Is this the beginning of the end of Priest?

[siberian khatru]

I fear that we're headed for a 6-10 type season (or worse),and the only way to be competitive in all those games is to lean heavily on Priest. In other words, Priest is gonna take an unholy beating for virtually nothing. How demoralizing can that be?

How much will Priest have left in the tank for 2005? Will he return for a rebuilding year? He's given his all for us, but after 4 years of busting his butt, and getting only one trip to the postseason, I wonder if he'll call it a career.

[Rain Man]

2,300 yards will keep his spirits up.

[siberian khatru]

2,300 yards will keep his spirits up.

Nah, that would be a high note to go out on. Jim Brown-style. ;)

[BigRedChief]

At Baltimore, Jacksonville home against the Falcons and Colts. 2 of the surprise teams this year and one of the best in the game. It's not looking good. We have wasted the best running back we have ever had in a Chiefs uniform. Can I get a Dammit Carl! :cuss:

[TEX]

I fear that we're headed for a 6-10 type season (or worse),and the only way to be competitive in all those games is to lean heavily on Priest. In other words, Priest is gonna take an unholy beating for virtually nothing. How demoralizing can that be?

How much will Priest have left in the tank for 2005? Will he return for a rebuilding year? He's given his all for us, but after 4 years of busting his butt, and getting only one trip to the postseason, I wonder if he'll call it a career.


'05 will not be a rebuilding year but they will have to add players. That's exactly what's wrong with not upgrading personnel when you have the room - it makes you have to go out and get many players instead of a few.

[BigRedChief]

you also have to wonder if he feels we have a chance. Ecerybody lambasted Montanta for not coming back for one more season. Well we sucked with Bono in there. We will suck with Blaylocl/LJ in there. Priest is the fuel that fires this team.

[Frazod]

I think we're witnessing the end of the Chiefs as we know them. It is pretty undeniable that the window of opportunity closed last year, and time, age, coaching ignorance and hidden weaknesses have all caught up to us.

Gun got here a year too late. Last year was now or never for this crew. :shake:

I look for large scale changes next year, and a couple (hopefully ONLY a couple) of years of rebuilding.

[Rain Man]

I guess the other issue with Priest is that he worked darn hard to get to this point. If he was the type to let a lack of playoff success get to him, he would've retired in college with the knee injury, or in rookie camp when he was undrafted, or his first couple of years when he got no carries, or that year in Baltimore when he got benched after a 1,000 yard season. Far from being disconsolate about the past few years in KC, he should be recognizing that he's at the height of his glory years, and more motivated than ever to keep going.

[siberian khatru]

Last year was now or never for this crew. :shake:


That's how I look at it too. I wonder if Gun could've made a difference last year or not ... although he might've been able to force ONE PUNT against Indy.

This franchise has just squandered so many opportunities the last 15 years. 1995 ... 1997 ... 2003. The Montana-led 93 season was Carl's high-water mark. Freakin 11 years ago. ELEVEN. We've had TWO winning seasons since 1998. Now this implosion. People make fun of the Bills for losing 4 Super Bowls, but the Chiefs under Carl are a bigger joke.

[TEX]

you also have to wonder if he feels we have a chance. Ecerybody lambasted Montanta for not coming back for one more season. Well we sucked with Bono in there. We will suck with Blaylocl/LJ in there. Priest is the fuel that fires this team.

Actually we went 13-3 with Bono...

[Frazod]

That's how I look at it too. I wonder if Gun could've made a difference last year or not ... although he might've been able to force ONE PUNT against Indy.

This franchise has just squandered so many opportunities the last 15 years. 1995 ... 1997 ... 2003. The Montana-led 93 season was Carl's high-water mark. Freakin 11 years ago. ELEVEN. We've had TWO winning seasons since 1998. Now this implosion. People make fun of the Bills for losing 4 Super Bowls, but the Chiefs under Carl are a bigger joke.

Yeah, but the Bills were a SPECTACULAR failure. We're just a low key failure. :D

[Straight, No Chaser]

I guess the other issue with Priest is that he worked darn hard to get to this point. If he was the type to let a lack of playoff success get to him, he would've retired in college with the knee injury, or in rookie camp when he was undrafted, or his first couple of years when he got no carries, or that year in Baltimore when he got benched after a 1,000 yard season. Far from being disconsolate about the past few years in KC, he should be recognizing that he's at the height of his glory years, and more motivated than ever to keep going.

TRUE.
Arguably, Barry Sanders had it far worse than Priest's current situation. Barry finally walked. If you listen to some of Priest's interviews, it's hard to tell if he's speaking in tongues or trying to send cryptic messages.



---->

[Rain Man]

TRUE.
Arguably, Barry Sanders had it far worse than Priest's current situation. Barry finally walked. If you listen to some of Priest's interviews, it's hard to tell if he's speaking in tongues or trying to send cryptic messages.



---->

And Payton, too. How many years did Payton run for abysmal teams before he finally got that ring?

[cdcox]

Here is an analysis of this question that I posted during the off season:

Priest turned 30 this year. I was curious as to how much of their total career productivity other premier running backs had achieved by the end of the year they turned 30. Here is what I found:

John Riggens: 60%
Marcus Allen: 65%
Emmitt Smith: 80%
Walter Payton: 80%
Eric Dickerson: 85%
Thurman Thomas: 89%
Christian Okoye: 91%

Priest is kind of unique because he got a late start and did not take the beating in his early years that some of the others did. Christian Okoye also got a late start, which is why I included him in the analysis, but he only played one additional year after turning 30. Marcus Allen was also a similar situration since he was rested a numnber of years in Oakland. However he never had the kind of year that we have come to depend on from Priest after he came to KC. Can anyone else think of any additional running backs that got a late start and were productive for a number of years?

Now, while it is pure speculation to guess where Priest may fall on this scale, based on the above we can look at senarios between 60% and 90%. The following shows the # of rushing yards he has left in his career for each of these percentages:

60% 4461
65% 3603
70% 2868
75% 2230
80% 1673
85% 1180
90% 743

Now if he has only used up 60% of his yards, it is clear he has 3 or 4 very productive seasons left. However even if he has only used up 70% of his yards -better than most of the backs I looked at - he only has 2868 yards left, which could easily translate into one good year and 2 yrs of slow fade. And if he is up at 80%, we may be lucky to get one more good season from him.

I hope we get two more solid years from him, but it is really hard to guess. Each of the backs I listed (except Marcus Allen) had 1000+ yrd seasons the year they turned 30. So the fact that Priest was great last year doen't shead any light on what percentage of his productivity has been used up.

[BigRedChief]

Actually we went 13-3 with Bono...

I was talking playoffs, Super Bowl. It's a given under King Carl that we will not have many 6-10 seasons but he can't seem to get us the horses to win the big race. I'm not interested in the samll potatoes. I want the Big Kahuna. :thumb: