Your offseason historical quarterback ranker - subject to random updates.

[Rain Man]

Just for fun, I went back and looked at quarterback performance throughout NFL history. I was interested in identifying periods of quarterback dominance.

So I created a measure of quaterback performance that is in equal part based on effectiveness (yards/attempt, completion %, interception %), and pure production (passing yards, total touchdowns, and starts). Starts is because some statistics get scarce as we go backwards through time.

My measure ranks quarterbacks in each category, but it also accounts for their performance relative to other quarterbacks in the league. So for example, if a quarterback has a slightly higher interception percentage than the league average, but throws for far more yards, that quarterback will get a higher score.

I'll present a table to you of the top ten quarterbacks in the league in 2018, and I'll add to it by year as the offseason drags on. I'm hoping that it'll create some discussion.

So without further ado, here are the top ten rankings for 2018. It'll get more interesting as I add more years.

[Rain Man]

Sorry. Can't seem to make the picture bigger. I'll try something else.

[Rain Man]

Here's the Excel File if you can open it. It only has the top ten of 2018 right now, and I'll keep uploading new copies as we go.

[Flying High D]

Asshole isn’t even the top 10.

[Rain Man]

Asshole isn’t even the top 10.

One of the more interesting findings, I agree. Especially when we start tracing back through the years.

(I'm assuming you're referring to Brady since Manning is no longer in the league.)

[Flying High D]

Bingo

[Shaid]

Really the Pats are just masters of situational football. Waste clock at the right time, make sure to get the score before the half, etc.

[ChiefBlueCFC]

Asshole isn’t even the top 10.

Matt Cassel?

[Rain Man]

Okay, now we add 2017 totals.

What is notable here is that not a single quarterback was in the top 5 both years, and only six quarterbacks make the top ten both years. None of those six was in the top three in either year, which tells us that, based on our initial data, the truly outstanding years may be outliers.

Also, only one team had a top three quarterback both years, and you'll never guess which team.

[DJ's left nut]

Speaking of - shouldn't we be getting a Franchise Index update soon or have I missed the bump?

[Rain Man]

Speaking of - shouldn't we be getting a Franchise Index update soon or have I missed the bump?

Oh, good point. I was waiting until the season ended.

[Beef Supreme]

Everyone wants a ranker quarterback.

[Rain Man]

Let's add 2016 now. At this point I'll start highlighting patterns whenever I find them interesting.

What we see here is that three quarterbacks have made the top ten all year. Kirk Cousins, interestingly, is one of them, though he's usually toward the bottom of the list. Phillip Rivers is consistently productive, and Drew Brees has consistently been in the top six quarterbacks in the league over the past three years.

Aaron Rodgers likely would have been the fourth quarterback on this list, but he got sidelined by injury in 2017. And Luck is oddly on the list twice even though I thought he'd been injured for about five years prior to 2018.

[King_Chief_Fan]

What?
No Keesum?

[bowener]

Let's add 2016 now. At this point I'll start highlighting patterns whenever I find them interesting.

What we see here is that three quarterbacks have made the top ten all year. Kirk Cousins, interestingly, is one of them, though he's usually toward the bottom of the list. Phillip Rivers is consistently productive, and Drew Brees has consistently been in the top six quarterbacks in the league over the past three years.

Aaron Rodgers likely would have been the fourth quarterback on this list, but he got sidelined by injury in 2017. And Luck is oddly on the list twice even though I thought he'd been injured for about five years prior to 2018.

I did a few quick changes to make it an easy image to view for those that can't download things at work.

[Rain Man]

I did a few quick changes to make it an easy image to view for those that can't download things at work.

Oh, that's nice, much easier to read than mine. Thanks! I've been struggling a bit with presentation because I'm going to go back 98 seasons, so it gets overwhelming. That's part of why I'm presenting it in this buildup style.

[bowener]

Oh, that's nice, much easier to read than mine. Thanks! I've been struggling a bit with presentation because I'm going to go back 98 seasons, so it gets overwhelming. That's part of why I'm presenting it in this buildup style.

Obviously it is up to you, but if you are doing a ranked list I would go with the most recent year first and work your way backward.

I made a reformatted version of yours and ran it out to 1900.

I couldn't upload an .xlsx file so I changed the version save. I'm not sure if it messed up any formatting.

[Rain Man]

Let's step back another year and see what's happening.

We see that Drew Brees is really good and consistent, first of all. He's usually a top-five guy.

We see that Tom Brady used to be really good, and now he's washed up.

Phillip Rivers is consistently a top ten guy, but he never shoots the moon.

Kirk Cousins is consistently a top ten guy, but just enough to lose in the playoffs.

Russell Wilson's star is falling.

[Rain Man]

We'll add 2014 now, and the analysis theme is bouncy quarterbacks.

Whether by injury or performance, three long-touted quarterbacks show us that on any given set of 16 Sundays they might be a top quarterback, but you can't count on them.

Aaron Rodgers, Ben Roethlisberger, and Andrew Luck were three of the top four quarterbacks in 2014, but that was five seasons ago. In the four seasons since then, they've each had only one top-five season, another one lower in the top ten, and two where they are absent from the top ten list. These quarterbacks can be dangerous, but the odds at this point are that they won't carry their team far, or at least not predictably.

And yeah, there's Drew Brees in the top five again. I have severely underrated how consistently good he is.

[Rain Man]

I've added 2012 and 2013 to the list now, and let's look at the careers of the quarterbacks who were drafted in those years.

We had early runs by Robert Griffin, Nick Foles, and Andrew Luck, but those were outliers for them. Luck re-emerged this year, but Russell Wilson and Kirk Cousins have been steady top-ten performers once they got themselves established. It just took them both three years to climb into the top ten.

[Misplaced_Chiefs_Fan]

From reviewing what you've posted here, Rain Man, the top ten has been rather consistent with only a few outliers:

Brees: 7 times (18,17,16,15,14,13,12)
Rivers: 6 times (18,17,15,14,13)
Ryan: 5 times (18,16,14,13,12)
Stafford: 5 times (17,16,15,13,12)
Rothlesburger: 4 times (18,17,14,13)
Rodgers: 4 times (18,16,14,12)
Cousins: 4 times (18,17,16,15)
Wilson: 3 times (18,17,15)
Manning E: 3 times (15,14,12)
Manning P: 3 times (14,13,12)*
Romo: 3 times (14,13,12)*
Luck: 2 times (18,14)

* = retired

It's obvious that Rodgers and Luck's absences coincide with their injuries. E. Manning is definitely showing a drop off.

The rest have been rather consistent for the past seven years. Which also might show why their teams are "normally" competitive for the playoffs (the Lion's being the big exception there -- San Diego/LA has been close a lot lately.)

Interesting to do analysis like this.

[Tombstone RJ]

What?
No Keesum?

I know, right?

[Rain Man]

From reviewing what you've posted here, Rain Man, the top ten has been rather consistent with only a few outliers:

Brees: 7 times (18,17,16,15,14,13,12)
Rivers: 6 times (18,17,15,14,13)
Ryan: 5 times (18,16,14,13,12)
Stafford: 5 times (17,16,15,13,12)
Rothlesburger: 4 times (18,17,14,13)
Rodgers: 4 times (18,16,14,12)
Cousins: 4 times (18,17,16,15)
Wilson: 3 times (18,17,15)
Manning E: 3 times (15,14,12)
Manning P: 3 times (14,13,12)*
Romo: 3 times (14,13,12)*
Luck: 2 times (18,14)

* = retired

It's obvious that Rodgers and Luck's absences coincide with their injuries. E. Manning is definitely showing a drop off.

The rest have been rather consistent for the past seven years. Which also might show why their teams are "normally" competitive for the playoffs (the Lion's being the big exception there -- San Diego/LA has been close a lot lately.)

Interesting to do analysis like this.


It's interesting, because I draw a somewhat different conclusion. In seven years of data, only seven guys show up more than half the time, and only two guys show up in 80 percent of years. It tells me that there's a lot of variation in quarterback performance from year to year, even if there's some obvious slotting of quarterbacks. As you mentioned, some of that is certainly due to injuries, though.

[Rain Man]

I added the 2010 and 2011 data in the enclosed file, and today we'll take a look at the quarterbacks from those draft classes. It almost makes feel better about Matt Cassel.

These are the quarterbacks who were drafted in 2010 and 2011, along with their draft slot. In the 8 or 9 years since they were drafted, only two of these guys have ever been in the top ten quarterbacks on a particular year - Cam Newton did it twice, never ranking higher than 7th, and Andy Dalton somehow managed a 4th-ranked year once, never to sniff it again. That's a lot of draft capital to be spent for no dominating seasons.

1 Cam Newton Panthers
1 Sam Bradford Rams
8 Jake Locker Titans
10 Blaine Gabbert Jaguars
12 Christian Ponder Vikings
25 Tim Tebow Broncos
35 Andy Dalton Bengals
36 Colin Kaepernick 49ers
48 Jimmy Clausen Panthers
74 Ryan Mallett Patriots
85 Colt McCoy Browns
122 Mike Kafka Eagles
135 Ricky Stanzi Chiefs
152 T.J. Yates Texans
155 John Skelton Cardinals
160 Nathan Enderle Bears
168 Jonathan Crompton Chargers
176 Rusty Smith Titans
180 Tyrod Taylor Ravens
181 Dan LeFevour Bears
199 Joe Webb Vikings
204 Tony Pike Panthers
208 Greg McElroy Jets
209 Levi Brown Bills
239 Sean Canfield Saints
250 Zac Robinson Patriots

[Rain Man]

In 2008 and 2009, these guys were drafted.

1 Matthew Stafford Lions
3 Matt Ryan Falcons
5 Mark Sanchez Jets
17 Josh Freeman Buccaneers
18 Joe Flacco Ravens
44 Pat White Dolphins
56 Brian Brohm Packers
57 Chad Henne Dolphins
94 Kevin O'Connell Patriots
101 Stephen McGee Cowboys
137 John David Booty Vikings
151 Rhett Bomar Giants
156 Dennis Dixon Steelers
160 Josh Johnson Buccaneers
162 Erik Ainge Jets
171 Nate Davis 49ers
174 Tom Brandstater Broncos
178 Mike Teel Seahawks
186 Colt Brennan Redskins
196 Keith Null Rams
198 Andre' Woodson Giants
201 Curtis Painter Colts
209 Matt Flynn Packers
223 Alex Brink Texans

As you'll see in the file, Ryan has been a top-ten quarterback 7 times in his career, and Matt Stafford has done so 6 times, with slightly lower rankings. Interestingly, their best performances have both come in the past few years. They're better than I thought, though for the most part they're guys who can carry their own weight but have rarely put the team on their shoulders.

The big surprise is Joe Flacco. The guy is not a team carrier at all. He was one 10th place performance, which isn't impressive in the least, and in fact, Josh Freeman has had a more dominating season than Joe Flacco.

[ptlyon]

John David Booty. Always wondered what happened to him. Probably a pirate actor on a cruise ship somewhere.

[Rain Man]

John David Booty. Always wondered what happened to him. Probably a pirate actor on a cruise ship somewhere.

He had the bad luck of always being directly behind Jim Bob Cooter on the depth chart.

[bowener]

In 2008 and 2009, these guys were drafted.

1 Matthew Stafford Lions
3 Matt Ryan Falcons
5 Mark Sanchez Jets
17 Josh Freeman Buccaneers
18 Joe Flacco Ravens
44 Pat White Dolphins
56 Brian Brohm Packers
57 Chad Henne Dolphins
94 Kevin O'Connell Patriots
101 Stephen McGee Cowboys
137 John David Booty Vikings
151 Rhett Bomar Giants
156 Dennis Dixon Steelers
160 Josh Johnson Buccaneers
162 Erik Ainge Jets
171 Nate Davis 49ers
174 Tom Brandstater Broncos
178 Mike Teel Seahawks
186 Colt Brennan Redskins
196 Keith Null Rams
198 Andre' Woodson Giants
201 Curtis Painter Colts
209 Matt Flynn Packers
223 Alex Brink Texans

As you'll see in the file, Ryan has been a top-ten quarterback 7 times in his career, and Matt Stafford has done so 6 times, with slightly lower rankings. Interestingly, their best performances have both come in the past few years. They're better than I thought, though for the most part they're guys who can carry their own weight but have rarely put the team on their shoulders.

The big surprise is Joe Flacco. The guy is not a team carrier at all. He was one 10th place performance, which isn't impressive in the least, and in fact, Josh Freeman has had a more dominating season than Joe Flacco.

I would consider using the primary color of the team for the cell color of the QB you want to highlight, then the secondary color of the team for the font inside the colored cell.

Matt Ryan would be a black cell with red letters. Stafford would be a light blue cell with white letters. Joe Flacco would be a dark purple cell with white letters or black cell with light purple letters depending on how different you make the vikes and the ravens. Tampa I would use light brown cell with Red letters or creamcicle cell with white letters.

[Rain Man]

I would consider using the primary color of the team for the cell color of the QB you want to highlight, then the secondary color of the team for the font inside the colored cell.

Matt Ryan would be a black cell with red letters. Stafford would be a light blue cell with white letters. Joe Flacco would be a dark purple cell with white letters or black cell with light purple letters depending on how different you make the vikes and the ravens. Tampa I would use light brown cell with Red letters or creamcicle cell with white letters.

I'd consider it, but I'm wiping them out each time and overwriting them. And while I find this fascinating, I think about three people are reading them. So I'm going low-impact.

[Rain Man]

The quarterbacks drafted in 2006 and 2007 aren't really worth profiling, so I'll instead give you an overview of the AFC West QBs over the past 13 years.

So this is pretty fascinating. If you look at the table, you'll see that ...

...between 2006 and 2016, the Chiefs never had a top-ten quarterback. The last two years, we had quarterbacks that were dominant in the league. (Say what you will about 2017, but statistically it was a very good year.) So we didn't have a ghost's chance of winning anything until last year.

...the Raiders were worse than we were. From 2006 through 2018, they've gotten precisely one top-ten performance, which was Derek Carr in 2016. His season was good enough that he could have maybe carried them to a playoff win or something. It shows how bad our situation was that we envied the Raiders for this performance.

...the Broncos had 5 top-ten seasons out of these thirteen. Jay Cutler mailed in a couple of years that barely cracked the top ten (but we were still envious), and then the Horsehead Nebula had three top-tier dominating years. In retrospect, it's surprising that the Broncos couldn't capitalize on those years, as they only finally scored on Manning's farewell tour when he wasn't a top-ten guy any more.

...the Chargers? What the heck? How did the Chargers NOT win a Super Bowl over the past 13 years? Rivers has been a top ten QB in 11 of those 13 years, with four top-five performances. It's amazing that they couldn't convert all of that to a Super Bowl win, or even an appearance.







Here's the load of bad quarterbacks drafted in 2006 and 2007 who stole the NFL's money and our television time. (But Tyler Thigpen was awesome, I'll give you that. And Brodie Croyle had a great arm.)

1 JaMarcus Russell Raiders Louisiana State
3 Vince Young Titans Texas
10 Matt Leinart Cardinals USC
11 Jay Cutler Broncos Vanderbilt
22 Brady Quinn Browns Notre Dame
36 Kevin Kolb Eagles Houston
40 John Beck Dolphins Brigham Young
43 Drew Stanton Lions Michigan State
49 Kellen Clemens Jets Oregon
64 Tarvaris Jackson Vikings Alabama State
81 Charlie Whitehurst Chargers Clemson
85 Brodie Croyle Chiefs Alabama
92 Trent Edwards Bills Stanford
103 Isaiah Stanback Cowboys Washington
148 Ingle Martin Packers Furman
151 Jeff Rowe Bengals Nevada
164 Omar Jacobs Steelers Bowling Green
174 Troy Smith Ravens Ohio State
193 Reggie McNeal Bengals Texas A&M
194 Bruce Gradkowski Buccaneers Toledo
205 Jordan Palmer Redskins Texas-El Paso
217 Tyler Thigpen Vikings Coastal Carolina
223 D.J. Shockley Falcons Georgia

[Pitt Gorilla]

I added the 2010 and 2011 data in the enclosed file, and today we'll take a look at the quarterbacks from those draft classes. It almost makes feel better about Matt Cassel.

These are the quarterbacks who were drafted in 2010 and 2011, along with their draft slot. In the 8 or 9 years since they were drafted, only two of these guys have ever been in the top ten quarterbacks on a particular year - Cam Newton did it twice, never ranking higher than 7th, and Andy Dalton somehow managed a 4th-ranked year once, never to sniff it again. That's a lot of draft capital to be spent for no dominating seasons.

1 Cam Newton Panthers
1 Sam Bradford Rams
8 Jake Locker Titans
10 Blaine Gabbert Jaguars
12 Christian Ponder Vikings
25 Tim Tebow Broncos
35 Andy Dalton Bengals
36 Colin Kaepernick 49ers
48 Jimmy Clausen Panthers
74 Ryan Mallett Patriots
85 Colt McCoy Browns
122 Mike Kafka Eagles
135 Ricky Stanzi Chiefs
152 T.J. Yates Texans
155 John Skelton Cardinals
160 Nathan Enderle Bears
168 Jonathan Crompton Chargers
176 Rusty Smith Titans
180 Tyrod Taylor Ravens
181 Dan LeFevour Bears
199 Joe Webb Vikings
204 Tony Pike Panthers
208 Greg McElroy Jets
209 Levi Brown Bills
239 Sean Canfield Saints
250 Zac Robinson PatriotsI remember Chief Fan gushing about Ponder, Locker, and Clausen. Good times.

[Amnorix]

We see that Tom Brady used to be really good, and now he's washed up.


ROFL


I know you're only kidding, kinda/sorta, but there are others who believe this, and someday he WILL hit that wall (or fall off that cliff, you prefer -- probably LITERALLY is the actual preference, but:

1. Gronk hurt most of the year (played most games but gutted through injuries).

2. Edelman suspended first four games

3. Edelman returning off an ACL that knocked him out last year

4. Lost Amendola, who could be clutch

5. No backup TE receiving threat.


All are reasons -- in part -- for why Brady's performance could be down. Or, of course, his decline has begun, which is also entirely possible.

[Amnorix]

I added the 2010 and 2011 data in the enclosed file, and today we'll take a look at the quarterbacks from those draft classes. It almost makes feel better about Matt Cassel.



Does your formula/methodology account for productivity by the QB in the running game? Obviously, Cam's impact is more than just in his passing yardage.

[Rain Man]

Does your formula/methodology account for productivity by the QB in the running game? Obviously, Cam's impact is more than just in his passing yardage.

Unfortunately, no. The data grab didn't include that, and it would have been a hassle to deal with it. Also, not including it will make John Elway look worse, so I liked that.

[Amnorix]

Unfortunately, no. The data grab didn't include that, and it would have been a hassle to deal with it. Also, not including it will make John Elway look worse, so I liked that.


:LOL:

Yeah, a few guys -- Cam, Rodgers, Vick, Randall Cunningham (seriously underrated), Russell Wilson, Daunte Culpepper, made a serious and significant impact on games with their legs. Hard to capture/quantify that though. That threat does help the offense in a number of ways which don't show on the QB's stat sheet.

But yes, very hard to capture.

[Rain Man]

A number of teams stocked up on quarterbacks before the great draft drought in the late 2000s. But they started out rather odd. In the first three years of these classes, here are the guys who had top-ten seasons:

Phillip Rivers (2)
Eli Manning (2)
Aaron Rodgers (1)
Ben Roethlisberger (1)
Matt Cassel (1)
Derek Anderson (1)
J.P. Losman (1)

Some of those guys built on their early success, and others didn't.

Here's everyone who was drafted.

1 Alex Smith 49ers Utah
1 Eli Manning Chargers Mississippi
4 Philip Rivers Giants North Carolina State
11 Ben Roethlisberger Steelers Miami (OH)
22 J.P. Losman Bills Tulane
24 Aaron Rodgers Packers California
25 Jason Campbell Redskins Auburn
67 Charlie Frye Browns Akron
69 Andrew Walter Raiders Arizona State
85 David Greene Seahawks Georgia
90 Matt Schaub Falcons Virginia
106 Kyle Orton Bears Purdue
106 Luke McCown Browns Louisiana Tech
121 Stefan Lefors Panthers Louisville
145 Dan Orlovsky Lions Connecticut
148 Craig Krenzel Bears Ohio State
152 Adrian McPherson Saints Florida State
185 Andy Hall Eagles Delaware
187 Josh Harris Ravens Bowling Green
193 Jim Sorgi Colts Wisconsin
201 Jeff Smoker Rams Michigan State
202 John Navarre Cardinals Michigan
213 Derek Anderson Ravens Oregon State
217 Cody Pickett 49ers Washington
218 Casey Bramlet Bengals Wyoming
225 Matt Mauck Broncos Louisiana State
229 James Kilian Chiefs Tulsa
230 Matt Cassel Patriots USC
248 B.J. Symons Texans Texas Tech
250 Ryan Fitzpatrick Rams Harvard
250 Bradlee Van Pelt Broncos Colorado State

[Rain Man]

I've added 2002 and 2003 now. I thought that a few one-year wonders would sneak into the top ten, but Carson Palmer is the only guy out of both years to ever make the top ten. He had four years in the top ten, and when he had a good year it was usually really good. It seems like there should've been a chance for him to take a team all the way, but it never happened.

The rest of the dudes topped out at meh.

2003 1 1 1 1 Carson Palmer Bengals USC
2 1 7 7 Byron Leftwich Jaguars Marshall
3 1 19 19 Kyle Boller Ravens California
4 1 22 22 Rex Grossman Bears Florida
5 3 24 88 Dave Ragone Texans Louisville
6 3 33 97 Chris Simms Buccaneers Texas
7 4 13 110 Seneca Wallace Seahawks Iowa State
8 5 28 163 Brian St. Pierre Steelers Boston College
9 6 19 192 Drew Henson Texans Michigan
10 6 27 200 Brooks Bollinger Jets Wisconsin
11 6 28 201 Kliff Kingsbury Patriots Texas Tech
12 7 18 232 Gibran Hamdan Redskins Indiana
13 7 27 241 Ken Dorsey 49ers Miami (FL)
2002 1 1 1 1 David Carr Texans Fresno State
2 1 3 3 Joey Harrington Lions Oregon
3 1 32 32 Patrick Ramsey Redskins Tulane
4 3 16 81 Josh McCown Cardinals Sam Houston State
5 4 10 108 David Garrard Jaguars East Carolina
6 4 19 117 Rohan Davey Patriots Louisiana State
7 5 2 137 Randy Fasani Panthers Stanford
8 5 23 158 Kurt Kittner Falcons Illinois
9 5 28 163 Brandon Doman 49ers Brigham Young
10 5 29 164 Craig Nall Packers Northwestern State (LA)
11 6 14 186 J.T. O'Sullivan Saints California-Davis
12 6 33 205 Steve Bellisari Rams Ohio State
13 7 5 216 Seth Burford Chargers Cal Poly-San Luis Obispo
14 7 21 232 Jeff Kelly Seahawks Southern Mississippi
15 7 24 235 Ronald Curry Raiders North Carolina
16 7 25 236 Wes Pate Ravens Stephen F. Austin

[Rain Man]

In 2001, we had the following players drafted. It was a good year for scraping low, and we had a couple of strong ones drafted early, too.

Interestingly, Michael Vick never made the top ten. Chad Pennington and Marc Bulger snuck in a few times. But the big battle is Brees versus Brady.

Brees has been a top-ten QB in 15 years. That's darn impressive. Among those, 12 have been top-five and he's been the #1 QB three times.

Brady, on the other hand, has been a top-ten QB in 15 years. Among those, 10 were top-five and he's been the #1 QB four times.

Head to head, Drew Brees has been ranked higher than Tom Brady ten times, and Brady has been higher than Brees seven times. So Brees is the better quarterback.

1 Michael Vick Falcons Virginia Tech
18 Chad Pennington Jets Marshall
32 Drew Brees Chargers Purdue
53 Quincy Carter Cowboys Georgia
59 Marques Tuiasosopo Raiders Washington
65 Giovanni Carmazzi 49ers Hofstra
75 Chris Redman Ravens Louisville
106 Chris Weinke Panthers Florida State
109 Sage Rosenfels Redskins Iowa State
125 Jesse Palmer Giants Florida
149 Mike McMahon Lions Rutgers
155 A.J. Feeley Eagles Oregon
163 Tee Martin Steelers Tennessee
168 Marc Bulger Saints West Virginia
172 Josh Booty Seahawks Louisiana State
177 Josh Heupel Dolphins Oklahoma
183 Spergon Wynn Browns Southwest Texas State
199 Tom Brady Patriots Michigan
202 Todd Husak Redskins Stanford
205 JaJuan Seider Chargers Florida A&M
212 Tim Rattay 49ers Louisiana Tech
214 Jarious Jackson Broncos Notre Dame
234 Joe Hamilton Buccaneers Georgia Tech