Yeah, and these stats are somewhat misleading when you consider the Chiefs' significant advantage in starting position (due to returns, Texans' turnover on downs, field position game) and the thirty yards the Chiefs willingly gave up at the end to kill the clock.

Yet people here shit on him constantly. Very unfair. Traitors.

It's gonna be a huge ask for anybody, but give me the guy with the physical tools to handle the responsibility.

He doesn't seem afraid of anything.

I've read all but about the last 10 pages or so.

Have we discussed the Bill's used of a 6th O lineman in the run game? I can't remember how we faired against that in the first matchup. What are thoughts on how to counter that?

Maybe a combo of Leo, Hicks, and Reid in different spots.

I'm sorry but I don't trust Tranquil. I don't think he has the tools right now.

I mean I know Allen is a bigger stronger qb than most but he's not derick Henry. Reid can take down tight ends. He can handle Allen. We have plenty of options. Just have to be a tad faster to the edge than bolton.

Wasn't even thinking about this.

The Chiefs ran 46 plays for 235 yards before their final possession.

5.1 yards per play. Not great, but same as Texans.

Also majorly skews rushing.

Chiefs had 18 attempts for 78 yards removing kneel downs at end of first half and end of game, and our punter running straight backwards.

He's maybe 10 pounds lighter than Henry. He's hard to bring down.

I’m not sure on Chenal’s speed compared to Hicks, but I want the guy who can stay in front of Allen and make him double clutch. If he sees someone he knows he can outrun or initially has better angles on, he won’t hesitate to take off. But if he has someone who is step for step with him he is much more likely to dance around or run sideways to buy time for throwing the ball instead of running for a guaranteed first down or big play.

A few notes from the Bills/Ravens game I got from X:

-Bills allowed 9 receptions on 12 targets to TEs for 134 yards and a TD, including the potential game tying 2pt attempt where they left Andrews wide open and resulted in a drop

-Ravens RBs ran for 134 yards and a TD on 22 attempts(6.1 YPA)

-Ravens generated pressure on 11 of Josh Allen’s 22 pass plays

Ravens possessions:

TD
INT
Fumble
FG
FG
TD
Fumble
TD

Bills defense isn’t good. Worst of the remaining teams by far. Don’t turn the ball over and we will win

They also didn't matchup with Baltimore very well because Buffalo is small, this really should be Kareem Hunts game.

I’m just not worried about this game. Especially after watching the Ravens bully the Bills only lose to turnovers.

Buffalo didn’t really play well on offense or defense.

As long as we take care of the ball we’ll win

You know, you're absolutely right, but how many times have we seen where we're supposed to have an advantage, like the other team not having its tackles or the secondary out etc, and we don't take advantage of it for some weird reason?? I just hope it's not another one of those type of games.

I feel like this game is a coin flip.

It's Tuesday and I'm already nervous.

100%. I just can't predict a blowout either way. It's gonna be within 1 score in the last 2 minutes, probably a less than 3 point game.

Chiefs just got 23 points on an elite defense.

They're going to destroy Buffalo's D.

Only way we lose is if Josh Allen has the game of his life.

Not gonna happen with this d

Buffalo defense is very good at forcing turnovers. Mahomes & other KC guys will need to do a flawless job protecting the ball. Cannot make the type of mistakes we saw from Baltimore's offense a couple days ago.

At home. Buffalo isn’t good on the road

Most of the public so far has on the bills.

So that’s good

Von Miller and Rousseau are both athletic pass rushers. I hope we can get the screen game going with Hunt. Reid has been very creative with screens and I hope he has a good plan to mitigate those edge rushers against our OTs.

Buffalo is definitely more vulnerable on the road. But I do remember their defense getting a bunch of big turnovers on the Colts in Indianapolis, including a Pick 6. But that's Joe Flacco. Mahomes will hopefully be a hell of a lot more careful with the ball.

I hope the whole nation picks Buffalo because that would be ammunition for Patrick Mahomes and the guys to be counted out you know how Pat gets when they go against he becomes Petty mahone's

Rousseau wins with size/length (not fast wins) and Von Miller is a shell of his former self. Totally diffeeent duo.

We haven’t had a turnover since that Buffalo game. No turnovers since November 17th

The offense really needs to have an elite performance on Sunday… a 30+ point/vintage Mahomes game.

As long as they avoid turnovers/self-inflicted errors… no reason they can’t do this vs a Buffalo defense that was mediocre before the injuries in their secondary.

We didn't even open our playbook up either. Offensively we'll be fine defensively getting to Allen and not letting him run is the thing that worries me.

Dang it. I thought I was posting in this thread at first, but I posted this in the season-long Bills thread by mistake.

Spencer Brown and Dion Dawkins are both really good at timing their jumps to the snap. That type of little advantage is one that can take a hit in hostile environments. Something small to watch that could have a big impact.

Does it turn a 4th and 3 the Bills are going to go for to a 4th and 8 they punt on? Etc.

30 points is the max I see Buffalo scoring in this one.

I believe they’ll have a tougher time throwing this time around with Watson and Omenihu back. Also the rest of the DL should be better rested. Playing at home helps with snap timing and all that.

I suspect Buffalo will run better this time around, so that alone may hold their scoring down.

Feel great if we get to 27 points. I think we will. The weapons are better now. Turnovers have dramatically decreased too.

Von Miller is in his 14th year and hasn’t had double digit sacks since Mahomes was a rookie.

This game is about Josh Allen, period.

When Buffalo played “regular offense” in the second half vs Baltimore… i.e. Josh Allen not running around making backyard football-type plays… the Bills offense was contained.

I think the 13 second game was the last time our offense played really well against them. Seems it's always a struggle.

We have the better coach and quarterback.

Only way we lose this game is if we have a bunch of turnovers or Allen outplays Mahomes.

Personally I am betting big on Mahomes.

They played great against them last postseason, they were at something absurd like 9 yards per play for most of the game.

The Bills just ran the ball a ton and limited possessions (and Hardman's fumble that took 7 off the board).

It’s a nice trend. Hope they can keep it going.

Josh Allen gonna be a problem.

Kinda wish BAL advanced because of typical playoff Lamar but making BUF fans miserable again has a nice ring to it too.

The Kansas City Chiefs are never a coin flip.

Did you watch the Playoff game in Buffalo last year? Buffalo ran for 180 yards and held the ball for 63% of the game. Despite very limited possessions, the Chiefs offense would have scored 34 points if Hardman didn’t have the idiotic fumble on the goal line. Mahomes & Kelce torched the Buffalo defense in their home stadium.

Josh Allen has 0 4th quarter comebacks and 0 game winning drives in the postseason.

Patrick has 5 4th quarter comebacks and 6 game winning drives in the postseason.

It seems pretty clear who the clutch quarterback is.

Yeah I think having to go silent count accounts for most of the roughly 1.5 points spread advantage at home. Tougher for linemen to time that critical first movement and avoid false starts. Replay has largely negated the ref bias.

well think of it this way... Buffalo should have lost that game, except Playoff Lamar showed up a week early.

The Allen/McDermott Bills have never won a road playoff game. The franchise as whole hasn't since Jim Kelly just to add to the pressure.

The Ravens game was the first time they've ever beaten a team seeded higher than 5, and it took 3 turnovers and the drop at the end to win by 2. At home.

Their secondary is trash.

I said it last year and I'll say it again. All they got is

LOSER DNA
AND
PUCKERED BUTTHOLES

You use yer mouth purtyier than a $20 whore

If we can't attack their secondary, I feel like that's a huge failure on our part.

I know defenses have taken away the deep ball, I know Patrick hasn't been as consistent with the deep ball as we would like (except for that Hollywood ball, that's a great sign), but this is it. No excuses. We have the greatest QB alive, they have a depleted secondary. It's time to go deep.

Buffalo defense weaknesses:


Throws to the intermediate middle of the field

Misdirection plays

Screen Passes

Run Pass option plays

Power Inside, Power counter runs



Our offense did very little of this last meeting.

Sunday is Poppa Kelce Day

The next playoff game that their defense doesn't get clobbered by the Chiefs O will be the first... that's happened no matter how great their defense or our offense are.

Does that change? If so, how?

I just think we're about to get an Andy Reid and Patrick Mahomes masterclass.

But SURELY Andy Reid wasn't simply holding back the best tricks for the game that matters.

That would be CRAZY.

Yup. These guys are not Danielle Hunter and Will Anderson.

Lamar had a ton of time against them and their OL has struggled.

I'd be more concerned with Rousseau or Epenesa batting balls up in the air than them getting a bunch of quick pressure. It's not real close either. Those quick screens are a more dangerous proposition against this team, at least with those two at the edge.

Agreed. I think Rousseau got an INT on a quick screen on us a while back. I want to say 2021ish..?

I could also be remembering wrong. Nwosu was always a nightmare on those sorts of quick passes outside when he was with LAC.

Make it so.

Shit man that was just last season. First drive of the game. Tried a screen to CEH.

Plays to throw out, not run against Buffalo defense


Anything slow developing

Runs to the outside

Short passes, WR screens

Run up the middle on 3rd or 4th down (Buffalo will gamble and over commit)



Buffalo defense runs 100 MPH to the ball. Monken called a decent game against them but even he wasted plays doing some of this stuff.

Have to be ready to hammer those guys in the chest if they give up on the rush and start looking to get their hands up to bat a pass down.

<div class="tenor-gif-embed" data-postid="5561982543869237008" data-share-method="host" data-aspect-ratio="1.81818" data-width="70%"><a href="https://tenor.com/view/weaknesses-strengths-michael-scott-michaelscott-gif-5561982543869237008">Weaknesses Strengths Michael Scott Michaelscott GIF</a>from <a href="https://tenor.com/search/weaknesses+strengths+michael+scott+michaelscott-gifs">Weaknesses Strengths Michael Scott Michaelscott GIFs</a></div> <script type="text/javascript" async src="https://tenor.com/embed.js"></script>

ROFL

Allen has been better at home
Rtg. Pct. TD-INT. Y/A
Home 110.2. 67.2. 18-3. 7.8
Road. 92.6. 59.9. 12-3. 7.4

Bills secondary struggles on road
Y/A Rtg. TD-INT
Home 5.9. 86.3. 12-7
Away 8.1. 99.3. 16-9

Mahomes remarkably consistent this year home and road.

We're going to **** them up!!!!!!

If it's just a quick throw to a WR with a blocker on the outside Buffalo will play that well.


The screens that work are the ones where you draw them in and get it to a RB or TE with multiple blockers set up.


That goes to how Buffalo just runs fast to the ball.

Spags bag is gonna be dirty LMAO

<blockquote class="twitter-tweet"><p lang="en" dir="ltr">Done with the first half. Not one matchup for McDuffie on Shakir. He mostly played zone and matched in man on Cooper. <br><br>I&#39;d imagine that changes drastically with Watson back <a href="https://t.co/Vz3VHjhZqn">https://t.co/Vz3VHjhZqn</a></p>&mdash; Matt Verderame (@MattVerderame) <a href="https://twitter.com/MattVerderame/status/1881802182426857775?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">January 21, 2025</a></blockquote> <script async src="https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js" charset="utf-8"></script>

The Bills live in zone coverage. McDermott is not gonna deviate. Verderame said the overwhelming majority of their defense all year is zone. You want the short passes on certain designs.

These guys are gonna focus on stopping Kelce first. Having speed like Worthy/Hollywood forces the defense to act quickly passing off since they are in zone coverage. And bet your ass that Andy will use the threat of Hollywood/Kelce deep push LB’s and DB’s back which opens them up to be exploited by speed.

We saw Andy dice it up already. He knows. There’s a reason he laid off Worthy after one drive. He was showing too much.

<blockquote class="twitter-tweet"><p lang="en" dir="ltr">Ironically, Xavier Worthy is terrorizing the Bills right now. <br><br>51 yards + 1 TD through 15:07 minutes<br><br> <a href="https://t.co/yX2ypL5yWn">pic.twitter.com/yX2ypL5yWn</a></p>&mdash; SCOUTD (@scoutdnfl) <a href="https://twitter.com/scoutdnfl/status/1858270859493859700?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">November 17, 2024</a></blockquote> <script async src="https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js" charset="utf-8"></script>

We are going to eat the heart of the Buffalo. Mahomes will sink his teeth in.

As it is written.

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Turnovers are a pretty flukey defensive stat and Buffalo is pretty much reliant on them this year. They will look very susceptible if they can't get a turnover or two.

There's a chance both Rapp and Benford are out this game. No excuse for our offense not to have their way if they can continue their streak avoiding turnovers.

Dont forget Taron Johnson may not be 100%. He had a partial dislocated shoulder.

They played quite a bit more man than they normally do in the first meeting.

I get what you're saying. But think about it for a minute. Mahomes, Kelce and Jones are the 3 best players on the team. Them being tired is still a big issue.

Good luck doing that now with Hollywood out there in addition to Worthy and Hopkins.

I think we roast them.

Right. Especially with the injuries, they don't really have the horses to play man and guys like Hollywood and Worthy will beat them.

If they go back to majority zone, Kelce and DHop will beat tthem.

Unless Mahomes just shits the bed, I don't see them stopping the Chiefs' offense.

You run the Steelers game offense.

We lived on that stuff that attacked the edges of the zone. That's how we were able to push the ball downfield without actually having to hold the ball at all.

Houston saw it and adjusted (I was a little surprised they were able to do so -- I didn't give their DC enough credit). Will Buffalo do the same?

They really should. As I said in the Humphries thread - it isn't a secret why that stuff worked for us even with the quick drops and fast developing plays. Is Buffalo going to try for the Cover 4 kind of stuff that makes us switch it up? Will they go with the Cover 3 stuff that I think we can get to a bit? Cover 2 that I think we can absolutely shred?

Gonna be interesting to see. Like you, I doubt they go man heavy like Houston did. If for no other reason than they simply don't have the personnel to do it well.

ROFLLMAO

<blockquote class="twitter-tweet"><p lang="en" dir="ltr">I have no reason of saying this other than being a hater. The Bills or whatever NFC team gotta beat the Chiefs. We can’t let them keep getting away with this</p>&mdash; marlonhumphrey.eth (@marlon_humphrey) <a href="https://twitter.com/marlon_humphrey/status/1881793320839733398?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">January 21, 2025</a></blockquote> <script async src="https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js" charset="utf-8"></script>

:LOL:

He’s gotten two, then. It also happened when the Bills pushed our shit in at home in 2021.

Based on history and Mahomes career numbers I think KC has about an 80% chance of winning this game.

McDuffie on Shakir is going to change this game so much from round one.

He’s the guy who keeps or gets their passing game in rhythm.

Don’t let Cook run all over you and I love our matchups in the passing game knowing we are about to get a Spags AFCCG plan.

I love it. Anyone want to talk about reason to HATE the Ravens? How about their famous player, Ray Lewis, that was, at minimum, an accessory to murder in the aftermath of the Super Bowl in Atlanta Jan 31, 2000. Lewis is a hero in Baltimore though.

Lamar actually played lights out outside of the fumble and INT.

Like 85 out of a 100 QBR.

And one of the single dumbest sacks a QB can take.

In between he was throwing to guys who didn't have a defender within 15 feet of them.

Lamar played with the Madden sliders on Rookie level and STILL managed to have 3 catastrophic mistakes in a game that they lost by 2 points.

So apart from THAT, Mrs. Lincoln, how was the rest of the play?

Ravens never cease to show what a pathetic franchise they are. Still unfortunate that Lamar/Andrews choked that game away as it would have been nice to eliminate them again ourselves.