iwhy is weather forcasting so poor?

[Squalor2]

i am watching "The Greatest Day" and to skip alot of the yadda yadda, meteorology, a weather forecast determined much of normandy landings. science now has more tools but the forecast is just as vague.
why isnt the weather forecast better than the farmers almanac?

[Squalor2]

i am watching "The Greatest Day" and to skip alot of the yadda yadda, meteorology, a weather forecast determined much of normandy landings. science now has more tools but the forecast is just as vague.
why isnt the weather forecast better than the farmers almanac?

[Buehler445]

It's a big, highly variable planet.

There are a lot of thermodynamic variables to manage.

[Buehler445]

Q

[SAUTO]

Why are your thread posting skills so poor?

[SAUTO]

iwhy are your thread posting skills so poor?

[Toby Waller]

http://images2.fanpop.com/images/photos/7400000/Abe-Simpson-walking-in-and-out-the-simpsons-7414427-320-240.gif

[JoeyChuckles]

did you repost to fix a spelling error?

Mods what's the precedent on adding duplicate threads to the hall of classics? Better get out the rule book.

[JoeyChuckles]

This thread is useless without iwhy

[JoeyChuckles]

A: Because it was never taught good money management skills.

[Squalor2]

It's a big, highly variable planet.

There are a lot of thermodynamic variables to manage.

thats true, one looks for dark land to get thermals on a sunny day for lift. with all of the stations noaa has available, do you think a forecast 50 miles ahead would easier to predict?

[Bearcat]

Have you ever watched the weather on a map? Shit pops up, disappears, pops up again. And IIRC, the biggest misunderstanding is that percent chance of precipitation is just that... it's not "90% chance of 8 inches of snow" it's "90% chance of snow, WTF knows but it could be up to 8 inches".

And there's the bias of remembering when they're wrong while not thinking about all the days they're right.

[ptlyon]

It's a big, highly variable planet.

There are a lot of thermodynamic variables to manage.

This. It's not like predicting the NFL. Sheesh.

[Kman34]

i am watching "The Greatest Day" and to skip alot of the yadda yadda, meteorology, a weather forecast determined much of normandy landings. science now has more tools but the forecast is just as vague.
why isnt the weather forecast better than the farmers almanac?

Dude I think you meant "The Longest Day" on TMC....Jeez get something right..

[Squalor2]

iwhy are your thread posting skills so poor?

met a girl from iowa?

[JoeyChuckles]

....do you think a forecast 50 miles ahead would easier to predict?

I've written numerous responses to this the past few minutes and deleted each one. I literally do not know how to formulate a response to this statement.

[JoeyChuckles]

The threads have been merged. Future posters you have been warned.

[Squalor2]

Have you ever watched the weather on a map? Shit pops up, disappears, pops up again. And IIRC, the biggest misunderstanding is that percent chance of precipitation is just that... it's not "90% chance of 8 inches of snow" it's "90% chance of snow, WTF knows but it could be up to 8 inches".

And there's the bias of remembering when they're wrong while not thinking about all the days they're right.

i can see that. that is the same rationale used on d-day. make the best forecast with knowledge available. we have shitloads more tech, yet a forecast is just as iffy.

[Squalor2]

I've written numerous responses to this the past few minutes and deleted each one. I literally do not know how to formulate a response to this statement.


twins?

[SAUTO]

i can see that. that is the same rationale used on d-day. make the best forecast with knowledge available. we have shitloads more tech, yet a forecast is just as iffy.

Most times shit just happens.

[Toby Waller]

http://www.notbored.org/weather-forecast.jpg

[Fish]

Climate change, bro. It's like, "Bwaahhhh".

[cdcox]

Because the weather is a chaotic system. Imperceptibly small differences, such as the difference between 1 and 1.000000000000000000000001, in any of the billions of data that define the initial conditions, result in divergent future predictions. Google "the butterfly effect."

[Squalor2]

Climate change, bro. It's like, .

dang it fish, talking about science making weather better, you go "Bwaahhhh" and i see a 80 year old with copd trying to motorboat a 90 year old.

i'd buy you a beer.

[Discuss Thrower]

Because the weather is a chaotic system. Imperceptibly small differences, such as the difference between 1 and 1.000000000000000000000001, in any of the billions of data that define the initial conditions, result in divergent future predictions. Google "the butterfly effect."

Y u bringing Ashton Kutcher into this brah

[Toby Waller]

http://www.reactiongifs.us/wp-content/uploads/2013/06/raining_david_tennant_nosedrip.gif

[HonestChieffan]

weather seems to be different different times. but is still weather.

[Bugeater]

Have you ever watched the weather on a map? Shit pops up, disappears, pops up again. And IIRC, the biggest misunderstanding is that percent chance of precipitation is just that... it's not "90% chance of 8 inches of snow" it's "90% chance of snow, WTF knows but it could be up to 8 inches".

And there's the bias of remembering when they're wrong while not thinking about all the days they're right.
This. This. This.

And I've found that our local guys are far more accurate than all the useless national ones like weather.com, weatherbug and whatever.

[Demonpenz]

Weather...shit man how does that work?

[Squalor2]

Because the weather is a chaotic system. Imperceptibly small differences, such as the difference between 1 and 1.000000000000000000000001, in any of the billions of data that define the initial conditions, result in divergent future predictions. Google "the butterfly effect."

i don't see weather as that divergent in that model. for me the butterfly effect is more of a theorem here. weather is static in as much as it has has happened and is quantified.

if i call my sister 10 miles from here and say its raining, and 5 minutes later she calls me back and says it just started to rain it is entropic. if i call my nephew 1500 miles away it probably wont rain on him.
i think weather should be a wee bit skilled.

[Squalor2]

weather seems to be different different times. but is still weather.

you shabby republican. if you got shot in the butt with 22 bird shot, id let you but me a beer and id buy you a drink.

[HonestChieffan]

i don't see weather as that divergent in that model. for me the butterfly effect is more of a theorem here. weather is static in as much as it has has happened and is quantified.

if i call my sister 10 miles from here and say its raining, and 5 minutes later she calls me back and says it just started to rain it is entropic. if i call my nephew 1500 miles away it probably wont rain on him.
i think weather should be a wee bit skilled.

This is why Patton had a weather prayer written during the Bulge. His sister was shit at weather but she was hell at chocolate cake. 1500 miles ain't squat when we are talking lightning and fucking thunder. Thor's power will not be denied. Honeydew melons at sunrise.

[Bearcat]

This. This. This.

And I've found that our local guys are far more accurate than all the useless national ones like weather.com, weatherbug and whatever.

The funny thing is when the last Snowpocalypse hit Omaha, but not KC, people here were saying "we were supposed to get 8-10 inches of snow, but now it's just going to rain a little!!".... but, they were talking about the 7+ day forecast when the storm was off the coast of Japan, the forecast had changed to rain like 4 days prior.

People are so obsessed with the weather, they actually think the news should know what will happen with a storm that's halfway around the fucking world.... when in fact they aren't that terrible at predicting 2-3 days out. And even then, a storm pops up out of no where 50 miles east of KC instead of 5 miles west, and the weather predictors are morons. But, people are terrible at math, too, so they can say 60% and they're idiots if it doesn't happen.

[cdcox]

i don't see weather as that divergent in that model. for me the butterfly effect is more of a theorem here. weather is static in as much as it has has happened and is quantified.

if i call my sister 10 miles from here and say its raining, and 5 minutes later she calls me back and says it just started to rain it is entropic. if i call my nephew 1500 miles away it probably wont rain on him.
i think weather should be a wee bit skilled.

Model, theorem, static, entropy don't make any sense in the way you used them in your post.

[Bugeater]

Model, theorem, static, entropy don't make any sense in the way you used them in your post.
That's because you are looking for sense where there is none.

[Squalor2]

This is why Patton had a weather prayer written during the Bulge. His sister was shit at weather but she was hell at chocolate cake. 1500 miles ain't squat when we are talking lightning and ****ing thunder. Thor's power will not be denied. Honeydew melons at sunrise.


welp. opiates and booze. not shitting you but my best breakfast is a half cantaloupe with french vanilla ice cream.

[Bearcat]

Model, theorem, static, entropy don't make any sense in the way you used them in your post.

Apparently English is even harder than math.

[Squalor2]

Model, theorem, static, entropy don't make any sense in the way you used them in your post.

how you have used them? i'm just talking weather. you are known for your site based on math here.

[Chief Northman]

Why is weather forecasting so poor? Because of douche bags like Weatherman Kumke.
That's why.

[HonestChieffan]

<div id="fb-root"></div><script>(function(d, s, id) { var js, fjs = d.getElementsByTagName(s)[0]; if (d.getElementById(id)) return; js = d.createElement(s); js.id = id; js.src = "//connect.facebook.net/en_US/sdk.js#xfbml=1&version=v2.3"; fjs.parentNode.insertBefore(js, fjs);}(document, 'script', 'facebook-jssdk'));</script><div class="fb-post" data-href="https://www.facebook.com/NWSKansasCity/posts/943282872393023:0" data-width="500"><div class="fb-xfbml-parse-ignore"><blockquote cite="https://www.facebook.com/NWSKansasCity/posts/943282872393023:0"><p>Thought we&#039;d lift the curtain a bit and show you why we rarely if ever forecast snow amounts on storm systems more than...</p>Posted by <a href="https://www.facebook.com/NWSKansasCity/">US National Weather Service Kansas City Missouri</a> on&nbsp;<a href="https://www.facebook.com/NWSKansasCity/posts/943282872393023:0">Thursday, February 25, 2016</a></blockquote></div></div>

[cdcox]

how you have used them? i'm just talking weather. you are known for your site based on math here.

A theorem is a mathematical statement proven to be true. I believe you meant "theory". But even if you did, you are using "theory" incorrectly. You probably intended something along the lines of hypothesis. However, the chaotic nature of weather isn't disputed by any knowledgeable atmospheric scientist.

When you say that weather is static, you might as well say that an avalanche is static.

I'm not even going to try to figure out what you were trying to communicate with "entropic".

[listopencil]

Squalor2, the kind of forecasting you're contemplating simply is... it's not possible. If there is one thing the history of forecasting has taught us it's that weather will not be contained. Weather breaks free, it expands to new territories and crashes through barriers, painfully, maybe even dangerously, but, uh... well, there it is. I'm, I'm simply saying that weather, uh... finds a way.

[Psyko Tek]

iwhy are your thread posting skills so poor?

why are his thread posting skills so poor?

[KCUnited]

Damn near killed her!

[Chieficus]

There's a few of us weather guys on here (meaning there owner of a meteorology degree, like me; and we have at least one actual practicing forecaster--haven't seen him post in this thread), and the best answer is essentially this one:

It's a big, highly variable planet.

There are a lot of thermodynamic variables to manage.

Yes, technology is a whole lot better than decades ago, but weather is a 3D beast with lots of movement. We already don't have an abundance of data collection sites over land in our own country, even fewer radiosonde sites to give us as accurate as possible info in upper layers, and even fewer sites throughout the oceans.

Satellite data can only provide so much. The equations are complex and several assumptions are made to ease the complexity. And a lot of data gaps to fill in with all sorts of variables (corn fields produce a different environment than deserts in impacting surface level happenings, even).

With all that said: Forecasting ultimately comes down to an educated guess even with today's technology. Some local guys are better at it than others b/c instinct and experience helps them see certain issues or patterns, but it's still a complex beast to work through.

[morphius]

A few years back I read an article about the KC weatherman, and I believe at 3 days out, when predicting rain, they were right 50% of the time. I've thought about flipping a coin on 3 day rain forecast to see if the coin was more accurate, lol.

[Lzen]

Pffftt.....The Farmer's Almanac? Didn't that predict a brutal winter this year?

[Lzen]

I'm surprised nobody has mentioned that government. The Harp or whatever they call that thing. :)

[Chieficus]

I'm surprised nobody has mentioned that government. The Harp or whatever they call that thing. :)

Obviously chemtrails and high powered lasers screw everything up, duh.

(happy now?)

:D

[Dave Lane]

I use weather maps and predictions constantly, probably more than anyone here that isn't a daily pilot. I find the 48 hour predictions to be shockingly accurate but i look hour by hour at the data,. You can see the weather patterns and know if you are on the edge of something that could shift.

[HemiEd]

I am astounded at how much weather forecasting has improved in the last twenty to thirty years. If you think it is bad now, you would have hated it back then.

In the Chicago area, you could almost guarantee their forecasts to the hour, seldom were they wrong.
I attributed it to two things. Big market with better equipment/people, and Lake Michigan was like a big "shunt" making the systems more stable.

In Kansas, all bets are off due to flat terrain, Rockies to the west and wind, lots of wind.

[Fish]

I'll never forgive that fucking Gary Lezak promising no chance of rain for that Royals game last year. Fuck you Gary!

[Mennonite]

I agree with the OP. The weather portion of the news is almost worthless. In my area goal seems to be drag out saying "It may rain, it may not" for 10 minutes, and frequently trying to terrify the public by making a .005% chance of severe weather signalling the end of the world as we know it. Multiple raindrops? Get your children and animals to the nearest ark. A snowflake? Snowmageddon. And god forbid something bad does happen. We had some severe flooding a few years ago and the local media ran news stories about it for almost three years. "See?! SEE?! The sky IS falling!"

[BlackHelicopters]

Is English the official language of CP?

[POND_OF_RED]

It all started when we decided to call it Mother Nature. When we personified the weather to be a woman it was destined to be unpredictable.

[Beef Supreme]

Is English the official language of CP?

iwhy you ask?

[Sully]

Ever since they banned rain dances in schools, the weather has gone to shit.

[Buehler445]

I use weather maps and predictions constantly, probably more than anyone here that isn't a daily pilot. I find the 48 hour predictions to be shockingly accurate but i look hour by hour at the data,. You can see the weather patterns and know if you are on the edge of something that could shift.

I bet I watch them close to as much as you do.


One thing about it, they're usually right about the wind in this part of the world. At least 24-48 out. It's the precip they miss on.

[Chieficus]

I use weather maps and predictions constantly, probably more than anyone here that isn't a daily pilot. I find the 48 hour predictions to be shockingly accurate but i look hour by hour at the data,. You can see the weather patterns and know if you are on the edge of something that could shift.

What weather sites do you use?

Since my time as a student down at OU, I've used the tools at weather.cod.edu. For being a tiny program DuPage has some great tools. I love the ability to compare different model runs when doing personal forecasting (mostly during storm chase season for me).

[Stewie]

I'll never forgive that fucking Gary Lezak promising no chance of rain for that Royals game last year. Fuck you Gary!

His LRC theory has gone to shit the past few years. I think he's so obsessed with the LRC that common sense has flown out the window.

Last summer's LRC prediction?:

We will have a warm week the first part of July and another the first week of August. Really? You spent hours coming up with that?

This winter's LRC prediction?:

We will have several snowfalls this winter and the LRC predicts 23" of snow.

First of all, 22" of snow is the average. He's really going out on a limb! Secondly, his LRC temperature forecasts have been WAY off!

We've had less than 8" of snow in KC this year and getting another inch or two is looking bleak.

This reminds me of someone commenting on Jimmy the Greek's NFL predictions.

"He was horrible predicting last week's/month's/year's games... why do the networks roll him out for more predictions?"