Rotoworld Mock

[Mr. Laz]

Draft is here folks, time to mock this place up!

Mock Draft V
Monday, April 17, 2017

This mock draft is my best guess of what will happen. I know there are many who want to trade down or robotically recite the term “best player available.” Need is always factored in and one year away needs should be considered.

For the trades featured below, the terms are listed after the initial team and are based on previous values from past drafts.

1. Cleveland Browns - EDGE Myles Garrett, Texas A&M - Viewed as the draft’s top prospect. He is the unique prospect in this draft. Reportedly dealt with a high ankle injury this season. NFL teams have to rush the passer, and drafting players like Emmanuel Ogbah and Carl Nassib doesn’t prevent you from adding Garrett. I know Adam Schefter mentioned the team is “split” on this pick, but you cannot pass on Garrett. Trading up from 12 seems far more likely… if the team loves a quarterback.

2. San Francisco 49ers - EDGE/DL Solomon Thomas, Stanford - Thomas is a really, really, really good football player. He can rush from the edge or possibly work inside. The new 49ers’ coaching staff and the front office has no connection to Arik Armstead nor DeForest Buckner. Harsh, but true. Without a clear No. 2 prospect in this class, add the pass rusher with upside.

3. Chicago Bears - EDGE/DL Jonathan Allen, Alabama - This is a difficult selection. It could obviously be a quarterback or cornerback, or even a left tackle, but Allen might be viewed as a safe selection who offers disruption from a variety of alignments. Long term shoulder questions have not been mentioned to me. The Bears need to continue to get younger up front.

4. Jacksonville Jaguars - RB Leonard Fournette, LSU - The Jaguars took care of so many needs in free agency. Perhaps they want to add a rangy free safety, or another offensive lineman, or a tight end, but signs and actions point to a powerful running back who can help build the identity of the offense. I’ve heard that teams understand a running scheme must be built around Fournette’s strengths, but many are open to it.

5. Buffalo Bills (TRADE with TEN) - QB Mitchell Trubisky, UNC - Let’s talk through this. A billionaire businessman does not spend his weekends or free time traveling to college campuses to meet with 20 and 21 year olds for fun. This is for business and goes beyond being thorough. The Bills are taking the blueprint the Eagles laid out last year when trading up for a quarterback.

Trade terms: Swapping 2017 first round picks plus the Bills give a 2018 second round pick and a 2017 third round pick (75) and the Titans add a fifth round pick (164). Buffalo only has six picks in the 2017 NFL Draft.

6. New York Jets - CB Gareon Conley, Ohio State - I know many expect Marshon Lattimore to be the first corner, but a number of NFL people are worried about his history of hamstring injuries. Enter Conley, who is an outstanding prospect. He shines on the left, right and in the slot. Physical, ball skills, etc. We can look back in three years and view Conley as the best corner in this class.

7. Los Angeles Chargers - FS Malik Hooker, Ohio State - Some might render football down to turnovers and big plays. Hooker can create big plays and turnovers thanks to his extreme range from his safety spot. A rangy free safety can totally change the success of Gus Bradley’s defense. This is one of the best prospect to team fits in the draft.

8. Carolina Panthers - RB Christian McCaffrey, Stanford - Panthers coach Ron Rivera used the term “evolve” multiple times after the Panthers season when speaking about offensive changes. We have no idea what that means since the team’s offense has changed very little this offseason. Adding McCaffrey would define that term. The more you watch McCaffrey, the more you realize he can be a primary piece of an NFL running and passing game.

9. Cincinnati Bengals - EDGE Derek Barnett, Tennessee - A receiver is definitely in play. Michael Johnson and Carlos Dunlap are getting older and more expensive, and the team has failed to find long-term solutions at either spot. Barnett posted a ton of production at the collegiate level and wins with bend and a strong motor.

10. Tennessee Titans (TRADE with BUF) - WR Mike Williams, Clemson - The primary mission of the Titans draft should be to surround Marcus Mariota with talent. Corey Davis’ draft process has been quiet after minor ankle surgery. John Ross has a long history of knee injuries. Enter Williams, who is outstanding when creating a positional advantage and wins downfield thanks to his contested catch ability.

11. New Orleans Saints - CB Marshon Lattimore, Ohio State - The Malcolm Butler deal will likely get done before the season. Even if it does, the trio of Butler, Breaux and Lattimore would be great,

12. Cleveland Browns (via PHI) - TE O.J. Howard, Alabama - The Browns staff coached Howard at the Senior Bowl and deployed more 12 personnel groupings in that week than I’ve seen before. I know many peg a quarterback to this slot. The team could obviously move up for one, or take the multiple passer approach and wait for more value. Potentially.

13. Arizona Cardinals - QB Deshaun Watson, Clemson - Call this selection a hunch. I know Bruce Arians’ infatuation with big armed quarterbacks is often cited. However, we do not know how long Arians will coach for and Steve Keim needs to plan for the future.

14. Philadelphia Eagles (via MIN) - EDGE Charles Harris, Missouri - The Eagles could absolutely take a similar approach to the Panthers last season in terms of multiple corners after round one. Harris will be a top 15 selection and greatly improved his athletic testing at the school’s pro day.

15. Indianapolis Colts - S Jamal Adams, LSU - Chris Ballard could see his next Eric Berry in Adams. Adams dominates edge runs, screen passes, and short completions.

16. Baltimore Ravens - LB Reuben Foster, Alabama - I know the team likely moves Kamalei Correa to inside linebacker, but with the top edge rushers off the board and a number of possible corner targets injury, the Ravens could look at receiver or an inside linebacker from a school Ozzie Newsome is very comfortable with.

17. Washington Redskins - C Forrest Lamp, Western Kentucky - Trying to predict a pick for a team without a general manager is fun. Ryan Kelly was the likely target last year, so the team (and previous GM’s grades) might indicate the top talent at the position being the pick. Lamp will be viewed as a center or guard in the NFL.

18. Tennessee Titans - CB Kevin King, Washington - Jon Robinson worked with Bill Belichick. Robinson signed former Patriot Logan Ryan to a large contract. The Patriots value 3-cone results (Ryan ran a 6.69). Kevin King’s 6.56 3-cone is an outstanding time. In fact, he is the most athletic corner in this draft. We could look back on this class in five years and view King as the class’ top corner.

19. Tampa Bay Bucs - TE David Njoku, Miami - I know the Bucs have Cameron Brate. He is absolutely a starting caliber talent. But inject some unreal upside and athleticism in Njoku, and the Bucs passing offense gets a lot scarier. Luke Stocker and Brandon Myers combined for more snaps than Brate played.

20. Denver Broncos - T Garett Bolles, Utah - I have pushed for Bolles to be drafted earlier than this… I just can’t find a fit. Bolles has left tackle feet and an aggressive, finishers mentality in the running game. He’d be a perfect fit for the Broncos.

21. Detroit Lions - LB Haason Reddick, Temple - Reddick could absolutely be drafted before this, even as the first off-ball linebacker off the board. Why? No one has improved their evaluation more during the process, and Reddick also offers pass rushing upside.

22. Kansas City Chiefs (TRADE with MIA) - QB Patrick Mahomes, Texas Tech - Alex Smith is 32 years old and the Chiefs would save $17 million of his $20 million salary if he is not on the roster in 2018. All the buzz points to Mahomes landing in the first round. Personally, I don’t view him in that territory as there is no easy comparison of success in the NFL. Perhaps he creates a new mold. Andy Reid and company added Kevin Kolb in round two, then Michael Vick two years later, when Donovan McNabb was around Smith’s current age.

Trade terms: The Chiefs deal a 3rd round pick, No. 91, to exchange first round picks.

23. New York Giants - OL Ryan Ramczyk, Wisconsin - This could be one of a number of offensive linemen… Ramczyk, Garett Bolles, Cam Robinson. Ereck Flowers was not and is not the answer at left tackle. Adding skill position players only goes so far when the offensive line is a weakness.

24. Oakland Raiders - LB Jarrad Davis, Florida - The biggest weakness on the Raiders is the linebacker spot, as the team cycled through player after player in an attempt to make something work. Davis is athletic and vicious at the point of attack. He might remind some of Deion Jones.

25. Houston Texans - T Cam Robinson, Alabama - The Texans have a massive need at right tackle with Derek Newton’s late-season injury. I think it is very telling that Mike Mayock, a man who has spent the last month on the pro day circuit with NFL staffers, now ranks Robinson as his top tackle.

26. Seattle Seahawks - EDGE/LB Tyus Bowser, Houston - Bowser’s lack of pass rush snaps might limit his true EDGE evaluation. He tested in the 95th percentile and would help in a variety of ways. He could line up as a SAM, rush the passer or work off the ball since K.J. Wright is not getting any cheaper.

27. Miami Dolphins (TRADE with KC) - EDGE Jordan Willis, Kansas State - The Dolphins pick up an extra third-round pick in this deal while still getting the pass rusher they want. Willis is a straight-line rusher who is an athletic freak.

28. Dallas Cowboys - S Obi Melifonwu, UConn - Another hunch. The Cowboys must replace multiple starters in the secondary, and pair Obi with fellow UConn athletic phenom Byron Jones would give Dallas plenty of flexibility in the second half.

29. Green Bay Packers - CB Tre’Davious White, LSU - If the Cowboys went with a corner, White would be a likely pick. However, in this scenario, White passes the thresholds Ted Thompson uses at the position. The Packers could also be a prime trade out target.

30. Pittsburgh Steelers - WR Corey Davis, Western Michigan - The Steelers will add a corner and a pass catcher early in the draft. Book it. Davis is the top receiver in this class. He can win in contested situations due to his natural size but shines creating separation and dominating after the catch.

31. Atlanta Falcons - EDGE T.J. Watt, Wisconsin - I flipped between Watt, Derek Rivers and Taylor Moton. Watt is an insane athlete with a growing game and would be able to play a variety of spots for the Falcons.

32. Cleveland Browns (Trade with NO) - QB Davis Webb, Cal - The Browns get their quarterback for very little extra. Webb has 26 starts to his name and even more games played. The buzz is real from the NFL, but this late of a selection would allow the Browns to continue to throw darts at the position if they so choose, in 2017 or beyond.

Trade terms: Much like the Vikings trade up for Teddy Bridgewater a few years ago, the Browns trade pick No. 33 and a fourth round pick (108) to the Saints.

[ChiefGator]

So.. Cook drops out of the 1st round entirely? Has he really dropped on boards that much?

[ChiefAshhole1056]

So.. Cook drops out of the 1st round entirely? Has he really dropped on boards that much?

That's been my opinion for awhile now as well. He has the most red flags for RBs in the draft (even more than Mixon imo) with his shoulder, fumbling issues, poor combine performance, and there has been concerns with his entourage he likes to surround himself with.

Put all that with the loaded RB class, and I wouldnt be shocked if teams just dont see him being worth a 1st rounder.

[ModSocks]

If there's any truth to the Mahomes/KC rumors, it has to be the worst kept secret in the NFL.

[Mr. Laz]

If there's any truth to the Mahomes/KC rumors, it has to be the worst kept secret in the NFL.
Everyone insists that the Chiefs really were interested in Paxton Lynch.

If so, that was a terrible secret as well.

Personally, I don't think that Dorsey is a guy that would let secrets out like this. I think the rumor about Lynch AND about Mahomes are both fake leaks by the Chiefs to try to get people to trade up with them or just ahead of them so that they can select someone else.

Does everyone think that Dorsey sucks so bad that he can't keep a secret?


Rumors mean the exact opposite during draft time imo

[Steron]

I'd stay at 27 and pick Joe Mixon. Off field issues aside, IMO, I think he's the #2 RB behind Fournette. Recently, KC hasn't had a problem taking guys with issues before. Houston in 2011. Hill last year. I feel like all the QB talk is a smokescreen. I mean, how long has Mahommes been linked to KC? Worst. Secret. Ever.

[CaliforniaChief]

I'd stay at 27 and pick Joe Mixon. Off field issues aside, IMO, I think he's the #2 RB behind Fournette. Recently, KC hasn't had a problem taking guys with issues before. Houston in 2011. Hill last year. I feel like all the QB talk is a smokescreen. I mean, how long has Mahommes been linked to KC? Worst. Secret. Ever.

I'd be pissed.

[loochy]

it's throbbing

[DJ's left nut]

I'd be pissed.

No shit - I'd be livid.

1,000 yard backs can be had in FA on $3.5 million deals with minimal guarantees and short terms. RBs are the new guards while Guards are the new RTs and RTs are getting damn near what LTs used to.

RBs are completely fungible assets that can be had for nothing on the FA market. Why in the !@#$ would you EVER use your 1st round pick on one unless it's a truly generational player? Shit, I don't even think Fournette qualifies.

There's no upshot and the financial opportunity cost is massive. Just say no to first round RBs.

[Steron]

No shit - I'd be livid.

1,000 yard backs can be had in FA on $3.5 million deals with minimal guarantees and short terms. RBs are the new guards while Guards are the new RTs and RTs are getting damn near what LTs used to.

RBs are completely fungible assets that can be had for nothing on the FA market. Why in the !@#$ would you EVER use your 1st round pick on one unless it's a truly generational player? Shit, I don't even think Fournette qualifies.

There's no upshot and the financial opportunity cost is massive. Just say no to first round RBs.


Exactly the same can be said about 1rst round QBs. Why waste a first round pick on one unless it's a generational player? I don't feel like any of the QBs are worth a round 1 pick. Especially the ones that will be left at 1.27. If it's Kizer, Mahommes, Kaya, Mixon, Cook, or Cunningham? A case can be made for Cunningham just because it's a need. BPA? Mixon.

[DJ's left nut]

Exactly the same can be said about 1rst round QBs. Why waste a first round pick on one unless it's a generational player? I don't feel like any of the QBs are worth a round 1 pick. Especially the ones that will be left at 1.27. If it's Kizer, Mahommes, Kaya, Mixon, Cook, or Cunningham? A case can be made for Cunningham just because it's a need. BPA? Mixon.

The hell it can.

A rank and file QB costs $17 million. If you get an average QB with a 1st round pick, you're potentially $50+ million ahead on the cap. That same RB costs dick.

[TambaBerry]

I'd rather have Mixon then Mccaffrey

[SAUTO]

No shit - I'd be livid.

1,000 yard backs can be had in FA on $3.5 million deals with minimal guarantees and short terms. RBs are the new guards while Guards are the new RTs and RTs are getting damn near what LTs used to.

RBs are completely fungible assets that can be had for nothing on the FA market. Why in the !@#$ would you EVER use your 1st round pick on one unless it's a truly generational player? Shit, I don't even think Fournette qualifies.

There's no upshot and the financial opportunity cost is massive. Just say no to first round RBs.
I think fournette is gonna bust

[Reerun_KC]

No shit - I'd be livid.

1,000 yard backs can be had in FA on $3.5 million deals with minimal guarantees and short terms. RBs are the new guards while Guards are the new RTs and RTs are getting damn near what LTs used to.

RBs are completely fungible assets that can be had for nothing on the FA market. Why in the !@#$ would you EVER use your 1st round pick on one unless it's a truly generational player? Shit, I don't even think Fournette qualifies.

There's no upshot and the financial opportunity cost is massive. Just say no to first round RBs.

Great post.

[RealSNR]

I'd stay at 27 and pick Joe Mixon. Off field issues aside, IMO, I think he's the #2 RB behind Fournette. Recently, KC hasn't had a problem taking guys with issues before. Houston in 2011. Hill last year. I feel like all the QB talk is a smokescreen. I mean, how long has Mahommes been linked to KC? Worst. Secret. Ever.

For fuck's sake.

Houston liked to hang with teammates and smoke weed.

Peters is an extremely passionate guy with a hot head who made a TRUE young guy "mistake" when he forced his Washington coaches to discipline him.

Those two "issues" should NOT be compared to the "issues" that surround Hill and Mixon.

[DJ's left nut]

I think fournette is gonna bust

I can't make up my mind.

There are times when I see a unique player; an Adrian Peterson type. Then there are times that I see a more reckless version of Trent Richardson.

Honestly, I'd probably just stay away. I may regret it, but I can't get a good enough feel for him to be comfortable and I think when that's the case, you treat it like a marriage.

If you have to question it - you don't do it.

[The Franchise]

Trade up for only a 3rd? Every fucking day of the week.

[Direckshun]

No shit - I'd be livid.

1,000 yard backs can be had in FA on $3.5 million deals with minimal guarantees and short terms. RBs are the new guards while Guards are the new RTs and RTs are getting damn near what LTs used to.

RBs are completely fungible assets that can be had for nothing on the FA market. Why in the !@#$ would you EVER use your 1st round pick on one unless it's a truly generational player? Shit, I don't even think Fournette qualifies.

There's no upshot and the financial opportunity cost is massive. Just say no to first round RBs.

The NFL, with very few exceptions, comprehensively disagrees with you.

A great running game can be just as effective in opening up your passing game as a great passing game can open up your run game.

Ware is the best RB we have, and surely you can admit he was a shell of himself by the end of the year.

I'm not thrilled about going RB in the first, but I do think we need to make a key investment there sooner rather than later.

[SAUTO]

I can't make up my mind.

There are times when I see a unique player; an Adrian Peterson type. Then there are times that I see a more reckless version of Trent Richardson.

Honestly, I'd probably just stay away. I may regret it, but I can't get a good enough feel for him to be comfortable and I think when that's the case, you treat it like a marriage.

If you have to question it - you don't do it.
He's often injured also.

I would pass

[SAUTO]

Trade up for only a 3rd? Every fucking day of the week.

Fuck yes

[kcchiefsus]

I think Dorsey is going to develop a new offensive system where the quarterback position is removed and the center just direct snaps to either a runningback or a receiver in the backfield. It will be revolutionary. Quarterback? We don't need no stinking quarterback.

[DJ's left nut]

The NFL, with very few exceptions, comprehensively disagrees with you.

A great running game can be just as effective in opening up your passing game as a great passing game can open up your run game.

Ware is the best RB we have, and surely you can admit he was a shell of himself by the end of the year.

I'm not thrilled about going RB in the first, but I do think we need to make a key investment there sooner rather than later.

No it doesn't.

There are very few teams giving out big money to RBs anymore; they know they're easy to find and cheap to replace.

The market tells me that the NFL agrees with me and it's the market that's making the decision for me.

[raybec 4]

Exactly the same can be said about 1rst round QBs. Why waste a first round pick on one unless it's a generational player? I don't feel like any of the QBs are worth a round 1 pick. Especially the ones that will be left at 1.27. If it's Kizer, Mahommes, Kaya, Mixon, Cook, or Cunningham? A case can be made for Cunningham just because it's a need. BPA? Mixon.

This makes no sense whatsoever. Don't draft a guy who could be a quality starting QB in the first round because he's not a generational player? That is ridiculous.

[raybec 4]

The NFL, with very few exceptions, comprehensively disagrees with you.

A great running game can be just as effective in opening up your passing game as a great passing game can open up your run game.

Ware is the best RB we have, and surely you can admit he was a shell of himself by the end of the year.

I'm not thrilled about going RB in the first, but I do think we need to make a key investment there sooner rather than later.

This would be true 8-10 years ago. But now there's maybe one guy in every draft that's worth a 1st as a RB. This year if it isn't Fournette I wouldn't spend a first. McCaffrey looks like he could be a nice player but he is Reggie Bush in a white guy suit.

[ChiliConCarnage]

Didn't the Jags just give Chris Ivory a fairly expensive contract last year? It seems weird for them to take Fournette. Both bruiser type runners. They've got Yeldon too but he'd likely be cheap to drop

[DJ's left nut]

Didn't the Jags just give Chris Ivory a fairly expensive contract last year? It seems weird for them to take Fournette. Both bruiser type runners. They've got Yeldon too but he'd likely be cheap to drop

Sorta; just depends on how you define expensive these days.

Ivory's signing bonus was only $5 million and his first year salary was $1 million w/ guaranteed salary in '16 and '17. So his deal was effectively 2/$10.5 million.

So....Donald Stephenson money. I'd say that kinda makes my point. They gave a guy who ran for 1,000 yards at 4.3/pop and a pro bowl selection mediocre RT money on a contract that gave essentially no long-term security.

Meanwhile defensive tackles coming off down seasons signing 'make good' deals to rehab their value before taking another run at FA are getting $8 million/season.

The market is speaking loudly and it isn't placing a premium on ballcarriers.

[T-post Tom]

http://dehayf5mhw1h7.cloudfront.net/wp-content/uploads/sites/253/2015/09/15062304/Todd-Blackledge.jpeg

[DJ's left nut]

Kill yourself.

[Sandy Vagina]

I think fournette is gonna bust

So KC drafts him, and he is running behind our OL??? :eek:

[Sandy Vagina]

He's often injured also.

I would pass

Kidding aside, injuries would be the only thing to derail Fournette into being a bust.

That said, the guy taking over for him at LSU is even better... and I would love to see him in KC. (Derrius Guice)

[raybec 4]

Kidding aside, injuries would be the only thing to derail Fournette into being a bust.

That said, the guy taking over for him at LSU is even better... and I would love to see him in KC. (Derrius Guice)

Fournette showed at the combine he needs to be disciplined about his weight too. He showed up at 240+. He could eat himself out of the league.

[O.city]

I'm just not a fan of fournette.

[Sandy Vagina]

Fournette showed at the combine he needs to be disciplined about his weight too. He showed up at 240+. He could eat himself out of the league.

Can't outright dismiss this, but he has a strong work ethic and desire to be great.

so, I wouldn't think this to be a likely problem.

[Mr. Laz]

Trade up for only a 3rd? Every fucking day of the week.
Trade up cost sounded cheap to me.


I imagine Dorsey ends up paying twice that

[Mr. Laz]

I'm just not a fan of fournette.
Larry Johnson

[DJ's left nut]

Larry Johnson

Decent comparison, really.

Might get up to speed a bit faster than Larry and I actually think Larry occasionally showed some surprising wiggle, but it's marginal (if it exists at all) either way.

I could see that.

And wouldn't give up a 1st rounder to see it again.

[-King-]

I'm just not a fan of fournette.

Me neither. I don't like power backs and wouldn't spend a 1st on one.
Posted via Mobile Device

[Mr. Laz]

Decent comparison, really.

Might get up to speed a bit faster than Larry and I actually think Larry occasionally showed some surprising wiggle, but it's marginal (if it exists at all) either way.

I could see that.

And wouldn't give up a 1st rounder to see it again.
He reminds me of Larry Johnson when he runs. Decent chance that he will have the same weakness as larry johnson. If you make him change directions before he gets running downhill, he's shit.

Maybe Fournette is a little quicker and has more determination than Johnson. That could make a difference.

Fournette is going to need an Oline that gets a good initial push for him to be really successful. JMO.

[ChiefAshhole1056]

Sorta; just depends on how you define expensive these days.

Ivory's signing bonus was only $5 million and his first year salary was $1 million w/ guaranteed salary in '16 and '17. So his deal was effectively 2/$10.5 million.

So....Donald Stephenson money. I'd say that kinda makes my point. They gave a guy who ran for 1,000 yards at 4.3/pop and a pro bowl selection mediocre RT money on a contract that gave essentially no long-term security.

Meanwhile defensive tackles coming off down seasons signing 'make good' deals to rehab their value before taking another run at FA are getting $8 million/season.

The market is speaking loudly and it isn't placing a premium on ballcarriers.

How much would you be ok with paying the Elliot/D Johnson/Bell tier RBs?

[DJ's left nut]

How much would you be ok with paying the Elliot/D Johnson/Bell tier RBs?

Depends on the term.

Someone like Bell you'd never get me to give a deal that I can't get out of in 2 years. I'd probably go to the $9-$10 million range or so for a couple of seasons for a top of the heap free agent RB. Bell's been ridden pretty hard when he's not injured; a fair number of red flags there that will make the team that gives him his massive contract regret it, IMO.

Second contracts for RBs are just bad investments; very very few of them pay off. So if you're talking about Bell/Johnson in FA, 2/$20 million is probably as high as I'd be willing to go, if that. And that's just for guys that are going to be dynamic in the passing game as well.

Now if we're in some hypothetical world where 24 yr old David Johnson with 500 touches on the odometer is available as a FA? Probably $11-$12 or so for 4-5 years.

[rico]

Can't outright dismiss this, but he has a strong work ethic and desire to be great.

so, I wouldn't think this to be a likely problem.

Wow, Sandy...I sometimes catch myself daydreaming due to being in awe of your vast, in-depth, introspective football knowledge and your cunning ability to psychologically assess players in accurate fashion. You know so much about football, from so many levels...

And your knowledge about Derrius Gruice being better than Fournette?!? Fascinating. You must be a big time Alex Smith/LSU fan!!!

How do you know about Fournette's work ethic and desire to be great? Is it greater than the other RB's in the draft this year? Are you friends with him? Do you know him? Do you snuggle with him late at night and watch Alex Smith highlight videos with him? Does Guice have the same work ethic and desire when you spend time with him or have you not gotten that far with him? Is Fournette secretly jealous of Guice? Do you think that will affect his desire to be the best and his ability to play good football?

Thanks in advance...you are brilliant and introspective and I know I can take your word for anything because of it!!!

[TimBone]

Exactly the same can be said about 1rst round QBs. Why waste a first round pick on one unless it's a generational player? I don't feel like any of the QBs are worth a round 1 pick. Especially the ones that will be left at 1.27. If it's Kizer, Mahommes, Kaya, Mixon, Cook, or Cunningham? A case can be made for Cunningham just because it's a need. BPA? Mixon.

You take a chance on the QB, because if he pans out, your franchise is absolutely set for a decade+.

[Halfcan]

Wow, Sandy...I sometimes catch myself daydreaming due to being in awe of your vast, in-depth, introspective football knowledge and your cunning ability to psychologically assess players in accurate fashion. You know so much about football, from so many levels...

And your knowledge about Derrius Gruice being better than Fournette?!? Fascinating. You must be a big time Alex Smith/LSU fan!!!

How do you know about Fournette's work ethic and desire to be great? Is it greater than the other RB's in the draft this year? Are you friends with him? Do you know him? Do you snuggle with him late at night and watch Alex Smith highlight videos with him? Does Guice have the same work ethic and desire when you spend time with him or have you not gotten that far with him? Is Fournette secretly jealous of Guice? Do you think that will affect his desire to be the best and his ability to play good football?

Thanks in advance...you are brilliant and introspective and I know I can take your word for anything because of it!!!

ROFL

[New World Order]

Last year for Ass!

Thank god

[TLO]

ChiefsPlanet is going to crash so hard when we take Mixon. The meltdown will be all-time

[TLO]

And for the record I hope we draft Mahomes.

[Mr. Laz]

ChiefsPlanet is going to crash so hard when we take Mixon. The meltdown will be all-time
We aren't taking Mixon in rd 1.
If we take Mixon in rd 2, it will be a mixed bag of feelings.
If we take Mixon in rd 3, people will mostly be happy as hell.
I seriously doubt Mixon will last beyond rd 3.

I don't see how Mixon will crash CPlanet.

[New World Order]

We aren't taking Mixon in rd 1.
If we take Mixon in rd 2, it will be a mixed bag of feelings.
If we take Mixon in rd 3, people will mostly be happy as hell.
I seriously doubt Mixon will last beyond rd 3.

I don't see how Mixon will crash CPlanet.


If they don't take a qb in round 1, I think it's pretty likely Ass is here after 17.

If they do, Alex is gone after this season.

Meltdownville is very possible

[Mr. Laz]

If they don't take a qb in round 1, I think it's pretty likely Ass is here after 17.

If they do, Alex is gone after this season.

Meltdownville is very possible
What does that have to do with Mixon?

[Steron]

The hell it can.

A rank and file QB costs $17 million. If you get an average QB with a 1st round pick, you're potentially $50+ million ahead on the cap. That same RB costs dick.

At pick 1.27, if we stay there, the player is going to cost about 9 million with 5 million bonus? 4 years with a 5th year option. Alex Smith is a rank and file QB. Personally I don't see any of the current crop being anything more and I don't see QB as a position of need. Mixon OTOH, I feel like will be a top 3 RB. Dynamic and a game changer.

I completely follow what you're saying regarding the monetary side. That 1.27 QB, if they pan out, over the the first 4 years is a tremendous savings.

[ChiefAshhole1056]

Saw a tweet stating how Arizona is a perfect place for a rookie QB because Palmer usually sits out Wednesday practices anyways and the rookie could get first team reps those days to get him some experience. I dont think Watson is a fit for Arians offense because of his preference for bigger arms. TRADE UP TO 12 DORSEY!!

[Titty Meat]

Saw a tweet stating how Arizona is a perfect place for a rookie QB because Palmer usually sits out Wednesday practices anyways and the rookie could get first team reps those days to get him some experience. I dont think Watson is a fit for Arians offense because of his preference for bigger arms. TRADE UP TO 12 DORSEY!!

They'll draft Corey Davis round 1 and Davis Webb round 2.

[DJ's left nut]

At pick 1.27, if we stay there, the player is going to cost about 9 million with 5 million bonus? 4 years with a 5th year option. Alex Smith is a rank and file QB. Personally I don't see any of the current crop being anything more and I don't see QB as a position of need. Mixon OTOH, I feel like will be a top 3 RB. Dynamic and a game changer.

I completely follow what you're saying regarding the monetary side. That 1.27 QB, if they pan out, over the the first 4 years is a tremendous savings.

Probably around $10 million total value w/ a $6 million signing bonus. 5th year option would probably be in the $14 million range by then.

So 5 years, $24 million, give or take a bit. That's 5 years of quarterback for 1.5 years worth of salary. And when you figure backups are making $4 million or so in the open market these days, you even get some solid value in his year or two on the bench.

So let's say he rides pine for 2 years (which would be a pretty shitty scenario, but let's project it anyway). If he gives you 2 years as a backup and 3 years as even an average starter (which will probably cost about $19 million on the market over those 3 seasons). You're talking about roughly $64 million for 2 years of backup play and 3 years for a starter.

That's $40 million over 5; a pretty huge advantage. And if we get 4 years of adequate play as a starter instead of 3, it jumps up to $55 million. Anything better than adequate could start pushing that to $60-$70 million.

You might be able to approach that kind of cap advantage with a pass rusher or maybe a CB provided that said pass rusher or CB starts all 5 years and plays at a high level.

Mixon won't be a game changer for this team, IMO. He's not going to be better than peak Jamaal Charles and the one season we had a healthy Charles on this team we went 9-7. Reid isn't going to lean on his RBs and even if he did, Mixon would have to somehow generate anywhere from $8-10 million/season annually in marginal surplus value over the Ware/West combination.

If he's David Johnson he might get you there but that requires you to just assume he's the best all-around RB in football and won't have any more issues with the law, which is hardly a fair assumption. Moreover, the 'marginal' surplus is the key here. He has to be not only $8-$10 million better than the market over that period of time, but $8-10 million better than Ware or any other RB you may take in the 3rd/4th round of this round or subsequent drafts. I just don't see it.

[O.city]

So say they could draft mahomes or Watson in the first round without trading up. What could you save by cutting smith this year?

5 years of a rookie qb starting is so so cheap.

[milkman]

So say they could draft mahomes or Watson in the first round without trading up. What could you save by cutting smith this year?

5 years of a rookie qb starting is so so cheap.

Now much do you lose if you don't have the patience to develop that rookie QB, and you ruin him by starting him too early in his career?

[DJ's left nut]

So say they could draft mahomes or Watson in the first round without trading up. What could you save by cutting smith this year?

5 years of a rookie qb starting is so so cheap.

Another $16 million.

But you don't cut Smith this year. Mahomes isn't ready to start and Watson sucks so there's no way you cut Smith when he's already part of your salary structure.

[O.city]

Now much do you lose if you don't have the patience to develop that rookie QB, and you ruin him by starting him too early in his career?

If you ask him to do too much on a shit team, you could lose him.

But guys learn by playing. Even sitting a guy a year, you lose a year of financial value and experience. Now year 2 is the rookie year, year 3 and so in and so forth. If he hits it as a franchise qb and you have to shell big $ out for him, you're behind the 8 ball.

None of these dudes are probably ready, but the chiefs have a really strong roster and wouldn't necessarily need the guy to be a star early.

[O.city]

Another $16 million.

But you don't cut Smith this year. Mahomes isn't ready to start and Watson sucks so there's no way you cut Smith when he's already part of your salary structure.

At this point, probably too late.

But if they do land a qb they want early and a team called about offering say, a 3rd to take smith off our hands, I'd listen pretty hard.

[DJ's left nut]

At this point, probably too late.

But if they do land a qb they want early and a team called about offering say, a 3rd to take smith off our hands, I'd listen pretty hard.

I don't think you can. This is a playoff team and even if that's all it is, that's still another season of live-fire for guys like Peters, Kelce, Hill, Jones and Ford. These are the young guys that need to experience playoff football.

"Gotta knock on the door before you kick it in..."

If you just give away a season (and yes, that's what you'll be doing with Mahomes under center; the schedule is likely to be damn tough at the front based on what teams are projecting), you've lost the opportunity to get those snaps for your young core. Hell, even as a backup, Mahomes could get something from the intensity of playoff preparation.

Nah, there's too much long-term value to be gained by a successful season and even a single playoff game to just wad it up and toss it for a season's worth of cap relief and a 3rd round pick.

[O.city]

I don't think you can. This is a playoff team and even if that's all it is, that's still another season of live-fire for guys like Peters, Kelce, Hill, Jones and Ford. These are the young guys that need to experience playoff football.

"Gotta knock on the door before you kick it in..."

If you just give away a season (and yes, that's what you'll be doing with Mahomes under center; the schedule is likely to be damn tough at the front based on what teams are projecting), you've lost the opportunity to get those snaps for your young core. Hell, even as a backup, Mahomes could get something from the intensity of playoff preparation.

Nah, there's too much long-term value to be gained by a successful season and even a single playoff game to just wad it up and toss it for a season's worth of cap relief and a 3rd round pick.

I don't know enough about Mahomes or whatever qb they take to say yet, tbh. Yeah, he may throw an extra INT or two, but I'd think he could be more productive than Smith at this point.

Hell, I never would have thought Dak could do what he did and here we are.

The Chiefs are currently really talented on both sides. Add a dynamic rb and some defensive pieces and I'm not sure you couldn't nurse your rookie qb along early and have him going by December.

Yeah, those young guys need to learn, but letting them all learn together with the qb they're gonna be with for the next 6 years would be beneficial, eh?

Plus that cap space is rollable, as you know. That could be big next year when looking for another pass rusher or what not.

[raybec 4]

At pick 1.27, if we stay there, the player is going to cost about 9 million with 5 million bonus? 4 years with a 5th year option. Alex Smith is a rank and file QB. Personally I don't see any of the current crop being anything more and I don't see QB as a position of need. Mixon OTOH, I feel like will be a top 3 RB. Dynamic and a game changer.

I completely follow what you're saying regarding the monetary side. That 1.27 QB, if they pan out, over the the first 4 years is a tremendous savings.

Currently we don't even have a viable QB2, that's a definite need. Not to mention Alex is nearing the end of his contract and you need a backup plan, if not for this year then next year at the latest.

[Sandy Vagina]

Currently we don't even have a viable QB2, that's a definite need. Not to mention Alex is nearing the end of his contract and you need a backup plan, if not for this year then next year at the latest.

Yep. No way you can look at the age, years remaining, and number of viable QBs on the roster.. and think QB is not a significant need.

Shit year for them, but maybe KC will indeed find a gem amongst one of them, and make it happen.

[Mr. Laz]

So say they could draft mahomes or Watson in the first round without trading up. What could you save by cutting smith this year?

5 years of a rookie qb starting is so so cheap.
They aren't cutting Alex Smith this year.

:shake:


People going from desperate to just draft a QB to now wanting a young QB to be so good that Reid has no choice but to cut Smith and play the the rookie year 1. LMAO

Of course, then they will want the rookie QB to be Super Bowl level by game 2.

the demands never cease increasing the unrealistic expectations

[O.city]

They aren't cutting Alex Smith this year.

:shake:


People going from desperate to just draft a QB to now wanting a young QB to be so good that Reid has no choice but to cut Smith and play the the rookie year 1. LMAO

Of course, then they will want the rookie QB to be Super Bowl level by game 2.

the demands never cease increasing the unrealistic expectations
If a rookie can provide 80 percent of what smith does, at a third of the cost, why not?

The rookie qb doesn't have to be at a SB level by game 2, you'd have enough team around him that he could lean on it while he gets his feet wet.

[DJ's left nut]

If a rookie can provide 80 percent of what smith does, at a third of the cost, why not?

The rookie qb doesn't have to be at a SB level by game 2, you'd have enough team around him that he could lean on it while he gets his feet wet.

With the margin between wins and losses being what it is, 80% of what Alex Smith did last year puts us at somewhere in the neighborhood of 7-9.

He didn't do much, but 80% of that is quite a damn bit less.

You're tanking this season if you dump Alex Smith. The big problem with all of these QB prospects is readiness, not talent. The talent is there but none of them can run a team at a playoff level right now, not even this year's truefan favorite, Nate Peterman.

Well, Cooper Rush could, but he's not making it past the Bears.

[O.city]

With the margin between wins and losses being what it is, 80% of what Alex Smith did last year puts us at somewhere in the neighborhood of 7-9.

He didn't do much, but 80% of that is quite a damn bit less.

You're tanking this season if you dump Alex Smith. The big problem with all of these QB prospects is readiness, not talent. The talent is there but none of them can run a team at a playoff level right now, not even this year's truefan favorite, Nate Peterman.

Well, Cooper Rush could, but he's not making it past the Bears.

The way the chiefs currently play, the margin is super thin.
I also don't expect said rookie qb to produce at that level, especially if the front office were to move away from Smith.

They won't do it, I even necessarily think they should. But if there's a situation that they think the rookie can put up numbers similar to Smith's last season, they should take the picks and salary and move on.

By having the rookie qb sit a year, that's a year of value gone. Ideally, you recoup that over his tenure by him being a franchise qb, so it's worth it. But if I could have both, I'd do it.

[O.city]

Also, I mean, what's playoff level? Not throwing picks and punting alot?

[DJ's left nut]

The way the chiefs currently play, the margin is super thin.
I also don't expect said rookie qb to produce at that level, especially if the front office were to move away from Smith.

They won't do it, I even necessarily think they should. But if there's a situation that they think the rookie can put up numbers similar to Smith's last season, they should take the picks and salary and move on.

By having the rookie qb sit a year, that's a year of value gone. Ideally, you recoup that over his tenure by him being a franchise qb, so it's worth it. But if I could have both, I'd do it.

There's no way to know it until the bullets start flying. They can never have any idea if he's able to get anywhere near what a competent veteran QB can do until, what, game 3? It damn sure can't be known in camp and it's rare that you spot it in pre-season.

By then, nobody's going to trade for a QB that hasn't been in their system all off-season; he's worthless to them.

Nothing about trading/cutting Alex Smith this season makes sense - sorry.

[Bewbies]

The good thing with the drop-off from Smith is maybe you get 10-15 more INT's, but you're also going to get 10 more TD's too.

A QB throwing only 15 TD's in today's NFL is hilarious.

[Nickhead]

I'd stay at 27 and pick Joe Mixon. Off field issues aside, IMO, I think he's the #2 RB behind Fournette. Recently, KC hasn't had a problem taking guys with issues before. Houston in 2011. Hill last year. I feel like all the QB talk is a smokescreen. I mean, how long has Mahommes been linked to KC? Worst. Secret. Ever.

then you would have the one two punch combo of tyreek.... oh never mind :D

[RunKC]

80% of Alex's production is 12 TD's.

Idk guys...seems like a hard job to fill for a rookie

[rico]

80% of Alex's production is 12 TD's.

Idk guys...seems like a hard job to fill for a rookie

ROFL

[raybec 4]

With the margin between wins and losses being what it is, 80% of what Alex Smith did last year puts us at somewhere in the neighborhood of 7-9.

He didn't do much, but 80% of that is quite a damn bit less.

You're tanking this season if you dump Alex Smith. The big problem with all of these QB prospects is readiness, not talent. The talent is there but none of them can run a team at a playoff level right now, not even this year's truefan favorite, Nate Peterman.

Well, Cooper Rush could, but he's not making it past the Bears.

That's who SAGA is holding out hope for, Cooper Rush in the 6th or bust!!