Good article on Mahomes.

[Yosef_Malkovitch]

Don't care if it's a repost because I don't have time to wade through everything to check.

https://www.theringer.com/nfl/2019/8/14/20803796/patrick-mahomes-kansas-city-chiefs-quarterback-history-outlook

[ptlyon]

YOU'D BETTER CARE, MISTER!

Thanks for posting.

[Hammock Parties]

Used to work with Rodger. He is so good.

[Munson]

I'm going out on a limb and predicting Mahomes will throw for 50/5,000 again.

History Says Patrick Mahomes Should Regress in 2019. History Has Never Seen Anyone Like Patrick Mahomes.

The Chiefs phenom had the best debut season of any quarterback in NFL history. Could he be even better in Year 2?

By Rodger Sherman Aug 14, 2019, 6:20am EDT

The NFL is valuing youth and innovation more than ever before. A year after the Rams made Sean McVay the youngest head coach in league history, Patrick Mahomes became the youngest MVP winner since Dan Marino. This offseason, an avalanche followed: The Cardinals threw caution to the wind and paired Kliff Kingsbury with Kyler Murray, the Packers ended the Mike McCarthy era, and the Bengals poached the Rams’ quarterbacks coach to be their new head coach. When did the NFL begin to resemble Silicon Valley? Welcome to Wunderkind Week, when we’ll dive deep into how the NFL became a young man’s league.

What goes up must come down, although it doesn’t often seem that way with Patrick Mahomes. Last October, Patriots coach Bill Belichick told reporters that Mahomes “could throw the ball out of the stadium,” speaking metaphorically about the arm strength of the Chiefs’ wunderkind quarterback. Only it wasn’t as metaphorical as Belichick probably believed. On one July afternoon, Mahomes went to Arrowhead Stadium to see if he could literally throw the ball out of the building. I like to think that the news chopper filming the proceedings was simply cruising above Kansas City and went to investigate the brown spheroids that kept soaring through its airspace.

What goes up must come down, and that’s somewhat alarming for Mahomes, whose stock is currently as high as a football hurtling over Arrowhead Stadium. His first season as the Chiefs’ starter was easily the best debut performance of any quarterback in league history. Mahomes became the third QB ever to throw 50 touchdown passes in a season, was named the runaway MVP, and nearly kept the Patriots from reaching the Super Bowl. (He was no match for a coin flip. You can’t have everything.)

Common sense would indicate that Mahomes is now due for regression. My colleague Danny Heifetz laid out the case for that earlier this month. No QB has ever thrown 40 or more touchdowns in an NFL season and then increased his output the following year, with an average drop-off of 18.8 touchdowns. (Take out Tom Brady’s 50-to-0 injury-related decline and it’s still an average dip of 16.) Factor in that the Chiefs will play one of the toughest schedules in football and that opponents have had a full year to game-plan against Mahomes, and it seems like a step back is inevitable. How could Mahomes keep up that quality of play?

Of course, common sense may be ill-suited to analyze a player who decided it was reasonable to throw no-look passes during NFL games. Mahomes is reportedly working on behind-the-back throws now, like he’s an NFL Street character who broke contain and escaped from a PlayStation 2. (On the topic of Mahomes as a video game character: Common sense also faltered when Madden’s programmers gave Mahomes the strongest arm, best mobile-throwing capabilities, and best accuracy on deep balls of any quarterback in the game—all perfectly reasonable takes—and looked up to realize they had created a character who can’t be beat.)

At 23 years old, Mahomes came into the NFL and did things the league had never seen. What goes up must come down, but if anyone has a trajectory that can defy gravity, it’s the guy who spends his free time throwing footballs over buildings.

Mahomes’s 2018 campaign was inarguably one of the 10 greatest passing seasons in league history. He racked up the third-most passing touchdowns ever (50), the eighth-most passing yardage ever (5,097), and the eighth-highest passer rating ever (113.8). He also recorded the seventh-highest adjusted net yards per pass attempt (8.9—that’s post-merger, minimum 100 attempts) and the 11th-highest touchdown percentage (8.6—again, post-merger, minimum 100 attempts). There have been few seasons as productive as Mahomes’s 2018, and few as efficient. For Mahomes to have been that productive and efficient is absolutely ridiculous. I was going to compare Mahomes’s season to a baseball player’s hitting .350 with 50 home runs, but six guys have done that throughout MLB history. No NFL player except Mahomes has thrown 50 touchdowns while averaging more than 8.5 yards per attempt. (On second thought, batting average is probably akin to completion percentage, and yards per attempt is more like slugging percentage. I’m getting really bogged down in this baseball analogy. Please ignore it.)


Most of the other all-time great NFL passing seasons have been delivered by established veterans. Peyton Manning was 37 when he set an NFL record by throwing 55 touchdowns in 2013. Tom Brady was 30 during his 50-touchdown campaign in 2007. All seven quarterback seasons that topped Mahomes’s 2018 passing yards total came from QBs 32 or older. That group includes Drew Brees’s age-32, -33, -34, and -37 seasons. (Statistically speaking, Brees is the GOAT.)


Mahomes is 23. He’ll turn 24 ahead of Kansas City’s Week 3 game against the Ravens. Zendaya, who just played a high schooler in Euphoria, is about a year younger than Mahomes. Mahomes is six months younger than Baker Mayfield, the reigning rookie of the year, and six months younger than Will Grier, the QB whom the Panthers took in the third round of this spring’s draft to back up Cam Newton. Mahomes is about three weeks older than Shaker Samman, The Ringer’s editorial assistant who may have fact-checked this piece.

Quarterbacks are not supposed to be finished products at 24. Chase Stuart of Football Perspective analyzed 77 QBs who managed at least three above-average NFL passing seasons and found that quarterbacks generally peak at 29 years old, with a clearly defined prime between the ages of 27 and 31. A 2011 post by Brian Burke (now of ESPN) found roughly the same peak, with quarterbacks rapidly improving until age 26 before a plateau that peaks at 29 and drops off after age 30. Rotowire proposed that quarterback production peaks slightly earlier, at age 27, but Mahomes is not yet 27. He’s 23.

Only one under-25 quarterback season even somewhat resembles Mahomes’s 2018: Dan Marino’s 1984 effort, which was his second as the Dolphins’ starting quarterback. At 23, Marino passed for 5,084 yards with 48 touchdowns, both NFL records at the time. Nobody broke Marino’s touchdown record for 20 years, until Manning in 2004; nobody broke Marino’s yardage record until 2011, when both Brady and Brees did. The 1984 Dolphins went 14-2 en route to a berth in Super Bowl XIX, and Marino won league MVP.

It’s incredible to realize that Mahomes’s only reasonable age-appropriate comparison is a seven-time All-Pro and first-ballot Hall of Famer. However, it’s also worth noting that Marino’s records standing for 20-plus years reveals that he never surpassed his own prolific age-23 performance. After 1984, Marino threw at least 20 interceptions in four of the next five seasons; after averaging 9.0 yards per attempt in ’84, he would never even crack 8.2. Marino did lead the league in passing yardage and touchdowns on several occasions, but never won MVP nor made the Super Bowl again.

There seem to be two truths about what’s next for Mahomes, and they cannot coexist. Mahomes is only 23, and thus is expected to get better. But few QBs coming off all-time great seasons have delivered a superior season for an encore. The bell curve of a typical NFL starting quarterback’s career indicates that the rise of Mahomes will continue; the history of NFL quarterbacks suggests that Mahomes can’t ascend much higher.

The first pass Mahomes threw in a 2019 preseason game was as perfect as a throw could be, a 25-yarder that dropped smoothly over the helmet of a defender and into the waiting arms of tight end Travis Kelce. It looked like a casual toss to a wide-open target, not a pass fit precisely into a tight window.

And the videos trickling out of Chiefs camp show Mahomes doing the same stuff that made him a sensation last year. Here’s a casual 60ish-yard pass to the QB’s newest receiver, speedster Mecole Hardman. The way Mahomes unhinges his shoulder to generate throwing power reminds me of an anaconda opening its jaw to swallow a capybara.

Mahomes plays quarterback differently than anybody else ever has. This was clear when he was putting up 700-yard games at Texas Tech; it was clear when he was lighting preseason and Week 17 defenses on fire as Alex Smith’s backup. The Madden ratings aren’t wrong: Mahomes genuinely seems to throw the ball harder and farther than any of his peers, and he’s more comfortable releasing the ball from a variety of arm slots and angles.


What Mahomes does in 2019 could reset the standard for what NFL phenoms are capable of. History tells us that he should come back to earth after an off-the-charts 2018 season. It’s possible that we’ve already seen the best of him, just as the world saw the best of Marino in 1984. If this proves true, Mahomes will still be a legend, but that legend will be limited.

Yet if Mahomes keeps playing at or above the level he did in 2018? If one of the most talented quarterbacks to ever play actually improves in a scheme designed by a passing-game genius (Andy Reid) that’s stocked with dangerous playmakers? Well, then maybe we didn’t just witness one remarkable season; maybe we witnessed the birth of a GOAT.

What goes up must come down, but when Mahomes cocks back and hurls the ball skyward, that momentarily seems untrue. Where footballs thrown by other QBs would drop, his sail on, past the horizon of the stadium rim. Perhaps one of his passes will hit the necessary velocity to escape earth’s atmosphere and become the first football thrown by a human to reach another planet. Logic tells us that Mahomes should regress this fall; I choose to believe that his singular trajectory will lift him even higher.

[Kman34]

“The way Mahomes unhinges his shoulder to generate throwing power reminds me of an anaconda opening its jaw to swallow a capybara.”

This is an awesome piece of writing...:clap:

[O.city]

I understand the "he will regress with numbers" guys just because it's never been done before.

But it's also likely Mahomes is just an outlier.

[Mecca]

So on twitter, the PFF guy Sam Monson or whatever his fucking name is...basically admitted the way they do "should have been INT's" is fucked up.

He said if the defense jumps offsides to give a QB a free play and they take a shot that is picked off, they still chart it as a "should have been an INT" play because the QB shouldn't just get a pass for a mistake.

[Clyde Frog]

So on twitter, the PFF guy Sam Monson or whatever his fucking name is...basically admitted the way they do "should have been INT's" is fucked up.

He said if the defense jumps offsides to give a QB a free play and they take a shot that is picked off, they still chart it as a "should have been an INT" play because the QB shouldn't just get a pass for a mistake.

https://media0.giphy.com/media/l4Ho0At2UD2d7WyD6/giphy.gif

[bobbything]

So on twitter, the PFF guy Sam Monson or whatever his ****ing name is...basically admitted the way they do "should have been INT's" is ****ed up.

He said if the defense jumps offsides to give a QB a free play and they take a shot that is picked off, they still chart it as a "should have been an INT" play because the QB shouldn't just get a pass for a mistake.
Ah...well then, I want Tom Brady's interception in the AFCCG to be noted. He threw a pick that "should have been an interception" on the biggest play of the game.

Nobody likes to talk about that though because Tom Brady is infallible.

[Halfcan]

50 / 5000 MVP 50 / 50000 MVP

The greatest two back to back seasons in NFL history.

Mahomes will be 24 years old with 100 TD's and over 10,000 yards- plus 2 MVP awards.

[chiefzilla1501]

The NFL may be just finally realizing how good he is for the game. I still don't think that they get it since they still continue to pump up bland teams like the chargers and rivers. I'd venture to say he's the most important thing to happen to the NFL since Peyton Manning. Exciting to watch, super duper likeable, and I can't stress enough how great his Twitter game is. I don't know that we've seen much like this. Rodgers and brees are superstars but theyre also pretty boring when they're not taking snaps.

[suzzer99]

Ah...well then, I want Tom Brady's interception in the AFCCG to be noted. He threw a pick that "should have been an interception" on the biggest play of the game.

Nobody likes to talk about that though because Tom Brady is infallible.

Brady didn't know it was a free play though. Ford didn't jump and the far sideline ref just lightly tossed the flag.

The announcers never saw it either - which made it oh so extra frustrating - because they kept saying it was a super late flag.

[suzzer99]

Mahomes might not regress. But the numbers will unless our defense is just god-awful again. He shouldn't need to throw 4.2 TDs a game. Some of those should be runs at the end of long grindy drives to run clock with a big lead.

[Halfcan]

With the NFL focusing on pass interference more this year- our WR's are going to burn defenses on a regular basis. They won't be able to hold like the Pat's secondary does.

[Halfcan]

Mahomes might not regress. But the numbers will unless our defense is just god-awful again. He shouldn't need to throw 4.2 TDs a game. Some of those should be runs at the end of long grindy drives to run clock with a big lead.

Have you been watching camp?

They have been focusing on the deep passing game.

1st play of the preseason was a long strike to Kelce- which looked so effortless it might as well have been a dump off. I don't think the Chief's have any intention on long clock eating drives unless it is to seal a game in the 4th quarter. They want to strike fast- rack up points to turn the other team 1 dimensional and take away their running game trying to keep up.

Mahomes to Hill for a TD takes 12 seconds.

[suzzer99]

Have you been watching camp?

They have been focusing on the deep passing game.

1st play of the preseason was a long strike to Kelce- which looked so effortless it might as well have been a dump off. I don't think the Chief's have any intention on long clock eating drives unless it is to seal a game in the 4th quarter. They want to strike fast- rack up points to turn the other team 1 dimensional and take away their running game trying to keep up.

Mahomes to Hill for a TD takes 12 seconds.

Chiefs up go up by 14 with 7 minutes left.

Instead of giving up a TD drive like they would have all last year, this time our defense stops the other team.

We get the ball back with 5 minutes left in their territory - up 14. We're not going to be throwing bombs like we might be only up 7 and on our own 25.

See what I'm saying?

Reid has never been a "rub it in" coach like BB and Sean Payton have been at times. It's just not his style - nor is it Mahomes style. We don't need to give teams an excuse to cheap shot Mahomes.

[Lprechaun]

They want to strike fast- rack up points to turn the other team 1 dimensional and take away their running game trying to keep up.


This exactly. When you KNOW you can do something you do it. If the defense gets stops great, but as of right now do what you know for a fact you can do.

[St. Patty's Fire]

The NFL may be just finally realizing how good he is for the game. I still don't think that they get it since they still continue to pump up bland teams like the chargers and rivers. I'd venture to say he's the most important thing to happen to the NFL since Peyton Manning. Exciting to watch, super duper likeable, and I can't stress enough how great his Twitter game is. I don't know that we've seen much like this. Rodgers and brees are superstars but theyre also pretty boring when they're not taking snaps.

Brees is boring, but a cool dude. Rodgers is just a dick. Completely unlikeable off the field.

Mahomes is the golden boy. He was sculpted in a lab to be a star QB. As long as he balls out to start the season (he will) he’s gonna dominate football talk. I can get the skepticism from some since it really is “just one season”, but we all know it wasn’t a fluke lol.

[Halfcan]

Chiefs up go up by 14 with 7 minutes left.

Instead of giving up a TD drive like they would have all last year, this time our defense stops the other team.

We get the ball back with 5 minutes left in their territory - up 14. We're not going to be throwing bombs like we might be only up 7 and on our own 25.

See what I'm saying?

Reid has never been a "rub it in" coach like BB and Sean Payton have been at times. It's just not his style - nor is it Mahomes style. We don't need to give teams an excuse to cheap shot Mahomes.

I agree completely- that is why I put 4th quarter drives.

4 TD's a game passing could be the average for this offense for how loaded it is. How many TD's will Mahomes get on simple little shovel passes to Hardman and Reek who take them all the way? Or 10 yard slants to Watkins who breaks it open for a score?

Not all of his passing TD's will be bombs- with teams worried about the deep ball- the short gains should be wide open all day. And we have the guys that can take these to the house.

We play some tough teams- so I have my doubts that this defense will be able to shut them down and protect leads. We need to score every drive- no matter how much we are up.

[St. Patty's Fire]

Chiefs up go up by 14 with 7 minutes left.

Instead of giving up a TD drive like they would have all last year, this time our defense stops the other team.

We get the ball back with 5 minutes left in their territory - up 14. We're not going to be throwing bombs like we might be only up 7 and on our own 25.

See what I'm saying?

Reid has never been a "rub it in" coach like BB and Sean Payton have been at times. It's just not his style - nor is it Mahomes style. We don't need to give teams an excuse to cheap shot Mahomes.

Ehhhhhhh Reid can be cheeky man. I mean, Dontari Poe threw a TD pass when the game was over, if that isn’t flexing I don’t know what is. And Andy loves to flex his toys.

[suzzer99]

Denver fans still bitch about that one too.

We've got the golden goose to protect now.

[Halfcan]

This exactly. When you KNOW you can do something you do it. If the defense gets stops great, but as of right now do what you know for a fact you can do.

Other guys that have been up to camp watching might have a different opinion- but what I am seeing is a different philosophy from Andy that I have never seen.

I mean, good lord- how many bombs has Mahomes thrown for TD's in camp so far? Amazing!

The Ferrari is out of the garage and in top racing shape!

[Andoverer]

Chiefs up go up by 14 with 7 minutes left.

Instead of giving up a TD drive like they would have all last year, this time our defense stops the other team.

We get the ball back with 5 minutes left in their territory - up 14. We're not going to be throwing bombs like we might be only up 7 and on our own 25.

See what I'm saying?

Reid has never been a "rub it in" coach like BB and Sean Payton have been at times. It's just not his style - nor is it Mahomes style. We don't need to give teams an excuse to cheap shot Mahomes.

Maybe this is true, but maybe Reid will never forget (HE BETTER NOT) how much we lead the Colts at halftime a few playoff seasons ago. The game sure seemed out of reach for the Colts at that moment :hmmm:

I say keep the pedal to the metal until the other team is mathematically eliminated enough to not be able to score enough to come back and bite you, cuz that playoff bite was one of the worst I've ever known.

[Halfcan]

Maybe this is true, but maybe Reid will never forget (HE BETTER NOT) how much we lead the Colts at halftime a few playoff seasons ago. The game sure seemed out of reach for the Colts at that moment :hmmm:

I say keep the pedal to the metal until the other team is mathematically eliminated enough to not be able to score enough to come back and bite you, cuz that playoff bite was one of the worst I've ever known.

We saw this with the Steelers game last year- it looked like a blowout- then with some help from the refs and a Conley fumble, they were right back in it.

I think we are going to see the Chiefs put up 35 to 45 a game this year. I am just not sure how you stop them without keeping them off the field.

[chiefzilla1501]

Chiefs up go up by 14 with 7 minutes left.

Instead of giving up a TD drive like they would have all last year, this time our defense stops the other team.

We get the ball back with 5 minutes left in their territory - up 14. We're not going to be throwing bombs like we might be only up 7 and on our own 25.

See what I'm saying?

Reid has never been a "rub it in" coach like BB and Sean Payton have been at times. It's just not his style - nor is it Mahomes style. We don't need to give teams an excuse to cheap shot Mahomes.

I hope that mentality changes. Not that we should run up the score. But I'm tired of Andy Reid sitting on leads only to let the defense crawl back into a game we should be blowing out. My hope is that mahomes becomes powerful and smart enough to push back against Reid when he does that. He may be too young to have earned that right but should be there soon hopefully

[Shaid]

I think that's just it, Mahomes is basically wired to go score. He's going to do that the easiest way and it just leads us to score quickly. That should help. Other teams will probably try slow drives to keep our offense off the field and keep it close, hope a mistake lets them get up on us or at least keep up.

There will be times that it will come down to who can score last. That's where we didn't do well last year, we scored too fast and gave the other team time to score again. If I see one weakness in Mahomes, it's that he needs to be able to grind down that clock. It's how the Pats win all the damn time. So many close games where they just don't give the other team time to score at the end. They know how to ice the game. Pat learns that and I have zero doubt he'll have multiple Superbowls and be regarded as the GOAT. He's a supernatural talent with great smarts and character. Just learn to ice the game.

[RedRaider56]

nice article. thanks for posting.

[T-post Tom]

Goosebumps. Goosebumps. Goosebumps.

Excellent read. Thank you for posting.

[Kman34]

Chiefs up go up by 14 with 7 minutes left.

Instead of giving up a TD drive like they would have all last year, this time our defense stops the other team.

We get the ball back with 5 minutes left in their territory - up 14. We're not going to be throwing bombs like we might be only up 7 and on our own 25.

See what I'm saying?

Reid has never been a "rub it in" coach like BB and Sean Payton have been at times. It's just not his style - nor is it Mahomes style. We don't need to give teams an excuse to cheap shot Mahomes.

Up by 14 with 5min left isn’t a slam dunk.. anything can happen.. INT for a TD.. fumble.. punt return TD.. then an onside kick .. up 21 is the scenario I’d like better..

[CoMoChief]

Ive said this a thousand times...and so have others...

Just because Mahomes doesn't put up the same numbers as he did in 2018, doesn't necessarily mean he's regressed.

If the defense steps up, and the Chiefs are in position more to step on throat of their opponent, run the clock more at the end of the game rather than constantly play in shootouts, then his numbers won't be as inflated.

But if he's putting offense in position to score more, and the Chiefs are punting less, then he's getting better...getting better at moving the chains and staying on the field and getting the ball into the endzone is what matters most.

Sure that sounds conservative...I'm all for scoring TD's every time Mahomes touches the ball...but situational football is ok when it's called for.

[suzzer99]

Up by 14 with 5min left isn’t a slam dunk.. anything can happen.. INT for a TD.. fumble.. punt return TD.. then an onside kick .. up 21 is the scenario I’d like better..

Well they're still going to run it or throw a little shorter - and if nothing else there's a shorter field to work with. Both of those will drag down the yardage, productivity and efficiency stats.

I think if you go back and look last year - a ton of the big throws and a lot of the scoring was the 4th Q - because we had to. If we don't have to, that will naturally drop off some. And that's OK.

Also at least 4 of Mahomes' TD passes last year were basically hand-offs. If those don't work or we don't try them as much - that's 4 less TD passes. And if we still score but with a pitch or actual handoff - that's also OK.