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Anyone know how the Bills defensive scheme compares to the Eagles?
If they are dramatically different, we might be seeing a situation where Andy can empty his bag ENTIRELY on Buffalo. Vic Fangio is Philly's DC now and has had success against Mahomes, albeit unable to beat him LMAO Quote:
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Guys, Buffalo beat us last time because Shakir and Cooper owned Conner and Johnson.
Having Josh Williams playing good ball, having Watson back and McDuffie being able to play the slot on Shakir is a HUGE difference. Then you talk about adding Omenihu to the pass rush. Then you add Pacheco and Hollywood to the offense. Wanya Morris isn’t lining up at LT this time. Kelce looked ancient in the first matchup and was possessed Saturday… They had NO ANSWER for Xavier Worthy in the first matchup, and you KNOW he will have a chip on his shoulder because of the draft. Buffalo is going to get beat by 2 scores and we will have a chance to blow them out if Pat is sharp out there. |
<blockquote class="twitter-tweet"><p lang="en" dir="ltr">The Bills defense did not slow down the Ravens or stop them at all.<br><br>The Bills defense made splash plays instead.<br><br>The equivalent of throwing haymakers while getting pummeled.<br><br>Enough connected. Gamble worked.</p>— 7️⃣1️⃣6️⃣ TJ (@TJDMCR) <a href="https://twitter.com/TJDMCR/status/1881654430401216561?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">January 21, 2025</a></blockquote> <script async src="https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js" charset="utf-8"></script>
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2nd half we shut the run down and force a fairly cold Allen to carry the offense like he has before. |
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To me, it’s going to come down to protecting the football on offense.
If KC can protect the ball and avoid turning it over, it has the answers it needs. The Bills used man coverage to slow down a KC WR corps that was led by Worthy, Hopkins - who had been in KC for just a few weeks at that point - and Smith-Schuster. Brown gives them a quick man beater they lacked before. Joe Thuney at LT has been an improvement from Wanya Morris. Caliendo at LG is not Thuney, obviously, but he has been less negatively impactful there than Morris at LT. On defense, the Chiefs have 26 sacks in the six games they have actually tried since Omenihu came back. Jaylen Watson looked like he had been plying all year last week. Those two are major impacts for the defense. Hicks has also been worked in much more on D and played well. All told, I think it’s enough - especially combined with homefield advantage that shaves a half-second off the start for the Bills’ strong OL - to flip the result. It would be sweet to send the Bills packing. Sweeter still to send them packing with a two-score win. We’ll see. |
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On one hand, 16 snaps ain’t near enough. Not when he could be our answer down inside the red zone for Mahomes. On the other, I don’t think this banged up Bills secondary can keep up with Worthy and Brown. Like, I think they might be running wide open more than we’ve seen against any team since Brown’s return. But, Buffalo loves to stay in nickel and countering that with 12 personnel is a nice option when your TE2 is Noah Gray. I think we’ll continue to see a heavy dose of 12, with the two speedsters at WR to stress the secondary. However when they do go 11, there has to be more Hopkins. Just has to be. He needs to be out there on every red zone play even if it is 12 personnel — he should take Brown’s place in those spots because his speed isn’t impactful as much down there. |
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They’ll also be getting Milano back, though I am hearing he sustained a leg injury late in the Ravens game. |
I will say that I love Watson’s return at CB but I think that’ll ultimately have a neutral effect on the game as I don’t think we will do quite as well defending the run as we did last game.
Back in November we held their backs to just 49 yards on 19 carries. I mean, don’t get me wrong, if we are that strong against the run AND we get a serious boost from having Jaylen back in the lineup.. yeah, that’s grounds for us giving them an ass beating. |
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I can't believe we just set the NFL record in that category given how it seems we were very careless with the ball earlier in the season. |
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Yep, thank you. I knew I was forgetting someone important, just couldn’t place it. Kincaid’s been quiet but he’s got the potential to be a nuisance. |
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Nick Jacobs says we didn’t deploy a spy a single time in the November matchup.
Uhhh. Did Spags pull another 2022 Cincy card where he did absolutely nothing in the regular season matchup that he knew they’d use in the playoffs? Effectively rendering it a mostly useless tape? |
I want this more for the other fanbases sadness than our happiness at this point because of all the whining.
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The Bills led the league in fewest sacks allowed. 14 sacks in 17 games. That's pretty amazing. It's a combination of their O-line, run game, and defenses being wary of Allen's runs. They don't have many negative plays.
I just reviewed the stats from last year's playoff game, and Buffalo ran 78 plays to KC's 47. We averaged 7.7 yards per play while Buffalo had 4.7. They ran for 182 yards. They were 7 for 14 on third down and 2 for 3 on fourth down. We just couldn't get off the field defensively. The total yardage was even. |
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I believe Buffalo played lots of man during the last meeting but that was before Hollywood Brown entered the lineup. With their injuries in the secondary, they're unlikely to try the same strategy. Also, Reid/Spags aren't the only coaches who may be holding back plays in the regular season. I'm sure Buffalo's coaches have several new wrinkles as well they were saving in their packages and play designs. |
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Kincaid is JAG living off his draft hype. Coleman doesn't get separation and is basically only useful in the red zone and on broken plays. They use Cooper less than we use Hopkins.
Brown and Milano are the only guys that I think can make a significant difference for them that didn't play last game. |
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So it’s basically like us getting back Jawaan Taylor, Noah Gray, Xavier Worthy, and Nick Bolton for them. While we actually get back Hollywood, Jaylen Watson and Pacheco. Those are some big movers and shakers on each side. I wouldn’t be surprised if this game looks completely different than the one earlier this year. |
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<blockquote class="twitter-tweet"><p lang="en" dir="ltr">This dude catches fish and then shows them highlights of Josh Allen <a href="https://t.co/cGqDfasuIS">pic.twitter.com/cGqDfasuIS</a></p>— Circling The Wagons Podcast (@CTWpod) <a href="https://twitter.com/CTWpod/status/1882073914068873549?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">January 22, 2025</a></blockquote> <script async src="https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js" charset="utf-8"></script>
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I can say I’d much rather play the Bills than Ravens
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They also may be without a few defensive players, although i imagine they all make miraculous recoveries |
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Everyone still feeling confident?
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The Bills played really, really well in that game. The Chiefs really ... did not. And the things the Bills were able to be successful with agianst the Chiefs' offense - namely, lining up and running more man and being more aggressive in general - are not things that can be as successful this time around. One, because the Chiefs' personnel is better suited for attacking man coverage now. Brown is a major difference maker there. Two, because the Bills are unlikely to be as healthy on the back half of their defense. Taron Johnson is dinged. Binford is in the protocol - does he play? Rapp has a serious hip injury that will be painful and tough to play through (and is a guy who is maxing out his physical ability all the time, which makes it tougher to be effective when playing through pain and injury. Three, because the healthy addition of Jaylen Watson to the Chiefs' secondary is the biggest swing in this game (and Spencer Brown and Marquise Brown are both major upgrades for these teams). |
The back end of their defense is really beat up. Worthy was open all day against them last time when they were relatively healthy.
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That would be fishy as ****. |
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I have no doubt though that those two are gonna be running wide open at times. |
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They’re totally different players with different roles in their offense. The comparison isn’t apples to apples but it doesn’t need to be. Either way, I’m not going to sit here while you argue that a rookie WR who averaged 19 YPR isn’t in the same league as X Man. Coleman had basically the same number of receptions on FORTY fewer targets. He’s been impressive. Quote:
It’s hard to remember that far back with all of these moving pieces. |
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Xavier Worthy is legitimately our WR1. He should have 1,000+ yards and 10 TDs if it weren't for Pat's struggles. Yes, Coleman isn't even in the same league as Worthy today. Most of his production has come from broken plays and is more due to Allen playing at an extremely high level this year. In terms of production, Coleman overachieved based on his actual tape. Worthy massively underachieved (though mostly not his fault). |
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Allen standing back there and waiting for the coverage to break down gives Coleman plenty of time to eventually come open. And if it doesn't happen, Allen has the size/speed to buy enough time and toss a YOLO ball for Coleman to fight for. If a team can get after Allen a bit, it'll neutralize Coleman completely. But thus far, teams haven't. Coleman would've been a complete non-factor here, IMO, but that doesn't mean he's been a disaster for Buffalo. He's been pretty productive in this bizarre sort of haphazard caveman passing game they've pieced together this year. He and Shakir will likely complement each other similarly to Rice/Worthy going forward. |
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Can you imagine Kaiir Elam trying to run with our WRs?
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Or maybe I'm giving you too much credit. I don't know. But you're the only ****ing reerun I know that could possibly watch both and not see a clear and significant difference. |
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Coleman benefits from Josh having 10 seconds to throw in the pocket. I’ve never seen him make an actual wr catch, it’s always deep passes where the defender lost him in time consuming coverage.
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Almost 1/4 of Coleman's production came in one game. He has not at all been the steady reliable player that Worthy has been, especially down the stretch.
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I'll share this here, posted it in the Bills thread:
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Nobody gives a shit about your thoughts.
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You could have just left that in the Bills thread. Nobody is surprised that you're undecided and nervous about this game.
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I never understood it at all. Sure you have Shakir doing a lot of that role, but McConkey can win deep as well. They have 2 TE’s doing the job they want Coleman to do. Shocking that everyone not named Shakir is struggling to separate which is why they got Amari Cooper. And as much as I thought Curtis Samuel could be solid for us, he’s just not been that good this year. I think there’s a fair chance that Buffalo looks back in a couple years and is mad that they not only passed on Worthy, but McConkey as well. |
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I think the Chiefs have a ton of answers for the Bills defense. I think their best rushes come from the interior, which is the strength of our entire offense if Thuney is at LG. I think their secondary can do a couple tricky things to confuse us early on but that we'll crack that case. I think Milano solves their run defense issues, but Kareem is Kareem, and he's going to get his. The Bills have a ton of answers for us as well. The strength of our defense is Spags' blitzes, and I think we may actually have an edge there -- Allen does decline against the blitz historically, but he's playing at an MVP caliber right now and making excellent decisions. They've got a run game to put us on our heels for when he passes, and our secondary is as deep as any in the league, but the Bills have seven B and B+ level passcatchers. So I really do think this comes down evenly, maybe with the slightest of leans to KC, but there are so many X factors that it's hard to be confident. If Allen puts on the cape, all bets are off. If Spags can get the blitz home, all bets are off. If Mahomes turns it over (which he hasn't at a historic level right now), all bets are off. On and on it goes. Going to be a thrilling, intense game. |
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Mahomes understands the gravity of the moment.
If KC wins and goes on to threepeat, they're immortalized. No one can say shit. Anyone trying to rate a QB higher than Mahomes will be laughed out of the room. But..... If the Bills win, and especially if they go on to win the SB...the narrative will be that Allen is now officially the greatest football player in the world. Social media and the talking heads will be insufferable. Mahomes is dropping 35+ on that weak ass D. It's up to Spags to just get a few stops. |
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They would score more if they needed to. Chiefs, 30-23. |
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What’s the point of this conversation? Quote:
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He’s looked pretty good. Great at the contested catch, strong enough to run through arm tackles for RAC, fast enough to be a legitimate threat, obvious big play ability, big body receiver ideal for quick slants, works to get open after the QB breaks from the pocket.. You don’t just average nearly 20 YPR for no reason. This season will likely be an obvious statistical outlier in that regard, but that’s incredible for a rookie. Any rookie. <iframe width="560" height="315" src="https://www.youtube.com/embed/hL920kCbqOc?si=WJ0Vlsf9wmZGlfGP" title="YouTube video player" frameborder="0" allow="accelerometer; autoplay; clipboard-write; encrypted-media; gyroscope; picture-in-picture; web-share" referrerpolicy="strict-origin-when-cross-origin" allowfullscreen></iframe> |
Assuming the Chiefs can bottle up the run, the Bills passing game is going to be where this game is decided.
Cooper -- Shakir -- Coleman -- Samuel -- Kincaid -- Knox vs McDuffie -- Watson -- Williams -- Johnson -- Reid -- Conner Our linebackers keying on Cook and Ty Johnson. Spags strategically sending blitzes. It's a tall, tall order. We're as equipped as anyone to deal with it. But it's a tall, tall order. |
Coleman has one big play since October. Otherwise, he has done jack shit since the Bills played the Seahawks on 10/27.
After missing 4 games, he has 9 catches for 149 yards and 1 TD over 6 games. 64 of those yards came on his one big play against whatever was left of Detroit’s defense. If he has a big game it will be the exception to what he’s been recently. |
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