Cardinals ****The Official 2019 STL Cardinals Thread**** [Archive]

BigRedChief

01-10-2019, 03:23 AM

Cardinals announce 25-man Opening Day roster for the 2019 season.
The Cardinals today announced their 25-man Opening Day roster that includes four first-time Cardinals and 13 players that were developed within their organization.

PITCHERS (12): 60 – John Brebbia-RHP, 22 – Jack Flaherty-RHP, 53 – John Gant- RHP, 49 – Jordan Hicks-RHP, 43 – Dakota Hudson- RHP, 55 – Dominic Leone-RHP, 59 – Mike Mayers- RHP, 21 – Andrew Miller-LHP, 39 – Miles Mikolas-RHP, 29 – Alex Reyes, RHP, 52 – Michael Wacha-RHP, 50 – Adam Wainwright- RHP;

CATCHERS (2): 4 -Yadier Molina, 32 – Matt Wieters;

INFIELDERS (6): 13 - Matt Carpenter, 12 – Paul DeJong, 46 – Paul Goldschmidt, 34 – Yario Muñoz, 33 – Drew Robinson, 16 – Kolten Wong;

OUTFIELDERS (5): 46 – Harrison Bader, 25 - Dexter Fowler, 38 – José Martínez, 41 – Tyler O'Neill, 23 – Marcell Ozuna;

DISABLED LIST (5): 27 - Brett Cecil (10-day, left hand Carpal Tunnel syndrome), 44 – Luke Gregerson (10-day, right shoulder impingement), 18 – Carlos Martínez (right shoulder cuff strain), 3 - Jedd Gyorko (10-day, right calf strain), 67 - Justin Williams (10-day, right hand 2nd metacarpal fracture).

2019 Opening Day Line up
Starting lineup
Matt Carpenter 3B
Paul Goldschmidt 1B
Paul DeJong SS
Ozuna LF
Yadier Molina C
Dexter Fowler RF
Kolten Wong 2B
Harrison Bader CF

Won the Central Division. Won the NLDS.

NLDS Playoff roster
Pitchers (12): Miles Mikolas, Jack Flaherty, Adam Wainwright, Dakota Hudson, Genesis Cabrera, Tyler Webb, Andrew Miller, John Brebbia, Daniel Ponce de Leon, Ryan Helsley, Giovanny Gallegos, Carlos Martinez.

Catchers (2): Yadier Molina, Matt Wieters.

Infielders (6): Paul Goldschmidt, Kolten Wong, Paul DeJong, Matt Carpenter, Tommy Edman, Yairo Munoz.

Outfielders (5): Marcell Ozuna, Harrison Bader, Dexter Fowler, Jose Martinez, Randy Arozarena.

NLDS Playoff Game 1 starting lineup

1. Dexter Fowler, CF

2. Tommy Edman, 3B

3. Paul Goldschmidt, 1B

4. Marcell Ozuna, LF

5. Yadier Molina, C

6. Paul DeJong, SS

7. Kolten Wong, 2B

8. Harrison Bader, CF

9. Miles Mikolas, P
NLCS Game One Starting lineup
1. Dexter Fowler, CF

2. Kolten Wong, 2B

3. Paul Goldschmidt, 1B

4. Marcell Ozuna, LF

5. Yadier Molina, C

6. Matt Carpenter 3B

7.Tommy Edmond RF

8. Paul DeJong, SS

9. Miles Mikolas P

Prison Bitch

01-10-2019, 07:22 AM

First. As it should be

Dartgod

01-10-2019, 07:35 AM

Did they drop the "s" from their name like Stanford did?

BigRedChief

01-10-2019, 10:23 AM

Did they drop the "s" from their name like Stanford did?No, you can see in the OP the title is "Cardinals", not "Cardinal". Can you please add the "s" good sir?

Jewish Rabbi

01-10-2019, 11:55 AM

Where are you getting that projected rotation from? No way Wainwright isn’t in the rotation until he gets hurt again.

BigRedChief

01-10-2019, 01:31 PM

Where are you getting that projected rotation from? No way Wainwright isn’t in the rotation until he gets hurt again.I think it was a Goold STL Today column. Just googled it. Didn't vet or give my opinion etc. Just a placeholder.

Jewish Rabbi

01-10-2019, 03:06 PM

I think it was a Goold STL Today column. Just googled it. Didn't vet or give my opinion etc. Just a placeholder.

Gotcha. We all know Wacha will get hurt at some point this year too. Wonder if they’re planning on Reyes as a bullpen arm? Hudson? Gant? Lots of starting options this year.

BigRedChief

01-10-2019, 03:42 PM

Gotcha. We all know Wacha will get hurt at some point this year too. Wonder if they’re planning on Reyes as a bullpen arm? Hudson? Gant? Lots of starting options this year.Hudson seems like a better fit as a starter.

So does Reyes even though he's going to have limited innings, Listen to one podcast that went over this........the theory is that if you put Reyes in the bullpen, you limit his innings and give some help to the team where its badly needed. Their downside was injury. Does he get warmed up properly? Will he be honest with some tweaks before they become time missing injuries? He will come out throwing hard, does that make him more susceptible to injury.

The best way Reyes could help this team this year is get up to speed as a starter by the playoffs. Have the innings left to pitch 3-4 times. If that happens and he is performing like he has in the past........ Martinez/Flaherty/Mikolas/Reyes will be as good a starting staff as any team in the playoffs.

BigRedChief

01-30-2019, 07:38 AM

Man do we need this guy to live up to his potential

Cardinals president of baseball operations John Mozeliak recently called this upcoming season “huge” for Reyes. It’s easy to see why. The range of outcomes is virtually limitless for him in 2019. He could never pitch again. He could be one of the most dominant pitchers in the game. Neither is an overstatement.

“There’s reason for hope. When you boil it down, he just hasn’t been healthy for two years,” Mozeliak said. “The reason we’re still so excited is, when he’s healthy, he has an electric arm.”

The lean muscle Reyes has added to his square 6-foot-4 frame is there, but the fat he shed is more obvious. It shows most easily in his face, which can be puffy with baby fat when he’s not in workout mode.

When Reyes first showed up at Next Level Fitness in November, he was a doughy 248 pounds. With spring training approaching, he’s down to 233 even after adding several pounds of muscle.

This winter’s workouts centered on strengthening and training the specific arm and torso muscles that could bear the most strain when he starts pitching again. He has thrown a handful of bullpen sessions already. His exercise physiologist, Hugo Botero, manipulates his arm and shoulder in various postures, probing for weakness. The idea is to strengthen both the muscles and the connective tissues, which are often the breaking points for pitchers. The goal is to maintain strength and control at each awkward stage of the throwing motion.

“If we can train and sustain in most of the positions players get hurt in, if he ever gets to those positions and he’s under fatigue, his shoulder knows exactly what to do,” Botero said. “We used to think we wanted to avoid those positions.”

Reyes said he feels as strong as he has at any time in his life, but he admits he said similar things a year ago. Maybe this will be the season he stays healthy and shows the world what his powerful right arm can do.

<blockquote class="twitter-tweet"><p lang="en" dir="ltr">For those wondering about the strength and health of <a href="https://twitter.com/hashtag/STLCards?src=hash&ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">#STLCards</a> pitcher Alex Reyes’s right shoulder, just listen for the thwack in this video: <a href="https://t.co/z70w144XZq">pic.twitter.com/z70w144XZq</a></p>— Mark Saxon (@markasaxon) <a href="https://twitter.com/markasaxon/status/1088232505038303232?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">January 24, 2019</a></blockquote> <script async src="https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js" charset="utf-8"></script>

O.city

01-30-2019, 08:58 AM

Should have traded him for a bat when they had the chance IMO

O.city

01-30-2019, 10:08 AM

What the hell is gonna happen with Harper and Machado?

I mean, I get the Cards don't want to sign either to a huge long term deal, but as this lingers on at some point the value make it worth it right?

Matrix

01-30-2019, 10:30 AM

88-74

'Hamas' Jenkins

01-30-2019, 12:07 PM

What the hell is gonna happen with Harper and Machado?

I mean, I get the Cards don't want to sign either to a huge long term deal, but as this lingers on at some point the value make it worth it right?

Owners are now at the point of open collusion on free agents, which is going to lead to a work stoppage in a few years.

The irony is Harper is now someone you're likely to get surplus value on in FA precisely because everyone else is purposefully colluding to remove themselves from the market.

O.city

01-30-2019, 12:19 PM

Owners are now at the point of open collusion on free agents, which is going to lead to a work stoppage in a few years.

The irony is Harper is now someone you're likely to get surplus value on in FA precisely because everyone else is purposefully colluding to remove themselves from the market.

How are they colluding?

I mean, we've seen evidence that these huge long term deals don't really ever work out that well.

DJ's left nut

01-30-2019, 12:23 PM

Man do we need this guy to live up to his potential

It doesn't matter how healthy he gets. What matters is how healthy he stays. I've said in every damn one of these threads for 3 years that if the kid keeps !@#$ing scalpula loading, he's going to keep breaking down. He simply cannot stay healthy doing that.

So just watch his delivery and if he's late off still with his arm trailing, you'll know that we're looking at another injury.

But again - good thinking not activating and optioning the kid for rehab so we could save a year of service time there, Moe. Fantastic work.

It blows my mind how bad he is about basic service time and options shit.

Prison Bitch

01-30-2019, 12:27 PM

Owners are now at the point of open collusion on free agents, which is going to lead to a work stoppage in a few years.

The irony is Harper is now someone you're likely to get surplus value on in FA precisely because everyone else is purposefully colluding to remove themselves from the market.

1. You have no evidence they’re colluding.

2. We’ve reached the point where the $$ is too big to make any mistake on. A $55M mistake on AJ Pollock, Dodgers can live with. But $300M on Harper? Whole diff ballgame.

3. we have no clue what offers they’re holding. The Red Sux and JD Martinez worked 3 months on their deal last winter. It was going to happen. I suspect the Phils or Mets etc are waiting out Harper.

VAChief

01-30-2019, 12:28 PM

88-74

Probably not too far off. I could see us getting into the low 90's for wins but also 78-80. Baseball has so many variables year to year. We have a lot of ifs...Will Goldy be himself in a new lineup. Will Ozuna's power numbers rebound as well as a passable left field arm? How does Bader progress offensively? What do we get out of RF both offensively and defensively? Does Mikolas follow up with another solid year both productively and as an innings eater? Can Carlos return to form and is he healthy (starter velocity was dipping)? Will Flaherty show progress, flatten or regress? What does Wacha give you? How much does A. Reyes contribute and where? Can Hicks progress with better fb command and with his off speed stuff? Can he close? Can Andrew Miller handle another full season of work after being run practically into the ground? Is this the year you see significant regression from Carpenter and/or Molina? Can DeJong up his OB numbers and cut down on his SO's? Can Molina come back healthy and contribute daily with solid D and stay within himself offensively?

You hit positively on a lot of those if's and you can be a division contender...likely? No, but possible. Fail on most of those and you can just as easily regress and fourth might be where you land.

DJ's left nut

01-30-2019, 12:35 PM

1. You have no evidence they’re colluding.

2. We’ve reached the point where the $$ is too big to make any mistake on. A $55M mistake on AJ Pollock, Dodgers can live with. But $300M on Harper? Whole diff ballgame.

3. we have no clue what offers they’re holding. The Red Sux and JD Martinez worked 3 months on their deal last winter. It was going to happen. I suspect the Phils or Mets etc are waiting out Harper.

And while you are correct that we don't know what offers either of them have had, I suspect that the major sticking point is still going to be over opt-outs.

The agents for these mega clients want absolutely no risk in their deals and want ALL the risk on the signing teams. If the player plays to his ability for 3 years, he's going to want to opt out and test the market under the new CBA. If he goes Full Heyward and just sucks, well shit happens team - you're stuck with him for a decade.

Everyone wants to make this about money when in all reality it's almost certainly falling apart due to exposure. Notice how quickly the market has slowed down since the opt-outs have become industry standard. People point to the draft pick compensation as the reason but that's ridiculous - draft pick compensation is LESS burdensome than it was under the previous Type A and Type B FA compensation rules, especially for higher end players. And it's not a raw dollars thing because teams aren't risking proportionally more even with the raw dollars being higher (revenues have increased as well).

The problem is that there is literally no way for them to truly come out ahead with the rise of opt-outs. Those are what is killing these deals and those are what teams are now fighting against. If the mega-agents would actually say "Sure, we'll take $300/10 with no opt-outs..." I'm betting these guys would get signed in a heartbeat. But they don't want to risk the possibility of the new CBA exploding the market and their clients being locked in long-term.

And I'd imagine dozens of teams would gladly give a high AAV, 3 year deal to get to the next CBA as well but again - agents won't risk their guy getting hurt.

They want it both coming and going and they cry collusion when owners are unwilling to just bend over and take it. It's ridiculous.

'Hamas' Jenkins

01-30-2019, 01:30 PM

A

The problem is that there is literally no way for them to truly come out ahead with the rise of opt-outs. Those are what is killing these deals and those are what teams are now fighting against. If the mega-agents would actually say "Sure, we'll take $300/10 with no opt-outs..." I'm betting these guys would get signed in a heartbeat. But they don't want to risk the possibility of the new CBA exploding the market and their clients being locked in long-term.
.

Sure there is. If someone like Harper tears it up for three years and then opts out you get his three best years and let someone else pay for his likely decline phase. Opt-outs are only a risk if you assume that the guy is going to underperform the contract and/or get hurt.

And if you're a team like the Dodgers that is always on the brink of a World Series, the risk of signing someone like Harper is more than obviated by the upside. After all, you're the guy that has repeatedly said, "flags fly forever" on here. For as much as you've chastised Mozeliak for being risk averse, I would think that you'd realize that fear of these long term deals is an overly conservative reaction that actually creates a market inefficiency in favor of signing these guys, because executives look at it only through the prism of what can go wrong.

If you sign Harper to 10/300 with opt-outs after years 3 and 6, and he ends up giving you 12+ WAR total over the first three years and opts out, you win.

BigRedChief

01-30-2019, 01:47 PM

It doesn't matter how healthy he gets. What matters is how healthy he stays. I've said in every damn one of these threads for 3 years that if the kid keeps !@#$ing scalpula loading, he's going to keep breaking down. He simply cannot stay healthy doing that.

So just watch his delivery and if he's late off still with his arm trailing, you'll know that we're looking at another injury.

But again - good thinking not activating and optioning the kid for rehab so we could save a year of service time there, Moe. Fantastic work.

It blows my mind how bad he is about basic service time and options shit.
If this is so obvious why haven’t they changed his mechanics? They have every kind of trainer and consultant working with him. Probably spending a ton of money. Again, if it’s the core issue, why bother with anything else?

DJ's left nut

01-30-2019, 02:15 PM

Sure there is. If someone like Harper tears it up for three years and then opts out you get his three best years and let someone else pay for his likely decline phase. Opt-outs are only a risk if you assume that the guy is going to underperform the contract and/or get hurt.

And if you're a team like the Dodgers that is always on the brink of a World Series, the risk of signing someone like Harper is more than obviated by the upside. After all, you're the guy that has repeatedly said, "flags fly forever" on here. For as much as you've chastised Mozeliak for being risk averse, I would think that you'd realize that fear of these long term deals is an overly conservative reaction that actually creates a market inefficiency in favor of signing these guys, because executives look at it only through the prism of what can go wrong.

If you sign Harper to 10/300 with opt-outs after years 3 and 6, and he ends up giving you 12+ WAR total over the first three years and opts out, you win.

I think Mozeliak is being a complete coward. I've said 100 times over (I think here, but maybe just at my Cardinals board) that he needs to hang the concern over the damn opt outs and sign the guy.

But I don't think it's a rational decision. Nor do I think getting 12 wins for $90 million is anything approximating a win (the $8 million win share remains idiotic).

But I simply do not care because the Cardinals are now at a point where Harper takes them from an also-ran to a genuine contender for at least 1 season while also giving them a known throughput for what will almost certainly be 2 more after that. They can 'lose' the deal less badly than many if not most.

Getting roughly market value out of your player isn't winning a deal - it's simply not losing it. If they can get 15-18 wins out of Harper over 3 years and pay $90 million for that privilege then I'd say they've gotten their money's worth.

But if Bryce Harper would take $90 million over 3 seasons he'd have signed the day after FA opened. By all accounts if he'd have taken $30 million/season over 10 seasons without opt-outs he'd have signed by now. I don't believe teams are being unreasonable in saying "Y'know, that's a hell of a lot of risk for us to take for the upshot of getting what we paid for..."

I wish the Cardinals would do it anyway, but only because it's simply money DeWitt will be taking to his grave or spending on less impactful players. I don't think it's a 'sound' decision in a vacuum.

DJ's left nut

01-30-2019, 02:20 PM

If this is so obvious why haven’t they changed his mechanics? They have every kind of trainer and consultant working with him. Probably spending a ton of money. Again, if it’s the core issue, why bother with anything else?

Because then he's throwing 96 and ultimately you can tell the guy to stop doing that all you want but when he started doing it (and you can see on the video clips exactly when he did) he added 3-4 mph of velocity and exploded on the prospect scene.

I actually think he did some damage to his breaking stuff; really hurt the depth on his curveball in particular and seems to have gone primarily to the slider to adjust. But chicks (and prospect magazines) dig the radar gun.

I think the Cardinals have always been fairly hands-off with the mechanics on their guys going all the way back to the Duncan era. If they can't get buy-in, they're not gonna get him to change. If you asked my best guess, that would be it. But I've called it organizational negligence going back to before he broke down the first time. I wasn't quite attuned enough to the team during the Alan Benes years to really understand in real time how badly they fucked that kid up, but I feel like we're seeing it happen again with Reyes.

VAChief

01-30-2019, 02:41 PM

If this is so obvious why haven’t they changed his mechanics? They have every kind of trainer and consultant working with him. Probably spending a ton of money. Again, if it’s the core issue, why bother with anything else?

It's hard as hell to do that, especially at this level. I'm not saying it is impossible, tweaking little things much easier. Think about the years of muscle memory he has built up you have to change.

I could throw pretty hard in high school, but I short armed the ball, and when coaches in college tried to get more extension it was hard as hell to find consistency and often fell back to what was comfortable. I blew out my elbow and then my shoulder coming back trying to compensate for what blew out my elbow.

Prison Bitch

01-30-2019, 04:26 PM

Teams still don’t know how to calc the value of opt-outs. I’m guessing some dude at UChicago could create a Black-Scholes for them.

BigRedChief

01-31-2019, 08:43 PM

Triggering DJ..........from STL article

With the start of Cardinals training camp less than two weeks away, president of baseball operations John Mozeliak said he's pleased with what the club accomplished in the offseason and didn’t envision adding any free agent — even if the price tags on some of those free agents might have dropped through the winter.

“Dating back to October in this process,” Mozeliak said, “we identified what we wanted to do and we feel we’ve been able to accomplish that.”

He was referring to the trades for first baseman Paul Goldschmidt and lefthanded-hitting utility player Drew Robinson, and the free-agent signing of lefthanded reliever Andrew Miller. Mozeliak also is confident that surgically-repaired left fielder Marcell Ozuna will be ready by opening day.

“Is there another piece we could add, based on where the market is?" Mozeliak said. "Any move we would make now would sort of complicate things.

“Even if we were to break (camp) today, we’re going to have guys competing for at-bats already. And we still feel we have a lot of depth in our pitching.

“If nothing changed, we would have some tough decisions. Any additions would just make things tougher. We have competition now. In fairness, is it over-competition?”

BigRedChief

02-03-2019, 01:05 PM

Bernie’s take on the 2019 bullpen options from the Athletic

right now, the Cardinals have significant manpower in their pitching department.

Let’s review.

Right-handed relievers

Jordan Hicks
John Brebbia
Dominic Leone
Dakota Hudson
Alex Reyes
Mike Mayers
Daniel Poncedeleon
Luke Gregerson
Giovanny Gallegos
Ryan Helsley
John Gant

Relevant notes:

Gant, Hudson, Reyes and Poncedeleon could, in theory, could be in the competition for a rotation spot.

The young Reyes has the intimidating talent to become a massive bullpen weapon. But after enduring two consecutive seasons lost to injury, it’s natural to question the wisdom of deploying him as a reliever, a job that requires frequent warmups and pitching on back-to-back days. That said, his relief assignments could be planned and spaced out. Perhaps Reyes can be used in relief, in tandem, with a designated Cardinals starting pitcher.

If manager Mike Shildt goes with a traditional closer, Hicks is a strong candidate. My favorite stat of the 2018 season: Hicks led MLB with 776 fastballs clocked at 100-plus miles per hour. He ruled righty hitters, allowing a .150 average and .171 slugging percentage. And Hicks has a preposterously elevated ground-ball rate of 60.7 percent. Now he just has to find a way to convert all that heat and sink into more strikeouts; a 20.7-percent K rate is too low. And his walk rate (13.3 percent) is too high.

Hudson doesn’t throw nearly as hard as Hicks, but he also has a crazy-good ground-ball rate of 60.8 percent. Big problem: As a rookie last season, Hudson had a 16-percent strikeout rate and 15.3-percent walk rate. That must improve. Dramatically so.

Depending on need, injuries, trends in spring training and early-season performances, veteran starting pitchers Carlos Martinez and Adam Wainwright could be repurposed and turned into relievers. Martinez in particular could be transferred into a quasi-closer role; he was used in that capacity late last season.

Keep an eye on Helsley, who can throw 100-plus mph and has a wicked strikeout rate. If Helsley can avoid arm trouble and get his walk rate down, he’ll surface in the St. Louis bullpen at some point in 2019.

Brebbia is vulnerable against lefty batters but dominated righties last season with a 34.5 percent strikeout rate.

If healthy, Leone looms as an asset, given his 29-percent strikeout rate and 2.56 ERA in 70 innings for Toronto in 2017.

As a guest on my 101ESPN radio show, DeWitt touted Poncedeleon as a bullpen option because of the development of a four-seam fastball that pushed his K/9 rate up to 10.3 at Triple A Memphis last season. And in his work for the Cardinals, “Ponce” was tough on lefty batters, always a plus for a right-handed pitcher.

Sleeper candidate: Gallegos. He’s intriguing for a good and possibly valuable reason: Over his last three seasons, pitching in the Yankees’ and Cardinals’ systems, he had a 38-percent strikeout rate against lefties, with a low walk rate of just six percent.

Gant, who has a terrific changeup, has also been effective against left-handed batters, which could be helpful depending on how the rotation and bullpen take shape during the season.

The Cardinals are increasingly optimistic about Gregerson’s pitching health, but what about his diminishing velocity?
Left-handed relievers

Andrew Miller
Brett Cecil
Austin Gomber
Chasen Shreve
Tyler Webb
Genesis Cabrera
Evan Kruczynski

Relevant notes:

For Miller, it’s all about health, especially a previously problematic knee. But another factor is burnout. After mowing down hitters for a career-high 44.7-percent strikeout rate in 2016, Miller’s K rate dropped to 29.2 percent last season. That said, he still has a killer slider. That one pitch alone makes Miller a scary presence in a St. Louis bullpen that needs enforcers. And Cardinals management believes Miller will be a tremendous influence on their young pitchers.

Gomber could battle for a rotation spot. But in his rookie debut with the Cardinals last season, Gomber started 11 games and worked 18 others in relief. He wasn’t a hammer against lefty hitters, allowing a .333 OBP and .411 slugging percentage with a blah strikeout rate of 18 percent. Gomber can do better than that. But where will he land? His role matters. These are small samples, but last season Gomber had a 5.05 FIP and 1.4 strikeout/walk ratio as a reliever — and a 3.70 FIP and 2.4 K/BB ratio as a starter.

Two seasons into a four-year deal worth $30.5 million, Cecil has been a bust. But the Cardinals are encouraged because Cecil rededicated himself to conditioning this offseason and is supposedly in “The Best Shape Of His Life.” Perhaps this will help Cecil fend off lefties, who have blasted him for a .323 average, .390 OBP and .519 slugging over the past two years. If Cecil can bounce back, it will be a positive development — and a major one — for the Cardinals.

Shreve came over (with Gallegos) in a trade that sent first baseman Luke Voit to the Yankees. I thought Shreve would benefit from getting away from Yankee Stadium, but it didn’t turn out that way. Another small sample here, but his FIP (4.78) and home-run yield rate (1.8 per 9 innings) at Yankee Stadium were better than his FIP (5.48) and HR rate (2.0 per 9) at Busch Stadium. And Shreve’s walk rate was a mess at both places. Maybe pitching coach Mike Maddux can get Shreve on track in spring training.

Cabrera is a live-armed rookie who came to St. Louis in last summer’s trade that sent outfielder Tommy Pham to Tampa Bay. Cabrera has dazzled the Cardinals’ minor-league staff in his relatively short time in the system, and he’s on the fast track to St. Louis. He’s fine against righty batters, but in his last two minor-league seasons, Cabrera has limited lkefties to an OPS of .627 and .550, respectively. And his strikeout punch is gaining power; in limited duty at Memphis late last season, Cabrera struck out 43 percent of opposing lefties. He’s on the way to St. Louis, probably sooner than later.

This will probably sound familiar, but Webb walked too many hitters and didn’t strike out enough of them in spot duty for the Cardinals last season. But he had good results (and even better luck) against lefties, who had a .221 average on balls in play against him last season.

Kruczynski is making a quick climb through the system, and the Cardinals’ front office likes him a lot. He’s projected as a starter, but the Cardinals rarely hesitate to transition a young starter to a relief role. And 2019 may be too soon. Keep this in mind: Kruczynski held lefty batters to a .292 OBP and .311 slugging in the minors.

BigRedChief

02-11-2019, 12:27 AM

thread issue?

DJ's left nut

02-11-2019, 11:10 AM

DJ and Hamas, does this guy know what he is talking about?

A Look at the Cardinals' Prospects in the High Minors https://www.reddit.com/r/Cardinals/comments/apadhx/a_look_at_the_cardinals_prospects_in_the_high/?st=JRZY6XMX&sh=a912aa86https://www.reddit.com/r/Cardinals/comments/apadhx/a_look_at_the_cardinals_prospects_in_the_high/?st=JRZYERA3&sh=6866790b

Yeah, that's all pretty fair. I love Carlson. I don't know that he's an 'impact' player in the making, at least not by my definition, but he's very possibly a switch-hitting version of the good Piscotty we had for stretches. A 3-4 win player is a possibility and I expect him to explode through Memphis this year.

Maybe a few nits to pick; he's probably overvaluing Thomas and Williams a bit, though he has them in the correct tier (I just think his writeups were a little too glowing; Williams is definitely running out of runway). He mentioned Gallegos but not Elledge (probably because Gallegos is on the 40 and Elledge isn't). Krucszynski is an odd guy to pull from our pile of fungible AAAA arms but he did have a nice rise last season.

He's one of the few people willing to point out that Munoz probably isn't that good and his defensive 'versatility' is a myth.

bdj23

02-17-2019, 11:30 PM

https://youtu.be/zWmIb5kdz9s

2011 was a long time ago, but let's get hyped fellas

BigRedChief

02-18-2019, 01:01 AM

https://youtu.be/zWmIb5kdz9s

2011 was a long time ago, but let's get hyped fellasSt.Louis Cardinals 2019 Hype Video (2018 regular season highlights)
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=3OV_SMh6P2o&feature=share

ChiefsCountry

02-19-2019, 11:45 AM

Machado to Padres
http://www.espn.com/mlb/story/_/id/26031051/manny-machado-san-diego-padres-reach-deal

BigRedChief

02-19-2019, 11:47 AM

Machado to Padres
http://www.espn.com/mlb/story/_/id/26031051/manny-machado-san-diego-padres-reach-dealPadres? Just went for the money huh Manny?

DJ's left nut

02-19-2019, 12:01 PM

Machado to Padres
http://www.espn.com/mlb/story/_/id/26031051/manny-machado-san-diego-padres-reach-deal

Fuuuuuuuuuuck

[/Machadodynastyleagueowner]

I mean lord, what a kick in the dick his fantasy value just took. Dude goes from an absolute launching pad in Camden to a graveyard in Petco. It's slightly worse for lefties, IIRC, but the lineup around him is going to remain balls for the foreseeable future (Tatis ain't Vlad Jr even when he finally arrives) and the marine layer is murder.

What a strange decision for a guy who has a genuine HoF shot. This will cripple his numbers, IMO. Probably a solid 15% off across the board on his counting stats.

O.city

02-19-2019, 12:27 PM

Fuuuuuuuuuuck

[/Machadodynastyleagueowner]

I mean lord, what a kick in the dick his fantasy value just took. Dude goes from an absolute launching pad in Camden to a graveyard in Petco. It's slightly worse for lefties, IIRC, but the lineup around him is going to remain balls for the foreseeable future (Tatis ain't Vlad Jr even when he finally arrives) and the marine layer is murder.

What a strange decision for a guy who has a genuine HoF shot. This will cripple his numbers, IMO. Probably a solid 15% off across the board on his counting stats.

"Hey DJ, here's 300 million dollars to go to this law firm that's not going to get you recognized in the Columbia area very well"

DJ's left nut

02-19-2019, 12:31 PM

"Hey DJ, here's 300 million dollars to go to this law firm that's not going to get you recognized in the Columbia area very well"

If I were getting offered $250 million to go to a law firm in DC that lined me up for a spot on the Supreme Court some day I'd probably respectfully decline.

There have been studies done on the financial value of being a hall of famer and they're pretty significant.

O.city

02-19-2019, 12:35 PM

If I were getting offered $250 million to go to a law firm in DC that lined me up for a spot on the Supreme Court some day I'd probably respectfully decline.

There have been studies done on the financial value of being a hall of famer and they're pretty significant.

Where does that financial value come from? Seems like it would be more or less a probability where this deal is a certainty in terms of value.

Someone offers me 300 million to go be a molar mechanic anywhere within 1000 miles of where I currently leave, I wouldn't hesitate.

DJ's left nut

02-19-2019, 12:45 PM

Where does that financial value come from? Seems like it would be more or less a probability where this deal is a certainty in terms of value.

Someone offers me 300 million to go be a molar mechanic anywhere within 1000 miles of where I currently leave, I wouldn't hesitate.

I don't recall; it's been awhile.

And yes, if your choices are $300 million or zero, you hang the HoF and take the $300 million. But if you're getting offered several different opportunities, some of which are in the same financial ballpark but also allow you to set yourself up nicely for decades to come (and gain you some degree of historical significance), that calculus alters a great deal. Especially when you've already made $40 million.

I never fault guys for taking the best offer, but I do think some of them make decisions they'll regret a great deal as time goes on. Ask Albert Pujols if he's still happy with the decision he made - if he were being honest, I suspect he'd say no.

O.city

02-19-2019, 12:56 PM

I don't recall; it's been awhile.

And yes, if your choices are $300 million or zero, you hang the HoF and take the $300 million. But if you're getting offered several different opportunities, some of which are in the same financial ballpark but also allow you to set yourself up nicely for decades to come (and gain you some degree of historical significance), that calculus alters a great deal. Especially when you've already made $40 million.

I never fault guys for taking the best offer, but I do think some of them make decisions they'll regret a great deal as time goes on. Ask Albert Pujols if he's still happy with the decision he made - if he were being honest, I suspect he'd say no.

Yeah, I would guess he figured that pretty quickly but fuck him.

DJ's left nut

02-19-2019, 12:58 PM

Yeah, I would guess he figured that pretty quickly but fuck him.

Agreed.

O.city

02-19-2019, 01:00 PM

Agreed.

In the end, for the Cards it worked out better that he left I'd imagine, but from a nostalgic standpoint I wanted that dude to be Stan the Man 2.0.

DJ's left nut

02-19-2019, 01:05 PM

Oh yeah, and an additional thing to think about is that he's getting taxed on where he plays his games. Congrats to Manny for that massive chunk of California state income tax he'll be paying...

The vast majority of Manny's income is gonna get a staggering top state rate of 13%. Contrast that to, say, signing in Chicago and paying their rate of 5% and you're looking at a difference of $2 million/season in taxes. That's not nothing.

BigRedChief

02-19-2019, 01:06 PM

In the end, for the Cards it worked out better that he left I'd imagine, but from a nostalgic standpoint I wanted that dude to be Stan the Man 2.0.It would have worked out better for him than the Cardinals, But, the decline and us forcing him into the lineup could have eroded his popularity.

It's all on him though as to why he didnt stay. The Cardinals offered up similar, in the ballpark money. He felt slighted or wanted every single $? We will never know....

DJ's left nut

02-19-2019, 01:12 PM

It would have worked out better for him than the Cardinals, But, the decline and us forcing him into the lineup could have eroded his popularity.

It's all on him though as to why he didnt stay. The Cardinals offered up similar, in the ballpark money. He felt slighted or wanted every single $? We will never know....

It's about respect, mang...

And God told him to take the biggest deal. God always tells them to take the biggest deal.

Marcellus

02-19-2019, 01:17 PM

C-Mart is just a fucking waste. Should have traded him after the 2017 season.

BigRedChief

02-19-2019, 01:34 PM

C-Mart is just a fucking waste. Should have traded him after the 2017 season.He has top of the rotation stuff. Just lacks the consistent focus to stay at that level. Maybe he should be put in as the closer? He has been consistently good when asked to just pitch and stay focused on one inning.

Rafferty and Mikolas are playoff caliber starting pitchers. I think we should bring along Reyes to get him ready to pitch in the playoffs. How ever they do that, save his innings to give us 5 innings in at least 3 games in the playoffs if needed.

Should have traded Wacha. If he somehow, someway ends up healthy at the break, the Cardinals should trade him. Consider yourself lucky. No way he finishes the season or helps us out in the playoffs, assuming we even get there.

Marcellus

02-19-2019, 01:39 PM

He has top of the rotation stuff. Just lacks the consistent focus to stay at that level. Maybe he should be put in as the closer? He has been consistently good when asked to just pitch and stay focused on one inning.

Rafferty and Mikolas are playoff caliber starting pitchers. I think we should bring along Reyes to get him ready to pitch in the playoffs. How ever they do that, save his innings to give us 5 innings in at least 3 games in the playoffs if needed.

Should have traded Wacha. If he somehow, someway ends up healthy at the break, the Cardinals should trade him. Consider yourself lucky. No way he finishes the season or helps us out in the playoffs, assuming we even get there.

C-Mart is hurt again, shutdown for 2 weeks because of shoulder weakness. Exact same issue as last season. No shocker there.

O.city

02-19-2019, 01:40 PM

It's about respect, mang...

And God told him to take the biggest deal. God always tells them to take the biggest deal.

God must be a capitalist.

BigRedChief

02-19-2019, 01:45 PM

C-Mart is hurt again, shutdown for 2 weeks because of shoulder weakness. Exact same issue as last season. No shocker there.:cuss: Fuck didn't know that.

O.city

02-19-2019, 01:46 PM

Of course he's hurt again.

He's always going to have issues with it. Look at him mechanically. He's a damn mess.

DJ's left nut

02-19-2019, 02:39 PM

Of course he's hurt again.

He's always going to have issues with it. Look at him mechanically. He's a damn mess.

I don't agree. He's a little loud and I don't love his recoil rather than follow through, but he does a pretty good job with deceleration even with that thrown in.

He does a great job using his legs, he doesn't come off late, his timing and rhythm are good; I mean when you look past the noise and just watch him at key points in his delivery, he's constantly in good, athletic positions.

In an absolutely perfect world I'd have his arm slot up but that's because...well because I can't throw low 3/4s with any kind of velocity so it's absolutely insane to me that anyone else can. It's just pure 'tall pitchers with overhand curves are the dreamiest' bias.

I think that because Carlos has loud mechanics with a lot of flailing arms, they can create some inconsistency. But beyond the noise you see a guy that does a lot of things extremely well. Those mechanics aren't what is creating injury and if the Cardinals try to dick with them, they'll make it worse. I think the problem is that he has a physical issue somewhere that they simply haven't found. This is ALL kinetic chain stuff, every bit of it. Last season was a perfect example of a guy that had something get wonky on him and he spend every pitch trying to compensate. That's why those injuries worked all up and down his core - when he'd compensate someplace, someplace else would break down.

If he came to camp with shoulder weakness that's an indictment on 1) The Cardinals for not having him on a throwing program designed to get his arm into shape or 2) Carlos for not adhering to it.

Because now they're probably fucked. If they can't get his shoulder up to necessary strength before they need him to contribute, they'll see a replay of 2018 where he spends the whole season chasing maladies.

But I'd throw away the 'his mechanics are breaking him' thing, personally. They aren't - they're quite sound, if a bit noisy. But he's a pitcher and pitchers get hurt.

O.city

02-19-2019, 02:55 PM

I don't agree. He's a little loud and I don't love his recoil rather than follow through, but he does a pretty good job with deceleration even with that thrown in.

He does a great job using his legs, he doesn't come off late, his timing and rhythm are good; I mean when you look past the noise and just watch him at key points in his delivery, he's constantly in good, athletic positions.

In an absolutely perfect world I'd have his arm slot up but that's because...well because I can't throw low 3/4s with any kind of velocity so it's absolutely insane to me that anyone else can. It's just pure 'tall pitchers with overhand curves are the dreamiest' bias.

I think that because Carlos has loud mechanics with a lot of flailing arms, they can create some inconsistency. But beyond the noise you see a guy that does a lot of things extremely well. Those mechanics aren't what is creating injury and if the Cardinals try to dick with them, they'll make it worse. I think the problem is that he has a physical issue somewhere that they simply haven't found. This is ALL kinetic chain stuff, every bit of it. Last season was a perfect example of a guy that had something get wonky on him and he spend every pitch trying to compensate. That's why those injuries worked all up and down his core - when he'd compensate someplace, someplace else would break down.

If he came to camp with shoulder weakness that's an indictment on 1) The Cardinals for not having him on a throwing program designed to get his arm into shape or 2) Carlos for not adhering to it.

Because now they're probably ****ed. If they can't get his shoulder up to necessary strength before they need him to contribute, they'll see a replay of 2018 where he spends the whole season chasing maladies.

But I'd throw away the 'his mechanics are breaking him' thing, personally. They aren't - they're quite sound, if a bit noisy. But he's a pitcher and pitchers get hurt.

I've just always thought he's too much of a pure arm thrower. I haven't really watched it broken down at all like you've said, so i'm probably way off, but he has always seemed a little "army" to me.

VAChief

02-19-2019, 03:15 PM

I've just always thought he's too much of a pure arm thrower. I haven't really watched it broken down at all like you've said, so i'm probably way off, but he has always seemed a little "army" to me.

Nah, he is a slinger...very loose, his mechanics as DJ pointed out can get off line because he has a lot of movement, but I never viewed him as an all arm type guy.

Jason Motte...now that was an arm guy.

DJ's left nut

02-19-2019, 03:19 PM

I've just always thought he's too much of a pure arm thrower. I haven't really watched it broken down at all like you've said, so i'm probably way off, but he has always seemed a little "army" to me.

The reason you think that is exactly why it isn't true.

People think he's an arm thrower because he comes off the mound so violently, but the reason he comes off the mound that hard is because he is driving hard off that back leg and firing his hips through so much that his drive leg comes swinging around when he lands. He uses a ton of legs.

His motion doesn't look the same as it did when he first came up, but back then he looked a TON like Bob Gibson. And Gibson eventually lost it when his lower half gave up up the ghost on him; pretty strong evidence of how much power he got from his lower half.

Think of it from a purely leverage perspective - a dude that's 6 ft tall throwing 100 mph from low 3/4 ain't doing that with just his arm. He needs his whole body in it. Someone like Wainwright could get away with that kind of thing a little more because he's coming from 6'5'' and straight over the top so he could be a little more army and still use long levers and gravity to do the work. Carlos, because of his stature and arm slot, has to use his body or he'd be throwing 87.

DJ's left nut

02-19-2019, 03:26 PM

On the flip side - I have no earthly idea how Chris Sale's arm is still attached. Anything I can think to look at on him is...wrong. He throws with a crossfire delivery, he doesn't use his legs nearly as much as I'd like, he brings that ball way behind his body and then whips it through with all the stress on his elbow. He never looks to truly get on top of the baseball (something that I think makes Martinez's mechanics look worse than they actually are) - just everything about watching him throw a baseball at 97 is painful. I have no idea how he's still on one piece.

I will say that if you compare his mechanics now with the Red Sox to what they were with the Chisox, you can see some real big differences. He uses his lower half better, balance is better at the top of his delivery, his arm comes through cleaner and more on top of his pitch. He looks a loooot better than he did and perhaps that's why he's still ticking, but man - the damage he did in his White Sox days has to catch up to him at some point, right?

O.city

02-19-2019, 03:34 PM

The reason you think that is exactly why it isn't true.

People think he's an arm thrower because he comes off the mound so violently, but the reason he comes off the mound that hard is because he is driving hard off that back leg and firing his hips through so much that his drive leg comes swinging around when he lands. He uses a ton of legs.

His motion doesn't look the same as it did when he first came up, but back then he looked a TON like Bob Gibson. And Gibson eventually lost it when his lower half gave up up the ghost on him; pretty strong evidence of how much power he got from his lower half.

Think of it from a purely leverage perspective - a dude that's 6 ft tall throwing 100 mph from low 3/4 ain't doing that with just his arm. He needs his whole body in it. Someone like Wainwright could get away with that kind of thing a little more because he's coming from 6'5'' and straight over the top so he could be a little more army and still use long levers and gravity to do the work. Carlos, because of his stature and arm slot, has to use his body or he'd be throwing 87.

Quite likely true.

It's probably a little "carlos is hurt" fatigue leaking into my eval. Fuck if I know.

I've never been a huge fan. I just hate guys that have stuff but struggle to throw strikes.

O.city

02-19-2019, 03:35 PM

On the flip side - I have no earthly idea how Chris Sale's arm is still attached. Anything I can think to look at on him is...wrong. He throws with a crossfire delivery, he doesn't use his legs nearly as much as I'd like, he brings that ball way behind his body and then whips it through with all the stress on his elbow. He never looks to truly get on top of the baseball (something that I think makes Martinez's mechanics look worse than they actually are) - just everything about watching him throw a baseball at 97 is painful. I have no idea how he's still on one piece.

I will say that if you compare his mechanics now with the Red Sox to what they were with the Chisox, you can see some real big differences. He uses his lower half better, balance is better at the top of his delivery, his arm comes through cleaner and more on top of his pitch. He looks a loooot better than he did and perhaps that's why he's still ticking, but man - the damage he did in his White Sox days has to catch up to him at some point, right?

Kinda wonder if it's just so genetically driven at that point that it won't matter?

I mean, these guys are the elites of the elites. They're just different.

Same thing with Mahomes throwing a football. It just is.

DJ's left nut

02-19-2019, 03:47 PM

Kinda wonder if it's just so genetically driven at that point that it won't matter?

I mean, these guys are the elites of the elites. They're just different.

Same thing with Mahomes throwing a football. It just is.

Scherzer.

Guy had a lot of shoulder issues; some at Mizzou and then again in AZ and Detroit. Nothing ever serious but a lot of nagging soreness that kept AZ from ever being convinced he could be a long-term starter (and had Mizzou bouncing him in and out of the rotation at times to keep him healthy).

I still don't think his mechanics are the way you'd teach it but again - low 3/4's bias on my part. He separates well, doesn't pull back too far, very good balance and drive. But ultimately as he's gotten older and stronger, his body can just...do it. Somehow he can almost 'push' the pitch uphill as he's delivering it. He's like Sale in that he just never seems to be on top of the ball but when your body can do it, it can do it.

What always blew my mind was Jose Fernandez getting hurt. I loooooved the way that guy threw. Mechanics looked stellar, body type was built to eat innings. I never got the impression he was overthrowing - just looked like a born 220 inning/season guy and of course he blows his arm out (then died). The only thing he did that I don't like is the same thing Martinez does - that damn recoil. Just let your arm fall through.

I love Syndergaard's mechanics but he's had some issues. DeGrom blew out his arm in the minors. I like Greinke a ton and he's been healthy. Verlander's how you'd teach it but Verlander had a 2-3 year period where he was fighting various maladies. I mean that guy has prototype 'classic' mechanics (to my laypersons eyes) and even he hasn't been 100% healthy.

Pitching is just a bitch and a half and these guys get hurt. All you can do is ride 'em till they buck ya.

O.city

02-19-2019, 04:17 PM

Scherzer.

Guy had a lot of shoulder issues; some at Mizzou and then again in AZ and Detroit. Nothing ever serious but a lot of nagging soreness that kept AZ from ever being convinced he could be a long-term starter (and had Mizzou bouncing him in and out of the rotation at times to keep him healthy).

I still don't think his mechanics are the way you'd teach it but again - low 3/4's bias on my part. He separates well, doesn't pull back too far, very good balance and drive. But ultimately as he's gotten older and stronger, his body can just...do it. Somehow he can almost 'push' the pitch uphill as he's delivering it. He's like Sale in that he just never seems to be on top of the ball but when your body can do it, it can do it.

What always blew my mind was Jose Fernandez getting hurt. I loooooved the way that guy threw. Mechanics looked stellar, body type was built to eat innings. I never got the impression he was overthrowing - just looked like a born 220 inning/season guy and of course he blows his arm out (then died). The only thing he did that I don't like is the same thing Martinez does - that damn recoil. Just let your arm fall through.

I love Syndergaard's mechanics but he's had some issues. DeGrom blew out his arm in the minors. I like Greinke a ton and he's been healthy. Verlander's how you'd teach it but Verlander had a 2-3 year period where he was fighting various maladies. I mean that guy has prototype 'classic' mechanics (to my laypersons eyes) and even he hasn't been 100% healthy.

Pitching is just a bitch and a half and these guys get hurt. All you can do is ride 'em till they buck ya.

It's the running back of baseball IMO. Just the nature of what you're doing, your body is going to break down. It's kind of inevitable.

It's also why I think the Cards have screwed up so many times not moving on from some of these guys for every day guys. They're good at developing pitching and identifying it. But they hold it to long and it implodes.

O.city

02-19-2019, 04:18 PM

<blockquote class="twitter-tweet" data-lang="en"><p lang="en" dir="ltr">Cards exec John Mozeliak not totally thrilled with Carlos Martinez's winter training regimen: "Obviously, there’s a history with Carlos’ shoulder and it would be probably in everybody’s best interest if he maintained a constant or perpetual approach to that program."</p>— Mark Saxon (@markasaxon) <a href="https://twitter.com/markasaxon/status/1097982818523799552?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">February 19, 2019</a></blockquote>
<script async src="https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js" charset="utf-8"></script>

Sounds like that's on Carlos.

DJ's left nut

02-19-2019, 04:19 PM

If he came to camp with shoulder weakness that's an indictment on 1) The Cardinals for not having him on a throwing program designed to get his arm into shape or 2) Carlos for not adhering to it.

Well Mr. Mozeliak just announced with authority who's fault HE thinks it is....

<blockquote class="twitter-tweet" data-lang="en"><p lang="en" dir="ltr">Cards exec John Mozeliak not totally thrilled with Carlos Martinez's winter training regimen: "Obviously, there’s a history with Carlos’ shoulder and it would be probably in everybody’s best interest if he maintained a constant or perpetual approach to that program."</p>— Mark Saxon (@markasaxon) <a href="https://twitter.com/markasaxon/status/1097982818523799552?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">February 19, 2019</a></blockquote>
<script async src="https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js" charset="utf-8"></script>

John sounds...not thrilled...with Carlos's off-season dedication to his training/throwing regime.

Like I said, there's no reason for Carlos to have come into camp with a weak shoulder. It sounds like the Cardinals believe he sat a little too much ass this off-season and now he's simply not ready to throw.

EDIT: You're getting so much better at this, O.! I still maintain it's because I say more than you do, but small victories...

O.city

02-19-2019, 04:20 PM

I win.

DJ's left nut

02-19-2019, 04:22 PM

I win.

My post was still better because it has a callback to my previous brilliance in identifying the actual problem over your clearly foolish "but his mechanics!" approach.

Go drill some teeth or something.

O.city

02-19-2019, 04:23 PM

My post was still better because it has a callback to my previous brilliance in identifying the actual problem over your clearly foolish "but his mechanics!" approach.

Go drill some teeth or something.

I'm waiting for a pt to get numb so I can do a root canal because I told them 2 years ago that a tooth needed a filling and they said "nah, it's not hurting I'll wait til it does".

Naturally, what could have been an easy 170 dollar filling is now a 2k dollar root canal and crown.

SAUTO

02-19-2019, 04:46 PM

I'm waiting for a pt to get numb so I can do a root canal because I told them 2 years ago that a tooth needed a filling and they said "nah, it's not hurting I'll wait til it does".

Naturally, what could have been an easy 170 dollar filling is now a 2k dollar root canal and crown. you should've just punched it out. He was looking to hurt anyway.

SAUTO

02-19-2019, 04:47 PM

And DAMN that seems expensive. Glad we got in on the family plan.

O.city

02-19-2019, 07:27 PM

And DAMN that seems expensive. Glad we got in on the family plan.

Lol keep that to yourself

BigRedChief

02-19-2019, 08:57 PM

If he came to camp with shoulder weakness that's an indictment on 1) The Cardinals for not having him on a throwing program designed to get his arm into shape or 2) Carlos for not adhering to it.Goold was on the Danny Mac podcast trying to not throw Carlos under the bus for not adhering to the throwing and strengthening exercises that the Cardinals and his own medical advisors put him on to strengthen the arm, scapula and the muscles around the shoulder. That there would be more on that in the paper but thats all he'd say for now. Sounds like he was going to come down on Carlos hard for not doing the off season work.

You seen the off-season workouts that Mahomes is doing to strengthen his shoulder on Instagram? Thats some fantastic commitment to being his personal best and for the team.

It seems that all I ever see from Carlos is he with his Lamborghini. Maybe he has been doing the off-season work but spring training opens and his shoulder needs to rest? Come on man.....

BigRedChief

02-20-2019, 04:07 PM

Not looking good for DJ’s fantasy team........

<blockquote class="twitter-tweet"><p lang="en" dir="ltr">Top <a href="https://twitter.com/hashtag/MLB?src=hash&ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">#MLB</a> positional player contracts the last ten years:<br><br>Giancarlo Stanton - $325mil<br>Miguel Cabrera - $248mil<br>Albert Pujols - $240mil<br>Robinson Cano - $240mil<br>Joey Votto - $225mil<br>Prince Fielder - $214mil<br><br>World Series Games after signing - 0<br><br>Welcome to the club Manny <a href="https://twitter.com/hashtag/Machado?src=hash&ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">#Machado</a>.</p>— Colin Barnicle (@ColinBarnicle) <a href="https://twitter.com/ColinBarnicle/status/1098072305404706816?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">February 20, 2019</a></blockquote> <script async src="https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js" charset="utf-8"></script>

VAChief

02-21-2019, 12:58 PM

http://www.espn.com/mlb/story/_/id/26038266/last-place-chicago-cubs-laugh-formula-finishing-500

ROFL

I don't see it happening, but still funny as hell.

BigRedChief

02-21-2019, 03:45 PM

http://www.espn.com/mlb/story/_/id/26038266/last-place-chicago-cubs-laugh-formula-finishing-500

ROFL

I don't see it happening, but still funny as hell.they have a lot of unhappy people in that clubhouse, front office and fans. Everyone can now see clearly, there will be no dyansty with this group.

But falling to last place? GTFO ROFL

BigRedChief

02-21-2019, 10:30 PM

Looks like they are going to bat Fowler 2nd. Updated the projected lineup in the OP based on what was in the STL today article.

Jewish Rabbi

02-21-2019, 10:33 PM

Looks like they are going to bat Fowler 2nd. Updated the projected lineup in the OP based on what was in the STL today article.

Might as well pull Martinez out of your projected rotation too

BigRedChief

02-21-2019, 11:41 PM

Might as well pull Martinez out of your projected rotation toohell, your going to need to write it all in pencil. We have a lot of talent but not many dependable or proven starters. Mikolas, Flaherty and then......

even in a best case scenario that Reyes, Hudson and Gomer perform at or near their top potential, they are not pitching 200 innings.

Wacha will be hurt within a couple of months
Waino? No way he contributes anything significantly for a full season
Martinez is going to the bullpen

Bernie in the Athletic made a case today to go after Dallas Keuchel. He thinks you can get him in a 2-3 year deal. I’m kind of warming to that idea as long as the contract length isn’t more than 2 years with an opt out if it’s 3 years.

On the plus side the bullpen is going to be better
Martinez, Miller and Hicks and maybe Heisley will potentially be as good as anyone’s backend in baseball.

Prison Bitch

02-22-2019, 12:31 PM

PB: Just surprised you're ok with Theo blowing 55M on three vets who are basically Jake Junis. If you're cool with that I won't get in the way. Theodore strategy of developing the hitting get the pitching failed this year. And I don't think it gets better next year.

JD1010: A lot of the Cubs ugly rotation numbers came from Tyler Chatwood who isn't in the rotation any more and I suspect the Cubs will extend Cole Hamels to get his number down for next year.

So you keep on looking at stat sheets and I'll keep watching the actual games.

PB: Yeah you keep watching Cubs, I'll keep watching the Royals. It's the same exact rotation so we can both speak about the other. Hamels pitched really well and was the only diff between the rotations. If you're ok being the same SP as the Royals headed into 2019, which you will be w/o Hamels (and maybe even with him if he reverts to recent form), I won't stop you

JD1010: Your and idiot. Stick to last place baseball and thinking your team is in any way comparable to 90+ win teams.

http://work.chiefsplanet.com/BB/showpost.php?p=13786930&postcount=3861

Last place? Cubs laugh off formula that has them finishing under .500

MESA, Ariz. -- It was hidden in plain sight. And everyone in the locker room saw it. At the bottom of the daily schedule, on Day 1 of full-squad workouts for the Chicago Cubs, was a prediction for their season. Baseball Prospectus' proprietary PECOTA formula had the Cubs going 80-82, finishing in last place in the National League Central.

“If that's what they have us at, they need to recheck those numbers," closer Brandon Morrow said. "That's ridiculous, considering the guys we have coming back from injuries. It's not the Chicago Cubs."

According to Cubs brass, the PECOTA formula doesn't take kindly to aging starting pitchers. Jon Lester and Cole Hamels are both 35 years old, Yu Darvish is 32, Jose Quintana just turned 30 and Kyle Hendricks is 29.

http://www.espn.com/mlb/story/_/id/26038266/last-place-chicago-cubs-laugh-formula-finishing-500

DJ's left nut

02-22-2019, 12:36 PM

I get that the Cubs are chafed and probably rightfully so.

But what they fail to acknowledge is that Pecota considers ceiling AND floor. And while the Cubs ceiling is as high or higher than anyone in the NL, their floor is reeeeeaaaaal bad. That pitching staff could be among the worst in all of baseball and their reinforcements establish zero confidence.

Now it would require that every question mark that have go badly for them. Lester's decline would have to continue (his stuff is just shitty these days) and Hamels would have to revert back to his Rangers form. Darvish would have to stay hurt and the league would have to catch onto Hendricks and his slow, slower, slowest approach. And Quintana would have to be the fools gold he looked like last year.

None of those things are individually impossible or even unlikely. But for ALL of those things to happen seems pretty remote.

If they do, that team could struggle to win 75 games. Granted, you can pretty much say that about everybody's pitching staff but the Cubs do seem to have an unusual combination of age, injury and fringy stuff all over their staff.

Prison Bitch

02-22-2019, 12:57 PM

Nobody ever sees a collapse coming DJ. That’s precisely why they happen.

BigRedChief

02-23-2019, 05:29 PM

Jose Martinez gets a 2 year deal. Since he still is under the control for 4 more years. And those 2 years of control beyond this agreement are still there, Why do this? Does it make him more “tradeable”?

BigRedChief

02-26-2019, 02:48 PM

Mikolas signing a new 4 year deal worth $68 million guaranteed.

<blockquote class="twitter-tweet"><p lang="en" dir="ltr">Reports: Cardinals sign Mikolas to contract extension <a href="https://t.co/pwEUTHBEIZ">https://t.co/pwEUTHBEIZ</a> <a href="https://twitter.com/hashtag/KMOV?src=hash&ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">#KMOV</a> <a href="https://t.co/cX4q4r0kdA">pic.twitter.com/cX4q4r0kdA</a></p>— KMOV (@KMOV) <a href="https://twitter.com/KMOV/status/1100475605173166081?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">February 26, 2019</a></blockquote> <script async src="https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js" charset="utf-8"></script>

DJ's left nut

02-26-2019, 03:01 PM

Pretty much an exactly 'fair' deal by my general view on the value of a win and how I'd project his age 31-34 seasons.

I mean everyone that still parrots that retarded $8 million+ win share bullshit (they're actually trying to push that to $9 million now) will go sucking Moe's dick but by a reasonable breakdown of what teams actually consider good contracts (vs. simply averaging out all the shit they have to eat because of guaranteed deals), you can see this is a reasonably fair deal for both sides.

I'd say the range of possible outcomes over that contract is something between $105-110 million of 'value' on the high end (presuming slight drop off and steady inflation in player salaries) to around $35-$40 million presuming a year lost to injury, more aggressive drop off and a flat revenue curve in baseball.

Shoot for the middle of those and you're looking at $70-75 million as a reasonable middle ground with both sides accepting similar risk.

There are a bunch of different ways to look at this deal and every way I look at it says that something from $65 to about $76 million seems close enough in the margins to not care either way.

It's a fair deal - I can live with that.

Marco Polo

02-26-2019, 04:34 PM

Pretty much an exactly 'fair' deal by my general view on the value of a win and how I'd project his age 31-34 seasons.

I mean everyone that still parrots that retarded $8 million+ win share bullshit (they're actually trying to push that to $9 million now) will go sucking Moe's dick but by a reasonable breakdown of what teams actually consider good contracts (vs. simply averaging out all the shit they have to eat because of guaranteed deals), you can see this is a reasonably fair deal for both sides.

I'd say the range of possible outcomes over that contract is something between $105-110 million of 'value' on the high end (presuming slight drop off and steady inflation in player salaries) to around $35-$40 million presuming a year lost to injury, more aggressive drop off and a flat revenue curve in baseball.

Shoot for the middle of those and you're looking at $70-75 million as a reasonable middle ground with both sides accepting similar risk.

There are a bunch of different ways to look at this deal and every way I look at it says that something from $65 to about $76 million seems close enough in the margins to not care either way.

It's a fair deal - I can live with that.

Always enjoy reading your analysis after a move

BigRedChief

02-26-2019, 05:32 PM

Always enjoy reading your analysis after a moveThis. Makes sense.

A “Fair deal” is the best we can hope for in baseball contracts these days.

Frazod

02-27-2019, 08:04 AM

Always enjoy reading your analysis after a move

I wish he was the GM.

Marco Polo

02-27-2019, 08:24 AM

This article was posted on the Athletic yesterday. Not a lot of comments after the article, like normal, but it's a very important shift (pun intended) on the defensive approach. Also, I still hate Matheny.

With Paul Goldschmidt anchoring Cardinals infield, they’re preparing to shift more, at last

JUPITER, Fla. – It was the second inning of a spring-training game, a moment with virtually no impact on the St. Louis Cardinals’ chances this season, at least at first glance.

Matt Adams, ex-Cardinal and an extreme left-handed pull hitter, was batting. Third baseman Matt Carpenter did something he figures to do more than ever before in his career — he jogged over to the opposite side of the infield.

Adams swung at Michael Wacha’s first pitch and hit a weak popup in foul territory. It was on the third-base side, where only shortstop Edmundo Sosa was left standing.

By the time the ball landed in Sosa’s glove, Wacha, too, had run over and could have made the catch. A year ago, that shift might not have happened, because under manager Mike Matheny and infield coach Jose Oquendo, the Cardinals didn’t often practice what to do while three infielders were on one side of the diamond.

The Cardinals led the majors in errors last season, just one indication of how poorly they have fielded in recent seasons. Shifting more aggressively is part of the planned solution.

“Michael was right on it,” Shildt said. “We’re going to have more of an understanding of how to execute when we’re in the shift.”

In 2019, the Cardinals employed three infielders on one side of the second-base bag less frequently than any team in the National League. Against left-handed batters, the Cardinals employed shifts 6.8 percent of the time. Against righties, they did it 1.9 percent of the time, according to Statcast data. By contrast, the data-driven Houston Astros shifted nearly 60 percent of the time against lefties and 21.2 percent of the time vs. righties.

The Cardinals think it’s time to start catching up to one of the game’s most talked-about trends.

“We’re preparing to do more of it,” general manager Michael Girsch said. “Now, whether we do a lot more of it will depend on how our pitchers are pitching and who our defenders are and all sorts of things, but we’re in a better position to do more of it.”

The managerial change from Matheny to Shildt is among the factors prompting the Cardinals to shift more, team sources said, but there are two others.

Oquendo moved infielders based on his deep knowledge of major league hitters, but he will give way to Stubby Clapp, who is in his first season as a major-league coach. The Cardinals are hopeful that, as good as Oquendo was at it, computer-supplied data will be even better.

First baseman Paul Goldschmidt, a three-time Gold Glove Award winner, not only is athletic enough to cover the ground necessary to shift in extreme ways, he’s more than willing to do it. Last year, the Cardinals had Carpenter and José Martínez at first base in most games, and both were learning on the job, not always successfully.

“I think the idea of the shift is you’re trying to put all seven of your players besides the pitcher and the catcher in the best spot possible to catch as many balls,” Goldschmidt said. “If guys are going to hit it to one spot, you want to be standing in the best spot possible. I think we’ve seen the numbers back that up. One step here or there can make a big difference, and the data does show you that.”

Evidence suggests that shifting has tamped-down offense to some extent, but the data is not overwhelming. The two teams that employed three fielders on one side of the bag most frequently, the Astros and Tampa Bay Rays, each were among the top five in MLB in batting average on balls in play (BABIP) allowed. The Rays allowed opponents a .278 BABIP and the Astros .283.

The Cardinals (.293) and Los Angeles Angels (.294), the teams that shifted the least, were both below average at converting batted balls into outs. The San Diego Padres (.305) also were among the least-aggressive teams with regard to shifting, and they, too, struggled defensively.

Among the 10 worst teams in BABIP, the Kansas City Royals, Minnesota Twins and New York Yankees, though, were also in the top five in shifts.

“I’m not sure anyone knows what the exact right answer is for efficiency. I think we could definitely shift more and be in the range of: ‘This seems like the right thing to do,’ Girsch said. “But I’m not 100 percent sure that there’s an exact right answer that we were missing.”

It’s also not universally popular, even among Cardinals infielders. Second baseman Kolten Wong, the team’s most agile infielder, isn’t a fan.

Wong, who was a finalist for a Gold Glove Award in 2018, said he thinks shifting allows teams to employ infielders “who shouldn’t be playing the infield,” and he would like to see Major League Baseball rule against it.
“It takes away from guys like me who pride ourselves on being able to make those plays,” Wong said. “I didn’t need to be put in any position. I know if I do my job and I read these pitchers, I read how they’re throwing the ball, I can make my best educated guess of how to get to balls. With other guys, you can see if they’re not really focused on that.”

Wong said he will go along with the plan to shift more. Cardinals pitchers have already been told to expect more of it. One of the reasons Matheny backed down from an earlier attempt to shift more, sources say, was because of blowback from Oquendo and some of the pitchers.

“I think we’re past the point of upsetting anybody,” Shildt said.

Miles

02-27-2019, 10:17 AM

Cards signed Matt Wieters yesterday to a minor league deal. Know he’s likely pretty washed but Pena is not exactly a high bar for backup catch to make an improvement on.

Prison Bitch

02-27-2019, 10:24 AM

Pretty much an exactly 'fair' deal by my general view on the value of a win and how I'd project his age 31-34 seasons.

I mean everyone that still parrots that retarded $8 million+ win share bullshit (they're actually trying to push that to $9 million now) will go sucking Moe's dick but by a reasonable breakdown of what teams actually consider good contracts (vs. simply averaging out all the shit they have to eat because of guaranteed deals), you can see this is a reasonably fair deal for both sides.

I'd say the range of possible outcomes over that contract is something between $105-110 million of 'value' on the high end (presuming slight drop off and steady inflation in player salaries) to around $35-$40 million presuming a year lost to injury, more aggressive drop off and a flat revenue curve in baseball.

Shoot for the middle of those and you're looking at $70-75 million as a reasonable middle ground with both sides accepting similar risk.

There are a bunch of different ways to look at this deal and every way I look at it says that something from $65 to about $76 million seems close enough in the margins to not care either way.

It's a fair deal - I can live with that.

I don’t understand the point you’re teying to make here.

BigRedChief

02-27-2019, 12:10 PM

Cards signed Matt Wieters yesterday to a minor league deal. Know he’s likely pretty washed but Pena is not exactly a high bar for backup catch to make an improvement on.why not give him a look?:hmmm: Agree that Pena will not provide shit this year. Keizer needs the year of experience in AAA. We just need a one year stop gap to get to
Knizer.

BigRedChief

02-27-2019, 12:13 PM

Also, I still hate Matheny:cuss: damn right. He set us back years.

O.city

02-27-2019, 01:51 PM

Well, looks like the Harper sweepstakes is down to the Giants and Dodgers.

DJ's left nut

02-27-2019, 02:02 PM

Well, looks like the Harper sweepstakes is down to the Giants and Dodgers.

Evidently history just doesn't !@#$ing matter to ANYONE.

I mean Jesus, Harper - can you imagine what you'll be capable of in that launching pad in Philly? That park is a dream for lefty power hitters and he'd just kill in it.

And instead he, like Machado, wants to go to among the 5 worst hitting environments in baseball because they'll pay him some slight percentage more than Philadelphia would, all of which is just gonna be sitting in the bank when he dies.

Oh, and fuck the Cardinals again for not even engaging. God dammit that's irritating.

But hey, at least they'll get to pay Goldschmidt the same AAV for his decline years while he plays a position that their best hitter already played while batting RH when they needed a lefty. So that's nice.

BigRedChief

02-27-2019, 06:28 PM

Evidently history just doesn't !@#$ing matter to ANYONE.

I mean Jesus, Harper - can you imagine what you'll be capable of in that launching pad in Philly? That park is a dream for lefty power hitters and he'd just kill in it.

And instead he, like Machado, wants to go to among the 5 worst hitting environments in baseball because they'll pay him some slight percentage more than Philadelphia would, all of which is just gonna be sitting in the bank when he dies.

Oh, and fuck the Cardinals again for not even engaging. God dammit that's irritating.

But hey, at least they'll get to pay Goldschmidt the same AAV for his decline years while he plays a position that their best hitter already played while batting RH when they needed a lefty. So that's nice.I was on record that they should give $350 million to Harper as soon as the season was over if that’s what it took to land him.

you can’t really fault the Cardinals for passing on Harper and Machado after watching how all this has played out in MLB. A bunch of teams are passing on them. Most need him as bad as we do. Looks like both were just going to the place who will pay the highest $. We can’t outbid The big boys.

As long as we have a top 10 payroll, money won’t be why we fail. We failed last year in part because we gave $100 million to Fowler, Cecil, Holland, Gregerson etc. We spent top 10 money last year. Just on the wrong players. That’s not a Dewitt issue but a Mo issue.

Frazod

02-27-2019, 07:00 PM

Well, looks like the Harper sweepstakes is down to the Giants and Dodgers.

Harper could be another Pujols - the next team pays big bucks for him and ends up with little more than a steadily declining money pit.

And if he ends up going to either of those fuckball teams, especially the Giants, I'll be rooting for him to do exactly that.

Frazod

02-28-2019, 02:20 PM

https://philadelphia.cbslocal.com/2019/02/28/bryce-harper-signs-philadelphia-phillies/

ChiefsCountry

02-28-2019, 02:40 PM

Well, looks like the Harper sweepstakes is down to the Giants and Dodgers.

Or Philadelphia. :D

DJ's left nut

02-28-2019, 03:13 PM

Bill DeWitt is a crook and John Mozeliak is a pussy.

Fucking Cardinals. Jesus Christ.

BigRedChief

02-28-2019, 04:38 PM

Bill DeWitt is a crook and John Mozeliak is a pussy.

Fucking Cardinals. Jesus Christ.I don’t know.... 13 years with no trade? Evidently 30 other teams are passing on those numbers. Can’t just shit on the Cardinals without getting it all those other teams too.
————————————————-

Manager Gabe Kapler heard the big news from fans in the stands during the Philadelphia Phillies spring training game. His team appears to have won the Bryce Harper sweepstakes, finalizing a 13-year, $330 million deal with the free-agent outfielder, league sources told ESPN's Jeff Passan on Thursday.

Harper's deal includes a no-trade clause and has no opt-outs, league sources told ESPN, indicating that he is committed to the Phillies for possibly the rest of his career.

DJ's left nut

02-28-2019, 04:49 PM

I don’t know.... 13 years with no trade? Evidently 30 other teams are passing on those numbers. Can’t just shit on the Cardinals without getting it all those other teams too.

Sure I can.

A) Any owner that wasn't effectively gifted his team and hasn't had it paid for free and clear for 25 years isn't in the same boat as the Cardinals. Debt service matters, I'll acknowledge that. What's DeWitt's excuse when he sold the !@#$ing parking garages that came gratis for 80% of what the team cost?

B) Any team that can't count on 35,000/gm to come out to watch a product even when it's demonstratively lousy isn't in the same boat as the Cardinals. Risk matters and DeWitt has none with the ballpark and the team this ingrained into the culture of the city.

C) Any team that doesn't have it's own bar district that is doing damage to the rest of the downtown scene while continuing to line the owners pockets isn't in the same boat as the Cardinals. That's a cash register that's come at the expense of the rest of downtown but far be it for DeWitt to put some of that money back into the ballclub.

D) Any team who doesn't go from a potential WC team to a genuine contender with the addition of a desperately needed LH bat who they could add to the lineup to replace one of the 2-3 worst regulars in baseball last year is not in the same boat as the Cardinals.

Now I am aware that this probably doesn't pare the list down to zero - there are other teams that goddamn well should've made this move and have no excuse to have sat on the sidelines. But I do not root for those teams and thus give zero fucks about them.

Bill Dewitt, the billionaire owner of the St. Louis Cardinals, who has sat on a decade of year over year record profits, who's team is sitting on literal billions of positive equity and who presently has the worst RFer in baseball playing at the top of a RH heavy lineup and has spent several seasons now looking up at their chief rival, has not one single motherfucking excuse at all for not pursuing Bryce Harper.

No, I'm not going to hold every team in baseball as accountable as the Cardinals. Apart from just being equal parts cheap and stupid over the last several years (previously stupid, now cheap), they have no reason not to have made this move.

'Hamas' Jenkins

02-28-2019, 04:57 PM

If he took 13/330 with no opt outs, he would have taken 10/300.

Instead, the Cardinals end up giving that money to the Cecils and Gregersons of the world.

BigRedChief

02-28-2019, 05:03 PM

Sure I can.

A) Any owner that wasn't effectively gifted his team and hasn't had it paid for free and clear for 25 years isn't in the same boat as the Cardinals. Debt service matters, I'll acknowledge that. What's DeWitt's excuse when he sold the !@#$ing parking garages that came gratis for 80% of what the team cost?

B) Any team that can't count on 35,000/gm to come out to watch a product even when it's demonstratively lousy isn't in the same boat as the Cardinals. Risk matters and DeWitt has none with the ballpark and the team this ingrained into the culture of the city.

C) Any team that doesn't have it's own bar district that is doing damage to the rest of the downtown scene while continuing to line the owners pockets isn't in the same boat as the Cardinals. That's a cash register that's come at the expense of the rest of downtown but far be it for DeWitt to put some of that money back into the ballclub.

D) Any team who doesn't go from a potential WC team to a genuine contender with the addition of a desperately needed LH bat who they could add to the lineup to replace one of the 2-3 worst regulars in baseball last year is not in the same boat as the Cardinals.

Now I am aware that this probably doesn't pare the list down to zero - there are other teams that goddamn well should've made this move and have no excuse to have sat on the sidelines. But I do not root for those teams and thus give zero fucks about them.

Bill Dewitt, the billionaire owner of the St. Louis Cardinals, who has sat on a decade of year over year record profits, who's team is sitting on literal billions of positive equity and who presently has the worst RFer in baseball playing at the top of a RH heavy lineup and has spent several seasons now looking up at their chief rival, has not one single motherfucking excuse at all for not pursuing Bryce Harper.

No, I'm not going to hold every team in baseball as accountable as the Cardinals. Apart from just being equal parts cheap and stupid over the last several years (previously stupid, now cheap), they have no reason not to have made this move.I agree with you on the Dewitt comments and financial state of the Cardinals. Your spot on.

I would have been happy with a 13 year/$330 million contract. I just posted 3 posts above that I advocated $350 million if that’s what it took. That said.....I understand from a state of baseball, risk/reward perspective why they didn’t pull the trigger.

DJ's left nut

02-28-2019, 05:04 PM

If he took 13/330 with no opt outs, he would have taken 10/300.

Instead, the Cardinals end up giving that money to the Cecils and Gregersons of the world.

I'm not sure he would've. He wanted the 'record guarantee' and i think the only way he was getting that was to spread it out over 13 years and agree to no opt-outs.

With Stanton sitting at $325, I think it Harper and Boras wanted to be able to break the record. I can't speak to why - it's only gonna last as long as it takes Trout to re-negotiate or hit FA, if it even lasts that long.

The Cardinals should've given it to him. If baseball's revenues continue up and the players get the luxury tax increased (they will), even a 5% increase annually is conservative and 13 years down the road that money will be nominal; maybe 10% of the Cardinals payroll for a player who will have, with reasonable health, settled into franchise icon status.

It's just absurdly chickenshit.

BigRedChief

02-28-2019, 05:12 PM

If he took 13/330 with no opt outs, he would have taken 10/300.

Instead, the Cardinals end up giving that money to the Cecils and Gregersons of the world.

I'm not sure he would've. He wanted the 'record guarantee' and i think the only way he was getting that was to spread it out over 13 years and agree to no opt-outs.

With Stanton sitting at $325, I think it Harper and Boras wanted to be able to break the record. I can't speak to why - it's only gonna last as long as it takes Trout to re-negotiate or hit FA, if it even lasts that long.

The Cardinals should've given it to him. If baseball's revenues continue up and the players get the luxury tax increased (they will), even a 5% increase annually is conservative and 13 years down the road that money will be nominal; maybe 10% of the Cardinals payroll for a player who will have, with reasonablenes health, settled into franchise icon status.

It's just absurdly chickenshit.its obvious to me that Harper and or Boras wanted to break the record contract number.

BigRedChief

03-01-2019, 02:15 PM

Listened to a couple of podcasts that said Gammons was in camp and he’s reporting that his “feel” after talking with the Cardinals is that Carlos is out till the first of July.

Just ticks me off. You just never know if a player just phones it in once they get paid. The dude grew up literally dirt poor. Seems like he would do the off season workouts to keep his shoulder and arm in the best shape as possible. What a waste. :shake:

BigRedChief

03-05-2019, 06:35 PM

Went to the game today. Sat in row 9 behind home plate. Perfect spot to see the movement on pitches.

Flaherty was sooo dominant today. No one got even close to understanding what was coming or when they guessed right, couldnt square it up. The movement on his slider is really amazing from this viewpoint.

Hicks came out throwing 103 on a windy and cold day. His 88 mph slider also have great movement. And he is now throwing it for a strike. If he can throw that slider for a strike, he will be the best closer in baseball soon.

Reyes looked rough, it was his first time pitching in about a year so that's to be expected.

Fowler looked lost on every pitch of every AB besides one pitch. Was not even close to looking like a professional hitter. He was a carbon copy of the player who was 2nd worst MLB player last year. He also misplayed a ball in the outfield very badly.

https://i.imgur.com/axvdW09.jpghttps://i.imgur.com/c21n5xI.jpghttps://i.imgur.com/eKL3qEA.jpg\
<script async="" src="//s.imgur.com/min/embed.js" charset="utf-8"></script>

duncan_idaho

03-05-2019, 06:42 PM

Hicks is for sure locked in as the closer? Do you expect Shildt to mix and match a bit or stick with a guy?

Trying to decide how many auction $$ to try throwing at Hicks...

BigRedChief

03-05-2019, 07:10 PM

Hicks is for sure locked in as the closer? Do you expect Shildt to mix and match a bit or stick with a guy?

Trying to decide how many auction $$ to try throwing at Hicks...no, they haven’t announced a closer. But..... if he can throw that 88 mph slider for a strike on 3-2 counts like he did today, it’s going to happen. Moving Martinez to the bullpen may be the fly in the ointment.

Jewish Rabbi

03-05-2019, 07:15 PM

We’ll see what happens, but Shildt has made it clear he’s okay determining his closer by matchup. Hicks has the biggest upside but Miller and Martinez (and Reyes?) will probably gets looks at points during the year.

Prison Bitch

03-05-2019, 07:15 PM

Hicks is for sure locked in as the closer? Do you expect Shildt to mix and match a bit or stick with a guy?

Trying to decide how many auction $$ to try throwing at Hicks...

Royals should acquire Jack Shildt

O.city

03-06-2019, 09:06 AM

Opening day quickly approaching, anyone gonna try and make it?

Marco Polo

03-06-2019, 10:17 AM

Opening day quickly approaching, anyone gonna try and make it?

I'll be there! Eighth time in the last 10 years.

O.city

03-06-2019, 11:57 AM

I'll be there! Eighth time in the last 10 years.

Think i'm gonna try and take my dad. We haven't been to opening day in a while.

bdj23

03-06-2019, 12:02 PM

Of course everyone goes the year after I go.

Hope you guys dont get snow and wind like last year.

VAChief

03-06-2019, 05:16 PM

TO goes deep again, his 4th. Nice compact stroke driven to the opposite field.

BigRedChief

03-06-2019, 06:14 PM

TO goes deep again, his 4th. Nice compact stroke driven to the opposite field.I was at this game today too. Along with a bunch of Cardinals fans in Steinbrenner stadium.

Everyone was shocked that the fly ball got out. It wasn’t wind aided. It was just raw power. The Yankee fans around me were impressed. One fan said, That’s Stanton level raw power.

O’Neill spent the off season working with the new hitting coach on pitch recognition. Spent time learning and hitting with Carpenter on his ranch in Texas.

Fowler still looks lost. If the Cardinals want to win. The best players that give them a chance to win have to play. Martinez and O’Neil give you a better chance to win. The only reason Fowler starts the season in RF, is money. That’s totally unacceptable.
https://i.imgur.com/BzP9hoh.jpg

VAChief

03-06-2019, 06:31 PM

I was at this game today too. Along with a bunch of Cardinals fans in Steinbrenner stadium.

Everyone was shocked that the fly ball got out. It wasn’t wind aided. It was just raw power. The Yankee fans around me were impressed. One fan said, That’s Stanton level raw power.

O’Neill spent the off season working with the new hitting coach on pitch recognition. Spent time learning and hitting with Carpenter on his ranch in Texas.

Fowler still looks lost. If the Cardinals want to win. The best players that give them a chance to win have to play. Martinez and O’Neil give you a better chance to win. The only reason Fowler starts the season in RF, is money. That’s totally unacceptable.
https://i.imgur.com/BzP9hoh.jpg

I think they will give Fowler April to get going. He can suck all preseason and they will still try it. O’Neill should get starts regardless at all three positions.

O.city

03-06-2019, 09:19 PM

I don’t think you can “learn” the strike zone once you got the the show

Kinda like accuracy in football

BigRedChief

03-06-2019, 10:13 PM

:cuss: this pisses me off do much. 25 lbs gained innjust a few months? Your a professional athlete, act like one. From Goolds article:

if Marcell Ozuna continues to struggle with his health or Dexter Fowler struggles to produce toward the end of spring. Ozuna has yet to have a hit this spring, and after reporting to camp about 25 pounds heavier has had to get his fitness in the first few weeks of the team's workouts. The Cardinals see Ozuna getting closer to game-ready shape in recent days, though he has yet to be cleared to appear in left field as he continues to recover from shoulder surgery.

Jewish Rabbi

03-06-2019, 10:34 PM

At least we haven’t paid that fucker. Let his ass walk, get the pick, and go O’Neill Bader Carlson in 2020.

Jewish Rabbi

03-06-2019, 10:39 PM

And while disappointing if he doesn’t produce again this year, they gave up jack dick to get him.

bdj23

03-07-2019, 12:11 AM

Fowler needs to be cut.

BigRedChief

03-07-2019, 03:52 AM

I don’t think you can “learn” the strike zone once you got the the show

Kinda like accuracy in footballMy point wasn't about knowing the strike zone, its about our new hitting coach emphasis on recognizing a pitch. Thats different.

We have had an issue for years of our sluggers or mini-sluggers not recognizing the pitch was going to end up way outside or in the dirt and swinging at the pitch.

I've watched the "regulars" in 4 televised spring training games. Saw them in person for 2 additional games. The regulars have mainly batted against MLB pitching. There is a different approach that you can see in how they take their AB's.

Heard a conversation from Goldy to Fowler and Carp saying "remember what the tape says, at the point we got him. Just pay attention to the point". I have no idea what that meant but Carp and Fowler both agreed and nodded in agreement.Any ideas you baseball nerds?

O.city

03-07-2019, 02:23 PM

When will Mike Trout be a free agent?

Not that it will matter to me as a Cardinal fan, just curious in general?

DJ's left nut

03-07-2019, 02:36 PM

When will Mike Trout be a free agent?

Not that it will matter to me as a Cardinal fan, just curious in general?

After 2020.

Don't worry though - we're saving all our dry powder for him and Lindor and Correa and Betts, etc....

O.city

03-07-2019, 03:32 PM

Are they all free agents after 2020?

DJ's left nut

03-07-2019, 03:36 PM

Are they all free agents after 2020?

Man, Mozeliak sure hopes not.

He needs to string fans along for another 3-4 years. If they're all FAs in one season, how can he possibly convince the BFIB that's he's trying really hard for another 3-5 seasons.

Fortunately, those guys are pretty staggered.

BigRedChief

03-07-2019, 05:55 PM

Man, Mozeliak sure hopes not.

He needs to string fans along for another 3-4 years. If they're all FAs in one season, how can he possibly convince the BFIB that's he's trying really hard for another 3-5 seasons.

Fortunately, those guys are pretty staggered.you really think Mo survives 7 years without a playoff win?

Jewish Rabbi

03-10-2019, 12:57 PM

Hamas/DJ,

Thoughts on Gorman? I know he’s a few years away from the show yet but does he project more as a Kris Bryant or Joey Gallo? I pulled a rare rookie card of him and wonder if I should sell now or if the hype is real.

MarkDavis'Haircut

03-10-2019, 07:34 PM

Another year of baseball.

This Pirates fan is ready to talk baseball again. Less ready for Nutting.

'Hamas' Jenkins

03-10-2019, 08:28 PM

Hamas/DJ,

Thoughts on Gorman? I know he’s a few years away from the show yet but does he project more as a Kris Bryant or Joey Gallo? I pulled a rare rookie card of him and wonder if I should sell now or if the hype is real.

He has Gallo level power, rated as high as 80 raw. High K rate at Johnson City, but good BB rate. Average at best 3B defensively. Maybe Troy Glaus.

Jewish Rabbi

03-10-2019, 08:42 PM

He has Gallo level power, rated as high as 80 raw. High K rate at Johnson City, but good BB rate. Average at best 3B defensively. Maybe Troy Glaus.

Thanks

BigRedChief

03-12-2019, 04:24 PM

Pinging DJ/Hamas or anyone rise in the know......watching this player, Dylan Carson this spring. The dude looks like a “player”.

Watching him take swings, run the bases, play the outfield etc he looks like someone who has a high ceiling in the major leagues. I’ve not googled the guy. wondering about my eyeball test. Just watching the guy, he looks to be a keeper.

DJ's left nut

03-12-2019, 08:10 PM

Pinging DJ/Hamas or anyone rise in the know......watching this player, Dylan Carson this spring. The dude looks like a “player”.

Watching him take swings, run the bases, play the outfield etc he looks like someone who has a high ceiling in the major leagues. I’ve not googled the guy. wondering about my eyeball test. Just watching the guy, he looks to be a keeper.

I have mentioned Carlson several times here - dude's a switch-hitting version of the good piscotty.

He's been holding his own while well underaged in brutal hitters leagues. He's stayed under the radar because of that but he's going to wreck shit in the TX league this year and end up on a TON of national lists.

BigRedChief

03-13-2019, 09:50 AM

I have mentioned Carlson several times here - dude's a switch-hitting version of the good piscotty.

He's been holding his own while well underaged in brutal hitters leagues. He's stayed under the radar because of that but he's going to wreck shit in the TX league this year and end up on a TON of national lists.Cool. Great news. :thumb:

VAChief

03-16-2019, 10:24 AM

Hamas/DJ,

Thoughts on Gorman? I know he’s a few years away from the show yet but does he project more as a Kris Bryant or Joey Gallo? I pulled a rare rookie card of him and wonder if I should sell now or if the hype is real.

He’s batting sixth today against the Nats. The game is on MLB network 1pm, 12 central.

VAChief

03-16-2019, 01:11 PM

Gorman hit a bomb in the 7th. Nice looking stroke. Give him 2 more years and I think he will be ready.

O.city

03-19-2019, 08:21 AM

<blockquote class="twitter-tweet" data-lang="en"><p lang="en" dir="ltr">BREAKING: Star center fielder Mike Trout and the Los Angeles Angels are finalizing a record-breaking 12-year contract worth more than $430 million, sources familiar with the deal tell ESPN. Details: <a href="https://t.co/bROnnC11Uh">https://t.co/bROnnC11Uh</a></p>— Jeff Passan (@JeffPassan) <a href="https://twitter.com/JeffPassan/status/1108008799288332289?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">March 19, 2019</a></blockquote>
<script async src="https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js" charset="utf-8"></script>

DJ's left nut

03-19-2019, 08:26 AM

Poor Mozeliak.

How's he ever gonna convince the fans that they were in it 'til the end? He'll have a difficult time selling his usual "we made a competitive offer" schlock this time around.

O.city

03-19-2019, 08:28 AM

So I read thru some of Goold's chat this morning.

Is he a little more high and mighty than usual? Is that a recent thing? Seemed to be pretty snippy about Fowler and someone else who I can't remember.

Also, they're gonna extend Goldschmidt. I would think.

DJ's left nut

03-19-2019, 08:35 AM

So I read thru some of Goold's chat this morning.

Is he a little more high and mighty than usual? Is that a recent thing? Seemed to be pretty snippy about Fowler and someone else who I can't remember.

Also, they're gonna extend Goldschmidt. I would think.

He's been this way for a year or so. I stopped reading Strauss because he just became a raging dickhole in his chats and Goold is going down the same road.

Goold used to be a great source of some under the radar snippets in his chats if you'd read between the lines a bit. Now he mostly just chirps at people who dare question the mighty Mozeliak.

And of course they're going to extend Goldschmidt. If you can think of a stupid thing to do, that's what they'll do. They'll pay a 1b only, RH hitting, high-strikeout slugger who will be 32 when the extension starts $30 million/season through his age 37 season so they can block some combination of Gorman, Montero or Baker into the future.

I'm still dumbfounded that their 'splash' move was a friggen RH hitting 1b. What the fuck is this organization doing?

BigRedChief

03-19-2019, 08:39 AM

So I read thru some of Goold's chat this morning.

Is he a little more high and mighty than usual? Is that a recent thing? Seemed to be pretty snippy about Fowler and someone else who I can't remember.

Also, they're gonna extend Goldschmidt. I would think.Beat reporters are almost worthless these days. They dont "report" anything negative that would effect their access to players or the locker room.

After Matheny is gone its ohh yeah we knew all about his issues with players, he lost Molina, hadn't talked to Fowler in months, his way or the highway approach. Mo and Matheny fought all the time about bullpen usage etc. etc.

Even when they report things like Ozuna showed up at camp 25 lbs heavier or Carlos didn't follow the Cardinals off season workout routine its information fed to them from the front office.

DJ's left nut

03-19-2019, 08:52 AM

Beat reporters are almost worthless these days. They dont "report" anything negative that would effect their access to players or the locker room.

After Matheny is gone its ohh yeah we knew all about his issues with players, he lost Molina, hadn't talked to Fowler in months, his way or the highway approach. Mo and Matheny fought all the time about bullpen usage etc. etc.

Even when they report things like Ozuna showed up at camp 25 lbs heavier or Carlos didn't follow the Cardinals off season workout routine its information fed to them from the front office.

He attacked Saxon pretty good after Saxon's reports in the Athletic that really blew things up. I think Matheny would've made it to the end of the season without those but when that hit the wire, it was all over but the crying.

Then a week after Saxons article, Matheny gets fired and Goold started letting the same stuff slip out.

It was an awful look from him and I haven't really trusted anything he's had to say since.

O.city

03-19-2019, 08:55 AM

Just seemed like he took the company line more than he used to. Oh well.

I enjoy Bernie more, he may not be as connected but I still enjoy him.

I didn't care for his recent article when he seemed to insinuate the goal isn't the division but just staying in and getting a WC spot to say you made the playoffs.

I mean, the teams moves seem to say that though so what do I know.

DJ's left nut

03-19-2019, 08:57 AM

Just seemed like he took the company line more than he used to. Oh well.

I enjoy Bernie more, he may not be as connected but I still enjoy him.

I didn't care for his recent article when he seemed to insinuate the goal isn't the division but just staying in and getting a WC spot to say you made the playoffs.

I mean, the teams moves seem to say that though so what do I know.

That's not anything Bernie or Goold have 'insinuated'.

That's a direct !@#$ing quote from Bill DeWitt. He said in an interview with Goold that their goal is 90 wins.

My friend, that ain't winning you the NL Central.

You don't have to insinuate what the Cardinals goal is. You don't have to extrapolate it from the moves they make. Bill DeWitt has flat out given it to you.

He's won everything there is to win. He's done everything there is to do. Bill DeWitt has no realized that there's more profit in being competitive than there is in doing what it takes to make yourself a championship team. He knew full well that Harper would've pushed them towards the latter but the sunk costs of Fowler plus the cheap production of Martinez and O'Neill can get him to the former. All while making him a lot more money.

This is an easy team to dislike right now.

BigRedChief

03-19-2019, 10:31 AM

He attacked Saxon pretty good after Saxon's reports in the Athletic that really blew things up. I think Matheny would've made it to the end of the season without those but when that hit the wire, it was all over but the crying.

Then a week after Saxons article, Matheny gets fired and Goold started letting the same stuff slip out.

It was an awful look from him and I haven't really trusted anything he's had to say since.Exactly. Thats why the Athletic model may work long term.Its a threat to him and the whole beat writer BS model in baseball. Writers knew Mantle and most every other player in that era was taking speed to get up for games after a night of drinking. They knew about steroid use but said nothing.

Its basic human instinct. If its your job to inform your readers the truth about a team, the bad and good but your worried about your access being taken away, your not going to write the bad stuff that will get you kicked out.

I'm not saying that beat writers should become investigative journalists. Just tell us the big truths that are harming the team. Goold knew all this, He didn't print shit. Saxon didn't worry about being kicked out of the locker room. We found out important information as fans, Thats their basic job. The team is in a better place. Everyone "won" but Matheny, as it should have been.

DJ's left nut

03-19-2019, 10:40 AM

Exactly. Thats why the Athletic model may work long term.Its a threat to him and the whole beat writer BS model in baseball. Writers knew Mantle and most every other player in that era was taking speed to get up for games after a night of drinking. They knew about steroid use but said nothing.

Its basic human instinct. If its your job to inform your readers the truth about a team, the bad and good but your worried about your access being taken away, your not going to write the bad stuff that will get you kicked out.

I'm not saying that beat writers should become investigative journalists. Just tell us the big truths that are harming the team. Goold knew all this, He didn't print shit. Saxon didn't worry about being kicked out of the locker room. We found out important information as fans, Thats their basic job. The team is in a better place. Everyone "won" but Matheny, as it should have been.

Even worse was that he's outright antagonistic towards 'outsiders' at times. When the social media world was coming down hard on Saxon (again) for being racist after Saxon used Fowler's own phraseology (Fowler has referred to his 'swag' in the outfield), Goold threw out a little chirp about how people need to be more careful with their language.

Saxon had numerous conversations with Fowler and had a lighthearted, if not cordial relationship with him. He was using Fowler's own phrasing in a tongue in cheek way and when he got unfairly put on blast, Goold kicked a little dirt in his face while he was on the ground.

It was just a shitty thing to do.

BigRedChief

03-19-2019, 11:34 AM

I think after Hudsons 8 strikeouts in 5 innings yesterday the rotation is set for opening day
Mikolas
Flaherty
Wacha
Waino
Hudson

okay lets talk bullpen. They are going to carry 7 pitchers in the bullpen

Duh Locks:
Reyes
Hicks
Miller
Gant

That leaves 3.
No options to the minors
Schreve
Meyers

Add Brebbia theres your 7

Put on DL to start the season:
Martinez
Gregerson
Cecil

To the AAA rotation:
Gomber
Ponce de leon

I get the BP right?
Reyes
Hicks
Miller
Gant
Schreve
Meyers
Brebbia

VAChief

03-19-2019, 11:51 AM

I think after Hudsons 8 strikeouts in 5 innings yesterday the rotation is set for opening day
Mikolas
Flaherty
Wacha
Waino
Hudson

okay lets talk bullpen. They are going to carry 7 pitchers in the bullpen

Duh Locks:
Reyes
Hicks
Miller
Gant

That leaves 3.
No options to the minors
Schreve
Meyers

Add Brebbia theres your 7

Put on DL to start the season:
Martinez
Gregerson
Cecil

To the AAA rotation:
Gomber
Ponce de leon

I get the BP right?
Reyes
Hicks
Miller
Gant
Schreve
Meyers
Brebbia

Leone could be on there instead of Brebbia or even Mayers. I think Brebbia still has options.

BigRedChief

03-19-2019, 12:25 PM

Leone could be on there instead of Brebbia or even Mayers. I think Brebbia still has options.Mayers has to be there or release him. Leon I thought was viewed as 6th or 7th starter in case of injury, They would put him in AAA to stretch him out. Brebbia has options but viewed as a reliever too.

Having Gomber and Leon ready to step in when Wacha and Waino flame out this season is essential. We all know that its is a "when" situation not "if" they flame out.

jd1020

03-19-2019, 01:28 PM

<blockquote class="twitter-tweet" data-lang="en"><p lang="en" dir="ltr">BREAKING: Star center fielder Mike Trout and the Los Angeles Angels are finalizing a record-breaking 12-year contract worth more than $430 million, sources familiar with the deal tell ESPN. Details: <a href="https://t.co/bROnnC11Uh">https://t.co/bROnnC11Uh</a></p>— Jeff Passan (@JeffPassan) <a href="https://twitter.com/JeffPassan/status/1108008799288332289?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">March 19, 2019</a></blockquote>
<script async src="https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js" charset="utf-8"></script>

Love it.

Scott Boras getting fired for telling players to hold out and losing millions for his clients and now he just gets smashed by $100M in an extension.

VAChief

03-19-2019, 03:36 PM

Mayers has to be there or release him. Leon I thought was viewed as 6th or 7th starter in case of injury, They would put him in AAA to stretch him out. Brebbia has options but viewed as a reliever too.

Having Gomber and Leon ready to step in when Wacha and Waino flame out this season is essential. We all know that its is a "when" situation not "if" they flame out.

You are thinking of Ponce de Leon the starter. I was talking about Dominic Leone the reliever. He has had a decent spring.

BigRedChief

03-19-2019, 03:57 PM

You are thinking of Ponce de Leon the starter. I was talking about Dominic Leone the reliever. He has had a decent spring.Ya I think its between him and Brebbia for the last spot in the bullpen.

'Hamas' Jenkins

03-19-2019, 06:55 PM

Fangraphs just updated their data with pitch framing. Yadi gained ten wins to his WAR and is now the greatest defensive catcher ever by their metrics by a comfortable margin.

I think he just made the HOF

BigRedChief

03-19-2019, 07:02 PM

Fangraphs just updated their data with pitch framing. Yadi gained ten wins to his WAR and is now the greatest defensive catcher ever by their metrics by a comfortable margin.

I think he just made the HOFJust last year we had the first and probably only bench clearing fubar over pitch framing. Molina's so good that a Manager actually complained to an umpire that Molinas pitch framing was too good. That actually happened. I think people in the future will think that’s an urban legend.

MarkDavis'Haircut

03-19-2019, 07:51 PM

Molina better be in the HOF.

Signed a Pirates fan.

bdj23

03-19-2019, 08:23 PM

Molina better be in the HOF.

Signed a Pirates fan.

No way he isn't short of a PED bust or getting Pete Rose'd

DJ's left nut

03-20-2019, 07:21 AM

Fangraphs just updated their data with pitch framing. Yadi gained ten wins to his WAR and is now the greatest defensive catcher ever by their metrics by a comfortable margin.

I think he just made the HOF

But they didn't add anything to anyone who played prior to 2008. Their data can't go back any further than that.

So yeah, Yadi's defensive runs above average spiked way ahead of some guys like Carter and Boone, but that's because Carter and Boone didn't get any adjustment at all. Pudge only got a small one for his waning years and he's still not too far behind Molina after Molina got essentially a 150 run kicker; nearly doubled his career numbers.

I think this does a lot to contextualize things going forward and will help provide a more balanced playing field for catchers in the future. But I'm not sure what use it gives us historically if it doesn't provide the same adjustments for players who played prior to 2008.

DJ's left nut

03-20-2019, 07:49 AM

So I was kinda thinking out loud a bit this morning and was directed to Ozzie Smith as an obvious HoF 'peak defense, tolerable offense' HoF player. And my immediate reaction was to say "yeah, that seems about right"

But then I thought on it a little more and frankly, Ozzie's offense, though paltry and ineffective by today's standards, was actually pretty decent for the bulk of his career given his era. He made a ton of contact, stole bases and scored runs. He was an above average offensive player who was good at a style of game unique to the era. Moreover, Ozzie set the standard for defense at ANY position and I don't think he's been met since. I believe Ozzie Smith was the single greatest defensive player in baseball history.

Molina's offense for the majority of his career has been somewhat in line with the style at the time but I don't believe it's been as valuable to this era as Ozzies was to his era. Moreover, while Yadi may be among the best defensive catchers ever, I don't believe he is head and shoulders above a handful of contenders (as Ozzie is) nor do I believe he ranks with Ozzie as a purely transformational defensive player.

So by that review, I'd say he's the same kind of player and a similar analysis as Ozzie Smith...but not quite as good. Okay, so lets use the transitive property here. If 80% of Ozzie Smith = Yadier Molina, what's 80% of Ozzie Smith in a historic context?

Well damn...that's really really easy. That's Omar Vizquel.

Omar has 11 gold gloves, was the peak defender of his era, could be a complementary offensive player on a championship caliber ballclub, was a great leader and consummate professional. He's remarkably comparable to Molina if you're willing to consider across positions. And Omar is PROBABLY gonna make the Hall. It's gonna take some time, but he'll probably get there.

But it's not exactly a cinch. Even after this adjustment, Yadi remains firmly in the 'will probably get there after some effort' camp, IMO. And I'm not sure I agree with that conclusion (I think he should go in after maybe 2-3 years; not the 6-8 it could well take), but when you see what the voters are doing, I think that's probably what will happen.

O.city

03-20-2019, 07:52 AM

Off topic a little , but Ozzie was actually one of my first words as a baby. Dad's always been a bit of an obsessed cardinal fan so it was pretty natural.

He has a lot of connections at KMOX so we used to go sit in the KMOX box when I was tiny and theyd sit me on the counter to watch Ozzie.

We always went to a weekend series for my bday and i'd get to take a couple friends. We'd go out and eat at his restaurant. Sucks that it's not there anymore and I have no clue if the food was actually good.

Marcellus

03-21-2019, 02:42 PM

Cards are close to an extension with Goldschmidt on an extension for around 5 yrs $110MM.

Doesn't sound too bad really.

On a bizarre note, Fowler homered 2 times today and Ozuna had a HR.

O.city

03-21-2019, 02:44 PM

<blockquote class="twitter-tweet" data-lang="en"><p lang="en" dir="ltr">Paul Goldschmidt and <a href="https://twitter.com/hashtag/cardinals?src=hash&ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">#cardinals</a> closing in on five-year extension worth around $130 million, according to source. <a href="https://twitter.com/Ken_Rosenthal?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">@Ken_Rosenthal</a> had sides were close.</p>— Derrick Goold (@dgoold) <a href="https://twitter.com/dgoold/status/1108831545018728448?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">March 21, 2019</a></blockquote>
<script async src="https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js" charset="utf-8"></script>

Jewish Rabbi

03-21-2019, 02:54 PM

DJ meltdown in 3...2...1...

Megatron96

03-21-2019, 02:54 PM

So I'm new to CP, and I just found this thread. As a lifetime Cards fan (dad took me to my first game 45 years ago) I was wondering:

How do we feel about the Goldy signing (here in AZ everyone calls him Goldy), is he enough to get us over the hump? Also, what's our starting rotation looking like at this point? Realistically what are our chances of doing anything in the playoffs?

Oh, and Yady is HOFer for sure. The best defensive catcher in my lifetime.

O.city

03-21-2019, 02:55 PM

The worry is that you're paying for his decline years, while Arizona got the best of him.

Marcellus

03-21-2019, 03:17 PM

<blockquote class="twitter-tweet" data-lang="en"><p lang="en" dir="ltr">Paul Goldschmidt and <a href="https://twitter.com/hashtag/cardinals?src=hash&ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">#cardinals</a> closing in on five-year extension worth around $130 million, according to source. <a href="https://twitter.com/Ken_Rosenthal?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">@Ken_Rosenthal</a> had sides were close.</p>— Derrick Goold (@dgoold) <a href="https://twitter.com/dgoold/status/1108831545018728448?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">March 21, 2019</a></blockquote>
<script async src="https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js" charset="utf-8"></script>

Meh, I liked it much better at $110MM.

raybec 4

03-21-2019, 03:21 PM

So I was kinda thinking out loud a bit this morning and was directed to Ozzie Smith as an obvious HoF 'peak defense, tolerable offense' HoF player. And my immediate reaction was to say "yeah, that seems about right"

But then I thought on it a little more and frankly, Ozzie's offense, though paltry and ineffective by today's standards, was actually pretty decent for the bulk of his career given his era. He made a ton of contact, stole bases and scored runs. He was an above average offensive player who was good at a style of game unique to the era. Moreover, Ozzie set the standard for defense at ANY position and I don't think he's been met since. I believe Ozzie Smith was the single greatest defensive player in baseball history.

Molina's offense for the majority of his career has been somewhat in line with the style at the time but I don't believe it's been as valuable to this era as Ozzies was to his era. Moreover, while Yadi may be among the best defensive catchers ever, I don't believe he is head and shoulders above a handful of contenders (as Ozzie is) nor do I believe he ranks with Ozzie as a purely transformational defensive player.

So by that review, I'd say he's the same kind of player and a similar analysis as Ozzie Smith...but not quite as good. Okay, so lets use the transitive property here. If 80% of Ozzie Smith = Yadier Molina, what's 80% of Ozzie Smith in a historic context?

Well damn...that's really really easy. That's Omar Vizquel.

Omar has 11 gold gloves, was the peak defender of his era, could be a complementary offensive player on a championship caliber ballclub, was a great leader and consummate professional. He's remarkably comparable to Molina if you're willing to consider across positions. And Omar is PROBABLY gonna make the Hall. It's gonna take some time, but he'll probably get there.

But it's not exactly a cinch. Even after this adjustment, Yadi remains firmly in the 'will probably get there after some effort' camp, IMO. And I'm not sure I agree with that conclusion (I think he should go in after maybe 2-3 years; not the 6-8 it could well take), but when you see what the voters are doing, I think that's probably what will happen.

And TLR dumped Ozzie for Royce Clayton

bdj23

03-21-2019, 03:22 PM

The worry is that you're paying for his decline years, while Arizona got the best of him.

We the Angels now!

DJ's left nut

03-21-2019, 03:25 PM

The worry is that you're paying for his decline years, while Arizona got the best of him.

Which was always the reason I hated this trade when it was made. I knew they were pot committed and I knew that would be their 'splash' - trying to build around a defensively limited and aging slugger.

It just doesn't work out well for teams. You don't build your team around 1b on the wrong side of 30, it simply doesn't work.

Megatron96

03-21-2019, 03:30 PM

The worry is that you're paying for his decline years, while Arizona got the best of him.

I don't know if that's the case here. A big reason (according to the analysts here) that Goldy didn't have the production of the previous year was that he didn't have anyone that could reliably get on base in front of him. If he gets some protection in the line-up I think he'll be pretty good. It's not like he's old, and he's never had a serious injury, just some inflammation in his elbow that one time.

And even with the lack of help last year I think he hit close to .300 (I believe it was .290 or .295 or something). Plus he knows how to get a hit in big games, which might be helpful in the playoffs if we make it that far.

He's never been a big team leader guy, but I don't think the Cards are asking that of him either. So if all he has to do is play his game, and he gets some consistency in front of him I really believe he'll get back to his previous form.

BigRedChief

03-21-2019, 04:42 PM

Cards are close to an extension with Goldschmidt on an extension for around 5 yrs $110MM.

Doesn't sound too bad really.

On a bizarre note, Fowler homered 2 times today and Ozuna had a HR.

<blockquote class="twitter-tweet" data-lang="en"><p lang="en" dir="ltr">Paul Goldschmidt and <a href="https://twitter.com/hashtag/cardinals?src=hash&ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">#cardinals</a> closing in on five-year extension worth around $130 million, according to source. <a href="https://twitter.com/Ken_Rosenthal?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">@Ken_Rosenthal</a> had sides were close.</p>— Derrick Goold (@dgoold) <a href="https://twitter.com/dgoold/status/1108831545018728448?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">March 21, 2019</a></blockquote>
<script async src="https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js" charset="utf-8"></script>like DJ has said, in today’s FA market, the best you can hope for is a fair deal for both sides. Looks to be at market value.

We don’t have any 1B minor leaguers he’d block so, why not?

'Hamas' Jenkins

03-21-2019, 04:43 PM

So I was kinda thinking out loud a bit this morning and was directed to Ozzie Smith as an obvious HoF 'peak defense, tolerable offense' HoF player. And my immediate reaction was to say "yeah, that seems about right"

But then I thought on it a little more and frankly, Ozzie's offense, though paltry and ineffective by today's standards, was actually pretty decent for the bulk of his career given his era. He made a ton of contact, stole bases and scored runs. He was an above average offensive player who was good at a style of game unique to the era. Moreover, Ozzie set the standard for defense at ANY position and I don't think he's been met since. I believe Ozzie Smith was the single greatest defensive player in baseball history.

Molina's offense for the majority of his career has been somewhat in line with the style at the time but I don't believe it's been as valuable to this era as Ozzies was to his era. Moreover, while Yadi may be among the best defensive catchers ever, I don't believe he is head and shoulders above a handful of contenders (as Ozzie is) nor do I believe he ranks with Ozzie as a purely transformational defensive player.

So by that review, I'd say he's the same kind of player and a similar analysis as Ozzie Smith...but not quite as good. Okay, so lets use the transitive property here. If 80% of Ozzie Smith = Yadier Molina, what's 80% of Ozzie Smith in a historic context?

Well damn...that's really really easy. That's Omar Vizquel.

Omar has 11 gold gloves, was the peak defender of his era, could be a complementary offensive player on a championship caliber ballclub, was a great leader and consummate professional. He's remarkably comparable to Molina if you're willing to consider across positions. And Omar is PROBABLY gonna make the Hall. It's gonna take some time, but he'll probably get there.

But it's not exactly a cinch. Even after this adjustment, Yadi remains firmly in the 'will probably get there after some effort' camp, IMO. And I'm not sure I agree with that conclusion (I think he should go in after maybe 2-3 years; not the 6-8 it could well take), but when you see what the voters are doing, I think that's probably what will happen.

Yadi has a career wRC+ of 100, Vizquel is 83. Over the last 19 years, MLB average for catchers is 84 and 95 for SS. So, while Molina is 19 percent more productive than positional average, Vizquel is 12.6 percent worse. There is a large offensive gap between the two.

'Hamas' Jenkins

03-21-2019, 04:44 PM

like DJ has said, in today’s FA market, the best you can hope for is a fair deal for both sides. Looks to be at market value.

We don’t have any 1B minor leaguers he’d block so, why not?

We do, they are just playing third right now.

BigRedChief

03-21-2019, 04:54 PM

We do, they are just playing third right now.im not going to get worked up about this signing as long as they don’t act like this was the equivlent of signing Harper etc. you could see this coming from the moment the trade was announced.

he’s a good player but needs other bats around him. He’s not carrying a team. We are going to need more offense from somewhere.

duncan_idaho

03-21-2019, 06:43 PM

like DJ has said, in today’s FA market, the best you can hope for is a fair deal for both sides. Looks to be at market value.

We don’t have any 1B minor leaguers he’d block so, why not?

Gorman and Montero are both candidates to have to move across the diamond to 1B.

BigRedChief

03-21-2019, 07:44 PM

Gorman and Montero are both candidates to have to move across the diamond to 1B.not anymore.....:D

DJ's left nut

03-21-2019, 08:20 PM

like DJ has said, in today’s FA market, the best you can hope for is a fair deal for both sides. Looks to be at market value.

We don’t have any 1B minor leaguers he’d block so, why not?

We absolutely do. In addition to Gorman and Montero, there's Baker and possibly Torres.

Locking up 1b with the most expensive contract on your team is just incredibly stupid, especially on an extension that doesn't even start until 32.

This entire sequence has been wrong-headed from the start.

oldandslow

03-22-2019, 06:51 AM

We absolutely do. In addition to Gorman and Montero, there's Baker and possibly Torres.

Locking up 1b with the most expensive contract on your team is just incredibly stupid, especially on an extension that doesn't even start until 32.

This entire sequence has been wrong-headed from the start.

And he will still outhit Harper next year and the year after that and the year after that.....as well as play better defense for less money. By the time he hits 34 we will turn him into Big Pappy west. And one of those fine first base prospects can take over.

I really like your posts DJ on this board and at birdsonthebat, but your man-love for Harper has blinded you on this one.

duncan_idaho

03-22-2019, 08:44 AM

And he will still outhit Harper next year and the year after that and the year after that.....as well as play better defense for less money. By the time he hits 34 we will turn him into Big Pappy west. And one of those fine first base prospects can take over.

I really like your posts DJ on this board and at birdsonthebat, but your man-love for Harper has blinded you on this one.

Want to bet?

I’m with DJ. Harper is going to do huge things in Philadelphia and they’re never going to force him into CF, so his defensive value won’t take the hit it did the 2 years the Nats did that.

DJ's left nut

03-22-2019, 09:59 AM

Want to bet?

I’m with DJ. Harper is going to do huge things in Philadelphia and they’re never going to force him into CF, so his defensive value won’t take the hit it did the 2 years the Nats did that.

And if his defense slides in the OF, give him an offseason and he'll be every bit the defensive 1b Goldschmidt already is. He's simply a better athlete.

He has faaaaar further to fall on the defensive spectrum than Goldschmidt does. Even if he continues to struggle in RF, you still have LF to go before you need to worry about making the 1b conversion. Harper's overall athleticism would likely translate to a plus defensive LFer; something similar to what Ozuna was billed as.

BigRedChief

03-22-2019, 03:41 PM

We absolutely do. In addition to Gorman and Montero, there's Baker and possibly Torres.

Locking up 1b with the most expensive contract on your team is just incredibly stupid, especially on an extension that doesn't even start until 32.

This entire sequence has been wrong-headed from the start.I'm with you on Dewitt's approach is not the one I'd take. Going for 90 wins and a WC is not winning baseball. Mo's FA signings flop way more than hit.

But that being said, You act like we got another Gyrko level guy. He's a golden glover. An All-Star. Going to give us 5.5+ WAR. He runs the bases well. By all accounts has a great attitude and work ethic. We gave up spare parts for the guy. If he went to FA next year, he'd be the #1 FA on the market. The FA market money is stupid money. Who are we going to get better than him in FA in the next two years?

I really like your posts DJ on this board and at birdsonthebat, but your man-love for Harper has blinded you on this one.I had the man-love for Harper too. I said we should have gave him $350 million/10 and wrote off another $50 million for Fowler to go away. I've tried so many times to get into birdsonthebat and the admins never let me in. Has to be personal. :)

And if his defense slides in the OF, give him an offseason and he'll be every bit the defensive 1b Goldschmidt already is. He's simply a better athlete.

He has faaaaar further to fall on the defensive spectrum than Goldschmidt does. Even if he continues to struggle in RF, you still have LF to go before you need to worry about making the 1b conversion. Harper's overall athleticism would likely translate to a plus defensive LFer; something similar to what Ozuna was billed as.Ozuna is gone next year. Fowler sucks. Carp is going to be a year older. All those players you mentioned are not ready for the majors yet. What were they supposed to do besides sign Harper? We had to get some more offensive production in the lineup. Most of what I've read says its a reasonable deal in today market.

BigRedChief

03-23-2019, 10:25 AM

Goldschmidt's contract starts next year. We have him locked in for the next 6 years. Ages 31-36. AAV of $24.1 million salary for the 6 years.

'Hamas' Jenkins

03-23-2019, 10:31 AM

Goldschmidt's contract starts next year. We have him locked in for the next 6 years. Ages 31-36. AAV of $24.1 million salary for the 6 years.

That's not good.

The best move they've made this spring is actually the Wieters signing.

BigRedChief

03-24-2019, 08:04 AM

That's not good.Why? Everything I've read says it was a good to fair deal.
The best move they've made this spring is actually the Wieters signing. I wanted Harper. Didn't happen. Besides that move, what would you have done to get some offense into the lineup?

Marcellus

03-24-2019, 08:34 AM

Why? Everything I've read says it was a good to fair deal.
I wanted Harper. Didn't happen. Besides that move, what would you have done to get some offense into the lineup?

There is nothing wrong with the deal other than they didn't get a Harper or Machato type younger player.

Goldy is the top ranked 1st basemen in MLB for FB, at $24MM per its cheap.

O.city

03-24-2019, 08:39 AM

I guess the whole “we don’t want to sign a player to a deal that goes into his mid 30 decline years “ talk about why they wouldn’t d a long term one with Harper or machado was all talk

VAChief

03-24-2019, 08:47 AM

Why? Everything I've read says it was a good to fair deal.
I wanted Harper. Didn't happen. Besides that move, what would you have done to get some offense into the lineup?

I wanted Harper as well. I do think this deal helps us. I hate the DH, but if it is coming to the NL then our young corner infield prospects will have room to ascend.

bdj23

03-24-2019, 08:59 AM

:harumph:DH in the NL

'Hamas' Jenkins

03-24-2019, 09:07 AM

Why? Everything I've read says it was a good to fair deal.
I wanted Harper. Didn't happen. Besides that move, what would you have done to get some offense into the lineup?

Would you rather pay 25 million in AAV for Paul Goldschmidt's decline years or 25 million in AAV for Bryce Harper's prime and then his decline years?

There were ways to make this all work out great, but this team in not well run.

The Sonny Corleone move would be to give Harper whatever he wants
The Fredo Corleone move would be to sign a 32 yo 1B to a five year extension
The Micheal Corleone move would be to sign Harper and give Goldschmidt a shorter deal with a higher AAV.

There is no fucking way he would get 5/130 in FA w/ a QO attached to him. None.

This team is not intelligent. They routinely overpay for players on the wrong side of 30 (Fowler, Cecil, now Goldschmidt) and piss away millions on contracts for the most volatile and fungible players in baseball--middle relievers.

Gregerson+Cecil+Miller will be lucky to give the Cardinals 1.5 WAR this year, and they'll cost as much as Bryce Harper.

VAChief

03-24-2019, 09:47 AM

Would you rather pay 25 million in AAV for Paul Goldschmidt's decline years or 25 million in AAV for Bryce Harper's prime and then his decline years?

There were ways to make this all work out great, but this team in not well run.

The Sonny Corleone move would be to give Harper whatever he wants
The Fredo Corleone move would be to sign a 32 yo 1B to a five year extension
The Micheal Corleone move would be to sign Harper and give Goldschmidt a shorter deal with a higher AAV.

There is no ****ing way he would get 5/130 in FA w/ a QO attached to him. None.

This team is not intelligent. They routinely overpay for players on the wrong side of 30 (Fowler, Cecil, now Goldschmidt) and piss away millions on contracts for the most volatile and fungible players in baseball--middle relievers.

Gregerson+Cecil+Miller will be lucky to give the Cardinals 1.5 WAR this year, and they'll cost as much as Bryce Harper.

Sure, mostly agree, and I would add letting Pham go was idiotic. I still like having Goldy than not, despite thinking Harper was a better option both need wise and financially.

DJ's left nut

03-24-2019, 10:14 AM

Goldschmidt's contract starts next year. We have him locked in for the next 6 years. Ages 31-36. AAV of $24.1 million salary for the 6 years.

You don't get to count year 1 - that's an independent question.

They're paying $26 million/yr for a guy who can only play 1b (and eventually - sigh - DH), who hits RH and who's strikeout rate is going in the wrong direction. That's a very common problem for players approaching a dip in production in their early 30s, especially if they start to see issues with chase rates.

DJ's left nut

03-24-2019, 10:18 AM

Would you rather pay 25 million in AAV for Paul Goldschmidt's decline years or 25 million in AAV for Bryce Harper's prime and then his decline years?

There were ways to make this all work out great, but this team in not well run.

The Sonny Corleone move would be to give Harper whatever he wants
The Fredo Corleone move would be to sign a 32 yo 1B to a five year extension
The Micheal Corleone move would be to sign Harper and give Goldschmidt a shorter deal with a higher AAV.

There is no fucking way he would get 5/130 in FA w/ a QO attached to him. None.

This team is not intelligent. They routinely overpay for players on the wrong side of 30 (Fowler, Cecil, now Goldschmidt) and piss away millions on contracts for the most volatile and fungible players in baseball--middle relievers.

Gregerson+Cecil+Miller will be lucky to give the Cardinals 1.5 WAR this year, and they'll cost as much as Bryce Harper.

Possibility A is that they're not intelligent.
Possibility B is that they are, and their interests don't align with yours.

The 'Michael Corleone' move you suggest is certainly the best way to win a championship. But it's probably not cost-effective for a franchise that already puts 3 million in the stadium. Don't get me wrong - they won't lose money or anything close to it had they made that move. But they won't make as much.

I don't think they're unintelligent - I think they're willing to toss red-meat to the ill-informed masses so they can saw 'we tried' in a manner that doesn't create as many long-term liabilities. They're plenty smart, but they are putting that brainpower to making the most money possible, not winning the most games possible.

Dewitt admitted it when he said their goal is to win 90 games. This team doesn't care as much about winning as they used to and that's a difficult thing for us to get our minds around.

'Hamas' Jenkins

03-24-2019, 10:49 AM

Possibility A is that they're not intelligent.
Possibility B is that they are, and their interests don't align with yours.

The 'Michael Corleone' move you suggest is certainly the best way to win a championship. But it's probably not cost-effective for a franchise that already puts 3 million in the stadium. Don't get me wrong - they won't lose money or anything close to it had they made that move. But they won't make as much.

I don't think they're unintelligent - I think they're willing to toss red-meat to the ill-informed masses so they can saw 'we tried' in a manner that doesn't create as many long-term liabilities. They're plenty smart, but they are putting that brainpower to making the most money possible, not winning the most games possible.

Dewitt admitted it when he said their goal is to win 90 games. This team doesn't care as much about winning as they used to and that's a difficult thing for us to get our minds around.

They could literally spend the same amount of money by not changing middle relievers, though. I have no doubt they care about profit, but even if that's all they care about they're still going about it the wrong way because they could spend the same amount of money and have a team that could win five more games at a minimum.

DJ's left nut

03-24-2019, 10:54 AM

They could literally spend the same amount of money by not changing middle relievers, though. I have no doubt they care about profit, but even if that's all they care about they're still going about it the wrong way because they could spend the same amount of money and have a team that could win five more games at a minimum.

Gotta convince the fans you're trying, though.

And when the team loses ballgames in the late innings because their manager is a dipshit, they could just say "the bullpen was bad" and convince the rubes by signing Brett Cecil.

As for Andrew Miller...well, you may be right there. I have no earthly idea how the team that watched Cecil fall apart before their eyes and Holland completely implode, not to mention the demise of Gregerson after he was ridden so hard, can look at Miller and thing "well this time it will be different"

The Miller signing is one of the best examples of not learning from your mistakes you'll ever see. Best guess I have is that the 2 year deal was short enough to pique their interest.

BigRedChief

03-25-2019, 03:51 AM

We do, they are just playing third right now.

Gorman and Montero are both candidates to have to move across the diamond to 1B.I get that but its my understanding they are 2-3 years away, correct? We are just supposed to accept having sub par defenders and 1 bat position at those two offensive positions?

BigRedChief

03-25-2019, 03:53 AM

You don't get to count year 1 - that's an independent question.

They're paying $26 million/yr for a guy who can only play 1b (and eventually - sigh - DH), who hits RH and who's strikeout rate is going in the wrong direction. That's a very common problem for players approaching a dip in production in their early 30s, especially if they start to see issues with chase rates.I think the NL will have the DH in two years as part of the new CBA, so thats not going to be an issue.

BigRedChief

03-25-2019, 04:09 AM

Would you rather pay 25 million in AAV for Paul Goldschmidt's decline years or 25 million in AAV for Bryce Harper's prime and then his decline years?.I wanted to pay Harper up to $400 million. I'm sure the posts will be easy to find. I was all in on Harper. Sucked it looks like we didnt even really try or he want interested in St. Louis? Either way, it didnt happen. Now what? Just put the same offense out there again that missed the playoffs 3 years in a row?
Gregerson+Cecil+Miller will be lucky to give the Cardinals 1.5 WAR this year, and they'll cost as much as Bryce Harper.Irrelevant. Mo has made some bad deals, no, alot of bad deals. He needs to go. I'm with DJ on this, he stays because he's making money hand over fist for the Dewitts.They have two recent WS Championships, They are way too comfortable and "safe" with their FA's. That said......

I'm not going to beat them up on the money spent on salary as long as the Cardinals remain in the top 10 salary teams in baseball. We are never getting into the top 5. I think its a reasonable expectation to spend between the #5-#10 teams in baseball. We are there. Our issue has been spending it on the wrong players. Cecil, Fowler, Holland, Gregerson etc.

BigRedChief

03-25-2019, 04:39 AM

Langoush: STLCards rotation in Milwaukee will be as follows:

Mikolas (Thurs.)
Flaherty (Fri.)
Hudson (Sat.)
Wacha (Sun.)
That sets Wainwright up to start in Pittsburgh on Monday.
Flaherty draws the home opener at Busch Stadium.

VAChief

03-25-2019, 07:05 AM

Langoush: STLCards rotation in Milwaukee will be as follows:

Mikolas (Thurs.)
Flaherty (Fri.)
Hudson (Sat.)
Wacha (Sun.)
That sets Wainwright up to start in Pittsburgh on Monday.
Flaherty draws the home opener at Busch Stadium.

That looks like about like what I would have hoped. Matheny probably would have started Wainright in the opener.

Jewish Rabbi

03-25-2019, 08:08 AM

That looks like about like what I would have hoped. Matheny probably would have started Wainright in the opener.

Not that it makes a difference over the course of the season, but I’m surprised Hudson is starting the season in the 3 spot.

VAChief

03-25-2019, 08:55 AM

Not that it makes a difference over the course of the season, but I’m surprised Hudson is starting the season in the 3 spot.

Yes, somewhat, although that could just be about looking at match ups. Third/fourth starters or pretty interchangeable. It could also be about giving different looks in your rotation. He gives a slightly different look sandwiched between Flaherty and Wacha.

bdj23

03-25-2019, 10:19 AM

That looks like about like what I would have hoped. Matheny probably would have started Wainright in the opener.

I wish I could say I enjoyed Wainos last opening day start.

BigRedChief

03-25-2019, 10:29 AM

Not that it makes a difference over the course of the season, but I’m surprised Hudson is starting the season in the 3 spot.I watched Hudson's last two appearances and he looked great.

ntexascardfan

03-25-2019, 10:30 AM

I watched Hudson's last two appearances and he looked great.

I took Hudson in the last round of my fantasy league draft. He's listed as an RP in the Yahoo leagues.

Suffice it to say I'm pretty pumped about that pick.

VAChief

03-26-2019, 01:34 PM

CBS MLB top 100 player list for coming season...Always a lot to critique...Bryce Harper at 42? Josh Donalson at 62? Cardinals on the list, DeJong, Flaherty, Mikolas, Goldy, Carp and Molina show up. Pham and Piscotty as well. What a stupid move the Pham deal continues to be both financially and talent wise.

V\https://www.cbssports.com/mlb/news/top-100-mlb-players-mike-trout-ahead-of-the-pack-aaron-judge-jacob-degrom-crack-top-10-heading-into-2019-season/

BigRedChief

03-26-2019, 01:40 PM

Spring training is over. The roster is set. Go on the record. What’s our record this year?

I’m going with 92-80. Wild card berth.

Figure that Schilt should get us 2 more wins and Goldy gets us two more wins.

Cubs win the Central. Brewers and Cards are the WC’s.

O.city

03-26-2019, 01:41 PM

Spring training is over. The roster is set. Go on the record. What’s our record this year?

I’m going with 92-80. Wild card berth.

Figure that Schilt should get us 2 more wins and Goldy gets us two more wins.

Cubs win the Central. Brewers and Cards are the WC’s.

Did they add some games to the schedule this year?

bdj23

03-26-2019, 01:43 PM

Spring training is over. The roster is set. Go on the record. What’s our record this year?

I’m going with 92-80. Wild card berth.

Figure that Schilt should get us 2 more wins and Goldy gets us two more wins.

Cubs win the Central. Brewers and Cards are the WC’s.

Something between 89-92 wins and a wildcard spot.

Pasta Little Brioni

03-26-2019, 01:45 PM

CBS MLB top 100 player list for coming season...Always a lot to critique...Bryce Harper at 42? Josh Donalson at 62? Cardinals on the list, DeJong, Flaherty, Mikolas, Goldy, Carp and Molina show up. Pham and Piscotty as well. What a stupid move the Pham deal continues to be both financially and talent wise.

V\https://www.cbssports.com/mlb/news/top-100-mlb-players-mike-trout-ahead-of-the-pack-aaron-judge-jacob-degrom-crack-top-10-heading-into-2019-season/

Fuck Turdy

Marcellus

03-26-2019, 01:47 PM

Did they add some games to the schedule this year?

Those other 10 games are playoff games. :D

'Hamas' Jenkins

03-26-2019, 01:52 PM

The Pham deal cost the team the second WC last year and will hamstring them again this year. Mo will give 5/25 to any 2-3 WAR n00b and told Pham to fuck himself. He's a clown

VAChief

03-26-2019, 02:03 PM

**** Turdy

You can troll all you want, he was costing us peanuts, played decent defense, and delivering solid power and on base numbers. If Mo had any balls we would have Pham, Bader and ONeill in the outfield this year costing us pennies.

BigRedChief

03-26-2019, 08:20 PM

So we have 1 other fan go on the record? Bunch of wimps.:harumph:

Jewish Rabbi

03-26-2019, 08:41 PM

So we have 1 other fan go on the record? Bunch of wimps.:harumph:

I predict they will play fewer than 172 regular season games.

raybec 4

03-26-2019, 09:53 PM

87-90 wins, that glass rotation will never hold up

BigRedChief

03-26-2019, 10:22 PM

87-90 wins, that glass rotation will never hold upmaybe, but I’d still take our overall pitching over the Cubs and Brewers.

VAChief

03-27-2019, 04:42 AM

I would put the over under at 86.5. The NL Central could be brutal this year...no easy wins/series.

Marcellus

03-27-2019, 07:06 AM

94 wins. Bank it. Mainly based on better defense and relief. Offense and starting pitching just needs to be on par with last season.

Didn't the bullpen give up 70 leads last season? We didn't lose all the games they lost a lead in but that's a horrendous stat.

BigRedChief

03-27-2019, 07:34 AM

I would put the over under at 86.5. The NL Central could be brutal this year...no easy wins/series.Again, maybe, but I’d still take our overall pitching over the Cubs and Brewers. Go visit the Cubs boards, they are sooo unhappy with their club not doing something about their pitching. Their owner not spending money while making money hand over fist from the team and all the shit he's built by the ball park. Sound familiar? Their owner has publicly said we don't have money to spend.

Brewer fans are upset that their bullpen is going to ruin their season. Pissed off at ownership for not at least attempting to fix that issue that everyone sees as their weakness.

94 wins. Bank it. Mainly based on better defense and relief. Offense and starting pitching just needs to be on par with last season.

Didn't the bullpen give up 70 leads last season? We didn't lose all the games they lost a lead in but that's a horrendous stat.We all know Martizez is heading to to the bullpen when he returns. Our bullpen besides Hicks sucked most of the year, they had their moments but mostly gave up may too many leads. Martinez/Hicks/Miller/Reyes is the most talented bullpen in baseball. Period. If they perform to their talent level, and stay healthy, they will add at least 4 more wins this year.

Prison Bitch

03-27-2019, 07:37 AM

Prospectus final

Beer makers 87
Cards 86
Red Men 80
Pilates 80
Cubbie Bears 79 mega-lollers

BigRedChief

03-27-2019, 08:00 AM

Prospectus final

Beer makers 87
Cards 86
Red Men 80
Pilates 80
Cubbie Bears 79 mega-lollersROFL how in the fuck is that even possible?

O.city

03-27-2019, 08:17 AM

Lotta things are gonna have to break right for them to get above 92, hell probably even 88ish.

I don't know that I see it. They have a terrible horrible track record of signing relievers so I don't know that the bullpen will be much improved.

VAChief

03-27-2019, 08:27 AM

Again, Go visit the Cubs boards, they are sooo unhappy with their club not doing something about their pitching. Their owner not spending money while making money hand over fist from the team and all the shit he's built by the ball park. Sound familiar? Their owner has publicly said we don't have money to spend.

Brewer fans are upset that their bullpen is going to ruin their season. Pissed off at ownership for not at least attempting to fix that issue that everyone sees as their weakness.

We all know Martizez is heading to to the bullpen when he returns. Our bullpen besides Hicks sucked most of the year, they had their moments but mostly gave up may too many leads. Martinez/Hicks/Miller/Reyes is the most talented bullpen in baseball. Period. If they perform to their talent level, and stay healthy, they will add at least 4 more wins this year.

I get it, I think we are improved over the 88 win team last year. I'm a homer and will always think we have a chance, what fun is it to think otherwise?

However you ask me to look at objective projections I think that 87 wins is pretty legit. Now I think our pitching upside exceeds that of the other teams in the division, however our floor (due to innings limitations, injuries) is lower than say the Cubs.

When you see every team in the division with a legitimate shot at a .500 or better record, that is a factor you have to consider when looking at how many wins you are going to get.

DJ's left nut

03-27-2019, 08:34 AM

Again, Go visit the Cubs boards, they are sooo unhappy with their club not doing something about their pitching. Their owner not spending money while making money hand over fist from the team and all the shit he's built by the ball park. Sound familiar? Their owner has publicly said we don't have money to spend.

The Cubs have something like 45% of their payroll plowed into their starting rotation and 3 guys each making over $20 million. That doesn't even speak to Hendricks new deal or the money they torched on Chatwood (or the prospect capital they plowed into Quintana). Cubs fans can be as pissed as they want but the Cubs shot their bullets. This was the approach they favored for a half decade when they were throwing all their draft capital at offense with an eye on buying their pitching staff.

I don't actually disagree with the approach given the volatility of pitching, but Cubs fans have little to bitch about. It isn't as though the Cubs haven't tried damn hard to address that rotation/bullpen.

Brewer fans are upset that their bullpen is going to ruin their season. Pissed off at ownership for not at least attempting to fix that issue that everyone sees as their weakness.

Their bullpen was in great shape until injuries happened - there's only so much you can do when 2/3 of the back half of your bullpen goes down during training camp.

We all know Martizez is heading to to the bullpen when he returns. Our bullpen besides Hicks sucked most of the year, they had their moments but mostly gave up may too many leads. Martinez/Hicks/Miller/Reyes is the most talented bullpen in baseball. Period. If they perform to their talent level, and stay healthy, they will add at least 4 more wins this year.

If they put Martinez AND Reyes in their bullpen they have done so much to blunt their top competitive advantage that they'd deserve the 86 win regular season that comes of it. They absolutely have to figure out a way for Martinez and Reyes to be in that starting rotation by the ASB. You run a starting 5 of Flaherty, Mikolas, Martinez, Reyes and....me....and you'd have among the most dynamic rotations in baseball. With the potential of Hudson and even Wacha as your 5th starter, you have a better than average chance of winning 2/3 of your games down the stretch.

The starting pitching has to get healthy and break right for them to do any damage. If their plan is to put 2 of the 3 most electric arms in their system in short relief roles, the organization is just as stupid as I thought it was.

I'd put the over/under at 88.5 and barely take the over at 89.

O.city

03-27-2019, 08:37 AM

Surely to god they know not to put Reyes in the pen longer than enough time to build up his arm, right?

Same with Martinez.

DJ's left nut

03-27-2019, 08:45 AM

Surely to god they know not to put Reyes in the pen longer than enough time to build up his arm, right?

Same with Martinez.

They need to send Reyes back to Memphis to build up his service tim...I mean, arm strength.

He needs 65 days in the minors for the Cardinals to get back one of the years of service time they torched with 2 years of retarded handling of him. It still burns me to no end that Mozeliak didn't just take him of the 60 day, option him to Memphis and let him pitch there. By 'saving' a 40 man spot to protect someone they didn't need anyway, they kept him on the 25 man roster while he rehabbed and then when he got injured he burned yet ANOTHER season of MLB service time.

He's ripped through 2+ years of cheap service time while rehabbing injuries that he shouldn't have even been on the damn MLB roster for. At least option his ass back down and get one of those back by only using about 60% of a season this year. Now you still have 4 years of control when the season is done. It's what they should've done last season coming off his previous injury to ensure they still had 5 at the beginning of this year and then they could've used him to their heart's content.

But Mozeliak is functionally retarded so this won't happen.

Reyes is headed right down the Alan Benes path of being ground to hamburger and/or otherwise completely wasted.

BigRedChief

03-27-2019, 08:57 AM

Surely to god they know not to put Reyes in the pen longer than enough time to build up his arm, right?

Same with Martinez.I'm assuming they put Reyes in the bullpen to save innings. Expect him to pitch 2-3 innings backing up Waino or Wacha.

Also hoping the plan is......After the All-Star break go down to AAA and get stretched out to start a playoff game. Like DJ said, Reyes in the bullpen is a waste of talent.

Now Martinez obviously has problems with focusing. Maybe he has severe ADD or some other issue thats not publicly disclosed but whatever it is, when he is focused he can be one of the most dominate pitchers in baseball. When he's not, he's below average.

Because of his mental approach on the mound, maybe the bullpen is the right spot for him. Same issue we have with Carp batting lead off. For whatever reason, we have to bat him lead-off if we want that high level production.

BigRedChief

03-27-2019, 09:04 AM

They need to send Reyes back to Memphis to build up his service tim...I mean, arm strength.

He needs 65 days in the minors for the Cardinals to get back one of the years of service time they torched with 2 years of retarded handling of him. It still burns me to no end that Mozeliak didn't just take him of the 60 day, option him to Memphis and let him pitch there. By 'saving' a 40 man spot to protect someone they didn't need anyway, they kept him on the 25 man roster while he rehabbed and then when he got injured he burned yet ANOTHER season of MLB service time.

He's ripped through 2+ years of cheap service time while rehabbing injuries that he shouldn't have even been on the damn MLB roster for. At least option his ass back down and get one of those back by only using about 60% of a season this year. Now you still have 4 years of control when the season is done. It's what they should've done last season coming off his previous injury to ensure they still had 5 at the beginning of this year and then they could've used him to their heart's content.

But Mozeliak is functionally retarded so this won't happen.

Reyes is headed right down the Alan Benes path of being ground to hamburger and/or otherwise completely wasted.Heard this point on a podcast when he got injured last year. Forget which podcast but they said the Cardinals couldnt do what you are talking about to stop service time because the contract Reyes signed. That many of the elite players have similiar contracts, injury cant stop the service time from ticking.

No idea if true or not, it was a podcast.

DJ's left nut

03-27-2019, 10:16 AM

Heard this point on a podcast when he got injured last year. Forget which podcast but they said the Cardinals couldnt do what you are talking about to stop service time because the contract Reyes signed. That many of the elite players have similiar contracts, injury cant stop the service time from ticking.

No idea if true or not, it was a podcast.

It's not accurate.

All signing a major league contract earlier in your career does is force teams to start burning up your options immediately (that's what happened with Drew). It forces teams to give guys a shot a little earlier which increases their earning potentially immensely when they get through their 6 years for FA. We know Reyes didn't sign a Major League contract when he first came into the Cardinals organization because we can confirm that he still has all 3 option years intact. So that path is irrelevant.

So if he has options, he can be sent down. If he can be sent down, he won't accumulate major league service time and if he doesn't accumulate the requisite 6 years of major league service time he CANNOT be a major league free agent.

The only thing that could change that is a contract similar to what Mikolas or Cespedes signed where the team that signed him is contractually prohibited from tendering him a salary when he is arbitration eligible. Mikolas, by rule, shouldn't have been a FA after this season but because his deal with the Cardinals prohibited them from offering him a tender, he'd have been a FA anyway. Oh was the same way.

Reyes, as an amateur FA, could've never negotiated a deal like that and if he did we'd have damn sure known about it before now because he's already burned 2 of his 3 pre-arb seasons and would theoretically be in his FA season this year.

Whoever said that is just flat-ass wrong and if it were accurate, you wouldn't see someone like Vlad Jr having his service time fucked with right now. Or Eloy Jimenez. Or Acuna last season. All of those guys were much more highly regarded prospects when signed than Reyes was.

They're just wrong. The best argument they can make is a technical one -that INJURY can't stop it. That's technically right for any player. It's right for all MLB players regardless of contract. But that's not my point - my point is that you're not citing injury here. You're expressly taking him off the 60 day. You're saying he's sound but that he needs to go to the minors to be stretched out.

The Cardinals actually believed that last season. They kept him on the 60 day DL as a roster mechanism to avoid having to clear the additional 40 man spot. But they didn't believe he was still hurt. They could've taken him off the 60 day, activated him to the 40 man and then simply used an option year to 'stretch him out to start'. That has absolutely nothing to do with injury and he'd have no grounds to contest a service time issue. And then when he would've gotten hurt down there he'd have already been optioned off the 25 man so his service time wouldn't have continued to run while in the minors.

The Cardinals had a clear path here but they fucked up.

Marco Polo

03-27-2019, 10:19 AM

Responsible contracts — including Paul Goldchmidt’s — have the Cardinals set up nicely for the future

By Bernie Miklasz (https://theathletic.com/author/bernie-miklasz/) Mar 25, 2019

By acquiring first baseman Paul Goldschmidt and signing him to a five-year contract extension, the Cardinals seem to reaffirmed their “Win Now!” philosophy for 2019. That became a popular media meme during the final days of spring training.

I find this interesting for multiple reasons.

If 2019 is about winning now, then what about 2018, 2017 and 2016? The Cardinals missed the playoffs in all three seasons. Why not try to “Win Now” when approaching every season?
The Cardinals are a smart, efficient, well-run organization with vast financial resources and a healthy supply of prospects.

As far as I can tell, nothing prevented the Cardinals from making bold trades in recent seasons. The front office was free to make any move that inspired them into action.
And isn’t the Goldschmidt deal more of an example of jumping at an opportunity to secure a superb all-around player?

When a talent of Goldschmidt’s magnitude is available, you take advantage of the opportunity. Especially when the price — sending pitcher Luke Weaver, catcher Carson Kelly and a minor-league infielder to Arizona — was a fairly pain-free exchange that didn’t reduce the Cardinals’ chances of returning to the playoffs in 2019.

This was a proverbial no-brainer, not a seismic shift in philosophy. I don’t think this translated into a “Win Now” move; it translates into a winning move, a common-sense move.

How many Goldschmidt-type players surface on the trade market? And given the terms of this trade, how could the Cardinals possibly say no?

Acquiring Goldschmidt was an obvious addition, but I give Cardinals chairman Bill DeWitt Jr. and president of baseball operations John Mozeliak credit for backing up the trade by quickly signing Goldy to the contract extension.

Not that they had much of a choice. You don’t bring Goldschmidt here for a year, then let him stroll away. Convincing Goldschmidt to stay with the Cardinals beyond 2019 didn’t profile as an arduous challenge — it’s a natural fit — but it’s always a mistake to take these things for granted. The Cardinals got it done, and that’s what counts.

Kudos.

Here’s the more fascinating part — at least for me, anyway …

For all of the talk about winning now, this new Goldschmidt/Cardinals partnership is about setting up the Cardinals for a potentially special future.

Sure, Goldy can help the Cardinals accomplish their goals in 2019. But by securing him as their first baseman through 2024 — and at a reasonable cost — the Cardinals are poised for sustained success. But only if they’re adept, and aggressive at building their team around him.

Goldschmidt will make $14.5 million this season in the final year of the last contract he signed with Arizona. The five-year extension for $130 million begins in 2020, and the Cardinals will pay Goldy an average of just more than $24 million over the next six seasons.

That affordable deal does not crush or squeeze the payroll. The Cardinals are in no danger of entering luxury-tax hell. Goldy’s annual compensation leaves plenty of space for safe payroll maneuvering.
That applies to the summer of 2019. The current St. Louis payroll sits at $159.4 million, according to Spotrac. That projected number can easily accommodate additional salaries should the Cardinals decide to get busy and strengthen troublesome roster spots via trade.

Beyond that, the Cardinals are looking at a phase of enviable cost certainty. Goldschmidt helped; he didn’t insist on breaking the bank.

Let’s walk through this, shall we?

(Note: The salary data for the basic payroll information came from Spotrac.)

Starting pitching

The Cardinals’ five-man rotation will cost $29.2 million this season. That’s truly economical, representing about 18.7 percent of the total team payroll for 2019. In the National League, 11 teams have a higher percentage of payroll dollars tied up in their starting pitching than St. Louis this season.

The Cubs are spending more on starting pitching than any team in the majors: $100.345 million, or 48 percent of their payroll.

Wait, there’s more: Spotrac included Carlos Martinez in the Cards’ rotation, and his salary for 2019 is $11.7 million. But suppose Martinez — when healthy — pitches out of the bullpen?

If Martinez isn’t included, the five-man rotation of Miles Mikolas, Jack Flaherty, Dakota Hudson, Michael Wacha and Adam Wainwright would cost $18.2 million.

For perspective, digest this: The Cubs are paying three starters — individually — $20 million or more this season (Jon Lester, Yu Darvish, Cole Hamels).

Overall, Spotrac projects the Cardinals to allocate $56 million on pitching this season for a workable 35 percent of the payroll. And even if Martinez ends up starting, the Cardinals will have a cost-efficient rotation. They’ll be pouring less money into their rotation than multiple hopeless teams, including the Kansas City Royals.

This could be interpreted another way: The Cardinals could have pumped more cash into their 2019 rotation. And perhaps they will, if an urgent need arises during the season.

The rotation may cost even less in 2020; Wacha and Wainwright can become free agents after this season. (Mikolas, however, is set to make $17 million a year through 2023 when his new contract goes online next season.)

There are no onerous contracts here.

What the Cardinals have, for the most part, are young starters lined up who won’t be eligible for free agency for several years.

John Gant can head to free agency in 2023. Jack Flaherty and prime reliever Jordan Hicks won’t become free agents until 2024. Dakota Hudson, Austin Gomber and Daniel Ponce de Leon are eligible for free agency in 2025.
If Carlos Martinez fades, the Cardinals can get out of his contract after the 2021 season. (More on that later.)

And this trend will likely continue, as the Cardinals have other young starters in development. And with so much pitching, there won’t be enough big-league jobs for all of the arms. Not a problem. Teams covet young pitching in trades, and the Cardinals will have assets to peddle.

The low cost of their starting pitching obviously gives this team flexibility to funnel resources into other parts of the team. Or, for that matter, to acquire or sign an expensive veteran starting pitcher to join the young arms. (Think of Houston’s late-season trade for Justin Verlander in 2017.)

Few long-term obligations

Let’s go through this, year by year.

After the 2019 season

Eligible for free agency: Left fielder Marcell Ozuna, starting pitchers Wacha and Wainwright and backup catcher Matt Wieters.
Options: The Cardinals can pay third baseman Matt Carpenter $18.5 million in 2020 or decline and pay a $2 million buyout. Infielder Jedd Gyorko has a $13 million salary for 2020 that can be terminated with a $1 million buyout.
Guaranteed payroll commitments for 2020: an estimated $132 million, including the lofty salaries for Goldschmidt and Mikolas.
After the 2020 season

Eligible for free agency: Catcher Yadier Molina and lefty reliever Brett Cecil.
Options: Second baseman Kolten Wong is due $12.5 million in 2021 unless the Cardinals pay a $1 million buyout. The Cards have a $12.5 million option on lefty reliever Andrew Miller. The option automatically kicks in if Miller pitches 110 combined innings over the 2019 and ‘20 seasons. If the option doesn’t vest, the Cardinals can buy out Miller for $2.5 million.
Guaranteed payroll commitments for 2021: approximately $79 million.
After the 2021 season

Eligible for free agency: Outfielder Dexter Fowler and righty reliever Dominic Leone.
Options: The Cardinals have a $17 million option on Carlos Martinez for 2022, then another option ($18 million) for 2023. But it would be easy for the team to walk away from both seasons by paying an affordable ($500,000) buyout after the 2021 season.
Guaranteed payroll commitments for 2022: an estimated $49.6 million.
After the 2022 season

Free agents: Pitchers Alex Reyes and Gant.
Options: If the Cardinals pick up the option on Carlos Martinez for 2022, they can decline the $18 million option for 2023 at no cost (no buyout necessary).
Guaranteed payroll commitments for 2023: about $52 million.
Rather than go deeper into this, I’ll summarize a couple of other situations in the distant future.

Center fielder Harrison Bader can become a free agent after the 2023 season.

Off in the horizon is shortstop Paul DeJong, who is under contract through at least 2023 as part of a six-year, $26 million deal signed last year. DeJong averages an affordable $6.5 million over the final three seasons of that contract, and the Cardinals will have to make a call on his $12.5 million option for 2024 (buyout: $2 million). If the Cardinals stay with DeJong in ‘24, they’ll have a $15 million option on him for 2025 that can be terminated with a $1 million.

As you can see, the Cardinals have a rather large canvas to work with over the next several years. The only substantial contracts of any real length belong to Goldschmidt and Mikolas. And maybe DeJong if the Cardinals ride with him through 2025.

In future years, the collection of young pitching will keep the payroll in check. But the Cardinals are also looking at a parade of outfielders and third basemen making their way to Busch Stadium in due time.

According to the evaluations by MLB Pipeline at MLB.com, 13 of the Cardinals’ top 30 prospects are pitchers (including Reyes and Hudson).

Seven are outfielders. Three are third basemen. (The big name there is power-hitting third baseman Nolan Gorman, the team’s No. 2 prospect.) And catcher Andrew Knizner (No. 3) is widely viewed as Molina’s successor; that made it easy to include Carson Kelly in the Goldschmidt deal.

Goldschmidt noticed the abundance of young talent around him during spring training.

“I think (the talent level) just confirmed what I saw from the outside,” Goldschmidt told Jen Langosch of MLB.com. “I remember last year (watching) the Cardinals (and noticing), there was a little bit of a turnover from where it went from being a little older team to a lot of really young guys.

“This team has the opportunity to be good for the next five or six years, because all these guys have only been in the big leagues for one year or two years. They’re guys who are still under contract for a couple years. The organization has potentially set itself up to be successful.”

And the Cardinals’ new first baseman is a big part of that. Since Albert Pujols last manned first base for the Cardinals — in Game 7 of the 2011 World Series — the team has started 20 different players at first base. Only two started 100 or more games at first base in a season: Matt Adams in 2014 and Carpenter in 2017.

The first-base carousel is shutting down. Except for the occasional off-day, Goldy can be counted on to handle first base for the next six seasons.

In his seven full seasons for Arizona, he started 150 or more games five times, and averaged 145 starts per year.

Now that they’ve finally ended the chaos at first base, the Cardinals can shift their focus to other positions in the effort to “Win Now.”

And “Win For A Long Time.”

Goldschmidt’s contract — and his presence — can make a real difference. But only if the front office can take advantage of the Goldschmidt years, the young pitching and the payroll flexibility that opens a myriad of possibilities.

Marco Polo

03-27-2019, 10:25 AM

I'm going to predict 90 wins. I can't wait until next week; my 9th opening day in the last 11 years (living outside of Missouri in all but three of them).

Marcellus

03-27-2019, 03:01 PM

The Cardinals have won between 83 and 88 games each of these past three disappointing seasons. That’s a terrible place to be stuck, left out of the playoffs with a mediocre draft position to look forward to. The hope is that Goldschmidt nudges them back into 90-plus-win territory, which won’t be easy in an improved division.

But Goldschmidt seems like the guy for the job. He has been, arguably, the best player in the National League since 2013, with a .301/.406/.541 slash line, a 149 wRC+ and 33 WAR. The last Cardinal to consistently post 5 fWAR a season was Pujols, who hasn’t reached 4 fWAR since he went to Anaheim. Pujols was a year older than Goldschmidt when he played his first game for the Angels, and his deal was four years longer and cost Halos owner Arte Moreno an extra $110 million.

:hmmm:

DJ's left nut

03-27-2019, 03:44 PM

:hmmm:

Dude.

When one of the 3 worst deals in baseball history is the bar you're trying to clear, I wouldn't get too terribly excited if you manage it.

Marcellus

03-27-2019, 05:16 PM

Dude.

When one of the 3 worst deals in baseball history is the bar you're trying to clear, I wouldn't get too terribly excited if you manage it.

When you add in the cost of inflation since Pujols signed his deal and the contracts we have seen this offseason there is no way to reasonably argue Goldy isn't a bargain.

BigRedChief

03-27-2019, 06:04 PM

When you add in the cost of inflation since Pujols signed his deal and the contracts we have seen this offseason there is no way to reasonably argue Goldy isn't a bargain.and if needed, Goldy can move to DH when the new CBA starts in 2022.

BigRedChief

03-27-2019, 07:55 PM

It's not accurate.figured it was BS. Thanks for the info.

BigRedChief

03-27-2019, 07:59 PM

Responsible contracts — including Paul Goldchmidt’s — have the Cardinals set up nicely for the future

Goldschmidt’s contract — and his presence — can make a real difference. But only if the front office can take advantage of the Goldschmidt years, the young pitching and the payroll flexibility that opens a myriad of possibilities.Bernie is right. The opportunity is there to have a window to compete for a title again. Executing it will be crucial. Mo hasn't exactly covered himself in glory lately.

After visiting other fan sites and seeing what the are bitching about, I'm more hopeful for this year and the future.

DJ's left nut

03-27-2019, 08:43 PM

When you add in the cost of inflation since Pujols signed his deal and the contracts we have seen this offseason there is no way to reasonably argue Goldy isn't a bargain.

He isn't.

But his deal is fair. The cardinals will get what they paid for, give or take a bit.

If you expect the Matt Holliday Cardinal arc, you probably won't be too disappointed.

Prison Bitch

03-27-2019, 09:13 PM

Estimation of Gold future value:

Jay Jaffe: 155m
Cardinals GM: 130m
Zymborski’s ZiPS: 119m

So his contract seems normal.

(https://blogs.fangraphs.com/cardinals-and-goldschmidt-catch-extension-fever/

VAChief

03-28-2019, 04:49 AM

He isn't.

But his deal is fair. The cardinals will get what they paid for, give or take a bit.

If you expect the Matt Holliday Cardinal arc, you probably won't be too disappointed.

Matt Holliday was who I was thinking, minus the frying pan hands on defense.

He should produce regular season numbers.

Marco Polo

03-28-2019, 07:00 AM

I actually loved the Goldy trade and extension. One thing that cannot be stated enough but hard to put into metrics is leadership. He will provide that and build a better culture. Gone are the days of Heyward and Matheny. I really wish we would've signed Harper to that exact contract and there are years to prove me wrong. That could've been a huge statement to our division for years to come.

BigRedChief

03-28-2019, 07:42 AM

Matt Holliday was who I was thinking, minus the frying pan hands on defense.

He should produce regular season numbers.Even Carp over there wasn't bad, below average. But, acceptable when he returned to his old offensive self after the early season slump. I'm sure we will now have a +DRS at 1B.
I actually loved the Goldy trade and extension. One thing that cannot be stated enough but hard to put into metrics is leadership. He will provide that and build a better culture. Gone are the days of Heyward and Matheny.Players need to know where they stand. Not be lied to by the manager. If I'm a player, even if you were not friends with Fowler, you have to think when am I next? You see "his guys" playing over obviously more talented players, that has to be demotivating. I think thats worth 2 wins, at least.
I really wish we would've signed Harper to that exact contract and there are years to prove me wrong. That could've been a huge statement to our division for years to come.Agreed. Was very disappointed they didn't make Harper say no.

bdj23

03-28-2019, 10:31 AM

1. Matt Carpenter (L) - 3B
2. Paul Goldschmidt (R) - 1B
3. Paul DeJong (R) - SS
4. Marcell Ozuna (R) - LF
5. Yadier Molina (R) - C
6. Dexter Fowler (S) - RF
7. Kolten Wong (L) - 2B
8. Harrison Bader (R) - CF
9. Miles Mikolas (R) - P

RHP Miles Mikolas

Brewers (0-0)

1. Lorenzo Cain (R) - CF
2. Christian Yelich (L) - RF
3. Ryan Braun (R) - LF
4. Travis Shaw (L) - 3B
5. Jesus Aguilar (R) - 1B
6. Mike Moustakas (L) - 2B
7. Yasmani Grandal (S) - C
8. Orlando Arcia (R) - SS
9. Jhoulys Chacin (R) - P

RHP Jhoulys Chacin

First lineup of the season! Let the bitching begin!

Marcellus

03-28-2019, 10:38 AM

1. Matt Carpenter (L) - 3B
2. Paul Goldschmidt (R) - 1B
3. Paul DeJong (R) - SS
4. Marcell Ozuna (R) - LF
5. Yadier Molina (R) - C
6. Dexter Fowler (S) - RF
7. Kolten Wong (L) - 2B
8. Harrison Bader (R) - CF
9. Miles Mikolas (R) - P

RHP Miles Mikolas

Brewers (0-0)

1. Lorenzo Cain (R) - CF
2. Christian Yelich (L) - RF
3. Ryan Braun (R) - LF
4. Travis Shaw (L) - 3B
5. Jesus Aguilar (R) - 1B
6. Mike Moustakas (L) - 2B
7. Yasmani Grandal (S) - C
8. Orlando Arcia (R) - SS
9. Jhoulys Chacin (R) - P

RHP Jhoulys Chacin

First lineup of the season! Let the bitching begin!

If Mikolas hits Braun square in the face with a 95mph fastball today he might become my favorite Cardinal ever.

https://binged.it/2FAxe3X

O.city

03-28-2019, 11:08 AM

So all this talk about the Cardinals farm system and pitching, is it actually good or is that just Cards talk spin?

DJ's left nut

03-28-2019, 11:11 AM

1. Matt Carpenter (L) - 3B
2. Paul Goldschmidt (R) - 1B
3. Paul DeJong (R) - SS
4. Marcell Ozuna (R) - LF
5. Yadier Molina (R) - C
6. Dexter Fowler (S) - RF
7. Kolten Wong (L) - 2B
8. Harrison Bader (R) - CF
9. Miles Mikolas (R) - P

RHP Miles Mikolas

First lineup of the season! Let the bitching begin!

Fine place to start. The team is, sadly, hell-bent on giving Fowler a chance and if you're going to do so, that's not a bad place to put him while trying to minimize his damage during his tryout period. If his OBP comes back, you can move him up a bit, if the OBP doesn't come back but he at least recaptures some of the thump he had during '17, then the 6 spot ahead of the lefty in Wong is also a pretty decent spot.

Bader's exactly where he should be against righties unless/until he shows some ability to lay off breaking balls in the dirt. Wong is a wild card until he isn't.

That's a good lineup. For now.

DJ's left nut

03-28-2019, 11:14 AM

So all this talk about the Cardinals farm system and pitching, is it actually good or is that just Cards talk spin?

It's deep. It doesn't have the high end, top of the rotation kind of prospects it did just a year or two ago, but there are a lot of bodies to throw at problems as they arise.

It's the same way in the OF.

bdj23

03-28-2019, 11:15 AM

Also, wtf? LG doesn't support MLB.tv anymore? Wish they would have told me that before they automatically renewed my subscription.

O.city

03-28-2019, 11:18 AM

It's deep. It doesn't have the high end, top of the rotation kind of prospects it did just a year or two ago, but there are a lot of bodies to throw at problems as they arise.

It's the same way in the OF.

That was kind of my take on it. I also think "Deep" sometimes is code for meh. and not much separation.

The pitching high end guys are hopefully just now getting to the big club so that should help.

DJ's left nut

03-28-2019, 11:20 AM

That was kind of my take on it. I also think "Deep" sometimes is code for meh. and not much separation.

The pitching high end guys are hopefully just now getting to the big club so that should help.

When you're talking hitters I will agree that 'deep' often means 'meh'.

But with pitching, quantity has a quality of its own. Guys get hurt and relievers are volatile as hell. When you know that 1 or 2 guys you counted on in the bullpen will likely be ineffective and another 1 or 2 guys in your rotation will likely be injured/ineffective at some point, having 3-4 guys that you trust to come in and be league average is huge.

Especially when league average starting pitching cost $12-$14 million/season and 8th inning guys cost $8-9 million.

duncan_idaho

03-28-2019, 11:20 AM

So all this talk about the Cardinals farm system and pitching, is it actually good or is that just Cards talk spin?

It’s good but don’t think it has a bunch of obvious high-end/high-upside talent.

Gorman and Nunez could be star hitters but are really far away from the show.

DJ's left nut

03-28-2019, 11:26 AM

It’s good but don’t think it has a bunch of obvious high-end/high-upside talent.

Gorman and Nunez could be star hitters but are really far away from the show.

With Gorman, Montero, Nunez and Torres the Cardinals have the best group of young hitting prospects they've had since I started following the system closely.

Now you can generally guess that 1/2 of those guys will wash out entirely and at least one of the other ones will disappoint. But when you have 4 guys with potential 5 win bats parked in the low minors, you really like your odds of getting at least one impact hitter out of that lot.

It's pretty far removed from the days where we had Drew down there and were waiting on him. Then Rasmus. Then Taveras. We have usually had one premier hitting prospect in our low minors that we followed with baited breath in the hopes that they develop perfectly. Then we'd get to overrating someone like Evan Mendoza and calling him a possible All-Star. Right now we have numbers we can throw at it and that's a biiiiiig difference. A guy like Mendoza is someone that a honk such as myself says "man, just see if you can get some solid innings at SS with him, pump his value in the Tx league and trade his ass for a lefty reliever with a couple years of control..."

This system could explode up the rankings next season if even 2 of those guys do well in full-season ball (or a taste of a full season level), especially if Carlson puts himself into the top 50 conversation as I expect he will.

O.city

03-28-2019, 11:33 AM

Thanks guys.

The rate at which they can't develop bats has been fun to see. On opposite day.

Prison Bitch

03-28-2019, 12:28 PM

No system has ever had four 5-win bats in it