Harper going to Philly

[Mecca]

Looks to be finalizing the deal it's all over my phone at the moment...guess I can't say I'm surprised.

[pugsnotdrugs19]

$330M/13 years with no opt outs.

Woah

[kcxiv]

$330M/13 years with no opt outs.

Woah
dude will be locked in until he's 39 years old. thats absolutely insane! lol

[The Franchise]

About fucking time.

[TwistedChief]

As a Mets fan.....sigh.

[The Franchise]

I wanted him as a Dodger....but not for that fucking much.

[DJ's left nut]

I wanted him as a Dodger....but not for that fucking much.

$25 million AAV with no opt-outs?

That's a fucking STEAL.

I'm livid. DeWitt is such a fucking con-man.

[The Franchise]

$25 million AAV with no opt-outs?

That's a fucking STEAL.

I'm livid. DeWitt is such a fucking con-man.

From everything I read.....the Dodgers wanted him on a short term, high AAV deal.

[Mecca]

That's less than a lot of people thought he'd get on the average but longer...you can argue it's a good deal for both parties.

[ChiliConCarnage]

13 years used to be a whole career.

[KChiefs1]

$25 million AAV with no opt-outs?



That's a fucking STEAL.



I'm livid. DeWitt is such a fucking con-man.



In 5 years that will be a steal.

[Prison Bitch]

$25 million AAV with no opt-outs?

That's a ****ing STEAL.

I'm livid. DeWitt is such a ****ing con-man.

Told ya

1. He was overrated and
2. STL could afford him


Got both right, eh?

[seaofred]

7 years in the league:

BA above .300 (2) times
More than 30 HR (2) times
More than 100 RBI's (1) time
More than 20 SB (1) time

Why did he get $330,000,000?

[Frazod]

Nats fans are going to be pissed. Not only did he stay in the same league, but also the same division.

[Mecca]

7 years in the league:

BA above .300 (2) times
More than 30 HR (2) times
More than 100 RBI's (1) time
More than 20 SB (1) time

Why did he get $330,000,000?


Go look at his OPS and his age.

[Eleazar]

Good chance that goes down like the Albert Pujols contract did. Of course, the team might be willing to live with that for the gain over the next few years.

[Mecca]

Good chance that goes down like the Albert Pujols contract did. Of course, the team might be willing to live with that for the gain over the next few years.

Harper is more athletic than Pujols is though...he obviously won't be awesome when he's nearing 40 but he should be good longer you'd think.

[DJ's left nut]

Good chance that goes down like the Albert Pujols contract did. Of course, the team might be willing to live with that for the gain over the next few years.

Albert's listed age was 32 in year 1 of his deal w/ a heavy lower half and he was already declining at the dead bottom of the defensive spectrum.

Harper's 26 in year 1. The Phil's get 6 years before he's as old as Pujols claimed and those 6 years happen to coincide with the prime years of a players career. It's also generally accepted that AP is 2 years older than he's listed AND while Harper has a lower body injury, it was a bone bruise/strain with seemingly no lingering effect. Pujols had chronic degenerative fasciatis. Moreover, Harper still has room on the defensive spectrum, he can go to LF and then to 1b if needed as he ages.

Additionally, Pujols signed for $24 million/season seven seasons ago. MLB average salaries have gone up by 41% since then. So his $24 million AAV in 2012 is akin to roughly $34 million today. Working it the other direction, Bryce Harper's $25 million AAV is akin to a $17.73 million AAV for Albert Pujols in 2012.

This is nothing approximating the Albert Pujols deal.

[Mecca]

I was reading about this deal, apparently it's front loaded while the Phillies have younger players and it lightens up in the back to give them more money flexibility going forward.

It really is a good deal for both parties.

[ModSocks]

Wasn't Harper one of the worst defensive players in the league last year?

[BWillie]

$330M/13 years with no opt outs.

Woah

What a bunch of idiots. He cant even play OF defense. But at least in the AL he has more value because you can hide him as a DH if you need to. Really dumb move by the Phils or any NL team. If I was a GM I wouldnt give him more than 5 yrs/125m

[Mephistopheles Janx]

As a Bravos fan here... it changes nothing for me. Dude is still in the NL East and he is still overrated when you look at his actual production.

Good for him though and I hope he doesn't get D-Cells chucked at his head when he has ending the season batting .238 and has struck out for 150+ times along with his shitty defense.

[Mecca]

You know Batting average and SO rate are dinosaur stats right?

[scho63]

There are only 7-8 teams that are in the Free Agency every year. Smaller and mid-sized market teams get to sit and watch each year. Baseball is the most lopsided of all sports. NBA a close second.

[DJ's left nut]

Wasn't Harper one of the worst defensive players in the league last year?

Yeah, defensive metrics killed him.

And I'll say this - that's completely fair for every inning he played in CF. He was one of the most clueless CFers I've ever seen. He simply could not read the ball at all; he was absolutely lost out there.

He was better in RF but still bad. That said, he's NEVER been a bad OFer. Earlier in his career he was a genuinely good one. In his previous 6 seasons prior to last season, he was a negative defender once and was above average to excellent the other 5 years.

Now it's possible he just hit a wall. But the data doesn't really support it - his sprint speed was dead in line with his career average and still well above league average. He's still a plus athlete out there. So if it's not his legs, what is it? Instincts don't just vanish and it's never been a desire problem with him. I think he was just wildly uncomfortable switching back and forth between CF and RF and got himself caught in between on his reads.

Nothing else about that makes sense. Why would a guy who's athleticism is virtually identical to what it was when he was a defensive asset suddenly be unable to play defense?

I think he'll settle in as a league average defensive RFer for 3-4 more years, slide over to RF for another 3-4 and then end the last 1/3 of that deal at 1b.

And the DH will be in the NL within 5 years, sadly. That option will be there for the Phillies as well.

Defense won't be what wins/loses this deal. It'll be chase rates. If he goes back to the guy he was for most of his career and was through the spring of last season (and again in the fall) rather than the guy who was just getting killed by fastballs off the plate and away from May through July, he'll go right back to being one of the most feared, destructive hitters in baseball and the Phillies will have gotten him for the price of Patrick Corbin.

It's just insane.

[Hammock Parties]

I don't understand why baseball contracts are so inflated.

Is it just TV money?

I mean Bryce Harper is good...but there are certainly better hitters and he's no Willie Mays in the outfield...

Educate me?

[Unsmooth-Moment]

The deal makes sense. It's likely going to be better than Machado's deal. Machado, or really anyone who is 36 will likely continue to struggle to find multi-year deals offered to them.

I look at this as a 10 year 300 million deal and then a 3 year 30 million deal. Something he may not have been offered after 10 years.

[Frazod]

I don't understand why baseball contracts are so inflated.

Is it just TV money?

I mean Bryce Harper is good...but there are certainly better hitters and he's no Willie Mays in the outfield...

Educate me?

https://media.giphy.com/media/RSTdSSPFyvNmw/giphy.gif

[DJ's left nut]

https://media.giphy.com/media/RSTdSSPFyvNmw/giphy.gif

OBP and HRs, man.

Guy is one of the best pure LH power hitters in baseball with a good grasp of the strike zone and truly generational raw power. Now his swing can get 'levery' at times and when it does he doesn't translate that raw power as well as some, but when his swing is synced up, he generates easy power on par with Griffey Jr.

And easy power means no overswings, little cheating, lots of HRs and walks.

I adhere to the school that says "When you demonstrate a skill, you own it until age or injury takes it away from you...". Bryce Harper has demonstrated bat to ball and raw power skills on par with some of the greatest hitters in baseball HISTORY. And no, he's not always shown them consistently, but he's shown them often enough and for long enough to believe they're repeatable.

You can argue that the bruised knee and the phantom shoulder injury that nobody wanted to talk about in 2016 have removed those skills from him, but the shoulder sure as shit didn't bother him in 2017 and the knee was just a bone bruise. I just cannot convince myself that injury has caused a physical decline there.

I think a lot of teams will regret not making this move.

[Hammock Parties]

He doesn't even average 30 homers a year for his career and you're talking about him like he's Barry Bonds.

He better improve a lot in the next couple years or Phillies fans are gonna be mad.

[DJ's left nut]

He doesn't even average 30 homers a year for his career and you're talking about him like he's Barry Bonds.

He better improve a lot in the next couple years or Phillies fans are gonna be mad.

Even Barry Bonds isn't Berry Bonds in a testing era.

But if you want to compare Harper to Bonds through 1998 (before he went on the juice), Bonds hit 411 bombs over 8100 PAs - Harper's production to this point in his career would give him 377 homers over 8100 PAs. Obviously not quite there, but not far off either. And Bonds had a .966 OPS over that period of time to Harper's .900.

Offense is up a bit since then, especially slugging, but it's closer than you realize.

Harper's not Bonds; even clean Bonds, but Bonds was seen as a surefire 1st ballot HoFer at 33 years old (1998); Harper doesn't NEED to be Bonds. Bonds is his generations Trout. Trout's gonna make a shitload more than Harper is.

Harper's still a hell of a player in his own right. It's crazy to me that Harper can have the pedigree he has and go out there with a 'down' platform year (that still ended in a .900 OPS) and get less in AAV than an aging pitcher like Greinke. I know term matters but Greinke's term takes him into clear decline as well and didn't have his prime years as part of the deal. Moreover, even his platform year heading into FA had the guy as dangerous as anyone in baseball in March, August and September. But he cratered from Mid May to Mid July and suddenly people are trying to downplay the skills he's demonstrated in the past.

Man, I'd have !@#$ing loved to have him on STL on that deal. He'd have been a fulcrum in the middle of that lineup you could build an offense around for the next 7-8 years and then age into that franchise icon role that pays for itself through marketability if nothing else (see Molina, Yadier) towards the end.

[Scooter LaCanforno]

As a Mets fan.....sigh.





I know the pain.

[Prison Bitch]

OBP and HRs, man.

Guy is one of the best pure LH power hitters in baseball with a good grasp of the strike zone and truly generational raw power. Now his swing can get 'levery' at times and when it does he doesn't translate that raw power as well as some, but when his swing is synced up, he generates easy power on par with Griffey Jr.

And easy power means no overswings, little cheating, lots of HRs and walks.

I adhere to the school that says "When you demonstrate a skill, you own it until age or injury takes it away from you...". Bryce Harper has demonstrated bat to ball and raw power skills on par with some of the greatest hitters in baseball HISTORY. And no, he's not always shown them consistently, but he's shown them often enough and for long enough to believe they're repeatable.

You can argue that the bruised knee and the phantom shoulder injury that nobody wanted to talk about in 2016 have removed those skills from him, but the shoulder sure as shit didn't bother him in 2017 and the knee was just a bone bruise. I just cannot convince myself that injury has caused a physical decline there.

I think a lot of teams will regret not making this move.


Pleasantly disagree

[DJ's left nut]

As a Harper fan (I've been a Harper honk since he came into the league; I will admit my bias), I'm excited about this.

Washington suppresses lefthanded power by quite a bit; it's probably one of the 5-7 worst LH power stadiums in baseball. And given that Harper was also considering SF, which is a GRAVEYARD for lefthanded power, anything that kept him away from that hellhole is alright by me.

Now compare Washington to Philly - Philly's stadium is at WORST the 4th best park in the league for LH power and I'd probably say it's 2nd only to Yankee Stadium.

Harper's ISO for his career in Philly is right at .300. That's over a 50 game sample which isn't dispositive but it's sufficient enough to not be ignored either.

The dude's gonna hit booooombs in Philly.

[Scooter LaCanforno]

7 years in the league:

BA above .300 (2) times
More than 30 HR (2) times
More than 100 RBI's (1) time
More than 20 SB (1) time

Why did he get $330,000,000?



The guy rarely ever sees a strike. Pitchers never throw to him. Phillies will try to pair him with Mike Trout so teams will not be able to pitch around him.

[BigRedChief]

Good chance that goes down like the Albert Pujols contract did. Of course, the team might be willing to live with that for the gain over the next few years.the I ssue for us was that the Angels and Philly can absorb a bad contract. Harper blows out a knee or loses that fire in year 1 or 2 we are fucked. Philly just like the Angels did, absorb it and move on.

[Prison Bitch]

Ben Shapiro
@benshapiro
The good news is that since the world will in end 12 years, the Phillies get out of that last year

[Simply Red]

How many championships has he led his team to?

[Prison Bitch]

How many championships has he led his team to?

6

[Chiefspants]

Ben Shapiro
@benshapiro
The good news is that since the world will in end 12 years, the Phillies get out of that last year

Now there's a man I look to for sports commentary.

[Deberg_1990]

The guy rarely ever sees a strike. Pitchers never throw to him. Phillies will try to pair him with Mike Trout so teams will not be able to pitch around him.

Mike trout is with the Phillies now?

[DJ's left nut]

How many championships has he led his team to?

How many has Trout?

[chiefzilla1501]

I can't imagine what trout will go for at this rate. Geez, for a team like the angels that are so shitty on contracts they got an absolute steal locking up trout.

[Deberg_1990]

I don't understand why baseball contracts are so inflated.

Is it just TV money?

I mean Bryce Harper is good...but there are certainly better hitters and he's no Willie Mays in the outfield...

Educate me?

I’ll never understand it either? It’s not like the NFL or the NBA where 1 players can change a teams fortunes. And it’s not even close to being as popular a sport as the NFL, so where do teams get all this money???

[Simply Red]

6

Not the Expos, I meant Harper w/ Washington. He took them to 6?

[chiefzilla1501]

Its actually an oddly good fit. I don't know why... Felt like a terrible fit for LA or Boston or nyy. But for some reason Philly seems perfect for him. Maybe a big part of it is its been a while since Philly had a marketable superstar like this. Theyre gonna recover a lot of their money just by his brand alone.

[DJ's left nut]

I’ll never understand it either? It’s not like the NFL or the NBA where 1 players can change a teams fortunes. And it’s not even close to being as popular a sport as the NFL, so where do teams get all this money???

Baseball generates over $10 billion in annual revenue from gate and various television contracts.

Where would you like to see it go?

And where they get that revenue is easy -- volume. Baseball plays games every night. And while they're not as nationally relevant, it doesn't matter because the regional popularity of baseball is enormous. There are few general 'baseball' fans but there are a shitload of Cardinals, Yankees, Dodgers, Orioles, Rockies, Mariners, etc... fans.

And when each of those teams are able to come up with local regional cable deals, the money adds up fast. When FSMW can pencil in 150 evenings of prime time programming with very little in terms of actual production costs, that's worth a pretty penny for them.

[Deberg_1990]

Baseball generates over $10 billion in annual revenue from gate and various television contracts.

Where would you like to see it go?

And where they get that revenue is easy -- volume. Baseball plays games every night. And while they're not as nationally relevant, it doesn't matter because the regional popularity of baseball is enormous. There are few general 'baseball' fans but there are a shitload of Cardinals, Yankees, Dodgers, Orioles, Rockies, Mariners, etc... fans.

And when each of those teams are able to come up with local regional cable deals, the money adds up fast. When FSMW can pencil in 150 evenings of prime time programming with very little in terms of actual production costs, that's worth a pretty penny for them.

Thank you. That’s interesting.

How do teams value worth? I mean, Harper could hit 50 HRs and 120 RBIs for the next 13 years and they might never sniff a world championship.

Baseball is extremely hard to project. Too many variables. Unlike other sports.

[chiefzilla1501]

It's kind of amazing that for as big a market as Philly is and as good as their teams have been at times, this is really the first big time celebrity they've had in a while. Maybe chase Utley. Maybe Ryan Howard for a short while. Simmons and Wentz are popular in their quiet way. Embiid is wildly popular but not really talked about outside Philly. Nothing like what they had with McNabb and Mike Schmidt. This guy's going to make Philly a decent amount of money. Has to factor in. I mean, think about how much money Lebron made cle and LA vs how much he got paid.

[mcaj22]

Read that Washington's offer was for 300 million with 100 million in deferrals paying Harper until he was 60 LOL.

[duncan_idaho]

I think the Phillies got an absolute steal in terms on this. 13 years is a LONG time but Harper can pay off the back end of that deal by the time his prime is over.

I know DJ hates the 8.5 million/WAR market figure but do think that’s a useful baseline for contracts. If he’s a 5 win player through his prime, he’s going to pay off the deal with 6 years to go on it.

Harper has two skills that age incredibly well - plate discipline and raw power. He also is just now entering what history tells us are the most productive years of his career.

He also is landing in a deep and stacked lineup with better hitters behind him than he had in Washington.

[Mecca]

Mike trout is with the Phillies now?

That rumor is already out there, Trout is from Jersey basically down the street that the Phillies are gonna go after him too.

[cosmo20002]

OBP and HRs, man.

Guy is one of the best pure LH power hitters in baseball with a good grasp of the strike zone and truly generational raw power. Now his swing can get 'levery' at times and when it does he doesn't translate that raw power as well as some, but when his swing is synced up, he generates easy power on par with Griffey Jr.

And easy power means no overswings, little cheating, lots of HRs and walks.

I adhere to the school that says "When you demonstrate a skill, you own it until age or injury takes it away from you...". Bryce Harper has demonstrated bat to ball and raw power skills on par with some of the greatest hitters in baseball HISTORY. And no, he's not always shown them consistently, but he's shown them often enough and for long enough to believe they're repeatable.

You can argue that the bruised knee and the phantom shoulder injury that nobody wanted to talk about in 2016 have removed those skills from him, but the shoulder sure as shit didn't bother him in 2017 and the knee was just a bone bruise. I just cannot convince myself that injury has caused a physical decline there.

I think a lot of teams will regret not making this move.

:rolleyes:
What a bunch of nonsense.

[Mecca]

Ya'll are weird, Harper is a top flight player who got less than most expected yet somehow this is bad?

[Kepner] Boras on no opt-outs in Harper's 13/$330M deal: "He wanted to go to one city, stay there, build a brand and identity and recruit players. He wants to tell players: come play with me. He knows it will help winning more if he's with one team the whole time."

[duncan_idaho]

Ya'll are weird, Harper is a top flight player who got less than most expected yet somehow this is bad?

[Kepner] Boras on no opt-outs in Harper's 13/$330M deal: "He wanted to go to one city, stay there, build a brand and identity and recruit players. He wants to tell players: come play with me. He knows it will help winning more if he's with one team the whole time."


There’s no bad about it. Any way you slice it.

[DRM08]

You know Batting average and SO rate are dinosaur stats right?

Is WAR a dinosaur stat? 1.3 in 159 games for the 2018 season. 1.5 in 147 games for the 2016 season. Pretty awful performance for a superstar guy.

[DJ's left nut]

:rolleyes:
What a bunch of nonsense.

Yeah, but you clearly don't have a fucking clue what you're talking about, so there's that to consider.

[Mecca]

Yea I can't imagine what this thread would look like if the Royals had Bryce Harper.

[The Franchise]

Ya'll are weird, Harper is a top flight player who got less than most expected yet somehow this is bad?

[Kepner] Boras on no opt-outs in Harper's 13/$330M deal: "He wanted to go to one city, stay there, build a brand and identity and recruit players. He wants to tell players: come play with me. He knows it will help winning more if he's with one team the whole time."

Wish that would have been LA. Oh well.

[duncan_idaho]

Is WAR a dinosaur stat? 1.3 in 159 games for the 2018 season. 1.5 in 147 games for the 2016 season. Pretty awful performance for a superstar guy.


Baseball reference is not the best resource for hitter WAR. Their formula for OF in particular is a little too reliant on range ratings.

Fangraphs is a lot more stable for hitters. I hate it for pitchers though

[duncan_idaho]

Is WAR a dinosaur stat? 1.3 in 159 games for the 2018 season. 1.5 in 147 games for the 2016 season. Pretty awful performance for a superstar guy.


Baseball reference is not the best resource for hitter WAR. Their formula for OF in particular is a little too reliant on range ratings.

Fangraphs is a lot more stable for hitters. I hate it for pitchers though.

[DRM08]

Baseball reference is not the best resource for hitter WAR. Their formula for OF in particular is a little too reliant on range ratings.

Fangraphs is a lot more stable for hitters. I hate it for pitchers though.

Fangraphs is 3.5 WAR and rated 46th in the league for the 2018 season. Not exactly generational superstar performance.

[Mecca]

Fangraphs is 3.5 WAR and rated 46th in the league for the 2018 season. Not exactly generational superstar performance.

You're cherry picking 1 year...

[cosmo20002]

Yeah, but you clearly don't have a ****ing clue what you're talking about, so there's that to consider.

"truly generational raw power"
Derp. Gimme a fucking break. And is that opposed to his "non-raw power" (whatever that is) not being generational? Or his "easy power?" You use a lot of words to say next to nothing. Like a baseball Babbly Lee.

"good grasp of the strike zone"
Just say that he walks a lot.

Now his swing can get 'levery' at times and when it does he doesn't translate that raw power as well as some,
JFC...:rolleyes:

[DJ's left nut]

"truly generational raw power"
Derp. Gimme a fucking break. And is that opposed to his "non-raw power" (whatever that is) not being generational? Or his "easy power?" You use a lot of words to say next to nothing. Like a baseball Babbly Lee.

"good grasp of the strike zone"
Just say that he walks a lot.

Now his swing can get 'levery' at times and when it does he doesn't translate that raw power as well as some,
JFC...:rolleyes:

The defense rests...

[DRM08]

You're cherry picking 1 year...

2016 sucked too. That's 2 of the last 3.

[Best22]

It's kind of amazing that for as big a market as Philly is and as good as their teams have been at times, this is really the first big time celebrity they've had in a while. Maybe chase Utley. Maybe Ryan Howard for a short while. Simmons and Wentz are popular in their quiet way. Embiid is wildly popular but not really talked about outside Philly. Nothing like what they had with McNabb and Mike Schmidt. This guy's going to make Philly a decent amount of money. Has to factor in. I mean, think about how much money Lebron made cle and LA vs how much he got paid.

Allen Iverson used to play for Philadelphia

[chiefzilla1501]

Allen Iverson used to play for Philadelphia

Yeah, 15 years ago. Same as McNabb. It's been a decade+ drought with very little star power.

[tk13]

That star power thing does work both ways. If Machado fails Padres fans won't like it but that's about it. If Harper bombs in Philly the fans are going to hammer him. It'll be a long 13 years.

[ChiefsCountry]

Baseball generates over $10 billion in annual revenue from gate and various television contracts.

Where would you like to see it go?

And where they get that revenue is easy -- volume. Baseball plays games every night. And while they're not as nationally relevant, it doesn't matter because the regional popularity of baseball is enormous. There are few general 'baseball' fans but there are a shitload of Cardinals, Yankees, Dodgers, Orioles, Rockies, Mariners, etc... fans.

And when each of those teams are able to come up with local regional cable deals, the money adds up fast. When FSMW can pencil in 150 evenings of prime time programming with very little in terms of actual production costs, that's worth a pretty penny for them.

If/when baseball expands I think its about time to go to the NHL format of 4 regional divisions of 8 teams each.

[duncan_idaho]

2016 sucked too. That's 2 of the last 3.


You have a weird definition of suck. He was a 3-win player in 16 and a 3.5 win player last year.

Which is worth...
Guess what...

$25 million and some change in open market dollars.

The Phillies are paying him annually at his floor of performance over the past four seasons.

[chiefzilla1501]

That star power thing does work both ways. If Machado fails Padres fans won't like it but that's about it. If Harper bombs in Philly the fans are going to hammer him. It'll be a long 13 years.

I think it's pretty low risk. Pujols being a bust... Nobody in LA gave a shit. If Machado busts nobody in SD gives a shit. If harper busts in Philly... It will be after a big bump early on. And an even bigger bump from people talking about how much they hate him if he fails.

It seems like a perfect fit. The Phillies needed someone to make their team relevant. The Yankees and Sox need a person who is a safer bet to help them win games. From that perspective, harper barring some immediate career ending injury is a shoo in.

[Eleazar]

Albert's listed age was 32 in year 1 of his deal w/ a heavy lower half and he was already declining at the dead bottom of the defensive spectrum.

Harper's 26 in year 1. The Phil's get 6 years before he's as old as Pujols claimed and those 6 years happen to coincide with the prime years of a players career. It's also generally accepted that AP is 2 years older than he's listed AND while Harper has a lower body injury, it was a bone bruise/strain with seemingly no lingering effect. Pujols had chronic degenerative fasciatis. Moreover, Harper still has room on the defensive spectrum, he can go to LF and then to 1b if needed as he ages.

Additionally, Pujols signed for $24 million/season seven seasons ago. MLB average salaries have gone up by 41% since then. So his $24 million AAV in 2012 is akin to roughly $34 million today. Working it the other direction, Bryce Harper's $25 million AAV is akin to a $17.73 million AAV for Albert Pujols in 2012.

This is nothing approximating the Albert Pujols deal.

Obviously there's an age difference, it just meats an albatross contract that they are never going to get production out of. He wasn't even in the top 10 in OPS last year. He's hit 40 home runs and batted in 100 runs once. His postseason batting average is bad. He's overrated.

I'm sure Philadelphia is considering that they would be willing to pay a premium, and pay him for 13 years for 6-7 years of good production, and the people signing him to this deal probably won't be around in 13 years anyway so they don't care. Ownership probably just thinks they'll make the money back at the gate, if not on the field.

If Philly fans have some kind of long term love affair with him, anyway - something they don't have a history of doing, and not with guys like him.

[chiefzilla1501]

Obviously there's an age difference, it just meats an albatross contract that they are never going to get production out of. He wasn't even in the top 10 in OPS last year. He's hit 40 home runs and batted in 100 runs once. His postseason batting average is bad. He's overrated.

I'm sure Philadelphia is considering that they would be willing to pay a premium, and pay him for 13 years for 6-7 years of good production, and the people signing him to this deal probably won't be around in 13 years anyway so they don't care. Ownership probably just thinks they'll make the money back at the gate, if not on the field.

If Philly fans have some kind of long term love affair with him, anyway - something they don't have a history of doing, and not with guys like him.

You don't think he'll be liked in Philly? I actually think it's a perfect place for him. The city is a little different from the savage fans from a few decades ago. If they embraced Jimmy butler, they'll embrace Bryce Harper. You're absolutely right that the money will be recovered quickly. Not just at the gate. TV deal and merch revenue are probably shooting up right now.

[Chiefspants]

Wish that would have been LA. Oh well.

LAD offered 4/180 according to Rosenthal

[O.city]

Atleast he’s going to a park that is well suited for s LH batter

[duncan_idaho]

Obviously there's an age difference, it just meats an albatross contract that they are never going to get production out of. He wasn't even in the top 10 in OPS last year. He's hit 40 home runs and batted in 100 runs once. His postseason batting average is bad. He's overrated.



I'm sure Philadelphia is considering that they would be willing to pay a premium, and pay him for 13 years for 6-7 years of good production, and the people signing him to this deal probably won't be around in 13 years anyway so they don't care. Ownership probably just thinks they'll make the money back at the gate, if not on the field.



If Philly fans have some kind of long term love affair with him, anyway - something they don't have a history of doing, and not with guys like him.


He’s overrated compared to Trout, sure.

But he’s also a guy who, at age 25, has a career .900 OPS, already has 2 seasons over 1.000 OPS, and can reasonably be projected to have the best in front of him.

He’s a reasonable bet to go .270/.400/.600 over the next 5 years, seasons that would produce 35-40 HR if he can make it to 140 games... and there’s more upside in there.

His top 5 comparisons by age are:

Mel Ott
Ken Griffey
Frank Robinson
Frank Thomas
Paul Waner

He absolutely is a star. He’s just not Trout.

[DJ's left nut]

He’s overrated compared to Trout, sure.

But he’s also a guy who, at age 25, has a career .900 OPS, already has 2 seasons over 1.000 OPS, and can reasonably be projected to have the best in front of him.

He’s a reasonable bet to go .270/.400/.600 over the next 5 years, seasons that would produce 35-40 HR if he can make it to 140 games... and there’s more upside in there.

His top 5 comparisons by age are:

Mel Ott
Ken Griffey
Frank Robinson
Frank Thomas
Paul Waner

He absolutely is a star. He’s just not Trout.

People keep wanting to act like Harper's a 'conventional' FA in that he got there at 29/30 years old.

You just cannot overlook how rare it is to A) produce at the level he has at the ages he has and B) be on the FA market prior to your peak seasons.

He's a rare bird. He's the kind of guy you go ahead and give a record contract.

Meanwhile the Cardinals will give Paul Goldschmidt a 6 year extension at a higher AAV to stick around exclusively in his decline years. Because they're stupid.

[Prison Bitch]

He’s overrated compared to Trout, sure.

But he’s also a guy who, at age 25, has a career .900 OPS, already has 2 seasons over 1.000 OPS, and can reasonably be projected to have the best in front of him.

He’s a reasonable bet to go .270/.400/.600 over the next 5 years, seasons that would produce 35-40 HR if he can make it to 140 games... and there’s more upside in there.

His top 5 comparisons by age are:

Mel Ott
Ken Griffey
Frank Robinson
Frank Thomas
Paul Waner

He absolutely is a star. He’s just not Trout.



He had 1 outlier year. You keep ignoring that blinding fact.


Look the baseball world agrees he’s overrated and his contract proved it. Do you and DJ know more than 30 MLB front offices? With their millions on the line? Highly improbable


He’s a very good player which is why he got 25 AAV. He is not a top 10 player, and certainly not the next Mantle as DJ promised me

[duncan_idaho]

People keep wanting to act like Harper's a 'conventional' FA in that he got there at 29/30 years old.



You just cannot overlook how rare it is to A) produce at the level he has at the ages he has and B) be on the FA market prior to your peak seasons.



He's a rare bird. He's the kind of guy you go ahead and give a record contract.



Meanwhile the Cardinals will give Paul Goldschmidt a 6 year extension at a higher AAV to stick around exclusively in his decline years. Because they're stupid.


Same can be said of Machado, really. He’s moving back to 3B, so the Padres will get superstar defense to go with his bat.

Entering his age 26 season, Goldschmidt had two full seasons under his belt, with a .850 and .952 OPS in those seasons. He went on to be one of the best sluggers in baseball over the next five seasons.

Goldtschmidt averaged 5 wins a season in that time. Won’t be surprised in the slightest if Harper tops that.

[DJ's left nut]

Same can be said of Machado, really. He’s moving back to 3B, so the Padres will get superstar defense to go with his bat.

Entering his age 26 season, Goldschmidt had two full seasons under his belt, with a .850 and .952 OPS in those seasons. He went on to be one of the best sluggers in baseball over the next five seasons.

Goldtschmidt averaged 5 wins a season in that time. Won’t be surprised in the slightest if Harper tops that.

And unless he's an historical outlier, Goldschimdt falls into the 'late arriving' category of players that doesn't age as well. He wasn't a truly good player until his age 25 season; guys that break out at that age simply aren't as good a bet to play as well in their decline years.

Now again, that's over large numbers. And HoF level talents age differently so if you see Goldschmidt's late breakout as a product less of his talent but more of circumstance (small college player that was drafted out of college and then proceeded to wreck the minor leagues), you can categorize him differently.

But as a general rule, you're waaaaaay better off betting on someone who broke out at 21/22 years old performing well in their decline years than someone who didn't emerge fully formed until 25.

['Hamas' Jenkins]

It's also worth noting that players that break out at young ages generally don't tend to experience the improvement in the age 26-28 years. When they hit the scene they are generally as good as they'll ever be.

[duncan_idaho]

It's also worth noting that players that break out at young ages generally don't tend to experience the improvement in the age 26-28 years. When they hit the scene they are generally as good as they'll ever be.


I wouldn’t expect Harper to ever be better than he was at age 22. Truly historically good season.

What I think is reasonable to expect in his prime years is for him to be more consistent.

The Phillies will also likely protect him more defensively than the Nats, who were always willing to move him around. If I were them, I’d play Harper in left and McCutchen in RF. And they’ll never have him in CF, which is good. That’s the only place I think he’s really “bad” defensively.

[FloridaMan88]

He didn’t win shit in Washington with a better team.

[Titty Meat]

Told ya

1. He was overrated and
2. STL could afford him


Got both right, eh?

You also called Alex Gordon's contract a steal

[duncan_idaho]

He didn’t win shit in Washington with a better team.


Mike Trout has yet to win anything either. Guess he sucks, too.

[DJ's left nut]

It's also worth noting that players that break out at young ages generally don't tend to experience the improvement in the age 26-28 years. When they hit the scene they are generally as good as they'll ever be.

Absolutely. Those guys tend to stay fairly steady but they stay steady through 30-31.

Nobody expects Harper to improve on the guy he was at 22. But there's also no real reason to expect him to decline from what he showed at 24.

I mean people are awfully quick to say something like "What if 2015 never happened" which is silly on two fronts. 1) That was one of the best seasons EVER and 2) 2017 still happened.

I don't imagine he's going to be what he was in 2015 again, but 2017 is within his range and he's at a point in his career where he has 4-5 realistic shots at replicating that kind of performance. That's....aight.

[DJ's left nut]

Mike Trout has yet to win anything either. Guess he sucks, too.

Mike Trout has one career post-season hit and has never led a post-season inning. His squad once had a 1-0 lead in the top of the 1st and promptly gave up 3 in the bottom half.

When the undisputed best player in the game has not only never won shit but has never come remotely close to winning shit, that entire argument is obviously invalid.

[Prison Bitch]

You also called Alex Gordon's contract a steal

Post it. Or tapout with dignity.

[Hoover]

He turned down 45 million a year for 4 years with the Dodgers.

I think I would have bet on myself and took the 180 million, then got a second contract at age 30.

[Prison Bitch]

You know that’s not true, right?

[duncan_idaho]

You also called Alex Gordon's contract a steal


You’re probably thinking of me.

I don’t believe I referred to it as a steal, but I did say it was below expected cost when FA started and was friendly-ish to the Royals.

Hindsight is 20/20, but there was no reason to expect the drop that occurred to happen in 2016.

[Prison Bitch]

Alex contract isn’t even bad anyway.

He’s been worth 40M of the 72M with one year left. Normally it’s the washout year but he ages well and should get another 5-10M of value. This contract isn’t an issue.

[DJ's left nut]

He turned down 45 million a year for 4 years with the Dodgers.

I think I would have bet on myself and took the 180 million, then got a second contract at age 30.

I'd have countered at $50 million/season for 3 seasons and then gone back onto the market at 29 (30 is like 100,000 on the odometer; it shouldn't mean as much as it does, but it does) with the brand new CBA in place and almost certainly increased luxury tax thresholds.

And I'd have asked that some significant percentage of that be called a 'signing bonus' that has a deferred payment so that I get it still in the event of a labor stoppage.

But the bottom line is that he knew that Stanton was sitting at $325 and he wanted that record.

[DJ's left nut]

Alex contract isn’t even bad anyway.

He’s been worth 40M of the 72M with one year left. Normally it’s the washout year but he ages well and should get another 5-10M of value. This contract isn’t an issue.

I give you WAR, ladies and gentlemen.

Any metric that says Alex Gordon was nearly TWICE as valuable to his team as Bryce Harper was to the Nationals in 2018 is just nonsense.

DWAR is just the absolute most worthless metric on the planet and when people insist on incorporating it into overall WAR, they do things like give Jason Heyward $180 million.

A win share isn't worth $8 million and a defensive win share isn't worth anything at all.

[Hoover]

I'd have countered at $50 million/season for 3 seasons and then gone back onto the market at 29 (30 is like 100,000 on the odometer; it shouldn't mean as much as it does, but it does) with the brand new CBA in place and almost certainly increased luxury tax thresholds.

And I'd have asked that some significant percentage of that be called a 'signing bonus' that has a deferred payment so that I get it still in the event of a labor stoppage.

But the bottom line is that he knew that Stanton was sitting at $325 and he wanted that record.
yeah, I think that would make a ton of sense.

[duncan_idaho]

I give you WAR, ladies and gentlemen.



Any metric that says Alex Gordon was nearly TWICE as valuable to his team as Bryce Harper was to the Nationals in 2018 is just nonsense.



DWAR is just the absolute most worthless metric on the planet and when people insist on incorporating it into overall WAR, they do things like give Jason Heyward $180 million.



A win share isn't worth $8 million and a defensive win share isn't worth anything at all.


It’s imperfect, but it’s the best estimator of overall value we have.

I think fWAR is pretty good for position players, though I think their formula is bad for 1B. I like bWAR better for pitchers because it is less dependent on strikeouts.

I think teams are still using 8.5/win share as a rough free agent market guidepost, as the deals come in pretty close to that.

[DJ's left nut]

It’s imperfect, but it’s the best estimator of overall value we have.

I think fWAR is pretty good for position players, though I think their formula is bad for 1B. I like bWAR better for pitchers because it is less dependent on strikeouts.

I think teams are still using 8.5/win share as a rough free agent market guidepost, as the deals come in pretty close to that.

oWAR is okay; I don't have a problem with the idea that oWAR can be used as a solid proxy for a player's overall offensive contributions.

It's absolute garbage for defense. Even its proprietors recognize how bad dWAR is at single-season sample sizes yet it's still given equal weight to oWAR when combining.

It's a metric they KNOW doesn't work over the period of time they're applying it to yet they continue to apply it. I also think that oWAR undervalues the contributions of run producers. I get that getting on base is more important (and it is), but someone's gotta actually swing the stick and drive those guys in.

I'm sure I can find a more recent example at some point, but the thing that really brought it to my attention was the 2013 St. Louis Cardinals. oWAR says that Jon Jay was equally valuable to Allen Craig that year. Meanwhile the results on the field were so disparate that Allen Craig was given a long-term extension and we traded a world series icon for Peter Bourjos exclusively to bury Jon Jay.

And when Craig got hurt in the 2013 World Series and his feet never recovered, we've spent 5 years trying to go find a guy that will go take quality at-bats with runners in scoring position and drive those damn guys in. oWAR simply discounts Craig's run production because it just doesn't consider RBI anything other than context specific. That's fine, but in that context, Craig did a job that needed to be done and 5 years later we're still struggling to find a guy that can do it to that level.

It's just not the dispositive tool that so many of its proponents want to argue.

['Hamas' Jenkins]

I think wRC is the best tool to evaluate offensive players.

[DJ's left nut]

I think wRC is the best tool to evaluate offensive players.

Yeah, I really do like wRC+. Yeah, if I had to choose one attempt to capture a players total offensive production, that would be what I used. And one that I like to use as well in concert with it (though I find it REALLY valuable for relief pitchers) is WPA.

If you can incorporate oWAR, wRC+ and WPA, you get a pretty damn good picture of a player's overall offensive contributions.

[FloridaMan88]

Mike Trout has yet to win anything either. Guess he sucks, too.

Congrats on completely missing the point.

As great as Harper may be, what is the point in spending $330 million on a player who couldn't win anything in Washington with a better roster.

What changes in Philly?

Explain.

[DJ's left nut]

Congrats on completely missing the point.

As great as Harper may be, what is the point in spending $330 million on a player who couldn't win anything in Washington with a better roster.

What changes in Philly?

Explain.

A) Congrats on completely missing his point as well...

B) The MLB Playoffs 'crapshoot theory'. Since the beginning of the Wild Card era, the team with the best record in baseball had only a slightly increased likelihood of winning the WS over the worst team in the playoffs. It's been improved somewhat by making the WC a play-in game, but still, once a team is in the post-season their odds of winning a WS are really not a hell of a lot worse than some squad that won 105 games.

The Washington Nationals averaged 92 losses/season prior to Bryce Harpers arrival. They averaged 92 WINS per season in the 7 years he was there.
It wasn't all him, obviously, but to act as though he was just along for the rid is asinine. He was a huge part of their move forward just as he could be a huge part of Philly's. They went to the playoffs 4 times in those 7 years. And yeah, they didn't win it all but that's just the nature of post-season baseball.

And if you want to know why the Phillies paid him what they paid him - do some digging on their TV deal and their balance sheet. That team is a GOLDMINE. This is all monopoly money to them. They'll absolutely be after Trout in 2 years because they have the room to fit him, Harper, Hoskins, Realmuto AND Nola in their payroll. That team's that lean and they've made that much money over the last few years (and will continue to make it going forward).

[FloridaMan88]

The MLB Playoffs 'crapshoot theory'. Since the beginning of the Wild Card era, the team with the best record in baseball had only a slightly increased likelihood of winning the WS over the worst team in the playoffs. It's been improved somewhat by making the WC a play-in game, but still, once a team is in the post-season their odds of winning a WS are really not a hell of a lot worse than some squad that won 105 games.

So using your stated "crapshoot theory", what is the point in spending $330 million on one player if the correlation to winning a WS is questionable at best from that investment?

[DJ's left nut]

So using your stated "crapshoot theory", what is the point in spending $330 million on one player if the correlation to winning a WS is questionable at best from that investment?

Gotta get to the post-season first.

And more critically, due to the changes in the wild card format you really need to win the division.

Bryce Harper may not make the difference between winning and losing in the first round of the playoffs, but he can EASILY make the difference between winning the division and missing the playoffs (or getting stuck in the wild card game).

Besides, citing the total outlay is disingenuous. At $25 million/season in AAV, he's not even the highest paid OFer in his own division.

You pay $25 million/season because you want a ticket to the dance. And with the #2 or #3 revenues in the sport, you're still sitting outside the top 10 in spending even after adding that $25 million. If that's what gets you to the post-season where you have a chance only nominally worse than teams spending $60-$70 million more on payroll than you are, it's a damn nice return on the investment.

[Prison Bitch]

It’s imperfect, but it’s the best estimator of overall value we have.

I think fWAR is pretty good for position players, though I think their formula is bad for 1B. I like bWAR better for pitchers because it is less dependent on strikeouts.

I think teams are still using 8.5/win share as a rough free agent market guidepost, as the deals come in pretty close to that.

Correct on all points.

Not sure where you’re going with this DJ, the market is backing up the value calcs


If you have something nobody knows post it. Where’s your hidden vault of player valuation

[duncan_idaho]

Congrats on completely missing the point.



As great as Harper may be, what is the point in spending $330 million on a player who couldn't win anything in Washington with a better roster.



What changes in Philly?



Explain.


Congrats on trying to make a silly point.

The roster in Philadelphia shapes up to eventually be stronger than the roster in Washington.

The lineup this year will be the best/deepest one Harper has been a part of. The real separator is in the other run producers.

The Phillies don’t currently have a rotation that approaches the Nationals recent ones, but it has a strong foundation with Nola and several guys with upside.

The Phillies are a team on the rise and have a ton of money to spend to continue improving around Harper.

[Prison Bitch]

bWAR by year:

2012: 5.2

2013: 3.7

2014: 1.1

2015: 10.0

2016: 1.5

2017: 4.7

2018: 1.3