**** ChiefsPlanet Playoff Pick-em - DIVISIONAL ROUND ****

[wazu]

Looks like four good games this weekend. Just like last week, let's see who knows what's up. Poll forthcoming.

<blockquote class="twitter-tweet" data-partner="tweetdeck"><p lang="en" dir="ltr">Here you go <a href="https://twitter.com/RobGronkowski?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">@RobGronkowski</a> <br>History narrated by Morgan Freeman... sort of. <a href="https://t.co/ojOk4l7VoZ">pic.twitter.com/ojOk4l7VoZ</a></p>&mdash; Frank Caliendo (@FrankCaliendo) <a href="https://twitter.com/FrankCaliendo/status/1349171741617111040?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">January 13, 2021</a></blockquote>
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[comochiefsfan]

Packers
Chiefs
Ravens
Bucs

Brady winning this game is the most predictable thing ever. I can already see the flags flying in his favor.

[smithandrew051]

Chiefs
Ravens
Buccaneers
Packers

[htismaqe]

Packers
Chiefs
Ravens
Bucs

Brady winning this game is the most predictable thing ever. I can already see the flags flying in his favor.

I got the same 4, and the Bucs for the same reason.

[IowaHawkeyeChief]

I got the same 4, and the Bucs for the same reason.

ditto

[Mav]

Chiefs
Bills
Rams- Giving off 2011 NYG defense vibes, and they have the corner who can slow down Adams.
Buccs- League is determined that Brady and the Buccs be the first team to play in a super bowl in their home stadium.

[comochiefsfan]

Chiefs
Bills
Rams- Giving off 2011 NYG defense vibes, and they have the corner who can slow down Adams.
Buccs- League is determined that Brady and the Buccs be the first team to play in a super bowl in their home stadium.

The Problem with the Rams is that they don't have an Eli.

Goff can be that when he's healthy, but he's not and although I like LA's roster better, I can't ignore the gulf at the QB position.

[KChiefs1]

Packers - easy
Ravens - close
Chiefs - easy
Saints - this one was a toss up for me.

The history shows that teams who have swept the season series, have went 14-7 vs the other team. It would be great to see Brady vs Rodgers in Lambeau Field.

Championship Games:
Ravens @ Chiefs
Saints @ Packers

[wazu]

Packers
Chiefs
Bills
Bucs

Just watching them, the Bucs have looked sharper to me recently. I realize they were blownout twice by the Saints this year, but feels like Saints owning them 3 times is unlikely. For Bills/Ravens I think the Bills will put up points, and I ultimately don't trust Lamar to be able to hang in a potential shootout. The weather is another factor that I think is in Buffalo's favor.

[htismaqe]

Packers
Chiefs
Bills
Bucs

Just watching them, the Bucs have looked sharper to me recently. I realize they were blownout twice by the Saints this year, but feels like Saints owning them 3 times is unlikely. For Bills/Ravens I think the Bills will put up points, and I ultimately don't trust Lamar to be able to hang in a potential shootout. The weather is another factor that I think is in Buffalo's favor.

Why would the weather be in Buffalo's favor? They throw the ball more than any team in the league.

[wazu]

Why would the weather be in Buffalo's favor? They throw the ball more than any team in the league.

It wasn't the deciding factor for me. From what I've seen the weather shouldn't be so bad that teams can't throw the ball. Just judging by the two QBs, however, Lamar seems like the one more likely to struggle throwing in moderately worsened conditions.

[htismaqe]

It wasn't the deciding factor for me. From what I've seen the weather shouldn't be so bad that teams can't throw the ball. Just judging by the two QBs, however, Lamar seems like the one more likely to struggle throwing in moderately worsened conditions.

Yeah, but with Buffalo's defense, he might not have to throw more than 10-12 times. They can't stop a wet fart with that run defense.

[The Franchise]

I got the same 4, and the Bucs for the same reason.

Same here.

[htismaqe]

And for the record, I actually think the Bills have a slight advantage. I'd say like 55% to win.

But after last week, you couldn't pay me to pick the Bills. I hope they lose every playoff game they ever play for the rest of eternity.

[wazu]

Yeah, but with Buffalo's defense, he might not have to throw more than 10-12 times. They can't stop a wet fart with that run defense.

Maybe. I generally just don't trust a team that relies on the run against a team that puts up a ton of points. Even a bad run defense will get some stops as the run game relies on making many good plays to score. A holding penalty, a false start. So many things can stall out a drive. Bills will get their points it feels like no matter what.

[Why Not?]

Packers (but it’ll be close and I won’t be shocked if the Rams pull it off)
Ravens
Chiefs
Bucs

[KChiefs1]

I'm surprised by all the Buccaneers love.

So everyone is assuming that the NFL wants Brady in the NFC Championship game?

[htismaqe]

Maybe. I generally just don't trust a team that relies on the run against a team that puts up a ton of points. Even a bad run defense will get some stops as the run game relies on making many good plays to score. A holding penalty, a false start. So many things can stall out a drive. Bills will get their points it feels like no matter what.

It's all going to come down to the Bills and how they defend Jackson. He's the guy that can make runs into efficient scores, just like a good deep pass.

If they let him break of big runs, that goes against the whole idea of stopping a run-based attack by allowing them to make mistakes. He breaks the "bend, don't break" idea.

I don't know if the Bills have the means to do it. On the other side, the Ravens have a set of really good CB's, at least 3 deep, and a blitz scheme that could frustrate Allen. If they sit back in zone, they're dead, so they won't have a choice but to force it.

[htismaqe]

I'm surprised by all the Buccaneers love.

So everyone is assuming that the NFL wants Brady in the NFC Championship game?

It's going to take a couple of seasons of actually seeing it happen before I believe that the NFL will stop with the Brady promotion.

I picked the Bucs solely because I think he'll get enough flags to win.

[KChiefs1]

It's going to take a couple of seasons of actually seeing it happen before I believe that the NFL will stop with the Brady promotion.

I picked the Bucs solely because I think he'll get enough flags to win.

I went strictly by NFL history:

http://www.footballperspective.com/how-hard-is-it-to-beat-a-team-three-times-in-one-season/

It is hard to beat a good team three times in a season, they say.

Since the 1970 NFL Merger, there have been 21 instances where a team swept a team in the regular season and then had a third battle in the playoffs.
The sweeping team has gone 14-7 in those games, which means it must not be *that* hard to beat a playoff team three times in a season.

It is worth noting that in 4 of these 21 trio of games, the sweeping team was on the road in the postseason.
2 In the 17 instances where the postseason home team swept their playoff opponent during the regular season, the home teams went an impressive 12-5 in those games. The home team was, as you would expected, favored in all 17 games, with an average points spread of 5.8 points.

In the season opener, the Saints beat the Bucs by 11 points, and then the Saints shocked Tampa Bay on the road in the rematch, 38-3. Drew Brees threw 6 touchdowns and had no interceptions in the two games, while Tom Brady threw just 2 touchdowns and 5 interceptions while averaging just 5.13 net yards per attempt in those games. New Orleans won the two games by an average of 23 points a remarkable amount even for a two-game sweep. But it probably doesn’t mean much: there were three teams in our 17-paired sample where the sweeping team averaged a 17-point win or better during the regular season; shockingly, those teams went 0-3 in the playoff rematch.

So yes, the Saints sure seem well equipped to handle Tampa Bay based on their dominant performance in the regular season. But I think it is probably best just to ignore that; for the most part, the sweeping teams usually win because they were the better team in the regular season and were at home in the playoffs. In this case, New Orleans is a 3-point favorite in the rematch, a pretty low number due to the low homefield advantage in this COVID-19 world and the extremely similar points differential the two teams had during the regular season. I agree with Vegas: I’d make New Orleans the favorite, but this game feels close to a toss up. And while I wouldn’t put much stock in the Saints regular season sweeps, I certainly would ignore any analysis that says it’s hard to go 3-0 against a good team. Once you go 2-0, it’s actually not that hard!

The table below shows the 17 trio of games discussed above.
Again, the home playoff team after sweeping their postseason opponent has gone 12-7 since the merger.
The table below also includes links to all three games.

[htismaqe]

Tom Brady scoffs at history.

And kisses boys.

[Hayneplane]

I fancy the Rams to rattle Rodgers. He looked awful when Tampa Bay D line got at him and with Ramsey good enough to shut down his go to throwing option of Davante Adams I can see the frustration building into poor decisions.

[htismaqe]

I fancy the Rams to rattle Rodgers. He looked awful when Tampa Bay D line got at him and with Ramsey good enough to shut down his go to throwing option of Davante Adams I can see the frustration building into poor decisions.

Ramsey is good enough to slow down Adam but nobody is shutting him down completely, not 1-on-1.

[ClevelandBronco]

The reigning champs could save themselves a whole lot of embarrassment this weekend if they could find an excuse not to play the game.

[htismaqe]

The reigning champs could save themselves a whole lot of embarrassment this weekend if they could find an excuse not to play the game.

ROFL

Nice job, dude. :thumb:

[comochiefsfan]

I'm surprised by all the Buccaneers love.

So everyone is assuming that the NFL wants Brady in the NFC Championship game?

That and the league also hates Sean Payton.

Brady-Rodgers is just a far sexier matchup than Rodgers and the Corpse of Drew Brees.

[KChiefs1]

That and the league also hates Sean Payton.

Brady-Rodgers is just a far sexier matchup than Rodgers and the Corpse of Drew Brees.

I agree that the Rodgers vs Brady matchup at Lambeau would be great.

Which one does the NFL want on the AFC side?

Mahomes vs Allen
or
Mahomes vs Lamarvelous

[smithandrew051]

It's all going to come down to the Bills and how they defend Jackson. He's the guy that can make runs into efficient scores, just like a good deep pass.

If they let him break of big runs, that goes against the whole idea of stopping a run-based attack by allowing them to make mistakes. He breaks the "bend, don't break" idea.

I don't know if the Bills have the means to do it. On the other side, the Ravens have a set of really good CB's, at least 3 deep, and a blitz scheme that could frustrate Allen. If they sit back in zone, they're dead, so they won't have a choice but to force it.

I think some people saw what the Chiefs have done to the Ravens defense and assume the Bills will have similar success.

I don’t think it’s that simple. The Bills don’t have Travis Kelce for one. He is an absolute mismatch for any team.

[comochiefsfan]

I agree that the Rodgers vs Brady matchup at Lambeau would be great.

Which one does the NFL want on the AFC side?

Mahomes vs Allen
or
Mahomes vs Lamarvelous

I think Lamar still has more national appeal than Allen.

If you asked the league office who they're rooting for in that one I think they'd say Baltimore.

[KChiefs1]

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[Mama Hip Rockets]

I'm taking all four home teams this week.

[thabear04]

Ravens by 10
Saints by 3
Chiefs by 13
Packers by 10

[Sofa King]

Chiefs
Ravens
Packers
Saints

[FlaChief58]

Pack
Ravens
Chiefs
Saints

[Dartgod]

Clay picked the Browns. ROFL

[Stryker]

Packers
Bucs
Bills
Chiefs

Bills vs. Chiefs
Bucs vs. Packers

Packers vs. Chiefs SB

Chiefs win #runitback

My final answer! :thumb:

[OrtonsPiercedTaint]

Rav-Bill too close & covid still has a chance to rear it's ugly head yet

[htismaqe]

Clay picked the Browns. ROFL

He's going full Garcia.

[htismaqe]

I think some people saw what the Chiefs have done to the Ravens defense and assume the Bills will have similar success.

I don’t think it’s that simple. The Bills don’t have Travis Kelce for one. He is an absolute mismatch for any team.

Exactly.

[KChiefs1]

https://uploads.tapatalk-cdn.com/20210115/acb64aaf67b16fcb842e4a4be7406ec9.jpg

[FlaChief58]

https://uploads.tapatalk-cdn.com/20210115/acb64aaf67b16fcb842e4a4be7406ec9.jpg

Kay is a bad, bad girl and must be punished

[KC_Lee]

Packers
Bills
Chiefs
Bucs

[KChiefs1]

Kay is a bad, bad girl and must be punished

https://i0.wp.com/pics.wikifeet.com/Kay-Adams-Feet-3156422.jpg?resize=525%2C582&ssl=1

[AussieChiefsFan]

Packers
Bills
Chiefs
Buccaneers

Sent from my Galaxy S10

[redfan]

Chalk, ‘ceptin da Ravens.

[KChiefs1]

https://theathletic.com/2323197/2021/01/15/nfl-picks-predictions-divisional-round/

NFL picks against the spread: Predicting the divisional round matchups
by
Sheil Kapadia

Rams at Packers (-6.5)

It will be strength on strength at Lambeau Field. The Rams’ defense finished the season first in weighted DVOA, which means no one was playing better than them at the end of the season. And Los Angeles was flat-out dominant in its wild-card win over the Seahawks. The Packers’ offense, meanwhile, ranked first in DVOA during the regular season.

As outlined earlier this week, the Rams do a great job of not tipping their hand before the snap. Last week, they “fooled” Russell Wilson into a pick-six. The back-and-forth between Aaron Rodgers and the defense before the snap is going to be fun to watch. If there’s a weakness for the Rams, it’s going against play-action. According to TruMedia and Pro Football Focus, they ranked 14th in Expected Points Added (EPA) per play against play-action throws. Rodgers, meanwhile, was the league’s most efficient play-action passer. The Rams’ ability to handle Green Bay’s play-action schemes will go a long way in determining who wins this game.

It’s hard to know exactly what to expect on the other side of the ball. Mike Pettine might still be waking up with nightmares after what Kyle Shanahan did to him in the NFC Championship game last year. And in terms of DVOA, the Packers were actually slightly better in 2019 than they were this year.

Jared Goff will start, but Sean McVay won’t ask him to do too much. McVay needs to scheme up a couple big plays, but the Rams are likely to take a conservative, run-heavy approach.

The Packers are the better team, but I am a big believer in this Rams defense. Green Bay advances, but give me the points.

The pick: Rams (+6.5)


Ravens at Bills (-2.5)

The Bills’ defense did not look good last week. The Colts drove into Buffalo territory on every drive and piled up 27 first downs and 472 yards. Now they’ll face a Ravens team that has won six in a row after last week’s road victory at Tennessee.

Stefon Diggs, John Brown and the Bills receivers against Marlon Humphrey, Marcus Peters and the Ravens cornerbacks might be the most fun matchup in any of the divisional round games. Baltimore plays a heavy dose of man coverage, and Josh Allen was the league’s best quarterback against man coverage, according to Sports Info Solutions.

The Ravens blitzed at a higher rate than any defense in the regular season. Know who shredded the blitz? Josh Allen! The Bills ranked third in EPA per snap when opponents rushed five or more.

I think the winner of this game has a legitimate chance to win the Super Bowl. It would not surprise me at all if the Ravens pulled the upset. But one rule for the divisional round is to not overreact to the wild-card round. The Bills’ defense had been playing well down the stretch, and if they don’t turn the ball over, I think they’re going to put up points here.

The pick: Bills (-2.5)


Browns at Chiefs (-10)

The Browns are playing with house money. They can lose 37-0, and guess what? The season would still be considered a success. You can’t say that about any other team that is still alive. Cleveland is expected to get cornerback Denzel Ward back for this game, and that’s a big deal. During the regular season, when they had Ward, they performed like the 11th-ranked defense. Without him, they were one of the league’s worst.

It feels weird to say because they went 14-2, but the Chiefs were not juggernauts during the regular season. The last time they won a game by more than six points was Nov. 1 (Week 8). Was this a case of a team playing down to its competition? Would it surprise anyone to see Patrick Mahomes just carve up opponents for three straight games en route to a second Super Bowl? I don’t think so. But it’s also possible that the Chiefs just aren’t light years ahead of their competition.

The whole “control the clock” narrative is overrated. What the Browns need to do is score touchdowns at all costs. That means being aggressive on fourth downs, converting in the red zone and maybe taking risks on special teams.

I’m hesitant to go against this Browns team, given how often they’ve surprised me this year. But Andy Reid coming off a bye and Mahomes against that secondary might just be too much to handle.

The pick: Chiefs (-10)


Buccaneers at Saints (-3.5)

In two regular-season games, the Saints outscored the Bucs 72-26. Tampa was a high-percentage zone team in the regular season, and that plays right into Drew Brees’ hands. Brees ranked eighth in EPA per play against zone during the regular season. New Orleans didn’t light it up offensively last week against the Bears, but the Saints shredded Chicago on third down, converting 11 of 17 opportunities.

Meanwhile, the Bucs’ offense looked good against Washington. In eight games since their Week 10 loss to the Saints, Tampa’s offense ranks second in EPA per play behind only the Packers. The defense did not play well in the wild-card round, but the Bucs are expected to get linebacker Devin White back for this one.

The Bucs are a high-variance team, making them especially risky to wager on. But I think these teams are pretty even, so I’ll take the points and bet on the Bucs’ upside.

The pick: Buccaneers (+3.5)

[neech]

These are the traitors, the Benedict Arnolds if you will...

ClevelandBronco, Hammock Parties, lawrenceRaider, Wolfman

[neech]

Packers
Ravens
Chiefs
Bucs

[htismaqe]

These are the traders, the Benedict Arnolds if you will...

ClevelandBronco, Hammock Parties, lawrenceRaider, Wolfman

Well Cleveland Bronco and lawrenceRaider aren't Chiefs fans, so...

And Hammock is just being an outstanding citizen. ROFL

[PHOG]

https://www.cbssports.com/nfl/picks/experts/straight-up/19/

https://www.cbssports.com/nfl/picks/experts/against-the-spread/19/

[KChiefs1]

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[KChiefs1]

<iframe width="560" height="315" src="https://www.youtube.com/embed/GWM7wrNr6C4?start=258" frameborder="0" allow="accelerometer; autoplay; clipboard-write; encrypted-media; gyroscope; picture-in-picture" allowfullscreen></iframe>

[KChiefs1]

<iframe width="560" height="315" src="https://www.youtube.com/embed/RKQ0F43Pbcw?start=258" frameborder="0" allow="accelerometer; autoplay; clipboard-write; encrypted-media; gyroscope; picture-in-picture" allowfullscreen></iframe>

[KChiefs1]

https://uploads.tapatalk-cdn.com/20210115/288c9ca644fe3912531943cb926657c9.jpg

[KChiefs1]

https://uploads.tapatalk-cdn.com/20210116/e0d8643ae3a2fee92cb1596a7249af6f.jpg

[Baby Lee]

I'm surprised by all the Buccaneers love.

So everyone is assuming that the NFL wants Brady in the NFC Championship game?

I don't think there is a fix in, both are good teams. Brees is good, but when it comes to 'it' at the championship level, there's a disparity. The game is going to be close and 'boring' with the defenses doing a lot, and Brady will do something boring and brutally efficient to take the lead late [like a 4 pass, 7 run 85-yard drive], and it will be up to Brees to answer. The $1MQ will be if he sheds the 'chokes' [often ratfucks] of years past or notches another one.

I'm rooting for the Saints on my cousin's behalf, but if it comes down to Brady/Brees, Brady still holds an edge.

[AussieChiefsFan]

https://uploads.tapatalk-cdn.com/20210116/e0d8643ae3a2fee92cb1596a7249af6f.jpgWhat a joke LMAO

Sent from my Galaxy S10

[KChiefs1]

https://uploads.tapatalk-cdn.com/20210116/bc45afce64f07f63ae38bcb1d16be0c9.jpg

[KChiefs1]

https://uploads.tapatalk-cdn.com/20210116/5111585b5c6ce8c360405459486a94f8.jpg

[KChiefs1]

Packers - easy
Ravens - close
Chiefs - easy
Saints - this one was a toss up for me.

The history shows that teams who have swept the season series, have went 14-7 vs the other team. It would be great to see Brady vs Rodgers in Lambeau Field.

Championship Games:
Ravens @ Chiefs
Saints @ Packers


I also think today’s games will be high scoring & tomorrow’s games low scoring.

Rams vs Packers- over
Ravens vs Bills - over
Browns vs Chiefs - under
Buccaneers vs Saints - under

[Coochie liquor]

Pack
Ravens
Chiefs
Bucs

[Coochie liquor]

Clay picked the Browns. ROFL

Why does he do this every year?

[KChiefs1]

https://uploads.tapatalk-cdn.com/20210116/68d2c3dd6b67a2241a93410692f076cc.jpg

[Jerok]

Rams Bills Chiefs Saints

[New World Order]

PAckers, Ravens, Chiefs, Saints

[KChiefs1]

I had the Packers big. :thumb:

[KChiefs1]

<blockquote class="twitter-tweet"><p lang="en" dir="ltr">NFL Playoffs Divisional Round Viewers Guide for the Sunday Games -- Upsets in the making? <a href="https://t.co/Rc3uqq5p5u">https://t.co/Rc3uqq5p5u</a></p>&mdash; Patricia Traina (@Patricia_Traina) <a href="https://twitter.com/Patricia_Traina/status/1350821484030259206?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">January 17, 2021</a></blockquote> <script async src="https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js" charset="utf-8"></script>

[KChiefs1]

Packers - easy
Ravens - close
Chiefs - easy
Saints - this one was a toss up for me.

The history shows that teams who have swept the season series, have went 14-7 vs the other team. It would be great to see Brady vs Rodgers in Lambeau Field.

Championship Games:
Ravens @ Chiefs
Saints @ Packers


2-2

Championship Sunday:
Buccaneers @ Packers
Bills @ Chiefs.

Super Bowl LV:
Chiefs vs Packers

Records vs teams remaining:
Chiefs 2-0
Buccaneers 1-1
Packers 0-1
Bills 0-1

[OrtonsPiercedTaint]

Last week 1-4/ this week 3-?