AV calcs are out: is Mitchell Schwartz best FA signing in NFL history?

[Prison Bitch]

ProFootballReference.com has an “AV” value assigned to every player in history. Scale 0-26, with the highest ever being Ladanian Tomlinson 2006. It was matched this year. The top 10:


Approximate Value
1. Lamar Jackson • BAL 26
2. Stephon Gilmore • NWE 21
Marcus Peters • 2TM 21
4. Minkah Fitzpatrick • 2TM 20
5. Ronnie Stanley • BAL 19
Tre'Davious White • BUF 19
7. Cameron Heyward • PIT 18
Michael Thomas • NOR 18
9. Dont'a Hightower • NWE 17
Patrick Mahomes • KAN 17
Ryan Ramczyk • NOR 17
10 (tie) Mitchell Schwartz * KAN 16


Yes our old friend Peters is 2 (tie). Sir Patrick led the league last year at 22. And if he played 16 games he’d be AV 19. But let’s talk Schwartz.



Mitch The Bitch signed a 5/$33m FA contract after four years with the Cleveland Clowns. https://www.spotrac.com/nfl/kansas-city-chiefs/mitchell-schwartz-9847/cash-earnings/


His AV by year, Chiefs in bold:
7
5
6
6
10
14
20!
16


Last year he was the #2 most valuable player in AV behind Sir Pat. I don’t know how to evaluate OL but if this is close to accurate he’s the best FA signing ever and an unsung hero of the offense and keeping Sir Pat healthy.

[smithandrew051]

He’s a Ring of Honor player and the best RT in franchise history. Fight me.

[Pitt Gorilla]

He’s a Ring of Honor player and the best RT in franchise history. Fight me.

Tait has to be up there as well. Lutz, Baldinger, and even Eric Fisher were all really good at RT.

[ThaVirus]

I dispute any metric that would rank Lamar Jackson's 2019 season above 2004 and 2013 Peyton, 2007 and 2011 Tom Brady, 2011 Aaron Rodgers, 1994 Dan Marino or 2018 Patrick Mahomes.

Shit, is Lamar's season even any better than Cam Newton's 2015 MVP season?

[chiefzilla1501]

Wow, that's a pretty big statement. Either way we got a steal and one hell of a player so I'll take it.

[DJ's left nut]

Tait has to be up there as well. Lutz, Baldinger, and even Eric Fisher were all really good at RT.

Fisher played RT for a single year, had a bum shoulder for most of it and a really poor base to boot.

Fisher was TERRIBLE as a rookie. That's not to say he didn't flash potential (I remained a fan of his), but he was anything but 'really good' at right tackle. He was quite bad.

[xztop123]

if jackson is a 26 which is the highest how is tomlinson better ?

[Pitt Gorilla]

Fisher played RT for a single year, had a bum shoulder for most of it and a really poor base to boot.

Fisher was TERRIBLE as a rookie. That's not to say he didn't flash potential (I remained a fan of his), but he was anything but 'really good' at right tackle. He was quite bad.

I remembered him playing RT, but I must have misremembered him playing well.

[St. Patty's Fire]

I dispute any metric that would rank Lamar Jackson's 2019 season above 2004 and 2013 Peyton, 2007 and 2011 Tom Brady, 2011 Aaron Rodgers, 1994 Dan Marino or 2018 Patrick Mahomes.

Shit, is Lamar's season even any better than Cam Newton's 2015 MVP season?

Lamar had about twice as many rushing yards as Cam, and Lamar was a much more efficient passer, although Lamar was about as coddled as any QB could be in terms of passing. 26th in the league in pass attempts. Had about as many as 41 year old man Drew Brees did in 4 more games.

Cam’s supporting cast wasn’t nearly as good on offense as Lamar’s is, not to mention the overall play calling for the Ravens is about as good as it gets.

[suzzer99]

Does value take how much they're paid into consideration?

[Prison Bitch]

I dispute any metric that would rank Lamar Jackson's 2019 season above 2004 and 2013 Peyton, 2007 and 2011 Tom Brady, 2011 Aaron Rodgers, 1994 Dan Marino or 2018 Patrick Mahomes.

Shit, is Lamar's season even any better than Cam Newton's 2015 MVP season?


Lamar in 15 games just threw 3,100 yds 36-6 TD-INT 113 rating with 1200 yards rushing. His team went 14-2. How can that not be one of (if not the) most productive years in history?

Does value take how much they're paid into consideration?

No.

[T-post Tom]

So Trezelle Jenkins didn't make the list?

[ThaVirus]

Lamar had about twice as many rushing yards as Cam, and Lamar was a much more efficient passer, although Lamar was about as coddled as any QB could be in terms of passing. 26th in the league in pass attempts. Had about as many as 41 year old man Drew Brees did in 4 more games.

Cam’s supporting cast wasn’t nearly as good on offense as Lamar’s is, not to mention the overall play calling for the Ravens is about as good as it gets.

.... So you agree?

Lamar was definitely the more efficient passer and he rushed for more yards, but Cam passed for more yards and ran for more TDs. The supporting cast of each can't be overstated either. That 2015 Carolina offense was basically Cam playing Superman and a bunch of warm bodies.

I'm not saying Lamar's season season wasn't better, but if it was it wasn't by much.

[ThaVirus]

Lamar in 15 games just threw 3,100 yds 36-6 TD-INT 113 rating with 1200 yards rushing. His team went 14-2. How can that not be one of (if not the) most productive years in history?

I didn't say it wasn't. I'm saying it wasn't better than those other stellar seasons put up by legendary QBs in the past.

Even if you wanted to make the argument that it was better, you can't say it was that much better. I mean, Lamar's 2019 is a 26 and Peyton Manning never had a season above 21?

[Prison Bitch]

.... So you agree?

Lamar was definitely the more efficient passer and he rushed for more yards, but Cam passed for more yards and ran for more TDs. The supporting cast of each can't be overstated either. That 2015 Carolina offense was basically Cam playing Superman and a bunch of warm bodies.

I'm not saying Lamar's season season wasn't better, but if it was it wasn't by much.

Cam’s 2015 was worth 20 AV.

[ThaVirus]

Cam’s 2015 was worth 20 AV.

This metric sucks

[Prison Bitch]

This metric sucks

I doubt they care what you think.

[ThaVirus]

I doubt they care what you think.

Doesn't matter if they do because I'm talking to you, not them.

You could have easily posted a thread about Schwartz being a great FA signing without trying to prop it up with this shitty metric. Do better, Bitch.

[DJ's left nut]

I doubt they care what you think.

It isn't very good.

It had a tendency to conflate quantity w/ quality. If you take a bunch of snaps, approximate value will love you for it. It's usually most obvious w/ DBs and OL.

Austin Reiter is a pretty good example. His AV last year was 3; this year it was 8. Reiter, in his time on the field, was a better player last year than he was this year and by quite a bit. But last year he played far fewer snaps.

So in terms of contributions to the team, it's fair to say he provided 'more' to the Chiefs this season just because he took so many more snaps. But in a vacuum, you'd look at his 8 this year vs. his 3 last year and think "man, he must have been twice as good" and that's just not accurate. I don't feel like digging, but in the past I've noticed it being even more jarring for CBs. For instance, Scandrick being 'worth' 2 AV last year and Ward being worth 1 - strictly a function of Scandrick getting more snaps and in no way representative of the quality of those snaps.

Long way of saying that it isn't a very good metric at all for determining quality of performance. Sometimes guys play a lot because they have to and it's a really bad way of comparing guys across teams because of that. You can play a lot for a shitty team and earn yourself a pretty high AV but if you play in a limited role on a better team and are a better player than said guy on the shitty team, it won't be reflected in AV.

It has some utility, but it's pretty limited.

[Prison Bitch]

Doesn't matter if they do because I'm talking to you, not them.

You could have easily posted a thread about Schwartz being a great FA signing without trying to prop it up with this shitty metric. Do better, Bitch.


I don’t care to “prop up” anyone. That’s not really my bag. I only analyze players based on cold hard data. If you want the cheerleading section, I’m afraid I’ll have to point you elsewhere.

[DJ's left nut]

I don’t care to “prop up” anyone. That’s not really my bag. I only analyze players based on cold hard data. If you want the cheerleading section, I’m afraid I’ll have to point you elsewhere.

His point is that there is FAR better data to use.

AV is more akin to a usage rate than it is a barometer for quality of play.

[Prison Bitch]

It isn't very good.

I’m always open to analytics. Show me more.

It had a tendency to conflate quantity w/ quality. If you take a bunch of snaps, approximate value will love you for it. It's usually most obvious w/ DBs and OL.

I’m not wedded to it. But I don’t know if any other metric. And if you browse thru team page history, the numbers definitely pass the smell test.



Austin Reiter is a pretty good example. His AV last year was 3; this year it was 8. Reiter, in his time on the field, was a better player last year than he was this year and by quite a bit. But last year he played far fewer snaps.

So in terms of contributions to the team, it's fair to say he provided 'more' to the Chiefs this season just because he took so many more snaps. But in a vacuum, you'd look at his 8 this year vs. his 3 last year and think "man, he must have been twice as good" and that's just not accurate. I don't feel like digging, but in the past I've noticed it being even more jarring for CBs. For instance, Scandrick being 'worth' 2 AV last year and Ward being worth 1 - strictly a function of Scandrick getting more snaps and in no way representative of the quality of those snaps.

Long way of saying that it isn't a very good metric at all for determining quality of performance. Sometimes guys play a lot because they have to and it's a really bad way of comparing guys across teams because of that. You can play a lot for a shitty team and earn yourself a pretty high AV but if you play in a limited role on a better team and are a better player than said guy on the shitty team, it won't be reflected in AV.

It has some utility, but it's pretty limited.


But that’s how all analytics work - the more PT you get the more value you carry, regardless of whether or not you’re “better” than the backup. It’s assuemd thru 100+ years of sports history that the coaches know better than anyone who’s better and backups in all sports universally get exposed the longer they play

[DJ's left nut]

But that’s how all analytics work - the more PT you get the more value you carry, regardless of whether or not you’re “better” than the backup. It’s assuemd thru 100+ years of sports history that the coaches know better than anyone who’s better and backups in all sports universally get exposed the longer they play

Not always. DVOA, for instance, oftentimes penalizes a guy for doing his job poorly, even over large numbers. You're a fan of WAR - WAR isn't a strictly positive metric like a counting stat. You can't get a negative RBI; you can get a negative win share.

I think AV is essentially a REALLY rudimentary WAR in that it only ratchets one direction (in practical application anyway). For instance, it's damn near impossible to put up a -AV because AV starts from pure zero rather than average. So unless you get 50 snaps all season and get blasted in tangible ways (missed tackles, fumbles, drops, ints, etc...) you won't yield a negative AV. You can go out there, rack up snaps, get beat constantly but not tangibly and still put up a solid AV. With stuff like VORP or DVOA, that doesn't happen. To get a negative VORP, you can play poorly. To get a negative AV, you have to be so bad that your team would effectively be better playing 11 on 10 vs. having you on the field.

AV just isn't very advanced at all. It's not completely useless, but there are far better places to look.

[JohnnyHammersticks]

Underrated, underappreciated. Just goes out and quietly does his job every week and does it very well. Not too many teams with a tackle combination as good as the Chiefs have with him and Fisher.

[Chris Meck]

yeah, I like Schwartz.

He's no Willie Roaf.

Willie Roaf was a free agent.

end of thread.

[Mosbonian]

You can tell how young this crowd is....one of the best tackles for the Chiefs was John Alt.

[Chris Meck]

You can tell how young this crowd is....one of the best tackles for the Chiefs was John Alt.

Alt was drafted by KC. This thread is about FA's.

[Jamie]

Willie Roaf was a free agent.

Nope, aquired in a trade. For a 3rd rounder if I recall correctly.

[Chris Meck]

Nope, aquired in a trade. For a 3rd rounder if I recall correctly.


is that so?

you may be right. I stand corrected.

[Prison Bitch]

Roaf AV for us:

14
13
17
8 (in only 10 games, so 13 full season)



His 17 in 2004 made him the 8th best player in NFL.

[Mama Hip Rockets]

Nope, aquired in a trade. For a 3rd rounder if I recall correctly.

3rd round pick? Man, what a steal.

[rtmike]

Nope, aquired in a trade. For a 3rd rounder if I recall correctly.

Iirc, Joe Horn was banging Roafs wife and he needed to get out of New Orleans.

I’ve never seen a better tackle, maybe Ogden.

[Prison Bitch]

For 2022:

Saint Patrick 19
Brown 14
Creed, Kelce 12
Jones 11
Thuney 10


Bolton 8, Stank Clark 7, Gay Sneed 6, Mcduffie 3 (?)


Nfl wide
Allen Hurts 20
Patrick 19
Burrow 17
AJ Brown, Fields, Goff 16
Tyreek 15

[Jewish Rabbi]

For 2022:

Saint Patrick 19
Brown 14
Creed, Kelce 12
Jones 11
Thuney 10


Bolton 8, Stank Clark 7, Gay Sneed 6, Mcduffie 3 (?)


Nfl wide
Allen Hurts 20
Patrick 19
Burrow 17
AJ Brown, Fields, Goff 16
Tyreek 15

Wow, 3 years later and still no one cares about your made up rankings

[Pasta Little Brioni]

Wow, 3 years later and still no one cares about your made up rankings

Just like Ken Pom

[Marcellus]

Saw this in the career earnings column. Holy bejezus.

Tom Brady TB,- QB$332,962,392
Aaron Rodgers GB,- QB$305,608,010
Matthew Stafford LAR,- QB$300,806,037
Matt Ryan IND, QB-$291,713,631
Russell Wilson DEN, QB- $238,362,520

As long as Brady has played compared to Stafford and Ryan he has been pretty cheap overall. Matt Ryan has made almost $300MM? Stafford has made $300MM?

[Titty Meat]

Another dumbass PB football thread. Stick to hating immigrants my boy

[Balto]

Saw this in the career earnings column. Holy bejezus.

Tom Brady TB,- QB$332,962,392
Aaron Rodgers GB,- QB$305,608,010
Matthew Stafford LAR,- QB$300,806,037
Matt Ryan IND, QB-$291,713,631
Russell Wilson DEN, QB- $238,362,520

As long as Brady has played compared to Stafford and Ryan he has been pretty cheap overall. Matt Ryan has made almost $300MM? Stafford has made $300MM?

Wanna say Stafford and Ryan came into the NFL right before rookie salary cap hit. Those Top 5 rookie QBs made more than most NFL starters with zero snaps played haha

[Hammock Parties]

For 2022:

Saint Patrick 19
Brown 14
Creed, Kelce 12
Jones 11
Thuney 10


Patrick's best season since 2018.

Kelce's third best.

[Balto]

Saw this in the career earnings column. Holy bejezus.

Tom Brady TB,- QB$332,962,392
Aaron Rodgers GB,- QB$305,608,010
Matthew Stafford LAR,- QB$300,806,037
Matt Ryan IND, QB-$291,713,631
Russell Wilson DEN, QB- $238,362,520

As long as Brady has played compared to Stafford and Ryan he has been pretty cheap overall. Matt Ryan has made almost $300MM? Stafford has made $300MM?

WOW I was curious about world wide total earnings(on and off field) and daaang Soccor players get paid! Messi($75M on field and $55M off field) for $130M last year. Ronaldo is close at a total of $115. NBA players are next with Lebron having about half as much on court earings with $41M BUT a huge $80M in off court!

The top NFL player is Brady at #9 overall with $84M total ($32M on and $52M off).

[Prison Bitch]

Patrick's best season since 2018.

Kelce's third best.

Yep. And apparently the system loves Brown, don’t have paywall access to his PFF rating

[DJ's left nut]

Yep. And apparently the system loves Brown, don’t have paywall access to his PFF rating

He ended up ranked in the top 20 among OTs, top 15 among guys who were mostly healthy and top 10 among LTs.

Very VERY comparable season to Taylor Decker who's been the guy I've been citing as a fair contractual comparison him for awhile now. Unfortunately he and his agent will disagree.

In which case I'd be looking another direction.

OBJ is ultimately a fine player. He's very Taylor Deckerish. Which, when accounting for salary cap increases, should make him 'worth' about $17-18 million/season. I'd be content signing him for that.

But he won't take it so the options are to overpay by probably about 15-20% or look elsewhere. I think I'd go with the latter.

[raybec 4]

He ended up ranked in the top 20 among OTs, top 15 among guys who were mostly healthy and top 10 among LTs.

Very VERY comparable season to Taylor Decker who's been the guy I've been citing as a fair contractual comparison him for awhile now. Unfortunately he and his agent will disagree.

In which case I'd be looking another direction.

OBJ is ultimately a fine player. He's very Taylor Deckerish. Which, when accounting for salary cap increases, should make him 'worth' about $17-18 million/season. I'd be content signing him for that.

But he won't take it so the options are to overpay by probably about 15-20% or look elsewhere. I think I'd go with the latter.

I'm afraid Veach will select the former. If nothing else that leaves one less hole to fill for this offseason. RT is a glaring weakness and they IMO will draft for that and pay Brown.

[DJ's left nut]

I'm afraid Veach will select the former. If nothing else that leaves one less hole to fill for this offseason. RT is a glaring weakness and they IMO will draft for that and pay Brown.

It's the path of least resistance.

Overpaying your LT by 20% may hurt your ability to supplement the roster somewhere, but it's unlikely to sabotage your season.

Whereas swinging and missing on a replacement in the draft or FA could undermine the whole damn thing.

The former isn't the sort of thing that would ever get a GM fired. The latter sure could.

I suspect you're right that Veach won't take that kind of gamble. I don't like it, but it is what it is.

[O.city]

It's the path of least resistance.

Overpaying your LT by 20% may hurt your ability to supplement the roster somewhere, but it's unlikely to sabotage your season.

Whereas swinging and missing on a replacement in the draft or FA could undermine the whole damn thing.

The former isn't the sort of thing that would ever get a GM fired. The latter sure could.

I suspect you're right that Veach won't take that kind of gamble. I don't like it, but it is what it is.

So this is what I keep coming back to if you decide to go a different direction.

There's a chance you end up with....what....Lucas Niang playing LT? I mean, that could happen, right?

[Chief Pagan]

3rd round pick? Man, what a steal.

Yea, who would give up a third rounder for an old dude, wasn't he trying to come back from knee and/or back problems?

[DJ's left nut]

So this is what I keep coming back to if you decide to go a different direction.

There's a chance you end up with....what....Lucas Niang playing LT? I mean, that could happen, right?

I mean there's a chance Lucas Niang could be playing LT in 2 weeks.

But no, I don't think there's a reasonable chance he's any sort of reasonably likely plan for the position.

If it's not OBJ, I'd say the most likely outcome is Jawaan Taylor. I know the Jags could tag him and they really don't have anybody else to use the tag on that I can see, but unless Cam Robinson is really messed up (torn meniscus isn't typically that serious), I can't see them moving on from him. And Walker Little showed promise after they used a 2nd rounder on him.

Maybe they tag/retain Taylor for a year as insurance against Robinson's injury and Walker's progression, but I could see them trying to reallocate that money to weaker areas as they try to really put a strong grip on a soft AFC South.

[Prison Bitch]

Lot depends on what Pat thinks. If he wants him back he will be back

[DJ's left nut]

Lot depends on what Pat thinks. If he wants him back he will be back

Yeah, I suspect that will make a big difference.

I do wonder, however, if/how any of those conversations were had ahead of the Tyreek Hill trade.

I mean, do we think Mahomes didn't want Hill around anymore? Or do you think the coaching staff sold him on their 'new' vision to combat the Fangio shit and that they didn't need Hill to do so?

I see all these things about Pat 'leaving money on the table' to take care of Jones or Kelce and now maybe OBJ and yet....we traded Hill?

Hmmm....

[O.city]

Yeah, I suspect that will make a big difference.

I do wonder, however, if/how any of those conversations were had ahead of the Tyreek Hill trade.

I mean, do we think Mahomes didn't want Hill around anymore? Or do you think the coaching staff sold him on their 'new' vision to combat the Fangio shit and that they didn't need Hill to do so?

I see all these things about Pat 'leaving money on the table' to take care of Jones or Kelce and now maybe OBJ and yet....we traded Hill?

Hmmm....

I think the unspoken thing goes....unspoken here. I'd imagine Pat was.....well you know.

Otherwise we'd have heard about it.

[raybec 4]

Yeah, I suspect that will make a big difference.

I do wonder, however, if/how any of those conversations were had ahead of the Tyreek Hill trade.

I mean, do we think Mahomes didn't want Hill around anymore? Or do you think the coaching staff sold him on their 'new' vision to combat the Fangio shit and that they didn't need Hill to do so?

I see all these things about Pat 'leaving money on the table' to take care of Jones or Kelce and now maybe OBJ and yet....we traded Hill?

Hmmm....
But Jones dad said so!!

[DJ's left nut]

I think the unspoken thing goes....unspoken here. I'd imagine Pat was.....well you know.

Otherwise we'd have heard about it.

Pat's a company man - happy with the decision or not, he'd support it.

I had a conversation with my director the first time I brought her into a 'big boy meeting' and I said "Okay, the trade off you're going to make here is that if you want to be here and have some influence on the decisions that are made, regardless of WHAT that decision ends up being, its yours as well as anyone else in that room. If you can't walk out of this room in support of whatever decision was made, regardless of whether you agree with it, you don't walk in to this room..."

To me that's always been a fair trade. You're not entitled to be a dictator so if you have an opportunity to influence the decision, you got to say your piece and now you support whatever direction the group chooses to go.

Pat strikes me as someone that sees the world through a similar lens. If he's INVOLVED in the decision, he'll back it even if he disagrees with it. Contrast that to some prick like Aaron Rodgers who, if you don't involve him, will pitch a bitch about it. And if you DO involve him and then don't do what he wants, he'll go out there and tell everyone and their mother how awful he thought the idea was.

You can't have people in leadership like that.

Pat's just so fucking dreamy, man. That guy does EVERYTHING right.

[Sassy Squatch]

I've kind of been wondering if we didn't finger the wrong man who had an altercation with Mahomes during halftime in the AFCCG last year. Hill has been an uncharacteristically mouthy little cunt ever since he left and even during the game he was being pretty cantankerous. Got after Hardman pretty bad as well iirc.

[Prison Bitch]

Yeah, I suspect that will make a big difference.

I do wonder, however, if/how any of those conversations were had ahead of the Tyreek Hill trade.

I mean, do we think Mahomes didn't want Hill around anymore? Or do you think the coaching staff sold him on their 'new' vision to combat the Fangio shit and that they didn't need Hill to do so?

I see all these things about Pat 'leaving money on the table' to take care of Jones or Kelce and now maybe OBJ and yet....we traded Hill?

Hmmm....


Pat was definitely consulted on Ty and likely went along with the front office narrative. I’d suspect Reid was very positive that they could replace Ty and shape new or more quick hitch type stuff, screens et al.

Having said that if he threw a tantrum he’d have gotten his way. As veach says “anything for Pat”

[Ming the Merciless]

Lamar in 15 games just threw 3,100 yds 36-6 TD-INT 113 rating with 1200 yards rushing. His team went 14-2. How can that not be one of (if not the) most productive years in history?



its hard to analyze that season vs a 4400 passing yard season but the 1200 yard rushing season is more rare and probably valuable in some ways because of the problems it creates for the defense at least for a single given season


BUT


running QB's that much doesnt seem sustainable as anything other than a single season gimmick or maybe a run of a couple seasons , historically (kapernick, vick, cunningham, slash etc) due to injury and defenses spy/monster