Gambling advice needed!

[Ming the Merciless]

Hey so clearly the Chiefs will win by 20+ so no advice needed on that one...


But...Three questions for all the gamblers here:


1) The Chiefs over/under is at 52. In years past I would take the under in a heartbeat but this year I am inclined to go with the over....what say you ?


2) The niners are giving up 7 points or even 7.5 to GB. I do think the niners will win....but will they win by 8+? SHould I take GB and take 7 or 7.5 points? Help! I haven't watched a ton of GB games so I have no idea whats happening with them this season but I do know the niners have a hell of a team...Ive watched them quite a bit.


3) The over / under for the niners is around 45. I have no idea on this one....how is GB's defense....? What do you guys think the total score will be?




Keep in mind this is all for fun, I am going to do a couple parlay cards and maybe put down 20 bucks to try to win $100 or something....I was just wondering if anyone else had placed any bets and what their logic was.


Thanks so much..


Your Lover,


Pawnmower

[Eleazar]

Give me half the money you would have lost, I'll take you out back and kick you in the nuts, we'll call it a day.

[Megatron96]

Check the weather, but if it's not going to be raining, (snow is fine), take the over. TEN is going to score some points; probably around 20. Chiefs are going to score more than 30.

If you have it available and the vig is the same (-110, Was for me), I'd just take the Chiefs to score more than 30.5 for the game.

The 49ers/GB game is a little tougher, IMO. I think the 49ers are going to win. But by a TD is tough. I think the sharps are taking the points, GB +7.5.

Again, I'd probably take the over. The Packers don't run defend that well, and the 49ers can run. Packers have Aaron and Aaron. Unlikely this game stays under 45, IMO.

If you're going to play a parlay, I'd buy all the 0.5 points. The parlay multiplier makes up for the points. YMMV.

[lewdog]

Talk to TLO or Why Not.

They are gambling addicts.

[Why Not?]

Talk to TLO or Why Not.

They are gambling addicts.

Bet you I’m not!

[Megatron96]

I didn't touch the 49ers/GB game btw.

If I had to, I'd probably take the over and leave the rest of it alone.

I took the Chiefs to score over 30.5 points; that's about as close to a lock as there is between these two games.

Threw a flier parlay at the Chiefs -9 (vig was +107) and the over.

[Why Not?]

Honestly, I try to stay away from action on Chiefs games unless it’s the $ line or the Chiefs team total. Chiefs laying the number is okay also. I would never bet the under on a Chiefs game. Weird shit happens to people when $ is on the line and I don’t ever want to be at a place where I am not rooting for the Chiefs to score points. I also don’t really ever bet the over on a Chiefs game for the same reason, but opposite side. I want Chiefs opponents to score no points ever. Look at the Chiefs team total. Last week it was 30.5. Cha ching cha ching!

Here’s how you make a bunch of money on the NFC game.

Two leg 6 point Teaser. Packers plus 13 and over 32. Profit.

[Why Not?]

I took the Chiefs to score over 30.5 points; that's about as close to a lock as there is between these two games.




Smart man.

[Why Not?]

I think I’m staying away from the Chiefs this week. I’m going to the game so that’s rush enough. Plus if we win, I won’t need money to fly home. If we lose(not happening) while scoring 35(LOL)I won’t give a fuck about the $ I would’ve won. I’m all in on emotion this week!

Well...emotions and the late game

[RealSNR]

Do you still have Hootie's cell number?

[Chiefshrink]

Gambler's Anonymous;)

[bricks]

I think its going to be Chiefs vs Packers in the Superbowl this year.

I’d pick the Pack to beat the 49ers.

I think thats worth a shot. I like Rodgers a lot against the 49ers. And, maybe the NFL would want a Chiefs/Packers finale? I wouldn’t be surprised if GB gets a few calls go their way that could determine the difference in the outcome of the game.

If I were you; I would go with moneyline bet365 bro. The line is pretty good for the Packers at +265. Which means you bet a $100 and if the Pack win you get $365 back! Not too shabby. I think thats a good risk. The payout says it all.

[Great Expectations]

Since December 1 all but one of the 49ers games have been decided by 7 points or less.

Since December 1 only one Chief game has been decided by 7 points or less and it was the 7 point victory at New England.

[Why Not?]

You could also try to kinda “middle” the late game. Bet $300 on the Niners $ line then bet $200 on the Packers to cover the 7.5.

Decent chance you win both and have a nice little come up. If the Niners blowout GB, you get about a 45% rebate and have about 3 hours of entertainment for roughly $115. If GB wins, you lose about $125 total, but again for 3 hours of entertainment. Try getting an hourly average like that on any casino game.

[stumppy]

Chiefs over
49ers -7
49ers under

[Nzoner]

I think I’m staying away from the Chiefs this week. I’m going to the game so that’s rush enough. Plus if we win, I won’t need money to fly home. If we lose(not happening) while scoring 35(LOL)I won’t give a **** about the $ I would’ve won. I’m all in on emotion this week!

Well...emotions and the late game

Back in August I picked a Packers/Chiefs SB on the bold prediction thread here and am sticking with it.That said the only things I'd throw a few bucks on is the Packers spread and moneyline.

A few random thoughts

1.While most of the talk is about the 9er's defense(rightfully so) do not sleep on the Packers D,the Smith brothers and Martinez are play makers and I look for them to do just that.

2.Rodgers has some serious personal motivation here as he(wanting to be a 49er) was passed over in the draft by them for Alex Smith and when being interviewed afterwards basically said the 49ers would be sorry for that decision someday.

3.While the 49er's look to be the better team I'll still take the playoff experience of Rodgers.

4.Lastly and the reason for my August prediction,it's meant to be,what better way to top off the 100th season of the NFL than a rematch of the first championship game.

[notorious]

Look at where the most money has been bet and do the opposite.

You will be on Vegas’s side, and I don’t have to explain why that’s a good thing.

[ChiefaRoo]

Parlay the game. Take Green Bay to win outright and take the Chiefs and lay the points. You will probably get about 4-1 if you do that. It’s a good risk/reward.
Stay away from the over/under as they are coin flips without extra upside win.

[Hoover]

Parlay the game. Take Green Bay to win outright and take the Chiefs and lay the points. You will probably get about 4-1 if you do that. It’s a good risk/reward.
Stay away from the over/under as they are coin flips without extra upside win.
That's exactly what I did, bet $50 to win $340 or something.


Not sure how you guys drove the over to 32 on the Packers/49ers game. I can tease it to 38 but not 32, and it also takes a ton of juice out of the bet.

[Why Not?]

That's exactly what I did, bet $50 to win $340 or something.


Not sure how you guys drove the over to 32 on the Packers/49ers game. I can tease it to 38 but not 32, and it also takes a ton of juice out of the bet.

That was a typo by me. I meant 38. Yeah there’s less juice but it still comes in at a hair over 1:1. I think that’s the most likely outcome to hit, considering that I, personally, am staying away from the Chiefs game for reasons mentioned above. Honestly I don’t think the Packers win. Sherman will help neutralize Adams and Jones will have tough sledding against that front 7. Yes, the Packers D is okay but they just gave up 37 to these dudes a couple months ago. Shave 10 points off that and Rodgers will have to get to 27 with Lazard and Allison type dudes doing most of the heavy lifting. I think Rodgers keeps it closer than the 29 or whatever they lost by last time but I think it’s to tall a mountain to completely scale.

[Hoover]

That was a typo by me. I meant 38. Yeah there’s less juice but it still comes in at a hair over 1:1. I think that’s the most likely outcome to hit, considering that I, personally, am staying away from the Chiefs game for reasons mentioned above. Honestly I don’t think the Packers win. Sherman will help neutralize Adams and Jones will have tough sledding against that front 7. Yes, the Packers D is okay but they just gave up 37 to these dudes a couple months ago. Shave 10 points off that and Rodgers will have to get to 27 with Lazard and Allison type dudes doing most of the heavy lifting. I think Rodgers keeps it closer than the 29 or whatever they lost by last time but I think it’s to tall a mountain to completely scale.
I read that and pulled up my gambling app right away!

LOL

[KChiefs1]

WagerTalk TV:


https://youtu.be/LCMvzVySbP0

[Why Not?]

I read that and pulled up my gambling app right away!

LOL

Haha

[Mama Hip Rockets]

Help! I haven't watched a ton of GB games so I have no idea whats happening with them this season but I do know the niners have a hell of a team...Ive watched them quite a bit.


3) The over / under for the niners is around 45. I have no idea on this one....how is GB's defense....? What do you guys think the total score will be?




Why don't you just, like, not gamble? Or use Google?

[Nzoner]

I read that and pulled up my gambling app right away!

LOL

LMAO

[notorious]

67% money on the Chiefs to cover and 55% money line.

The Sharps might move it the next few days. Probably not.

If Vegas persuades this expect a FG to win it. That's a lot of money to lose. I was expecting a blowout,but now I am rethinking this.

[SuperBowl4]

Call 1-800-522-4700

[Shoes]

Gonna pump Shitgoose's tires right now- 2nd place in the 2018 Gambling Challenge and currently in 2nd in the 2019 Gambling Challenge. I understand that this is fake money and is solely for the competition but I am fairly confident Shitgoose gambles in real life similarly.

Maybe follow his picks come Sunday.

[Nzoner]

Point total on the rise in NFC game. (https://www.thespread.com/nfl-articles/011720-nfc-championship-game-betting-1-17-20-total-rising-for-packers-vs-49ers)


The Packers are just 2-5 against the spread in their last seven games versus the 49ers while the over is 7-3in the last 10 meetings between these two teams. That said, the under is 4-1 in the Packers’ last five road games and is 6-1 in their last seven games coming off a win. On the other side, the Niners are 5-2-1 at the betting window in their last eight games while the under has cashed in all four of their last four playoff games. The over, however, is 5-2 in San Francisco’s last seven home contests.

[CanadianChiefs]

I took a teaser (7 points). I've been quite good with these lately.

Packers +16.5 and over 39 (total game score).

Pays 1.83.

I find betting the spreads as is too risky. I will usually moneyline 2-4 games for nice odds.

[wazu]

I’d be curious how the first half OVER has performed for Chiefs games. With our second quarter fireworks it seems like it’d have to be pretty good.

[Halfcan]

Bet everything on the Chiefs. Drain your savings, max out your credit cards, borrow against your kid's college fund, use your IRA, pawn your tv... put it all on Red.

[Megatron96]

I’d be curious how the first half OVER has performed for Chiefs games. With our second quarter fireworks it seems like it’d have to be pretty good.

I'd have to go back and look, but IIRC, the Chiefs have been over for the first half all but one time since the Patsies game. Including the Pats game, I think. I know it's made me some coin. Can't remember the last time I lost on it.

[Nzoner]

I’d be curious how the first half OVER has performed for Chiefs games. With our second quarter fireworks it seems like it’d have to be pretty good.

I'd have to go back and look, but IIRC, the Chiefs have been over for the first half all but one time since the Patsies game. Including the Pats game, I think. I know it's made me some coin. Can't remember the last time I lost on it.

FWIW this site is pretty awesome (https://www.thespread.com/nfl)