This season’s second meeting of Deshaun Watson and Patrick Mahomes figures to be a good one. But other than the fact that Houston is once again the underdog, Sunday’s version of Texans-Chiefs at Arrowhead Stadium in Kansas City will, in many ways, be a different matchup than the one that took place in Week 6, when the Texans won 31-24 on the road.
What exactly will be different? And what should you watch for this time around?
The Athletic’s Texans beat writer Aaron Reiss and Chiefs beat writer Nate Taylor break down the upcoming divisional-round game.
Reiss: Consensus is the Chiefs, who won six in a row to close the year, are a better team now than they were then. So, what’s changed for Kansas City since it last faced the Texans?
Taylor: Quite a bit has changed for the Chiefs since their collapse to the Tennessee Titans on Nov. 10. Most important, the Chiefs have become a disciplined defensive team, which wasn’t the case when these two teams played in October. The Chiefs defense doesn’t make big mistakes, the unit is tackling better, and takeaways are being generated. The other interesting aspect of this game is this will be the first time since the season opener that the Chiefs are expected to be fully healthy.
In their loss to the Texans, the Chiefs were without defensive lineman Chris Jones, linebacker Anthony Hitchens, left tackle Eric Fisher, left guard Andrew Wylie and receiver Sammy Watkins. Even Mahomes was nursing a left ankle injury, so the bye week was critical for the Chiefs’ many veterans.
The Texans haven’t been nearly as lucky. Receiver Will Fuller missed the wild-card game against the Bills. Everyone understands why Fuller is important to the Texans offense, but I feel most people don’t remember that he dropped a few deep passes against the Chiefs in the previous meeting. Assuming Fuller plays, how critical do you believe it is that Deshaun Watson and Fuller connect on deep passes this time around, especially since rookie free safety Juan Thornhill won’t play because of his season-ending left knee injury?
Reiss: The Chiefs ranked third in defensive efficiency against deep passes, according to Football Outsiders, so Fuller will need to make good on the few chances he might get at big gains. Same goes for DeAndre Hopkins and Kenny Stills — especially if Fuller ends up inactive.
Chunk plays will be even more important if Houston gets behind early to Kansas City, which is always a possibility for these Texans. Their 0.98 points per drive in first quarters ranked 29th during the regular season. They fell behind 17-3 to the Chiefs when these teams last played and were down 16-0 to the Bills before mounting a comeback. Those efforts were impressive, but to rely on another one — in Arrowhead in January — seems foolish. The Chiefs rank sixth in overall pass defense efficiency. But I wonder how much of an impact Thornhill’s absence will have on Kansas City’s ability to limit big plays. What do you think?
Taylor: Few people, in my estimation, are as important to the Chiefs defense as Thornhill, who is rangy, has very good ball skills and is a strong tackler in the open field. Perhaps the only players more important than Thornhill on the unit are Jones, defensive end Frank Clark and strong safety Tyrann Mathieu, whom Texans fans know all about.
The player who could replace Thornhill Sunday is Armani Watts, a second-year player who has spent most of the season on special teams. Watts was productive in college, but he’s not as fast as Thornhill in limiting big plays. This will also be Watts’ first playoff game since he sustained a season-ending injury midway through last season. I wonder if the Chiefs will play more Cover 2 than they usually do to try to limit the Texans’ big-play ability.
J.J. Watt wasn’t really a factor in the first game between the Texans and Chiefs. He recorded just two tackles and one quarterback hit. How can the Texans increase Watt’s impact Sunday?
Reiss: The Texans pass rush, in general, did little to bother Mahomes in that game, managing just one sack and two QB hits, but Watt led Houston with four pressures, according to Pro Football Focus. That’s kind of the story of this team: Without Jadeveon Clowney, it’s often up to Watt alone to cause enough havoc for another defender to run into a sack/QB hit.
During the second half of the season, while Watt was on IR because of a torn pectoral muscle, the Texans had arguably the league’s worst pass rush. Defensive coordinator Romeo Crennel had to get creative with his blitz packages to produce pressure. I imagine Crennel will review that Week 6 film in search of more inventive ways to get to Mahomes this time around. And Crennel will be very thankful he once again has Watt for this matchup.
Last weekend, in Watt’s return against the Bills, he played mostly on third downs until the fourth quarter, when Houston let him loose. His red-zone sack in the third quarter limited Buffalo to a field goal and began the Texans’ comeback. If he didn’t look quite like his old self, he was pretty close to it. That took some of the burden off a Houston secondary that’s retooled since Week 6, with the Texans having traded for starting outside corner Gareon Conley and having claimed slot corner Vernon Hargeaves III off waivers. Both are former first-round picks who are still on their rookie contracts.
The Chiefs have their own edge rusher whose recovery from injury has been important to their success. What sort of impact do you anticipate Clark having this time around? Last time, Watson spun away from him for the game-winning touchdown.
Taylor: The Chiefs acquired Clark for these types of games. He even wears the No. 55 jersey, the same number that was donned by Dee Ford before he was traded to the San Francisco 49ers after his season-altering offsides penalty in last year’s AFC Championship Game.
The two months have proven what Clark can do when he’s healthy. During that span, he recorded five sacks and 10 quarterback hits. The biggest difference is Clark has the speed to get past the opposing tackle and can build his moves off his quickness, whether with a spin move or a nifty swim move inside. Similar to many championship-caliber pass rushes, Clark benefits from Jones’ dominance in the interior on passing downs. Plus, the Chiefs acquired 17-year veteran Terrell Suggs via the waiver wire last month. Suggs has shown he can be effective on third down, too.
If defensive coordinator Steve Spagnuolo wants to support his secondary with several defenders in space to prevent deep completions, Clark will have to lead the way in terms of pressuring Watson so that the Chiefs don’t have to blitz too often.
Reiss: Spagnuolo certainly spread out his defense in Week 6, when Carlos Hyde ran into boxes featuring eight-plus defenders on just 7.7 percent of his carries during a 116-yard effort by the former Chiefs running back who had a career-best season for Houston. Hyde, whom the Texans got from Kansas City in exchange for offensive lineman Martinas Rankin, finished the regular season with 1,070 yards on a 4.4 yards-per-carry average. He ranked 13th in success rate among running backs.
Running the ball well again seems like a possibility for the Texans. The Chiefs finished the regular season ranked 29th in run defense efficiency. Why hasn’t the run defense been part of the defense’s general improvement?
Taylor: The Chiefs’ defense has improved as the season has progressed, but it still struggles at times with opposing running backs, whether on RPOs or as an additional receiver out of the backfield. But during the six-game winning streak, the Chiefs did a much better job against first-down runs.
Along with Jones not playing in the first meeting against the Texans, the Chiefs have since signed Mike Pennel, a veteran player who is hard to move in the middle of the defensive line. Two younger linemen who have improved since October are Derrick Nnadi, a second-year player, and rookie Khalen Saunders. Both probably rewatched film of the first Texans game and wanted to vomit.
Ultimately, the run defense’s issues haven’t been that costly because the offense is starting to resemble the prolific unit it was last year. The Chiefs have built leads early in their winning streak, and that has prevented most opponents from consistently running the ball. This is the greatest fear for most teams in the NFL: You get behind by two scores to Mahomes, and the balance you want to have on offense usually goes out of the window.
Reiss: That’s why the Texans have to avoid their typical slow starts. I already gave you the points-per-first-quarter-drive stat, but if you want another sense of how bad the Texans have been to begin games, consider that backup quarterback A.J. McCarron led them on their only opening-possession touchdown. If he plays in this one, put in an early request for a room upgrade at your Baltimore hotel, Nate.
There is an under-the-radar Texans offensive player who actually could make an impact in this game, though: running back Duke Johson. He averaged 6.5 yards per touch during the regular season, but his usage has been inconsistent. He had 68 total yards on three catches and three rushes versus the Bills last weekend. If Kansas City does a good job of limiting opportunities deep, Watson could look to Johnson underneath.
Taylor: This might seem strange to Texans fans, but receiver Mecole Hardman has the skills and maturity to be a real weapon for the Chiefs. The Texans already have to account for Tyreek Hill, Sammy Watkins and Travis Kelce. Hardman might be the receiver Mahomes can utilize to create highlights.
Hardman is also a weapon on special teams. He returned a kickoff for a 104-yard touchdown in the Chiefs’ regular-season finale win over the Los Angeles Chargers.
Reiss: So, what’s your prediction? I think this is a shootout for a while, but the Chiefs pull ahead in the end because Kansas City’s defense is better than the Texans’. Even with Watt on the field, Mahomes ultimately puts his team over the top to even his record against Watson, who makes a costly mistake or two more than his counterpart.
Taylor: Like you, the more I think about this game, the more I believe this has the potential to be a fun shootout for fans to watch. The Chiefs, statistically, have the better offense, and Reid usually has new wrinkles after a bye week. The Chiefs should win and get what they wanted when the season began: another shot to reach the Super Bowl by advancing to the AFC Championship Game.
|
