Scientists concerned about Mount St. Helens

[tk13]

http://news.yahoo.com/news?tmpl=story&u=/ap/20040927/ap_on_sc/st__helens_quakes_4

Volcanic Unrest in Mount St. Helens Crater

8 minutes ago Add Science - AP to My Yahoo!

By MELANTHIA MITCHELL, Associated Press Writer

SEATTLE - Seismologists believe there's an increased likelihood of a hazardous event at Mount St. Helens due to a strengthening series of earthquakes at the volcano.

"The key issue is a small explosion without warning. That would be the major event that we're worried about right now," said Willie Scott, a geologist with the USGS (news - web sites) office in Vancouver.

Initially, hundreds of tiny earthquakes that began Thursday morning had slowly declined through Saturday. By Sunday, however, there had been more than 10 temblors of magnitude 2.0 to 2.8, the most in a 24-hour period since the last dome-building eruption in October 1986, Scott said.

The quakes have occurred at depths less than one mile below the lava dome within the mountain's crater. Some of the earthquakes suggest the involvement of pressurized fluids, such as water or steam, and perhaps magma.

Mount St. Helens is about 55 miles northeast of Portland, Ore.

A group of scientists planned to visit the mountain Monday and conduct a flyover to test for carbon dioxide and sulfur gases, which could suggest the involvement of magma. They'll also erect additional seismic sensors and sophisticated global positioning devices to measure activity.

In the event of an explosion, Scott said the concern would be focused on the area within the crater and the flanks of the volcano. It's possible that a five-mile area primarily north of the volcano could receive flows of mud and rock debris.

That portion of the mountain blew out during the May 18, 1980, eruption that left 57 people dead, devastating hundreds of square miles around the peak and spewing ash over much of the Northwest.

"We haven't had a swarm of earthquakes at Mount St. Helens since 2001," state seismologist Tony Qamar said. "Clearly something new is happening."

Qamar said if an eruption did occur it would possibly involve ash and steam, called phreatic eruptions.

The cause and outcome of the swarm were uncertain Sunday evening.

"There's been no explosions, there's no outward sign that anything is occurring. This is all based on the pattern of earthquake activity that is occurring below the dome," said Scott.

Experts believe there is "an increased probability of explosions from the lava dome if the level of current unrest continues or escalates," USGS and the University of Washington Pacific Northwest Seismograph Network in Seattle said in a joint statement.

A similar swarm of quakes in November 2001 and another in the summer of 1998 did not result in an eruption. However, the quakes could increase the likelihood of small rock slides from the 876-foot-tall lava dome within the mountain's crater.

In the 1986 eruption, magma reached the surface and added to the pile of lava on the crater floor.

[tk13]

It's apparently not getting any better....

http://news.yahoo.com/news?tmpl=story&u=/ap/20040928/ap_on_sc/st__helens_quakes_11

One or Two Quakes a Minute in Washington

1 hour, 18 minutes ago Add Science - AP to My Yahoo!

By PEGGY ANDERSEN, Associated Press Writer

SEATTLE - Small earthquakes rattled Mount St. Helens at the rate of one or two a minute Monday, and seismologists were working to determine the significance of some of the most intense seismic activity in nearly 20 years.

Carbon dioxide and sulfur gas samples collected above the volcano — which erupted to devastating effect in 1980 — will help scientists figure out what is going on beneath the 925-foot-high dome of hardened lava within the mountain's gaping crater. They want to know whether the quakes are the result of water seeping into the mountain or magma moving under its crater.

In either case, scientists will continue to watch it from the Cascade Volcano Observatory operated by the U.S. Geological Survey (news - web sites) in Vancouver, Wash., about 50 miles away.

"But if it's magma, we'll be a lot more nervous," said the observatory's chief scientist Jeff Winn.

A helicopter was to carry scientists and instruments over the crater Monday afternoon, to assess the gases and ground deformation that would indicate pressure building below the dome.

Measurements of ground movement "will tell us whether there's any new magma coming into the system," said Seth Moran, a seismologist at the observatory. That data will not be immediately available.

Swarms of small earthquakes began Thursday and increased in frequency and magnitude until Sunday, when there were more than 10 events with a magnitude of 2 to 2.8. The quakes are at depths less than one mile below the lava dome.

By Monday, the pace was unchanged but the magnitude had lessened, Winn said.

Moran said there was potential for explosions within the crater that could throw rocks as far as the rim.

The USGS (news - web sites) issued a notice of volcanic unrest on Sunday, citing "an increased likelihood of a hazardous event." U.S. Forest Service officials closed hiking trails above the tree line at 4,800 feet on the 8,364-foot mountain, though the visitor's center and most other trails at the Mount St. Helens National Monument remained open.

St. Helens' May 18, 1980, eruption killed 57 people, leveled hundreds of square miles of forests and dumped volcanic ash across the Northwest.

In October 1980, the lava dome began building in the crater. The last dome-building eruption was in October 1986, but there have been periodic steam explosions.

Sunday's activity was the most in a 24-hour period since the 1986 eruption, said survey geologist Willie Scott. Earthquake swarms in 1998 and 2001 did not result in any surface activity.

If there is an explosion, Scott said concern would be focused within the crater and on the upper flanks of the volcano. A five-mile area, primarily north of the volcano, could receive flows of mud and rock debris.

On Monday, a helicopter lowered a geophysicist onto the lava dome to replace a failed instrument used to measure tiny movements that indicate whether the dome is swelling, Winn said.

While the chopper was near the dome, the pilot was in radio contact with Bobbie Myers, another geophysicist who during the 1980 blast learned to detect subtle changes in seismic monitors.

"She's known to be able to predict explosive events up to a couple of minutes ahead of time," Winn said.

[siberian khatru]

Looks like Taco John won't be the only source of hot air in Portland soon.

[Valiant]

hmmm..the biggest mud flow and volcanic range in the US and people are concearned... Doesnt living in Seattle and the surrounding areas prepare you for this...

joe, you ready for volcanoes erupting...

[TEX]

And right when the Hawks finally get good and build a cool stadium...

[Demonpenz]

Our volcano is imploding

[Inspector]

Damnit Carl!!!

[Ultra Peanut]

The key issue is a small explosion without warning. That would be the major event that we're worried about right nowIS IT SMALL OR IS IT MAJOR?!?!?!?!?!?!?!?!?!?!?!?!?!?!?! TELL ME!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

[chiefsfan987]

They've been showing this stuff on the news. I don't know about anyone else in the area, but I'm not concerned...

[Terribilis]

did you guys ever hear about that super volcano in yellowstone

[Terribilis]

http://www.solcomhouse.com/yellowstone.htm

[Ultra Peanut]

http://www.chiefsplanet.com/BB/showthread.php?t=66834&highlight=caldera

[Ultra Peanut]

Know what's scary about volcanoes?

Pyroclastic flow. Bad news.

[Bowser]

Know what's scary about volcanoes?

Pyroclastic flow. Bad news.

Interesting. I always figured it was the hotter than hell lava burning the skin right the f*** off your bones.

I must have slept through No Shit 101!










:D

[Ultra Peanut]

The pyroclastic flow is bad news, yo.

At least, that's what always got me about them. Just a cloud of ash sweeping down, knocking things around, and incinerating everything in its path.

[Ultra Peanut]

Here we go:

Most people killed in pyroclastic flows die either by being crushed by debris or burned by the hot ash and gas. Trees, cars, and parts of buildings may be picked up and thrown like toys during the intense passing of a pyroclastic flow. People outside may be crushed by such debris while people indoors may be buried under a collapsing wall or roof. As terrible as it sounds, these people may be considered the lucky ones. Those not crushed usually succumb to the intense heat. Gas and ash, as hot as 660 degrees Celsius, can instantly ignite clothes, hair, and exposed skin…only to be extinguished by the lack of oxygen. These are later reignited when oxygen reenters the area. The burning gas and ash are breathed in by victims, most of whom die after a few short breaths. The lungs are either seared or are choked to death by massive quantities of ash. Some victims in the city of Saint Pierre, which was devastated in 1902, withstood days of agony before dieing due to burning of the lungs. Bodies were found in contorted positions, desperately gasping for oxygen. Once the cloud passes, however, the trouble is not over for survivors. The freshly laid deposit of ash and debris is extraordinarily hot and will burn through shoes for people trying to escape. Moreover, with the return of oxygen and the presence of burning ash, buildings are soon ignited and raging fires may cause further devastation.

[David.]

yah, pyroclastic flow does TONS of damage. Lava is childs play

[Ebolapox]

I know this isn't the place to really post this, but this came to mind---

Liquid hot MAG----MA

-EB-...unless you pay us---one MILLION dollars!!!

[Taco John]

They've been showing this stuff on the news. I don't know about anyone else in the area, but I'm not concerned...



Of course you're not concerned. You live in Seattle. That's far enough away that Mt. St Helens could start spewing beer and it'd dry up before you got a drop.

[David.]

I'd be scared shitless.

[Ebolapox]

I'd be scared shitless.

you and everyone else--damned vulcan death grip!!!

-EB-...wait, that was positively gochiefsesque

[Taco John]

So... Uh. If it erupts, and I die in a fiery torment of pyroclastic nastiness...

Have a good one.

[Ebolapox]

So... Uh. If it erupts, and I die in a fiery torment of pyroclastic nastiness...

Have a good one.

yup, that's about it--though, you might want to do the whole repent for 'thine sins' bit--I've heard that always helps out, though you're prolly in luck--god obviously isn't a chiefs fan :banghead:

-EB-

[Ultra Peanut]

Aren't you in Portland?

[Taco John]

yup, that's about it--though, you might want to do the whole repent for 'thine sins' bit--I've heard that always helps out, though you're prolly in luck--god obviously isn't a chiefs fan :banghead:

-EB-



I'm an odd duck in that regard... I'm a Christian (I beleive that Jesus Christ was God-incarnate) who believes in reincarnation.

[Ebolapox]

I'm an odd duck in that regard... I'm a Christian (I beleive that Jesus Christ was God-incarnate) who believes in reincarnation.

interesting viewpoint--I'm not sure I consider myself a christian, though I do believe in a higher power--call him (or her, pick your poison) buddah, allah, yahweh, elohim, god, brahma, shiva, take your pick--doesn't matter to me--reincarnation, never gave it much thought--other than a few books I've read on the subject, though they didn't contain enough real meat to them to give me any second thoughts--though I do believe that one should lead a life that isn't found wanting in any way--because I believe eventually, 'what goes around comes around'--eventually, we all pay for our misdeeds, and we eventually reap the rewards of our good deeds

-EB-...not even going to get into my disdain for organized religion, not going to make this a religion thread

[Taco John]

Aren't you in Portland?


Yeah... Sorta...

I live in Vancouver, WA, which is just across the river and serves as a bedroom community to Portland... a tax shelter from the People's Republic of Oregon.

I live about an hour and 15 minutes away from Mt. St Helens:

http://mq-mapgend.websys.aol.com/mqmapgend?MQMapGenRequest=FDR2dmwjDE%3byt2l%26FDJnci4Jkqj%2cMMCJ%3aHOEvq%3bw8gq4a%3a%29ualqz1x%26%40 %24%3a%26%40%245%264bs%26wbs%26ESEKGF%3dTPWIK%2cr0u420%26%3d2l101g1%40%24%3a%26%40%24%3a%26f2w9%40%3 aHOHQJ%3bw80lry%3a%29ualgy7x%26%40%24%3a%26%40%24%3ahu1l%26%26FDEmvqjHqjwjg%7c%14D%13%13%17OHM%26wz2 d01%3a%29ual1f1a%26%3dba%26%3d8a%26%3d85%26%3drx%26%3dand%40%5fn1f%24%2ehy%24%2eha%24%2elw%24%2e96t% 3a%29y8%3a%29f8%3a%294z%3a%29ua2%26%3dt0%26az%3a%29f%24x1%40%5fl0%40%5fnh%40%5f5d%40%5f5d%40%5fa5%40 %5fa1%40%5fau%40%5fnh%40%5f0u%407%3a%29w7%3ahf%24%2egz%24%2elf%24%2eqz%24%2e0f%24%2e902%3a%2947%3a%2 9rz%3a%290%24%2eq%40%5fluw%24%2eq4%24%2e16t%3a%29yt%3a%2908a%26%3d82%26%3daa%26%3d82%26%3das%26%3dt0 %26%3d1%3a1%40%5fng4%245%26%3dyn%26%3daw%26%3d2nd%40t%3a%29u7g%26%3dbw%26%3dyn%26%3d82%26%3dz5%26%3d 2n9%40%5fl9%40%5fn10%24%2ed6%24%2eqa%24%2eg%40%5fw0%40%5f51%40%5fndy%24%2e96z%3a%29u8n%26%3d229%40%5 f0q%40%5fx%26%3d255%40%5fs%26%3dbwg%40r%3a%29u2a%26%3drx%26%3d8n9%40%5fn1%40%5fn5z%24x%26%3d2nd%40%5 fl5%40%5faq%40%5flu6%24%2edu%24%2e168%3a%290y%3a%290r5%26u1%3a%290t2%26%3da2%26%3d25h%40%5fgu%40%5fn d%40%5fg%26a2%3au%402


St. Helen's is my backyard. I've been up there quite a few times this past Summer for weekend backpacking trips. I'm not *too* worried about it, as there is a fairly large reservoir between the mountain and me. But I am a tad concerned.

If the volcano was to do anything, we'd definitely see ash here. The last time it erupted, it dumped ash all over the area and really screwed up people's cars. Not sure what the body count was back then...

[Taco John]

here is the image I tried to link...

[KCWolfman]

Yeah... Sorta...

I live in Vancouver, WA, which is just across the river and serves as a bedroom community to Portland... a tax shelter from the People's Republic of Oregon.

I live about an hour an 15 minutes away from Mt. St Helens:



St. Helen's is my backyard. I've been up there quite a few times this past Summer for weekend backpacking trips. I'm not *too* worried about it, as there is a fairly large reservoir between the mountain and me. But I am a tad concerned.

If the volcano was to do anything, we'd definitely see ash here. The last time it erupted, it dumped ash all over the area and really screwed up people's cars. Not sure what the body count was back then...
More than 60 IIRC

[Taco John]

Here we go...

[Slayer Diablo]

I'd be more concerned with Mt. Rainier...damn thing's been sleeping for so long, that when it goes off, it's gonna be one hell of an explosion...and we all know what three cities are going to be wiped out. Mount St. Helens, OTOH, is nothing to be too concerned about. It has its major hissy fit once every century with a couple minor explosions in between...that's what the books (copywrites were around 1995, IIRC) said whenever I did reports on it.

[Ultra Peanut]

Thank you, Little Vulcanologist Person.

[teedubya]

pyrocastic flow aint got nothing on my girls mentrual flow.

You dont want to be anywhere near Mt Saint Mywife during that time o' month

[tk13]

http://seattletimes.nwsource.com/html/localnews/2002049113_sthelens29m.html

Mount St. Helens quakes almost continuous

By Sandi Doughton
Seattle Times staff reporter

The seismograph printouts at the University of Washington show how much things have changed at Mount St. Helens in the space of a few days.

Early last week, the pages were blank, except for an occasional, tiny blip. Yesterday, they were almost solid black, each dark scrawl representing another small earthquake from beneath the volcano.

"It's continuous," said UW seismologist Steve Malone. "We know there's a lot of rock breaking, and sooner or later something's got to give."

When it does, the result could be small explosions or eruptions, possibly accompanied by an outpouring of lava onto the 925-foot dome that has built up in the crater since the volcano's massive eruption in 1980, scientists say. But the fact that volcanic gases are not escaping from the mountain in high levels means that fresh magma has not been welling up from deep underground, said Willie Scott, a volcanologist at the U.S. Geological Survey's Cascades Volcano Observatory in Vancouver, Wash. And in the absence of new magma, any eruption will not be major.

"That makes us think we're not in a situation where, imminently, we could have a large, sustained, explosive eruption," Scott said.

Field crews spent the day yesterday placing instruments around the volcano to detect any bulging that would be expected if magma does begin to move upward. Preliminary readings should be available today, Scott said. Some of the instruments will deliver continuous, real-time data from fixed stations, while others will be moved around from place to place, to collect information over as many points as possible.

As recently as last month, instruments already deployed around the volcano showed no evidence of any bulging, Scott said. In the two months before the May 18, 1980, eruption, the mountain's northern flank bulged outward more than 200 feet.

Convinced the volcano was already going off yesterday, many people around the region called the volcano observatory to report what they thought were eruption plumes. What they really saw were wisps of clouds or dust from rockfalls in the crater, Scott said.

State and regional emergency planners participated in a conference call with scientists yesterday to get an update on the volcano's status and review the emergency-response plan written after the 1980 eruption killed 57 people, destroyed 200 homes and unleashed the biggest landslide in recorded history.

Although the plan has been updated in recent years, some of those on the conference call couldn't remember where their copies were, Malone said.

"It's been awhile," he laughed.

Scientists say any hazards from a small explosion, eruption or mudflow would be confined to the mountain's unpopulated flanks.

However, it's likely the mountain also will throw up an ash plume, which could kill the engines of any aircraft flying in the area, Scott said. If a plume occurs, the volcano observatory would notify the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration and the Federal Aviation Administration, which would reroute air traffic away from the drifting plume.

Mount St. Helens has rumbled several times since 1980, with thick, pasty magma pouring out and creating the lava dome that now sits inside the lopsided crater. The last lava outpouring was in 1986.


http://seattletimes.nwsource.com/ABPub/2004/09/28/2002048914.jpg
HARLEY SOLTES / THE SEATTLE TIMES
In the top graph, University of Washington seismographs show swarms of earthquakes shaking Mount St. Helens. The chart below it graphs the quieter readings from Mt. Rainier.

[Ultra Peanut]

It's a diversionary tactic. Just ask LVP.

[vckcchiefs04]

slam a cork on that big biotch!! :thumb:

[Phobia]

I'd be more concerned with Mt. Rainier...damn thing's been sleeping for so long, that when it goes off, it's gonna be one hell of an explosion...and we all know what three cities are going to be wiped out. Mount St. Helens, OTOH, is nothing to be too concerned about. It has its major hissy fit once every century with a couple minor explosions in between...that's what the books (copywrites were around 1995, IIRC) said whenever I did reports on it.

Dude, we HAVE to get you out to MSH immediately. We're going to lower you into the crater to get some readings. If you wanna, feel free to bring your decade old books for reference. You may wish to bring a change of drawers, too. You'll be filling yours regularly.

[Alton deFlat]

Lets see! Mt. St. Helens getting pissed off again..... a 6.0 quake in California. Hang on Big Daddy, TJ, and Joe Seahawk, just in case.

[Boyceofsummer]

I know this isn't the place to really post this, but this came to mind---

Liquid hot MAG----MA

-EB-...unless you pay us---one MILLION dollars!!!