tk13
02-04-2004, 02:25 AM
http://sports.yahoo.com/mlb/news?slug=royalspreviewchangesabou&prov=tsn&type=lgns
Royals preview: Changes abound, ballpark and all
By George Winkler - SportingNews.com
The latest in a series of team-by-team fantasy analyses previewing the 2004 season.
Who's here: P Jaime Cerda, P Joe Dawley, OF Juan Gonzalez, IF Tony Graffanino, C Benito Santiago, OF Matt Stairs, C Kelly Stinnett, P Scott Sullivan.
Who's gone: P Paul Abbott, 2B Brent Abernathy, OF Benny Agbayani, C Mike DiFelice, OF Raul Ibanez, P Al Levine, P Jose Lima, C Brett Mayne, C Tom Prince, P Shawn Sedlacek, OF Michael Tucker, OF Rondell White.
WHAT'S NEW
The biggest change might not be who's on the field, but a change to the field itself. The organization will move the fences back 10 feet at Kauffman Stadium to the original dimensions of 410 feet in center field and 385 in the power alleys. This is big news, considering the Royals' home had transformed into a hitters park in recent years.
Last season, Kauffman Stadium ranked second to Coors Field by allowing 2.43 more runs per game than the average ballpark. The Royals ranked fourth in the league in runs and came within six home runs of tying the franchise's record (168) for a season. With the bigger ballpark, that record should be safe. It also should allow a young rotation loaded with lefties to pitch with more confidence.
Ironically, Juan Gonzalez, who complained about the fences being too far at Comerica Park when he was with the Tigers, is one of two key additions the Royals are counting on to produce. Gonzalez and catcher Benito Santiago will add experience and power to the middle of the Royals' lineup, provided they can remain healthy.
While Gonzalez has 40-homer potential, he has played in a total of 152 games over the past two seasons thanks to four trips to the disabled list. He hit 24 home runs in 82 games last season (in 327 at-bats), so you can imagine what a full season from Juan Gone would mean to your team, as well as to the Royals.
Projected lineup
1. Angel Berroa, SS
2. Aaron Guiel, LF
3. Carlos Beltran, CF
4. Mike Sweeney, 1B
5. Juan Gonzalez, RF
6. Joe Randa, 3B
7. Benito Santiago, C
8. Ken Harvey, DH
9. Desi Relaford, 2B
INFIELD
Catcher: Santiago will be 39 on opening day, but that's not the only reason to doubt his fantasy potential. He's also switching leagues, so a lot of the pitchers will be new to him. It also won't help that his hitting probably will have to take a backseat to managing a young pitching staff. Working in Santiago's favor is the fact he is Kansas City's main man. Kelly Stinnett posted better defensive numbers than Santiago last season but is only a .236 career hitter. However, don't put too much stock in Benito. He faded down the stretch in 2003, and it appeared the 2002 season, when he hit 16 homers and helped the Giants to the World Series, was only a last hurrah.
First base: Mike Sweeney is a top 10 first baseman in mixed leagues. That's because he has the potential to produce a .300 average with 30 homers and 90-plus RBIs. But you better take out an insurance policy on him because he hasn't reached those numbers the past two seasons thanks to back and neck injuries. After playing in just 126 games in 2002, he hit only 16 home runs and had 83 RBIs in 108 games last year. Those numbers won't get the job done at a position so deep in power providers. Sweeney is a high risk-reward pick, and you should hold off on drafting him until the sure-thing selections are off the board.
Second base: Although Desi Relaford finally won the everyday job last season, some questions remain, including an offseason surgery to repair a torn ligament in his left wrist. The injury limited the switch hitter to batting lefthanded and his numbers dropped significantly in the second half of last season. Because of that, it's difficult to say if Relaford can enjoy success over a full season at one position. It's worth taking a chance on him if you're looking for steals, but keep in mind the Royals signed utilityman Tony Graffanino and will use him if Relaford can't finish the job this time.
Third base: If it's an average Joe you need at third base, then Joe Randa is your man. He consistently bats in the upper .200s and will provide about 80 RBIs and nearly that many runs per season. His batting average, on-base percentage and slugging percentage all have been trending upward over the past three seasons. And he is moving from the No. 2 spot in the order to No. 6, sandwiched between Juan Gonzalez and Benito Santiago. Randa is getting on in age and his ups and downs at the plate can be maddening to fantasy owners. But stick with him over the full season, and you should get his usually solid output.
Shortstop: Reigning AL Rookie of the Year Angel Berroa still flies under the radar of some, so he'll be a nice value pick once the elite options are gone at shortstop. But you might want to grab him a little sooner. Berroa showed last season he has the ability to fill up five categories, and if he can stay at the top of the Royals' order, expect him to build on the 21 stolen bases he posted last season. Sure, there's a chance Berroa could experience a sophomore jinx, but his numbers were fairly consistent from month to month in 2003, indicating a prolonged slump is unlikely. And the addition of Graffanino should help Berroa stay fresh.
OUTFIELD
Left field: Aaron Guiel will move here from right field to accommodate the addition of Gonzalez, but it likely won't be the only move Guiel makes this season. Guiel, who spent time in the leadoff spot last season, is expected to drop to second in the order. And based on his inconsistent play, he could either move toward solidifying his starting role or move out of the starting lineup completely; veteran Matt Stairs is waiting in the wings. Guiel showed potential by hitting 15 home runs in only 354 at-bats last season, but pitchers will have a more complete book on him in 2004. At 31 on opening day, Guiel is a late bloomer, but he has more promise than some of the retreads you'll encounter when trying to bolster your outfield picks.
Center field: Carlos Beltran became just the sixth player in the modern era to reach 100 runs, 100 RBIs and 30 stolen bases in three seasons. Add the ability to hit 25 homers and score 100 runs to the mix, and what's not to like about Beltran? He will be the most-coveted Royal on draft day and is certain to be gone by at least the early second round. If you find him available in the early second round, well, then you just made the steal of the draft. Speaking of steals, Beltran's stolen-base numbers have climbed steadily the past three seasons. His 41 last season were what separated him from most other elite outfielders.
Right field: Juan Gonzalez is the devil's work when it comes to fantasy baseball. His numbers over a half-season tempt even the most conservative owners, who drool over what he could accomplish if he were healthy for an entire season. But he hasn't enjoyed anything near an entire season since 2001 with the Indians, when he hit 35 homers and had 140 RBIs. He has a tender back that won't improve at his age (34), but he's worth a gamble as your third or fourth outfielder. With a one-year deal in Kansas City, Gonzalez will be out to prove he's worth every penny of the $4 million, with an eye toward making more in the future.
Designated hitter: In his first full season in the majors, Ken Harvey pulled double duty in 2003 as the Royals' designated hitter and fill-in at first base for Mike Sweeney. Provided Sweeney stays healthy, Harvey will get to concentrate solely on his hitting this time around. And we hope the extra focus will help Harvey cut down on his strikeouts; he had 94 in 485 at-bats and walked only 29 times. It's worth keeping tabs on Harvey, because if his batting eye improves, he's a player who could begin to blossom. But Harvey also could experience a playing-time crunch if the Royals decide to spot start Juan Gonzalez at DH in an attempt to keep him healthy.
STARTING PITCHING Projected rotation
1. Darrell May, L
2. Brian Anderson, L
3. Jeremy Affeldt, L
4. Jimmy Gobble, L
5. Kevin Appier, R
Darrell May is a man on the move, from Royals fifth starter to their ace going into this season. He's a crafty lefty who relies more on his control than power to get people out. He won 10 of his last 19 starts in 2003 and finished with a good 1.19 WHIP. But because he doesn't have a long history and will be in a more pressure-packed role, beware of drafting him too early. In mixed leagues, he's a good No. 4 or No. 5 fantasy starter.
Brian Anderson was one of the hottest starters down the stretch last season, as his 4-0 record and 3.35 ERA in September indicated. But he won't strike out a lot of people, averaging just four per nine innings in 2003. Plus, he has struggled to keep his WHIP down in the past. In mixed leagues, he's a No. 5 starter at best.
Jeremy Affeldt might have the best stuff on the Royals' staff. He can throw a mid-90s fastball, then buckle the knees with a curve that is up to 20 miles per hour slower. But he struggled with blister problems last season to the point he changed his grip. And there has been talk of moving Affeldt back to the bullpen. It's probably best to take the wait-and-see approach with him.
The Royals want prospect Jimmy Gobble, yet another lefthander, to crack the rotation this spring. He went 4-5 with a 4.61 ERA in nine starts last season. He changes speeds well, but he's probably another year away from serious consideration in most fantasy leagues.
Then, there's cagey vet Kevin Appier, a proven winner and innings-eater when healthy. But he'll be 36 years old and is coming off elbow surgery, so there isn't much upside with him.
Appier and Gobble will have to fight off Miguel Asencio, a righthander who went 2-1 with a 5.21 ERA in eight starts before arthroscopic elbow surgery ended his season. But while Asencio could find himself in a prominent role later, his initial value will be only in AL-only leagues.
Projected bullpen
Closer: Mike MacDougal, R
RP1: Curtis Leskanic, R
RP2: Jason Grimsley, R
The Royals will give Mike MacDougal the first shot at holding the closer role. He was effective enough to earn an All-Star bid last season, but his production fell off after that. He shared the save chances with Jeremy Affeldt and Curtis Leskanic down the stretch, and could do so again this season. The Royals have hinted at using either Ryan Bukvich or Affeldt if MacDougal falters.
Leskanic is penciled in as the Royals' main setup man. His strikeouts mirror his innings pitched, and he had 11 holds in his new role last season. However, he needs to decrease his WHIP in order to become of significant value to fantasy leaguers.
Jason Grimsley faded last season after the All-Star break, and with his WHIP and ERA on the rise in the past three seasons, it's best to stay away from him.
ON THE RISE
Angel Berroa, SS. He's a five-category stud who soon could be living in the neighborhood occupied by Alex Rodriguez, Nomar Garciaparra, Miguel Tejada and Derek Jeter.
ON THE DECLINE
Benito Santiago, C. There's plenty of gray in the goatee, and it could get worse while he tries to tutor a young staff.
INJURY RISK
Juan Gonzalez, OF, and Mike Sweeney, 1B. It's difficult to count on a lineup being great when its pillars of strength are showing cracks.
SLEEPER
Aaron Guiel, OF He has the look of a professional hitter thanks to good plate discipline and the ability to adjust given the situation.
TSN GAMES TIP
One of the keys to TSN's Ultimate Fantasy Baseball is picking unproven players and watching their value grow when they outperform their preseason outlook. The Royals are loaded with young pitchers whose values are likely to rise, and you could gain an advantage by taking a chance on one of them early in the season.
COMING SOON
Zack Greinke, SP. Keep an eye on this pitching phenom, who was named the Sporting News' Minor League Player of the Year in 2003.
Royals preview: Changes abound, ballpark and all
By George Winkler - SportingNews.com
The latest in a series of team-by-team fantasy analyses previewing the 2004 season.
Who's here: P Jaime Cerda, P Joe Dawley, OF Juan Gonzalez, IF Tony Graffanino, C Benito Santiago, OF Matt Stairs, C Kelly Stinnett, P Scott Sullivan.
Who's gone: P Paul Abbott, 2B Brent Abernathy, OF Benny Agbayani, C Mike DiFelice, OF Raul Ibanez, P Al Levine, P Jose Lima, C Brett Mayne, C Tom Prince, P Shawn Sedlacek, OF Michael Tucker, OF Rondell White.
WHAT'S NEW
The biggest change might not be who's on the field, but a change to the field itself. The organization will move the fences back 10 feet at Kauffman Stadium to the original dimensions of 410 feet in center field and 385 in the power alleys. This is big news, considering the Royals' home had transformed into a hitters park in recent years.
Last season, Kauffman Stadium ranked second to Coors Field by allowing 2.43 more runs per game than the average ballpark. The Royals ranked fourth in the league in runs and came within six home runs of tying the franchise's record (168) for a season. With the bigger ballpark, that record should be safe. It also should allow a young rotation loaded with lefties to pitch with more confidence.
Ironically, Juan Gonzalez, who complained about the fences being too far at Comerica Park when he was with the Tigers, is one of two key additions the Royals are counting on to produce. Gonzalez and catcher Benito Santiago will add experience and power to the middle of the Royals' lineup, provided they can remain healthy.
While Gonzalez has 40-homer potential, he has played in a total of 152 games over the past two seasons thanks to four trips to the disabled list. He hit 24 home runs in 82 games last season (in 327 at-bats), so you can imagine what a full season from Juan Gone would mean to your team, as well as to the Royals.
Projected lineup
1. Angel Berroa, SS
2. Aaron Guiel, LF
3. Carlos Beltran, CF
4. Mike Sweeney, 1B
5. Juan Gonzalez, RF
6. Joe Randa, 3B
7. Benito Santiago, C
8. Ken Harvey, DH
9. Desi Relaford, 2B
INFIELD
Catcher: Santiago will be 39 on opening day, but that's not the only reason to doubt his fantasy potential. He's also switching leagues, so a lot of the pitchers will be new to him. It also won't help that his hitting probably will have to take a backseat to managing a young pitching staff. Working in Santiago's favor is the fact he is Kansas City's main man. Kelly Stinnett posted better defensive numbers than Santiago last season but is only a .236 career hitter. However, don't put too much stock in Benito. He faded down the stretch in 2003, and it appeared the 2002 season, when he hit 16 homers and helped the Giants to the World Series, was only a last hurrah.
First base: Mike Sweeney is a top 10 first baseman in mixed leagues. That's because he has the potential to produce a .300 average with 30 homers and 90-plus RBIs. But you better take out an insurance policy on him because he hasn't reached those numbers the past two seasons thanks to back and neck injuries. After playing in just 126 games in 2002, he hit only 16 home runs and had 83 RBIs in 108 games last year. Those numbers won't get the job done at a position so deep in power providers. Sweeney is a high risk-reward pick, and you should hold off on drafting him until the sure-thing selections are off the board.
Second base: Although Desi Relaford finally won the everyday job last season, some questions remain, including an offseason surgery to repair a torn ligament in his left wrist. The injury limited the switch hitter to batting lefthanded and his numbers dropped significantly in the second half of last season. Because of that, it's difficult to say if Relaford can enjoy success over a full season at one position. It's worth taking a chance on him if you're looking for steals, but keep in mind the Royals signed utilityman Tony Graffanino and will use him if Relaford can't finish the job this time.
Third base: If it's an average Joe you need at third base, then Joe Randa is your man. He consistently bats in the upper .200s and will provide about 80 RBIs and nearly that many runs per season. His batting average, on-base percentage and slugging percentage all have been trending upward over the past three seasons. And he is moving from the No. 2 spot in the order to No. 6, sandwiched between Juan Gonzalez and Benito Santiago. Randa is getting on in age and his ups and downs at the plate can be maddening to fantasy owners. But stick with him over the full season, and you should get his usually solid output.
Shortstop: Reigning AL Rookie of the Year Angel Berroa still flies under the radar of some, so he'll be a nice value pick once the elite options are gone at shortstop. But you might want to grab him a little sooner. Berroa showed last season he has the ability to fill up five categories, and if he can stay at the top of the Royals' order, expect him to build on the 21 stolen bases he posted last season. Sure, there's a chance Berroa could experience a sophomore jinx, but his numbers were fairly consistent from month to month in 2003, indicating a prolonged slump is unlikely. And the addition of Graffanino should help Berroa stay fresh.
OUTFIELD
Left field: Aaron Guiel will move here from right field to accommodate the addition of Gonzalez, but it likely won't be the only move Guiel makes this season. Guiel, who spent time in the leadoff spot last season, is expected to drop to second in the order. And based on his inconsistent play, he could either move toward solidifying his starting role or move out of the starting lineup completely; veteran Matt Stairs is waiting in the wings. Guiel showed potential by hitting 15 home runs in only 354 at-bats last season, but pitchers will have a more complete book on him in 2004. At 31 on opening day, Guiel is a late bloomer, but he has more promise than some of the retreads you'll encounter when trying to bolster your outfield picks.
Center field: Carlos Beltran became just the sixth player in the modern era to reach 100 runs, 100 RBIs and 30 stolen bases in three seasons. Add the ability to hit 25 homers and score 100 runs to the mix, and what's not to like about Beltran? He will be the most-coveted Royal on draft day and is certain to be gone by at least the early second round. If you find him available in the early second round, well, then you just made the steal of the draft. Speaking of steals, Beltran's stolen-base numbers have climbed steadily the past three seasons. His 41 last season were what separated him from most other elite outfielders.
Right field: Juan Gonzalez is the devil's work when it comes to fantasy baseball. His numbers over a half-season tempt even the most conservative owners, who drool over what he could accomplish if he were healthy for an entire season. But he hasn't enjoyed anything near an entire season since 2001 with the Indians, when he hit 35 homers and had 140 RBIs. He has a tender back that won't improve at his age (34), but he's worth a gamble as your third or fourth outfielder. With a one-year deal in Kansas City, Gonzalez will be out to prove he's worth every penny of the $4 million, with an eye toward making more in the future.
Designated hitter: In his first full season in the majors, Ken Harvey pulled double duty in 2003 as the Royals' designated hitter and fill-in at first base for Mike Sweeney. Provided Sweeney stays healthy, Harvey will get to concentrate solely on his hitting this time around. And we hope the extra focus will help Harvey cut down on his strikeouts; he had 94 in 485 at-bats and walked only 29 times. It's worth keeping tabs on Harvey, because if his batting eye improves, he's a player who could begin to blossom. But Harvey also could experience a playing-time crunch if the Royals decide to spot start Juan Gonzalez at DH in an attempt to keep him healthy.
STARTING PITCHING Projected rotation
1. Darrell May, L
2. Brian Anderson, L
3. Jeremy Affeldt, L
4. Jimmy Gobble, L
5. Kevin Appier, R
Darrell May is a man on the move, from Royals fifth starter to their ace going into this season. He's a crafty lefty who relies more on his control than power to get people out. He won 10 of his last 19 starts in 2003 and finished with a good 1.19 WHIP. But because he doesn't have a long history and will be in a more pressure-packed role, beware of drafting him too early. In mixed leagues, he's a good No. 4 or No. 5 fantasy starter.
Brian Anderson was one of the hottest starters down the stretch last season, as his 4-0 record and 3.35 ERA in September indicated. But he won't strike out a lot of people, averaging just four per nine innings in 2003. Plus, he has struggled to keep his WHIP down in the past. In mixed leagues, he's a No. 5 starter at best.
Jeremy Affeldt might have the best stuff on the Royals' staff. He can throw a mid-90s fastball, then buckle the knees with a curve that is up to 20 miles per hour slower. But he struggled with blister problems last season to the point he changed his grip. And there has been talk of moving Affeldt back to the bullpen. It's probably best to take the wait-and-see approach with him.
The Royals want prospect Jimmy Gobble, yet another lefthander, to crack the rotation this spring. He went 4-5 with a 4.61 ERA in nine starts last season. He changes speeds well, but he's probably another year away from serious consideration in most fantasy leagues.
Then, there's cagey vet Kevin Appier, a proven winner and innings-eater when healthy. But he'll be 36 years old and is coming off elbow surgery, so there isn't much upside with him.
Appier and Gobble will have to fight off Miguel Asencio, a righthander who went 2-1 with a 5.21 ERA in eight starts before arthroscopic elbow surgery ended his season. But while Asencio could find himself in a prominent role later, his initial value will be only in AL-only leagues.
Projected bullpen
Closer: Mike MacDougal, R
RP1: Curtis Leskanic, R
RP2: Jason Grimsley, R
The Royals will give Mike MacDougal the first shot at holding the closer role. He was effective enough to earn an All-Star bid last season, but his production fell off after that. He shared the save chances with Jeremy Affeldt and Curtis Leskanic down the stretch, and could do so again this season. The Royals have hinted at using either Ryan Bukvich or Affeldt if MacDougal falters.
Leskanic is penciled in as the Royals' main setup man. His strikeouts mirror his innings pitched, and he had 11 holds in his new role last season. However, he needs to decrease his WHIP in order to become of significant value to fantasy leaguers.
Jason Grimsley faded last season after the All-Star break, and with his WHIP and ERA on the rise in the past three seasons, it's best to stay away from him.
ON THE RISE
Angel Berroa, SS. He's a five-category stud who soon could be living in the neighborhood occupied by Alex Rodriguez, Nomar Garciaparra, Miguel Tejada and Derek Jeter.
ON THE DECLINE
Benito Santiago, C. There's plenty of gray in the goatee, and it could get worse while he tries to tutor a young staff.
INJURY RISK
Juan Gonzalez, OF, and Mike Sweeney, 1B. It's difficult to count on a lineup being great when its pillars of strength are showing cracks.
SLEEPER
Aaron Guiel, OF He has the look of a professional hitter thanks to good plate discipline and the ability to adjust given the situation.
TSN GAMES TIP
One of the keys to TSN's Ultimate Fantasy Baseball is picking unproven players and watching their value grow when they outperform their preseason outlook. The Royals are loaded with young pitchers whose values are likely to rise, and you could gain an advantage by taking a chance on one of them early in the season.
COMING SOON
Zack Greinke, SP. Keep an eye on this pitching phenom, who was named the Sporting News' Minor League Player of the Year in 2003.