Huh? When?

THROWS OF 20-PLUS YARDS IN 2011 (includes playoff games)
(From Pro Football Focus)
AARON RODGERS, Packers (16 games): 129.1 QB rating
33 of 66, 1,264 yards, 14 TD, 1 INT
MATT SCHAUB, Texans (10 games): 125.3
14 of 37, 499 yards, 5 TD, 0 INT
TONY ROMO, Cowboys (16 games): 123.8
32 of 61, 1,166 yards, 13 TD, 2 INT
ALEX SMITH, 49ers (18 games): 111.4
21 of 51, 723 yards, 6 TD, 2 INT
MATTHEW STAFFORD, Lions (17 games): 107.8
34 of 83, 1,187, 12 TD, 4 INT
DREW BREES, Saints (18 games): 107.3
44 of 86, 1,187 yards, 20 TD, 6 INT
ELI MANNING, Giants (20 games): 103.2
49 of 123, 1,675 yards, 15 TD, 7 INT
CAM NEWTON, Panthers (16 games): 92.6
33 of 89, 1,149 yards, 7 TD, 4 INT
PHILIP RIVERS, Chargers (16 games): 91.4
28 of 75 935 yards, 12 TD, 6 INT
TOM BRADY, Patriots (19 games): 87.7
23 of 73, 746 yards, 10 TD, 4 INT
JOE FLACCO, Ravens (18 games): 81.8
25 of 88, 816 yards, 8 TD, 3 INT
BEN ROETHLISBERGER, Steelers (16 games): 77.5
24 of 75, 818 yards, 7 TD, 5 INT
MICHAEL VICK, Eagles (13 games): 77.2
24 of 58, 769 yards, 3 TD, 4 INT
JAY CUTLER, Bears (10 games): 77.0
14 of 37, 425 yards, 2 TD, 2 INT
MATTRYAN, Falcons (17 games): 69.3
16 of 63, 518 yards, 4 TD, 2 INT

Alex Smith threw 513 passes that year. So 1 out of 10 was a down-field pass.

Stafford every 8.5

Brady every 11.3

He doesn't care about facts only what PFF tells him.

That's a damned interesting stat.

Are those passes that traveled 20 yards in the air or passes that include YAC?

That one must include yac.

Alex only threw 36 passes 20+ in 2011. His rating was similiar to what you saw there.

Tom Brady threw 47 (Interestingly Brady only had 1 completion over 31)

Stafford threw 63.

This is true. Alex's percentage of attempts that traveled 20+ yards in the air was 9.7 percent that year.

That ranked 28th in the league.

He also hit 17 of them. That's decent for Alex, since he's on pace for a whopping 12 this year.

Same shit, different year. Dude has no balls to make NFL throws.

http://i.imgur.com/Iv1harO.jpg

Of course this year he is even worse. Literally at the BOTTOM of the league.

Retrieve thy shinebox.

Air.

The issue isn't not enough. After the training wheels offense early in the season defenses are leaning forward to cut into that yardage. Smith has pulled the trigger on single coverage, problem is he has missed the kill-shots.
Connecting on about 1 out of 4. Need to get closer to 50%.

If you are begging for more you are insane as long as Fisher is the RT. Smith taking the a deep drop and waiting 3 seconds for the WR to do a double move is a recipe for disaster.

ESPN disagrees... 36 total attempts of 21+

http://espn.go.com/nfl/player/splits...011/alex-smith


Unless there were a whole shit load of exactly 20 yard passes...which I doubt.

Clay's has a different number too..but it says deep passes...don't know how that was defined.

Look at all those studs at the top of those rankings. Wow

Cassel, Ponder, Grossman, Tebow, Matt Moore, Carson Palmer, Tarvaris Jackson...a veritable who's who of QBs.

Sweet ****in-a THIS.

ROFL :LOL:

Yes it is, even with the increase.

First 4 games: 5 attempts 20+

Last 4 games: 11 attempts 20+

2.75 attempts per game (11/4) is still not enough. Over a full season that works out to 44 attempts, which would have ranked 26th last year.

The differnce between 8th and 28 was a whopping 4 percentage points.

OMG!

And OMG. Look at the gaggle of CRAPOLA QBs littering the top half of the CHUCK IT list.
You don't see how that CONTEXT makes you foolish?

Flip the chart by deep completions and the list gets shinier.

The top 11 QBs on the list are all studs, apart from Freeman and Flacco, who won the ****ing SB.

http://i.imgur.com/6ce12jC.jpg

Retrieve thy shinebox.

That's irrelevant.

You cannot be dead last in the NFL in deep attempts and expect to field a playoff offense.

it got quiet in here

http://studrunningback.files.wordpre...kets.gif?w=640

So... your first graph shows he attempts .1% less than Tom Brady and completes 5% more. They should trade that Tom Brady guy

Brady was near the top of the NFL in deep completions last season, dumbass.

He's also having a shitty 2013, and is still better than Alex.

Please realize this.

Nice, resorting to namecalling because you are embarassed to show stats that disprove your point. About what I expected from you.

Nothing disproves my point.

Is Alex Smith near the bottom of the league in deep attempts and completions? Yes.

Was Tom Brady near the top last year? Yes.

He's also near the bottom this year, and is having a shitty year. He is not playing well.

But that's still better than Alex. LMAO

There is no defense for Alex and his fraidy cat ways.

Your point is, I quote: "Dude has no balls to make NFL throws. "

So Tom Brady has no balls?

And as to "no defense", there is clearly one from your graph. Deep passing attempts do not correlate to wins.

Try again.

Never said they did.

However, completions...

He's having a poor year for sure.

Comparing Alex Smith to Shitty 2013 Tom Brady isn't doing him any favors, dude.

Check your own graph. That's 2011 Tom Brady.

Yeah, another poor year throwing the ball down the field for him.

And still better than Alex. LMAO

Getting it yet?

Alex fanboys think Alex is a surefire HOFer

Bullshit

Top 11 QBs in downfield completions this year:

Geno - 4-4
Peyton - 7-1
Dalton - 6-2
Rodgers - 5-2
Cutler - 4-3
Roethlisberger - 2-5
Wilson - 7-1
Brees - 6-1
Stafford - 5-3
Rivers - 4-3
Kaepernick - 6-2

Basically, 6 of the best 8 teams in the league right now have guys near the top of the league in completing passes down the field. The exception is Brady and our dear, dear Alex.

Sorry. It is the absolute true.

If it's dire to importance, what's happening with the other teams who's qbs are making this plays?

LMAO

Roethlisberger and Geno are clearly struggling, but that list right there is a pretty clear indicator. The rest of those teams are winning.

NFL deep pass = 15+ yards.

Some organizations like to talk about passes over 20 yards, but the NFL definition of deep pass is 15+ yards. Just look at the play by play of any game.

Dalton and his deep throws sure helped his team tonight.

"In Week 1 of the 2011 NFL season, Brady threw for 517 yards and 4 touchdowns, with one interception, against the Miami Dolphins, the second time he had thrown for 400 or more yards in a single game.[88][89]

In the regular season finale against the Buffalo Bills, Brady became the fourth quarterback to throw for 5,000 yards in a single season, finishing with 5,235; it surpassed Dan Marino's longstanding record of 5,084 passing yards, but finished the season second behind Drew Brees' 5,476."


If you don't get the implication, you are more stupid than I thought. One of Brady's best passing seasons, a historic season really... and guess what he had one of the league's lowest long yard passing attempts. So long pass attempts, the ORIGINAL metric, you were using to try and crucify Alex clearly has nothing to do with passing success.

And I don't know what else you're smoking but Alex had a 5% better completion rating vs a 0.1% less attempt rating so he was clearly more successful than Brady that year on long yard passing.

This all makes sense if you're being objective, that is, and not trying to promote an agenda.

You really don't seem to get it.

Consistently, over the last three seasons, Alex is at the bottom of the league for deep attempts and completions.

There is no way to spin that. It is a bad thing.

Not trying to counter your point. But, he was a couple plays from the Super Bowl with those bad deep passing stats.

You don't seem to get it. It is not a bad thing.

If we go by your original metric, Tim Tebow is the #1 quarterback in the league, Tarvaris Jackson is #6 and Tom Brady is #27.

I never said having a high number of attempts by itself was a good thing. You have to hit on a good percentage of them.

Having a low number of attempts, by itself, is a bad thing, though.

There was this bullshit post that was trying to say Alex attempting 10 percent of his passes down the field was good in some way. Haha, no. That's not enough.

Thank you 49ers defense!

Which basically means your metric of a good QB is meaningless. Unless you think Brady, a guy surefire HOF and guy who is carrying a subpar team this year is a sucky QB.

I like how you change your metric from ATTEMPTS to COMPLETIONS. Put up the top # of long pass attempts this year and we'll see how much your theory holds water.

And no thanks to Kyle Williams.

And our D ain't too shabby either.

"This is true. Alex's percentage of attempts that traveled 20+ yards in the air was 9.7 percent that year.

That ranked 28th in the league.

He also hit 17 of them. That's decent for Alex, since he's on pace for a whopping 12 this year.

Same shit, different year. Dude has no balls to make NFL throws. "

That's not you?

so what are you complaining about here? His accuracy on long yard attempts?

I'm complaining about the fact that he doesn't throw the ball down the field.

I mean I could live with it if he was average or something. But doing it less than anyone else in the entire league...god damn, son.

To me, it's not so much that he does't throw deep very much. It's that (recently anyway) he's been missing horrible on many of the deep passing he has been attempting.

And my answer to you is you are overrating the deep ball. If you complain about Smith not throwing it down the field, you should complain about BRADY NOT THROWING THE DEEP BALL DURING A HISTORIC 5000+ YARD PASSING SEASON.

I'm not saying Smith is the best QB in the world and you can dislike but dislike him for the right reasons instead of manufacturing ones that don't make sense. Like putting up a chart showing him as #28 on long pass attempts which also shows Tebow at #1.

C'mon.

In Brady's case, he gets a pass.

Because um...5,000 ****ing yards.

Alex can't do that.

The Tebow thing is a bit deceptive, BTW. He passed so infrequently that of course his percentage of deep attempts was higher.

Other quarterbacks don't really matter, though. When you are Alex...and you don't throw TDs and you don't throw for a lot of yards and you suck on third down, too....not pushing the ball, and in fact pushing it down the field less than anyone ****ing else...IS BAD.

8-0 and yet the same broken record eh Clay?

Not even to mention, well I guess I am mentioning that it took exactly 8 weeks for Alex Smith and his no deep ball throwing self to beat your weak prediction of 7 wins.

Here you go, just beating the drum.

And you claim I HIJACK threads. You are a broken ****ing record for threads.

Copy paste, rinse repeat.

You would save yourself a shit load of time.

Only 4 the quarterbacks in the history of the league could.

1 of them attempted long passes with the same frequency as Alex Smith.

I know it's taking you a while but let that sink in so you can realize deep bomb attempts don't mean anything when it comes to wins.

So it's back to the drawing board for you for ways to criticize Smith.

This year the leaders in deep completions are leading the best teams.

Ben Roethilsberger does not lead one of the NFL's best teams.
Geno Smith does not lead one of the NFL's best teams
Jay Cutler does not lead one of the NFL's best teams.
Philip Rivers does not lead one of the NFL's best teams.
Matthew Stafford does not lead one of the Nfl's best teams.

Basically 6/11 leaders with deep completions are on the best teams. 4/11 are on mediocre ones. 1/11 is one of the league's worst.

So, no, the leaders in deep completions are not leading the best teams.

6 of the top 8 teams have passers among the leaders in deep completions.

Keep spinning.

Peyton - 7-1
Dalton - 6-2
Rodgers - 5-2
Wilson - 7-1
Brees - 6-1
Kaepernick - 6-2

Those are the teams with the best records this year.

Coincidence that all those guys are among the leaders in deep passing?

Dumbass.

OMGzzz.. ****ing right! This is seriously like watching a mentally ill person pacing up and down the hallway and muttering gibberish to himself.

You have the signature space, Clay... just put "Alex sucks, can't throw deep" in there, and you will never need to post again.

http://www.sherv.net/cm/emoticons/ha...y-emoticon.gif

Just a note - while so many are bantering for this deep ball gunslinger QB, you saw Dalton last night, who was red hot this month (AFC OPotM) and he again proved that guys like him can win AND lose your team games. Say what you will but Alex has yet to lose us a game. He didn't in SF either. However, he did win one for them in January...

Flacco won 4 last year. Next!

1 of the top 1 teams does not

I bet clay loved Jeff george

REALLY? So alex smith who is leading the BEST team leads in deep completions? SWWWEEEEET
Wait. hold up, you said that the LEADERS, now its 6 of 8? You are confusing me dude. make up which side you want to be on.
Well, not necessarily a coincidence. Usually the best qbs tend to have the best talent around them.

You know, Welker, Demariyus, Decker, Julius Thomas,

Jordy Nelson, James Jones, Boykin, Randall Cobb

Kenny stills, Marques Colston, Darren sproles, some dude named Jimmy Graham

Vernon Davis, Anquan Boldin, Kyle Williams.

Aj Green Eifert, Gresham, Sanu, Marvin Jones.

Then there is this group of FANTASTIC DEEP THREATS.

Anthony Fasano, Donnie Avery, Dwayne Bowe, Midget McCluster.

Are you starting to see the DIFFERENCE here?

Yeah, and without Pitta, and Boldin, how is that going for them this year?

Joe Flacco is a franchise qb. His performance in the playoffs showed everyone. He is elite. Why are his numbers no where near what they were?

Boldin was worth getting rid of for a measly 6th round pick.

Pitta wasn't known as a super star tight end.

Why is Joe struggling?

Why is tom brady struggling. Tom Brady is the end all be all.

???? Great qbs, carry franchises.

Not as much as he loves Choke Romo.

How many days can you fight over the same crap?

If it follows the same pattern as the Niners debate, if Alex does well in the playoffs, the fight will be reduced from boiling to a low simmer next season.

What happens if Alice throws for 150yards 0td 0 int's and we lose?

What are the odds he doesn't?...

How many drops did we have? Fumbles? Did the defense play well?

More importantly, how many wings did Reid eat?

-

I have no idea. I'm just trying to get a feel of what to expect if he does one of those doesn't win or lose the game type of things. Is it a boil or simmer?

Avg drops. Let's say we lose 14-13 as Succup misses a 48 yard game winner.

If 2003 was a 9 I'd say this should be a 4.

This isn't years into a rebuild: this is year one after our only 2-14 season...

I was just doing some analysis of the top teams, and I found out that there is a strong correlation between having a good record and the starting QB fumbling:

Manning (7-1) - 4 fumbles lost
Luck (5-2) - 1 fumble lost
Wilson (7-1) - 5 fumbles lost
Brees (6-1) - 0 fumbles lost
Kaepernick (6-2) - 4 fumbles lost
Dalton (6-3) - 2 fumbles lost
Stafford (5-3) - 2 fumbles lost


As you can see, 6 of the 7 top teams have QB's who lead the league in fumbles lost. Manning (4) has the 2nd most to Wilson (5), who are both top notch QB's on arguably the two best teams in the league. Where does Alex Smith rank, you might ask? He's DEAD LAST. ZERO fumbles lost.

How the fuck are we supposed to win games if our QB isn't fumbling more?? OBVIOUSLY lost fumbles corresponds with winning football games! Come on Alex, just drop a ball or two a game and then the offense will really take off!

Then I imagine that the pot will boil over. (But he has shown a fair amount of "clutchness" in the past. I don't really see much chance of that happening.)

LMAO Not bad for a n00b.

Good looking out. I was wondering about QB fumble totals, as I watch some of these QBs fumbling quite a bit. Aside from the low INTs for Alex, the fumbles he hasn't given up are also very advantageous.

... and just throwing it out there, KC is still top 10 in most team drops... and still bottom 10 in OL pass protection... and still #1 in most offensive penalties.

I am not really seeing the "strong correlation" you are seeing here.

Its like when BlackBob tried telling everybody that a first round cornerback was needed for a Super Bowl.

I guess the whole risk/reward thing is just completely lost on some.... part of the reason they're so good is they take risks, whether it's throwing the ball into coverage or taking deep chances, holding onto the ball until the last possible moment or just a second longer, etc.

So, in that sense, Smith is the perfect quarterback for this franchise.

LMAO some of you are hilariously clueless.

He wasn't trying to make an actual correlation between fumbling and winning he was showing how you can use stats to "attempt" to prove any point including a negative one like fumbling.

The point is statistics can be cherry picked and manipulated.