The First Round QB

[ILChief]

OK, everyone knows it is beyond ridiculous that the Chiefs haven't drafted a QB in round 1 since Todd Blackledge in 1983. As much as I love Derrick Johnson, I can't look at him without thinking of Aaron Rodgers. That got me thinking, how many first round QB's have the other teams taken in that time span? Has every other team taken multiple first round QBs since 1983? Well, here is the breakdown:

Patriots: Drew Bledsoe (93)
Bills: JP Losman (04), EJ Manuel (13)
Jets: Chad Pennington (00), Mark Sanchez (09)
Dolphins: Ryan Tannehill (12)

Steelers: Ben Roethlisberger (04)
Bengals: David Klingler (92), Akili Smith (99), Carson Palmer (03)
Old Browns/Ravens: Kyle Boller (03), Joe Flacco (08)
New Browns: Tim Couch (99), Brady Quinn (07), Branden Weeden (12), Johnny Manziel (14)

Texans: David Carr (02)
Oilers/Titans: Jim Everett (86), Steve McNair (94), Vince Young (06), Jake Locker (11), Marcus Mariota (15)
Jaguars: Byron Leftwich (03), Blaine Gabbert (11), Blake Bortles (14)
Colts: Jeff George (90), Peyton Manning (98), Andrew Luck (12)

Broncos: Tommy Maddox (92), Jay Cutler (06), Tim Tebow (10), Paxton Lynch (16)
Raiders: Todd Marinovich (91), Jamarcus Russell (07)
Chargers: Ryan Leaf (98), Philip Rivers (04)

Cowboys: Troy Aikman (89)
Eagles: Donovan McNabb (99), Carson Wentz (16)
Giants: Eli Manning (04)
Redskins: Heath Shuler (94), Patrick Ramsey (02), Jason Campbell (05), Robert Griffin III (12)

Packers: Aaron Rodgers (05)
Bears: Jim Harbaugh (87), Cade McNown (99), Rex Grossman (03)
Vikings: Daunte Culpepper (99), Christian Ponder (11), Teddy Bridgewater (14)
Lions: Chuck Long (86), Andre Ware (90), Joey Harrington (02), Matt Stafford (09)

Panthers: Kerry Collins (94), Cam Newton (11)
Bucs: Vinny Testaverde (87), Trent Dilfer (94), Josh Freeman (09), Jameis Winston (15)
Saints: None
Falcons: Chris Miller (87), Michael Vick (01), Matt Ryan (08)

49ers: Jim Druckenmiller (97), Alex Smith (05)
Seahawks: Dan McGwire (91), Rick Mirer (93)
Rams: Sam Bradford (10), Jared Goff (16)
Cardinals: Kelly Stouffer (87), Matt Leinart (06)

Notes:
The Saints are the only other team to not draft a first round QB in that time (although they have had a franchise QB for a decade plus so they haven't really needed one)

The teams that have only drafted one QB in that time frame have all had a franchise QB for an extended period (except the Texans and they are a new team)

Embarassing

[ILChief]

KC locals, feel free to print thousands of copies of this post and scatter them throughout the Chiefs front office parking lot and buildings

[notorious]

http://i255.photobucket.com/albums/hh145/xmrsdanifilth/Random%20Cool%20Stuff/Fire_Window_Fall.gif

[Tombstone RJ]

OK, everyone knows it is beyond ridiculous that the Chiefs haven't drafted a QB in round 1 since Todd Blackledge in 1983. As much as I love Derrick Johnson, I can't look at him without thinking of Aaron Rodgers. That got me thinking, how many first round QB's have the other teams taken in that time span? Has every other team taken multiple first round QBs since 1983? Well, here is the breakdown:

Patriots: Drew Bledsoe (93)
Bills: JP Losman (04), EJ Manuel (13)
Jets: Chad Pennington (00), Mark Sanchez (09)
Dolphins: Ryan Tannehill (12)

Steelers: Ben Roethlisberger (04)
Bengals: David Klingler (92), Akili Smith (99), Carson Palmer (03)
Old Browns/Ravens: Kyle Boller (03), Joe Flacco (08)
New Browns: Tim Couch (99), Brady Quinn (07), Branden Weeden (12), Johnny Manziel (14)

Texans: David Carr (02)
Oilers/Titans: Jim Everett (86), Steve McNair (94), Vince Young (06), Jake Locker (11), Marcus Mariota (15)
Jaguars: Byron Leftwich (03), Blaine Gabbert (11), Blake Bortles (14)
Colts: Jeff George (90), Peyton Manning (98), Andrew Luck (12)

Broncos: Tommy Maddox (92), Jay Cutler (06), Tim Tebow (10), Paxton Lynch (16)
Raiders: Todd Marinovich (91), Jamarcus Russell (07)
Chargers: Ryan Leaf (98), Philip Rivers (04)

Cowboys: Troy Aikman (89)
Eagles: Donovan McNabb (99), Carson Wentz (16)
Giants: Eli Manning (04)
Redskins: Heath Shuler (94), Patrick Ramsey (02), Jason Campbell (05), Robert Griffin III (12)

Packers: Aaron Rodgers (05)
Bears: Jim Harbaugh (87), Cade McNown (99), Rex Grossman (03)
Vikings: Daunte Culpepper (99), Christian Ponder (11), Teddy Bridgewater (14)
Lions: Chuck Long (86), Andre Ware (90), Joey Harrington (02), Matt Stafford (09)

Panthers: Kerry Collins (94), Cam Newton (11)
Bucs: Vinny Testaverde (87), Trent Dilfer (94), Josh Freeman (09), Jameis Winston (15)
Saints: None
Falcons: Chris Miller (87), Michael Vick (01), Matt Ryan (08)

49ers: Jim Druckenmiller (97), Alex Smith (05)
Seahawks: Dan McGwire (91), Rick Mirer (93)
Rams: Sam Bradford (10), Jared Goff (16)
Cardinals: Kelly Stouffer (87), Matt Leinart (06)

Notes:
The Saints are the only other team to not draft a first round QB in that time (although they have had a franchise QB for a decade plus so they haven't really needed one)

The teams that have only drafted one QB in that time frame have all had a franchise QB for an extended period (except the Texans and they are a new team)

Embarassing

Jim Everett played for the Rams, not the Oilers/Titans...

[ILChief]

Jim Everett played for the Rams, not the Oilers/Titans...


He was drafted by Houston

[IowaChiefs83]

Of that long list only seven first round QBs have won a SB. While several have set franchises back for years.

[kcchiefsus]

Of that long list only seven first round QBs have won a SB. While several have set franchises back for years.

So where do you suggest we get a QB? Should we keep doing what we've been doing? That sure seems to be working...

[ILChief]

Of that long list only seven first round QBs have won a SB. While several have set franchises back for years.


Carl?

[splatbass]

Notice some of the worst teams have drafted the most?

Sent from my K88 using Tapatalk

[Mr. Laz]

So where do you suggest we get a QB? Should we keep doing what we've been doing? That sure seems to be working...
No, I believe his point is that drafting a GOOD QB is more important than drafting a 1st round QB just to look cool.

I'm all for drafting the best QB we can possibly get our hands on. If that means trading up, trade down or whatever it takes. I'm more concerned about the Chiefs seeming lack of desire to search for a stud QB instead of settling for an ok quarterback.

The round is making less and less difference in the NFL all the time.

[ILChief]

[QUOTE=splatbass;12695828]Notice some of the worst teams have drafted the most?

Sent from my K88 using Tapatalk[/QUOT

Because they picked bad ones?

[ILChief]

if we pick one and he's a bust, so be it. People are fine with DL busts like Tyson Jackson or Ryan Sims. That didn't stop us from drafting DL.

[Tombstone RJ]

He was drafted by Houston

Did not know that but that said Eli Manning was drafted by the Chargers and Rivers by the NYG...

[Eureka]

Of that long list only seven first round QBs have won a SB. While several have set franchises back for years.

Most SB winning QB's were drafted by their team!

[ILChief]

Did not know that but that said Eli Manning was drafted by the Chargers and Rivers by the NYG...

Maybe because Eli and Rivers were traded for each other at the draft? Not sure. Oh well, swap Eli and Rivers. Doesn't change much

[TribalElder]

The saints way


First round qb way too risky

Omaha Omaha

[Rain Man]

Did not know that but that said Eli Manning was drafted by the Chargers and Rivers by the NYG...

Eli was a spoiled brat crybaby and Rivers manned up.

[keg in kc]

It'd be interesting to see it taken through 3 rounds. I think the focus is a little too intent on the first round. If you're taking a guy in the second you're still looking for him to start at some point. Third round is more borderline, but you're probably still not thinking 'career backup at best' at that range. Forth and later, I'd say you're not really spending much at that point in either picks or money, so I don't consider it enough effort that it's actively trying.

And that's the issue here: for nearly 35 years we haven't been trying. At all. One retread after another, with the occasional low draft pick thrown at somebody who isn't likely to ever do anything.

I just want to try something else. For all the talk about how mising on high picks have hurt teams and how, occasionally, somebody Dilfer's their way to a title, the fact is that we've tried the 'safe' route through three different GM's and a handful of head coaches and netted exactly zero conference championships, much less Superbowls.

It. Hasn't. Worked.

So, seriously, what do we lose by trying something else for a bit? Is the franchise going to be set back in some way? Set back how, exactly? The'll miss out on the dynasty they haven't had anyway?

Doing the same thing over and over and expecting different results...

[Mr. Laz]

The saints way


First round qb way too risky

Omaha Omaha
Just silly.

It's not even risky to draft a QB in the 1st round anymore. Why do idiots keep saying this crap? It used to be risky when teams had to pay 50 million dollars to a 1st round QB.

Now drafting a QB in the 1st round isn't much different than any other position.

We will draft a QB in the 1st round as soon as Andy Reid considers the QB position to be a high enough need for the team to warrant a 1st round pick.

Right now I see no indication that Reid isn't happy with Alex Smith.

That's has nothing to do with risk.

[DaneMcCloud]

Eli was a spoiled brat crybaby and Rivers manned up.

And the results were excellent for San Diego.

They no longer have a team, have repeatedly landed in 4th place and will play in a soccer stadium that seats 30,000 for two years, at least.

Eli won.

[DaFace]

On the other hand, there is a counterargument here that many of the teams that have taken tons of first round QB's and haven't amounted to jack shit.

[stumppy]

The saints way


First round qb way too risky

Omaha Omaha
The Saints way ? Hell, that's the Chiefs way. The Saints just got lucky when the opportunity to sign D.B. came along.

What's the risk ? Ending up with a QB that doesn't take you through the playoffs to the Super Bowl ?
Passing up on other 1st round talent that could help the team ? Help the team what ? Be almost good enough to make it through the playoffs to the Super Bowl ?

[stumppy]

On the other hand, there is a counterargument here that many of the teams that have taken tons of first round QB's and haven't amounted to jack shit.

Reminds me of the old saying " I would rather try and fail than never have tried at all".

[KC_Lee]

On the other hand, there is a counterargument here that many of the teams that have taken tons of first round QB's and haven't amounted to jack shit.

You can say that about almost any position regarding first round picks, with the exception of punters and kickers.

For example; why draft a LT in the first round since Trezell Jenkins was a bust, have to wait for the next Orlando Pace to come around before you draft one in the first round.

[KC_Lee]

Of that long list only seven first round QBs have won a SB. While several have set franchises back for years.

Given the current rookie salary cap that is less of argument then it was just a few years back.

[New World Order]

3 of the 4 teams that are playing this weekend have quarterbacks that were drafted in the first round.

[KC_Lee]

3 of the 4 teams that are playing this weekend have quarterbacks that were drafted in the first round.

And all 4 are starting QBs that they drafted themselves. Must be some sort of fluke, like all 1 seeds making it to the Final Four, it's so rare.

[stumppy]

3 of the 4 teams that are playing this weekend have quarterbacks that were drafted in the first round.

That can't be right. It's too risky for teams to draft a QB in the 1st round. I read that on Chiefs Planet several times so it must be true.

[Rain Man]

I'm counting 72 quarterbacks taken by 31 teams (more or less), which amounts to 2.3 quarterbacks taken on average. So we're missing essentially two quarterbacks who should've been on our roster.

Of those 72, if I work backwards through time and pick the 24th and 48th as our two (assuming that we drafted at even time intervals throughout that period, those two quarterbacks would be Joe Flacco and Akili Smith. The Akili era would've been challenging, but I wouldn't mind having Joe Flacco, I guess.

We need to start asking the question. "Where is our Flacco?"

[splatbass]

if we pick one and he's a bust, so be it. People are fine with DL busts like Tyson Jackson or Ryan Sims. That didn't stop us from drafting DL.

Who was fine with them?

[stumppy]

I'm counting 72 quarterbacks taken by 31 teams (more or less), which amounts to 2.3 quarterbacks taken on average. So we're missing essentially two quarterbacks who should've been on our roster.

Of those 72, if I work backwards through time and pick the 24th and 48th as our two (assuming that we drafted at even time intervals throughout that period, those two quarterbacks would be Joe Flacco and Akili Smith. The Akili era would've been challenging, but I wouldn't mind having Joe Flacco, I guess.

We need to start asking the question. "Where is our Flacco?"

The Chiefs have decided signing a Flacid is a better way to go than drafting a Flacco.

[KC_Lee]

We need to start asking the question. "Where is our Flacco?"


Here you go...

<iframe width="560" height="315" src="https://www.youtube.com/embed/cVikZ8Oe_XA" frameborder="0" allowfullscreen></iframe>

Oh, you said Flacco, not Falco...my mistake.

[splatbass]

3 of the 4 teams that are playing this weekend have quarterbacks that were drafted in the first round.

One of the teams that was eliminated last weekend has a QB that was drafted 1.1.

[KC_Lee]

One of the teams that was eliminated last weekend has a QB that was drafted 1.1.

And said team has never, in its history, ever drafted and developed their own starting QB. And said team has a consistent history of being one and done in the playoffs.

Correlation & Causation?

[Rain Man]

Three teams playing this weekend have drafted first-round quarterbacks since 2004. However, 21 of the teams that have been eliminated have drafted first-round quarterbacks since 2004. Obviously from these figures, drafting a first-round quarterback hurts your chances.

[Hammock Parties]

The Chiefs have four playoff wins since 1970.

Since 1970, there have been 19 quarterbacks taken in the first round with either more playoff wins than the Chiefs, or a Super Bowl.

Those 19 quarterbacks have accounted for 25 of the last 46 Super Bowl wins.

Please, Chiefs. Please.

[splatbass]

It isn't about drafting a 1st Round QB, it is about drafting the RIGHT QB for your team. Whatever round that is in. You shouldn't draft a QB just because it is the 1st round. Let's not forget in 2014 Johnny Manziel was drafted in the 1st and Derek Carr was drafted in the 2nd. This fixation on the 1st round is ridiculous.

[kcxiv]

Of that long list only seven first round QBs have won a SB. While several have set franchises back for years.

well, we havent won shit in that time so we have been set back what is it now 24 years? I mean, what's worse then that?

[SAGA45]

The Chiefs have four playoff wins since 1970.


/my life]

[splatbass]

what's worse then that?

Thread after thread after thread of anti-Alex Smith crybabies?

[cdcox]

We have teams that are bad at quarterback. We have teams that are good at quarterback. Two conclusions are abundantly obvious:

1) The Chiefs are really bad at quarterback.
2) Don't be bad at quarterback.

I'm talking to you, Clarke.

[bricks]

Chiefs suck.

What an incompetent franchise. I don't think they understand the positive correlational relationship between a great quarterback and a championship.

[New World Order]

One of the teams that was eliminated last weekend has a QB that was drafted 1.1.


3 of the 4 that are alive have quarterbacks that were drafted by their team in the first round.

[LiveSteam]

The Chiefs have four playoff wins since 1970.

Since 1970, there have been 19 quarterbacks taken in the first round with either more playoff wins than the Chiefs, or a Super Bowl.

Those 19 quarterbacks have accounted for 25 of the last 46 Super Bowl wins.

Please, Chiefs. Please.
Hard to argue against this.
KC needs some ballers & game changers at the receiver position. Along with a Q/B with a big arm.

[stumppy]

I wonder what this list would look like if it included QBs taken in the first 2 rounds.

Then again, maybe it's best we don't look and see. Grown men logged on to a website about football should not be weeping.

[Dave Lane]

Carl?

OK I LOL'd

[ILChief]

It isn't about drafting a 1st Round QB, it is about drafting the RIGHT QB for your team. Whatever round that is in. You shouldn't draft a QB just because it is the 1st round. Let's not forget in 2014 Johnny Manziel was drafted in the 1st and Derek Carr was drafted in the 2nd. This fixation on the 1st round is ridiculous.

We've drafted one second round qb in that time frame

[ILChief]

Of that long list only seven first round QBs have won a SB. While several have set franchises back for years.

You know what else sets franchises back years? Elvis Grbac and Matt Cassel

[Hammock Parties]

Chiefs playoff wins since Carl and Marty took over: 4

QBs drafted in the first two rounds with more playoff wins since then: 12

Total playoff wins by those QBs: 90

Total SB wins: 14 of the last 28

So...what odds do you want to play going forward?

[ILChief]

Chiefs playoff wins since Carl and Marty took over: 4

QBs drafted in the first two rounds with more playoff wins since then: 12

Total playoff wins by those QBs: 90

Total SB wins: 14 of the last 28

So...what odds do you want to play going forward?

Exactly, why go out of your way to make things harder on yourself

[Molitoth]

No, I believe his point is that drafting a GOOD QB is more important than drafting a 1st round QB just to look cool.

I'm all for drafting the best QB we can possibly get our hands on. If that means trading up, trade down or whatever it takes. I'm more concerned about the Chiefs seeming lack of desire to search for a stud QB instead of settling for an ok quarterback.

The round is making less and less difference in the NFL all the time.

:clap::clap::clap:

[ILChief]

If I get time I will add second rounders to the OP. Names you will see include Brett Favre, Drew Breese, Derek Carr, and Pat Barnes

[KC_Lee]

If I get time I will add second rounders to the OP. Names you will see include Brett Favre, Drew Breese, Derek Carr, and Pat Barnes

Mike Elkins, Matt Blundin.

[ILChief]

Mike Elkins, Matt Blundin.

I got blundin and Barnes confused

[Ebolapox]

I got blundin and Barnes confused

barnes was a fourth rounder, IIRC, who was tony gonzalez' college QB.

[Amnorix]

The unfortunate reality is that you need to get lucky to get a great QB, and nowadays the NFL -- due to various rules changes -- have made it VERY hard to be in contention for winning the SB if you DON'T have a great QB.

Lucky in that either someone NOBODY thinks is going to be all that slides to you (Brady, Rodgers, Wilson), or in that you are the worst team in the NFL **AND** an elite QB is available at the top of the draft that year (Peyton, Luck (?) etc.).

The NFL has made it harder to win with defense, and harder to win with special teams, which narrows the focus to winning via offense, which invariably means through the QB. The 1980s NFC East dominated but not through exceptional QB play. Simms and those nobodies that Gibbs won with after Thiesman weren't anyone's idea of Montana or Marino.

There has also been a decline in the quality of coaching, IMHO. Bedard wrote a long piece on this for MMQB a while back. In the 80s you had guys like Walsh, Gibbs, Shula, Parcells, Bud Grant, Landry and others butting heads. Now there isn't a single person on the planet that doesn't think Belichick is far and away #1. How many other HOF coaches are roaming hte sidelines right now? Pete Carroll maybe. Who else? Sean Payton's star has dimmed. Does anyone think Mike McCarthy is really that awesome? I think highly of John Harbaugh and Bruce Arians, but are they Hall-bound? Bottom line, it's ALOT thinner than the 80s.

So once again, the difference-maker is at the QB position. Just unfortunate, I think, that the importance of the quarterback position has now come to dominate everything in the NFL.

[DaFace]

The unfortunate reality is that you need to get lucky to get a great QB, and nowadays the NFL -- due to various rules changes -- have made it VERY hard to be in contention for winning the SB if you DON'T have a great QB.

Lucky in that either someone NOBODY thinks is going to be all that slides to you (Brady, Rodgers, Wilson), or in that you are the worst team in the NFL **AND** an elite QB is available at the top of the draft that year (Peyton, Luck (?) etc.).

The NFL has made it harder to win with defense, and harder to win with special teams, which narrows the focus to winning via offense, which invariably means through the QB. The 1980s NFC East dominated but not through exceptional QB play. Simms and those nobodies that Gibbs won with after Thiesman weren't anyone's idea of Montana or Marino.

There has also been a decline in the quality of coaching, IMHO. Bedard wrote a long piece on this for MMQB a while back. In the 80s you had guys like Walsh, Gibbs, Shula, Parcells, Bud Grant, Landry and others butting heads. Now there isn't a single person on the planet that doesn't think Belichick is far and away #1. How many other HOF coaches are roaming hte sidelines right now? Pete Carroll maybe. Who else? Sean Payton's star has dimmed. Does anyone think Mike McCarthy is really that awesome? I think highly of John Harbaugh and Bruce Arians, but are they Hall-bound? Bottom line, it's ALOT thinner than the 80s.

So once again, the difference-maker is at the QB position. Just unfortunate, I think, that the importance of the quarterback position has now come to dominate everything in the NFL.

Though I agree on the coaches thing, I've heard some suggestions that a lot of the issue these days is that recent CBAs have severely limited how much time teams can demand of players in practice, so it's much harder to coach guys up.

I could also buy that the game has simply matured to the point that most reasonable ideas have all been tried, so it's hard to be innovative and catch the league off guard anymore.

[Rain Man]

I got blundin and Barnes confused

Blundin was the one who never did anything at all for us.

Or was that Barnes?

[KC_Lee]

Blundin was the one who never did anything at all for us.

Or was that Barnes?

Correct on both counts.

[Amnorix]

Though I agree on the coaches thing, I've heard some suggestions that a lot of the issue these days is that recent CBAs have severely limited how much time teams can demand of players in practice, so it's much harder to coach guys up.

I could also buy that the game has simply matured to the point that most reasonable ideas have all been tried, so it's hard to be innovative and catch the league off guard anymore.


I think alot of it is the power shifting to the players due to increased salary. Very few teams have what the Patriots have -- players that fear their head coach. Usually, if it's between the players and the coach, the coach is the one that will get bounced. Too many high priced contracts, etc. This is a bigger problem in baseball and basketball, due to the guaranteed contracts, but most coaches aren't immune to it even in football.

But in New England, all the players know (1) he ain't leaving until he retires, and (2) if you don't perform, you get your ass shipped to Cleveland. Literally. They also believe and buy into the system due to the SBs he won.

The other thing Belichick does, better than anyone else, is play players based purely on merit. If the undrafted FA is outplaying the 1st round pick, then the undrafted FA gets the playing time. He is immune to media or fans screaming that he wasted a draft pick or whatever. Most GMs/coaches either can't afford the criticism or don't like to hear it, so they give in and play/keep the guy they drafted.

Belichick is very lucky in many ways. Kraft is a hands-off owner, and he bought himself so much goodwill by winning a few SBs early that he became immune to criticism. Without those SBs, he could act exactly the same but might've been bounced.

[SithCeNtZ]

Though I agree on the coaches thing, I've heard some suggestions that a lot of the issue these days is that recent CBAs have severely limited how much time teams can demand of players in practice, so it's much harder to coach guys up.

I could also buy that the game has simply matured to the point that most reasonable ideas have all been tried, so it's hard to be innovative and catch the league off guard anymore.

I agree with your second point and would contend that he answered the issue of why there aren't more HoF coaches now by his first point, which is that QBs are everything. Free agency and other factors limit how long you could ever hold a unit together outside of the qb position that is so good that you could run off multiple Super Bowls. Without a good QB there will certainly be down years, and you will almost certainly be fired.

[DaWolf]

I think we're the only team in NFL history to draft two Stanford QB's (Steve Stenstrom, Round 4, Kevin Hogan, Round 5) and never see them on the sideline for the franchise...

[scho63]

Raiders: Todd Marinovich (91), Jamarcus Russell (07)

Damn those are two monumental busts!

[Nickhead]

I wonder what this list would look like if it included QBs taken in the first 2 rounds.

Then again, maybe it's best we don't look and see. Grown men logged on to a website about football should not be weeping.

i put the qb's the chiefs could have drafted in my sig. from the chiefs first pick of each draft that were available afterwards. even left out the likes of randall cunningham, jim harbaugh, andy dalton, etc... all these qb's played in a super bowl since blackledge.

[splatbass]

i put the qb's the chiefs could have drafted in my sig. from the chiefs first pick of each draft that were available afterwards. even left out the likes of randall cunningham, jim harbaugh, andy dalton, etc... all these qb's played in a super bowl since blackledge.

Looking at your list I have to point out that while we didn't draft him Gannon was actually on our team and probably would have won the playoff game if Marty hadnt started Grbac. He should be on the list of other teams cast offs instead of at least in addition.

[Hammock Parties]

The unfortunate reality is that you need to get lucky to get a great QB

The Chiefs don't need a GREAT QB.

They just need a good one. Hell, even an AVERAGE one would probably send this fan base into a tizzy.

Our passing yards per game rank the last 10 years:

19th
30th
29th
24th
32nd
25th
30th
25th
20th
20th


YPC

25th
19th
27th
31st
29th
27th
17th (Thanks Bowe)
26th
23rd
27th

Passing TDs

24th
27th
28th
17th
32nd
30th
10th (thanks Bowe)
22nd
10th (thanks Tony)
24th


That's pathetically inept over the long haul.

When you can't even hit LEAGUE AVERAGE passing marks in the last 10 years (save two seasons for passing TDs), you don't need a GREAT quarterback.

You just need an AVERAGE ONE.

[tarheel23]

Just think if we would have had the 49ers 05 pick. Oh wait.

[big nasty kcnut]

Stop blaming Alex he had guys dropped 3 TD passes. That not his fault. You're hoping for luck and we might end up with leaf. Stop blaming him. If we did draft a 1st rounder and he failed would you admit your mistake.

[Nickhead]

Looking at your list I have to point out that while we didn't draft him Gannon was actually on our team and probably would have won the playoff game if Marty hadnt started Grbac. He should be on the list of other teams cast offs instead of at least in addition.

yeah, im aware, but he was still available in the draft. :D

[Nickhead]

Stop blaming Alex he had guys dropped 3 TD passes. That not his fault. You're hoping for luck and we might end up with leaf. Stop blaming him. If we did draft a 1st rounder and he failed would you admit your mistake.

i have no problem drafting a qb in the sixth round, its just time the kc scouts see things others have. i know there is a lot of luck involved too, not saying that. just as i listed the qb's the chiefs could have drafted there are hundreds more they didn't and shouldn't have :D

[TribalElder]

Just silly.

It's not even risky to draft a QB in the 1st round anymore. Why do idiots keep saying this crap? It used to be risky when teams had to pay 50 million dollars to a 1st round QB.

Now drafting a QB in the 1st round isn't much different than any other position.

We will draft a QB in the 1st round as soon as Andy Reid considers the QB position to be a high enough need for the team to warrant a 1st round pick.

Right now I see no indication that Reid isn't happy with Alex Smith.

That's has nothing to do with risk.

The Saints way ? Hell, that's the Chiefs way. The Saints just got lucky when the opportunity to sign D.B. came along.

What's the risk ? Ending up with a QB that doesn't take you through the playoffs to the Super Bowl ?
Passing up on other 1st round talent that could help the team ? Help the team what ? Be almost good enough to make it through the playoffs to the Super Bowl ?

I was joking around

With rookie deal caps drafting the most important and expensive positions like QB is more beneficial than ever.

[splatbass]

The Chiefs don't need a GREAT QB.

They just need a good one. Hell, even an AVERAGE one would probably send this fan base into a tizzy.



Alex Smith is an above average QB. He is a good QB. He is not a great QB, but as you said all we need is a good one. The truth is that if Kelse catches that long pass we win. If Houston isn't covering Brown on the long completion we win. If Reid calls more runs we probably win. If Fisher doesn't hold we might have won. And true, if Smith sees Hill running free we win. But Smith played well enough to win. There are a lot of reasons besides Alex Smith that we lost.

Blaming the QB when so many on the team failed is simplistic.

[Nickhead]

alex is risk averse and doesn't keep his eyes on the field while scrambling. he scrambles to avoid the sack, not extend the play. :D

[Hammock Parties]

If the Chiefs had just drafted the next QB taken with their first 1st round pick every year for the last 15 years they would have had:

Drew Brees (traded pick for Green instad)
Matt Schaub (Junior Siavii)
Aaron Rodgers (Derrick Johnson)
Joe Flacco (Glenn Dorsey)
Andy Dalton (Jon Baldwin)
Teddy Bridgewater (Dee Ford)

If you don't have a QB...just take one..just do it...do it...you won't regret it.

[splatbass]

alex is risk averse and doesn't keep his eyes on the field while scrambling. he scrambles to avoid the sack, not extend the play. :D

There is truth in this. I do think he looks down field when he runs, but I think his first focus is on not getting hit so he misses a lot of open receivers.

[splatbass]

If you don't have a QB...just take one..just do it...do it...you won't regret it.

Moronic.

[kcchiefsus]

If the Chiefs had just drafted the next QB taken with their first 1st round pick every year for the last 15 years they would have had:

Drew Brees (traded pick for Green instad)
Matt Schaub (Junior Siavii)
Aaron Rodgers (Derrick Johnson)
Joe Flacco (Glenn Dorsey)
Andy Dalton (Jon Baldwin)
Teddy Bridgewater (Dee Ford)

If you don't have a QB...just take one..just do it...do it...you won't regret it.

I believe Derek Carr would have also been an option instead of Dee Ford.

[Hammock Parties]

Alex Smith is an above average QB.

Every year he has been here - EVERY SINGLE YEAR - the offense has been BELOW AVERAGE in total yards, passing yards, yards per completion, third down conversation percentage, passing first downs and touchdown passes.

This season, you can add red zone TD percentage and offensive points per game to that list.

He is a below average QB. The only thing that makes people think he isn't is the lack of turnovers.

That just makes him a scared QB. Not a good one, and not above average.

He's a below average QB who is getting worse.

That's not good for this franchise. He is a ticking time bomb.

[splatbass]

I believe Derek Carr would have also been an option instead of Dee Ford.

Hind sight is 20/20. All 32 teams decided he wasn't worth a 1st round pick, so it is hard to blame the Chiefs for passing him up in the 1st.

[splatbass]

Every year he has been here - EVERY SINGLE YEAR - the offense has been BELOW AVERAGE in total yards, passing yards, yards per completion, third down conversation percentage, passing first downs and touchdown passes.

.

So? There are lots of reasons for those stats, they don't show the whole picture. I am certain that most NFL FOs consider him better than average. Only simpletons like you (draft ANY QB in the 1st regardless of whether they are good or not? WTF?) see it otherwise, so I'm pretty confident in my viewpoint.

[Hammock Parties]

Matt Schaub is the worst QB on that list and he once threw for nearly 5000 yards and 30 TD.

Chiefs fans would have thought he was the second coming of Dan Marino.

[Mr. Laz]

Alex Smith is an above average QB. He is a good QB. He is not a great QB, but as you said all we need is a good one. The truth is that if Kelse catches that long pass we win. If Houston isn't covering Brown on the long completion we win. If Reid calls more runs we probably win. If Fisher doesn't hold we might have won. And true, if Smith sees Hill running free we win. But Smith played well enough to win. There are a lot of reasons besides Alex Smith that we lost.

Blaming the QB when so many on the team failed is simplistic.
While I agree with most of what you said, Alex Smith also missed his share of plays himself. He is part of the problem.

Andy Reid is also a part of the issue that many underestimate.

Houston was put in deep cover twice by that idiot Sutton.

If Houston even shows up a little it would have helped dramatically. Once again when it comes to the playoff Houston is nowhere to be found. Only Ford manage to get any pass rush from the outside and that was very little.

Steeler's Oline was better than our Dline. Everyone continues to talk about how great Jones,Poe,Houston,Roche etc are and yet I didn't see much impact against the steelers. LB's were soft as shit.

The entire team is still soft, that shows up in the playoffs when the other teams are good. Good playoff teams don't generally give the game away by committing mistakes. We lived off the opponent's mistakes all year, just like the Schottenheimer teams.

We simply aren't good enough anywhere, not just one position. We don't have a single area of the team that is super bowl worthy ... including our coaching.

[stumppy]

So? There are lots of reasons for those stats, they don't show the whole picture. I am certain that most NFL FOs consider him better than average. Only simpletons like you (draft ANY QB in the 1st regardless of whether they are good or not? WTF?) see it otherwise, so I'm pretty confident in my viewpoint.

Riiiiigggghhhttt.
I'm sure those stats like passing yards, passing first downs, passing td's, passing etc. have nothing to do with the guy who is throwing (or not throwing) every single pass related to them. Probably doesn't matter that the ball is in his hands on EVERY SINGLE OFFENSIVE PLAY IN THE GAME.

[Hammock Parties]

So? There are lots of reasons for those stats, they don't show the whole picture.

The #1 reason: he is Alex Smith.

Alex Smith has NEVER had a season where he was above average in any of those categories.

NEVER.

[Mr. Laz]

Matt Schaub is the worst QB on that list and he once threw for nearly 5000 yards and 30 TD.

Chiefs fans would have thought he was the second coming of Dan Marino.
You just screwed up your own argument.

Shaub is the worst QB on the list .......... he threw for 5k/30td

If Shaub was in this offense he wouldn't have thrown for 5k/30td.

Smith threw for 3,500 yards this year in an offense that was goofy as shit.

[Mr. Laz]

The #1 reason: he is Alex Smith.

Alex Smith has NEVER had a season where he was above average in any of those categories.

NEVER.

I'm smelling a mult

Clayton?

[Hammock Parties]

If Shaub was in this offense he wouldn't have thrown for 5k/30td.


I find that hard to believe considering he did that on a Texans team that had Andre Johnson and a bunch of scabs on offense.

Kevin Walter? Owen Daniels? Steve Slaton? Jacoby Jones?

Trash compared to our skill position players.

[Nickhead]

I find that hard to believe considering he did that on a Texans team that had Andre Johnson and a bunch of scabs on offense.

Kevin Walter? Owen Daniels? Steve Slaton? Jacoby Jones?

Trash compared to our skill position players.

shaub became predictable and fragile. i would never take shaub over alex. so there is that :D

[splatbass]

I'm smelling a mult

Clayton?

Seems like a good possibility. Seems like him. same stupid ideas, same citing fantasy stats to make his moronic points.

[Hammock Parties]

shaub became predictable and fragile. i would never take shaub over alex. so there is that :D

That's a complete unobjective opinion.

Schaub's worst full season was better than Smith's best full season.

[splatbass]

shaub became predictable and fragile. i would never take shaub over alex. so there is that :D

Agreed. Matt Shaub is not starting in the NFL. Does anyone really believe that if we let Alex Smith go he wouldn't be starting somewhere else? There are a lot of teams that would give Smith a starting job, but none that will give Schaub one. Smith>Schaub.

[Hammock Parties]

Seems like a good possibility. Seems like him. same stupid ideas, same citing fantasy stats to make his moronic points.

third down conversion percentage, passing first downs, yards per completion, red zone percentage have nothing to do with fantasy football, and everything to do with being a competent QB in real life

not a mult, just another chiefs fan tired of game managers. look around, there are plenty of us coming out of the woodwork.

[Nickhead]

That's a complete unobjective opinion.

Schaub's worst full season was better than Smith's best full season.

does the fact he has not been a starting qb for the last four years tell you something?

shaub's best season he had 15 int's and the team finished 9-7. that was 8 years ago.

[Hammock Parties]

Agreed. Matt Shaub is not starting in the NFL. Does anyone really believe that if we let Alex Smith go he wouldn't be starting somewhere else? There are a lot of teams that would give Smith a starting job, but none that will give Schaub one. Smith>Schaub.

you're completely missing the point, which is:

the chiefs would have been far better off drafting matt schaub in 2004, instead of picking junior siavii, and given his success relative to the quarterbacks who have played for us since, this fan base would have been in fucking love with him

that is how low the standard is for quarterback play in kansas city, and the franchise's success drafting QBs in the last 15 years

TLDR: If you take the WORST QB the Chiefs had an opportunity to draft in the last 15 years (of the ones that panned out decently or better), he's still better than everyone else that has played for the Chiefs in that time frame.

[Nickhead]

you're completely missing the point, which is:

the chiefs would have been far better off drafting matt schaub in 2004, instead of picking junior siavii, and given his success relative to the quarterbacks who have played for us since, this fan base would have been in fucking love with him

that is how low the standard is for quarterback play in kansas city, and the franchise's success drafting QBs in the last 15 years

TLDR: If you take the WORST QB the Chiefs had an opportunity to draft in the last 15 years (of the ones that panned out decently or better), he's still better than everyone else that has played for the Chiefs in that time frame.

see, here you are trying to pervert the truth. were you to make this a valid argument you would have said the chiefs should have drafted shaub instead of TE kris wilson :D

[splatbass]

you're completely missing the point, which is:

the chiefs would have been far better off drafting matt schaub in 2004, instead of picking junior siavii, and given his success relative to the quarterbacks who have played for us since, this fan base would have been in ****ing love with him

that is how low the standard is for quarterback play in kansas city, and the franchise's success drafting QBs in the last 15 years

TLDR: If you take the WORST QB the Chiefs had an opportunity to draft in the last 15 years (of the ones that panned out decently or better), he's still better than everyone else that has played for the Chiefs in that time frame.

I guarantee he wouldn't be our starter today if we had drafted him in 2004, so I don't see the point in your post. But I guess if we drafted him in the 1st you would think he was the GOAT, since that seems to be the way you judge QBs. Judging by results, I would take Alex Smith over Matt Schaub today, and since it is 2017 not 2004 that is all that really matters to me.

[Hammock Parties]

see, here you are trying to pervert the truth. were you to make this a valid argument you would have said the chiefs should have drafted shaub instead of TE kris wilson :D

i was trying to make a point about the first round, though

the chiefs traded out and picked junior siavii, one of the worst expenditures of a first round pick by this team in it's entire history

they would have been better off staying put and picking the next QB taken which wasn't until the THIRD round

THAT is how low the standard is for some of this franchise's first round picks over the last 15 years

[Hammock Parties]

I guarantee he wouldn't be our starter today if we had drafted him in 2004, so I don't see the point in your post.

the point is that's clearly the right thing to do for this team going forward.

we've been fucking up not drafting QBs for 15 years, if not longer.

time to change that strategy. soon. we literally have nothing to lose, because what we've been doing at the QB position flat out doesn't work, and the last four years are just adding to the mountain of evidence assembled by this franchise.

[Nickhead]

i was trying to make a point about the first round, though

the chiefs traded out and picked junior siavii, one of the worst expenditures of a first round pick by this team in it's entire history

they would have been better off staying put and picking the next QB taken which wasn't until the THIRD round

THAT is how low the standard is for some of this franchise's first round picks over the last 15 years

another thing you are perverting, is the same could be said about flacco. and he has won a superbowl, and the chiefs passed him over twice too.

[stumppy]

the point is that's clearly the right thing to do for this team going forward.

we've been fucking up not drafting QBs for 15 years, if not longer.

time to change that strategy. soon. we literally have nothing to lose, because what we've been doing at the QB position flat out doesn't work, and the last four years are just adding to the mountain of evidence assembled by this franchise.

Actually it's like 32 years.

[ChiefsCountry]

Here is all of the QBs that were selected next after our pick since 2001. When were original pick in the draft before trades.

2001 - Drew Brees
2002 - Patrick Ramsey
2003 - Kyle Bollar
2004 - Matt Schuab
2005 - Aaron Rodgers
2006 - Kellen Clemens
2007 - Kevin Kolb
2008 - Joe Flacco
2009 - Mark Sanchez
2010 - Tim Tebow
2011 - Andy Dalton
2012 - Brandon Weeden
2013 - EJ Manuel
2014 - Teddy Bridgewater
2015 - Garrett Grayson
2016 - Christian Hackenberg

Years in which the QB would have been better than our selection.
2001 Brees > Trent Green trade
2004 Schaub > Junior Savii
2005 Rodgers > Derrick Johnson
2008 Flacco > Dorsey
2009 Sanchez > Tyson Jackson
2011 Dalton > Baldwin
2014 Bridgewater > Ford

Years in which our selection was better
2002 Sims > Ramsey
2003 Larry Johnson > Boller (Polomanu would have been even better)
2006 Tamba Hali > Clemens
2007 Bowe > Kolb
2010 Berry > Tebow
2012 Poe > Weeden
2013 Fisher > Manuel
2015 Peters > Grayson
2016 Jones > Hackenberg

[Hammock Parties]

It really is a shame Vermeil didn't take Brees as his first pick.

It would have been a difficult 5 years with that defense but I'm guessing Breesy would have won a Super Bowl with Herm Edwards coaching up the defense. I actually think that would have been a really good QB-HC combo. A lot like Manning-Dungy.

Brees handing off to prime LJ and chucking it to Bowe and Gonzalez would have been fun.

[Rain Man]

I looked at the list and noticed Rodgers and Roethlisberger as being late first round picks, and I wondered if perhaps late-first picks could be a good value, that perhaps they're guys who were overlooked.

So I made a quick formula to assess overall value. My formula was

V = YP*(%AP+%PB+%ST)*A

where

V = Career Value
YP = Years Played
%AP = Percent of Playing Years Named as All-Pro
%PB = Percent of Playing Years Named as Pro Bowler
%ST = Percent of Playing Years Named as Team's Starter (whether it was their draft team or not)
A = Adjustment for Active Players to Estimate Their Future Playing Years and Estimate Their Full Career

For those interested, I calculated A by looking at the median number of years played by retired players on the list who played longer than the active player had currently played. A adjusted their score proportionally to the median number of years they could be expected to play.

When I did that, here are the overall career values that I calculated. Overall, they seem to be a good match for production:


Pick In Round Name Active-Adjusted Value
1 Peyton Manning 38.0
3 Matt Ryan 20.2
1 Cam Newton 20.0
24 Aaron Rodgers 19.8
11 Ben Roethlisberger 19.4
1 Eli Manning 17.2
4 Philip Rivers 17.2
1 Troy Aikman HOF 17.0
2 Donovan McNabb 17.0
1 Drew Bledsoe 16.0
1 Vinny Testaverde 16.0
1 Andrew Luck 15.4
1 Carson Palmer 15.1
1 Jameis Winston 13.5
5 Kerry Collins 13.0
3 Steve McNair 13.0
18 Joe Flacco 13.0
1 Matthew Stafford 12.0
11 Jay Cutler 11.8
1 Alex Smith 11.7
3 Jim Everett 11.0
26 Jim Harbaugh 11.0
1 Michael Vick 11.0
8 Ryan Tannehill 11.0
1 Jeff George 9.0
2 Marcus Mariota 9.0
3 Blake Bortles 9.0
1 Sam Bradford 8.6
11 Daunte Culpepper 8.0
13 Chris Miller 8.0
5 Mark Sanchez 7.5
2 Carson Wentz 7.0
6 Trent Dilfer 7.0
2 Robert Griffin 6.6
3 Vince Young 6.0
3 Joey Harrington 6.0
18 Chad Pennington 6.0
10 Blaine Gabbert 6.0
25 Jason Campbell 5.0
1 David Carr 5.0
2 Rick Mirer 5.0
1 Tim Couch 4.0
17 Josh Freeman 4.0
19 Kyle Boller 4.0
32 Teddy Bridgewater 3.0
12 Christian Ponder 3.0
7 Byron Leftwich 3.0
16 EJ Manuel 2.8
1 JaMarcus Russell 2.0
3 Heath Shuler 2.0
22 Brady Quinn 2.0
22 J.P. Losman 2.0
22 Rex Grossman 2.0
25 Tommy Maddox 2.0
25 Tim Tebow 1.0
22 Brandon Weeden 1.0
8 Jake Locker 1.0
3 Akili Smith 1.0
6 David Klingler 1.0
12 Chuck Long 1.0
10 Matt Leinart 1.0
32 Patrick Ramsey 1.0
1 Jared Goff 0.0
26 Paxton Lynch 0.0
22 Johnny Manziel 0.0
12 Cade McNown 0.0
2 Ryan Leaf 0.0
26 Jim Druckenmiller 0.0
16 Dan McGwire 0.0
24 Todd Marinovich 0.0
7 Andre Ware 0.0
6 Kelly Stouffer 0.0


35 of these players were top 5 picks. The median top five pick was Michael Vick - 7 years as a starter, 4 pro bowls. 51% of top-five picks had a value above 10, which equates to being an average 10 year starter with no pro bowls or a guy who made 5 pro bowls in 5 seasons and then retired.

16 of these players were taken between Pick 6 and Pick 15. The median QB taken between Picks 6 and 15 was Christian Ponder - 3 years as a starter and 0 pro bowls. 19% of picks in this range had a value above 10.

21 of these players were taken on Pick 16 or later. The median QB taken in this range was J.P. Losman - 2 years as a starter and 0 pro bowls. 16% of picks in this range had a value above 10.

The bottom line, then is that if you take a top-5 pick, there's about a 50 percent chance that he's going to be a long-term starter in the league with success. Outside the top five, there's about a 1 in 6 chance of that, and a greater than 50/50 likelihood that they will be total busts.

By the way, that doesn't mean you shouldn't try. We just have to modulate our expectations that we'll need to draft 6 late first rounders to get 1 10-year starter.

[splatbass]

I looked at the list and noticed Rodgers and Roethlisberger as being late first round picks, and I wondered if perhaps late-first picks could be a good value, that perhaps they're guys who were overlooked.

So I made a quick formula to assess overall value. My formula was

V = YP*(%AP+%PB+%ST)*A

where

V = Career Value
YP = Years Played
%AP = Percent of Playing Years Named as All-Pro
%PB = Percent of Playing Years Named as Pro Bowler
%ST = Percent of Playing Years Named as Team's Starter (whether it was their draft team or not)
A = Adjustment for Active Players to Estimate Their Future Playing Years and Estimate Their Full Career

For those interested, I calculated A by looking at the median number of years played by retired players on the list who played longer than the active player had currently played. A adjusted their score proportionally to the median number of years they could be expected to play.

When I did that, here are the overall career values that I calculated. Overall, they seem to be a good match for production:


Pick In Round Name Active-Adjusted Value
1 Peyton Manning 38.0
3 Matt Ryan 20.2
1 Cam Newton 20.0
24 Aaron Rodgers 19.8
11 Ben Roethlisberger 19.4
1 Eli Manning 17.2
4 Philip Rivers 17.2
1 Troy Aikman HOF 17.0
2 Donovan McNabb 17.0
1 Drew Bledsoe 16.0
1 Vinny Testaverde 16.0
1 Andrew Luck 15.4
1 Carson Palmer 15.1
1 Jameis Winston 13.5
5 Kerry Collins 13.0
3 Steve McNair 13.0
18 Joe Flacco 13.0
1 Matthew Stafford 12.0
11 Jay Cutler 11.8
1 Alex Smith 11.7
3 Jim Everett 11.0
26 Jim Harbaugh 11.0
1 Michael Vick 11.0
8 Ryan Tannehill 11.0
1 Jeff George 9.0
2 Marcus Mariota 9.0
3 Blake Bortles 9.0
1 Sam Bradford 8.6
11 Daunte Culpepper 8.0
13 Chris Miller 8.0
5 Mark Sanchez 7.5
2 Carson Wentz 7.0
6 Trent Dilfer 7.0
2 Robert Griffin 6.6
3 Vince Young 6.0
3 Joey Harrington 6.0
18 Chad Pennington 6.0
10 Blaine Gabbert 6.0
25 Jason Campbell 5.0
1 David Carr 5.0
2 Rick Mirer 5.0
1 Tim Couch 4.0
17 Josh Freeman 4.0
19 Kyle Boller 4.0
32 Teddy Bridgewater 3.0
12 Christian Ponder 3.0
7 Byron Leftwich 3.0
16 EJ Manuel 2.8
1 JaMarcus Russell 2.0
3 Heath Shuler 2.0
22 Brady Quinn 2.0
22 J.P. Losman 2.0
22 Rex Grossman 2.0
25 Tommy Maddox 2.0
25 Tim Tebow 1.0
22 Brandon Weeden 1.0
8 Jake Locker 1.0
3 Akili Smith 1.0
6 David Klingler 1.0
12 Chuck Long 1.0
10 Matt Leinart 1.0
32 Patrick Ramsey 1.0
1 Jared Goff 0.0
26 Paxton Lynch 0.0
22 Johnny Manziel 0.0
12 Cade McNown 0.0
2 Ryan Leaf 0.0
26 Jim Druckenmiller 0.0
16 Dan McGwire 0.0
24 Todd Marinovich 0.0
7 Andre Ware 0.0
6 Kelly Stouffer 0.0


35 of these players were top 5 picks. The median top five pick was Michael Vick - 7 years as a starter, 4 pro bowls. 51% of top-five picks had a value above 10, which equates to being an average 10 year starter with no pro bowls or a guy who made 5 pro bowls in 5 seasons and then retired.

16 of these players were taken between Pick 6 and Pick 15. The median QB taken between Picks 6 and 15 was Christian Ponder - 3 years as a starter and 0 pro bowls. 19% of picks in this range had a value above 10.

21 of these players were taken on Pick 16 or later. The median QB taken in this range was J.P. Losman - 2 years as a starter and 0 pro bowls. 16% of picks in this range had a value above 10.

The bottom line, then is that if you take a top-5 pick, there's about a 50 percent chance that he's going to be a long-term starter in the league with success. Outside the top five, there's about a 1 in 6 chance of that, and a greater than 50/50 likelihood that they will be total busts.

By the way, that doesn't mean you shouldn't try. We just have to modulate our expectations that we'll need to draft 6 late first rounders to get 1 10-year starter.

You need to get out more.

[Rasputin]

I looked at the list and noticed Rodgers and Roethlisberger as being late first round picks, and I wondered if perhaps late-first picks could be a good value, that perhaps they're guys who were overlooked.

So I made a quick formula to assess overall value. My formula was

V = YP*(%AP+%PB+%ST)*A

where

V = Career Value
YP = Years Played
%AP = Percent of Playing Years Named as All-Pro
%PB = Percent of Playing Years Named as Pro Bowler
%ST = Percent of Playing Years Named as Team's Starter (whether it was their draft team or not)
A = Adjustment for Active Players to Estimate Their Future Playing Years and Estimate Their Full Career

For those interested, I calculated A by looking at the median number of years played by retired players on the list who played longer than the active player had currently played. A adjusted their score proportionally to the median number of years they could be expected to play.

When I did that, here are the overall career values that I calculated. Overall, they seem to be a good match for production:


Pick In Round Name Active-Adjusted Value
1 Peyton Manning 38.0
3 Matt Ryan 20.2
1 Cam Newton 20.0
24 Aaron Rodgers 19.8
11 Ben Roethlisberger 19.4
1 Eli Manning 17.2
4 Philip Rivers 17.2
1 Troy Aikman HOF 17.0
2 Donovan McNabb 17.0
1 Drew Bledsoe 16.0
1 Vinny Testaverde 16.0
1 Andrew Luck 15.4
1 Carson Palmer 15.1
1 Jameis Winston 13.5
5 Kerry Collins 13.0
3 Steve McNair 13.0
18 Joe Flacco 13.0
1 Matthew Stafford 12.0
11 Jay Cutler 11.8
1 Alex Smith 11.7
3 Jim Everett 11.0
26 Jim Harbaugh 11.0
1 Michael Vick 11.0
8 Ryan Tannehill 11.0
1 Jeff George 9.0
2 Marcus Mariota 9.0
3 Blake Bortles 9.0
1 Sam Bradford 8.6
11 Daunte Culpepper 8.0
13 Chris Miller 8.0
5 Mark Sanchez 7.5
2 Carson Wentz 7.0
6 Trent Dilfer 7.0
2 Robert Griffin 6.6
3 Vince Young 6.0
3 Joey Harrington 6.0
18 Chad Pennington 6.0
10 Blaine Gabbert 6.0
25 Jason Campbell 5.0
1 David Carr 5.0
2 Rick Mirer 5.0
1 Tim Couch 4.0
17 Josh Freeman 4.0
19 Kyle Boller 4.0
32 Teddy Bridgewater 3.0
12 Christian Ponder 3.0
7 Byron Leftwich 3.0
16 EJ Manuel 2.8
1 JaMarcus Russell 2.0
3 Heath Shuler 2.0
22 Brady Quinn 2.0
22 J.P. Losman 2.0
22 Rex Grossman 2.0
25 Tommy Maddox 2.0
25 Tim Tebow 1.0
22 Brandon Weeden 1.0
8 Jake Locker 1.0
3 Akili Smith 1.0
6 David Klingler 1.0
12 Chuck Long 1.0
10 Matt Leinart 1.0
32 Patrick Ramsey 1.0
1 Jared Goff 0.0
26 Paxton Lynch 0.0
22 Johnny Manziel 0.0
12 Cade McNown 0.0
2 Ryan Leaf 0.0
26 Jim Druckenmiller 0.0
16 Dan McGwire 0.0
24 Todd Marinovich 0.0
7 Andre Ware 0.0
6 Kelly Stouffer 0.0


35 of these players were top 5 picks. The median top five pick was Michael Vick - 7 years as a starter, 4 pro bowls. 51% of top-five picks had a value above 10, which equates to being an average 10 year starter with no pro bowls or a guy who made 5 pro bowls in 5 seasons and then retired.

16 of these players were taken between Pick 6 and Pick 15. The median QB taken between Picks 6 and 15 was Christian Ponder - 3 years as a starter and 0 pro bowls. 19% of picks in this range had a value above 10.

21 of these players were taken on Pick 16 or later. The median QB taken in this range was J.P. Losman - 2 years as a starter and 0 pro bowls. 16% of picks in this range had a value above 10.

The bottom line, then is that if you take a top-5 pick, there's about a 50 percent chance that he's going to be a long-term starter in the league with success. Outside the top five, there's about a 1 in 6 chance of that, and a greater than 50/50 likelihood that they will be total busts.

By the way, that doesn't mean you shouldn't try. We just have to modulate our expectations that we'll need to draft 6 late first rounders to get 1 10-year starter.

I wish they used equations like this to teach algebra I may have learned something. I agree with splatbass you need to get out more RM

[ILChief]

It really is a shame Vermeil didn't take Brees as his first pick.

It would have been a difficult 5 years with that defense but I'm guessing Breesy would have won a Super Bowl with Herm Edwards coaching up the defense. I actually think that would have been a really good QB-HC combo. A lot like Manning-Dungy.

Brees handing off to prime LJ and chucking it to Bowe and Gonzalez would have been fun.

Too risky. Could have set us back

[ILChief]

Seems like the media, both local and national, are turning on Smith

[KC_Lee]

So a cold chill ran down my spine this morning as a thought occurred to me. Apparently Johnny Manziel is looking to rehab his life and image.

http://www.cbssports.com/nfl/news/look-johnny-manziel-vows-to-stop-being-a-douche-in-flurry-of-tweets/

We know that Andy gave Vick a chance...what if Andy is eyeing Manziel as a reclamation project just like Vick?

What if next season or two off seasons from now we sign Johnny Manziel?

[notorious]

So a cold chill ran down my spine this morning as a thought occurred to me. Apparently Johnny Manziel is looking to rehab his life and image.

http://www.cbssports.com/nfl/news/look-johnny-manziel-vows-to-stop-being-a-douche-in-flurry-of-tweets/

We know that Andy gave Vick a chance...what if Andy is eyeing Manziel as a reclamation project just like Vick?

What if next season or two off seasons from now we sign Johnny Manziel?

He is pretty much the exact opposite of Smith.


This place would turn into a Tzar Bomb.

[Molitoth]

I looked at the list and noticed Rodgers and Roethlisberger as being late first round picks, and I wondered if perhaps late-first picks could be a good value, that perhaps they're guys who were overlooked.

So I made a quick formula to assess overall value. My formula was

V = YP*(%AP+%PB+%ST)*A

where

V = Career Value
YP = Years Played
%AP = Percent of Playing Years Named as All-Pro
%PB = Percent of Playing Years Named as Pro Bowler
%ST = Percent of Playing Years Named as Team's Starter (whether it was their draft team or not)
A = Adjustment for Active Players to Estimate Their Future Playing Years and Estimate Their Full Career

For those interested, I calculated A by looking at the median number of years played by retired players on the list who played longer than the active player had currently played. A adjusted their score proportionally to the median number of years they could be expected to play.

When I did that, here are the overall career values that I calculated. Overall, they seem to be a good match for production:


Pick In Round Name Active-Adjusted Value
1 Peyton Manning 38.0
3 Matt Ryan 20.2
1 Cam Newton 20.0
24 Aaron Rodgers 19.8
11 Ben Roethlisberger 19.4
1 Eli Manning 17.2
4 Philip Rivers 17.2
1 Troy Aikman HOF 17.0
2 Donovan McNabb 17.0
1 Drew Bledsoe 16.0
1 Vinny Testaverde 16.0
1 Andrew Luck 15.4
1 Carson Palmer 15.1
1 Jameis Winston 13.5
5 Kerry Collins 13.0
3 Steve McNair 13.0
18 Joe Flacco 13.0
1 Matthew Stafford 12.0
11 Jay Cutler 11.8
1 Alex Smith 11.7
3 Jim Everett 11.0
26 Jim Harbaugh 11.0
1 Michael Vick 11.0
8 Ryan Tannehill 11.0
1 Jeff George 9.0
2 Marcus Mariota 9.0
3 Blake Bortles 9.0
1 Sam Bradford 8.6
11 Daunte Culpepper 8.0
13 Chris Miller 8.0
5 Mark Sanchez 7.5
2 Carson Wentz 7.0
6 Trent Dilfer 7.0
2 Robert Griffin 6.6
3 Vince Young 6.0
3 Joey Harrington 6.0
18 Chad Pennington 6.0
10 Blaine Gabbert 6.0
25 Jason Campbell 5.0
1 David Carr 5.0
2 Rick Mirer 5.0
1 Tim Couch 4.0
17 Josh Freeman 4.0
19 Kyle Boller 4.0
32 Teddy Bridgewater 3.0
12 Christian Ponder 3.0
7 Byron Leftwich 3.0
16 EJ Manuel 2.8
1 JaMarcus Russell 2.0
3 Heath Shuler 2.0
22 Brady Quinn 2.0
22 J.P. Losman 2.0
22 Rex Grossman 2.0
25 Tommy Maddox 2.0
25 Tim Tebow 1.0
22 Brandon Weeden 1.0
8 Jake Locker 1.0
3 Akili Smith 1.0
6 David Klingler 1.0
12 Chuck Long 1.0
10 Matt Leinart 1.0
32 Patrick Ramsey 1.0
1 Jared Goff 0.0
26 Paxton Lynch 0.0
22 Johnny Manziel 0.0
12 Cade McNown 0.0
2 Ryan Leaf 0.0
26 Jim Druckenmiller 0.0
16 Dan McGwire 0.0
24 Todd Marinovich 0.0
7 Andre Ware 0.0
6 Kelly Stouffer 0.0


35 of these players were top 5 picks. The median top five pick was Michael Vick - 7 years as a starter, 4 pro bowls. 51% of top-five picks had a value above 10, which equates to being an average 10 year starter with no pro bowls or a guy who made 5 pro bowls in 5 seasons and then retired.

16 of these players were taken between Pick 6 and Pick 15. The median QB taken between Picks 6 and 15 was Christian Ponder - 3 years as a starter and 0 pro bowls. 19% of picks in this range had a value above 10.

21 of these players were taken on Pick 16 or later. The median QB taken in this range was J.P. Losman - 2 years as a starter and 0 pro bowls. 16% of picks in this range had a value above 10.

The bottom line, then is that if you take a top-5 pick, there's about a 50 percent chance that he's going to be a long-term starter in the league with success. Outside the top five, there's about a 1 in 6 chance of that, and a greater than 50/50 likelihood that they will be total busts.

By the way, that doesn't mean you shouldn't try. We just have to modulate our expectations that we'll need to draft 6 late first rounders to get 1 10-year starter.

The Pro Bowl is a joke. I think you should have left it out of the formula.

[Nickhead]

The Pro Bowl is a joke. I think you should have left it out of the formula.

but that would dilute the talent pool :D