frozenchief
08-31-2016, 02:22 PM
Good article from Football Outsiders on what it takes to build a Super Bowl winning team. I'd include the whole article but: 1) it's long, and 2) it includes tables which tend to get messed up in formatting.
Here's the intro:
While the NFL would love to promote every team as having an equal opportunity of winning the Super Bowl, we know the odds are rarely ever 1-in-32. Recent history is a solid predictor of which teams have a much higher or much lower chance of going the distance this season.
The Oakland Raiders are a trendy dark horse in 2016, but should you really trust a team that went 7-9 in 2015 and has not had a winning season since 2002? In the DVOA era (since 1989), 39 of the 54 Super Bowl participants (72.2 percent) made the playoffs in the previous season. Only six teams (11.1 percent) followed a losing season with a Super Bowl appearance. This sounded good a day ago for the Minnesota Vikings, another trendy 2016 pick, but the terrible news about Teddy Bridgewater's torn ACL puts a real damper on their season before it even starts.
But even if Bridgewater was healthy, are the Vikings really great enough on either side of the ball to be a top contender? Last season, Minnesota finished 16th in offensive DVOA and 14th on defense. Strong special teams (ranked fourth) aside, that is average at worst and balanced at best.
Is balance really the best model for building a championship team? A look at all Super Bowl winners or the recent DVOA dynasty in Seattle would suggest an obvious answer. However, in the salary-cap era, building and sustaining a team with great players on both sides of the ball is tougher. Only 26 teams in the DVOA era have finished in the top five in both offense and defense. The first three teams to do so (1989 49ers, 1991 Redskins, and 1992 Cowboys) all won the Super Bowl, but the last dozen teams have compiled an 0-4 Super Bowl record.
While balance sounds great, the Broncos did just win Super Bowl 50 with the No. 25 offense and No. 1 defense. The only other champion since 1989 with that much imbalance also featured Peyton Manning at quarterback, but the 2006 Colts paired the No. 1 offense with the No. 25 defense.
So how should a team go about building a Super Bowl winner today? There may always be alternative methods, but over this three-part study we will identify the trends that were most significant in helping achieve the ultimate goal of every NFL team.
article is here:
http://www.footballoutsiders.com/stat-analysis/2016/building-super-bowl-winner-part-i
Here's the intro:
While the NFL would love to promote every team as having an equal opportunity of winning the Super Bowl, we know the odds are rarely ever 1-in-32. Recent history is a solid predictor of which teams have a much higher or much lower chance of going the distance this season.
The Oakland Raiders are a trendy dark horse in 2016, but should you really trust a team that went 7-9 in 2015 and has not had a winning season since 2002? In the DVOA era (since 1989), 39 of the 54 Super Bowl participants (72.2 percent) made the playoffs in the previous season. Only six teams (11.1 percent) followed a losing season with a Super Bowl appearance. This sounded good a day ago for the Minnesota Vikings, another trendy 2016 pick, but the terrible news about Teddy Bridgewater's torn ACL puts a real damper on their season before it even starts.
But even if Bridgewater was healthy, are the Vikings really great enough on either side of the ball to be a top contender? Last season, Minnesota finished 16th in offensive DVOA and 14th on defense. Strong special teams (ranked fourth) aside, that is average at worst and balanced at best.
Is balance really the best model for building a championship team? A look at all Super Bowl winners or the recent DVOA dynasty in Seattle would suggest an obvious answer. However, in the salary-cap era, building and sustaining a team with great players on both sides of the ball is tougher. Only 26 teams in the DVOA era have finished in the top five in both offense and defense. The first three teams to do so (1989 49ers, 1991 Redskins, and 1992 Cowboys) all won the Super Bowl, but the last dozen teams have compiled an 0-4 Super Bowl record.
While balance sounds great, the Broncos did just win Super Bowl 50 with the No. 25 offense and No. 1 defense. The only other champion since 1989 with that much imbalance also featured Peyton Manning at quarterback, but the 2006 Colts paired the No. 1 offense with the No. 25 defense.
So how should a team go about building a Super Bowl winner today? There may always be alternative methods, but over this three-part study we will identify the trends that were most significant in helping achieve the ultimate goal of every NFL team.
article is here:
http://www.footballoutsiders.com/stat-analysis/2016/building-super-bowl-winner-part-i