I just wish that we were the "surprise" team at the Winter Meetings this year. I know, rooting for the Royals precludes that.
Mortgage a few Walmarts for Josh Hamilton. Trade LoCain and Bonifacio for Dickey. (even without an extension) Dump Francouer. Move Myers to Center. BOOM. |
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Or even Sanchez Posted via Mobile Device |
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But think about what a ****ing splash it would be to sign all three. Posted via Mobile Device |
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Royals nation rejoices. Oh wait, nevermind. We've got HOCHEVAR. |
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and here we go.........Yost believes Hochevar can "turn the corner" ROFL
http://www.kansascity.com/2012/12/03...-can-turn.html That impact addition the Royals are seeking for their rotation, manager Ned Yost suggests, could already be in hand. “I look for Luke Hochevar to bounce back,” Yost declared Monday in his news conference at the Winter Meetings. “I really do. I think Luke has great stuff, and I feel good every time he steps on the mound. “The optimist in me thinks he’s going to have a great year.” The Royals reinforced their rotation in recent weeks by obtaining Ervin Santana in a trade from the Los Angeles Angels and retaining free-agent Jeremy Guthrie. They continue to push hard on trade possibilities for a front-of-the-rotation addition. That quest – and a willingness to surrender prospects — is one of the major storylines this week while baseball convenes as an industry for its annual meetings at the Gaylord Opryland Resort and Convention Center. “Would I like to have another starting pitcher?” Yost parried. “Would I like to have two more starting pitchers? Sure. I think every major-league manager would … but at what cost?” Yost is adamant the Royals continue to see Hochevar as a potential cornerstone despite all indications to the contrary through seven professional seasons. Hochevar was 8-16 last season with a 5.73 ERA in 32 starts. Ask Yost to explain his conviction, and he rapidly ticks off a series of points. “One, he’s got great stuff,” Yost said. “Two, he’s a great competitor. Three, he’s not afraid …” Pause. “You can pinpoint why a guy doesn’t have success more times than not,” Yost said. “You can look at a pitcher and see makeup flaws. Or maybe it’s stuff. Or maybe he doesn’t throw enough strikes. Or maybe the quality of his pitches isn’t really good. “I don’t see any of that with Hoch. “I like his pitches. I like the quality of his pitches. I like his stuff. I like the way he competes on the mound. I like his makeup. He’s not scared. He goes right after hitters. He does his homework. The intangibles are there to have success. He just hasn’t had it.” Hochevar was the first overall pick in the 2006 draft and reached the majors late in the 2007 season. While he has flashed dominant potential on occasion, he is also a combined 38-59 with a 5.39 ERA in 132 career games. Even so, general manager Dayton Moore said the club never considered non-tendering Hochevar prior to last Friday’s deadline, which means the Royals are probably looking at, roughly, a $4.4 million outlay for next season. Yost acknowledged Hochevar’s lack of success is puzzling. “I’ve never really had a player,” he said, “who I couldn’t figure out why he hasn’t been successful. Again, you can, generally, identify one thing for why a player isn’t successful With Hoch, I can’t. “I think, at the blink of an eye, it can turn around for him. I just think it’s a matter of time before he is successful. I think this year, with the addition of Santana and having Guthrie from the beginning of the year, I think it’s really going to help Hoch.” |
"It can turn around in the blink of eye." Like to thank my father for raising me a Royals fan.
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Think about this... we're going to be in Luke's 6th year of total sucktitude. It reminds me why this organization has sucked for SO ****ING LONG. |
Anyone see what Ned Yost said about Hoch?
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There is no hope for this franchise. |
Can someone post the Hochever article? I haven't had a chance to read it.
Meanwhile, the Nats just signed Dan Haren for 1 year/$13M (he also got $3.5M from Angels buyout). $16.5M for a down year and a bad back? Nicely done Dan. And the Nats move right back to the top of the National League with that staff. THAT's how you build a rotation. Three draft picks (Stras, Zimmerman, Detwiler), traded prospects for another stud (Gio) and signed a vet to fill things out. Impressive. |
Rany says it best...he cant pitch with runners on base.
http://www.ranyontheroyals.com/ Luke Hochevar, bases empty: .252/.313/.425Luke Hochevar, men on base: .304/.372/.480Luke Hochevar, runners in scoring position: .315/.388/.504 Any questions?) |
They also made a damn good move to get Denard Span, which shores up their only major weakness (CF defense and leadoff).
They'll be able to move Werth to the 2 hole or maybe the 6 hole now with Span leading off and playing GG defense in center. That team is going to be really really freakin' good. |
Credit to Rany's blog for this one :
Luke Hochevar, bases empty: .252/.313/.425 Luke Hochevar, men on base: .304/.372/.480 Luke Hochevar, runners in scoring position: .315/.388/.504 Gee, what could his problems be? I'm having a devil of a time figuring out this Gordian Knot..... |
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Matt Morris had issues like this towards the end of his time with the Cardinals. It seemed like his stuff really diminished when he pitched from the stretch. The Cardinals still refused to keep him in the windup with men on, though. There's a good chance that his shoulder was just hamburger already, but you couldn't miss the fact that he was still throwing 94 from the windup. Maybe it wouldn't have made a difference, but I sure would've liked to have seen them try. With Hoch, what the hell could it hurt? Though, like I said, getting a pitcher w/ a .738 OPSA for your troubles that now can't hold baserunners isn't exactly a bangup resolution either. |
Can't believe this came out of Ned's mouth. Does Ned drink?
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Rany makes an incredibly compelling case for R.A. Dickey in today's post.
I wonder how much the Mets really want... It seems like the Royals CAN do that deal for something that doesn't include Wil Myers or Sal Perez (obvious deal breakers). Cain + Ventura + Jason Adam? |
Ned Yost:
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Every baseball team the Royals face: Quote:
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If Cain stays healthy, he's due a breakout this year, IMO.
He showed surprising power even after the leg injury that could've really robbed him of his base. You give him 600 ABs, you could potentially have a 20/20 player on your hands. Granted, a ton would have to break right for that to happen and he'd certainly need to continue to work on his strike zone judgment, but it's not impossible. You guys will really regret Myers in CF, IMO. You cannot cut corners on your defense up the middle. I guess you also have that banjo hitter off the bench you could run out there, but man are you really eager to give that guy 500+ ABs? I'd still rather give up Colon. Cain could be a very valuable weapon for the Royals, both offensively and defensively. |
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I would much rather convince the Mets to take Colon instead of Cain, but I'm not sure that works. They would need to work out some sort of Dyson platoon in Centerfield, possibly with Myers getting some time there in road stadiums. I can't imagine Myers being worse than Melky Cabrera was there a few years ago (not sure defensive metrics would back that up, but I thought Cabrera was a really range-lacking CF). Giving up Cain would hurt, but I could live with it if you're getting Dickey back (especially because you can likely extend him to a Jeremy Guthrie-esque contract). |
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DJ - I think Colon is in Zach Cox territory at this point. He has a LITTLE more value because of his defensive position (passable SS, above-average 2B), but his bat has been a major disappointment.
He showed some positive signs towards the end of 2011 before getting hurt, but not enough to rebuild much value. |
Apparently, the Mets ALSO are looking for bullpen help. That is a bonus for KC.
It seems like Crow is someone the Royals are willing to move, and maybe that makes the package you send to the Mets a little less painful. Hell, if it takes Holland, that's OK, too. |
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A deal would probably revolve around Cain, and unless the Mets are putting up a smoke screen about preferring to extend if their high price isn't met, I'm not sure that Cain would do it. If the Mets don't budge from Myers or Perez, a trade wont happen. |
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Probably not the centerpiece of a deal for Dickey, but it might be a useful chip in putting the Royals over the top. |
Fair enough, I hadn't followed Colon as closely as you guys have. As far as I knew, you were still seeing him as your 2b of the future and potential #2 hitter.
I do kinda question the concerns about his offense, though. He still clearly has plus bat control; he doesn't K much at all and generally walks about as often as he Ks. He could use a little more power, but 10 HRs from a MI isn't bad. The real knock appears to be his 2011 season where he put up a pretty miserable line...but was it really? Normalize his BABIP (I tend to use .305 for speedy hitters) and you end up with 141 hits on the season, good for a .287 BA (and a commensurate uptick in OBP getting him up into the .360 range; very good for a non-power hitter). That was at 22 yrs old and in his first trip around AA. Then he proceeded to do almost exactly that in 2012 in his time at AA. That suggests his 'true' performance level is probably right about there. So if you're getting a .290 hitter (w/ a .350 OBP) with plus bat control and SS range at 2b, aren't you doing pretty well for yourself? I dunno that I'd say he's Cox. Cox didn't have a defensive position and ultimately just wasn't showing any real useful skill at the major league level. You could argue, however, that Colon is showing a little of what we saw in Matt Carpenter in the minors. I tell ya, if Carpenter had Colon's ability to play the middle infield, he'd have been a cinch starter. I think the Royals should be able to sell Colon higher than you're suggesting. |
Send the Mets Ed Hearn back.
Seriously, Sal Perez is untouchable. That kid is going to be a multiple year all star. He's Sandy Alomar Jr. and Pudge Rodriquez rolled into one. He makes our pitching staff much better, because he calls a good game and nobody runs on him. Being strong up the middle is key. Perez, Esky, Cain. Now we need a second baseman and we're set. |
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Would you require a 2 year extension in order to do the deal, or would you just take him this year and roll the dice? (Dickey, that is).
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Part of the deal with Colon is that he was so meh/average offensively at Northwest Arkansas, which typically is a place where guys put up monster numbers (though that's more true for lefties than righties). He's a 2B option, but I don't know that Royals fans consider Colon the answer at 2B that he was after being drafted. The Mets also have a pretty bright young 2B prospect in Jordany Valdespin, too, who I'd rank above Colon. So unless the Mets buy Colon at SS, I'm not sure he's an attractive piece to them. |
The Texas League is not a pitcher's league. Advanced-A Wilmington is rough for hitters, but offense heats up in AA and AAA. Someone who projects out to be a decent hitter in the majors should be OPS'ing above .800 in AA, preferably above .850. (Wil Myers hit above 1.100, so he might be an All-Star)
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Mets are still pushing us to give up Myers. They have got to come down from that, Myers for 1 year of Dickey (who knows if he'd agree to extend) is not going to happen.
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Especially when Myers for Shields or Myers for Hellickson + are on the table. I doubt anyone offers them more than: Cain + Crow + Ventura. Which I'd do, gladly, if you feel like you can extend Dickey for 2-3 more years (Age doesn't matter to a knuckleball guy). |
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It's not like the guy has a career plagued with injury issues. His minor league career will show you only one season in which Cain was injured for an extended period (2009). Perceived injury problems with Cain due to this season's leg issue would be similar to deciding Matt Kemp is injury prone after dealing with the same issue. Leg injuries suck, mainly because they are so unpredictable - and so easy to re-aggravate. |
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We began with completely nothing and a barren minor league system. Unless you have a payroll well north of $100MM, it takes a while to build from scratch. Almost every milestone of progress we were told to expect in the minor leagues and the performance of our hitters has occured and in some instances surpassed (the so-called best farm in recent baseball history), buying him more time. Our minor league pitchers failed (TINSTAAPP), but we're apparently going to patch that over with free agents. He's probably bought himself a good 2-3 years of rope to hang himself with at this point. |
imo if the Royals really want to win then they should trade for a starter and sign a starter in FA.
Glass should feel it the time to 'buy' some pitching if they REALLY want to make a statement then they should just buy 2 new stud starters in FA. |
imo if the Royals really want to win then they should trade for a starter and sign a starter in FA.
Glass should feel it the time to 'buy' some pitching |
If we are dealing Myers, it had better be for someone along the lines of Price. Even if we have to throw in a couple ancillery pieces.
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To this point, "the greatest farm system" has netted zero results. None. Just a pile of hope slightly shorter than the pile of shit that most deposit every morning. And now he's earned 2-3 more years? Because he re-signed Guthrie? Acquired a decent lottery ticket in Santana? Continued with Hochevar? Sorry, this is simply wrong. If the team goes on another 90-loss bender in '13, DM more than deserves to be fired. It's results or get the **** out time in KC. |
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Yet we're lengthening the leash? Royals fans are all too willing to limit the amount of accountability for the team and its leaders. |
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But Myers? No. I want Price, Matt Moore or King Felix. Period. I still want Josh Hamilton. Give up Cain and prospects for Dickey, move Myers to Center, Hamilton to right. What a killer lineup THAT would be. |
Underrated, Value pitching FA's
1. Brandon McCarthy The last time baseball fans saw McCarthy on the mound, he was struck by a line drive—an extremely scary moment for everybody involved. Thankfully, he was recently cleared for baseball activity and should be ready for roll for 2013. McCarthy has been widely overlooked for quite some time because today's stat-centric baseball world loves pitchers who strike out a lot of batters, which he doesn't do. Yet he's posted an ERA below 3.35 for two straight seasons. The 29-year-old starter relies on terrific control (less than two walks per nine innings) and good pitch variation to keep hitters off-balance. As long as he remains healthy, he's the perfect target for a team looking to fill a No. 3 spot in its rotation. 2. Shaun Marcum Marcum is a high-upside target who also presents some risk. He has only topped the 200-inning mark once during his career and is coming off a season in which he made just 21 starts. Giving him a contract would be based on the hope he can stay healthy. That said, a quick look at his numbers will show why he's worth taking a chance on. The right-hander has not posted an ERA above 3.70 since becoming a full-time starter in 2008. Just as impressive, his strikeout rate was nearly eight batters per nine last season. He finished the season healthy and should enter spring training in good shape after having the winter to rest any lingering issues. If he goes on to make a full complement of starts next season, he will be viewed as a major free-agent steal. Mitchell Layton/Getty Images 3. Carlos Villanueva Villanueva is another interesting case. He has never made more than 16 starts in a season. Instead, he's been used mostly as a swingman between the rotation and bullpen over the past few seasons. But now he wants a guaranteed spot in the rotation, according to Shi Davidi of Sportsnet. Judging by his performance during July and August last season for the Toronto Blue Jays, it's an agreement teams will probably be willing to make. He was Toronto's best pitcher over that span, including a 4-0 record with a 1.93 ERA in July. The biggest concern is control (3.3 walks per nine), but every pitcher outside the top tier is going to have at least one flaw. Given his high strikeout rate and periods of dominance last season, he'll be a tremendous rotation filler for next season. |
Either Marcum/McCarthy would fit nicely, IMO. But they aren't the ace guy that Sanchez, Dickey, or Price/Moore would be in a Myers deal.
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If we just get one more pitcher, I will go down for spring training. (some of it).
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Why would the Royals trade anyone? They have too many holes. Plugging one hole by opening another is senseless.
Myers should start day 1 in RF and play the whole way thru. Frenchy can get some spare AB here and there vs LH. No pt getting a few extra WAR by sacrificing a possible Dale Murphy. And trading Butler only adds a DH hole |
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Hell, the Giants won the World Series with Gregor Blanco, Brandon Belt, and Marco Scutaro. |
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That said, DM also foolishly spends the resources that he has been allotted. Look no further than Luke Hochevar and a completely wasted 4-5 million dollars. If this were an isolated incident with Moore, no one would care, but this is a pattern. DM is habitually incompetent, and I'm astounding that some are willing to give him up to nine years without any viable on-field results. But I guess if we can continue to win Baseball Prospectus Championships, we should be satisfied. |
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Spending good chunks of that limited payroll on guys like Getz, Hochevar, Bruce Chen, Jeff Francouer that can EASILY be replaced by AAA players at a fraction of the cost. That's $16 mil tied up in absolute garbage. 2 of those could have been cut this offseason without losing a penny, freeing up money, but was not done. 2012 it was $19 mil on Francoeur, Chen, Hoch, Betancourt, Quintero and Getz. Garbage. That was 33% of the payroll in guys that everyone knows suck and are wastes of money and roster spots. This doesn't include the $12 mil wastes that were Soria and Sanchez (not GMDM's fault). The year before that it was Kendall, Davies, Francoeur, Chen, Hoch, and Francis. Those guys comprised of 40% of the payroll. Its sunk cost after sunk cost. Haven't even started on his trade history... that is another argument, which he's even a worse overall track record. He is a very poor GM. Very poor. |
Dealing Myers would be ****ing stupid on all levels.
The Royals aren't on the brink from winning a WS. We currently have Jeff Franceour in the god damn outfield. |
My leash on Moore is near its end. I don't know that it's quite all the way there, but it's damn close.
I've been saying for a while... this offseason is the barometer. The moves Moore makes in this position ultimately decide his fate, in my mind. KC had better be +.500 and in the thick of for him to make it to next year, IMO. And it had better make the playoffs the following year. I think Moore's trade history takes an unwarranted beating, and he has done well when trading an actual, valuable piece. When the worst you can point to is a reliever for Mike Jacobs or David DeJesus for Mazzero and Marks, meh. And hindsight makes a lot of contracts look foolish. Bringing back Hochevar last year, for example. His second half of 2011 was encouraging and carried a lot of nice indicators that he had made REAL changes to his approach as a pitcher. In hindsight, it was fool's gold. But at the time, offering him arb was the best move. Dayton's love of Jeff Francoeur is frustrating, but the two year deal he was signed to did not look AWFUL at the time. The Royals had a big hole in RF, and Myers was coming off of a season that made him look like a potential bust. The original one-year deal was a brilliant flyer. The second deal was below market value, and even if Francoeur regressed to usual level, he still would be a decent value at that price (.260/20/70/10 on the open market for $6.5 million). Of course, he was worse than he'd ever been before. Yes, money could have been saved at 2B, UTIL, backup C, last year. But you have to pay the reserves SOMETHING (And you're talking about $4 million vs. $3 million, most likely). What I wouldn't argue with at all, though, is that Moore is entirely too loyal and trusting of "the scout's view." That's why they stuck with Davies so long, why Hochevar is still around, etc. All GMs make mistakes. Dayton Moore certainly has. It's how they respond and recover from mistakes that makes the difference and separates the wheat from the chaff. |
Billy Butler named edgar martinez (best DH) award winner per 610 sports.
My bad if Q |
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As far as trades: JP Howell for Gathright. "wtf?" MacDougal for Lumsden and Cortes... still never understood why that was done. Ordalis Perez trade. Jeremy Affeldt and Denny Bautista for Shealy and Dohman... JESUS CHRIST Keppinger for Haltiwanger Nunez for Jacobs - that was another where everyone but Dayton saw Jacobs for what he was. Octavio Dotel for Kyle Davies Betancourt - Nuff said Alberto Callaspo for nothing DeJesus for Mazarro\Marks Teahen who everyone loved for Getz, who everyone hates. Good one. Betemit for 2 nothings Aviles for 2 nothings Cabrera for Verdugo (just designated for assignment) and Sanchez... I liked the trade at the time. But it still ended Horrrrrible for the R's. Let's list the trades that have worked out for the R's. Billy Buckner for Alberto Callaspo. That worked out okay, we got a cup of coffee use out of Callaspo as a utility player, but gave up a good prospect at the time for him... we didn't get fleeced so... I guess? But he ruined it by turning around and shipping Callaspo off for nothing. Jorge de la rosa for Ramon Ramirez.. then flipped Ramirez a year later for Coco. Not bad for either team. Farnsworth and Ankiel for Tim Collins. We gave up a productive Reliever and a half-way decent bench player for a Reliever prospect. We had no idea he was going to be this good, but it has definitely worked out well. Unfortunately, we simply got a reliever out of this. $$$ for Felipe Paulino. Great find... the guy has shown promise off the scrp heap if he can be healthy. unfortunately, he's only done it for small portions within two seasons. I love Felipe and hope he works out. Zack Greinke and Yuni for Escobar, Jeffress, Cain and Odorizzi. Jeffress is gone, jury is out on Cain, Escobar is our every day SS and We have a pitching prospect that the jury is out on. At this point we basically gave up the Cy Young award winner for our SS.. I "like" the deal, but I'm not enamoured with it like a lot of people were. But it blows away all of Dayton's other moves, without a doubt. He got a good young major league player that is producing for us RIGHT NOW. It just took him 50 trades and a Cy Young piece to get it right. Yes I'm embelishing some, but only some... |
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Point being, he's done some good things at the ML level. However, his flaws are well known and more than accounted for in this thread. |
Zeke, some of those trades are irrelevant based on the talent that exchanged hands, and some of the trades you criticize were thought to be decent at the time. Also, missed the Sanchez for Guthrie trade, which is a significant "win".
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Most organization complain about the 5 things done wrong possibly outweighing the 75 things done right. Not the Royals! We argue that those 5 good things is grounds for an extension! |
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That is the ONLY trade that GMDM has made where he has gotten significantly the "better" of the other team. out of 50+. |
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I would also add: Ambiorix Burgos for Brian Bannister. The Royals got a few quality, cheap seasons out of Banny. The Mets got extradition papers. Anyway, you're not going to find many amazing trades on a GM's record when so little of worth has been sent AWAY from the team you're analyzing. This is why I say Moore gets too much criticism for his trade history. It's really not bad, considering that most of his trades involve moving low-value guys. BTW: My overall point is not that Dayton Moore is "Awesome." It's more that there are a lot of other things that deserve criticism BEFORE his trade history. Notably: 1) Stubborn belief in players long past the point of proven failure (Davies, Hochevar, Gload, etc) 2) Poor personnel choices (apparently) for high minors pitching development 3) 2010 draft (this one is looking pretty rough) 4) Refusal to look past traditional baseball stats/thought processes. Lack of flexibility in thought. |
If it werent for the Melky trade we wouldnt have gotten Guthrie, who I attribute will help the ballclub tremendously this year if he looks like he did after we got him last year.
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unless you're a Cardinals fan or something ... |
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