I thought we were discussing QBs.

Jackson is so NOT a top 5 QB.

There is a guy in the area code 813 that is on the top 5.

Jackson is good enough to get paid, he'll probably set the high dollar mark especially if he gets onto the open market.

Hard to imagine anything but a 50/50 game betweenthose two, but the playoffs are just different... IIRC, if the higher seed sweeps, they win like 70% of the time against that team in the playoffs.

I’d go:

Mahomes
Burrow
Allen
Hurts
Herbert

Just based on this year. I don’t expect Hurts to stay a top QB.

That said, the gap between 3 and 4 is substantial on my list.

That would be my ranking as well. Still interested in hearing PB's top 5.

IMO being a top 5 QB is kinda meaningless right now.

There’s the top 3 then the next 7 or so could be debated.

I put Mahomes in a tier of his own. Then Allen and Burrow in a very strong tier. Herbert is right at the top of that next tier.

Herbert is 14th in QBR, 10th in points above avg, 2 in passing 22 in rushing and 27 in points below avg in sacks


Top 5? The numbers aren’t even close to that

Playing the majority of the season without his All Pro-level LT and both of his top receivers might have something to do with that.

Herbert is having a strange season. His efficiency numbers are pretty terrible.

He's averaging like 6.7 YPA, which is really bad. Only 21 TDs on like 630 attempts or something.

I'm going off memory but I was looking earlier and he had like 50 more attempts than Mahomes but 500 fewer yards and 15 fewer TDs while still throwing a similar amount of INTs.

I know people say he lost an offensive lineman and was dealing with injuries, but Mahomes has the two worst tackles in the league and lost his #1 WR, yet he's having close to a career year.

Top 5 QB should still have better numbers than that in spite of those issues.

I'd like to stay as far away from the Chargers as possible. Untill we HAVE to play them. :shake:

Two teams I would prefer KC avoid if they can in the playoffs, the LAC because of what everyone has been saying and the Bengals as KC just can’t seem to beat them.

IF, and that's a BIG if, the Bills win out the rest of the season is this what the playoff bracket will probably look like?

https://hosting.photobucket.com/imag...590&fit=bounds

That 1 seed is a pretty sweet place to be.

Either the Bills or Chiefs will only have to play each other OR the Bengals, not both. Might also end up with either the Ravens or Jags at home off a bye.

Such a huge advantage this year.

The Chargers probably feel the same about playing us as we seem to beat them at the end most of the times we play them.

I don’t know if you’ve looked at the state of the QB play in the NFL recently, but he definitely is.

Yes this is effectively it. I’d say Allen is sort of in his own second tier because of what the good version of him is capable of but he’s been bad for months now by his standards.

Having a top 5 QB a decade ago meant you didn’t have Brady, Manning, Brees, or Rodgers but you had your own future HOFer like Roethlisberger, Rivers, etc.

Now, it means you have a super talented player with major inconsistency (Herbert), an incredible athlete but limited QB (Hurts or Jackson), or washed up vet (Rodgers, Brady, etc).

The QB situation in the league is VERY top heavy right now.

I think it will end up.

Chiefs
Bengals
Bills
Jaguars
Chargers
Ravens
Dolphins

Wild Card Round
Bye - Chiefs
Chargers at Jaguars
Ravens at Bills
Dolphins at Bengals

Divisional Round
Jaguars at Chiefs
Bills at Bengals

AFC Championship
Bengals at Chiefs

Part of its gotta be Andy’s schemes and getting guys open in space. Staley and his coaches just aren’t on the level of Andy. Although they’ve both been hurt this year, which IS a recurring theme… but could you imagine what Andy and Pat could do with Williams, and Allen?

Jags or Ravens could certainly beat Buffalo. They have good run games.

I love this and think it is possible! GEAUX CHIEFS!

jags are by far the easiest draw we could get

sb hangs in the balance in cincy

https://pbs.twimg.com/media/FlGnGRUX...pg&name=medium

Of course I want the 1 seed, but I would love to see Mahomes in a road playoff game sometime.

The two shittest teams in the AFC beating the #1 seed. Sure .. anything's possible

The OC is a bad fit for Herbert. It's a Saints offense designed for Drew Brees and doesn't fully utilize Herbert's skillset the way Steichen did.

Steichen has now fully maxed out Hurts which is why I expect him to be a top head coach candidate.

What is it about Cincinnati that keeps them from being in the same tier as KC/Buffalo? If they win this weekend they will have knocked off both KC and Buffalo.

weak schedule

Beating Buffalo is the only thing that will put them on the same level.

wtf? You been drinkin'?

SoS
Bengals .498
Bills .502
Chiefs .471

SoV
Bengals .473
Bills .478
Chiefs .436

Give everyone their team fully healthy and the only thing keeping Herbert out of the discussion is playoff wins.

Rooting for you on Monday. Don’t let us down.

I'll do my best. :thumb:

I appreciate it. Please stretch before the game.

Ravens ain't shit if Lamar isn't playing.

At 56, i stretch before everything.

It's Super Bowl or bust for the Bengals. With their talent, plus coming so close last year to winning, anything besides a SB victory is a disappointment.

It will be a dogfight every season between Mahomes/Allen/Burrow. Only one can advance each year to the SB; plus you still have to win that game. The last two champions came from the NFC. These guys will take many championships away from one another.

One other thing, but why aren't the Broncos in the bottom row on that graph?

you have played a lot of bad teams

that's why we didn't respect you

The numbers i posted pretty much show you can say that about all 3 teams.

You can't really decide who you play and when you play them. Just gotta win em.

just explaining your ranking to you....that's why...you played bad teams and bad QBs, and that is why your ranking is lower than the mighty kansas city chiefs

just explaining your ranking to you....that's why...you played bad teams and bad QBs, and that is why your ranking is lower than the mighty kansas city chiefs

bookmark this post:

karma is paying us back due to the dee ford play. it's just not allowed to be obvious :D

hypothetical question: I Know everyone is rightfully rooting for the Bengals to beat the Bills. But in the very highly unlikely situation that the Chiefs lose this week. how many would still be rooting for the Bengals or would you all be cheering the Bills to win?

I'd be rooting for the Bills.

A Chiefs' loss vs Denver + a Bengals win over Buffalo makes it far more likely that we're a 3 seed facing the Chargers in the WC round (unless the Bengals slip up against the Ravens and then the Bengals could even be a lowly WC team).

I'd much rather face a likely Jets/Patriots/Dolphins team as the 2 seed.

That doesn’t tell us that much. The Eagles’ SOS is decent too (based on win-loss records), but they have 1 decently impressive win all year.

I can see that, but it’s really going to come down to how well the Bills stay together once Allen’s contract really kicks in. Also with the Bengals it will be interesting to see if they can sustain this level of success once Burrow gets paid and they have to make decisions on who to keep and who they let walk. Right now I could see Burrow getting a market setting contract as well as Chase.

Yeah they could easily end up the seventh seed.

We are all assuming the Chiefs beat the Broncos and the Raiders. Of course if the Chiefs lose than having the Bengal’s lose would be better for the Chiefs.

nice gif but you did play a lot of bad QBs and the ranking reflects that

SoS, SoV, DVOA, EPA. It doesn't matter. Bengals are there on any metric with the top teams in the league.

I don't see a murders row for the Chiefs or Bills either. You play who they put in front of you and you either win them or you don't.

Bengals, Chiefs and Bills all played a first place schedules. Eagles played a 2nd place schedule.

What do you mean by "ranking" and why did you go from respect to ranking?

'First place schedule' is just 3 games... and for those 3 teams, it's playing each other and the Titans (minus whichever division they're playing), and the '17th game' against an NFC team (the Bucs for KC).

Sadly, besides the top 3 AFC teams playing each other, there just isn't a great metric (I believe DVOA is the most reliable of those)... most years I'd say playing the bottom ~28 isn't really indicative of anything at all in Jan/Feb. This year it might be the bottom 29 until the NFC teams can prove themselves in the playoffs(SB) against better competition than... well, the NFC.

Doesn't mean there's a huge gap between the Chiefs/Bills/Bengals and everyone else, upsets happen, surprise teams emerge, yadda yadda... but yeah, the Bengals have proven they belong just as much as anyone +/- a game, and the playoff experience from last season is a big deal.

He's right that the Bengals started the year against three backup QBs and Mahomes is the only one on the schedule that would strike fear into the hearts of lesser men. I agree with you about DVOA. The weighted DVOA leans more towards recent games where teams are pretty much who they will be and the Bengals are 4th there.

Throw the Bengals, Chiefs and Bills in bag and whoever you pull out is a legit SB winning contender. 49ers and Eagles are tough but i don't think they're as tough as any of the top 3 in the AFC.

Everyone better keep a close eye on the Chargers. The only question mark with them is playoff performance and we get to see how Herbert does there in just a couple weeks.

DUDE

The Bengals have played:

Mitch Trubisky
Cooper Rush
Joe Flacco
Teddy Bridgewater
Andy Dalton
Baker Mayfield
Kenny Pickett
Deshaun Watson
Mac Jones

That is a goddamn bunch of garbage QBs. And I gave you credit for JACOBY BRISSETT as a non-garbage QB LMAO

Now you get credit for beating Mahomes, but you didn't really stop the Chiefs offense. We averaged 6.5 yards per play and only that fumble prevented a Chiefs win.

So you don't get the respect the Bills and Chiefs have earned to this point.

And that is why you are ranked lower.

Biggest Monday night game in some time.

Yep, and then Higgins walks, probably Boyd, and in the meantime, they haven't invested enough in their OL. They'd better get that fixed this offseason as Burrow's not as elusive as Mahomes and Allen.

I've been saying-we're a year ahead of the curve cap-wise than The Bills and Bengals, and they haven't gotten a SB win on the rookie QB deal yet. This is their last chance with that built in advantage. Well, last chance for Buffalo. Bengals get one more shot before they have to pay Burrow.

Buffalo would match up terribly against San Francisco or Philly.

Of course I would rather not see Buffalo win the AFC.

I really think we need the #1 seed or we are really going to struggle to make the Super Bowl. If we have to go to Buffalo or Cinci I dont think we win those games more than 3 out of 10. Something is just not right with this team offensively even though their scoring offense leads the league. Perhaps that is the stalling out on 3rd and short or sometimes in the redzone. I think it all comes down to having shitty tackles and no real #1 WR. Having Toney and Hardman healthy may be the key to what we need though.

We simply can't defend the Bills or Cinci. Their receivers are too good. Imagine Mahomes with those receiving corps? We wouldn't lose.

The chiefs have a #1 wr. Number 87 running across the field? Remember that guy?

This whole “gotta have a #1 wr outside” stuff has jumped the shark.

Yeah they don’t have jamar chase outside. Same as they don’t have nick bosa at de

This guys go super early in the draft

The issue for me is less home versus away and more that as the #2 seed we'd likely have to beat both the Bengals and the Bills to make the SB (and of course another team beforehand). If we're #1, we get to skip a game and then likely only have to face 1 of those 2 in the playoffs.

If you want to put some numbers on it and assume all of these outcomes are independent, if we're the #2 seed, I think we get something like a Miami (75% chance of winning) / Cincy (55% chance of winning) / Buffalo (45% chance of winning) draw. And that's an 18.5% chance of making the SB.

If we get the #1 seed, we get a Jaguars (80% chance of winning) / Buffalo or Cincy (60% chance of winning) draw. And that's a 48% chance of making the SB.

And right now, I think the Monday night game is about a toss-up so we're probably 50/50 between the 2 scenarios which gives us like a 30-35% chance of making the SB under those odds. Much better than I would've expected coming into the season!

(ESPN FPI has us at 40% to make the SB: https://www.espn.com/nfl/fpi/_/view/projections)

The bold is the key, IMO.

Yup. Another factor will be how well they draft when not benefiting from Top 10 picks. Buffalo seems to be doing pretty well with it, but I am interested in seeing what Cincy does. Any decent GM can build a solid team when they have high picks over the years. The great GMs are the ones that routinely find talent drafting #20 or later every year while still staying competitive.

The #1 seed is obviously preferable, but if it came down to it I wouldn't be super bummed about going to Buffalo. The weather isn't going to put us at a disadvantage. The pressure would be entirely on them since it would be the game they're finally supposed to win. And there's nothing more we can do to them except ruin their dreams in their own house.

But mostly, we've never seen Mahomes in a true road playoff game. He's at his petty best when he gets fired up for big road games. Counting to 4 when beating down the Ravens, counting to 10 against the Bears, revenge game against the Bucs after they talked shit that week, etc, all road games where he was lights out.

I'd kinda like to see it.

#1 seed would give us tons of breathing room, for sure.

I would also love to see one of either the Bills or Bengals fall in the Wild Card Round. I think there is a decent possibility there, too, if the Wild Cards end up being the Ravens (with Lamar healthy), Chargers and Dolphins (with Tua healthy).

Mahomes and the offense generally play better on the road, but the defense plays much better at home.

Plus, hosting another AFC Championship game would be an awesome accomplishment.

I don’t think the Dolphins make it. Not sure they will win anymore this season. Tua is on concussion #3. If they bring him back next week I would be shocked. If they do squeeze in somehow I don’t think they are really much of a threat at least this year. I could see a Lamar led Ravens beating Cincinnati (due to familiarity). Not sure they have the firepower to knock off KC or Buffalo. The wild card is LAC. They are easily capable of knocking off any of the big 3 teams.

We've all heard it before, cut the Chargers are getting healthy and I think they could go deep in the playoffs.
Hopefully we nail down the #1 Seed. Makes the Chiefs path much easier.

The Chiefs don't play well with a lead. Reid doesn't coach well when ahead. They lack urgency unless they're losing. That's why all their games are closer than needed. Notice how good the offense looks when they're desperate for a score. They almost always score on the next possession after falling behind two TDs.

You believe the Jaguars will beat the Chargers or Ravens? I think the opposite.

There are any number of scenarios, but I think the Jags beat the Ravens in that scenario and I have the Chargers at Buffalo.

I don't think the Jags beat the Chargers.

But the thought of the Chargers/Bills/Bengals knocking each other out with only one remaining warms my soul.

Yep. I don’t have the numbers, but I know the defense has been much better at home than on the road. Going back at least a few years. I think they’re allowing under 19 ppg at home this year with pretty low yardage totals, and they’ve played several good offenses.

This is so true. Andy turtles up.

Wins by 10+ points

49ers: 9
Cowboys: 7
Eagles: 6
Chiefs: 6
Bills: 6
Bengals: 6
Vikings: 2

The Cowboys have played one more game and the 49ers have played one of the weakest schedules ever.

Whatever dude.

Sucks that we have to wait till mondy night to find out if we're getting the bye

You can play with statistics, but you know I'm right. They lacked killer instinct against the Colts, Broncos, Jaguars, Rams, Seahawks. Teams they should have blown out quicker. They had to come from behind to beat the Texans and Titans. They also spotted 10 points to the 49ers and 17 to the Raiders.

This offense plays much better when behind or in a close game. Some offenses are built to play with leads. This isn't one of them.

18.7 PPG home

That includes some pretty good games against the Bills, Chargers, Jaguars and Seahawks, all in the top 11 on offense.

Apparently you can say this about any team in the NFL.

The Eagles barely beat Arizona, Indianapolis, Green Bay, and Chicago and lost to Detroit.

The Bills lost to the Jets, squeaked by Cleveland, Detroit, the Jets and let the Bears hang around until late in the fourth quarter.

The Chiefs don't have an issue with this significantly more than any other team, especially considering it's classic Andy Reid and hasn't presented any real issues over the Mahomes era.

It's the NFL. Saying you should blow anyone out, let alone quickly, is not realistic.