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-   -   Chiefs Mega Millions at $1.1 BILLION (https://chiefsplanet.com/BB/showthread.php?t=344610)

dlphg9 07-29-2022 08:16 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by El Lobo Gordo (Post 16387806)
Only if there is no tie. If there are 700 winners they each get a million. You should actually pick a series of sequential numbers that other people are unlikely to pick.

22 23 24 25 26 and mega ball 21

That has just as much chance as winning as any other combination but it is unlikely someone else is going to purposely pick it. The best strategy is to try to minimize the chance of ties.
When has there ever been 700 winners in a mega millions?

The odds of you having to share with another person that also picked the same numbers is really low. Mega Millions started in 2002. In 20 years of Mega Millions existence there has been 202 jackpots won and 227 winning tickets. Only 20 shared jackpots in 20 years.

TLO 07-29-2022 09:10 PM
I didn't win. :(

El Lobo Gordo 07-29-2022 09:17 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by dlphg9 (Post 16387867)
When has there ever been 700 winners in a mega millions?

The odds of you having to share with another person that also picked the same numbers is really low. Mega Millions started in 2002. In 20 years of Mega Millions existence there has been 202 jackpots won and 227 winning tickets. Only 20 shared jackpots in 20 years.
Ticket sales grow super linearly with the size of the jackpots. The more tickets sold the more likely a tie. What is average size of the jackpot that is shared? I bet it is considerably more than the average jackpot.

El Lobo Gordo 07-29-2022 09:18 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by dlphg9 (Post 16387867)
When has there ever been 700 winners in a mega millions?

The odds of you having to share with another person that also picked the same numbers is really low. Mega Millions started in 2002. In 20 years of Mega Millions existence there has been 202 jackpots won and 227 winning tickets. Only 20 shared jackpots in 20 years.
Ticket sales grow super linearly with the size of the jackpots. The more tickets sold the more likely a tie. What is average size of the jackpot that is shared? I bet it is considerably more than the average jackpot won.

Hog's Gone Fishin 07-29-2022 09:20 PM
13-36-45-57-67 ----14

backinblack 07-29-2022 09:29 PM
holy shit I won

scho63 07-29-2022 09:38 PM
Sorry everyone, no hookers or blow.

TripleThreat 07-29-2022 09:50 PM
Does anyone else ever think wow if only I could know these numbers 3 hours ago I’d be a billionaire. Time is just such a funny thing

TripleThreat 07-29-2022 09:51 PM
Does anyone else ever think wow if only I could know these numbers 3 hours ago I’d be a billionaire. Time is just such a funny thing

Bwana 07-30-2022 06:32 AM
One winner in Illinois.

Hopeful Frazod won it. I can see it now, the first two things on his list, a shit load of new guns and a kevlar fridge. :evil:

tyecopeland 07-30-2022 06:56 AM
If you won the match 5 (as many did last night), are you more excited about winning a million dollars or more pissed at missing the Mega ball and missing out on a billion?

stevieray 07-30-2022 06:57 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by Bwana (Post 16388121)
One winner in Illinois.
:
Prolly blow through it in seven years, according to past lottery winners.

Hog's Gone Fishin 07-30-2022 07:08 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by Bwana (Post 16388121)
One winner in Illinois.

Hopeful Frazod won it. I can see it now, the first two things on his list, a shit load of new guns and a kevlar fridge. :evil:
Can you find the guys phone number so we can call him and offer congratulations

Bwana 07-30-2022 07:10 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by Hog's Gone Fishin (Post 16388143)
Can you find the guys phone number so we can call him and offer congratulations

I'm sure we would have to get in the back of the line, behind all the long lost relatives, that are now coming out of the woodwork.

DaFace 07-30-2022 07:30 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by El Lobo Gordo (Post 16387796)
You could argue that the larger the jackpot the less of a bad bet it becomes. I'm not sure this is the case though. Even at 1.2 billion I doubt it is a bet that is one with a positive expected value for the player. Ticket sales go up super linearly with the jackpot size. While an increase in the size of the jackpot adds to a players expected value the more likelihood of ties occurring subtract from it. Lotteries like this are not easy solved gambling problems.



I bought some tickets today. I am almost certain it is still a bad bet.
Expected value calculations lose their meaning when you're talking about a 1 in 300 million chance.


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