Yeah, you don't watch a lot of football do you? 2019 MVP with an ENTIRELY different, almost triple option scheme and different OC. 2023 MVP with a new OC and entirely new scheme. But thanks for flagging one of the tired narratives I left out in a previous post - I omitted "scheme/system quarterback."

It's wild that I can come on here and admit Patrick Mahomes is great - he truly is, while also saying I think our soon-to-be 2-time MVP is, you know, maybe, ALSO GOOD. The level of hate Lamar gets from opposing fans is mind boggling.

I think you continue to see that because... well, when you watch him... he still doesn't consistently get zip or accuracy on throws outside the numbers in the short and intermediate areas. And when you make him move, his accuracy still gets inconsistent.

They've put much better weapons around him and a better scheme, and he has been even more effective.

He's really talented, so it's hard to slow him down and force him to do the things he's not as good at doing. You have to have the personnel and scheme and discipline to make it work.

Super, super hard to do with what they've put around him and the way Monken has set up the offense.

Wow what a great and original thought! Yes, just cover the other touchdowns and yards with your hand when you look at box scores that does make life simpler.

Welcome and glad that you are here.

Genuinely curious as to your thoughts regarding how Baltimore will play KC. I personally think that they are so confident that they will line up and play the way the have all year without making adjustments for KC. Thoughts on that? Or do you think they try to mix it up some to throw KC off.

The only time Mahomes has ever choker in the playoffs is vs the Bengals in 2022 in the 2nd half. He either had a concussion or Eric Bienemy yelled at him at halftime putting him into a downward spiral. Neither are an issue this year at this time.

If you ask me we won vs Brady in Mahomes first year. Yes Ford was offsides but I can show you about 90 times this year Chris Jones has been offsides and hes probably been called for it twice. It is such an unlikely call. Unlucky if you will. Almost like Tom Brady told the ref to call it in a pivotal point even though it had not be an issue the entire game up to it.

Mahomes is not losing this game. The only people that can **** it up is Toney, Skyy or MVS.

Lamar is great. You can’t really stop him, just hope to slow him down in some way. I did not like what I saw from KC’s defense in the first 3 quarters against Buffalo. They were getting killed in the run game. They will need to play a lot better in this Baltimore game if they hope to win.

Last week was the week to get 'em.

We've learned from our mistakes. Hardman won't get a chance to repeat that shit.

I think the whole team - but especially the defense - is incredibly confident right now. And honestly, they should be. They've played incredible football.

To your question, I'm honestly not sure, but I think generally the same. I think we'll continue not to blitz often - as that's where PM can really beat you. I think we try to get pressure with our DL as we have all year and double Kelce as much as makes sense. Although I do think we'll use Kyle Hamilton to match up with him.

What do you call a mediocre (at best) passer and an elite runner?

A glorified RB.

Yeah, I seriously doubt anyone denies he's a great playmaker and racks up yards... but to pretend he's a great passer or on par with the all around abilities of say Josh Allen is simply being dishonest.

And Allen needed Daboll and they've tried to fix the turnover issues.... and Jackson needs quite a bit more than that to hide the fact he's not at all a good passer.

Of 71 qualifying QB's on NFL penalties website, Brady is 57th out of 71 in roughing the passer calls. He got 36 of them for his entire career.

Roughing calls per 100 passes
Brady .36.
Mahomes .55
L Jackson .572

So both Mahomes and Jackson have gotten a little over .50% more which seems reasonable when you adjust for Mahomes and Jackson not playing in earlier era where roughing the passer wasn't called as often. Brady really played in around 3 eras of football. The first was very similar to the 90's when QBs didn't get special treatment compared to today.

Payton Manning got the least but he retired before the NFL starting really protecting players even more. Even Manning started his career 5 years later and played as long as Brady, he would have gotten a lot more calls. And Colts usually invested in their offensive line more than the Patriots. Patriots invested in defense and just expected Brady to process quickly and make the best out of the situation.

The most per 100 passes was RG3 at more than 1.2 per 100 passes which is over 3 times as many per 100 plays as Brady. He had a bad offensive line during his short career and refs most of felt sorry for him but the NFL may have been trying to protect him when he was being beaten to death.

Why is it that you cannot accept what/who your QB is. I acknowledged his talent. I am not going to lie to myself about how he ranks as a passer. As a runner he is at the top of the league for QBs. As a passer he is just middle of the pack at best. His QBR is inflated by (this will be a surprise to no one) his running!

No one is saying Lamar isn't good and what did I say that was hate? Facts?

I guess no one willing to give Lamar a ridiculous contract except the Ravens was just Lamar hate. How many teams would be offering Mahomes a contract if the Chiefs played the same contract game that the Ravens did with Lamar?

That offense is about as tough as it gets to defend... you always have to respect the passing game by not getting sucked into the run game, and they were using all 50 yards horizontally. At some point you're saying watch the flats, watch the quick passes over the middle of the field, but be ready for the run, and be ready for Allen to take off at any time, and be ready for Allen to play hero ball.... it's a lot.

And their biggest issue wasn't so much between the 20s as it was letting Allen loose on 3rd downs and the bend-don't-break breaking a fee times.

I assume this weekend, Spags will dare Lamar to beat them through the air... I think the game slows down for them some this week.

The league has changed the last 10 years... Shoot a rule was changed when Brady got hit below the waist...

When he gets the calls matters, kinda like in the AFCCG when he got one when he was hit in the shoulder.

Not really accurate. No team was willing to part with 2 first round picks AND give him a fully guaranteed contract. It’s not so easy as saying it was a free market and no one had any interest in him.

Lamar is super dynamic and a better pocket passer than the majority here give him credit for. He can get or be gotten though, and we just need Spags to gum up the gears.

I think Andy & Spags will do everything possible to get a stronger performance in run defense. I think it’s important to get a lead on Baltimore instead of trying to chase them for a huge chunk of the game. Force some punts early and get a lead.

Fair enough. Hamilton on Kelce will be interesting. From a Ravens fan perspective, what areas are you all are discussing that you see as a weakness for KC? What about areas of concern? I mean like honest assessments and not "Ravens will smash them because we are the bestest" opinions of sports radio.

Good news everyone, Jason McIntyre thinks the Chiefs are gonna lose 37-16 Sunday.

Absorb the 1st half surge and I like KCs chances. The defense improves dramatically in the second half.

Can someone dispute this for me? Yards per play and PFF grade of our ball catchers vs zone and man.

https://i.ibb.co/HVcHx3P/20240123-140938.jpg

Baltimore plays alot of man and they are good at it.

Who?

I think it's Reba's husband.

Agreed. and on your second point, Lamar doesn't worry me as much as the Ravens defense. The Ravens defense has allowed more yards per game than the Chiefs but also allowed less touchdowns to be scored.

I'm looking forward to seeing if Lamar will perform as a pocket passer against a strong secondary. I already know that he can run, that is a given.

The Chiefs run D did not look great on Sunday, especially in the first half, but a number of experts are saying that Spags did this deliberately to take away Allen's ability to throw against our secondary. Will be interesting to see if we have a similar game plan on Sunday.

It was blatantly obvious.

Reid and Spags probably had a long talk about how they were going to ****ing roast Buffalo's defense.

They played complementary football. Make the Bills go on long drives and dare Josh to make a mistake. Game over.

It worked.

That was by Spags design. Buffalo didn't have a play over 20 yards. He knew we were moving the ball on the Bills and we could exchange Bills FG for Chiefs TDs. It took two incredible throws and catches on 3rd down on 2 Bills drives to get TDs. Spags then clamped down harder later in the 2nd half and Allen didn't deliver. Spags will be ready on Sunday. Will it be enough? Not sure, but we don't go away easily.

The Lamar hate has gone too far, said as someone who was as big a doubter as any when he was coming out.

But this MVP is completely whack and it's a damn shame it just goes to the "most deserving QB". His season is a joke compared to other MVPs, including his first.

LOL

I'm going into this game with no expectations but hoping for the best. A little Mahomes Magic never hurts.

This!

I'm sure they let the flow of the game dictate it to a large extent... defenses WANT you to spend 8 minutes driving down the field, converting 3rd downs, because not many offenses can do it.

The defense last weekend really only got into trouble on the 2nd and 3rd drives of the game, when every first down play was resulting in 2nd and 2 or another first down.

It's tough to execute a one dimensional offense (at least when you don't have Patrick Mahomes), and I think Spags is fine if the one dimension is on the ground and not giving up huge chunks and 3rd downs.

Patrick might need to use his legs more often. That has been a very effective way to beat teams who lock down the receivers in man coverage.

Same here, we have our work cut out for us. But Oh What a Win Would Do To The Flying Rat fans!

His First was unanimous so it can't be compared, His stats are better then 08 manning where he won the mvp, also who else were they going to give it to? it's not just based off stats, but no mvp had 20+ turnovers like allen, nor had a below .500 record against winning teams like dak.

He drops his passer icons a little quicker than most.

That's the biggest problem with Jackson. And he doesn't have a hose to fit the ball into tight windows but their offense isn't really designed around that (it's designed to avoid tight windows by virtue of teams having to respect his legs).

But if you can get that pocket collapsing, he'll bring his eyes down a little sooner and start looking for an escape plan sooner than a lot of QBs. And because he's so dynamic, it can even get him in a little trouble as a runner when he's not decisive. He'll look to break into the open field as opposed to Allen who will just plow ahead and take what's there.

Gonna need a couple 'sacks' where he gets himself going sideways as he's looking to find a running lane. Probably not going to get an int since he tends to tuck when the play's getting ugly but if we could force a ball out that would be nice as well.

Defense may have to rely on bend but don't break, offense will have to get into the end zone 3 times. Gonna take 27+ to win this one, IMO.

But ultimately if Patrick plays like he's played the last couple weeks, I think they'll manage that.

That's his point - you're talking about QBs only.

I'd argue CMC and even Tyreek were better candidates than any QB this year.

And to be completely honest, my MVP would probably be Myles Garrett. For the Browns go to 11-6 with the issues they had at QB while ALSO losing their star RB is remarkable. They beat Baltimore at Baltimore with Deshaun Watson doing everything in his power to lose it for them.

You have a RB that went for 2,000 all purpose yards, a WR that very easily could've and a DE that dragged his team to relevance. Any of those three are worthy candidates and in a year where there's no clear standout season at the QB position, it's a very good time to have thrown the REST of the league a bone...

It’s true. ESPN QBR accounts for rushing ability. Lamar was 83/100 for his 2019 MVP. He’s around 65/100 QBR in 2023 season. The lowest QBR for a MVP recently was Cam Newton at 61/100 QBR in 2015, so I guess that’s similar to Lamar this season. Usually the MVP is above 75/100 QBR. Maybe they should have given the MVP to Tyreek Hill or TJ Watt. The Steelers lose 90% of their games when Watt is out with injury. That’s absurd.

MVP QBR grades the last 10 years:

2014 Aaron Rodgers 78/100 QBR
2015 Cam Newton 61/100 QBR
2016 Matt Ryan 80/100 QBR
2017 Tom Brady 71/100 QBR
2018 Patrick Mahomes 80/100 QBR
2019 Lamar Jackson 83/100 QBR
2020 Aaron Rodgers 80/100 QBR
2021 Aaron Rodgers 74/100 QBR
2022 Patrick Mahomes 79/100 QBR
2023 Lamar Jackson 65/100 QBR

So I came across this..

On one of their podcasts I remember Jason and Travis calling the MVP award "Most Valuable Passer" and they are pretty accurate on it. It would take a skill position breaking an all time record to garner any serious consideration at this point, and even then it would not be a guarantee.

Since 2000, there have been 4 league MVPs that were not QBs. 2012 was the last year a non QB won it.

I think the biggest issue with a CMC vote is that yes, an injury to CMC would cripple them - so does an injury to ANYONE on that team it seems.

The whole damn offense appears to be a house of cards. When it's working, they all eat. But it seems to take all hands on deck for any of them to excel.

McCafrey should have won MVP. It's hard to imagine a RB having a better season in today's NFL. Tyreek was tracking the same for WR until his injury. It shouldn't necessarily be a QB every season. This season is a good example of that.

Also, I don't think Lamar was even the best QB in the league. Prescott had 12 more TD passes and threw only 2 more INTs than Lamar on 133 more attempts. Lamar had better rushing numbers but worse passing numbers. I'd give Prescott first team All-NFL this year at QB and McCafrey as MVP.

Lamar had the most passing yards against winning teams, 2nd most rushing yards against winning teams (1st is cmc), dak was below .500 against winning teams that won't give you mvp, and it's most valuable his two best running backs go down, and his best target and he still delivered, cmc could've won but lamar was the best player on the field when they faced the 49ers.

IDK if anyone else noticed this but immediately after the 49ers won their game, the promo said "CMC has lead his team to the NFC Championship, watch it live on blah blah"

I thought it was funny

Maybe try that again in a "per game" format? :spock:

Even in the case of QB’s, I think CJ Stroud has a very strong argument in 2023. The Texans were bad enough in 2022 to have the #2 overall draft pick. Baltimore was good enough to make the Playoffs even with Lamar missing a bunch of games. Houston suddenly turns into a Playoff team and even wins a Playoff game in dominant fashion despite having 2 of their best receivers missing with injury. Stroud was an absolute game-changer for Houston this season.

I've been asking this forever. And who picks the crews? Is it 100% on Goodell's whim? Is it supposedly performance-based then random? (IE - which conference championship game gets which refs should be random). I've never seen an answer to this question anywhere.

Correct he did and you make a great argument. Hard to beat out the QB of the best team record wise in the NFL.

It's fair to point out that he also got a last place schedule.

Granted, he still made a massive difference for those guys, but a statistical argument at least has to be viewed through that lens. He played in a poor division and with a last place schedule for the rest of the numbers he put up.

I think he deserves some down ballot consideration for sure - but i don't think he should win it.

There are several articles googling "how does the NFL pick playoff refs", all saying the same basic stuff.. it's in the contract between the NFL and refs association, the general process and how it's performance based on calla missed throughout the season... and they lump refs into buckets of WC and the beyond, or no playoffs at all.

I've seen some info on how they do wait for match ups first, but no details on why... maybe they prefer if refs have reffed teams recently or have other parameters.

Same. Hard telling how this will shake out.

Traditionally, the way to beat Baltimore is to get off to big lead and force Jackson to be an actual quarterback, and watch him crumple like an empty beer can.

But that getting off to a big lead bit is easier said than done.

At least they don't have Brad Allen's blind ass out there. Couldn't see a blatant PI if it bit him on the dick.

"other parameters" could be doing a lot of heavy lifting here

This is cherry picking too much.

I don't know how many yards Mahomes had against winning teams last season versus non winning teams (I'm assuming that's teams over .500). I also don't care. The numbers over 17 games are enough. There's too much parity in the NFL to discount some opponents any given week

I don't think they've been the focal point of any playoff game so far and haven't done shit from previous years like start calling everything in the 4th quarter after letting them play for the first 3.. so, whatever they did this year, it's working.

Saw Nick Wright arguing (as is his profession) that the Chiefs should be the favorites on Sunday.

Does anyone believe that?

Baltimore, at home, with their record and with a team that's performed at/near the same level we have both offensively and defensively. They even have a very experienced HC and good STs unit.

That's a really good football team.

So am I alone in thinking they SHOULD be favorites? I mean even if they're 60% to win, they'd still be 40% to lose - that's by no means zero.

This has to be the most stress free I've ever felt going into a Chiefs playoff game.

I never in a million years expected us to get this far after debacles like the Raiders game and the offense being a mess all season.

I'm truly just happy to be here this season.

If we lose, well we probably overachieved anyway, and unlike Bills fans I really don't have anything against Ravens fans or Lamar.

If we win though, it'll be an amazing chapter in the legend of Mahomes, dragging this jumbled mess of a roster to another Super Bowl.

Just feels like we're playing with total house money at this point.

Baltimore -3 / 3.5 feels about right...

All the pressure is on Lamar to win this. If the Chiefs lose, we can be somewhat happy that in a down season the Chiefs still ended up in the AFCCG.

I'd have said Baltimore -4 at home.

I won't give them the full 3 points for HFA (I don't think it matters as much with a veteran, experienced QB on the other side) but I'll give them 2 points on a neutral field, 2 more for HFA.

Baltimore only giving 3 seems like a bet worth making. Or you take the Chiefs and the money line.

I agree. The Chiefs just played a Bills team that was banged up and the line was Bills -3. My initial guess was that against a team that appears to be as "complete" as the Ravens, the line would be Ravens -4.5. But then again the Chiefs are coming off a road win where they were the underdogs, and I think the fear of Mahomes is coming back to the general public.

Having two rings already takes so much of the pressure off.

It's a weird feeling. In a way, it'll never truly be as fun as it was before. The euphoria I felt after winning that first AFC title will never be matched.

But it is easier on my blood pressure and makes the games more "enjoyable" in the sense that I know that if we lose, I don't have to stew over the idea that we're never going to see them win the big one.

Baltimore guy, tell me how often your receivers line up where, do you have a true “slot”

Mahomes and Reid are the new Brady and Belichick.

How many times did the Patriots play a team in the postseason that was more complete on paper but they pulled it out anyway because they had such significant advantages at Head Coach and Quarterback?

The line is a direct result of the respect bettors are giving that combination.

None will ever be as good as LIV, but I still feel like we are chasing something, ghosts you could say in Brady, Belichick, Montana. Mahomes has made that possible.

Now, when Mahomes goes… THAT is when I think I’ll feel completely free from expectations and frustration.

It’s basically a pick em game if you factor in the home team being a 3 point favorite by default.

I know everyone says "he's chasing Brady" but man, I'm just not.

I'm chasing Montana. Brady/Belichick was so damn unique and lasted for so long. Mahomes isn't going to get 20 years with Reid. And in passing leagues with penalties now being so critical in the outcomes, results are more random than ever.

I just don't see 7 as a reasonable target. 5 to beat Montana - I'm in. But man, it took so much for 7 to happen for Brady, including cherry picking to get that 7th (and getting the refs in his pocket in the process). Hell, it took rank stupidity by Kyle Shanahan to get Brady his 6th.

Then again, it took a little stupidity by Shanahan to get Mahomes his 1st.

It's just soooooo haaaaaard to keep a good roster when you have a guy making Mahomes money on your cap. Brady's billionaire wife (and under the table arrangements with Kraft) were worth a great player every season for their roster because he was never being paid what he could've earned. He wasn't typically close.

Mahomes should win 4. I think that's a reasonable expectation at this point in his career. But **** fellas, 7 is a LOT. Blows my mind that he managed that while going 10 seasons between 3 and 4.

Which is why I think the line's a little low.

I just don't think it should be. Based on resumes (and partially on rosters), there aren't many reasons to take the Chiefs over Baltimore.

The only reason would be Mahomes over Jackson and their styles are just so uniquely suited for their teams that I'm not sure that's lever worth pulling.

Agreed. If not for Andy/Mahomes, the betting line would be at least 7 points for Baltimore.

That's my sentiments.

What’s confusing to me that it’s the same line as we had against Buffalo.

I put our odds of winning that game at 75% whereas I’m only 40% in this one.

I guess we beat the Bills and Vegas concluded that we’re the old Chiefs again.

I think they should be the favorites. Right after the Bills game ended, I even said to my wife that I was expecting it to be Ravens -6 or so, so -3 is even better than I would have guessed.

I think for me, the biggest difference is just that ALL of the pressure is on the Ravens (and Ravens fans). If we lose, so what? We've been to 6 AFCCGs in a row, been to 3 Super Bowls, and won 2 of them. I don't see any strong reason to believe that we won't be right in the mix again next year. So while it would be great to win, it's not gonna ruin my month or anything if they don't.

So in the end, it's more LIKELY that the Ravens will win in theory - sure. But if you had told me a month ago that we would have a 40% chance (in theory) to go to another Super Bowl, I would have been thrilled with that. And then add on the fact that Mahomes, Reid, and Spags seem to have an uncanny ability to pull things out of their asses when we need it the most, and I'm pretty damn optimistic.

I think that's exactly where I am.

I was very confident going into the buffalo game. Probably 2 to 1 to win (so not quite your 75%). And I'd say it's more likely than not that we lose to Baltimore so that 40% works.

So maybe it says that Vegas just REALLY missed on the Buffalo line (is that where it opened or where it ended?) rather than that they're missing badly on Baltimore. I mean the Vegas moneyline is +162 for the Chiefs. That's a 38.2% chance of winning when converted to probability.

So Vegas doesn't actually disagree with our 40% figure. So maybe we shouldn't be disagreeing with their 3 point line...

With the Chiefs and their struggles this year, I expected the opening line to be -4.5 to -6.5 for the Ravens. Vegas has more data and we are basically slightly worse than a coinflip on a neutral field. What's even more interesting, looking at prop bets, all of the Ravens defensive front are well into the +100 odds for will they have a sack. Both Karlaftis and Jones are -109 to -156. The Ravens lead the league in sacks, but Vegas odds say they don't think they will get to Mahomes. Not saying they won't, just pointing out that I found that very interesting.

Baltimore should be the favorite. Hard to justify why KC being the favorites.

Baltimore has an elite defense, they had the best record in football this year, beat a lot of very good teams, is at home, has a very good offense, has the soon to be league MVP and just dominated their first playoff opponent (who embarrassed the Browns a week prior).

The fact that they are only like 3 to 3.5 point favorites speaks a ton about what Vegas thinks of KC. In this respect I think Wright is incorrect.

I'm sure I could come close to what Wright would say...

• Playoff Mahomes vs playoff Lamar
• 6th AFCCG in a row
• Chiefs have been playing playoff games 3 of the past 4 weeks, Ravens took a couple weeks off and scrimmaged with the Texans last week
• Chiefs just took out Josh Allen and logged their first road playoff victory while being pelted with snowballs, so no questions this week about being on the road
• All the pressure is on the Ravens; not just for some damn respect and to get that monkey off their back of beating a worthy playoff opponent, but if they can't win with THIS team, in a year where they only have to face one of Mahomes/Allen/Burrow, and Stroud won't always be a rookie on an otherwise 4-win team.... when will they ever win one?

(guess I should go listen to it now)

...not that I particularly believe all that should be taken into account in Vegas odds, and I think the current line is fine.

They played a lot of "good" teams... a lot of playoff contenders. Super Bowl contenders... split with the Bengals and won the game where Burrow got hurt. Dismantled the 49ers.

Chiefs, OTOH, were 1-4 against playoff teams in the regular season, even if games were all close and very winnable... and given the Phins were paper champions, really all they're propped up by is the win against the Bills last week. A great win, but does it wipe out the fact the Ravens didn't really have a huge soft spot in their schedule this season?

Hell, after the Chiefs/Lions game, shit got sooooft for a while, like 6 weeks of preseason scrimmage soft.

I think it's fine... -3 at home isn't exactly saying they're the bonafide playoff-proven favorite, seems like they're getting the nod because it's at home and they were far more consistent against a tougher schedule this year.

This is why I think KC can go into the game much looser. They have two rings, so the pressure to finally win it is not there. Plus they can play the underdog "hunter" vs the favorite "hunted".

Let me clarify - I’m not someone who thinks Mahomes has to win 7 to “catch” Brady as GOAT. Hell, I saw Mad Dog Russo saying today that he’s already the best he’s ever seen.

I think if he does touch 5, by then, it’ll be pretty unanimous outside of the New England region that Mahomes is the best player ever — the one people first think of when the sport of football is brought up for many many years.

Mayfield kinda showed us this year that Tampa was a ring chasing championship anyways, like we always knew. We’ll see where it goes. Can’t get to four, five, six, etc without #3.

You can tell how much Mahomes and the team love getting the chance to play the underdog.

They've so rarely gotten to do it that it fires them up like crazy every time it happens.

I truly think that they get bored during the regular season being the favorite all the time and that's a big reason for some of the lapses in focus.

And Carrol/Wilson for #5 and Dee Ford for #4.

What Brady/Belechick accomplished together may never be broken, especially in a salary cap era. As you mentioned, so many things had to go just right to get what they had.