Betting Gurus...please explain the 3.5 Chiefs spread

[BlackOp]

I've been watching the point spread on the Chiefs/Jags game for a while.

It started at 5 points a few weeks ago...which seems about right. It has stayed at 3.5 for over a week now...even after news of their LT and back-up being out.

I read that 70% of the money is on the Chiefs...wouldn't they raise it back to 5 if this were the case?

It seems out of whack to me, considering KC was a historic offense last year. They averaged 35 points a game. All of their losses came by 10-6 or greater play-off teams. Mahomes has never lost to a team with a losing record...and the Jags were 5-11.

Reid is 5-1 in openers with KC....

[KChiefs1]

The sharps are on the Jags.

[BWillie]

Chiefs by seventy.

[BlackOp]

The sharps are on the Jags.

It doesn't seem too sharp to hedge on Foles in a new system with only 4 preseason drives...vs. Reid and a QB that threw for 50 TDs.

Their only score was aided by a PI call...the rest looked shaky at best with a few 3 and outs.

Chiefs are a SB favorite...yet Vegas sees them as barely a FG better than a 5-11 team with no tackles? They railroaded NE with Smith in the opener two years ago...

[O.city]

It’s week one on the road, with a new defense we really don’t know much about

[BlackOp]

It’s week one on the road, with a new defense we really don’t know much about

Yeah...but Foles is in a new system too....that takes more time than a defense.

I just dont see how they think they are going to match points with Mahomes/Reid in the opener...road or not.

[O.city]

Yeah...but Foles is in a new system too....that takes more time than a defense.

I just dont see how they think they are going to match points with Mahomes/Reid in the opener...road or not.

Jaguars have a good defense especially dl

[Ubeja Vontell]

The Chiefs opened up on the road last season put 38 on the Chargers, then back on the road in wk 2 tossing 42 at the Steelers.

Nick Foles vs Patrick Mahomes, ha!

Andy Reid is like 6-1 in week one with the Chiefs SU.

Who are those Jag receivers?

KC has this 34-14.

[New World Order]

Looks like it's a reverse line movement game.

[saphojunkie]

The sharps are on the Jags.

The sharps will lose

[ChiefaRoo]

Vegas is wrong. Chiefs win this and cover.

[Chargem]

Bookies mostly make money on the margin, they aim to make a profit regardless of the outcome they don't really express an opinion on a game after setting the initial line. If the money flowing in is giving them a profit margin on either side the line won't move. It's pretty simple.

[Couch-Potato]

I saw a story about a collective bet of $25k for 6-1 Chiefs win SB, but this seems like a solid opp.

CP, what is your preferred betting site?

[Chiefnj2]

My guess, is these factors led to the low point spread
Road game
Upper 90s game time temperature
Bortles had 4 or 5 turnovers
Foles is better than Bortles
Jax ran the ball well last year
Defenses generally start faster so less points

[Coogs]

Bookies mostly make money on the margin, they aim to make a profit regardless of the outcome they don't really express an opinion on a game after setting the initial line. If the money flowing in is giving them a profit margin on either side the line won't move. It's pretty simple.

If 70% of the money is coming in on the Chiefs, would there be a profit margin on either side of the line?

[wazu]

Listening in on a few gambler prediction shows this week I was amazed. They are all on the Jags. Lemme make their case based on what I've heard:

1. Last year the Jags held Mahomes to zero TDs and 2 INTs (Although he ran one in)
2. Last year the Chiefs took the ball away 4 times, including a defensive score
3. Foles not Bortles
4. Florida is so hot and humid! Chiefs have spent summer in that cool KC weather

That's all I've been able to get. Of these points I give some credence to #2 and #3. I will say the Jaguars look to have a pass-happy offense and I do think we're vulnerable at CB. All that said we won in a blowout last year, in a game where Mahomes threw zero TDs and 2 INTs. To bet on a spread this small I think you have to believe the Jaguars have a legit chance to win the game. Apparently people do. Guess we'll see.

[BWillie]

I saw a story about a collective bet of $25k for 6-1 Chiefs win SB, but this seems like a solid opp.

CP, what is your preferred betting site?

Heyy how you doin? Bovada or Bet Online my friend.

[Coogs]

Listening in on a few gambler prediction shows this week I was amazed. They are all on the Jags. Lemme make their case based on what I've heard:

1. Last year the Jags held Mahomes to zero TDs and 2 INTs (Although he ran one in)
2. Last year the Chiefs took the ball away 4 times, including a defensive score
3. Foles not Bortles
4. Florida is so hot and humid! Chiefs have spent summer in that cool KC weather

That's all I've been able to get. Of these points I give some credence to #2 and #3. I will say the Jaguars look to have a pass-happy offense and I do think we're vulnerable at CB. All that said we won in a blowout last year, in a game where Mahomes threw zero TDs and 2 INTs. To bet on a spread this small I think you have to believe the Jaguars have a legit chance to win the game. Apparently people do. Guess we'll see.


I have always wondered if these "experts" work for Vegas, and try to get a lot of late money to come in on the low side of the betting to even the money out come game time.

Hope that made sense.

[njchiefs]

Home field is worth 3 points. So to the betting world, the Chiefs are about a touchdown better a team than the Jags, knowing nothing about the new lineups. Sounds about right.

[Why Not?]

Home field is worth 3 points. So to the betting world, the Chiefs are about a touchdown better a team than the Jags, knowing nothing about the new lineups. Sounds about right.

This. Also, NFL. Most NFL lines, if you adjust the 3 points, end up at 6.5 or less. For instance, the Seahawks are in Seattle favored by 9.5 over the Bungles. Play on a neutral site, that number becomes 6.5. Chiefs are on the road favored by 3.5. Move that to a neutral site and it becomes.....6.5 Play it at Arrowhead and it would be closer to 10. That’s not an exact science and obviously the shittier or better the team and the later in the season, the more that 3 pts can be tweaked, but that’s a rough overall. For week 1, on the road against a good defense, -3.5 seems right. But don’t be surprised if it ends up closer to -6.5. Blowouts in the NFL are mathematical anomalies when it comes to betting.

[baitism]

The hot and humid thing cracks me up. KC summers are just as hot and humid as Jacksonville.

[Nzoner]

This. Also, NFL. Most NFL lines, if you adjust the 3 points, end up at 6.5 or less. For instance, the Seahawks are in Seattle favored by 9.5 over the Bungles. Play on a neutral site, that number becomes 6.5. Chiefs are on the road favored by 3.5. Move that to a neutral site and it becomes.....6.5 Play it at Arrowhead and it would be closer to 10. That’s not an exact science and obviously the shittier or better the team and the later in the season, the more that 3 pts can be tweaked, but that’s a rough overall. For week 1, on the road against a good defense, -3.5 seems right. But don’t be surprised if it ends up closer to -6.5. Blowouts in the NFL are mathematical anomalies when it comes to betting.

:thumb:

[KCJake]

It’s week one on the road, with a new defense we really don’t know much about

Yep.
Historically, visiting teams rarely win opening weekend. This game will be close

[Nzoner]

Yep.
Historically, visiting teams rarely win opening weekend. This game will be close

7 road teams won last year in week one.

[King_Chief_Fan]

The NFL and Refs will decide this game!
says the conspiracy people...lol

[Nzoner]

The NFL and Refs will decide this game!
says the conspiracy people...lol

:)

<iframe width="560" height="315" src="https://www.youtube.com/embed/vS40iaejHT0" frameborder="0" allow="accelerometer; autoplay; encrypted-media; gyroscope; picture-in-picture" allowfullscreen></iframe>

[htismaqe]

:)

<iframe width="560" height="315" src="https://www.youtube.com/embed/vS40iaejHT0" frameborder="0" allow="accelerometer; autoplay; encrypted-media; gyroscope; picture-in-picture" allowfullscreen></iframe>

Illuminati confirmed!

[Nzoner]

Illuminati confirmed!

**Cue Twilight Zone theme**

[Nzoner]

Who are those Jag receivers?



Dede Westbrook is going to have a great season.

[Bearcat]

It'll all be clear when the game is over and you can form a conspiracy to fit what already happened.

[Halfcan]

Yep.
Historically, visiting teams rarely win opening weekend. This game will be close

If by Close you mean the Chiefs will win by at least 17 points- I agree.

[Bearcat]

Yep.
Historically, visiting teams rarely win opening weekend. This game will be close

2018: 7-9
2017: 8-7
2016: 9-7
2015: 6-10 ...oh shit, you're right!
2014: 6-10 ...oh god!
2013: 7-9
2012: 7-9

And Mahomes is 1-0 all time on the road on opening day when playing in a coastal city south of 36° N latitude.

[Nzoner]

2018: 7-9
2017: 8-7
2016: 9-7
2015: 6-10 ...oh shit, you're right!
2014: 6-10 ...oh god!
2013: 7-9
2012: 7-9



2019 1-0 so far ;)

[Bearcat]

2019 1-0 so far ;)

<iframe src="https://giphy.com/embed/mks5DcSGjhQ1a" width="480" height="351" frameBorder="0" class="giphy-embed" allowFullScreen></iframe><p><a href="https://giphy.com/gifs/boom-mks5DcSGjhQ1a">via GIPHY</a></p>

[BlackOp]

There is not one player on the Jags offense that is better than KC...which is kind of crazy.

They have maybe 3-4 players on defense that are...both corners, Jack and?

[MahiMike]

Foles had 4 plays during the preseason...

[Megatron96]

It's my understanding that the spread is dictated by the money being bet. I'm guessing that most of that "70% on the Chiefs" happened early, so the line moved up to +4, +4.5, +5 pts. Then the sharps moved in and are trying to cash in on that 7 pt. differential. All that $$$ pouring in for the Jags moved the line back to +3.5.

Again just guessing, but that feels about right to me.

On the bright side, the Chiefs are now 3 pt favs in my book at +100, so I stand to make out pretty easy.

[KC_Connection]

Road game and Foles. But Chiefs will cover, I'm sure.

[KChiefs1]

Jags beat the Patriots last season at home.

[Ubeja Vontell]

Yep.
Historically, visiting teams rarely win opening weekend. This game will be close

Never go with.....teams....just look at the team in question.

Some teams suck heading into a bye week while others shine.
Some teams suck coming off a bye, while others shine.

You look for "spots".

Cowboys coming off a bye ATS......4-12.
Eagles heading into a bye ATS....12-4

So we have a 24-8 trend favoring the Eagles.

Now the Cowboys are 4-12 ATS as road dogs,
Eagles 12-4 ATS as home fav.

So Eagles....enjoy a 48-16 trend. Talk about a powerful "spot" there it is.

I know I know.....how can all that stuff matter, it's a different season. Trust me it all matters and is stuff serious gamblers look at.

[Chargem]

Never go with.....teams....just look at the team in question.

Some teams suck heading into a bye week while others shine.
Some teams suck coming off a bye, while others shine.

You look for "spots".

Cowboys coming off a bye ATS......4-12.
Eagles heading into a bye ATS....12-4

So we have a 24-8 trend favoring the Eagles.

Now the Cowboys are 4-12 ATS as road dogs,
Eagles 12-4 ATS as home fav.

So Eagles....enjoy a 48-16 trend. Talk about a powerful "spot" there it is.

I know I know.....how can all that stuff matter, it's a different season. Trust me it all matters and is stuff serious gamblers look at.

Coming off a bye, so is that 16 years of data? No serious gambler is looking at data that relates to before all of the current players hit puberty, not winning gamblers anyway. You might factor in older data if the coaching staff was the same.

So much data is just about enticing idiots to bet, including head to head data.

[saphojunkie]

The sharps are on the Jags.


The sharps will lose

Ahem

[Pitt Gorilla]

The sharps are on the Jags.

Who gives a shit about the “sharps”?

[BlackOp]

I've never bet on football...but this seemed like easy money. I made 2 @ $200 bets...

Thanks, Mahomes!

https://i.ibb.co/ctCJcFN/IMG-0809.jpg (https://ibb.co/rMckG6Z)

[alanm]

Yep.
Historically, visiting teams rarely win opening weekend. This game will be closeI thought I heard earlier that road teams were 6-2 so far this weekend.