When will a team walk away from offering their mid-tier QB an extension?

[RealSNR]

Andy Dalton is making $16 million AAV on his 2014 extension. When he first signed it, that was a contract that busted the QB market into the runaway train that it has become.

The cap keeps climbing, but it's not outpacing the total amount of money made by QBs in this league. So many mediocre mid-tier QBs are eating up a ton of their team's salary cap space compared to what they actually deliver.

Since that Dalton contract, here's what some of these guys have cracked:

Ryan Tannehill got $19 million AAV in 2015
Tyrod Taylor got $15 million AAV in 2016
Flacco got a 3-year extension at $22 million AAV in 2016
Stafford gets $27 million AAV in 2017
Case Keenum getting $18 million AAV from the Donks in 2018
Kirk Cousins got $28 million AAV in 2018

Now, there are the QBs you sign to these ball-busting deals because they're top-of-the-league guys. I think you can sometimes get away with a guy like Stafford getting the extension he did, particularly if he's all your team has going for it. I think Russell Wilson and Aaron Rodgers probably deserved to re-set the price for a true franchise QB the way their contracts did.

So now what about the other guys who don't deserve all that money but get it anyway because they're QBs and the teams are too scared to move on? The whispers are now around that Dak's extension is going to reach beyond $30 million AAV.

Mariota, Winston, Goff, and Wentz are fast approaching their extension windows. Would you feel comfortable giving Aaron Rodgers money to any of those guys? Maaaybe Wentz, but only if he somehow proves he can stay healthy? Mahomes will get his when the time comes, but along with him, Chicago and Houston have to make choices on their game managers. Are they going to pay those turds all that dough? If Mahomes makes what he's going to make, and he gets his extension first, are the agents of Trubisky and Watson going to accept far less from Mahomes according to their actual respective worth to their teams?

When is a team going to put on the brakes and say, "No?" That kind of happened with Cousins, but not before Washington dragged out the process by paying Kirk all that fucking money on those two tag contracts. Teams generally agree on limits for certain positions at mid-tier ability levels. Will they one day come to their senses in the same way regarding QBs and agree universally in saying "You can't Super Bowl with a game manager who takes up 15%+ of your salary cap"

[PAChiefsGuy]

When GMs and scouts stop overvaluing that position. That's when.

[Sofa King]

Dak is shit. He'll keep Dallas down as long as he's there.

[CasselGotPeedOn]

When GMs and scouts stop overvaluing that position. That's when.

Perfect response from the Alex Smith ball washer.

[pugsnotdrugs19]

When GMs and scouts stop overvaluing that position. That's when.

I’m not sure it can be overvalued. It’s a really big fuckin’ deal when it comes to actually winning championships.

The issue is properly assessing the value of your own QB as it relates to the salary that he is going to be making with an extension. Teams have to find that law of diminishing returns line. Even then, most would be smart to keep their QB if he’s good at all.

[Titty Meat]

When GMs and coaches can go 1-15 and not get fired.

[Why Not?]

It’s Jay Cutler disease. When you have a QB who is good enough for you to think “if we just get some pieces on offense or get a bit of a better defense, we can win with this guy”. Or if your owner is content to go 9-7/10-6 ceiling while pocketing millions and being able to sell fans on a “winning team”. Chiefs went through this for several years with guys that may have been top end of that type of QB(Green, Smith)but were those QB’s all the same. I’m just glad it’s no longer our problem for a decade plus.

['Hamas' Jenkins]

"Buy for a dollar, sell for two."

Football is the last of the three big sports to adopt analytics with zeal. Once it happens in earnest, you'll start seeing the smart teams dump these guys for the franchise killers they are. Football is like the NBA in that the worst place to be is in the middle.

There are a lot of QBs that can get a team to mediocre if all they do is adopt the Alex Smith model of quarterbacking. Those next four wins are exponentially more difficult. Even if a guy like Stafford is twice as good as Dak Prescott, his twice as good may net you another win at most, with far more salary to get it. Ironically, Prescott will soon get Stafford-level money while really being nothing more than a game manager. You'd be better off financially taking a mid-round QB, neutering him, and saving 25 million per season. However, in both cases, you'd still be going nowhere.

The Dolphins just did it about as well as you could. They took a cheap, distressed QB asset and are going to ride out his development for a season. If Rosen bombs, they've got a high-level pick. If he shows promise, they've got him for next to no salary commitment.

Tanking has been successfully in MLB, but it also requires more luck due to the bust rate of prospects. To win in the NBA you have to tank.

People want to give Dorsey a lot of credit for the Browns, but the reason why that team has so much young talent is also due to Sashi Brown adopting an MLB/NBA style of asset collection.

[Eleazar]

Either you have an elite QB or you have nothing. You have no real chance at sustained success without one, which means the league has become very top-heavy. Teams absolutely should refuse to pay these JAGs something just shy of elite QBs.

The NFL will have to do something about this at some point, right? They must recognize that it's turned into the NBA where you've got more or less the same people playing for the title every year, and the rest of the league is a bunch of also-rans.

Sure, we are on top of this now that we have the QB, but is the NFL better now that it's basically an arena/flag-football game where the QB is the only thing that really matters? Last year we were a dumbass penalty away from the Super Bowl with a defense that was at one point on pace to give up the most yards EVER. How can the league not see that the game needs to change?

It doesn't make fans more engaged to see teams have to commit years of their fan lives to never-weres like Mariota and Prescott and Winston and other inferior QBs. The league should bring back the ability to win a Super Bowl as a team, and not just as a QB's staff.

[Why Not?]

Oh. But I will say that Flacco is in a bit of a different boat. He won a SB with that team. That’s almost always gonna get you an extension and probably rightfully so.

[pugsnotdrugs19]

Either you have an elite QB or you have nothing. You have no real chance at sustained success without one, which means the league has become very top-heavy. Teams absolutely should refuse to pay these JAGs something just shy of elite QBs.

The NFL will have to do something about this at some point, right? They must recognize that it's turned into the NBA where you've got more or less the same people playing for the title every year, and the rest of the league is a bunch of also-rans.

Sure, we are on top of this now that we have the QB, but is the NFL better now that it's basically an arena/flag-football game where the QB is the only thing that really matters? Last year we were a dumbass penalty away from the Super Bowl with a defense that was at one point on pace to give up the most yards EVER. How can the league not see that the game needs to change?

It doesn't make fans more engaged to see teams have to commit years of their fan lives to never-were like Mariota and Prescott and Winston and other inferior QBs. The league should bring back the ability to win a Super Bowl as a team, and not just as a QB's staff.

I’m not sure I’d agree on all those points. I view the position as an eraser of sorts. The better your guy is, the less important it is to build the team up around him to be great. But even teams with average to below average QBs can compete so long as they meet the requisite needs around that player throughout the rest of the roster.

We saw with Bortles and even Manning in 2015, even the shittiest of QB play can be uplifted by an elite defense. It’s just really hard to put those pieces together and keep them healthy at once. Even a guy like Goff almost got it done and I wouldn’t consider him to be anything close to elite.

Teams with someone like Mahomes, Brady, Brees.... they have an easier route to the end goal. But I think there are 10-15 teams every year with a realistic path as well.

[PAChiefsGuy]

Perfect response from the Alex Smith ball washer.

It is if you think about it because I didnt blame everything on Alex Smith like others on here now did I?

[Eleazar]

When GMs and coaches can go 1-15 and not get fired.

A decent coach should be able to find a journeyman QB and field a watchable team, but like Hamas mentioned, the worst place to be is the middle.

i.e., where the Chiefs have spent most all of our lifetimes

[Titty Meat]

"Buy for a dollar, sell for two."

Football is the last of the three big sports to adopt analytics with zeal. Once it happens in earnest, you'll start seeing the smart teams dump these guys for the franchise killers they are. Football is like the NBA in that the worst place to be is in the middle.

There are a lot of QBs that can get a team to mediocre if all they do is adopt the Alex Smith model of quarterbacking. Those next four wins are exponentially more difficult. Even if a guy like Stafford is twice as good as Dak Prescott, his twice as good may net you another win at most, with far more salary to get it. Ironically, Prescott will soon get Stafford-level money while really being nothing more than a game manager. You'd be better off financially taking a mid-round QB, neutering him, and saving 25 million per season. However, in both cases, you'd still be going nowhere.

The Dolphins just did it about as well as you could. They took a cheap, distressed QB asset and are going to ride out his development for a season. If Rosen bombs, they've got a high-level pick. If he shows promise, they've got him for next to no salary commitment.

Tanking has been successfully in MLB, but it also requires more luck due to the bust rate of prospects. To win in the NBA you have to tank.

People want to give Dorsey a lot of credit for the Browns, but the reason why that team has so much young talent is also due to Sashi Brown adopting an MLB/NBA style of asset collection.

Chiefs were always middle/end of the draft under Dorsey and always acquired great talent. You dont need to tank in the NFL. Also given the length of careers of NBA/MLB guys compared to NFL it doesnt make as much sense to tank.

[CasselGotPeedOn]

It is if you think about it because I didnt blame everything on Alex Smith like others on here now did I?

You also thought we were doing perfectly fine with Smith, when in reality we were just spinning our wheels each season.

[PAChiefsGuy]

I’m not sure it can be overvalued. It’s a really big ****in’ deal when it comes to actually winning championships.

The issue is properly assessing the value of your own QB as it relates to the salary that he is going to be making with an extension. Teams have to find that law of diminishing returns line. Even then, most would be smart to keep their QB if he’s good at all.

Dan Marino 0 SBs
Philip Rivers 0 SBs
Drew Brees 1 SB
Aaron Rodgers 1 SB
Peyton Manning 2 SBs
Eli Manning 2 SBs

Id say the position can be overvalued. This isnt fantasy football the object is to win the SB.

[GloucesterChief]

Dan Marino 0 SBs
Philip Rivers 0 SBs
Drew Brees 1 SB
Aaron Rodgers 1 SB
Peyton Manning 2 SBs
Eli Manning 2 SBs

Id say the position can be overvalued. This isnt fantasy football the object is to win the SB.

Marino played in a league when just having a franchise QB wasn't enough. Rivers just chokes in the playoffs.

[Jamie]

The problem is, in terms of regular season wins, the jump from a trash QB to an average QB is bigger than the jump from average to elite. With an average QB you can win 7 to 10 games and keep your job, whereas a trash qb will almost certainly get you fired.

[Coochie liquor]

When Elway retires.

[PAChiefsGuy]

Marino played in a league when just having a franchise QB wasn't enough. Rivers just chokes in the playoffs.

Aaron Rodgers?

[rabblerouser]

When GMs and scouts stop overvaluing that position. That's when.

Yeah, not paying for premium QBs while investing high draft picks in the Oline/Dline is the way to go/Chiefs fans for years

[GloucesterChief]

Aaron Rodgers?

Yes, except Rodgers had a defense that did enough to get him a SB. In today's league Mario would be destroying teams.

[Coochie liquor]

In all honesty it’s hard to determine what many quarterbacks can do in this league because the Pats basically own this league and have since Brady got there.

[PAChiefsGuy]

Yes, except Rodgers had a defense that did enough to get him a SB. In today's league Mario would be destroying teams.

He would but it is still a team game. Brees destroys teams he has 1 SB. Eli has 2.

What other excuses are you fantasy football QB lovers gonna come up with?

Yeah, not paying for premium QBs while investing high draft picks in the Oline/Dline is the way to go/Chiefs fans for years

True but we did have #1 offense w Trent Green and Priest Holmes and we still lost due to a shit defense much like this season w Mahomes. Just saying overpaying for any position, QB included, isnt the way to go. Football will always be a team game.

[rabblerouser]

What other excuses are you fantasy football QB lovers gonna come up with?

Tom Brady.

['Hamas' Jenkins]

Chiefs were always middle/end of the draft under Dorsey and always acquired great talent. You dont need to tank in the NFL. Also given the length of careers of NBA/MLB guys compared to NFL it doesnt make as much sense to tank.

They acquired most of that talent because it came with sizable risk, usually due to character or injury concerns (Peters, Hill, Ford), and in most cases, it usually ended up biting them in the ass.

They also had to trade a future first to get Mahomes, which is a substantial risk on its own. It worked out perfectly, but it also wasn't a sure thing. If it was, he would have been the consensus #1, and no one would have taken any trade for him.

If you want a get a great QB in the NFL you either need to tank or get lucky. You can't count on luck, but you can improve your odds via tanking. And the higher you are in the draft, the more opportunities it affords you to trade down, which gives you more raffle tickets.

[Titty Meat]

They acquired most of that talent because it came with sizable risk, usually due to character or injury concerns (Peters, Hill, Ford), and in most cases, it usually ended up biting them in the ass.

They also had to trade a future first to get Mahomes, which is a substantial risk on its own. It worked out perfectly, but it also wasn't a sure thing. If it was, he would have been the consensus #1, and no one would have taken any trade for him.

If you want a get a great QB in the NFL you either need to tank or get lucky. You can't count on luck, but you can improve your odds via tanking. And the higher you are in the draft, the more opportunities it affords you to trade down, which gives you more raffle tickets.

How many of the elite QBs in today's game were taken #1 or in the top 5 even?

[BigCatDaddy]

When GMs and coaches can go 1-15 and not get fired.

Correct answer.

[pugsnotdrugs19]

Dan Marino 0 SBs
Philip Rivers 0 SBs
Drew Brees 1 SB
Aaron Rodgers 1 SB
Peyton Manning 2 SBs
Eli Manning 2 SBs

Id say the position can be overvalued. This isnt fantasy football the object is to win the SB.

Rivers is really good but he’s always choked in the big moments. Playing in the Brady/Manning era didn’t help.

Brees had horrible defenses for the longest time. The last few years they’ve been average or better on that side and the results are much more positive.

The Packers have had a terrible set of years where they missed on picks and refused to make impact free agent signings. Before that, they were a heavyweight every year with Rodgers.

Winning 2 SBs is a huge accomplishment so I don’t have much to say on the Manning brothers. Peyton would have won more if not for Belichick being the GOAT.

[PAChiefsGuy]

Tom Brady.

He takes a reduced salary though because he wants to win. What is he like the 14th highest paid QB?

[BWillie]

When GMs and scouts stop overvaluing that position. That's when.

I think they are undervaluing them, because now they are stuck with an avg QB and will fail to make progress. They should draft a new qB every year until you hit.

[Iconic]

When GMs and scouts stop overvaluing that position. That's when.

Wrong.

When GMs and scouts stop overvaluing mid-tier QB's. That's when.

The valuation of a QB is right where it should be. It's when teams extrapolate the value of the position to ANY guy that's the problem.

[Eleazar]

Just thinking outside the box here. What would it be like if a league like the NBA did away with the draft, because of this 'tanking' model that's really the only way to have a period of sustained success? What every team had the same pool of rookie dollars, but the players were just free agents who could sign with whatever team they chose after a certain date? Guys could choose based on what team they wanted to play for, where they could get playing time, where they could get the larger sum of that team's rookie dollars, play for their hometown, whatever.

[pugsnotdrugs19]

Here’s a simple question to ponder: if Kansas City had Mahomes in 2015 and 2016, do they win the Super Bowl one of those years?

Cause for me, I’m like 95% sure they do probably. And that’s really the point that I try to make with this topic.

For Mahomes, those teams were almost certainly good enough. Not for Smith, though.

[tk13]

It'll change when supply meets demand. There aren't that many people who can legitimately play QB well, so guys who are mid-range QBs get paid because the next option is using a QB who is terrible. I really don't see that changing unless there's a real serious infusion of QB talent into the league.

It's easy to say just keep churning through QBs, but if you do that as a GM you're probably going to be out on the street sooner rather than later. If you can find yourself a mid-range QB you can probably exist in that 8-8 to 10-6 range and buy yourself time to try and build a team. It's just part of the NFL culture. Owners and fans aren't just going to give a GM five years to try and work everything out.

[pugsnotdrugs19]

It'll change when supply meets demand. There aren't that many people who can legitimately play QB well, so guys who are mid-range QBs get paid because the next option is using a QB who is terrible. I really don't see that changing unless there's a real serious infusion of QB talent into the league.

It's easy to say just keep churning through QBs, but if you do that as a GM you're probably going to be out on the street sooner rather than later. If you can find yourself a mid-range QB you can probably exist in that 8-8 to 10-6 range and buy yourself time to try and build a team. It's just part of the NFL culture. Owners and fans aren't just going to give a GM five years to try and work everything out.

Fair assessment.

I think in a perfect world for a GM, he has an owner who will trust his evaluations long enough to work through a handful of years. You try to sell the owner on the idea that they’re better off drafting QB after QB until they finally hit on an elite guy as opposed to paying a mediocre level player a big chunk of your cap. Then you keep the elite guy once you finally land him, whether it takes one year or five even.

But owners aren’t that patient and coaches won’t survive losing for that long. So it won’t happen. San Francisco would have been a perfect spot to use this strategy when they gave Shanahan and Lynch twin 6-year contracts. They got Jimmy G though, who really still hasn’t proven himself worthy of that fat contract.

[SAUTO]

When GMs and coaches can go 1-15 and not get fired.

/ thread

[Reerun_KC]

When GMs and scouts stop overvaluing that position. That's when.

See Alex Smith as a prime example.

[Reerun_KC]

Here’s a simple question to ponder: if Kansas City had Mahomes in 2015 and 2016, do they win the Super Bowl one of those years?

Cause for me, I’m like 95% sure they do probably. And that’s really the point that I try to make with this topic.

For Mahomes, those teams were almost certainly good enough. Not for Smith, though.

Bingo. Spot on.

[NJChiefsFan]

Wrong.

When GMs and scouts stop overvaluing mid-tier QB's. That's when.

The valuation of a QB is right where it should be. It's when teams extrapolate the value of the position to ANY guy that's the problem.

This argument some try to make that because great QB's don't win it somehow proves something is misguided at best. QB isn't the only position that matters and that is true. But if you don't have a damn good-elite QB, you are basically just schedule filler. Possibly 1st or 2nd round playoff filler.

As you said, it's not the position that is over-valued. It's that GM's don't get that holding on to average-decent QB's is just wasting your own time, even if they can get in the playoffs now and then.

[kccrow]

I think the balance you have to find as a team related to your QB is how good you need to make your defense. The worse the QB, the better the defense has to be to compensate and the more money you have to spend there. I don't think teams can win a SB with the bottom 3rd of the QBs in the league, but I do think they could with the rest. So, as a GM you have to tier your money as such. I think they have overpaid for QBs in that middle tier and even in that bottom tier of late. If GMs don't learn soon to stop doing it and spend money elsewhere, then the parity that is supposed to exist will continue to not exist.

[Deberg_1990]

If you don’t have a Tom Brady, Rodgers or Mahomes, I mean someone has to start.

Would you rather a Flacco or Nathan Peterman?

[OrtonsPiercedTaint]

When billionaires do not have to go to message pillars for blow jobs

[Sweet Daddy Hate]

Wrong.

When GMs and scouts stop overvaluing mid-tier QB's. That's when.

The valuation of a QB is right where it should be. It's when teams extrapolate the value of the position to ANY guy that's the problem.

Correct. As was pointed out, the moment someone decided to pay Dalton like he was actually worth a s***, that's when it all went to hell and has been there ever since.

[Sweet Daddy Hate]

See Alex Smith as a prime example.


Exactly. Only continual losers would want to place value on that.

[44yearsandcounting]

When billionaires do not have to go to message pillars for blow jobs

Nominated

[GloucesterChief]

I think the balance you have to find as a team related to your QB is how good you need to make your defense. The worse the QB, the better the defense has to be to compensate and the more money you have to spend there. I don't think teams can win a SB with the bottom 3rd of the QBs in the league, but I do think they could with the rest. So, as a GM you have to tier your money as such. I think they have overpaid for QBs in that middle tier and even in that bottom tier of late. If GMs don't learn soon to stop doing it and spend money elsewhere, then the parity that is supposed to exist will continue to not exist.

Even then you have to be extremely lucky. Denver when it rode its D to a SB faced a AFC in which they were healthy but their opponents in the playoffs were all beat up. If the Bengals weren't such thugs they would of probably lost to Ben and Brown who had absolutely torched Denver's D a few weeks before.

Even Carolina was beat up for the SB too IIRC.

['Hamas' Jenkins]

How many of the elite QBs in today's game were taken #1 or in the top 5 even?

Luck, Rivers, Wentz, Mayfield, Newton, and Ryan were all top five guys, and there are other guys out there like Darnold that were top five and are still really young. I have less faith in Goff and Trubisky, but the former has won a few playoff games and could improve further (although I doubt it, to be honest).

It's about playing the percentages. You don't have a 100% chance of a hit, but the higher the pick, the better the odds, and if you do trade down, there's also a chance you can acquire more picks to better your odds, and you'll get more picks from a pick with higher value.

Mahomes landing in a situation like this is exceptionally rare. Given the weapons and coaching around him, it's arguable that it's the best situation any QB has been put in, ever, and at least since Steve Young in SF. If you could guarantee that a lot of these young QBs could fall in situations like this instead of what Rosen fell into in AZ, the hit rate would likely be much, much higher on them.

[Titty Meat]

Luck, Rivers, Wentz, Mayfield, Newton, and Ryan were all top five guys, and there are other guys out there like Darnold that were top five and are still really young. I have less faith in Goff and Trubisky, but the former has won a few playoff games and could improve further (although I doubt it, to be honest).

It's about playing the percentages. You don't have a 100% chance of a hit, but the higher the pick, the better the odds, and if you do trade down, there's also a chance you can acquire more picks to better your odds, and you'll get more picks from a pick with higher value.

Mahomes landing in a situation like this is exceptionally rare. Given the weapons and coaching around him, it's arguable that it's the best situation any QB has been put in, ever, and at least since Steve Young in SF. If you could guarantee that a lot of these young QBs could fall in situations like this instead of what Rosen fell into in AZ, the hit rate would likely be much, much higher on them.

Mahomes was the 3rd QB taken in that draft Ridgers, Wilson, Brady, etc.

You dont need a Sixers or Astros like tank to be good in football and guys like Vance Joesoh cant go 3-13 one year and still have a job. Tanking in the NFL is just pure fantasy on here.

['Hamas' Jenkins]

Just thinking outside the box here. What would it be like if a league like the NBA did away with the draft, because of this 'tanking' model that's really the only way to have a period of sustained success? What every team had the same pool of rookie dollars, but the players were just free agents who could sign with whatever team they chose after a certain date? Guys could choose based on what team they wanted to play for, where they could get playing time, where they could get the larger sum of that team's rookie dollars, play for their hometown, whatever.

You'd have to have a hard cap overall (example, make Zion eligible for a FA contract the same amount as a player five years in) or you'd end up with a glut of talent in the warm, major markets.

I also think the NBA should get rid of Bird rights and move to a strict, hard cap with no max player salaries (aside from the obvious fact that a player can't take up 100% of the cap) and analytics-driven performance bonuses scaled against usage. It would put a premium on drafting and developing players and wouldn't allow for one year cap anomalies, like what happened in GSW, to open the door for Durant to go there, or for them to give three guys 30+ million a year.

['Hamas' Jenkins]

Mahomes was the 3rd QB taken in that draft Ridgers, Wilson, Brady, etc.

You dont need a Sixers or Astros like tank to be good in football and guys like Vance Joesoh cant go 3-13 one year and still have a job. Tanking in the NFL is just pure fantasy on here.

The Browns just did it successfully.

You're right that you can't do it without putting your job at risk, but that's a problem driven by fan ignorance and bad ownership. And you can find a great QB a little later, but that's pure luck, because if it wasn't, every team could do it or the guys that could find them would be priceless. The Patriots deserve no credit for finding Brady nor the Seahawks Wilson. If they thought they would have been that good they would have taken them in the first round over the fear that someone would have jumped in front of them. Recall two weeks ago when Veach traded up for fear that someone might draft Mecole Hardman first? Think about how much more valuable a QB is than that. The risk would never be worth hoping they'd drop.

The Cowboys built the best dynasty of the 90's by tanking. It has been done successfully before.

[Buehler445]

The Browns just did it successfully.

You're right that you can't do it without putting your job at risk, but that's a problem driven by fan ignorance and bad ownership. And you can find a great QB a little later, but that's pure luck, because if it wasn't, every team could do it or the guys that could find them would be priceless. The Patriots deserve no credit for finding Brady nor the Seahawks Wilson. If they thought they would have been that good they would have taken them in the first round over the fear that someone would have jumped in front of them. Recall two weeks ago when Veach traded up for fear that someone might draft Mecole Hardman first? Think about how much more valuable a QB is than that. The risk would never be worth hoping they'd drop.

The Cowboys built the best dynasty of the 90's by tanking. It has been done successfully before.
I agree with most of what you are saying.

However, the Browns haven’t done it successfully, yet. And the dude that orchestrated it got shitcanned.

The problem is there are so many factors that have to go right in the NFL. The NBA is much less reliant on outside factors. It’s pretty much just talent. 3 good dudes and 4 dudes that aren’t ass and you’ll compete. Stevens and Kerr have schemed their way to marginal improvement but it’s all about talent mostly.

The NFL you have to have like 30 dudes that can perform competently and 6 or 7 at key positions that are legitimately good.

And then you have to avoid injuries which occur at a higher rate than the NBA or MLB

And then you have to have a coach that doesn’t hamstring you. But there are what? 4 or 5 guys you’re comfortable with running your team and there is pretty much 1 guy above the rest and then even he seemingly lost a super bowl by trying to be the smartest guy in the room?

Then you have to keep cunt ass officials from buttfucking you at the wrong time with bullshit objective calls.

There are just a lot of things that go into success, and unless your name is Belicheat those things are hard to come by.

[Chief Pagan]

Dan Marino 0 SBs
Philip Rivers 0 SBs
Drew Brees 1 SB
Aaron Rodgers 1 SB
Peyton Manning 2 SBs
Eli Manning 2 SBs

Id say the position can be overvalued. This isnt fantasy football the object is to win the SB.

Flip that around. How many SBs have been won in the last 25 years by middling QBS.
Not many.
1 or 2 Trent Dilfer types and a whole lot by QBs that were playing at a top 5 level the year they won.

Now that KC has a great QB, I hope the middle Alex Smith's of the world keep getting paid bank.

[Pitt Gorilla]

"Buy for a dollar, sell for two."

Football is the last of the three big sports to adopt analytics with zeal. Once it happens in earnest, you'll start seeing the smart teams dump these guys for the franchise killers they are. Football is like the NBA in that the worst place to be is in the middle.

There are a lot of QBs that can get a team to mediocre if all they do is adopt the Alex Smith model of quarterbacking. Those next four wins are exponentially more difficult. Even if a guy like Stafford is twice as good as Dak Prescott, his twice as good may net you another win at most, with far more salary to get it. Ironically, Prescott will soon get Stafford-level money while really being nothing more than a game manager. You'd be better off financially taking a mid-round QB, neutering him, and saving 25 million per season. However, in both cases, you'd still be going nowhere.

The Dolphins just did it about as well as you could. They took a cheap, distressed QB asset and are going to ride out his development for a season. If Rosen bombs, they've got a high-level pick. If he shows promise, they've got him for next to no salary commitment.

Tanking has been successfully in MLB, but it also requires more luck due to the bust rate of prospects. To win in the NBA you have to tank.

People want to give Dorsey a lot of credit for the Browns, but the reason why that team has so much young talent is also due to Sashi Brown adopting an MLB/NBA style of asset collection.do you know who is the highest drafted player on the Milwaukee Bucks? I know they drafted Parker, but he’s not helping them win.

[Pitt Gorilla]

Andy Dalton is making $16 million AAV on his 2014 extension. When he first signed it, that was a contract that busted the QB market into the runaway train that it has become.

The cap keeps climbing, but it's not outpacing the total amount of money made by QBs in this league. So many mediocre mid-tier QBs are eating up a ton of their team's salary cap space compared to what they actually deliver.

Since that Dalton contract, here's what some of these guys have cracked:

Ryan Tannehill got $19 million AAV in 2015
Tyrod Taylor got $15 million AAV in 2016
Flacco got a 3-year extension at $22 million AAV in 2016
Stafford gets $27 million AAV in 2017
Case Keenum getting $18 million AAV from the Donks in 2018
Kirk Cousins got $28 million AAV in 2018

Now, there are the QBs you sign to these ball-busting deals because they're top-of-the-league guys. I think you can sometimes get away with a guy like Stafford getting the extension he did, particularly if he's all your team has going for it. I think Russell Wilson and Aaron Rodgers probably deserved to re-set the price for a true franchise QB the way their contracts did.

So now what about the other guys who don't deserve all that money but get it anyway because they're QBs and the teams are too scared to move on? The whispers are now around that Dak's extension is going to reach beyond $30 million AAV.

Mariota, Winston, Goff, and Wentz are fast approaching their extension windows. Would you feel comfortable giving Aaron Rodgers money to any of those guys? Maaaybe Wentz, but only if he somehow proves he can stay healthy? Mahomes will get his when the time comes, but along with him, Chicago and Houston have to make choices on their game managers. Are they going to pay those turds all that dough? If Mahomes makes what he's going to make, and he gets his extension first, are the agents of Trubisky and Watson going to accept far less from Mahomes according to their actual respective worth to their teams?

When is a team going to put on the brakes and say, "No?" That kind of happened with Cousins, but not before Washington dragged out the process by paying Kirk all that ****ing money on those two tag contracts. Teams generally agree on limits for certain positions at mid-tier ability levels. Will they one day come to their senses in the same way regarding QBs and agree universally in saying "You can't Super Bowl with a game manager who takes up 15%+ of your salary cap"
I love that we don’t have to worry about this for another 20 years or so.

['Hamas' Jenkins]

do you know who is the highest drafted player on the Milwaukee Bucks? I know they drafted Parker, but he’s not helping them win.

Giannis grew three inches after they drafted him. That is a fluke.

[Pitt Gorilla]

Giannis grew three inches after they drafted him. That is a fluke.
Perhaps, but even 6-8 Giannis is dominating. And even if he is a drafted superstar (@1-15), who is their “Big 3” and where were they drafted? If tanking is necessary, they’re doing it wrong.

[RealSNR]

Question for you all:

Let's say Mariota plays in 2019 about the same as he has in the past. Maybe he sneaks the Titans into the playoffs, but his stat line is very Alex Smithian. Which is what he usually does.

It's time to negotiate. The agent says, "We're doing you a hometown discount. Marcus loves it here. He's not seeking to re-set the QB market."

The agent shows a number. It's a 3-year extension/re-signing (since I guess his rookie contract technically expired by that point) that equates to $26 million AAV. They're also seeking $45 million guaranteed at least, but they are willing to negotiate a few million under that.

Do you bite the bullet and take the deal?

[-King-]

The Browns just did it successfully.

You're right that you can't do it without putting your job at risk, but that's a problem driven by fan ignorance and bad ownership. And you can find a great QB a little later, but that's pure luck, because if it wasn't, every team could do it or the guys that could find them would be priceless. The Patriots deserve no credit for finding Brady nor the Seahawks Wilson. If they thought they would have been that good they would have taken them in the first round over the fear that someone would have jumped in front of them. Recall two weeks ago when Veach traded up for fear that someone might draft Mecole Hardman first? Think about how much more valuable a QB is than that. The risk would never be worth hoping they'd drop.

The Cowboys built the best dynasty of the 90's by tanking. It has been done successfully before.

How did the browns do it successfully when both the GM and coach of that "tank" got fired?

[-King-]

Question for you all:

Let's say Mariota plays in 2019 about the same as he has in the past. Maybe he sneaks the Titans into the playoffs, but his stat line is very Alex Smithian. Which is what he usually does.

It's time to negotiate. The agent says, "We're doing you a hometown discount. Marcus loves it here. He's not seeking to re-set the QB market."

The agent shows a number. It's a 3-year extension/re-signing (since I guess his rookie contract technically expired by that point) that equates to $26 million AAV. They're also seeking $45 million guaranteed at least, but they are willing to negotiate a few million under that.

Do you bite the bullet and take the deal?

Hell no. Mariota is a bust.

[smithandrew051]

Teams are terrified of moving on from a decent QB and having him succeed elsewhere only to have his replacement bust.

Doing that will not only get a coach/GM fired from that gig, but they may never work again in the NFL job in those positions.

If Patrick Mahomes busted, Andy Reid and Brett Veach/Dorsey would get fired in 2 years (Mahomes would have some time to develop before they pulled the trigger).

[KC_Lee]

Question for you all:

Let's say Mariota plays in 2019 about the same as he has in the past. Maybe he sneaks the Titans into the playoffs, but his stat line is very Alex Smithian. Which is what he usually does.

It's time to negotiate. The agent says, "We're doing you a hometown discount. Marcus loves it here. He's not seeking to re-set the QB market."

The agent shows a number. It's a 3-year extension/re-signing (since I guess his rookie contract technically expired by that point) that equates to $26 million AAV. They're also seeking $45 million guaranteed at least, but they are willing to negotiate a few million under that.

Do you bite the bullet and take the deal?

Been watching Mariota down here in Nashville since he came in. His career is on the same past as Alex Smith, different OC every year, turmoil with HC, etc. His ceiling is Alex Smith when he came to KC, but only if TN gives him the support (good HC, plenty of weapons, etc.) he needs. I don't ever see that happening since you have the "Patriot Way, Part 5" in power in TN.

Besides all that he can't stay healthy and I think his throwing arm, elbow particularly, has nerve damage from last year. That's never going to heal.

[tooge]

When GMs and scouts stop overvaluing that position. That's when.

Actually, that position is the most valuable on the field. I'd say it's when scouts and GM's stop reaching or missing on that position

[ChiliConCarnage]

They might do it when you start hearing about retread GMs like you do coaches. Most GMs get one shot and probably want to extend the only job where they'll make millions a year for as long as possible.

[tooge]

Dan Marino 0 SBs
Philip Rivers 0 SBs
Drew Brees 1 SB
Aaron Rodgers 1 SB
Peyton Manning 2 SBs
Eli Manning 2 SBs

Id say the position can be overvalued. This isnt fantasy football the object is to win the SB.

What you are missing here is that all of these guys have their team in position to be able to compete for a SB most years, with the exception of Eli, and he has won 2, which pretty much any fan would be happy with. If you don't pay the good ones and keep them around, then you generally don't have a realistic shot at winning a SB. You may win some playoff games here and there, like the Chiefs did, but they never really had a legit shot at beating the teams with Mannings and Bradys and Rothlisbergers when they were playing with just mid level guys.

[RealSNR]

If Patrick Mahomes busted, Andy Reid and Brett Veach/Dorsey would get fired in 2 years (Mahomes would have some time to develop before they pulled the trigger).

We still would have had Alex Smith. More wildcard appearances, more one-and-dones, but still would have had some winning seasons.

There's no way Reid would have gotten fired if Mahomes busted. A busted QB is bad for a coach, but it hardly means instant death.

[CaptainMorgan]

Dan Marino 0 SBs
Philip Rivers 0 SBs
Drew Brees 1 SB
Aaron Rodgers 1 SB
Peyton Manning 2 SBs
Eli Manning 2 SBs

Id say the position can be overvalued. This isnt fantasy football the object is to win the SB.

Is this your idea of "overvalued" or "overpaid" players? Only 4 QBs have ever won more than 2 SBs, yet you think Peyton and Eli, as two time SB winners, are good examples of the position being overvalued?

Rodgers and Brees? They won SBs and their teams are competing for the SB virtually every year. I fail to see how they are overvalued?

Even Rivers and Marino, who never won a SB, had/have their teams competitive almost every year and frequently in the post-season.

If you'd come up with a list of QBs who were handed out large contracts that actually did not match their value (i.e. Stafford, Carr come to mind off the top) your post would have made more sense.