NYT 2018 playoff simulator is up and running

[DaFace]

I know people like running scenarios with this thing (or at least I do). It's not particularly exciting with regard to scenarios where the Chiefs just make the playoffs (spoiler alert: I like our chances), but you can look at our chances for HFA, getting a bye, etc.

https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2018/upshot/kansas-city-chiefs-nfl-playoff-picture.html?_r=0

[DaFace]

It seems like they lag a bit when updating games each week, so here's the current look at our chances of HFA.

https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2018/upshot/kansas-city-chiefs-nfl-playoff-picture.html?_r=0#chi-det-10=win&cin-no-10=loss&cle-atl-10=win&ind-jax-10=win&kc-ari-10=win&nyj-buf-10=loss&tb-was-10=loss&ten-ne-10=win&oak-lac-10=loss&gb-mia-10=win&lar-sea-10=win&phi-dal-10=loss&pit-car-10=win&event=seed1

Currently, they're showing us as a 66% chance to get HFA and an 81% chance to get a bye. The biggest games remaining on the schedule is, by far, the game against the Chargers. If we win that one, our chances jump to 79%. If we lose, they drop to 45%. Aside from that, it's pretty obvious stuff. Patriots lose = good. Chargers lose = good.

[htismaqe]

67% chance of HFA throughout? I'll take it!

[O.city]

I'd feel a lot better if the CHargers would drop a game or two. They still have Pitt.

[TambaBerry]

it wont let me look at the page asking for money

[DaFace]

Another pretty amusing scenario: if we were to lose every game from here until the end of the season, we still have a 68% chance of making the playoffs. Reid should just tank the season and rest our starters for 6 weeks so that we can blast through everyone in the playoffs completely fresh. :)

[ChiefBlueCFC]

As long as the Chiefs take care of their own business, it doesn't matter what these other losers do. But Saints still play Pitt, Pitt plays SD and NE as well. So Pitt beats SD and NE and loses to Saints would be nice. But, as I said, take care of business it doesn't matter what these other teams do.

[RunKC]

If the Chiefs win in Mexico City, we pretty much clinch HFA IMO.

[Chief Northman]

Good news is Chiefs control their own destiny.

If they handle their remaining AFC opponents, they should end up the #1 seed.
I can’t see Pittsburgh, New England or the Chargers running the table.
Getting LDT, Morse and Berry back in time for playoffs could be a windfall.

[htismaqe]

I'd feel a lot better if the CHargers would drop a game or two. They still have Pitt.

The Chargers aren't winning at Arrowhead.

[King_Chief_Fan]

Good news is Chiefs control their own destiny.

If they handle their remaining AFC opponents, they should end up the #1 seed.
I can’t see Pittsburgh, New England or the Chargers running the table.
Getting LDT, Morse and Berry back in time for playoffs could be a windfall.

yup, however, the Chargers concern me some.
They are playing well.

[htismaqe]

yup, however, the Chargers concern me some.
They are playing well.

Andy Reid owns them. The Chiefs own them. Arrowhead owns them. They have to come to KC on a short week. The Chargers won't win at Arrowhead.

[King_Chief_Fan]

Andy Reid owns them. The Chiefs own them. Arrowhead owns them. They have to come to KC on a short week. The Chargers won't win at Arrowhead.

:thumb:

[MahiMike]

If they beat the Rams, it's 83% chance for #1 seed, even w/2 losses. W/1 loss it goes to 99%.

[O.city]

The Chargers aren't winning at Arrowhead.

I don't think so, but I also don't want to have to play that as an essential single game for HFA.

[RINGLEADER]

yup, however, the Chargers concern me some.
They are playing well.

Chargers are scoring less than 23 ppg the last three weeks against some inferior opponents (20 points against the Raiders?).

They very easily could have lost to both the Titans and Seahawks.

If they play like they've been playing the last few weeks we're going to stomp them. Again.

[RINGLEADER]

I don't think so, but I also don't want to have to play that as an essential single game for HFA.

Of course it is going to be an essential game for HFA. All the remaining games will impact that to some extent.

Don't worry though -- we're going crush the Chargers. Again.

[O.city]

If the Chiefs can beat the Rams, then the Chargers lose to Pitt, we could have it pretty much locked up pretty quickly.

[KChiefs1]

I'd feel a lot better if the CHargers would drop a game or two. They still have Pitt.


Chargers have to come to Arrowhead on a prime time Thursday night game in December. Not a good scenario for them.

[DaFace]

Chiefs chances are currently:

67% for HFA
85% for a bye
94% to win the division
99%+ to make the playoffs

If they win tonight, chances for HFA increase to 80%. But don't panic if they lose - they'd still have a 56% chance for HFA if they lose.

[Imon Yourside]

Chiefs chances are currently:

67% for HFA
85% for a bye
94% to win the division
99%+ to make the playoffs

If they win tonight, chances for HFA increase to 80%. But don't panic if they lose - they'd still have a 56% chance for HFA if they lose.

80>56 By a long shot, so ya i'll take 80%

[DaFace]

For the record:

54% HFA
81% 1st round bye
90% win the division
99%+ make the playoffs

[KChiefs1]

Win out & it's all moot.


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

[Rain Man]

For the record:

54% HFA
81% 1st round bye
90% win the division
99%+ make the playoffs

Rats. It's a coin flip now. I hope our coin flip luck holds.

[TwistedChief]

Rats. It's a coin flip now. I hope our coin flip luck holds.

I’m from NY and deeply blue politically, but I think the Monte Carlo simulations that the NYTimes is running here are biased against red states and the Chiefs. Fake news here for once.

We’ve got this

[KChiefs1]

Chiefs get the #1 seed & it’s not even close.

Chargers lose to the Steelers.
Patriots lose to the Steelers.
Steelers lose to the Saints.
Texans lose to the Colts.

[Renegade]

Chiefs get the #1 seed & it’s not even close.

Chargers lose to the Steelers.
Patriots lose to the Steelers.
Steelers lose to the Saints.
Texans lose to the Colts.

Forgot Chargers lose to Chiefs :clap:

[Simply Red]

Andy Reid owns them. The Chiefs own them. Arrowhead owns them. They have to come to KC on a short week. The Chargers won't win at Arrowhead.

yip

[HemiEd]

Fake news here for once.


ROFL

[CaliforniaChief]

Beat the Raiders twice and win the other 2 home games, and we're guaranteed a first round bye apart from getting any help elsewhere.

And if the Vikings beat the Patriots Sunday, which is entirely possible, that would pretty much wrap it up.

[Coogs]

Anybody done this with both us and the Chargers at 13-3? Chargers win out and we only lose to the Chargers. Who wins the West? I am assuming us since we would be 5-1 in the West and the Chargers would be 4-2.

[TwistedChief]

Anybody done this with both us and the Chargers at 13-3? Chargers win out and we only lose to the Chargers. Who wins the West? I am assuming us since we would be 5-1 in the West and the Chargers would be 4-2.

Exactly right. We split the head to head matchup with them, but they lose the division tiebreaker because of their loss to Denver.

[Rain Man]

Anybody done this with both us and the Chargers at 13-3? Chargers win out and we only lose to the Chargers. Who wins the West? I am assuming us since we would be 5-1 in the West and the Chargers would be 4-2.

Exactly right. We split the head to head matchup with them, but they lose the division tiebreaker because of their loss to Denver.

Well, this relieves a huge worry for me. I don't want us to be in a situation where one slip causes a disaster.

[KChiefs1]

Forgot Chargers lose to Chiefs :clap:


That's a given.


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

[007]

Chiefs get the #1 seed & it’s not even close.

Chargers lose to the Steelers.
Patriots lose to the Steelers.
Steelers lose to the Saints.
Texans lose to the Colts.

I'm not convinced the Patriots lose to the Steelers the way the Steelers played yesterday. Chiefs need to win out.

[Frazod]

I'm not convinced the Patriots lose to the Steelers the way the Steelers played yesterday. Chiefs need to win out.

The game's in Pittsburgh. New England sucks balls on the road.

[007]

The game's in Pittsburgh. New England sucks balls on the road.

The pats are higher on the pecking order with the refs. I don't see Pitt beating NE at all right now.

[Strongside]

New England will lose @ Pitt. Bank on it.

[Frazod]

The pats are higher on the pecking order with the refs. I don't see Pitt beating NE at all right now.

They’re higher in the pecking order than Detroit and Tennessee, too.

[htismaqe]

Chiefs get the #1 seed & it’s not even close.

Chargers lose to the Steelers.
Patriots lose to the Steelers.
Steelers lose to the Saints.
Texans lose to the Colts.

Yep. I think they walk into the #1 seed.

[htismaqe]

The pats are higher on the pecking order with the refs. I don't see Pitt beating NE at all right now.

NE isn't going to beat Pitt at Ketchup Stadium.

[O.city]

Yep. I think they walk into the #1 seed.

At 13-3. :D

[htismaqe]

At 13-3. :D

Nope. They're not losing again. The only reason they lost to the Rams is Mahomes turned it over. He's not going to melt down like that again.

[O.city]

Nope. They're not losing again. The only reason they lost to the Rams is Mahomes turned it over. He's not going to melt down like that again.

I'm just too "because Chiefs" jaded.

I look at the tough games and how they could lose etc. I'm kind of a sissy.

[O.city]

That Seattle game is gonna be a tough one. The Chargers at home and the Ravens at home will be tough games.

[htismaqe]

I'm just too "because Chiefs" jaded.

I look at the tough games and how they could lose etc. I'm kind of a sissy.

I was that way after the NE game.

After watching the Rams game, I just don't feel the same way anymore. The only thing that can truly stop Mahomes is Mahomes himself. I don't see him turning the ball over like that again so I don't see another loss.

Chargers will likely be tough because they put so much pressure on the defense. I could see it being another shoot out. Seattle, not so much and definitely not the Ravens.

[Strongside]

Man, I'm so tired of the apprehensiveness. If this kid hasn't shown you yet that this is a new era in Chiefs football, then you might as well just pack it in.

Here's a microcosm: Remember every time we'd face a 3rd and 8 or 9, and as a fan, you'd be all like, "Oh, great. Here comes a punt."

How do you feel about those situations now? If you're not saying to yourself, "Oh, here comes something crazy from Mahomes and we'll get this first down, no question." then you haven't been paying attention.

This is DIFFERENT. Get on board. Enjoy the ride.

If we make a deep playoff run you're going to hate yourself for being a pussy during the entire journey. Get over it.

[O.city]

Pat has been here 12 games. The Chiefs have melted down for my entire 31 years of existence.

It'll take me a bit to get past it.

[htismaqe]

Man, I'm so tired of the apprehensiveness. If this kid hasn't shown you yet that this is a new era in Chiefs football, then you might as well just pack it in.

Here's a microcosm: Remember every time we'd face a 3rd and 8 or 9, and as a fan, you'd be all like, "Oh, great. Here comes a punt."

How do you feel about those situations now? If you're not saying to yourself, "Oh, here comes something crazy from Mahomes and we'll get this first down, no question." then you haven't been paying attention.

This is DIFFERENT. Get on board. Enjoy the ride.

If we make a deep playoff run you're going to hate yourself for being a pussy during the entire journey. Get over it.

The Rams game had a pretty profound affect on me, honestly. After the Rams scored that last touchdown, all I could think was "Patrick is getting the ball back with almost 2 minutes left and timeouts to burn. They're going to win."

I said it before and I'll say it again - the only thing that can stop Mahomes is Mahomes. This team is making a Super Bowl run. They just are.

[Marcellus]

Pat has been here 12 games. The Chiefs have melted down for my entire 31 years of existence.

It'll take me a bit to get past it.

LMAO I can understand that.

[htismaqe]

Pat has been here 12 games. The Chiefs have melted down for my entire 31 years of existence.

It'll take me a bit to get past it.

I was right there with you until a week ago. Give it a chance. ;)

[DaFace]

Not surprising since they didn't play, but this week's results pretty much changed nothing for the Chiefs. Here's the latest.

55% HFA
76% 1st round bye
88% win the division
99%+ make the playoffs

[htismaqe]

Not surprising since they didn't play, but this week's results pretty much changed nothing for the Chiefs. Here's the latest.

55% HFA
76% 1st round bye
88% win the division
99%+ make the playoffs

It didn't change the percentages maybe but the Steelers losing to the Broncos was absolutely HUGE.

[DaFace]

It didn't change the percentages maybe but the Steelers losing to the Broncos was absolutely HUGE.

Yeah, if they hadn't lost, we would have lost ground a bit. That loss counteracted the (expected) wins from the Pats, Chargers, and Texans.

[O.city]

So we need the Steelers to beat the Chargers this week, then beat New England, then lose to the Saints?

[htismaqe]

So we need the Steelers to beat the Chargers this week, then beat New England, then lose to the Saints?

The Chiefs can take care of the Chargers so they're really third. We need the following losses, in order of priority:

1. New England
2. Pittsburgh
3. Chargers

[O.city]

Really, it's just damn New England that we need to lose a game or two.

[O.city]

Plus the Texans are becoming a bit of a worry. They may be the best all around team in the AFC at the moment.

[htismaqe]

Plus the Texans are becoming a bit of a worry. They may be the best all around team in the AFC at the moment.

No.

[Strongside]

A couple things to consider about this weekend:

NE Pass defense: 25th in NFL
MIN Pass offense: 7th in NFL

NE has had good success in the running game this year, using it to set up the play action and take pressure off of Brady – but Minnesota has a solid run defense.

NE rushing offense: 12th in NFL
MIN rushing defense: 4th in NFL

Do I expect NE to lose on Sunday? No.

But there's at least some reason to be hopeful that Minnesota could pull off an upset if Cousins and the run D have a big day.

[RunKC]

The Chiefs can take care of the Chargers so they're really third. We need the following losses, in order of priority:

1. New England
2. Pittsburgh
3. Chargers

I think I’d put the Texans at 3 instead of the Chargers. They have an easy remaining schedule.

[O.city]

A couple things to consider about this weekend:

NE Pass defense: 25th in NFL
MIN Pass offense: 7th in NFL

NE has had good success in the running game this year, using it to set up the play action and take pressure off of Brady – but Minnesota has a solid run defense.

NE rushing offense: 12th in NFL
MIN rushing defense: 4th in NFL

Do I expect NE to lose on Sunday? No.

But there's at least some reason to be hopeful that Minnesota could pull off an upset if Cousins and the run D have a big day.

If the Vikes could take care of NE and Pitt wins, the weekend would be nice to the Chiefs.

Gotta win in Oakland obviously.

[DaFace]

The models generally think that the Pats are our biggest threat to HFA, so universally, if you want HFA, you want the Pats to lose (even against the Steelers). After that, losses to the Steelers and Texans are important, but not as significantly.

If your goal is to avoid disaster by not winning the division, you want the Chargers to lose. That's about all there is to it.

No one else really matters.

[Strongside]

I feel like we're all beating around the bush with the bottom line here.

We control our own destiny.

Win the games you're supposed to win (all remaining) and none of this banter matters.

[O.city]

I feel like we're all beating around the bush with the bottom line here.

We control our own destiny.

Win the games you're supposed to win (all remaining) and none of this banter matters.

See, this is where I insert "because Chiefs".

They probably should win the rest of the games on the schedule, maybe not in Seattle, but everywhere else.

[Shag]

The Rams game had a pretty profound affect on me, honestly. After the Rams scored that last touchdown, all I could think was "Patrick is getting the ball back with almost 2 minutes left and timeouts to burn. They're going to win."

I said it before and I'll say it again - the only thing that can stop Mahomes is Mahomes. This team is making a Super Bowl run. They just are.

I actually cheered a little when the Rams scored that last TD, confident that this was going to be another story in the legend of Patrick Mahomes II. Obviously didn't happen, but I don't think I've ever had that feeling as a Chiefs fan. I definitely still have a little of the "because Chiefs" nag in the back of my head, but PMII is eating away at it quickly.

[htismaqe]

The models generally think that the Pats are our biggest threat to HFA, so universally, if you want HFA, you want the Pats to lose (even against the Steelers). After that, losses to the Steelers and Texans are important, but not as significantly.

If your goal is to avoid disaster by not winning the division, you want the Chargers to lose. That's about all there is to it.

No one else really matters.

The models are correct - NE is our biggest threat to HFA. We need them to lose, lose, and more lose.

[Strongside]

See, this is where I insert "because Chiefs".

They probably should win the rest of the games on the schedule, maybe not in Seattle, but everywhere else.

Seattle honestly doesn't scare me so much.

That's the same team that narrowly defeated AZ, and has lost to both Denver and the Chargers.

[suzzer99]

Tough place to play, they could be on a long winning streak and still playing for their playoff lives.

[RunKC]

Chargers are going to get curb stomped in Pittsburgh this Sunday. Then they’ll lose to us putting them at 5 losses.

Chargers in Denver in week 17 could decide who gets in the playoffs.

['Hamas' Jenkins]

Are you still sure that Pittsburgh is even good? They barely squeaked by the Jags and Bengals, and did everything they could to hand Denver the game with as many TO's inside the 20 as I've ever seen. They're a sloppy team that could easily have another three losses.

[BlackOp]

Chargers are going to get curb stomped in Pittsburgh this Sunday.

This is the Chargers "make or break" game...on the road, nationally televised against the Steelers...who just lost. If they win...I'll give them their due...but right now, they are just an over-hyped team that lost to the Donks at home.

Rivers is notorious for choking in high-stakes games...and Gordon is out. If they lose...it'll pretty much end any chance of winning the West. They'll have 3 conference losses vs. KC's one.

[KChiefs1]

Chargers are going to get curb stomped in Pittsburgh this Sunday. Then they’ll lose to us putting them at 5 losses.

Chargers in Denver in week 17 could decide who gets in the playoffs.



Chargers are staring at 3 losses which puts them at 10-6. The Denver game could determine seeding(5th or 6th) or even qualifying for the playoffs.

[KChiefs1]

https://youtu.be/t6q9Ahhh_m4

[DaFace]

Gained a little ground across the board this week with the win over the Raiders, but not a ton given the wins from the Chargers, Patriots, and Texans.

58% HFA
82% 1st round bye
90% win the division
99%+ make the playoffs

[DaFace]

Huge day today so far.

84% HFA
92% bye
92% win division
100% playoffs

So it's mostly just down to us and the Chargers.

[DaFace]

In case anyone still cares about the probabilities:

71% HFA
73% bye
74% win division
100% playoffs

Not that it's anything surprising, but it's almost entirely down to us and the Chargers now outside of some weird fringe scenarios. I'm pretty sure that, if we match their wins, we're in no matter what. That's all it comes down to.

[Coach]

So if that stimulator is correct, if LA Chargers lose on Saturday, and KC wins on Sunday, the division is already locked up on Week 16. with likehood HFA.

[O.city]

If we win Sunday and the chargers lose does that last week matter?

[DaFace]

So if that stimulator is correct, if LA Chargers lose on Saturday, and KC wins on Sunday, the division is already locked up on Week 16?

Correct. In that scenario, we would clinch a bye. The Texans could still theoretically catch us for HFA if they win both of their games, we lose against the Raiders, and some weird tiebreaking stuff goes their way, but that's pretty unlikely.

[Coach]

Correct. In that scenario, we would clinch a bye. The Texans could still theoretically catch us for HFA if they win both of their games, we lose against the Raiders, and some weird tiebreaking stuff goes their way, but that's pretty unlikely.

Yeah, when I see something that says 1% or less, I usually dismiss it because it would have to be something very incredible to happen, like how KC backed into the playoffs in 2006, I believe. That odds of happening is very slim.

Of course, it wouldn't had came to this scenario had they not crapped the bed last Thursday. Yes, I still cannot get over it.

[DaFace]

If we win Sunday and the chargers lose does that last week matter?

If, in week 16:

Chiefs win
Chargers lose
Texans win

And in week 17:
Chiefs lose
Texans win

Then there are tiebreaking scenarios where the Texans could take HFA from us. But I think it comes down to conference record, and we appear to be the heavy favorite to win that (73%) based on the model.

https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2018/upshot/kansas-city-chiefs-nfl-playoff-picture.html?_r=0#sf-sea-15=win&pit-ne-15=win&lac-bal-16=loss&phi-hou-16=loss&sea-kc-16=loss&hou-jax-17=win&kc-oak-17=loss&event=seed1

[ThaVirus]

Correct. In that scenario, we would clinch a bye. The Texans could still theoretically catch us for HFA if they win both of their games, we lose against the Raiders, and some weird tiebreaking stuff goes their way, but that's pretty unlikely.

So we truly hold our own destiny.

Perfect.

[DaFace]

So we truly hold our own destiny.

Perfect.

Yeah, 2-0 gets it done no matter what. 1-1 almost certainly gets it done if the Chargers lose to either the Ravens or the Broncos.

[Coach]

Yeah, 2-0 gets it done no matter what. 1-1 almost certainly gets it done if the Chargers lose to either the Ravens or the Broncos.

Well, I'd most prefer Baltimore doing us a solid by beating LA Chargers, and KC winning on Sunday.

Because games with Oakland is always super weird, regardless of records.

[CupidStunt]

I just ran the sim and changed up the only scenarios I see happening, and it has us or the Chargers always being the #1, and it basically comes down to next week. If we win we're virtually locked in (cannot fathom losing to OAK, period). If we and LAC both lose, we're 1. If we lose and LAC win, we're 5. I don't get HOU finishing 1 (of course, I didn't run sims where we lose 2 or the Chargers lose 2 - I don't see either happening, period).

[Coach]

I just ran the sim and changed up the only scenarios I see happening, and it has us or the Chargers always being the #1, and it basically comes down to next week. If we win we're virtually locked in (cannot fathom losing to OAK, period). If we and LAC both lose, we're 1. If we lose and LAC win, we're 5. I don't get HOU finishing 1 (of course, I didn't run sims where we lose 2 or the Chargers lose 2 - I don't see either happening, period).

Pretty much in Layman's terms,

Whoever wins the AFC West will most likely get the #1 seed. 2 seed still in play, but very unlikely.

[RINGLEADER]

I just ran the sim and changed up the only scenarios I see happening, and it has us or the Chargers always being the #1, and it basically comes down to next week. If we win we're virtually locked in (cannot fathom losing to OAK, period). If we and LAC both lose, we're 1. If we lose and LAC win, we're 5. I don't get HOU finishing 1 (of course, I didn't run sims where we lose 2 or the Chargers lose 2 - I don't see either happening, period).

If both the Chiefs and the Chargers lose the next two and the Patriots and Texans win the next two then HOU is the 1 seed, NE is the 2 seed, and we're the 3 seed. According to the ESPN Playoff thing...

[Iconic]

Well, I'd most prefer Baltimore doing us a solid by beating LA Chargers, and KC winning on Sunday.

Because games with Oakland is always super weird, regardless of records.

Their not even doing us a solid, their doing themselves one as well. Ravens and Steelers are fighting for the same playoff spot right now.

[RINGLEADER]

If both the Chiefs and the Chargers lose the next two and the Patriots and Texans win the next two then NE is the 1 seed, HOU is the 2 seed, and we're the 3 seed. According to the ESPN Playoff thing...

Sorry HOU is the 1 seed and NE is the 2 in this situation.

[NJChiefsFan]

I can't work out the scenario where HOU misses the playoffs. Did find a few funny scenarios where CLE goes to NE for the wildcard and where NE and PIT miss with TEN being the 2 seed.

[Raiderhater]

Well, I'd most prefer Baltimore doing us a solid by beating LA Chargers, and KC winning on Sunday.

Because games with Oakland is always super weird, regardless of records.


Records typically do not matter in that rivalry game. I never assume any out come and I never read too much into performances during those games. Find a way to escape with a win and move on.

[NJChiefsFan]

Records typically do not matter in that rivalry game. I never assume any out come and I never read too much into performances during those games. Find a way to escape with a win and move on.

I feel like people gloss over this way to much. Division games are tricky, no matter how lopsided the skill level is. You never know.

[Chiefs Pantalones]

Wk 16 AFC DIVISION CLINCHING scenarios:

@Patriots:
1) NE Win/Tie
2) MIA Loss/Tie

@steelers:
1) PIT WIN + BAL Loss/Tie
2) PIT TIE + BAL Loss

@HoustonTexans:
1) HOU Win/Tie
2) IND Loss/Tie + TEN Loss/Tie

@Chiefs clinch division and BYE:
1) KC WIN + LAC Loss


AFC Bye/#1 seed Scenarios:

@HoustonTexans clinch 1st Rd Bye with:
1) HOU WIN + NE Loss/Tie
2) HOU TIE + NE Loss

@Chiefs clinch #1 seed with:
1) KC WIN + LAC Loss + HOU Loss/Tie
2) KC WIN + LAC Loss + KC clinches Strength of Victory Tiebreaker over HOU

@goldystats @SNFonNBC

[KChiefs1]

I can't work out the scenario where HOU misses the playoffs. Did find a few funny scenarios where CLE goes to NE for the wildcard and where NE and PIT miss with TEN being the 2 seed.


I'd like to see Cleveland in the playoffs but I just don't see it.


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

[Chiefs Pantalones]

Also, the Chiefs can clinch the division and a first round bye by either beating the Seahawks OR the Raiders if the Chargers lose to the Ravens.

[DaFace]

87% HFA
92% bye
92% division
100% playoffs

It's pretty simple at this point.
We have home field advantage if:
Win over the Raiders (whether we win over the Seahawks or not)
Win over the Seahawks PLUS the Texans lose a game
We have at least a bye if:
Win over the Seahawks (but not the Raiders)
It gets complicated if:
We lose both games

[TLO]

87% HFA
92% bye
92% division
100% playoffs

It's pretty simple at this point.

Win over Raiders = Home field advantage
(I may be crazy here, but I don't think the Seahawks game matters if we beat the Raiders based on the NYT simulator.)

Win over the Seahawks (but not Raiders) = 1st round bye

The Texans are no threat even if we lose tomorrow? That was my main concern.

I say we win both games, just for good measure.

[DaFace]

The Texans are no threat even if we lose tomorrow? That was my main concern.

I say we win both games, just for good measure.

I'm just trusting the simulator (which has always been rock solid in the past). But according to it, if we win over the Raiders, the Seahawks game doesn't matter. I'm assuming that's because we'd beat the Texans in the conference record tiebreaker if we beat the Raiders, while we wouldn't if we lost to the Raiders.

[KChiefs1]

I'm just trusting the simulator (which has always been rock solid in the past). But according to it, if we win over the Raiders, the Seahawks game doesn't matter. I'm assuming that's because we'd beat the Texans in the conference record tiebreaker if we beat the Raiders, while we wouldn't if we lost to the Raiders.


The only game that matters now is Oakland. The Chiefs could beat Seattle and lose to Oakland and be the two seed if Houston wins out.

[DaFace]

The only game that matters now is Oakland. The Chiefs could beat Seattle and lose to Oakland and be the two seed if Houston wins out.

I wouldn't say it doesn't matter. The difference between #5 and #2 is massive. If you assume that playoff games are damn close to a coin flip, getting a bye at least DOUBLES our chances of making it to the Super Bowl. The difference between #2 and #1 matters, but not near as much as #5 and #2.

While HFA is nice, having to play one game on the road isn't THAT big of a deal. I'd still love to win over Seattle to lessen the pressure a bit.

[-King-]

I wouldn't say it doesn't matter. The difference between #5 and #2 is massive. If you assume that playoff games are damn close to a coin flip, getting a bye at least DOUBLES our chances of making it to the Super Bowl. The difference between #2 and #1 matters, but not near as much as #5 and #2.

While HFA is nice, having to play one game on the road isn't THAT big of a deal. I'd still love to win over Seattle to lessen the pressure a bit.

This. Unless there's an injury tomorrow or we just lose in terrible fashion, I won't be too mad at a loss because I view the raiders game as a 100% win if it comes down to that game.

Worst case scenario is that we have to play the conference championship somewhere else. I'll take that
Posted via Mobile Device

[jjchieffan]

I'm good with just clinching the first round bye. Houston is one of the least scary teams in the playoffs imho. I fully expect them to lose in their first game. So, if KC is the 2 seed, the AFCCG will still be at Arrowhead. Only difference is who we play in our first game. Assuming that the current standings hold, round 1 would be #3 NE vs #6 Baltimore and #4 Pittsburgh vs #5 LAC. I think that NE and LAC advance. As the 2 seed, that gives us the Patriots at Arrowhead. I think that we win that. Chargers go to Houston and win. Making the AFCCG LAC at KC. If we're the 1, then we face the Chargers first, then the Patriots after they beat the Texans. Same teams, still at Arrowhead, just different order.

[Eleazar]

So really, the only chance to blow it is to lose both games.

Thanks, Baltimore!

[BigRedChief]

The Oakland game is the only one we have to win to have HFA no matter who wins other games.

[TwistedChief]

I'm good with just clinching the first round bye. Houston is one of the least scary teams in the playoffs imho. I fully expect them to lose in their first game. So, if KC is the 2 seed, the AFCCG will still be at Arrowhead. Only difference is who we play in our first game. Assuming that the current standings hold, round 1 would be #3 NE vs #6 Baltimore and #4 Pittsburgh vs #5 LAC. I think that NE and LAC advance. As the 2 seed, that gives us the Patriots at Arrowhead. I think that we win that. Chargers go to Houston and win. Making the AFCCG LAC at KC. If we're the 1, then we face the Chargers first, then the Patriots after they beat the Texans. Same teams, still at Arrowhead, just different order.

This is basically where I'm at. The Chargers' losing is just so huge and completely undoes the cloud of malaise that's enveloped this team since we blew that lead.

[Rain Man]

This is basically where I'm at. The Chargers' losing is just so huge and completely undoes the cloud of malaise that's enveloped this team since we blew that lead.

Yeah, this was huge in terms of restoring optimism.

On the Seattle game, the way I read it is that the Seattle game only matters if we don't beat Oakland, but if we don't beat Oakland, a Seattle loss would likely have seismic, catastrophic impacts. We can still drop to the #5 seed in that case and likely would, and we would almost certainly lose the #1 seed in any case, and likely the entire bye week.

If we beat Seattle, then the worst-case scenario is the #2 seed.

So the Seattle game is still really important just in the chance that we somehow blow the big game against the Raiders. And I've got enough Playoff Traumatic Stress Disorder that I don't want the Raiders game to be do or die, because if that's the case then something weird will happen. Something weird has always happened in those situations.

[suzzer99]

If we somehow lose our next two games, all kinds of weird scenarios open up. We could get the #3 seed. Not to mention we'd be headed into the playoffs on a 3 game losing streak.

[007]

ESPN shows that we can beat the seahawks and lose to the raider which causes the texans to move to the one seed. I thought we had all the tiebreakers with the texans?

[DaFace]

ESPN shows that we can beat the seahawks and lose to the raider which causes the texans to move to the one seed. I thought we had all the tiebreakers with the texans?

That gets into "it's complicated" scenarios. We win about 60% of the time with those.

https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2018/upshot/kansas-city-chiefs-nfl-playoff-picture.html?_r=0#phi-hou-16=loss&sea-kc-16=loss&hou-jax-17=win&kc-oak-17=loss&event=seed1

[TwistedChief]

Yeah, this was huge in terms of restoring optimism.

On the Seattle game, the way I read it is that the Seattle game only matters if we don't beat Oakland, but if we don't beat Oakland, a Seattle loss would likely have seismic, catastrophic impacts. We can still drop to the #5 seed in that case and likely would, and we would almost certainly lose the #1 seed in any case, and likely the entire bye week.

If we beat Seattle, then the worst-case scenario is the #2 seed.

So the Seattle game is still really important just in the chance that we somehow blow the big game against the Raiders. And I've got enough Playoff Traumatic Stress Disorder that I don't want the Raiders game to be do or die, because if that's the case then something weird will happen. Something weird has always happened in those situations.

If we lose 3 in a row to end the season (including Oakland), there's no part of me that thinks we deserve a home playoff game. So I'm at peace if that's somehow how this finishes.

But fuck that. We have Mahomes. No way that's how this ends up.

[007]

That gets into "it's complicated" scenarios. We win about 60% of the time with those.

https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2018/upshot/kansas-city-chiefs-nfl-playoff-picture.html?_r=0#phi-hou-16=loss&sea-kc-16=loss&hou-jax-17=win&kc-oak-17=loss&event=seed1

Just ran this simulator and it shows 100% to the texans if they win out and we lose to the raider but beat the seahawks. Don't really like that the seahawks game is almost meaningless other than preventing falling to the three seed.

[DaFace]

Just ran this simulator and it shows 100% to the texans if they win out and we lose to the raider but beat the seahawks. Don't really like that the seahawks game is almost meaningless other than preventing falling to the three seed.

Are you sure about that? Should be 58% for the Chiefs.

And it's only meaningless if you're taking the Raiders game for granted. Your choice to do so at your own mental risk. I don't count any game as a given.

[007]

jesus, the cowboys bucs game actually causes quiet a shift in our status with the texans. weird.

[Coach]

Are you sure about that? Should be 58% for the Chiefs.

And it's only meaningless if you're taking the Raiders game for granted. Your choice to do so at your own mental risk. I don't count any game as a given.

Especially divisional games, regardless if the division is wrapped up or not.

[DaFace]

jesus, the cowboys bucs game actually causes quiet a shift in our status with the texans. weird.

We start getting into strength of victory and strength of schedule tiebreakers. Like I said, it gets complicated.

[007]

Are you sure about that? Should be 58% for the Chiefs.

And it's only meaningless if you're taking the Raiders game for granted. Your choice to do so at your own mental risk. I don't count any game as a given.

I just picked the winners of all games based on my own thoughts. Everything I did still came down to the raiders game. If the texans win both of their games the raider game is a must win.

[Coach]

I just picked the winners of all games based on my own thoughts. Everything I did still came down to the raiders game. If the texans win both of their games the raider game is a must win.

I think the Eagles are going to beat Houston.

[New World Order]

Saw it in another thread.

Conference record is what’s going to determine the tiebreaker with Houston.

When we beat Oakland we land the 1 seed

[chiefforlife]

Saw it in another thread.

Conference record is what’s going to determine the tiebreaker with Houston.

When we beat Oakland we land the 1 seed

Beating Oakland is not a given. I would like to win tomorrow and take it before Oakland.

[007]

Saw it in another thread.

Conference record is what’s going to determine the tiebreaker with Houston.

When we beat Oakland we land the 1 seed

Well I would prefer Oakland not having the opportunity to play spoiler. Go Philly.

[007]

Beating Oakland is not a given. I would like to win tomorrow and take it before Oakland.

thats the thing. We beat the Seahawks it doesn't mean anything. It all comes down to Oakland unless the Texans drop a game.

[DaFace]

thats the thing. We beat the Seahawks it doesn't mean anything. It all comes down to Oakland unless the Texans drop a game.

If we beat the Seahawks, we have a bye. That's incredibly important.

[suzzer99]

Yeah because Texans as a #1 seed will be super vulnerable. So we'd still stand a good chance of playing two games at home.

[007]

If we beat the Seahawks, we have a bye. That's incredibly important.

I'm just looking at the 1 seed. Even if we lose to the hawks we still secure it by beating the raiders. Disaster would be losing both.

I agree, take care of business and just win these games.

That said. GO EAGLES

[chiefforlife]

thats the thing. We beat the Seahawks it doesn't mean anything. It all comes down to Oakland unless the Texans drop a game.

If we lose to the Seahawks and Texans win, we are tied and could lose the one seed. If we win out, no one can catch us.

We need to WIN OUT! GO CHIEFS!!

[007]

If we lose to the Seahawks and Texans win, we are tied and could lose the one seed. If we win out, no one can catch us.

We need to WIN OUT! GO CHIEFS!!

in your scenario, the chiefs would only need to beat the raiders and get the one seed.

Yes, win out, but a loss tomorrow is not the end of the world now.

[BigRedChief]

ESPN shows that we can beat the seahawks and lose to the raider which causes the texans to move to the one seed. I thought we had all the tiebreakers with the texans?we lose to the Seahawks but beat the Raiders we get HFA. We lose to the raiders but beat Seattle the Texans own the better conference record and get HFA.

[007]

we lose to the Seahawks but beat the Raiders we get HFA. We lose to the raiders but beat Seattle the Texans own the better conference record and get HFA.

Regardless, GO Eagles.