can expect that they want Marcus Peters, Phillip Gaines, and Steven Nelson to play and contribute a lot. I think it's entirely possible that Gaines takes over the outside spot with his elite length and speed. Going on 29 years old, I don't see Smith back in KC at his projected price.

Jaye Howard is one I expect to be kept. He talked extensively about wanting to win the Super Bowl with this team and his specific DLine group yesterday in post game, and considering they've already been reported to having contract talks, I think this is the one they fit in instead of S. Smith. Jaye gets a deal similar to what Derek Wolfe got the other day.

I also expect that they may keep Abdullah or Branch, but not both. I lean toward Abdullah. I think they'll consider keeping Jeff Allen, but only at their price. After yesterday, I understand why they have a guy like Avant and if he wants to be our #5 receiver next year, I'd be okay with that too.

Between the draft and FA, I can't say much for who I expect at this point. But I think they will address the OL, WR, LB depth, and DB depth heavily. But again, the main message is this: Dorsey knows this team is ready to win in these next 1-2 years and will do what he has to in order to take that shot. He will manipulate the cap to fit guys in early on while the fire is still hot. Hell, he may even find a way to keep S. Smith, who knows. A lot is yet to be determined but there's a lot to be excited about, Chiefs fans. I look for our expectations to be as high as they've been in many many years come July, whether that sounds exciting or scary to you, or not.

[milkman]

Here.

Dorsey's goal is to try and set up a team that can compete year in and year out, ie the GB model. I doubt they ever go out in FA and make too many big splashes all at once. He has made more FA signings than they do in GB with Maclin ect, but I've always felt like that was due to the roster when he got it. I figure the long-term goal is to let the drafting and UDFA's cycle talent through.

I don't see him ever pushing the chips in the table for a 1 or 2 year run. I'm not even sure that is smart. Big picture the Chiefs are going in the right direction, and while the window on some vets is closing, I don't think forcing the issue for 1 year is the proper course of action.

How Dorsey handles our FA's is a bigger factor in the future course of this team than what he does with outside FA's. This offseason is pretty massive for the future of this team, who we keep, and who we don't.

[pugsnotdrugs19]

Here.

I completely agree with that comment for NJChiefsfan. When I say 1-2 year run, I really mean that I think that's what some of their veteran players might have in the tank as good or great level players.

I expect Dorsey will use nearly all of the 30 million in cap space to keep our own guys. We won't be big spenders on outside talent, IMHO. I'm more than happy with that. If you draft well, the window never truly shuts.

[kcpasco]

Which player would you use the tag on if forced to?

[milkman]

Which player would you use the tag on if forced to?

I really love what Eric Berry brings to this team, and I also think what Sean Smith adds is really important, but I just don't know if there is any player, including those two, that is set to hit free agency that I would tag.

[pugsnotdrugs19]

I wouldn't tag anyone, probably. The cap hit is too large, and we don't have any Justin Houston's hitting the market.

[brucey_72]

Resign Berry, Howard, Abdullah or Branch, Johnson, and West.

FA Signings: Marvin Jones or Travis Benjiman WR, OL help, Josh Norman CB.

Draft: Round 1- Michael Thomas, OSU WR- Round 2- Kentrell Brothers Mizz ILB- Round 3 Sebastian Tretola, Ark OG

[kcpasco]

I really love what Eric Berry brings to this team, and I also think what Sean Smith adds is really important, but I just don't know if there is any player, including those two, that is set to hit free agency that I would tag.

I could see the Raiders overpaying for either of those 2 guys, since the secondary is where they need to improve. So I wouldn't be against using the tag on Berry and just letting Sean walk if that's the case.

That would really suck to see Berry as a Raider.

[pugsnotdrugs19]

Resign Berry, Howard, Abdullah or Branch, Johnson, and West.

FA Signings: Marvin Jones or Travis Benjiman WR, OL help, Josh Norman CB.

Draft: Round 1- Michael Thomas, OSU WR- Round 2- Kentrell Brothers Mizz ILB- Round 3 Sebastian Tretola, Ark OG

I like all of this-- but Josh Norman isn't going anywhere.

[CoMoChief]

It'd be nice to let Smith walk and draft a CB early, have that position set for the next 6-7 yrs.

DJ Hali and Berry I believe all still be Chiefs next season. I had wondered about Hali because he's really showed his age this season, but on the other hand Dee Ford sucks with exception of a couple games. He played awful in yesterday's game. He's gonna have to figure out how to engage the tackle and collapse the pocket. He's still playing like it's college where he's able to just beat tackles with a good first step and his speed. In the NFL he literally takes himself out of the game about 90% of the time, so much so that the QB doesn't even have to step up into the pocket...he's that far out of the play. His passrushing skills must improve. He's already a liability in coverage.

That Justin March ILB guy, whom the Chiefs had high hopes for will come back, so I don't think ILB will be a position in need when it comes to the draft. Howard will probably be on another team I think. The Chiefs brass have been trying to get a deal done w/ him throughout the regular season and it hasn't gotten done. That would lead me to believe that Howard thinks he can get more $$ elsewhere than the Chiefs are willing to pay him.

Draft

(besides CB to replace Smith) WR and OL...it's the same god damn story once again. These are the 2 major needs on this team (again). Chiefs stupidly passed on Tyler Locket in favor of Mitch Morse, when they probably could have obtained Morse in the next rd instead of drafting a nickel CB who's really yet to see any considerable playing time because he's still learning the position. Peters, Lockett, Morse. That's a hell of a 1-2-3 first day group. But whatever, can't do anything about it now. All I know is that after Maclin, there's not really any true threat at WR. Wilson, Conley, Avant are all tier 4 or 5 WR's, have no reason being #2WR's unless you simply don't have anyone else, and the Chiefs are in that boat. And who knows about DAT, god what a major disappointment he's been. Again this is a scenario where Tyler Lockett could have solved that issue. Def need more immediate impact talent at this position.

OL same deal. Chiefs actually created some depth this season, with Fulton moving over to center while Morse was healing his vagina for a portion of the season. Don't like the Jah Reid extension. IMO that could have been money eventually spent elsewhere to someone more important. Still think we need another tackle and guard. Grubbs was a disappointment as was Allen (who was mostly hurt - wtf is he ever not going to have inj problems), Stephenson sometimes he looks outright dominant, other times he looks lost, clueless and is prone to drawing flags/penalties.

IMO those are the Chiefs 2 most important positions heading into the draft.

[brucey_72]

I like all of this-- but Josh Norman isn't going anywhere.

I honestly dont think he is either but I am thinking that the Chiefs add a couple CBs this offseason

[pugsnotdrugs19]

I completely forgot about Justin March. Damn would it be nice if he turned out to be something special as a UDFA.

I actually think Conley has some WR2 potential. But I also think the position needs addressed. If Maclin were to actually tear an ACL or something of that nature, we aren't prepared for it at all.

[pugsnotdrugs19]

I also think Jah Reid looks pretty good at guard. Probably better there than at tackle. His versatility makes that signing look pretty good.

[Fish]

7 months of bitching about Alex Smith again.

EDIT: Ohh, you meant the team...

[threebag]

What ever we draft CB or Rec first round has to be a hit not a project.

[pugsnotdrugs19]

7 months of bitching about Alex Smith again.

EDIT: Ohh, you meant the team...

Smith has earned my full support. Don't care who is or isn't on board with that sentiment.

[milkman]

Smith has earned my full support. Don't care who is or isn't on board with that sentiment.

Smith can win if you surround him with superior talent at nearly every position.

I am just not sure that's possible, but with a 160 mil cap, and his cap hit being 17 mil(?), it might be.

[pugsnotdrugs19]

Smith can win if you surround him with superior talent at nearly every position.

I am just not sure that's possible, but with a 160 mil cap, and his cap hit being 17 mil(?), it might be.

I'm not even sure it's that dire, milkman.

Don't get me wrong, he's not Brady. He's not going to shred with whatever weapons he has. But yesterday, without his #1 option, with Belichick completely bracketing Kelce, and with the defense playing poorly due to their gameplan, he still had us in a potential position to win.

I think when Andy let's Alex just play football and make calls on the field, he's a damn good quarterback who can win big games. We just didn't have the horses yesterday we've had all year, and that doesn't work against New England. Alas, we must address the depth at WR.

[mcaj22]

I would take a hard look at Mohamed Sanu, took a step back this year cause of healthy AJ Green and Marvin Jones. But when those guys were both hurt in 2014 he stepped in a pinch and was an okay WR. Could be hopefully a cheap target, would help to have someone like that when Maclin goes down.

[O.city]

I would take a hard look at Mohamed Sanu, took a step back this year cause of healthy AJ Green and Marvin Jones. But when those guys were both hurt in 2014 he stepped in a pinch and was an okay WR. Could be hopefully a cheap target, would help to have someone like that when Maclin goes down.

I like Benjamin alot from Cleveland.

[l4z4rd]

Smith can win if you surround him with superior talent at nearly every position.

I am just not sure that's possible, but with a 160 mil cap, and his cap hit being 17 mil(?), it might be.

No QB is gonna win with only one viable weapon available.

[mcaj22]

I like Benjamin alot from Cleveland.

I'd imagine he has two things going for him

1) no way he wants to stay in Cleveland.

2) he might be by far the best FA WR if Alshon Jeffrey gets tagged/locked up.

So he could get easily overpaid.

[mcaj22]

No QB is gonna win with only one viable weapon available.

The Panthers have zero viable weapons and might win today lol

[pugsnotdrugs19]

The Panthers have zero viable weapons and might win today lol

Olsen? Ginn has even been good this season

[O.city]

I'd imagine he has two things going for him

1) no way he wants to stay in Cleveland.

2) he might be by far the best FA WR if Alshon Jeffrey gets tagged/locked up.

So he could get easily overpaid.

That's true.

I just think we need more speed guys than big bodied guys

[pugsnotdrugs19]

Benjamin would be a bad signing for this offense IMO. His best route is the 9, and we don't call those very often. He'd be a nice option to stretch the field, but you essentially already have that guy in Conley.

[vailpass]

I'm not even sure it's that dire, milkman.

Don't get me wrong, he's not Brady. He's not going to shred with whatever weapons he has. But yesterday, without his #1 option, with Belichick completely bracketing Kelce, and with the defense playing poorly due to their gameplan, he still had us in a potential position to win.

I think when Andy let's Alex just play football and make calls on the field, he's a damn good quarterback who can win big games. We just didn't have the horses yesterday we've had all year, and that doesn't work against New England. Alas, we must address the depth at WR.

As long as he doesn't have to throw a deep ball...that was some ugly shit yesterday

[l4z4rd]

The Panthers have zero viable weapons and might win today lol

Stewart, Olsen, and Ginn are not viable weapons?

[pugsnotdrugs19]

Stewart, Olsen, and Ginn are not viable weapons?

Hell, even throw Tolbert in there

[jd1020]

Stewart, Olsen, and Ginn are not viable weapons?

Isn't Ginn one of those guys from Alex's past that wasn't good enough?

[Tacoman]

Isn't Ginn one of those guys from Alex's past that wasn't good enough?

Ginns problems in SF had more to do with him being able to catch the ball than anything, guy dropped the bean almost every time he was in position to make a catch.

He must have put in some work on the juggs machine for a few years.

[Bowser]

- I expect Tamba to be gone
- I expect DJ to stay at a team friendly price
- I expect us to be very quiet in free agency. Bit players and backups only to be looked at
- I expect Berry to sign a lucrative new deal to stay
- I HOPE they tag Sean Smith, but I expect him to be gone (Smith, Peters, and Gaines would be the best three deep corner rotation we've had in years and years)
- I expect Chase Daniel to leave. I HOPE he stays with us as an offensive assistant to be groomed one day as a coordinator
- I expect us to lose Charcandrick West (possibly, but not convinced he's gone) and Knile Davis. Spencer Ware will remain and Darren Reeves will be promoted up
- I expect Fred Williams to be promoted up
- I expect DAT will be released
- I expect DeVito is gone, and Jaye Howard to take his place
- I expect Muaga will lose his job to either DJ Alexander or Ramik Wilson
- I expect Conley to take the #2 WR spot from Wilson

[ThaVirus]

Charles, Maclin, Kelce, West, Ware, Wilson>Stewart, Olsen, Ginn, Benjamin, Funchess, Brown

[pugsnotdrugs19]

Again guys Charcandrick West can't play anywhere else next year unless the Chiefs cut him outright. He's an exclusive rights FA which means he can't actually explore FA unless he is released.

[pugsnotdrugs19]

Charles, Maclin, Kelce, West, Ware, Wilson>Stewart, Olsen, Ginn, Benjamin, Funchess, Brown

Only 3 of the 6 Chiefs you named actually played yesterday. And no I'm not counting Maclin as playing.

[ThaVirus]

Only 3 of the 6 Chiefs you named actually played yesterday. And no I'm not counting Maclin as playing.

Notice I also included Kelvin Benjamin, who hasn't played a snap this season for the Panthers.

Our weapons on offense are every bit as good as these two teams playing right now- probably better.

[Bowser]

Again guys Charcandrick West can't play anywhere else next year unless the Chiefs cut him outright. He's an exclusive rights FA which means he can't actually explore FA unless he is released.

I read that he was an EFA after I made my post. I should have known that to begin with, so you can strike that from my thoughts.

[GloucesterChief]

For the draft I think we need 3 positions in the top three rounds: ILB, WR, RT.

For WR I like: Braxton Miller, Kenny Lawler, and Doctson.
ILB: Jaylon Smith or Scooby Wright
Not sure about RT prospects.

[pugsnotdrugs19]

I read that he was an EFA after I made my post. I should have known that to begin with, so you can strike that from my thoughts.

I think the rest of your ideas were solid and viable possibilities.

[TigeRRUppeRRcut]

1) Franchise Tag Sean Smith.

2) Chiefs spend 5-7 mil/year on a legit #2 receiver (Although options are quite limited) or use pick #2 or #3 in the draft

3) We trade / sign / draft a solid ILB. Derrick Johnson will also sign a 2 year contract with $4.5 million guaranteed although retires after 1 season

4) Hussain Abdullah will be released to free agency. Grubbs will be cut.

5) Chiefs will draft a right tackle in rounds 1 or 2

6) Chiefs extend Ware. Charles will stay on the roster as the lead split carry back (Although the pair are far too expensive). West kept on a 1 year tender.

7) Berry will get a 4 year contract

8) We retain Harris and Jaye Howard

10) Avant retires

Could see Chiefs earning 2 supplemental draft picks as a result of releasing more players than signing

[jd1020]

Again guys Charcandrick West can't play anywhere else next year unless the Chiefs cut him outright. He's an exclusive rights FA which means he can't actually explore FA unless he is released.

They don't have to release him. He's a FA. He's an ERFA so that means if he is tendered a contract he pretty much has to take it or retire since he won't have the right to negotiate a contract with any other team. But if the Chiefs don't offer a contract he becomes a UFA. But they will make that offer because it's only like 500k so it doesn't matter.

[Bowser]

For the draft I think we need 3 positions in the top three rounds: ILB, WR, RT.

For WR I like: Braxton Miller, Kenny Lawler, and Doctson.
ILB: Jaylon Smith or Scooby Wright
Not sure about RT prospects.

Yep. Receiver and ILB HAVE to be taken in the first two rounds. Brothers from Mizzou is a tackling machine and would look good next to DJ in the middle. As far as receiver goes, I get the feeling it's another deep year for the position, so as long as they take a guy in the first two rounds I'll be happy. Right tackle in the third is smart, and I'm good with BPA after that.

[GloucesterChief]

We should be going into next year with Charles, Ware, and West as our three RBs. Cut Davis.

[Bowser]

And let me add that I expect Donald Stephenson to be gone, as well

[pugsnotdrugs19]

Notice I also included Kelvin Benjamin, who hasn't played a snap this season for the Panthers.

Our weapons on offense are every bit as good as these two teams playing right now- probably better.

You're telling me that Kelce, West, Wilson and Maclin at 50-60% is better than Olsen, Ginn, Stewart, Tolbert, Funchess, and Brown?

[TigeRRUppeRRcut]

We should be going into next year with Charles, Ware, and West as our three RBs. Cut Davis.

Davis is only a 800,000 cap hit. The only other option I see here is to trade him to move up in a late round or for a 6th round pick.

[TigeRRUppeRRcut]

With Chase Daniel, Grubbs, and Hali (likely) to be off the books... we need to make a big splash at the OL or WR2 position, then draft what we can't acquire.

Give us Marvin Jones. I beg of you Dorsey.

[pugsnotdrugs19]

Would love Marvin Jones.

[Chiefshrink]

With Chase Daniel, Grubbs, and Hali (likely) to be off the books... we need to make a big splash at the OL or WR2 position, then draft what we can't acquire.

Give us Marvin Jones. I beg of you Dorsey.

Would love Marvin Jones.

You guys nailed it here with Marvin. I love this guy and his twin is Markus Wheaton as well. These guys were best kept secrets. I would be satisfied with either one but I don't know if Wheaton would be available though.

[pugsnotdrugs19]

Also what does everyone think about drafting OJ Howard? The 2 TE sets would be killer..

[mcaj22]

Olsen? Ginn has even been good this season

Stewart, Olsen, and Ginn are not viable weapons?

If this what you guys consider a "viable" weapon for another teams success then why the hell are complaining the Chiefs NEED MORE?

https://cdn2.vox-cdn.com/thumbor/l1UUZpmkiG-3YfOqzEBmy_bxp7c=/1000x0/filters:no_upscale%28%29/cdn0.vox-cdn.com/uploads/chorus_asset/file/4223765/ginn.0.gif

[RealSNR]

DOOM

[TigeRRUppeRRcut]

If this what you guys consider a "viable" weapon for another teams success then why the hell are complaining the Chiefs NEED MORE?

https://cdn2.vox-cdn.com/thumbor/l1UUZpmkiG-3YfOqzEBmy_bxp7c=/1000x0/filters:no_upscale%28%29/cdn0.vox-cdn.com/uploads/chorus_asset/file/4223765/ginn.0.gif

Carolina has an elite OL as seen by their run game. They have a myriad of receivers who can get the job done, which is moving the markers. They unleash stone hands Ginn out there to keep the other team honest. When Kelvin Benjamin returns he won't make much of a difference, he absolutely can't be the focal point of their offense. It has to be Olsen.

Gotta credit Carolina for their balanced offense. Dual threat QB, Olsen, a flurry of capable of receivers, and a stable of backs. .

[Bowser]

Also what does everyone think about drafting OJ Howard? The 2 TE sets would be killer..

That would be killer, but would he last to the fourth? Our top priorities should be receiver, ILB, and a right tackle, unless you think Howard is a better value as a #2 TE when what we would have otherwise. I certainly wouldn't hate it, but it would have the feel of a luxury pick to me, at least it does right now thinking about it.

[pugsnotdrugs19]

That would be killer, but would he last to the fourth? Our top priorities should be receiver, ILB, and a right tackle, unless you think Howard is a better value as a #2 TE when what we would have otherwise. I certainly wouldn't hate it, but it would have the feel of a luxury pick to me, at least it does right now thinking about it.

If he does what many are expecting at the combine (4.5 forty), I think he's a first rounder. But in this offense that might be more valuable than the #2 WR, especially if he's running faster than most WRs.

[TigeRRUppeRRcut]

It's all about the right tackle IMO. Look at how Cam Newton has all day to throw and russell wilson is running for his life

[pugsnotdrugs19]

It's all about the right tackle IMO. Look at how Cam Newton has all day to throw and russell wilson is running for his life

Recent draft history shows that drafting tackles high doesn't work well at all early on in their career.. Almost think we need to address it in FA.