DJ's left nut |
11-22-2019 02:21 PM |
Quote:
Originally Posted by TambaBerry
(Post 14613647)
I had .4% less pressure rate then you and Baker Mayfield tore me up lol I didn't even get a sack
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Yeah, looks like a 'fair' sack rate is 1 sack for every 3.75-4 pressures. Granted, some guys are just better at finishing a play, so every team may be a little different in that regard, but that should be a balllpark return on a leaguewide basis.
So w/ 27 total sacks last week that would take roughly 105 pressures on a 'fair' basis. There were WAY more pressures around the league last week.
Now I can't really find a way to add total pressures last but I can come up with a sort of ballpark pressure rate and multiply that by the 751 pass attempts in the league in week 1. You run those figures (understanding there's some fudge in the figurin') and you yield an overall league pressure rate of roughly 24.25%. That's not actually a bad figure but still a little low compared to the 28% pressure rate we saw in the NFL last season.
Let's just assume that last week the overall pressure rate was roughly 25%. There were 751 pass attempts so there should have been roughly 188 pressures. At 1 sack for every 4 pressure (which is conservative), there should've been 47 sacks last week. Run at at 3.75 and you're at 50. So there should've been somewhere between 47 and 50 sacks last week based on the pressure rate we showed. And 53-56 if you used last seasons actual leaguewide pressure rate of roughly 28%
So yeah, sack rate should be way up. Pressure rate seems about rate or at least in the ballpark (though potentially a tick low, that is not due to the overall figures but mostly just a couple of really bad teams in St. Joseph and Corona who had a 'sub Raiders' figure last week and are likely outliers). It's just that those pressures aren't yielding any sacks.
Now it does seem that pressure does make it difficult for QBs on a rating basis. For instance, Keenum was 6/12 for 71 yards, zero touchdowns and an INT when pressured. That's a 33.68 QB rating (or, y'know - AWFUL). His QB Rating on passes that weren't under pressure was roughly 81.4. That's actually larger than the average NFL difference last season (average 'clean' QB Rating was 99.3 and pressured was 64.6) but is close enough to the ballpark to just chalk it up to low sample sizes and/or a QB who simply isn't very good in Case Keenum so pressure may rattle him more.
Seems like the pass rush stuff MOSTLY worked. Went off at a reasonable rate. Impacted passing efficiency about like it should. It simply didn't yield the sacks it should have. There were about 60% as many sacks as there should've been.
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