Paying Fools Top Tier Contracts

[Buehler445]

There is a lot of talk here about paying our guys. I have significant reservations about paying fools top tier contracts outside of QB. No, it isn't shell shock from Berry/Houston. A lot of thought has went into my position. There is a hell of a lot of nuance with contract structure, age, the player, etc., but the bottom line is that it is unlikely that dudes under big contracts will account for enough production that equates to winning games to justify the contracts.

I am and have been a production per unit salary cap guy and I just don't see it with the top tier contracts. Let's look through the top 5 contracts at various positions. All numbers from overthecap.com.

RB
Todd Gurley 5 years $57.5M ($14.375M avg) $21.95M Guaranteed.
David Johnson 3 years $39M ($13 avg) $24.69M Guaranteed
Devonta Freeman 5 years $41.25M ($8.25M avg) $18.3 Guaranteed
LeSean McCoy 5 years $40.05M ($8.01M avg) $18.25 Guaranteed
Saquon Barkley 5 years $31.2 M (7.8M avg) $31.2 Guaranteed (pending option)

Pretty unanimous that RBs aren't worth the money. I'd agree looking at this. In a big game, Rams went away from Gurley. Arizona, Atlanta, Buffalo, and NY are all missing the playoffs and these guys look to be doing NOTHING to contribute to wins. I like Hunt, but looking at this list, Yuck.

WR
OBJ 5 years $90M ($18M avg) $40.96M Guaranteed
Antonio Brown 4 years $68M ($17M avg) $19M Guaranteed
Mike Evans 5 years $82M ($16.5M avg) $38.3M Guaranteed
DeAndre Hopkins 5 years $81M (16.2 avg) $36.5M Guaranteed
Brandin Cooks 5 years $81M (16.2 avg) $20.46M Guaranteed


There are some good arguments for these guys. Steelers aren’t the same when Brown is out. DeAndre Hopkins is really good and does a lot of bailing out of Watson. Cooks is contributing. I don’t want him for that coin, but he’s a good player on a good team. OBJ though, Christ the Giants are bad and he is definitely not carrying much of a load in terms of wins. TB is a joke and Evans is not good. OBJ is definitely one of the top guys and if he can peel off that much AND the team be THAT bad, how much is he contributing to wins? I’m not sure I want to be in that game. Reek is other worldly, but 20M/100M? For a speed guy? Man, I don’t know.

DL
Aaron Donald 6 years $135M ($22.5M avg) $50M Guaranteed
Ezekiel Ansah 1 year $17.1 M $17.1M Guaranteed (Franchise)
Demarcus Lawrence 1 year $17.1 M $17.1M Guaranteed (Franchise)
Fletcher Cox 6 years $102.6M ($17.1M avg) $36.3M Guaranteed
JJ Watt 7 years $100M ($16.7M avg) $20.9M Guaranteed

That list is a little weird with 2 guys on the tag. Donald and Cox are good but 100M?! Yeesh. And Watt is another guy who is good but is hurt all the time. I love Chris Jones, but II think we all saw he’s not Donald, and he’s probably not Watt. I don’t think I want him up there.

Pass Rush
Khalil Mack 6 years $141M ($23.5M avg) $60M Guaranteed
Von Miller 5 years $114M (19.1M avg) $42M Guaranteed (Fuck Donk Forever)
Oliver Vernon 4 years $85M ($17M avg) $40M Guaranteed
Justin Houston 5 years $101M ($16.8M avg) $32.5M Guaranteed
Chandler Jones 4 Years $82.5M ($16.5M avg) $31M Guaranteed.

We all know the Justin Houston story. Mack is lighting the world on fire, but it is year 1. Von Douche is good but he ain’t carrying shit these days. Vernon is another motherfucker who obviously isn’t contributing shit to wins on that fuck of a Giants team. Same with Jones in Arizona. I like Jones, but they’re obviously not winning because of him. I am most certainly NOT looking to make Dee Ford paid like one of these dudes.

Corner
Josh Norman 5 Years $75M ($15M avg) $36.5M Guaranteed.
Trumaine Johnson 5 Years $72.5M ($14.5M avg) $34M Guarnteed.
Xavier Rhodes 5 years $70.1M (14M avg) $20M Guaranteed
Patrick Peterson 5 years $70M (14M avg) $16.5M Guaranteed
Kyle Fuller 4 years $56M ($14M avg) $18M Guaranteed

I don’t I want Nelson to be up there. These numbers are more palatable, but Nelson really isn’t very good.

I’d argue that paying guys top contracts don’t work out. Other than QB. If you have a top flight QB, you hold on to him. But when you look through this list and objectively think about what these guys contribute in terms of wins, I don’t see it.

That’s not to say don’t pay anybody anything. Obviously that won’t work, but top tier contracts rarely work out. I’d probably rather pay a dude like Scandrick than Trumaine Johnson. I mean, yeah, if these guys walk (and they will in all likelihood) for this kind of money, it will suck, but we are in cap hell because of bad contracts – contracts that don’t provide good production per unit Salary Cap.

My opinion: Offer these guys middling reasonable contracts – maybe guarantee more of it, but I don’t want these giant contracts.

[kcpasco]

2 players this team absolutely must keep. Mahomes and Hill, everyone else is debatable. I’d pay Tyreek this offseason, he might hold out anyways.

[Hammock Parties]

The value of RBs has plummeted as the passing rules have relaxed.

It's honestly kinda shitty.

I would pine for 90s football if we didn't have Patrick Mahomes.

[RunKC]

Good post.

I would pay Tyreek Hill right now and be fine with it. I think he’s worth it. I’d also offer a contract to Chris Jones, but not at or higher than Aaron Donald’s.
Dee Ford will probably get the tag, but if he gets a contract I’d like it to be a 3 year deal like Sammy’s. That would mean his money is off the books when Mahomes starts getting big money to the cap on his deal.

Everyone else is expendable. Hunt, Fuller, Nelson, Ragland, Conley, Butker, Morse.

[Buehler445]

2 players this team absolutely must keep. Mahomes and Hill, everyone else is debatable.

I'm not there on Hill for 20M per.

OBJ is legit. But the Giants are total fuck even with him on there. Obviously he's not contributing to wins.

Plus if we extend him after next year he'll be 30 by the end of a 5 year deal and will probably have lost a step. I'm not all about speed guys who are aging.

Christ it sucks ass, but I think it's the thing to do. He's going to get PAID and I don't think it should be us.

Remember when Manning had Marvin Harrison and everyone thought he was the best ever. Remember when Manning didn't have Marvin Harrison?

I think Hill is better than Harrison, but looking through that list, particularly OBJ, it's tough for me to pay a guy that doesn't contribute to wins.

[Hammock Parties]

I'm not there on Hill for 20M per.


You're insane.

He makes everyone on the offense better.

He is invaluable.

[Buehler445]

Good post.

I would pay Tyreek Hill right now and be fine with it. I think he’s worth it. I’d also offer a contract to Chris Jones, but not at or higher than Aaron Donald’s.
Dee Ford will probably get the tag, but if he gets a contract I’d like it to be a 3 year deal like Sammy’s. That would mean his money is off the books when Mahomes starts getting big money to the cap on his deal.

Everyone else is expendable. Hunt, Fuller, Nelson, Ragland, Conley, Butker, Morse.

I don't think you can extend Hill until after next season. I think that's right anyway.

Sammy's at 15, Houston is at 17. I can't justify wrapping up that kind of money in 2 OLB with so many games missed to injury.

Jones, even if he's below Donald, is still a FUCKLOAD of cash. And there are games when Jones disappears. That shit just gives me heebeejeebees.

[Buehler445]

You're insane.

He makes everyone on the offense better.

He is invaluable.

So is OBJ. And they have 2 motherfucking wins. And a supposed legit QB.

If you get 2 guys at half the salary will you get the same production?

I don't know, because Hill is really fucking special. And I don't want him to walk.

I just don't want a hamstring pull away from $20M per on the bench.

[pugsnotdrugs19]

WADR, I don’t really think the argument of guys getting paid a lot but not winning games is good when evaluating this. It’s not OBJ or David Johnson’s fault that their teams suck. Look at the QB situations, the offensive line, etc.

Tyreek is developing into a top 3 WR if he isn’t already and he literally is the most dangerous player in football right now. He can’t get away. Watkins’ contract right now is a luxury and once he’s off the books, we basically replace his salary with Tyreek. I understand letting Ford go after tagging him for a year because of his injury history, but Jones is starting to look like a true game wrecker and that’s hard to pass up.

You can’t pinch pennies with superstars. Absolutely can’t do it. I mean just look at what Oakland did getting rid of Mack and what he has done for Chicago.

[pugsnotdrugs19]

It’s going to be really sad if/when we have to let Kareem walk.

[kcpasco]

It would be like the Steelers not paying Brown and I think Hill is as good or even better. It’s just talent you aren’t gonna replace in the draft.

[kcpasco]

It’s going to be really sad if/when we have to let Kareem walk.

Yeah I love Hunt but I’m not paying top money to a RB unless I have no QB and desperate for offense.

Look at all those years of JC being our best player got us.

[Buehler445]

WADR, I don’t really think the argument of guys getting paid a lot but not winning games is good when evaluating this. It’s not OBJ or David Johnson’s fault that their teams suck. Look at the QB situations, the offensive line, etc.

Tyreek is developing into a top 3 WR if he isn’t already and he literally is the most dangerous player in football right now. He can’t get away. Watkins’ contract right now is a luxury and once he’s off the books, we basically replace his salary with Tyreek. I understand letting Ford go after tagging him for a year because of his injury history, but Jones is starting to look like a true game wrecker and that’s hard to pass up.

You can’t pinch pennies with superstars. Absolutely can’t do it. I mean just look at what Oakland did getting rid of Mack and what he has done for Chicago.

We didn't with Houston and Berry and look how devastating that is to our cap. Bowe went to shit after he got paid. Cassel ROFL. Flowers got injured a fuckton after we paid him. Looking back through ours and a bunch of other fools' rosters and MAN big contracts don't work out.

[kcpasco]

We didn't with Houston and Berry and look how devastating that is to our cap. Bowe went to shit after he got paid. Cassel ROFL. Flowers got injured a ****ton after we paid him. Looking back through ours and a bunch of other fools' rosters and MAN big contracts don't work out.

Maybe I’m being naive but I don’t see Hill turning into a bum like Bowe. Houston and Berry have been snake bit with injuries.

[pugsnotdrugs19]

We didn't with Houston and Berry and look how devastating that is to our cap. Bowe went to shit after he got paid. Cassel ROFL. Flowers got injured a ****ton after we paid him. Looking back through ours and a bunch of other fools' rosters and MAN big contracts don't work out.

You’re highlighting some of KCs flops, and with the case of Berry and Houston it has been freak injuries (although I don’t think the book is fully written for those two’s legacy in KC).. but what about other teams?

Antonio Brown’s deal has been great for Pittsburgh. Aaron Donald is off to a hell of start, as well as Mack. Chandler Jones too. Belichick paid Gilmore a ton and it has paid off. There’s a ton of positive examples too.

I’m sure there’s a happy medium in there somewhere, but you can’t just let every star player walk out of fear that they’re going to have fluke injuries or whatever. Like Dwayne Bowe and Matt Cassel weren’t even very good players. We’re talking about Hill, Jones, etc. here.

[Buehler445]

It would be like the Steelers not paying Brown and I think Hill is as good or even better. It’s just talent you aren’t gonna replace in the draft.

I agree. We can't replace the talent, but can we replace the production? I mean Albert Wilson is making less than half of $20M. If get 2 Albert Wilsons for 16, will they get to Reek's production with Mahomes?

[pugsnotdrugs19]

If a guy changes the game truly and has to be account for every play, I’d say you keep him.

Hill definitely falls under that category and Jones and Ford have so far this year. I’d keep Jones.

[pugsnotdrugs19]

I agree. We can't replace the talent, but can we replace the production? I mean Albert Wilson is making less than half of $20M. If get 2 Albert Wilsons for 16, will they get to Reek's production with Mahomes?

You can’t replicate what Hill does. He has to be schemed for every play. Safety help. Off coverage. All kinds of shit, jet motion, option, you name it.

No one can do what he does. Sean Payton and Drew Brees even said he’s the most dangerous player in football just a week ago.

[DRM08]

Tyreek is absolutely worth the money. Completely changes how DC’s call plays and how the defensive players behave on the field. This opens up things all over the field for other receivers.

[Buehler445]

You’re highlighting some of KCs flops, and with the case of Berry and Houston it has been freak injuries (although I don’t think the book is fully written for those two’s legacy in KC).. but what about other teams?

Antonio Brown’s deal has been great for Pittsburgh. Aaron Donald is off to a hell of start, as well as Mack. Chandler Jones too. Belichick paid Gilmore a ton and it has paid off. There’s a ton of positive examples too.

I’m sure there’s a happy medium in there somewhere, but you can’t just let every star player walk out of fear that they’re going to have fluke injuries or whatever. Like Dwayne Bowe and Matt Cassel weren’t even very good players. We’re talking about Hill, Jones, etc. here.

Yeah, I follow. But I still can't get over how often these things DON'T work out. And if you are going to tell me that these guys are on shit teams so we shouldn't hold that against them, the same argument can be made for good teams. If Brown/Donald was on a shit team would they still produce?

LAR was getting pressure from a bunch of dudes not making Donald money and Rape gets production out of a bunch of dudes. I think Brown is a success story because they aren't as good when he's out.

[pugsnotdrugs19]

I am glad you made this thread though because it’s a good time to discuss these things over the bye.

Personally, I don’t expect us to be active in FA really at all this year. I think Veach knows that he’s got a loaded roster that will require plenty of cap space to maintain, and his draft choice pool in 2019 is pretty solid. I don’t imagine he’s going to tie much guaranteed money into any UFAs from other teams knowing all of these big decisions that are coming ahead.

We’re going to build through the draft, but unlike the Packers (who have tried to do that despite a lack of overall strong roster talent), we already have the star talent on the roster to reload cost efficiently.

[kcpasco]

As much as I love Mahomes and want to declare him the messiah, he’s not this good without Tyreek. Pay Hill his money and let’s fix this defensive secondary before we need to make Pat the highest player ever.

[Buehler445]

You can’t replicate what Hill does. He has to be schemed for every play. Safety help. Off coverage. All kinds of shit, jet motion, option, you name it.

No one can do what he does. Sean Payton and Drew Brees even said he’s the most dangerous player in football just a week ago.

Yeah, I'm with you, but there are lots of good offenses that operate without a dude like Hill (Because there aren't any). But the question was can you replace the production? And I get that it is isn't just catches, it's getting other dudes open.

I'm not necessarily opposed to paying him, It's just going to really strap our cap and if there is and injury, like there often is for explosive speed guys, man we are fucked. Again. Like usual. I just think we need to be open to letting him walk.

[TwistedChief]

Realistically we don't need to make each and every one of these decisions at the same time. They're likely going to be staggered and we have draft capital to plug some holes so it's not as daunting as it sounds.

That said, the thought of watching Tyreek Hill on any other team in the NFL makes me want to vomit. He makes so many other parts of our offense more effective that his individual stats might underrepresent his contribution as much as any player in the NFL (if that's even possible looking at a 1600yd season). I was always a huge Percy Harvin fan as he was the most explosive football player I had ever seen, but Hill runs circles around him. Pay the man his money.

[Brooklyn]

I agree. We can't replace the talent, but can we replace the production? I mean Albert Wilson is making less than half of $20M. If get 2 Albert Wilsons for 16, will they get to Reek's production with Mahomes?



Two nickels don’t equal a dime. Pay hill.


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

[O.city]

I was gonna day just that Buehler. 4 quarters don’t always equal a dollar.

It’s tough but some guys you can’t replace

[Why Not?]

You pay Hill. Period. If he gets hurt, you shake your head and hope your stud QB can help elevate the practice squad guy that gets called up but, under no circumstance should Tyreek Hill play a snap for another team until he is past 30, at the least.

[Amnorix]

I look at this Chiefs team and I think the core is Mahomes/Hill/Kelce. Those are the guys that can lead them to the promised land. So look at their contracts.

So Hill is signed through 2019 and will be 25 when that contract ends. He's on an ultra-team friendly contract, as is Mahomes

https://overthecap.com/player/tyreek-hill/4878

Mahomes is on through 2020, again with a very team friendly deal.

Kelce is signed through 2021, at which point he is 32 years old. The deal isn't stunning team friendly, but it's perfectly fine with cap charges that never exceed $10.5 million.

https://overthecap.com/player/tyreek-hill/4878


I think you can pay both Mahomes and Hill near/at top of the contract range and keep Kelce. Hunt you have to let go if he's looking for stupid money (and of course he will be). RBs are fungible.

Houston is 29 now, and his contract runs through 2020 with cap charges at $20MM. 31 isn't too old for a defender, but I doubt you extend past the current contract at those numbers. He's not Donald or anything.

Even under the Patriots system, you pay the guys that are serious difference-makers -- that win you championships. You can plug and play alot of guys, but the guys who are potential first ballot HOFers, you can't replace.

[kccrow]

I'm paying Hill top WR in football money if that's what it takes. He changes the game dynamic for defenses so much that you cannot replace it. It isn't just the production HE gets, it's the production he CREATES for others. As for every other Tom, Dick, and Harry on the offense aside from Mahomes, yeah I'll replace them.

Also, teams end up paying for positions that are incredibly hard to find good players at. That's why they end up paying huge money for a QB, a pass rusher, a tackle, and so forth. There are only so many Khalil Mack's and Von Miller's to go around. It's not about whether a guy can replicate a 22 sack season like Justin Houston had, it's whether or not you can project a guy like that to CONSISTENTLY get 10+ sacks. If he can, he's rare and he gets paid. Sure, every year you have a guy step up and get a bunch of sacks on a cheap deal, but he doesn't do it every single year. If you are counting on guys to do that for you every year, you're going to be disappointed.

If you look at say, the last 5 years of sack data and you pull out only the guys that have 10 or more sacks, then you'll find that the average number of guys reaching that number is 18.6. However, the number of unique players to reach that number is 61, or an average of 12.2. The other interesting thing is that of that list, no player has had 10+ sacks all 5 years. Only 2 have had 10+ sacks in 4 of the 5 years (Chandler Jones and Von Miller). Only 9 have had 10+ sacks in 3 of the 5 years (Jones, Miller, Ryan Kerrigan, Terrell Suggs, Khalil Mack, JJ Watt, Everson Griffen, Cameron Wake, and Cameron Jordan). If you drop down to 2 of 5 years with 10+ sacks, you add 12 more players to get to a total of 21 guys that have shown over the past 5 seasons they can duplicate a 10+ sack season. Now, some of players haven't been in the league long enough to get 3 or 4 seasons, but that's really negligible and by the time they are due to get paid again they either will or won't. What you see though, is that the list of guys that can get 10+ sacks with any consistency is VERY small. Dee Ford is one of those guys that is set to duplicate 10 sacks in 5 seasons if he gets one more this year. He's going to be one of those rare guys that not every team has but every team wants.

So when you look at units of production, it's not simply a question of what he did for you this year. Justin Houston probably isn't getting to 10 sacks this year but he's one of those guys that, when he got paid, had just come off 3 consecutive 10+ sack seasons and 3 of 4. The year he got injured, he was on pace for a 4th consecutive. When he was back to full strength last season, he had 9.5. People bag on Houston, but he's one of those guys that is pretty damned rare. The chances that you are going to draft a player every few years that can do what these guys do at the top of the pecking order is slim.

[Red Dawg]

Sucks we can't keep all our stars, just wont happen. It looks like 2019 is our shot if we fall short this year. After that we start losing a few.

[Flying High D]

So is OBJ. And they have 2 motherfucking wins. And a supposed legit QB.

If you get 2 guys at half the salary will you get the same production?

I don't know, because Hill is really fucking special. And I don't want him to walk.

I just don't want a hamstring pull Haglund deformity away from $20M per on the bench.

FYP

[BigRedChief]

2 players this team absolutely must keep. Mahomes and Hill, everyone else is debatable. I’d pay Tyreek this offseason, he might hold out anyways.We have two more years of Hunt, then he's going somewhere else. We cant pay him.

As long as he doesn't have an injury that would lessen his speed, agreed, Hill is a must sign. Biggest WR contract ever. Following year, Mahomes gets the biggest QB contract ever. We will just have to make do with the Conleys of the NFL, just like Brady had to for most of his years.

[BigRedChief]

Sucks we can't keep all our stars, just wont happen. It looks like 2019 is our shot if we fall short this year. After that we start losing a few.Core of Hill/Hunt/Kelce/Mahomes is locked in for 2019 and 2020. Watkins is only for 2019.

[RunKC]

Beuhler, I get what you’re saying, but I’m with pugs here. These guys won’t take middling contracts.

If we let all or even 90% of them walk, that would put a tremendous amount of stress on Veach to replace them, which is impossible seeing that they all are FA’s around the same time.

[pugsnotdrugs19]

We have two more years of Hunt, then he's going somewhere else. We cant pay him.

As long as he doesn't have an injury that would lessen his speed, agreed, Hill is a must sign. Biggest WR contract ever. Folloeing year, Mahomes gets the biggest QB contract ever. We will just have to make do with the Conleys of the NFL, just like Brady has to for most of his years.

Mahomes will never play with better playmakers than he has right now but I don’t think it will ever be a bad group necessarily. Even with NE, Tom has always had a few good pass catchers as long as they didn’t get hurt.

Idk, I like Veach and even though he hasn’t been perfect (no GM is), I love that he seems to be so methodical and detailed. I think he eats, sleeps, and breathes stuff like this that we’re talking about. I think he is a great talent evaluator, and a guy who has an ever evolving plan at all times. Wbf with he and Reid leading the charge.

[Marcellus]

We can afford to pay Hill and Mahomes and one defensive guy.

I mean you do have to pay someone and the argument to not pay Hill is INSANE, he is as rare a talent as Mahomes.

[BigRedChief]

Mahomes will never play with better playmakers than he has right now I've said all year that our shit defense is going to bite us in the ass in the post season at some point. Maybe Mahomes can overcome that shit defense just like he almost did on Monday.

We are going to cut or modify the contracts of Barry and Houston. We will have some cap money to buy us some defensive help. We have 2 2nd's and a 1st to get some defensive help in the draft.

[pugsnotdrugs19]

I've said all year that our shit defense is going to bite us in the ass in the post season at some point. Maybe Mahomes can overcome that shit defense just like he almost did on Monday.

We are going to cut or modify the contracts of Barry and Houston. We will have some cap money to buy us some defensive help. We have 2 2nd's and a 1st to get some defensive help in the draft.

That’s the beautiful thing about where we are right now. We’re likely going to see the Chiefs built to win in several different ways around Mahomes, and we’ll just see what works best. Right now it’s elite offense around him with a study front four, in 4-5 years it might be lobsided toward defense altogether, or maybe they end up with a balance of just good on both sides of the ball. That cap money is going to be spread somehow around Mahomes and I don’t know where, but I don’t expect us to be far from the cap ceiling ever.

[shitgoose]

The case for Hill is that he hasn't even fully tapped his potential as a WR. Plus, I've never seen a guy who can sustain the level of play that he does for an entire game. His conditioning is remarkable.

[Buehler445]

Yeah. I said in the OP the WR group is the one that looked the most promising. And Hill is probably the guy that is the most likely to be a legit elite talent not a flash in the pan.

I look at this Chiefs team and I think the core is Mahomes/Hill/Kelce. Those are the guys that can lead them to the promised land. So look at their contracts.

So Hill is signed through 2019 and will be 25 when that contract ends. He's on an ultra-team friendly contract, as is Mahomes

https://overthecap.com/player/tyreek-hill/4878

Mahomes is on through 2020, again with a very team friendly deal.

Kelce is signed through 2021, at which point he is 32 years old. The deal isn't stunning team friendly, but it's perfectly fine with cap charges that never exceed $10.5 million.

https://overthecap.com/player/tyreek-hill/4878


I think you can pay both Mahomes and Hill near/at top of the contract range and keep Kelce. Hunt you have to let go if he's looking for stupid money (and of course he will be). RBs are fungible.

Houston is 29 now, and his contract runs through 2020 with cap charges at $20MM. 31 isn't too old for a defender, but I doubt you extend past the current contract at those numbers. He's not Donald or anything.

Even under the Patriots system, you pay the guys that are serious difference-makers -- that win you championships. You can plug and play alot of guys, but the guys who are potential first ballot HOFers, you can't replace.

Coincidentally Belichick hasn’t paid WRs top money as far as I know. Moss and Stalworth were on criminally small contracts and the short white guy crew isn’t making big money.

[Buehler445]

I'm paying Hill top WR in football money if that's what it takes. He changes the game dynamic for defenses so much that you cannot replace it. It isn't just the production HE gets, it's the production he CREATES for others. As for every other Tom, Dick, and Harry on the offense aside from Mahomes, yeah I'll replace them.

Also, teams end up paying for positions that are incredibly hard to find good players at. That's why they end up paying huge money for a QB, a pass rusher, a tackle, and so forth. There are only so many Khalil Mack's and Von Miller's to go around. It's not about whether a guy can replicate a 22 sack season like Justin Houston had, it's whether or not you can project a guy like that to CONSISTENTLY get 10+ sacks. If he can, he's rare and he gets paid. Sure, every year you have a guy step up and get a bunch of sacks on a cheap deal, but he doesn't do it every single year. If you are counting on guys to do that for you every year, you're going to be disappointed.

If you look at say, the last 5 years of sack data and you pull out only the guys that have 10 or more sacks, then you'll find that the average number of guys reaching that number is 18.6. However, the number of unique players to reach that number is 61, or an average of 12.2. The other interesting thing is that of that list, no player has had 10+ sacks all 5 years. Only 2 have had 10+ sacks in 4 of the 5 years (Chandler Jones and Von Miller). Only 9 have had 10+ sacks in 3 of the 5 years (Jones, Miller, Ryan Kerrigan, Terrell Suggs, Khalil Mack, JJ Watt, Everson Griffen, Cameron Wake, and Cameron Jordan). If you drop down to 2 of 5 years with 10+ sacks, you add 12 more players to get to a total of 21 guys that have shown over the past 5 seasons they can duplicate a 10+ sack season. Now, some of players haven't been in the league long enough to get 3 or 4 seasons, but that's really negligible and by the time they are due to get paid again they either will or won't. What you see though, is that the list of guys that can get 10+ sacks with any consistency is VERY small. Dee Ford is one of those guys that is set to duplicate 10 sacks in 5 seasons if he gets one more this year. He's going to be one of those rare guys that not every team has but every team wants.

So when you look at units of production, it's not simply a question of what he did for you this year. Justin Houston probably isn't getting to 10 sacks this year but he's one of those guys that, when he got paid, had just come off 3 consecutive 10+ sack seasons and 3 of 4. The year he got injured, he was on pace for a 4th consecutive. When he was back to full strength last season, he had 9.5. People bag on Houston, but he's one of those guys that is pretty damned rare. The chances that you are going to draft a player every few years that can do what these guys do at the top of the pecking order is slim.

Good post. Hadn’t seen those numbers on pass rush before.

[wazu]

Hill absolutely cannot be let go while he’s still in his twenties. He and Mahomes will get deals making them highest paid at their positions in league history. After that do what you can do, and draft well.

[Buehler445]

Beuhler, I get what you’re saying, but I’m with pugs here. These guys won’t take middling contracts.

If we let all or even 90% of them walk, that would put a tremendous amount of stress on Veach to replace them, which is impossible seeing that they all are FA’s around the same time.

Agreed. That’s what I’m saying is those guys might need to walk. But Veach is under a bunch of stress now to find dudes that can play with no cap space because the 2 giant ass contracts we have are fucking us.

[notorious]

Hill absolutely cannot be let go while he’s still in his twenties. He and Mahomes will get deals making them highest paid at their positions in league history. After that do what you can do, and draft well.

I agree if you add Kelce.

Everyone else is expendable.

[jaa1025]

Hill should be the #1 priority this off season. I'd sign him to his second contract but not a 3rd contract. I'd also sign Chris Jones. I think the only way to play defense now is to rush the passer with ball hawking DB's and the new lean Chris Jones is becoming one of the best on the DL in the league.

They don't want to wait till next year for either of them.

[Buehler445]

I was gonna day just that Buehler. 4 quarters don’t always equal a dollar.

It’s tough but some guys you can’t replace

A more succinct metaphor is two bills don’t always equal $100.

Math people! :D

[Buehler445]

I agree if you add Kelce.

Everyone else is expendable.

I’d wager Kelce is on his last contract with KC. He’s making big money now, has concussions, and will be on the downside when his contract expires.

[wazu]

I agree if you add Kelce.

Everyone else is expendable.

I’d love to add a few years for Kelce. He’ll be 32, so want to make sure he doesn’t start to break down, but he seems like he could be one of those guys that plays late into his 30s at a high level.

[notorious]

I will take a reduction in offense if we can balance the team.

Can you accept a reduction in offense if it means getting 2 really good players on defense?

[Buehler445]

Hill should be the #1 priority this off season. I'd sign him to his second contract but not a 3rd contract. I'd also sign Chris Jones. I think the only way to play defense now is to rush the passer with ball hawking DB's and the new lean Chris Jones is becoming one of the best on the DL in the league.

They don't want to wait till next year for either of them.

Chris Jones is a prime example of what I’m talking about. He’s had a lot of games where he disappears. I get where we are all coming from given our luck with DL but I don’t see the value there. I say that as he has a pretty ridiculous Sack streak on so I’m open to the idea that I may be full of shit.

But if he wants Donald money he needs to get it elsewhere IMO.

[notorious]

I’d wager Kelce is on his last contract with KC. He’s making big money now, has concussions, and will be on the downside when his contract expires.

Yeah, I was on the fence a little with Kelce. His style of play lends that he will end up on the cart eventually.

[pugsnotdrugs19]

I think if you tag Ford next year and he replicates what he has done this season so far, you may go ahead and replace Houston’s contract with a new one for him.

But idk if it will be financially feasible at that point or not.

[RunKC]

I think if you tag Ford next year and he replicates what he has done this season so far, you may go ahead and replace Houston’s contract with a new one for him.

I think Chris Jones is getting Houston’s money, but I hope they can make it work.

[pugsnotdrugs19]

This whole conversation really makes you appreciate the roster we currently have. Window is wide open.

[Gravedigger]

Franchise Ford. Pay Jones. Pay Hill. Cut Houston, or renegotiate way down. Cut Berry, or settle through a buyout. Focus on Defense and Oline in the draft.

[Amnorix]

Coincidentally Belichick hasn’t paid WRs top money as far as I know. Moss and Stalworth were on criminally small contracts and the short white guy crew isn’t making big money.


BB paid Gronk top money -- he was the highest paid TE in the NFL for a while.

Let's face it, other than Moss, the Patriots haven't had a WR that was remotely worth top money. Cooks makes it now, but, I mean, does anything think he's a top 5 WR? He's paid like he is, and he's really good, but he'll never wear a Gold Jacket.

And half of the Patriots run with BB was "old NFL", before all these rules changes that make Hill twice as dangerous as he would've been 10-15 years ago.

I think you MUST keep Hill tbh. 25 and entering his prime, with an elite QB. Those are two big pieces to any championship formula.

[Amnorix]

This whole conversation really makes you appreciate the roster we currently have. Window is wide open.


ESPECIALLY while Mahomes is dramatically underpaid. That's alot of spare cheddah to throw around to do things precisely like extend Hill or bring in someone that you think fits a key need.

[RunKC]

Something else to keep in mind is paying our defensive guys and nobody on offense outside of Tyreek/Mahomes.

Look at all the talent Andy is able to find through the draft since he became a coach?

Brian Westbrook
DeSean Jackson
Brett Celek
Jeremy Maclin
DeSean Jackson
Donovan McNabb
Jason Kelce
Travis Kelce
Kareem Hunt
Tyreek Hill
LDT

Also a few steals for production like Albert Wilson and Zach Fulton.

Morse and LDT are out and we are fine this year. Coincidence? I think Andy will keep talent on the offense at a low price. It’s the defense that has been worrisome.

[BigRedChief]

Man, I’m getting tired of saying this but it has to be said again.......

the Chiefs have an option year in 2021 to keep Mahomes on his rookie contract. It was a 5 year contract if the Chiefs want that option year.

[pugsnotdrugs19]

Man, I’m getting tired of saying this but it has to be said again.......

the Chiefs have an option year in 2021 to keep Mahomes on his rookie contract. It was a 5 year contract if the Chiefs want that option year.

An option that will still probably put his cap hit around or beyond $20M.

You may as well just extend him as fast as possible. Get ahead of it and pay less.

[BigRedChief]

An option that will still probably put his cap hit around or beyond $20M.

You may as well just extend him as fast as possible. Get ahead of it and pay less.true but that $20million hit is probably going to $40 million by then if he hit the open market.

[Reerun_KC]

Did you take into account the emotional attachment from the fans?

[pugsnotdrugs19]

true but that $20million hit is probably going to $40 million by then if he hit the open market.

Possibly, and if the discrepancy is that large then maybe they do wait until his 6th year to extend.

I won’t blame Patrick if he doesn’t but personally, I wouldn’t be surprised if he ends up being like Brady and taking discounts. He just seems to care about winning and being great that badly that it wouldn’t shock me totally. After the 2nd contract at least.

[IowaHawkeyeChief]

Possibly, and if the discrepancy is that large then maybe they do wait until his 6th year to extend.

I won’t blame Patrick if he doesn’t but personally, I wouldn’t be surprised if he ends up being like Brady and taking discounts. He just seems to care about winning and being great that badly that it wouldn’t shock me totally. After the 2nd contract at least.


Is his girlfriend a supermodel that makes $140 million a year? :hmmm:

We at least need to get Mahomes brand selling which helps skirt the cap and income... You know TB12 is sold inside Gillette,..

[Chiefnj2]

There is no right or wrong way to build and pay for your team. Everyone wants to chase the latest trend, but there really isn't any (other than QB's get paid).

Last 3 Super Bowl teams and 3 largest cap hits

Eagles - Jeffrey, WR(10.7M), Johnson, RT (9.8M), Cox, DT (9.4)
Pats - Brady (14), Solder, LT (11.1), McCourty, CB (10.9)

Pats - Brady (13.7), Solder, LT (10.3), Hightower, LB (7.7)
Falcons - Ryan (23.7), Jones (15.9), Jackson, DE (6.35 - thanks Pioli)

Broncos - Manning (17.5), Thomas (13.2), Clady, LT (10.6)
Panthers - Johnson, DE (20), Newton (13), Kalil, C (11.8)

[RunKC]

Possibly, and if the discrepancy is that large then maybe they do wait until his 6th year to extend.

I won’t blame Patrick if he doesn’t but personally, I wouldn’t be surprised if he ends up being like Brady and taking discounts. He just seems to care about winning and being great that badly that it wouldn’t shock me totally. After the 2nd contract at least.

Man I’m wondering what the QB landscape will look like now that Cousins changed it.

Fully guaranteed contracts might be the new thing in the NFL.

[Buehler445]

Did you take into account the emotional attachment from the fans?

Well this line of thinking started from my assumption that you pay the homegrown guys.

Then Mac459 texted me the edge list and where we thought Ford fit in. YIKES. Then I went down a rabbit hole.

[pugsnotdrugs19]

Man I’m wondering what the QB landscape will look like now that Cousins changed it.

Fully guaranteed contracts might be the new thing in the NFL.

New CBA is coming up too right around when Mahomes is due for an extension.

I would LOVE to see the league go to fully guaranteed contracts that make deals 2-3 years more common. If we had that with Berry right now, it’d be awesome.

[Buehler445]

There is no right or wrong way to build and pay for your team. Everyone wants to chase the latest trend, but there really isn't any (other than QB's get paid).

Last 3 Super Bowl teams and 3 largest cap hits

Eagles - Jeffrey, WR(10.7M), Johnson, RT (9.8M), Cox, DT (9.4)
Pats - Brady (14), Solder, LT (11.1), McCourty, CB (10.9)

Pats - Brady (13.7), Solder, LT (10.3), Hightower, LB (7.7)
Falcons - Ryan (23.7), Jones (15.9), Jackson, DE (6.35 - thanks Pioli)

Broncos - Manning (17.5), Thomas (13.2), Clady, LT (10.6)
Panthers - Johnson, DE (20), Newton (13), Kalil, C (11.8)

Good info. Thanks.

Brady At 14M. Christ. Hopefully Clark does the same sweetheart deal for Pat.

[O.city]

I'm guessing we end up with a decently long lockout when the CBA expires.

[Buehler445]

New CBA is coming up too right around when Mahomes is due for an extension.

I would LOVE to see the league go to fully guaranteed contracts that make deals 2-3 years more common. If we had that with Berry right now, it’d be awesome.

Someone on here suggested cap% contracts for QBs. I’d be down with that. Then there is no quibbling over gurantees and shit.

[loochy]

I look at this Chiefs team and I think the core is Mahomes/Hill/Kelce. Those are the guys that can lead them to the promised land. So look at their contracts.

So Hill is signed through 2019 and will be 25 when that contract ends. He's on an ultra-team friendly contract, as is Mahomes

https://overthecap.com/player/tyreek-hill/4878

Mahomes is on through 2020, again with a very team friendly deal.

Kelce is signed through 2021, at which point he is 32 years old. The deal isn't stunning team friendly, but it's perfectly fine with cap charges that never exceed $10.5 million.

https://overthecap.com/player/tyreek-hill/4878


I think you can pay both Mahomes and Hill near/at top of the contract range and keep Kelce. Hunt you have to let go if he's looking for stupid money (and of course he will be). RBs are fungible.

Houston is 29 now, and his contract runs through 2020 with cap charges at $20MM. 31 isn't too old for a defender, but I doubt you extend past the current contract at those numbers. He's not Donald or anything.

Even under the Patriots system, you pay the guys that are serious difference-makers -- that win you championships. You can plug and play alot of guys, but the guys who are potential first ballot HOFers, you can't replace.

+1 This is the best take. The Mahomes/Hill/Kelce trio is synergistic and it's what makes the O work. Take a leg from the tripod and it falls over. Get Hunt and Mahomes done long-term ASAP while they're cheap (relatively). That's a risk I'd definitely take. A decent RB can be had in the draft, so adios Hunt (I do love you though). Berry - gone, Houston - gone (or cheap, which I doubt), keep Jones....that's a good amount of money to work with, especially considering the ever-inflating salary cap.
Posted via Mobile Device

[Buehler445]

BB paid Gronk top money -- he was the highest paid TE in the NFL for a while.

Let's face it, other than Moss, the Patriots haven't had a WR that was remotely worth top money. Cooks makes it now, but, I mean, does anything think he's a top 5 WR? He's paid like he is, and he's really good, but he'll never wear a Gold Jacket.

And half of the Patriots run with BB was "old NFL", before all these rules changes that make Hill twice as dangerous as he would've been 10-15 years ago.

I think you MUST keep Hill tbh. 25 and entering his prime, with an elite QB. Those are two big pieces to any championship formula.

To be fair the Patriots molded the modern NFL with that Moss jagernaut. And they didn’t think it was worth the money then. When everyone else was still thinking Larry Fucking Johnson was the franchise piece.

[Easy 6]

I cant buy any kind of Hill/OBJ comparisons, OBJ doesnt have the same level of drive and commitment to his craft as Hill does, in my estimation

Then of course we can always point to what a turd OBJ has apparently been behind the scenes... something thats never been a problem for Hill

[oldman]

As I see it, the musts on the offense are Mahomes, Hill, and Kelce, with Hunt almost in that group.We're good with Watkins for 2 more years and WR #-3-6 are pretty much mix and match, so let's start looking at the O-line. We're going to need both Ts in a couple years, a LG and C. I'm not sure we don't have a couple of those guys under contract right now a a friendly price. Lots of Big 10 talent out there this spring.
On the other side of the ball, Jones is the only one I see we must have. Ford is playing for a contract, period. I just don't see him as a long-term solution. Franchise him if we have to. We're stuck with the Houston contract, so let's get Speaks in there more. I think I'm semi-OK with our ILB situation. Our secondary needs help, especially at the S position. Berry's contract, as it stands now, is a boat anchor. I just can't justify pumping a lot of cash into another big name S when we have some question marks like Lucas and Watts already on the payroll and Berry maybe giving us a couple more years.

[Buehler445]

I cant buy any kind of Hill/OBJ comparisons, OBJ doesnt have the same level of drive and commitment to his craft as Hill does, in my estimation

Then of course we can always point to what a turd OBJ has apparently been behind the scenes... something thats never been a problem for Hill

He was a BIGGER turd before they gave him the big money.

And try hard doesn’t account for much in terms of production. Part of the reason OBJ hasn’t improved as much as Hill is because Hill was a RB. The poster that brought up locking him up BEFORE he reaches his zenith is valid.

But let’s be real here. I want to cunt punt OBJ as much as the next guy. I think he’s a piece of shit that if we had that contract out I’d be concerned about him going off the rails TO style. All that being said, the talent is there. He has scored an absurd amount of TDs off slant patterns. He’s good down field but he got that jack because he is (or maybe was - I’m not watching those abortions of Giants game) unguardable in the short game. That short area quickness and top end speed - even if it isn’t hill speed is nuts. The talent is legit and the production was there. He earned the contract. But that doesnt mean the giants should have paid it.

[Simply Red]

Scandrick will be gone - he gets exposed against great receivers, he's serviceable, otherwise. He will get a job, but I don't want to keep him. (& to be fair, I like him okay)

Sammy will be gone after next season, no way around that, I don't think.

[O.city]

He was a BIGGER turd before they gave him the big money.

And try hard doesn’t account for much in terms of production. Part of the reason OBJ hasn’t improved as much as Hill is because Hill was a RB. The poster that brought up locking him up BEFORE he reaches his zenith is valid.

But let’s be real here. I want to **** punt OBJ as much as the next guy. I think he’s a piece of shit that if we had that contract out I’d be concerned about him going off the rails TO style. All that being said, the talent is there. He has scored an absurd amount of TDs off slant patterns. He’s good down field but he got that jack because he is (or maybe was - I’m not watching those abortions of Giants game) unguardable in the short game. That short area quickness and top end speed - even if it isn’t hill speed is nuts. The talent is legit and the production was there. He earned the contract. But that doesnt mean the giants should have paid it.

He's also playing with washed ass Eli.

As much as I love Tyreek, he's playing with a QB that literally might have a cannon attached to his right arm. You couldn't really design a better QB to play to Hills strengths

[Easy 6]

He was a BIGGER turd before they gave him the big money.

And try hard doesn’t account for much in terms of production. Part of the reason OBJ hasn’t improved as much as Hill is because Hill was a RB. The poster that brought up locking him up BEFORE he reaches his zenith is valid.

But let’s be real here. I want to **** punt OBJ as much as the next guy. I think he’s a piece of shit that if we had that contract out I’d be concerned about him going off the rails TO style. All that being said, the talent is there. He has scored an absurd amount of TDs off slant patterns. He’s good down field but he got that jack because he is (or maybe was - I’m not watching those abortions of Giants game) unguardable in the short game. That short area quickness and top end speed - even if it isn’t hill speed is nuts. The talent is legit and the production was there. He earned the contract. But that doesnt mean the giants should have paid it.

Not long after they paid him, during the Giants early struggles, he went behind his teams back to the press questioning whether or not he should've come back to NY

Calling out Eli, his coaches etc... they'd just given him a bajillion dollars, and that was the thanks they got, it was ridiculous

He surely has talent, but I'd still say he doesnt have the same level of dedication, or team first attitude as Hill

[pugsnotdrugs19]

Idk fellas, this stuff is all fun to talk about but at the end of the day it’s out of our control and we’ve got a great season rolling.

We’ve got one of the most explosive offenses the league has ever seen, and we can rush the passer with the front four as good as anybody. It’s a great, great combination to have.

This could finally be the year.

[Valiant]

As years go by the contracts would not hurt as much for guys like hill.

I would pay hill, mahomes and Jones.

If I could talk them into a group discount I would see if they would do it. Give them cheaper years but add in incentive bonuses. That way if they drop off it lessens what we pay them in later years.

Ford I would tag. My gut is telling me we will have another Houston after he gets paid. Transition allows us to match. Franchise if we want to try one more year or trade.

I also want us to switch to 4 3.

As for hunt. He is good but his style won't last the contract. Elite guys are worth it still IMO if you don't have a qb. Amazing when you do like gurley.
Hell I think new England makes a play if bell hits free agency. Not at his contract demand though.

[dlphg9]

I cant buy any kind of Hill/OBJ comparisons, OBJ doesnt have the same level of drive and commitment to his craft as Hill does, in my estimation

Then of course we can always point to what a turd OBJ has apparently been behind the scenes... something thats never been a problem for Hill

Wouldn't it really suck if Hill became a huge asshole after he got paid and this whole time he's been putting on a show, because he knew he wouldn't get paid if he didn't keep his shit together. I'm pretty positive that won't happen, but money makes people do weird things.

Now I don't want one of you asshole idiots that thinks they have to take every thing serious coming in here calling me an idiot, because like I said I don't think it will happen. I'd just in a sad way think it was kinda funny.

[dlphg9]

As years go by the contracts would not hurt as much for guys like hill.

I would pay hill, mahomes and Jones.

If I could talk them into a group discount I would see if they would do it. Give them cheaper years but add in incentive bonuses. That way if they drop off it lessens what we pay them in later years.

Ford I would tag. My gut is telling me we will have another Houston after he gets paid. Transition allows us to match. Franchise if we want to try one more year or trade.

I also want us to switch to 4 3.

As for hunt. He is good but his style won't last the contract. Elite guys are worth it still IMO if you don't have a qb. Amazing when you do like gurley.
Hell I think new England makes a play if bell hits free agency. Not at his contract demand though.

I think the problem with basing contracts on incentives is that most guys aren't going to go for that. They know that production can just fall off a cliff no matter how hard they try. They also know players get hurt all the damn time and if they get hurt they can't hit their incentives. The players only care about what they are guaranteed.

The only way I could see the players being ok with incentives is if those incentives are extremely high, but still they know their health isn't guaranteed.

[Buehler445]

He's also playing with washed ass Eli.

As much as I love Tyreek, he's playing with a QB that literally might have a cannon attached to his right arm. You couldn't really design a better QB to play to Hills strengths

Yeah. Eli is horribad. But even last season he was just housing fuckers on slants. Literally nobody does that.

Not long after they paid him, during the Giants early struggles, he went behind his teams back to the press questioning whether or not he should've come back to NY

Calling out Eli, his coaches etc... they'd just given him a bajillion dollars, and that was the thanks they got, it was ridiculous

He surely has talent, but I'd still say he doesnt have the same level of dedication, or team first attitude as Hill

Oh yeah he was a cunt. But he was throwing such a goddamned fit with 2 damn years left on his contract I would have thrown him on the street.

God he was a cunt.

[notorious]

Good info. Thanks.

Brady At 14M. Christ. Hopefully Clark does the same sweetheart deal for Pat.

Pat needs to set up side businesses for a Clark to funnel the rest of his pay through.

[SAUTO]

Man, I’m getting tired of saying this but it has to be said again.......

the Chiefs have an option year in 2021 to keep Mahomes on his rookie contract. It was a 5 year contract if the Chiefs want that option year.

You aren't telling anyone anything they don't know. So you can quit repeating yourself.

[Buehler445]

Pat needs to set up side businesses for a Clark to funnel the rest of his pay through.

Fuck man if that’s all it takes, I’ll do it. I can have an EIN in an hour.

[ghak99]

Pat needs to set up side businesses for a Clark to funnel the rest of his pay through.

They should be pouring concrete for a ketchup factory as we speak.

Arrowhead vendors could use A LOT of ketchup. If fans knew Ketchup was keeping Mahomes in town on a Brady type of dynasty deal they'd be drinking ketchup flavored beer by the buckets and packing their pockets full of packets from every vendor in the place.

[srvy]

I cant buy any kind of Hill/OBJ comparisons, OBJ doesnt have the same level of drive and commitment to his craft as Hill does, in my estimation

Then of course we can always point to what a turd OBJ has apparently been behind the scenes... something thats never been a problem for Hill

So true OBJ reminds me of a more talented D. Bowe in fact this thread reminds me of the pay Bowe threads of past.

The difference is Reek put in the work in off season and made himself into a wide receiver not just a gimmick. Dedication deserves to be rewarded Reek gets his. Players like Bowe never put in the work and yet got rewarded.

Lock in Hill as leagues highest paid receiver and cross your fingers on his health he will reward us years to come.

[Reerun_KC]

Sucks we can't keep all our stars, just wont happen. It looks like 2019 is our shot if we fall short this year. After that we start losing a few.

And replacing them with younger explosive talent.

[ChiefBlueCFC]

DL
Aaron Donald 6 years $135M ($22.5M avg) $50M Guaranteed
Ezekiel Ansah 1 year $17.1 M $17.1M Guaranteed (Franchise)
Demarcus Lawrence 1 year $17.1 M $17.1M Guaranteed (Franchise)
Fletcher Cox 6 years $102.6M ($17.1M avg) $36.3M Guaranteed
JJ Watt 7 years $100M ($16.7M avg) $20.9M Guaranteed

That list is a little weird with 2 guys on the tag. Donald and Cox are good but 100M?! Yeesh. And Watt is another guy who is good but is hurt all the time. I love Chris Jones, but II think we all saw he’s not Donald, and he’s probably not Watt. I don’t think I want him up there.

Donald is worth the money he's making bc he is absolute wrecking ball and disrupts shit almost at will.

Watt is the same, but as you said he's had issues with health.

Jones is damn good but he isn't $100M good. Maybe in a few years.

However, if we take care of these contracts sooner rather than later, we can save money. Dorsey's issue with Berry and Houston contracts is he waited until their contracts ran up.

[kysirsoze]

Saying OBJ isn't worth it because they aren't winning doesn't apply to Hill at all. Eli fucking blows. OBJ would absolutely be worth it with even an above average QB. Where the Ginats fucked up is drafting Barkley. Total waste. Paying Hill with Mahomes to throw to him is a no brainer. It HAS to happen.

[Dunerdr]

I. Not reading the whole thread but, Aaron Rodgers has had a lot of nickels and really no quarters maybe a few dimes. And look at his fucking career. Continue treading water every year.

[St. Patty's Fire]

So is OBJ. And they have 2 motherfucking wins. And a supposed legit QB.

If you get 2 guys at half the salary will you get the same production?

I don't know, because Hill is really fucking special. And I don't want him to walk.

I just don't want a hamstring pull away from $20M per on the bench.

We’re not re-signing OBJ with the intent of playing him with a washed up/always overrated Eli Manning.

If we were a question mark at QB, then yes giving Hill that 20M might be unwise.

But he will be playing with the best QB in the league moving forward. You absolute give Reek WHATEVER he wants. The offense wouldn’t be the same without him.

[BigRedChief]

You aren't telling anyone anything they don't know. So you can quit repeating yourself.maybe Mr. Mod you should quit following me around making snide comments? Just a thought.

[Hydrae]

So true OBJ reminds me of a more talented D. Bowe in fact this thread reminds me of the pay Bowe threads of past.

The difference is Reek put in the work in off season and made himself into a wide receiver not just a gimmick. Dedication deserves to be rewarded Reek gets his. Players like Bowe never put in the work and yet got rewarded.

Lock in Hill as leagues highest paid receiver and cross your fingers on his health he will reward us years to come.

Normally I would not want to give a long term contract to a speedster. When the speed is gone, they are usually done. But Tyreek has worked so hard to become a true WR and learning the route tree that I think he will still be quite good after the speed drops.

I also think he may well give us a "home team discount" since we took a chance on him when many in the league would not have drafted him in any round.

[BossChief]

2019 FAs (48m cap space after rollover)

Conley
Nelson
Morse
Bailey
Ford
Sherman
Harris

2020 FAs (65m in cap space)

Hill
Robinson
Jones
Williams
Fuller
Ragland
Murray

[MahiMike]

I'm not there on Hill for 20M per.

OBJ is legit. But the Giants are total **** even with him on there. Obviously he's not contributing to wins.

Plus if we extend him after next year he'll be 30 by the end of a 5 year deal and will probably have lost a step. I'm not all about speed guys who are aging.

Christ it sucks ass, but I think it's the thing to do. He's going to get PAID and I don't think it should be us.

Remember when Manning had Marvin Harrison and everyone thought he was the best ever. Remember when Manning didn't have Marvin Harrison?

I think Hill is better than Harrison, but looking through that list, particularly OBJ, it's tough for me to pay a guy that doesn't contribute to wins.

Umm we have Patrick freaking Mahomes. Not broke dick Eli. Pay Hill whatever he wants. We need him.

[JakeF]

It's usually decided about the position. Certain positions are move valuable than others. Those positions often have longer NFL lifespans too. QB,Passrusher,LT,WR,CB

WR and CB have begun more valuable recently.

[Buehler445]

2019 FAs (48m cap space after rollover)

Conley
Nelson
Morse
Bailey
Ford
Sherman
Harris

2020 FAs (65m in cap space)

Hill
Robinson
Jones
Williams
Fuller
Ragland
Murray

Woah. That’s bad. Some of those guys can get bent or play for peanuts. Some of those are going to HURT.

[JakeF]

Umm we have Patrick freaking Mahomes. Not broke dick Eli. Pay Hill whatever he wants. We need him.
You can't pay anyone whatever they want. It hurts the rest of the team too much.

If we get rid of our overpaid Mash unit players we will have tons of money.

[JakeF]

2019 FAs (48m cap space after rollover)

Conley
Nelson
Morse
Bailey
Ford
Sherman
Harris

2020 FAs (65m in cap space)

Hill
Robinson
Jones
Williams
Fuller
Ragland
Murray
2019 is pretty easy, Ford is the only problem. Allen Bailey is playing much better now though but he's still not worth 8m. Ford might want huge money and I'm not sure we should pay him. Conley should be an easy keep.

2020 Hill and Jones are important keeps, the rest depends on how much they want.

[SAUTO]

maybe Mr. Mod you should quit following me around making snide comments? Just a thought.

That wasn't a snide comment. I was just stating facts. You were the one crying about being tired of saying something over and over that literally everyone here knows.

There's a reason to try and lock them up early.

Oh and I can't believe you are being a drama queen (actually i can, it fits right in with you) saying I'm following you around. When was your last post I even commented on? Had to be at least weeks ago.

[Buehler445]

Umm we have Patrick freaking Mahomes. Not broke dick Eli. Pay Hill whatever he wants. We need him.

I agree.

But I feel compelled to ask whether or not we really do need him. Brady has done GOAT performances with fuckall for talent. Manning the same after Harrison shot up fools. Rodgers has done a lot with not much at receiver. I believe Mahomes is in that class. So does it make sense to drop top dollar on a WR? Or would the money be better served on the line and the other side of the ball.

Hill is insane and is going to get fat paid. And I think it should be us. But I don’t know for sure.

The problem with letting our guys walk because they’re too expensive is other guys in free agency are too damn expensive too.

Replacing Nelson is going to SUCK Scandrick isn’t long for the league so both our outside guys are going to need good money unless a draft pick can start year one. Same with Jones/Bailey. It’s going to be real expensive and that’s why Hill gives me hesitation though.

I still think we sign him, but man, there are some bleak outlooks out there.

[Buehler445]

I. Not reading the whole thread but, Aaron Rodgers has had a lot of nickels and really no quarters maybe a few dimes. And look at his fucking career. Continue treading water every year.

That’s kind of the crux of the issue. It’s not whether to spend money. Without looking I think GB is, i don’t hear about them constantly being at the floor or anything.

But Rodgers has made a good offense out of bad talent. But they can’t buy a stop. Rather than having bad defense and a great offense maybe a decent defense and above average offense would yield better results than GB has seen.

Rodgers’ only SB win was when they had some talent on D.

[BossChief]

Looking at possible FA corners...it’s sbsolutely debatable if we should keep Steven Nelson or not. He’s quite possibly the best FA option on the market. Veach might be wise to extend him sooner rather than later.

If I’m running the team, I’m seeing if I can retain Bailey, Sherman and Nelson on reasonable deals (if they want too much let em walk and get a comp pick in 2020 for them) franchising Ford and letting the rest hit FA...hoping for good comp picks from Conley and Morse.

[RunKC]

I think people are too upset about Houston and Berry. We must remember the good things that have happened with paying players.

Kelce has been 100% worth the money. Schwartz has never missed a snap in his career. Fisher is an average tackle who has played well minus 1 game and has played something like 50 straight games without injury.

It sucks what happened to Justin Houston. That was a terrible, unlucky injury. If that didn’t happen, would we be singing a different tune about him?

As for Berry, I think that’s a valuable lesson that we shouldn’t pay big money or a long (more than 3 year deal) to a player on his 3rd contract.

[BossChief]

Guys I’m targeting in FA...if their respective position guy in KC is allowed to walk.

Landon Collins
Earl Thomas
Honey Badger
Lamarcus Joyner
Shane Rey/Shaq Barrett
Kareem Jackson
Ronald Darby
Demarcus Lawrence

[SAUTO]

I would pass on Thomas at this point I think

[BossChief]

I think people are too upset about Houston and Berry. We must remember the good things that have happened with paying players.

Kelce has been 100% worth the money. Schwartz has never missed a snap in his career. Fisher is an average tackle who has played well minus 1 game and has played something like 50 straight games without injury.

It sucks what happened to Justin Houston. That was a terrible, unlucky injury. If that didn’t happen, would we be singing a different tune about him?

As for Berry, I think that’s a valuable lesson that we shouldn’t pay big money or a long (more than 3 year deal) to a player on his 3rd contract.

This was Eric’s 2nd contract

[BossChief]

I would pass on Thomas at this point I think

Why?

Imo he’s probably the top guy I’d target. He’s a good tackler and is a ballhawk that changes games. He should also be affordable and would allow us to possibly have 2 elite safeties to take away the deep pass if Berry returns to form.

[SAUTO]

Why?

Imo he’s probably the top guy I’d target. He’s a good tackler and is a ballhawk that changes games.

Who knows how that leg is going to go, he's older , he's probably going to want 50 million

[BossChief]

Who knows how that leg is going to go, he's older , he's probably going to want 50 million

Nobody’s giving a 30 year old safety 50m. Broken bones heal stronger than before the break and he’s been a very reliable player in his career

He will be lucky to get 3 years in the mid 20s...if that.

[SAUTO]

Nobody’s giving a 30 year old safety 50m.

He will be lucky to get 3 years in the mid 20s...if that.

We'll see. He's going to get more than mid 20s IMO

[SAUTO]

But if he would sign for 3 and 21-25 million I might change my stance on it

[JakeF]

Looking at possible FA corners...it’s sbsolutely debatable if we should keep Steven Nelson or not. He’s quite possibly the best FA option on the market. Veach might be wise to extend him sooner rather than later.

If I’m running the team, I’m seeing if I can retain Bailey, Sherman and Nelson on reasonable deals (if they want too much let em walk and get a comp pick in 2020 for them) franchising Ford and letting the rest hit FA...hoping for good comp picks from Conley and Morse.
I love Sherman but we almost never use a fullback anymore.

I don't like Nelson at all, but he's a cornerback and they are so important. We pretty much have to keep him unless Veach goes out and finds a replacement.

[BossChief]

We'll see. He's going to get more than mid 20s IMO

Dude...look what the league said about safeties over the last year...

NY and TB put their young safeties on the market.

Honey Badger got peanuts

Numerous good safeties were still FAs well into free agency and into the PS and even regular season.

[BossChief]

I love Sherman but we almost never use a fullback anymore.

I don't like Nelson at all, but he's a cornerback and they are so important. We pretty much have to keep him unless Veach goes out and finds a replacement.

KC has nobody but Fuller at corner after this year.

They need to with keep him or replace him with something...and this FA class of corners is very thin...and that’s if the guys that might be available don’t re-sign with their current teams or go for the money in FA from any of the few teams with 100m in cap space.

The reality is Veach should be trying to extend Nelson for a reasonable deal.

[SAUTO]

Dude...look what the league said about safeties over the last year...

NY and TB put their young safeties on the market.

Honey Badger got peanuts

Numerous good safeties were still FAs well into free agency and into the PS and even regular season.
You might be right.

I just think earl is going to get paid. Every year and player are different

[SAUTO]

Honey badger isn't anywhere near the same level as earl Thomas either

[srvy]

Guys I’m targeting in FA...if their respective position guy in KC is allowed to walk.

Landon Collins
Earl Thomas
Honey Badger
Lamarcus Joyner
Shane Rey/Shaq Barrett
Kareem Jackson
Ronald Darby
Demarcus Lawrence

Why Shane Rey I feel he has been a major disappointment in Denver.

[O.city]

I'd rather have Mathieu than Thomas, even with Thomas being a better player. Age and everything just isn't worth it.

I'd attack the secondary in the draft

[BossChief]

Why Shane Rey I feel he has been a major disappointment in Denver.

Because he would probably come to KC on a very cheap contract and still has a high upside.

[SAUTO]

Why Shane Rey I feel he has been a major disappointment in Denver.

Buy low and how it goes better than the contract

[SAUTO]

I'd rather have Mathieu than Thomas, even with Thomas being a better player. Age and everything just isn't worth it.

I'd attack the secondary in the draft

I agree and I hate mathieu

[BossChief]

I'd rather have Mathieu than Thomas, even with Thomas being a better player. Age and everything just isn't worth it.

I'd attack the secondary in the draft

If we could come out of FA with Honey Badger/Earl Thomas along with Ronald Darby, we could really attack the draft. Especially if Berry returns to form.

Which I’m told he will be damn close to it. Supposedly he hasn’t lost any speed and still runs the same speed on the treadmill as before the Achilles injury.

[O.city]

I mean, I'd take Earl, but his age is just meh.

A guy like Ray would be a decent buy low option. That's where you need to start hitting some big hits.

[O.city]

If we could come out of FA with Honey Badger/Earl Thomas along with Ronald Darby, we could really attack the draft. Especially if Berry returns to form.

Which I’m told he will be damn close to it. Supposedly he hasn’t lost any speed and still runs the same speed on the treadmill as before the Achilles injury.

I don't really get the Darby love. He's always been just a guy to me.

I'd draft a couple corners early and keep that money in house.

[oldman]

2019 FAs (48m cap space after rollover)

Conley
Nelson
Morse
Bailey
Ford
Sherman
Harris

2020 FAs (65m in cap space)

Hill
Robinson
Jones
Williams
Fuller
Ragland
Murray

In the 2019 group I'd probably keep Nelson because there isn't much CB talent out there, Sherman for reasonable bucks, Bailey for the same cash, and franchise Ford. The rest can walk, we have their replacements.
The 2020 group is a little tougher. Hill and Jones are keepers. Williams and Fuller for the right money. I'd stick with DRob, but Ragland and Murray can go.

[pugsnotdrugs19]

Signing big names in FA is fun and all but I’m telling you, I wouldn’t expect it. Veach knows that the big money needs to be given to guys already on the roster.

Even Dee Ford has to be franchised at this point over signing any FA like Thomas or Darby.

[BossChief]

Signing big names in FA is fun and all but I’m telling you, I wouldn’t expect it. Veach knows that the big money needs to be given to guys already on the roster.

Even Dee Ford has to be franchised at this point over signing any FA like Thomas or Darby.

We have 48m in cap space and a team that players will want to come to for lots of reasons.

We can keep all of those guys and still have 15m in cap space to go get a couple guys that can help us get over the hump while Pats still on his rookie deal.

[BossChief]

I don't really get the Darby love. He's always been just a guy to me.

I'd draft a couple corners early and keep that money in house.

Dude. Look at next years roster.

If we don’t retain Nelson, we have Fuller and nobody else. I’m not a fan of going into next year with 2-3 rookie corners playing significant time.

Are you?

[srvy]

Because he would probably come to KC on a very cheap contract and still has a high upside.

Nah I am always leary guys that underperform knowing a payday is on the horizon.

[SAUTO]

Nah I am always leary guys that underperform knowing a payday is on the horizon.

He's behind the eight ball there though

[kccrow]

2019 FAs (48m cap space after rollover)

Conley
Nelson
Morse
Bailey
Ford
Sherman
Harris

2020 FAs (65m in cap space)

Hill
Robinson
Jones
Williams
Fuller
Ragland
Murray

Woah. That’s bad. Some of those guys can get bent or play for peanuts. Some of those are going to HURT.

Yep... I think you're looking somewhere in the 4/60-5/75 range for a Jones extension, a 5/90 with Hill, and 5/85 with Ford.

Personally, I'd extend Jones and Hill this offseason to put some of the bonus money onto their rookie deals and lower the caps a tad in the extension years. I'd franchise Ford and try to trade him, and if that doesn't work out then let him walk after 2019. I'd sign Ford if it weren't for Houston's huge contract at the same position but I don't think a team can eat two of them simultaneously with all the other contracts coming due.

[pugsnotdrugs19]

Yep... I think you're looking somewhere in the 4/60-5/75 range for a Jones extension, a 5/90 with Hill, and 5/85 with Ford.

Personally, I'd extend Jones and Hill this offseason to put some of the bonus money onto their rookie deals and lower the caps a tad in the extension years. I'd franchise Ford and try to trade him, and if that doesn't work out then let him walk after 2019. I'd sign Ford if it weren't for Houston's huge contract at the same position but I don't think a team can eat two of them simultaneously with all the other contracts coming due.

Well the thing is that the rest of this season is going to have a huge impact on all of this.

If this team does pull it off and wins a Super Bowl, all of these guys are going to expect that much more. If Jones is playing like he is right now all the way through the playoffs, he’s going to be able to ask for $100M when all is said and done. Same with Hill.

[kccrow]

I'd rather have Mathieu than Thomas, even with Thomas being a better player. Age and everything just isn't worth it.

I'd attack the secondary in the draft

Personally, I'd go after Tre Boston. He's been just as productive as either of them and he's only 26 (like Mathieu) and on a 1-year $2.5 million deal with Arizona. He'll look to get out of there and, after the safety market in 2018 dipped, he may just sign on for a relatively friendly deal if it's long-term.

[kccrow]

Well the thing is that the rest of this season is going to have a huge impact on all of this.

If this team does pull it off and wins a Super Bowl, all of these guys are going to expect that much more. If Jones is playing like he is right now all the way through the playoffs, he’s going to be able to ask for $100M when all is said and done. Same with Hill.

Jones is playing well but he isn't anywhere near the level of Aaron Donald nor JJ Watt (esp when he got his), so I can't fathom any way he touches $100 m at this point. Hill though, he could.

[pugsnotdrugs19]

Jones is playing well but he isn't anywhere near the level of Aaron Donald nor JJ Watt (esp when he got his), so I can't fathom any way he touches $100 m at this point. Hill though, he could.

Watt’s contract is archaic at this point in NFL terms. Donald and Mack got what, $135-$140M?

Jones can absolutely make the argument that he’s worth 100 if he stays on this tear and this team wins a title.

[38yrsfan]

Welcome to the real world. Want to actually be serious? Try applying your angst to the world of the working.

[kccrow]

Watt’s contract is archaic at this point in NFL terms. Donald and Mack got what, $135-$140M?

Jones can absolutely make the argument that he’s worth 100 if he stays on this tear and this team wins a title.

Tear? He's got sacks but he isn't in those guy's realm of play. He doesn't disrupt the LOS every single play like those guys do. He's not the one guy you absolutely can't miss a snap on because he'll eat your lunch. You watched Aaron Donald play the other night. How many plays did the O-line get where they didn't need to keep their heads on a swivel and account for him because he was wreaking havoc? Jones runs way too hot and cold. He's more like Jurrell Casey than anywhere near Donald or Mack.

[pugsnotdrugs19]

Tear? He's got sacks but he isn't in those guy's realm of play. He doesn't disrupt the LOS every single play like those guys do. He's not the one guy you absolutely can't miss a snap on because he'll eat your lunch. You watched Aaron Donald play the other night. How many plays did the O-line get where they didn't need to keep their heads on a swivel and account for him because he was wreaking havoc? Jones runs way too hot and cold. He's more like Jurrell Casey than anywhere near Donald or Mack.

Idk about that man. He was absolutely throttling Roger Saffold’s ass time and time again Monday night, as well as the center a few times. They couldn’t block him with one guy and if the refs had called holding, he would have drawn 2 or 3 of those easily that were obvious.

[prhom]

Totally agree with the OP. QB is obviously a position where if you truly have a great one, you pay them whatever. For all intents and purposes, you can’t win a SB without a really good one, and it helps even more to have a great one. Mahomes is clearly headed towards greatness so he will be the top paid QB and that’s fine. He may also help us save some money elsewhere because FAs will want to come play with him just for the chance at doing great things. We saw it with Manning and the Broncos and Brady with the Pats. Those teams don’t hand out many top contracts, but got reasonable deals for some really good players because of who plays QB.

As for other positions, I think it comes down to how they impact other players on the team. The concept being that guys who allow you to get by with leaser talent elsewhere are more valuable and can be paid more because you save elsewhere. Hill is a good example. His speed and quickness draws a lot of attention away from other positions. When used as a decoy, he is very effective at affecting the defense. He is also able to produce even after teams started to realize his ability and game plan for it.

Affecting the opposing teams’ plans AND producing is a good indicator that a player is worth the money. Age and injury history should factor in and also trade value. If a player can be traded for multiple first or second rounders, then it really makes it harder to justify, in my opinion.

The Khalil Mack trade is one that I personally agreed with for the Raiders. I just didn’t see the kind of player that has the characteristics above. I think that in the end we will say that the Raiders will, or could, have gotten more talent with the picks than keeping Mack. They might screw up the picks, but I think good tenant will be available.

There is also the question of availability when handing out top contracts. How many games played do you get for your salary cap dollar? You are investing a lot of money in one player and when that one player is injured, 100% of that money is injured. If you have two players splitting that money and one gets hurt, only 50% is injured. You still have the other 50% working for you. If injury probability is the same risk for all players, the probability that one player will be injured is higher than the probability that two other players will both be injured at the same time. It puts the entire team at risk when huge amounts of cap space are tied up with a few star players. When those guys go out, not only are they replaced with less than average guys, but the previously average guys around them play worse than usual because they try to compensate but can’t and make mistakes as a result.

[jaa1025]

Chris Jones is a prime example of what I’m talking about. He’s had a lot of games where he disappears. I get where we are all coming from given our luck with DL but I don’t see the value there. I say that as he has a pretty ridiculous Sack streak on so I’m open to the idea that I may be full of shit.

But if he wants Donald money he needs to get it elsewhere IMO.

Chris Jones has been healthy with no signs of any deteriorating type of injury history (Poe w/ Back, Dee Ford w/ 2 back surgeries, Berry Cancer, Houston with multiple injuries before signing). He's the type of player you sign to the second contract and do it before their contract year so they aren't stuck like they were with Berry and Houston. This year, he hasn't disappeared at all and I think that has everything to do with his lower weight. Last year, he had some off games though.

He's every bit as good as Joey Bosa, Fletcher Cox, JJ Watt (this year). He's not on Donald's tier but no one is.

[Bump]

I know that nobody is going to want to pay another player, with the exception of Mahomes of course, after Houston and Berry. But it's going to happen someday.

[007]

Possibly, and if the discrepancy is that large then maybe they do wait until his 6th year to extend.

I won’t blame Patrick if he doesn’t but personally, I wouldn’t be surprised if he ends up being like Brady and taking discounts. He just seems to care about winning and being great that badly that it wouldn’t shock me totally. After the 2nd contract at least.

Who is his agent? Serious question.

[SAUTO]

Steinberg I think

[Buckweath]

Not going to go through all the 10 pages but Fuller is also a must keep IMO.

[pugsnotdrugs19]

Go ahead and take one minute out of your time watch Chris Jones absolutely destroying linemen, QBs, and RBs in the last month or two. This guy is becoming a dominant player.

https://twitter.com/realmnchiefsfan/status/1065758560175489024?s=21

[RunKC]

Go ahead and take one minute out of your time watch Chris Jones absolutely destroying linemen, QBs, and RBs in the last month or two. This guy is becoming a dominant player.

https://twitter.com/realmnchiefsfan/status/1065758560175489024?s=21

Chris Jones is one of the most valuable assets in the league. Only Aaron Donald and JJ Watt are better rushers from the interior (Watt plays that role frequently).

I would offer him an $80 million contract. After the 2 listed above making $100+ million, guys like Tuitt and Casey make $60 million. Maybe something a little higher than Danielle Hunter’s contract.

I think the Chiefs need to follow this structure:

<blockquote class="twitter-tweet"><p lang="en" dir="ltr">Checklist for building a roster in today&#39;s NFL <br>Role/Number of players<br>QB (1)<br>Pass rusher (2)<br>Off Playmaker (3)<br>Def Playmaker (3)<br>Quality OL (3)<br><br>That&#39;s where I&#39;d start. Once you fill those 12 spots, you&#39;ll have an outstanding foundation. <br><br>We&#39;ll discuss on today&#39;s MTS Podcast</p>&mdash; Daniel Jeremiah (@MoveTheSticks) <a href="https://twitter.com/MoveTheSticks/status/1064907627610533889?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">November 20, 2018</a></blockquote> <script async src="https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js" charset="utf-8"></script>

This is going to be a very good defensive class. I’d go for a good pass rusher and DB that is a ball hawk. Then the Peters pick can be used for an offensive weapon or OL if need be.

[kccrow]

Chris Jones is one of the most valuable assets in the league. Only Aaron Donald and JJ Watt are better rushers from the interior (Watt plays that role frequently).

I would offer him an $80 million contract. After the 2 listed above making $100+ million, guys like Tuitt and Casey make $60 million. Maybe something a little higher than Danielle Hunter’s contract.

I think the Chiefs need to follow this structure:

<blockquote class="twitter-tweet"><p lang="en" dir="ltr">Checklist for building a roster in today&#39;s NFL <br>Role/Number of players<br>QB (1)<br>Pass rusher (2)<br>Off Playmaker (3)<br>Def Playmaker (3)<br>Quality OL (3)<br><br>That&#39;s where I&#39;d start. Once you fill those 12 spots, you&#39;ll have an outstanding foundation. <br><br>We&#39;ll discuss on today&#39;s MTS Podcast</p>&mdash; Daniel Jeremiah (@MoveTheSticks) <a href="https://twitter.com/MoveTheSticks/status/1064907627610533889?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">November 20, 2018</a></blockquote> <script async src="https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js" charset="utf-8"></script>

This is going to be a very good defensive class. I’d go for a good pass rusher and DB that is a ball hawk. Then the Peters pick can be used for an offensive weapon or OL if need be.

Only Donald and Watt? I don't know about that. Gino Atkins, Calais Campbell, and Cameron Heyward are right there too. There are others that haven't had the sack totals of late but anyhow, Jones has definitely grown into that class of guys. I just did my new mock extending him at 5/85 so I do agree he's in that upper echelon and the Chiefs need to extend him this offseason.

Edit: As for Jeremiah's list, that's a fairly vague listing. I think you need to have 1 good interior rusher and 1 good edge rusher if that's what he's classifying as "pass rushers." I don't get hung up there, but 3 defensive playmakers is asking for quite a bit. If you can get a playmaker at safety, a playmaker at corner, and a good 3-down linebacker, then I'd agree with what he says there. I think you need a guy at every level of the defense so that you can dictate a little where teams will have to go. Offensively, I doubt you're going to get a team with 3 playmakers that often. That pretty much means you need KC's offense. A great WR, a great TE, and a great RB to go with a great QB isn't going to happen for most teams. You try to get there, but it's tough to get all 4 at the same time. 3 good O-line doesn't really specify much. Can you have 2 shitty tackles and 3 stud interior lineman? Don't know if that'll work. You almost have to have a good tackle, a good guard, and a good center if you want to mask deficiencies.

[WhiteWhale]

I think it's a pretty shallow to evaluate it this way. Every situation is pretty unique and winning is about more than one guy. Unless that guy is a QB. They can produce a lot of extra wins. Teams also have more than enough cap space to pay more than ONE guy.

Next in line is quality pass rushers (from any position). The chandler jones example is atrocious. Nobody is winning with an offense producing like that. Sorry.

Every situation is unique though. I'm dumping a truck load of bills on Tyreek's back door to keep him paired with Mahomes.

[WhiteWhale]

Only Donald and Watt? I don't know about that. Gino Atkins, Calais Campbell, and Cameron Heyward are right there too. There are others that haven't had the sack totals of late but anyhow, Jones has definitely grown into that class of guys. I just did my new mock extending him at 5/85 so I do agree he's in that upper echelon and the Chiefs need to extend him this offseason.

Edit: As for Jeremiah's list, that's a fairly vague listing. I think you need to have 1 good interior rusher and 1 good edge rusher if that's what he's classifying as "pass rushers." I don't get hung up there, but 3 defensive playmakers is asking for quite a bit. If you can get a playmaker at safety, a playmaker at corner, and a good 3-down linebacker, then I'd agree with what he says there. I think you need a guy at every level of the defense so that you can dictate a little where teams will have to go. Offensively, I doubt you're going to get a team with 3 playmakers that often. That pretty much means you need KC's offense. A great WR, a great TE, and a great RB to go with a great QB isn't going to happen for most teams. You try to get there, but it's tough to get all 4 at the same time. 3 good O-line doesn't really specify much. Can you have 2 shitty tackles and 3 stud interior lineman? Don't know if that'll work. You almost have to have a good tackle, a good guard, and a good center if you want to mask deficiencies.

Why does Campbell always get called a DT when he's always listed at LDE?

[kccrow]

Why does Campbell always get called a DT when he's always listed at LDE?

Because the Jags run a 4-3 Under just like Seattle and it's essentially the same thing as a 3-4. He plays more inside at 5-tech and 3-tech more so than a traditional 4-3 end would. He also played most of his career as a DE in a 3-4 in Arizona, same as Jones. He's talking in terms of interior rushers and not so much edge guys. Campbell doesn't play out in a 7 or wide 9.

[RunKC]

Go ahead and take one minute out of your time watch Chris Jones absolutely destroying linemen, QBs, and RBs in the last month or two. This guy is becoming a dominant player.

https://twitter.com/realmnchiefsfan/status/1065758560175489024?s=21

My God look at Breeland Speaks at 27 seconds. That guy is strong as hell LMAO

[Chiefshrink]

It’s going to be really sad if/when we have to let Kareem walk.

It won't be as bad as you think. We will have gotten his best years from him. And by then we will have already gotten his replacement waiting in the wings.

[Buehler445]

Bump for the offseason.