Dolphins + 19

[Ubeja Vontell]

That is hard to believe in pro football. When was the last time we saw a spread that crazy in the NFL?

Like those LSU - 50 vs Bethune Cookman, what do you do with these kinds of numbers?

What would the line be if Clemson played the Dolphins on Saturday?

If I'm Belichick I'm playing my backups as much as I can, these Dolphins don't care meaning they could be dangerous when it comes to cheap shots and thuggery.

[FloridaMan88]

Denver was a 27 point favorite over Jacksonville in their 2013 game.

[BWillie]

Miami -42 vs Clemson

[eDave]

So what's the play here?

[Ubeja Vontell]

Denver was a 27 point favorite over Jacksonville in their 2013 game.

What was the final score?

I don't remember that and I should.

[Megatron96]

Patriots haven't covered against Miami in Miami during the regular season in something like 7 consecutive attempts. Also, when the Dolphins play the Patriots in Miami and won, the 'Fins have nearly as many double-digit wins against the Patriots as the Patriots do against Miami when playing in NE.

Furthermore, the last time the Patriots beat the Dolphins in Miami when the OAT was at least 80 degrees or more was almost ten years ago.

Bottom line, the Patriots have been perennially snake-bit when it comes to playing in Miami before December.

However, this isn't the same Dolphins team from last year that yes, beat the Patriots for the third time in a row in Miami. They got rid of their HC, QB, part of their OL, DL, their best WR, etc. and so on. And didn't replace them with anyone of note.

So this week we find out if Bob Kraft's predilection for handies really is some kind of jinx, or if Miami has just been preternaturally lucky for the last ten years or so.

[Ubeja Vontell]

Miami -42 vs Clemson

I can't see that this week, these Dolphins are sad.

Back in the day they had a game between college all stars and the NFL Champ, the college kids did win a few of those.

How about Dolphins - 17?

[Ubeja Vontell]

Patriots haven't covered against Miami in Miami during the regular season in something like 7 consecutive attempts. Also, when the Dolphins play the Patriots in Miami and won, the 'Fins have nearly as meany double-digit wins against the Patriots as the Patriots do against Miami when playing in NE.

Also, the last time the Patriots beat the Dolphins in Miami when the OAT was at least 80 degrees or more was almost ten years ago.

Bottom line, the Patriots have been perennially snake-bit when it comes to playing in Miami before December.

However, this isn't the same Dolphins team from last year that yes, beat the Patriots for the third time in a row in Miami. They got rid of their HC, QB, part of their OL, DL, their best WR, etc. and so on. And didn't replace them with anyone of note.

So this week we find out if Bob Kraft's predilection for handies really is some kind of jinx, or if Miami has just been preternaturally lucky for the last ten years or so.

Last season the Dolphins started out hot, they were 3-0 heading into NE, they got wacked 38-7.

I expect to see something similar, more about their first meeting of the season than being in Miami. And, can't ignore the revenge factor, the Pats remember how they lost the last time they were there.

[Megatron96]

Just checked, and the last time the Patriots won in Miami before December was in 2011. Every other time NE lost. Never you mind about just covering the spread.

NE can only beat Miami, in Foxborough or after November. Well, since 2011 or so.

[FloridaMan88]

What was the final score?

I don't remember that and I should.

Denver won by 16, 35-19.

[Ubeja Vontell]

Just checked, and the last time the Patriots won in Miami before December was in 2011. Every other time NE lost. Never you mind about just covering the spread.

NE can only beat Miami, in Foxborough or after November. Well, since 2011 or so.

Ok I got the Pats winning this SU, 30 days self banishment the bet....ok?

[Megatron96]

Btw, I'm not saying that the above stats are worth betting on. Those are among those "stupid" stats that shouldn't really be stats. It's like saying "Alabama will always beat Ball State" (I know they don't play each other, it's just an example). Like the name is functional. The rosters change every two or three years. But the fact remains that so far it has been true.

I also admit I've made some money using this dumb stat over the last 5-6 years.

I don't think I'll play it this year however, as there's just too much turnover in the Dolphins' ranks this year. But I'm quietly hoping the 'Fins somehow manage to keep their streak against the Pats alive. If only to hear my buddies that are Pats' fans try to come up with a new excuse for their team's miserable performances in Miami.

[Megatron96]

Ok I got the Pats winning this SU, 30 days self banishment the bet....ok?

Really? The six-time SB champs, and you can't give up the points against possibly the worst team in the league two years running? Kind of a "no-confidence vote" don't you think?

[Why Not?]

So what's the play here?

Avoid completely. Most novices will say “easy $ on the Pats!”


But, NFL. One busted play early and that line becomes NE-26 to cover that 19,

Buuuuut....you could see the Pats covering, so this game is off my board for the week

[Ubeja Vontell]

Really? The six-time SB champs, and you can't give up the points against possibly the worst team in the league two years running? Kind of a "no-confidence vote" don't you think?

You said....

NE can only beat Miami, in Foxborough or after November. Well, since 2011 or so.

.....so you really don't believe that is the case now?

[Ubeja Vontell]

Avoid completely. Most novices will say “easy $ on the Pats!”


But, NFL. One busted play early and that line becomes NE-26 to cover that 19,

Buuuuut....you could see the Pats covering, so this game is off my board for the week

You got it!

I never play anything over 7.

[Ubeja Vontell]

Not wanting to clutter the board with another thread.....

This will be the last time our Chiefs have to play in the dirt in Oakland. Hopefully we get out of this bad situation without any injuries, but I am concerned.

Anyone ever been to Oakland? Very scarey place after dark.

[Rain Man]

Denver won by 16, 35-19.

What was the final score?

I don't remember that and I should.

Denver was a 27 point favorite over Jacksonville in their 2013 game.


Peyton Manning choked, as usual.

[displacedinMN]

the Vikings were favored VERY heavily over the Bills last year.

Then the bills came in and crushed them. That was the day after a Vikes player went nuts.

found it The winless Bills entered Week 3's contest against the Vikings as 17-point underdogs,

[Rain Man]

Not wanting to clutter the board with another thread.....

This will be the last time our Chiefs have to play in the dirt in Oakland. Hopefully we get out of this bad situation without any injuries, but I am concerned.

Anyone ever been to Oakland? Very scarey place after dark.

I spent a night in Oakland last year, but I must've not entered the war zone. I just remember it being lots of highways, and the only restaurant I could walk to was Denny's. Fortunately, I kind of like Denny's.

[Rain Man]

I swear that the Chiefs were a 20+ point favorite a couple of times in the last few years. Anyone else remember that?

[Ubeja Vontell]

Peyton Manning choked, as usual.

SB champ.

Number one with 539 TD passes (Brees will pass him this season)
Number two in yards.

Future Hall of Famer.

I think most have him in that second/third best QB debate, Brady obviously THE GOAT.

[Megatron96]

The last time the NE Patriots beat the Miami Dolphins, in Miami by more than 17 points was in 2010.

The Patriots haven't covered the spread against the Dolphins in Miami before November since then.

[Rain Man]

SB champ.

Number one with 539 TD passes (Brees will pass him this season)
Number two in yards.

Future Hall of Famer.

I think most have him in that second/third best QB debate, Brady obviously THE GOAT.

Don't talk to me. Talk to the people who bet on him to cover the spread against a weak Jacksonville team.

[Ubeja Vontell]

The last time the NE Patriots beat the Miami Dolphins, in Miami by more than 17 points was in 2010.

The Patriots haven't covered the spread against the Dolphins in Miami before November since then.

I get that, but you were talking about winning the game.

[Ubeja Vontell]

Don't talk to me. Talk to the people who bet on him to cover the spread against a weak Jacksonville team.

They aren't the ones calling him a choker, that would be you.

Peyton Manning is one of the top 3-4 QB's of all time.

[Rain Man]

They aren't the ones calling him a choker, that would be you.

Peyton Manning is one of the top 3-4 QB's of all time.


I know for a fact that they called him a choker as well. You can look it up.

[Ubeja Vontell]

I know for a fact that they called him a choker as well. You can look it up.

What you should have looked up is this....

Five time NFL MVP....more than anyone in history
14 time pro bowler
7 time All Pro
In 2013...5477 yards and 55 TD's
His best passer rating a gaudy....121.1

Who is....they?

[Rain Man]

What you should have looked up is this....

Five time NFL MVP....more than anyone in history
14 time pro bowler
7 time All Pro
In 2013...5477 yards and 55 TD's
His best passer rating a gaudy....121.1

Who is....they?

Are you sure? That doesn't sound right.

[Ubeja Vontell]

Are you sure? That doesn't sound right.

Yep, 100% correct.

So..they....need to bone up on the game.

[Rain Man]

Yep, 100% correct.

So..they....need to bone up on the game.

Nah, I think you're thinking of Ryan Leaf.

[Ubeja Vontell]

Nah, I think you're thinking of Ryan Leaf.

Dude, nobody ever thinks of Ryan Leaf, ok slick?

Peyton Manning was a fantastic QB, ok guy?

[Rain Man]

Dude, nobody ever thinks of Ryan Leaf, ok slick?

Peyton Manning was a fantastic QB, ok guy?

Well, let's find some common ground. We can both agree that he was a better quarterback than John Elway, right?

[Ubeja Vontell]

Well, let's find some common ground. We can both agree that he was a better quarterback than John Elway, right?

The only QB's that are on Peyton's level....

Tom Brady
Drew Brees
Joe Montana
Dan Marino
Aaron Rodgers

Then we get down here with ....

Otto Graham
Johnny U
Brett Favre
John Elway
Big Ben
Philip Rivers
Fran Tarkenton

...and someday Russell Wilson.

[dlphg9]

Nah, I think you're thinking of Ryan Leaf.

Dude youre so wrong. He's thinking of Tyler Thigpen. I could have swore I saw an article on Thigpen's decade plus run of dominating the regular season. It said he didn't win a SB until he was able to get the league to change the rules, so that if his WR was touched during a play they would throw a flag. Yep def Thiggy.

[T-post Tom]

I spent a night in Oakland last year, but I must've not entered the war zone. I just remember it being lots of highways, and the only restaurant I could walk to was Denny's. Fortunately, I kind of like Denny's.

I spent a week one night in Oakland....

[kysirsoze]

Sounds like the moral victory of putting a helmet into Brady's knee will have to do.

[Ubeja Vontell]

Dude youre so wrong. He's thinking of Tyler Thigpen. I could have swore I saw an article on Thigpen's decade plus run of dominating the regular season. It said he didn't win a SB until he was able to get the league to change the rules, so that if his WR was touched during a play they would throw a flag. Yep def Thiggy.

Tyler Thigpen played at Baker HS in Jacksonville Florida, he was all state in basketball and a four time Florida long jump champ and still holds the state record at 26-8. Football wasn't his first sport but being his grandpa wanted him to play.....Jerome Thigpen a legendary running back at Baker his grandpa.

Tyler had 4.23 40 speed and a cannon for a arm, he also played a mean harmonica, did a great Noah Lewis (Gus Cannon Jug Stompers) impersonation. After breaking all the Florida HS passing and rushing records off to Coastal Carolina where he broke all the passng records held by Johnny "Bazooka" Bodine.

His NFL career never really took off, story went he liked to party and wanted to record a blues CD featuring him on harmonica. The band....Tyler and The Tornados, had a solid sound, making an impact locally. X Raider backer Jubilee Juniper on drums.

The last we saw of Tyler Thigpen was him in the back of a van heading off to New Orleans to open for The Neville Brothers at the Zanzibar Club.

[Chiefspants]

Rain Man engaging in God Tier trolling in this thread.

[Ubeja Vontell]

Rain Man engaging in God Tier trolling in this thread.

Saying stuff like....

Peyton Manning choked, as usual.

.....isn't trolling, there is another name for that.

[kysirsoze]

Saying stuff like....

Peyton Manning choked, as usual.

.....isn't trolling, there is another name for that.

I don't understand. Are you a Patriots fan or a Colts fan? I'm confused.

[Ubeja Vontell]

I don't understand. Are you a Patriots fan or a Colts fan? I'm confused.

I'm a life long Chiefs fan, but.....I don't get silly with it, I get there are other great teams and players out there, I do keep it real.

Some are like.....

Question

Who wins this battle...three KC Chief players in a row boat equipped with sling shots or a battleship?

Chiefs fan....the Chiefs of course.

[eDave]

Saying stuff like....

Peyton Manning choked, as usual.

.....isn't trolling, there is another name for that.

There's a reason he's called Rainman.

[Ubeja Vontell]

There's a reason he's called Rainman.

He's called Rainman or calls himself Rainman?

That is kinda funny because I have been called Rain Man a few times, being a history buff ya understand.

[Mahomes15MyHomes]

That is hard to believe in pro football. When was the last time we saw a spread that crazy in the NFL?

Like those LSU - 50 vs Bethune Cookman, what do you do with these kinds of numbers?

What would the line be if Clemson played the Dolphins on Saturday?

If I'm Belichick I'm playing my backups as much as I can, these Dolphins don't care meaning they could be dangerous when it comes to cheap shots and thuggery.

I am a professional gambler. Moreso in MLB. But I do know how to read lines in the NFL. Usually the team with the high number especially at home covers in these situations. At the same time, it's this high for a REASON. With reports that the Dolphins have quit and all that; and you get the Patriots on the National Sunday night game fresh on people's mind dominating, the public will be on Pats more than ever in this one. So, you'll also have those scared folks teasing down New England to -12 even -7 in some situations. This is a no play for me. I simply do not like these spots either way and there's no right way to really bet it. GUN to my head, I would have to take Dolphins because I simply don't believe that Vegas is just going to give away money on a cover at a 80% clip, it isnt that simple. But this is a no play. You cannot win on games like this, don't try.

[Ubeja Vontell]

I am a professional gambler. Moreso in MLB. But I do know how to read lines in the NFL. Usually the team with the high number especially at home covers in these situations. At the same time, it's this high for a REASON. With reports that the Dolphins have quit and all that; and you get the Patriots on the National Sunday night game fresh on people's mind dominating, the public will be on Pats more than ever in this one. So, you'll also have those scared folks teasing down New England to -12 even -7 in some situations. This is a no play for me. I simply do not like these spots either way and there's no right way to really bet it. GUN to my head, I would have to take Dolphins because I simply don't believe that Vegas is just going to give away money on a cover at a 80% clip, it isnt that simple. But this is a no play. You cannot win on games like this, don't try.

I'll be damn, somebody who understands..."spots".

I never mess with those gaudy numbers, stay in that 4 points or less relm, there it's pretty much the better team wins and covers, love small favorites.

[Mahomes15MyHomes]

I'll be damn, somebody who understands..."spots".

I never mess with those gaudy numbers, stay in that 4 points or less relm, there it's pretty much the better team wins and covers, love small favorites.


Yeah, exactly. Just watch where the money is being laid; and what the line is doing counter to that. I actually think Vegas week 1 believed we were going to struggle in Jacksonville. 80% of the tickets were on the Chiefs. Yet the line went from 3.5 to 3. It did not make sense... either vegas is in the business of giving away free, easy money... or they ran simulations or had a pretty good inkling that the Jags were going to cover. I took the Jags to cover and lost badly obviously. And america made out with the books money. But over the long haul; if you look for these spots you will win. Same holds true in baseball where I make most of my money.

This week... already one jumps out. Everyone is pounding the Seahawks because they're a popular team... and the Steelers got buried on National TV. I love a team off a butt kicking anyways.

Then I see that the Steelers have gone -3.5 to -4 already. Everyone in the world will want Seattle even more. They're trapping people on Seattle. Pittsburgh is going to win the game, and cover. And Vegas knows it.

[Ubeja Vontell]

Yeah, exactly. Just watch where the money is being laid; and what the line is doing counter to that. I actually think Vegas week 1 believed we were going to struggle in Jacksonville. 80% of the tickets were on the Chiefs. Yet the line went from 3.5 to 3. It did not make sense... either vegas is in the business of giving away free, easy money... or they ran simulations or had a pretty good inkling that the Jags were going to cover. I took the Jags to cover and lost badly obviously. And america made out with the books money. But over the long haul; if you look for these spots you will win. Same holds true in baseball where I make most of my money.

This week... already one jumps out. Everyone is pounding the Seahawks because they're a popular team... and the Steelers got buried on National TV. I love a team off a butt kicking anyways.

Then I see that the Steelers have gone -3.5 to -4 already. Everyone in the world will want Seattle even more. They're trapping people on Seattle. Pittsburgh is going to win the game, and cover. And Vegas knows it.

I'm totally with you, the Steelers at home coming off a bad loss laying a small number vs a known to be a weak road tream. Yep, the Steelers are the play.

I usually don't get into searching out a "spot" where everything ATS points to a side until Friday, I do the homework.

[Amnorix]

Patriots haven't covered against Miami in Miami during the regular season in something like 7 consecutive attempts. Also, when the Dolphins play the Patriots in Miami and won, the 'Fins have nearly as many double-digit wins against the Patriots as the Patriots do against Miami when playing in NE.

Furthermore, the last time the Patriots beat the Dolphins in Miami when the OAT was at least 80 degrees or more was almost ten years ago.

Bottom line, the Patriots have been perennially snake-bit when it comes to playing in Miami before December.

However, this isn't the same Dolphins team from last year that yes, beat the Patriots for the third time in a row in Miami. They got rid of their HC, QB, part of their OL, DL, their best WR, etc. and so on. And didn't replace them with anyone of note.

So this week we find out if Bob Kraft's predilection for handies really is some kind of jinx, or if Miami has just been preternaturally lucky for the last ten years or so.


I will NEVER forget a few years ago when the 12-1 Pats played the 2-11 Dolphins in Miami and were leading, slightly, with like 5 minutes left and then went on to play just about the worst five minutes of football of BB/Brady's time together to throw it all away.

Then you have last year's "Miami Miracle", the lone highlight in an otherwise lousy season down there.

There's no question that Miami is the Bermuda Triangle of the Patriots Dynasty. Be prepared for weirdness, and be prepared to lose, no matter that it makes no damn sense at all.

[KChiefs1]

Could the Dolphins beat Clemson?

[Why Not?]

Could the Dolphins beat Clemson?

We have this conversation every year.


Yes. By double digits.

[Nzoner]

Avoid completely. Most novices will say “easy $ on the Pats!”


But, NFL. One busted play early and that line becomes NE-26 to cover that 19,

Buuuuut....you could see the Pats covering, so this game is off my board for the week

And if forced to bet on a game like this i.e. Yahoo Spread pickem etc. type game take the home dog.

[Nzoner]

They aren't the ones calling him a choker, that would be you.

Peyton Manning is one of the top 3-4 QB's of all time.

Sorry but Rainman is partially right here as Manning was definitely known as being a choker BUT it was in the playoffs.

Entering these playoffs—which many believe will be his last—Manning had a losing record in the postseason and just one championship despite making the playoffs 14 times in 16 seasons as a healthy starter. Thus, this might be his last chance to salvage a pristine legacy by becoming the 12th quarterback to win multiple Super Bowls.

[Nzoner]

I am a professional gambler. Moreso in MLB. But I do know how to read lines in the NFL. Usually the team with the high number especially at home covers in these situations. At the same time, it's this high for a REASON. With reports that the Dolphins have quit and all that; and you get the Patriots on the National Sunday night game fresh on people's mind dominating, the public will be on Pats more than ever in this one. So, you'll also have those scared folks teasing down New England to -12 even -7 in some situations. This is a no play for me. I simply do not like these spots either way and there's no right way to really bet it. GUN to my head, I would have to take Dolphins because I simply don't believe that Vegas is just going to give away money on a cover at a 80% clip, it isnt that simple. But this is a no play. You cannot win on games like this, don't try.

Nice explanation,especially how the public can't think past the previous week.

[Ubeja Vontell]

Could the Dolphins beat Clemson?

People forget that college allstar teams have beaten NFL Champs a few times.

I do think the final 4 in the NCAA could hang tough vs the worst NFL teams.

[BlackHelicopters]

The NFL is an underdog league. History shows that consistently taking the home dog with double digit points can be a winning strategy.

[ChiefBlueCFC]

I'm pretty sure Oklahoma State was a 70 point favorite a few years ago when they played some small D2 school -- I think Florida State had a similar line playing some directional school a few years ago as well

[Ubeja Vontell]

The NFL is an underdog league. History shows that consistently taking the home dog with double digit points can be a winning strategy.

I'm going to see what I can find on that, I have heard that before.

[Ubeja Vontell]

I'm pretty sure Oklahoma State was a 70 point favorite a few years ago when they played some small D2 school -- I think Florida State had a similar line playing some directional school a few years ago as well

We see those huge numbers all the time in college football, but it's rare to see - 19 in the NFL.

[ChiefBlueCFC]

We see those huge numbers all the time in college football, but it's rare to see - 19 in the NFL.

Ya, it's pretty rare to see double digit spreads, let alone -19

[lcarus]

God damn the Patriots next 7 games are a complete joke.

@Dolphins
Jets
@Bills
@Redskins
Giants
@Jets
Browns

[Why Not?]

I'm pretty sure Oklahoma State was a 70 point favorite a few years ago when they played some small D2 school -- I think Florida State had a similar line playing some directional school a few years ago as well

Now NCAA major ridiculous underdogs, I will lay action on. I hit on New Mexico or NM State or whatever they are covering 55 against ‘Bama. College coaches tend to call off the dogs and/or start playing 2nd-3rd stringers by the 4th in those games.

[JD10367]

So what's the play here?

Patriots never win in Miami, but this Patriots team looks pretty good. But there’s no way they cover 19. Even in a big win I can see a late score ruining that spread. Wouldn’t be surprised if it’s something like a 30-6 game and a 4th quarter Fins TD kills it.

[Giant Octopodes]

Patriots never win in Miami, but this Patriots team looks pretty good. But there’s no way they cover 19. Even in a big win I can see a late score ruining that spread. Wouldn’t be surprised if it’s something like a 30-6 game and a 4th quarter Fins TD kills it.

I wouldn't say there's "no way" they cover. After all they just beat the Steelers by 30, and say what you will about the Steelers, I don't think they're worse than the Dolphins this year. That being said the Dolphins in Miami is about as unfavorable a matchup as exists for the Patriots so I also wouldn't be surprised to see them win outright, or at least keep it close. I wouldn't bet real money on it in either direction, but if I had to, I'd say talent trumps history and I'd count on the Pat's blowing them out.

[Mahomes15MyHomes]

The NFL is an underdog league. History shows that consistently taking the home dog with double digit points can be a winning strategy.

Yeah the man nailed it. There is a stat on it somewhere. Overwhelmingly, the dog covers. They might not sunday. But either you play Miami or don't play.

The public (which loses routinely) loves favorites & overs. If those hit all the time (and they do hit), those big buildings wouldn't be built. But hand over fist, the public loses over the long term. And the linesmakers know how to set these numbers so that the public just loses. And they're so good in NFL that they'll set it so that you just lose by a hair, keeping the viewer invested until the very end so beautifully! And those air-proof teasers so carefully placed that get the pats down to -7 will somehow lose too in many of these scenarios.

I know this of course, because it took me 15 long, hard, bloody years to be successful at it. And NFL is still hard. Because the spreads are tighter and better every year, their info improves at the books, the minds they have working for them and the info they get that we don't is light years ahead of us. The only way to win is to bet like you're the house, the casino. Over the long haul other than in the right spot, it will never fail. Some get it, some don't.

[Mahomes15MyHomes]

God damn the Patriots next 7 games are a complete joke.

@Dolphins
Jets
@Bills
@Redskins
Giants
@Jets
Browns

It looks that way. But something weird will occur in half of these so that the Pats somehow don't cover. I see two to three of those already where I know I'll take the points (Bills or Jets, Skins possibly, Cleveland). Trust me. They will get it to a number that's perfect so the Pats either win + do not cover; or lose outright in a huge spot that looks guaranteed and they make enough money on all the public losses in that ONE GAME to mitigate the rest of the public wins on that given Sunday. It happens all the time.

[New World Order]

God damn the Patriots next 7 games are a complete joke.

@Dolphins
Jets
@Bills
@Redskins
Giants
@Jets
Browns

The hope is they lose 2 out of 3 to the Texans, Eagles or Ravens. Those are all on the road.

That most likely sets up the winner of NE/KC for HFA.

[Nzoner]

Personally if you an extra fifty or hundred to really gamble throw it at the Miami money line @ +1070

I'll never forget leaving Vegas in '04 with the Yanks up 3-0 against the Red Sox in the playoffs and a buddy suggesting I throw $20 on the Sox to come back and win the series.Of course I said no way that'll ever happen :banghead:

[Ubeja Vontell]

I can see a 38-17 game late in the 4th quarter when out come the Pat starters, the Dolphins score a garbage time TD, so....38-24.....Pats fail to cover the number.

[GloryDayz]

Fuck the Pats.

[Ubeja Vontell]

**** the Pats.

You are looking at it all wrong.

Clemson took down the mighty Alabama Crimson Tide, that is a...WOW!

When our Chiefs take down the mighty New England Patriots, yep.....WOW!

[Giant Octopodes]

It looks that way. But something weird will occur in half of these so that the Pats somehow don't cover. I see two to three of those already where I know I'll take the points (Bills or Jets, Skins possibly, Cleveland). Trust me. They will get it to a number that's perfect so the Pats either win + do not cover; or lose outright in a huge spot that looks guaranteed and they make enough money on all the public losses in that ONE GAME to mitigate the rest of the public wins on that given Sunday. It happens all the time.

Sure it's easy to say that, but since 2014 the Patriots beat the spread around 65% of the time, every year. So in my opinion you'd be better just taking the Pats every game and taking the easy money than trying to figure out which games fall into the 35% which won't cover and opening yourself up to the potential of getting it wrong every week.

I mean there's nothing wrong with what you're saying, but when you can be right over 60% of the time automatically, how can you turn down easy money? That's my thought on it at least.

[GloryDayz]

You are looking at it all wrong.

Clemson took down the mighty Alabama Crimson Tide, that is a...WOW!

When our Chiefs take down the mighty New England Patriots, yep.....WOW!

That's one option, their plane falling from the sky is another, either would improve the product the NFL provides.

Fuck the Pats.

[RollChiefsRoll]

Miami -42 vs Clemson

This. The Phins would beat Clemson by at least 50. Clemson spent a half or so looking like recycled ass against Georgia Tech.

[Mile High Mania]

You are looking at it all wrong.

Clemson took down the mighty Alabama Crimson Tide, that is a...WOW!

When our Chiefs take down the mighty New England Patriots, yep.....WOW!

You're the same guy that was screaming about some uber fast spare RB that was cut by Denver and then resigned to the practice squad, yeah?

https://media.giphy.com/media/NXOF5rlaSXdAc/giphy.gif

[MahiMike]

Wise guy musburger just said to take the dolphins.

[Giant Octopodes]

Wise guy musburger just said to take the dolphins.

I mean, the advice out of the sharks was also to take the Steelers last week, and the Rams before that, and the Chiefs before that, and the Chargers before that. If you pay attention to those guys you'll be broke in short order. Just watch, so far the Patriots are 1-0 ATS, guaranteed they finish 9-7 or better at year's end. Might not hit this week, but in the words of Wells, it is more probable than not they will.

[Chargem]

Not going to bet it but just throwing it out there, don't ex Belicheck coaches have a history of playing the Pats tough, e.g. the surprise Lions win last season?

[Megatron96]

Ok I got the Pats winning this SU, 30 days self banishment the bet....ok?

Hey, UV, I was just having a little fun. Heck, I completely agree on paper the Pats should crush the Dolphins this week. It's just the recent history of the Patriots playing in Miami has been comical.

So if you want to make that bet, go ahead I guess. But I was never trying to goad anyone into making such a bet, which I think I made clear in one of my posts.

If you want to just make a gentleman's bet, how about whoever loses the bet has to write something like, "and so-and-so is always right," or whatever?

Btw, while I'm not a professional gambler, the way I've always heard it is that in the NFL you you always take the hometown dog when the spread is over a TD. Mathematically you always come out ahead, or something like that.

Usually I follow that guideline. In college the lines can be so skewed that you kind of have to use a different set of rules, in my limited experience (I don't bet college games much).