I know this topic comes up every now and then....

[Fat Elvis]

...but after last year's offensive performance and the weapons we have on this team, should we revisit the idea of not punting, like, ever?

Mahomes averaged 8.8 yards per attempt.

Mahomes completed 66% of his passes.

The Chiefs converted 12 of 15 (80%) fourth down attempts last year.

It would seem that, more often than not, the Chiefs would sustain drives that would not only keep our defense fresh, but at the same time, wear down opposing offenses.

Even if the offense fails to convert and the other team gets the ball with good field position and scores, we know that Mahomes can overcome pretty much any deficit.

It would be a total moneyball move that could reshape the league.

http://awealthofcommonsense.com/2016/01/calculated-risks-from-the-coach-who-never-punts/

[digger]

what about when we are up by 35? Do you still not punt?

[gblowfish]

I think they may bring in some young guys to challenge Colquitt. He makes a shit ton of money for a guy who sometimes is called on to punt only once or twice a game.

[Fat Elvis]

what about when we are up by 35? Do you still not punt?

No. You bring in Henne and other 2nd stringers if you are trying to save the starters from injury.

[rabblerouser]

I remember when the Rams went without a kicker for a stretch in the early 2000s...

[Aspengc8]

I don't expect the offense to put up numbers like last year. Most was a by-product of having to go blow for blow with the other team because they couldn't get a defensive stop.

[Fat Elvis]

I also think you should rethink kickoffs given the new rules. If you can find a rugby player who is good with ball placement on dropkicks, just have them kick it high and rather short creating a jump ball scenario similar to a pass. If you kick to the 30-35 yard line and have enough height, your coverage team can run under it and make a play on the ball. If you don't recover, from that point, you've only given up 5-10 yards compared to a touchback. Recover the ball 20% of the time, and it is totally worth it.

[fan4ever]

If I remember correctly some years ago a statistician said that NFL teams would benefit from not punting as long as they were beyond their own 30 yard line or something like that.

[Eleazar]

If I remember correctly some years ago a statistician said that NFL teams would benefit from not punting as long as they were beyond their own 30 yard line or something like that.

While it might be true over the entire league for many seasons, there are too many situations where the risk is higher than is acceptable for failing on this particular attempt.

Punting when it's late in the 4th and you're ahead by 1 and on your own 31 yard line might not meet some statistician's analysis, but failing in that situation almost always loses the game. There are plenty of situations where failure reduces your chance of winning by much more than punting would reduce it.

None of this will ever happen IMO, because these are humans with jobs they don't want to lose, and aligning yourself with the long-standing conventions of what is acceptable risk in key situations is not going to get anybody fired.

[Deberg_1990]

What if it’s like 4th and 5 on your own 10 yard line. Do you not punt?

[Fat Elvis]

What if it’s like 4th and 5 on your own 10 yard line. Do you not punt?

The data says absolutely not. If you fail to convert, the opposing team has a 92% chance of scoring a touchdown; if you punt from that distance, however, the opposing team still has a 77% chance of scoring a touchdown. You haven't significantly lowered your risk of the other team scoring while you've completely eliminated any chance of reward for converting a fourth down.

[TribalElder]

I’m surprised there aren’t more kickers who can punt or punters who can kick fieldgoals/kickoffs

Would free up a roster spot

[Tribal Warfare]

Andy wants PMII's completion rate in 70% area. which could "regress" his yard per attempt.

If that's the only change then whoopty fuckin do when it comes to those hyperbolic quantitative statistic assholes.

[StinkBox]

I don't expect the offense to put up numbers like last year. Most was a by-product of having to go blow for blow with the other team because they couldn't get a defensive stop.

Agree. If the Chiefs defense can manage a stop every now an then, hell, just play middle of the road, they have a good shot at going the distance. They almost made it last year if that pea brain Ford didn't line up off sides.

[carcosa]

Every team should punt way less, but especially this team.

[threebag]

Let Kelce kick the fucking ball

[Shoes]

I also think you should rethink kickoffs given the new rules. If you can find a rugby player who is good with ball placement on dropkicks, just have them kick it high and rather short creating a jump ball scenario similar to a pass. If you kick to the 30-35 yard line and have enough height, your coverage team can run under it and make a play on the ball. If you don't recover, from that point, you've only given up 5-10 yards compared to a touchback. Recover the ball 20% of the time, and it is totally worth it.

The data says absolutely not. If you fail to convert, the opposing team has a 92% chance of scoring a touchdown; if you punt from that distance, however, the opposing team still has a 77% chance of scoring a touchdown. You haven't significantly lowered your risk of the other team scoring while you've completely eliminated any chance of reward for converting a fourth down.
I don't think a rugby player would be able to achieve the hang time necessary to give your gunners a chance. A drop kick the point of contact with the foot is a few inches off the ground at most? I think they would have a hard time getting the trajectory correct. Dickson from Seattle actually did this in an NFL game not too long ago... here is the video:

<iframe width="640" height="360" src="https://www.youtube.com/embed/wd3An4Nm2Y8" frameborder="0" allow="autoplay; encrypted-media" allowfullscreen></iframe>

I just think this would have been attempted a few times in the NFL before if it were feasible. Very hard to drop kick an NFL ball and I don't think it is likely that you'd even get a shot of recovering it. There's been players with rugby backgrounds in the NFL and we haven't seen it. I ain't buying the theory.

Secondly the issue I have with the article is mainly in regards to the stats. The article states that a professor analyzed 2000 football games- it does not explicitly state that these were 2000 NFL games, 2000 college, 2000 high school games or a combination of all three. In addition the if you kick the ball to the 40 yard line the opposing team has a 77% chance to score. That does not mean score a touchdown, that 77% number is a field goal or touchdown. A quick look at last years stats show the best TD% from the REDZONE was 73.5% (Pittsburgh). 2017 it was 69% (Jacksonville), 2016 it was Tennessee (72%).

I do believe that in the modern NFL that teams should be ultra agressive when it comes to offense. The way the game is played, the rules that have been introduced and how well offenses can move the ball has tipped the advantage to the offense. There are more 4th down situations now in football that I think it is a smart risk to go for it. That being said anyone thinking that it is a smart "money-ball" move to never punt isn't being realistic.

[suzzer99]

Coaches still punt way too much. But it's at least getting closer to optimal now. You don't see them punt from the opponent's 35 much anymore.

[threebag]

I was wondering about this subject just the other day over coffee at Dunkin Donuts

[Best22]

No.

Rely on the revamped defense to hold teams to under 24ppg

[Sweet Daddy Hate]

I also think you should rethink kickoffs given the new rules. If you can find a rugby player who is good with ball placement on dropkicks, just have them kick it high and rather short creating a jump ball scenario similar to a pass. If you kick to the 30-35 yard line and have enough height, your coverage team can run under it and make a play on the ball. If you don't recover, from that point, you've only given up 5-10 yards compared to a touchback. Recover the ball 20% of the time, and it is totally worth it.
I like this idea. A LOT.

[Pitt Gorilla]

I’ll admit, I love this. It’s not even the data-driven side of the argument; it’s the complete demoralization of the defense. I was always afraid some team would wise up and go for it on 4th and 1 against the Chiefs. To do it regularly against other defenses would be incredible.

[MAHOMO 4 LIFE!]

Colquitt needs a ring. He was our MVP for many years

[Sweet Daddy Hate]

I’ll admit, I love this. It’s not even the data-driven side of the argument; it’s the complete demoralization of the defense. I was always afraid some team would wise up and go for it on 4th and 1 against the Chiefs. To do it regularly against other defenses would be incredible.

You didn't notice BB telling Sutton to shove it up his hiney on several occasions?
I sure as hell did.

[Sweet Daddy Hate]

Colquitt needs a ring. He was our MVP for many years

Colquitt ain't no high vertical rugby kicker. The era of The Sly Fox is upon ye.:)

[RealSNR]

I’m still skeptical of the numbers and the strategy of “never punt.”

The conversion odds are only for converting on 4th down when you’re deep on your own side of the field. You still have the rest of the field to travel.

The opponent odds of scoring a TD are lower than your conversion odds, but that’s to score a TD, not just an opportunity to keep the ball.

People like to compare this to a heavy 3-shooting team in the NBA, but the reason it’s different is that teams don’t get an inherent advantage on offense if you miss from 3.

We’re seeing fewer punts these days. They’ll continue to drop. But I think if we ever get a coach that follows these advanced statistics to the utmost degree in game day decisions, the results aren’t going to produce what the stats say they should. It’s not going to be some wave of innovation. It’s probably going to work once or twice, then fail teams far more often in winning games than the owners/GM/fans are comfortable with

[MIAdragon]

what about when we are up by 35? Do you still not punt?

No, never let off the gas, ever.

[Rausch]

Colquitt needs a ring. He was our MVP for many years

He's still one of the best at dropping the ball inside the 5. That's a huge advantage for the defense...

[jjchieffan]

There are too many variables to say that this should be done. For example, I would trust Patrick Mahomes and our current offense to convert on 4th down much more than I would trust Blake Bortles and the Jags offense to convert. The toughness of the defense is a factor as well. I would feel better about our defense this year holding after a failed conversion than I would have last year. Then again, with last year's defense, you almost had to go for it because they were likely to give up a score from any point on the field anyway.