That only works if both teams are exactly the same

It is like saying the odds of the Patriots beating Shawnee Mission High School are 50/50 because there are only two teams

What I'm saying is that it is a little simple minded to pull one stat out of, I don't how many NFL stats there are and look at this one specific stat is means we are going to lose. It's just false.

AS has plenty of weaknesses, talk about those, something not just arbitrary stats that support your argument.

That is if you want to have are real discussion and not just bitch and moan.

The thing that drives me crazy about AS is he lets his brain get in the way to much. And everyone knows who has played any sport, you start thinking too much and you are done.

Another weakness is his rapidly degrading body. Is that relevant enough weakness or will you start backtracking?

well which sme district are we talking about?

I have not backtracked one bit, All I have ever said it that I'm willing to give him a chance.
I'm excited for football and I think he will be successful.

I have said before at least let him fail, then run him out a town.

Alex Smith playing worse as he throws more is a legitimate weakness of his, which has been discussed on here before.

Also, in case you didn't notice, I didn't just dream this up because some stats happened to support it, I was responding to someone else who used their own stats to try and show that this very issue was not a problem.

Alex Smith's Regular Season Career Numbers when attempting 35 or more passes.
364/641
23/40 per game average
20 TDs
19 Ints
71.4 QB Rating
5.7 Yards Per Attempt
4.9 Yards Per Completion
Career Record 3-13

Still say looking at career numbers is a waste of time right now. Convenient or not, focusing on his last few years is easily the smart move if being true in figuring out where Alex is as a QB. It is a what-have-u-done-4-me-lately league. Steve Young and many others started out in very rough situations. Once the situations improved, hey, then you ended up with some really good QB play. Go figure.

What are his stats when throwing the ball 20 X a game?

What is the difference in W-L for team that throws Under 20 over and under 35 and over?

Oh yeah and who were his receivers in the time frame of those stats.

And lets compare a AR receivers in that same time frame.

Stats without perspective are worthless.

The situation improved massively for Smith under Harbaugh in San Francisco and, lo and behold, he was still a mediocre game manager. Go figure.

He was what he was asked to be... in a system that was cautious by nature and leaned on the clear strengths of defense and STs while the entire offense had to play catch-up.

... and as that efficient game manager, he helped produce lots of wins and was a top 10 quarterback in the league for passer rating.


" oh, buts he no had big numberz in the games!!! he is teh suxxorz!"

My God, some people are really stupid and shallow. :deevee:

Don't you know its not the end results that count.

You just have to flashy, look at Stafford and Rivers. Everyone loves them and they are terrible, just horrid.

Hey dumbass - Andy Reid teams throw the ball 35 times a game, that is why the 35 stat is important.

Protip: if a coach has to be "cautious" (i.e. overconservative) with his system for you, you're not a championship-caliber quarterback.

Only if all conditions were perfect, i.e., the other team didn't score at least 24 points, he didn't have to throw at least 30 passes, etc. Then he could just ride the defense and running game to wins.

Since when does everybody love Rivers? He's pretty much been written off by the media as what he is: a quarterback in decline.

And he's not really that "flashy" anymore. In fact, he's turned into the type of pussified quarterback people like you love: a checkdown machine whose yards per attempt is on a sharp decline and who can't make throws under pressure.

LOL, what was it too hard of a question.

Doesn't agree with your stats. Sorry I will quit asking hard questions.

Kind of like how if he threw the ball 100x in a game eh would complete 0% of his passes:rolleyes:

Hey, that's what the statistics "say."

In the 49ers ultraconservative O, if Alex SMith was throwing 35X in a game it was because they were playing from behind and the defense was keying in on the pass almost exclusively.

A year one system where many of the non-QBs don't fully know what they are doing? and the OC is creating an offense on the fly? And a defense well known to have an already solid defense and STs? This team wants to be cautious as they evolve.. and you feel like this is a QB issue? Just stupid. :doh!:

To be important, or even relevant, it would have to be part of an offense that regularly passes 35 plus times a game. Looking at aberrations, which were not 35 plus passing planned games, isn't going to tell you much.

Apparently Harbaugh felt it was a QB issue, since he tried to replace Smith in free agency, then finally replaced him with Kaepernick, who - get this - actually could run Harbaugh's offense and STILL make deep throws! Go figure!

Harbaugh perceives Kaepernick as having a more dynamic skillset. He happens to be correct on that. Alex was incredibly efficient in doing what was needed and asked of him. Bad luck for him was.. he was replaced by that more dynamic player... It happens. Even Joe Montana... who is vastly more accomplished than Alex... was replaced by Steve Young. That doesn't mean that Joe was teh suxxorz, obviously. It just meant that Young could do some things that Montana couldn't.. and it was time to move on.

That was ultimately Joe's choice. At the end of the day the Niners offered him the starting position. He later agreed to the trade to the Chiefs. (I suppose he realized Steve would still be breathing down his neck, an injury and the controversy would start all over again, etc.)

Joe Montana comparisons, yay!

Peyton Manning is on the market and he looked into snagging him. Not exactly out shopping for a replacement.

They also tried to get Hasselbeck.

So, Joe Montana wasn't replaced?

They tried to get Matt Hasselbeck, BEFORE they ever talked to Alex Smith between the lockout, and Jims first season. Nice try by you of trolling. Wait, so let me see. Phillip Rivers, when he had LT, Vincent Jackson, Darren Sproles and Antonio Gates in their prime, he was a beast. Now that he doesn't have those, he is on the decline?

Holy shit, who knew, you need WEAPONS around you? Get out of here. Is that why despite alex smith being gone, the 49ers traded for boldin, drafted a tight end in the second round, and a receiver? No shit?

In 2011, other than Vernon Davis, they didn't have shit in the passing game. Crabtree was a completely different player in 2012, than he was in 2011. He wasn't injured, participated in everything, came in leaner, and became an NFL receiver.

But no, totally. Braylon Edwards, was a total stud before he got released around week 9, Josh Morgan. Whewwwww. what a beast. Ted Ginn. Whewwww. Alex should of put up 40 tds!!!!!

I heard something like he's only got 3 wins when he throws for 30+ in a game.

which of course, is awesome.
Hope we never have to play from behind by 14pts.

This is true. What no one will acknowledge is that his head coaches his entire career, have been RUNNING head coaches. So meaning they had to pass, meant they were trailing. Makes sense.

I can't tell if you're agreeing with me, or if you hate my face.

I was just about to say something similar.


I'm more worried about waht he's going to do when asked to throw it more, and do it in situations where it's expected.


That stat is somewhat misleading in that he's never been on a pass first team, or atleast one thats good. Hence, when he's thrown it that many times, they're already behind.

I don't have any illusions that he hasn't been some of the reason some of his teams aren't passing teams, I dont' know, but it's misleading none the less.

Alex Smith was a #1 pick. He's only failed 6 out of his 7 years in the league. He's really smart and can make all the throws NOW. It's gonna be a great year !

You're the one who can make it happen... Quit holding out and mail him the ****ing superbacon.

Bastard.

Whether good or bad, everyone is entitled to their opinion about these new look Chiefs. Except Clay, who will flip between a good or bad opinion depending upon whenever it suits his needs. Once Alex Smith tosses 4 TD's and 300 yds against Jacksonville, I'm 107.4% sure that he'll come out with a sappy, embarrassing poem about him.

I'm willing to bet Alex Smith never has a 300-yard, 4-TD game as our QB...or anyone else's...

The only SF teams that ran more than they passed since Alex came into the league were 2005, 2011, and 2012.

Both Nolan and Singletary tried to use Alex to pass as the first option. They both failed and were subsequently fired. I'm sure it will work this time, though.

And what weapons did they have on those teams?

Alex is 7-3-1 when he throws 20 times or less. Take out the games he left early due to injury, and he's 7-2.

In other words, the team found much more success by making Alex take a back seat. When they had to depend on Alex, they lost. A lot.

Football players, I believe.

MagicHef, can I send you a bottle of whiskey or something?

*fistbump*

In 2010, when he was throwing to Seyi Ajirotutu and Kelley Washington, he was STILL a beast. He was actually an elite quarterback then. Elite quarterbacks can make scrub receivers look good.

His decline started when he started checking down more, throwing deep less, and panicking under pressure - in other words, once he started playing like Alice Smiff.

You're doing gif'd up, right? Weeks 11 and 13 will be more than enough.

It's coming back strong this year.

That must be when we win the division, knock you out of the playoffs, and start singing, "the neck-bone's connected to the FAIL-Bone...etc".

Better than bad does not equal good, and Alex Smith is a minimal part of the overall equation. That said, Cassel was just ****ing TERRIBLE. I believe we will physically curb-stomp the shit out of you this year.

Morgan was the best wr on the team when he was hurt and his season ended 2011.

And what years was Alex actually playing or healthy?

Agreed he is only like 30 years old with around 7 years played in the NFL. Lets wait at least 7 more years before we jump to any huge conclusions about the guy

why is no one else as smart as you on this intranet site

ROFL

On ChiefsPlanet or somewhere else I won't bother going to to look for it?

Hey, I have some exciting news that you seem to have missed:

The Chiefs hired Andy Reid!

Yes, because John Fox is SO much better...

No shit. Between Reid or Fox, there isn't really a choice to be made.

Their careers have mirrored each other, well, Reid had more sustained success early, so I'd give the edge to him.

?

I'm not saying Reid is a bad coach, I'm saying that there is no way your QB is a "minimal part of the overall equation" with him.

CP

Meh, John Fox is a good enough coach. He's nothing special. I guess his one strength is he let's his coordinators do their thing. But he doesn't really have an identity. At least with Reid, we get an offensive guru. I'm by no means a huge fan of Andy Reid. He wasn't my top choice. But I'd much rather have him than fox.

Singletary was run run pass punt, run run pass punt, until the running game was obviously out of the equation.

Of course there is. We've got the best HC in the division now....not the guy that takes a knee with a HOF QB.

you cant explain it to people Doug. You really cant. You know why? Because they didn't watch the games. They didn't watch the first half be, predictable run, predictable run, try to throw for first down, to where you are trailing by 14+ at half time, and you have to try to throw yourself back into it.

They don't understand the philosophy, and the way it was done. You and I saw it. We saw how when Alex Smith took over the second half of 09, and Jimmy Raye was actually able to use the Shot gun, and pass some, we saw glimpses of what Alex could be. Then what happened? They drafted Iupati, and Anthony Davis that offseason, and he shoved alex smith right back under center again, fired Jimmy Raye, and got himself canned. I love the idea that someone says that Alex Smith was a pass first qb at ANY time under any head coach until now. That is laughable to me.

Nope. Chiefs fans wouldn't understand this at all.

Chiefs fans could understand what Alex Smith was doing in San Francisco without watching?

How is that possible. On more than One occasion, I have been told that I don't know shit about Chiefs football, and what their fans have been through. Now, all of a sudden Chiefs fans have watched every single 49ers game like I have over the past 20 years, and understand what Nolan Singletary, who were just called PASS FIRST COACHES did. And my statement is ridiculous?

Lol....

I was referring to the part I quoted.

Marty, Gunther, Herm...

yes, it could be he used the final 2 seasons or something like that.

according to your post, 15 - 19 is a drastically different stat than 4 - 13. and again, you are talking about a QB that played for Mike Nolan his first 3 years & Mike Singletary his next 3 seasons. the epitome of fail offense those two coaches were.

Reid will have Smith throwing something in that area of 35 passes per game, but it will be more like Walsh's WCO style, not a Coryell style like he was in with Harbaugh. two very different passing offenses imo.

having Jamaal on the offense is going to change the game for Reid. Also, Reid is going to ground it just like any other HC when he's got a lead.

The running game has never been out of the equation in KC. RRPP, RRPP, oh crap, we're behind by 21, RRD(raw)P, RRDP, RRDP....

Unfortunately, I forgot to take sacks into account before when I was talking about the 49ers being a pass first team. This lead me to mistakenly include 2005 as a season in which they ran more than they passed. The truth is that the 49ers passed more than they ran every season between 2005-2010.

In both 2007 and 2009, over 60% of the playcalls were passes.

Conversely, Harbaugh has called more runs than passes in both of his seasons. Suddenly Alex looked better.

What were the Niners' W/L records during those years? How many of the those games were the Niners down by two or more scores at halftime?

Knock yourself out:

www.pro-football-reference.com/teams/sfo/

That was a rhetorical question.

I don't think it was the diff in the amount of passes these staffs asked Alex Smith to throw, those stas are not very different compared with w/l stats of the same periods.

imo the diff is in the poor quality players Smith was playing along with during the Nolan/Singletary seasons compared with the better players he fielded along with during the Harbaugh seasons plus the offensive systems themselves were quite different.

Nolan/Singletary were your RRPP types, very predictable play calling and poor execution by poor quality players. Harbaugh is a guy that will challenge a defense with a pass on first or/and second downs, until you stack the zones with nickel D etc, then he will line up the pistol and **** with your defense -- this imo, along with personnel improvements around Smith and Smith himself became a much better football player -- these are the things that make AS a different QB with Harbaugh compared with the other HC's Smith was playing for.

It was so laughable that Gore later commented how fustrating it was to hear the various defenses calling out the exact play they were going to do before the ball was hiked. Hard to succeed when everyone knows where you're going. Singletary said something along the lines of "we're going to smash them in the mouth and they're going to know it is coming and not be able to stop it." He got the first part right.

"espn.go.com/nfl/player/splits/_/id/8416/year/2010/alex-smith"

145 attempts when behind
77 attempts when not

Considering the team's record that year...it should be pretty obvious that they were behind most of the time...

oh oh oh. Sorry. hehe.

Yep, and it wasn't difficult. Gore up the gut, Gore up the gut, pass.

I am sure happy we have Harbaugh now, but boy, 2007 through 2010 really sucked. Personally, I blame the Chargers.

He's not "minimal" to Reid of course. That said, he's far from being the whole damned show. Let me try this one more time:

If Alex will take care of the football and not go Full-Cassel, the Chiefs can and will physically outmatch you. Our running game and defense will absolutely piss-pound you.

Hence my original post. I mean FFS, there's Marty-tard, and there's Fox taking a knee.

Lol I hope he does well, I am a huge Chiefs fan but we all now that Smith can be terrible at times :/

Ah yes, we Chiefs fans clearly recognize that sinister pattern.

HUARD DROPS BACK ON THIRD AND THREE... OH NO, HE CRUMBLES TO THE GROUND UNDER PRESSURE!

and again, fans from other teams not knowing our history and citing we should thank our lucky stars for said player.

As much as I would to believe that Smith is the answer, I have a strange feeling that he might be a flop for the Chiefs... I'm hoping this won't be the case.

Smart n00b is smart.