Originally Posted by Bewbies (Post 8955921)

That android tablet that will dominate the iPad is right around the corner....

Originally Posted by WoodDraw (Post 8955934)

I think you and I agree on probably 95% of technology. But I'm not sure I care about the whitebox sales, especially as google continues to exert more influence over it's ecosystem.

And isn't the point of tablet sales the ecosystem? How many people in China buying off market tablets are investing in Google apps, movies, and music? It just doesn't matter.


I also think Microsoft will blow it badly when it comes to tablets. Quick, go ask anyone on the street what the difference between Windows 8, Windows 8 RT, and Windows 7, and Windows XASEDS is. They are the worst company at marketing I've ever seen.

Originally Posted by AustinChief (Post 8955952)

I disagree on the importance of white box sales. Those sales help drive down manufacturing costs across the board and also apply downward pressure on the pricing industry wide. Look at the PC industry for an example of how "white box" PCs forced brand names into pricing wars.

Originally Posted by AustinChief (Post 8955917)

The problem is that these numbers are only valid to compare against themselves. They simply don't include all the manufacturers and most importantly they don't include the "shadow" tablet market. White box tablets in China and India are selling in mass numbers but don't get counted. The last estimate I saw for 2012 was 40-50 MILLION units to ship as white box tablets. That figure is estimated to be 100-150 for 2013. No question that iPad still holds the lead as a single brand among Tier 1 tablets though. I blame MS for being so slow to the game, I think they will make a huge push (if they price it right) but I have my doubts that the push will come in time to make a significant difference this year. We'll see.

(btw, with all the numbers added in, it puts Apple down below the 30% range but it's really hard to tell how accurate the numbers really are without paying out the ass for the actual industry reports on displays.. I looked once and it was somethign crazy like $2k for the reports... regarding our bet, I think I will be close-ish but just not have enough time to catch up... was too aggressive and should have padded with another 6 months! :D)

Originally Posted by KC Fish (Post 8955979)

"Shadow" tablet market what? Ninjas?

I thought that "Others" in the graph, the second largest percentage by far at over 12%, might include something along those lines... What else would "Others" be?

Originally Posted by WoodDraw (Post 8955963)

The downward pressure is already there. The Nexus 7 and the Amazon tablets are already sold near cost. If you're expecting less than a $200 tablet, I believe you'll have to wait awhile.

The pressure right now is on the ecosystems, not the hardware.

Originally Posted by AustinChief (Post 8955999)

NINJA TABLETS WOULD RULE!!!

Others is the other Tier 1 (sometimes called Tier A) manufacturers.

Hell, in the 1st half of 2012 they had already sold 18 million white box tabs and that is JUST Chinese manufacturers, I have no clue on Indian numbers.. I'd guess (but it is purely out of my ass guessing) that they are around 10% of that.. maybe 2 million, so they certainly should hit 40 million for the year.

http://www.digitimes.com/news/a20120724PD212.html

And the "shadow market" is a proper term in the industry.

Originally Posted by WoodDraw (Post 8956003)

How many of those tie into the Play market?

Originally Posted by AustinChief (Post 8956015)

Officially? That's actually a complicated answer. What you see mostly are 3rd party Chinese market specific app stores. They work just fine for that market but obviously would have issues if you bought one there and brought it here. The biggest issue why Play isn't bigger there is due to censorship and monetizing issues.

Originally Posted by WoodDraw (Post 8956027)

Of course. They do nothing for the Google ecosystem. If they did, Google wouldn't be selling at to below cost.

IF they're doing anything, they're running Android apps and getting some advertising back. I assume they have some of the highest piracy rates in the world, and Google is going at that.

Google has become very clear in what they'll do. They'll put out open source Android code, but that's it. And they're willing to overlook the Cyanogen community. But if you distribute a product, and don't make it compatible with Google, you're done.

Counting the white market is like counting the Chinese market for knockoff NFL jerseys. It exists, sure, but does it contribute anything back home?

Originally Posted by AustinChief (Post 8956047)

Not really man, I think you are underselling the importance of driving down hardware costs. Those tablets aren't as big a part of the ecosystem ONLY because of the social/political climate there. BUT that doesn't stop them from driving down commodity costs for everyone. It's an important segment.

Either way, they are tablets over 7".. they count! (as per my bet regarding Apple market share.. which I will still probably lose because MS is a full 8 months behind my estimates on a release date... ****ers... although I still have one segment that I can't find numbers for that could put me on top... but these freakin numbers are almost impossible to find.)

Originally Posted by WoodDraw (Post 8956063)

But you have two massive companies selling tablets at cost already. What more can you do?

I bought a Nexus 7, and I got $25 free to spend with Google along with it. Hardware isn't important; it's all about the ecosystem. Google wants you invested in gmail, youtube, drive, chrome, play, etc. Do you think Google has made any money on me yet?

I mean they probably have, because I'm a long time user of their services. But they certainly haven't on the Nexus yet.

It's also a bit naive to think white manufactures have much influence over prices. You have two disruptive companies right now - ASUS and Amazon. And the first comes with Google's help; their flagships are still priced accordingly.

Originally Posted by AustinChief (Post 8956069)

ok, we are talking about two totally different things here. I am talking about driving down cost of manufacturing. As you see more and more white box sales, it becomes cheaper and cheaper to manufacture various components. So if Google sells a Nexus at cost right now for $200... soon they can sell at cost for $175 then $150...

White box manufacturing helps drive down the cost of MAKING the tablets... while also creating pressure to sell at low prices. Yes, the Nexus isn't going to drop in price unless the manufacturing cost drops.. which is exactly what increased white box production does. Along the way, it helps make sure some idiot company like Motorola thinks twice before releasing a $600 tablet again.

Originally Posted by WoodDraw (Post 8956094)

What are they driving down the costs of though? Give me an example?


I just don't think your premise makes sense. You have a handful of processors that can run modern day tablets. The S4, Tegra 3, OMAP whatever. And you have a limited supply there. Also with your screens.

With desktops and laqptops it was different, because you had a giant, open ecosystem. With phones and tablets, it's completely closed. Apple is proprietary, Microsoft is almost there, and Google supports one or maybe two each cycle, and leaves it up to the manufacturers to make it work. And you still have plenty of proprietary parts in there they have to make work. There's no "driver" system. There's no real economy of scale, outside of perhaps Apple and Samsung. And between those two, neither wants to drive down prices.

Originally Posted by AustinChief (Post 8956107)

Dude, you are WAY off on the hardware side of this. It is FAR FAR FAR more open than you think it is.

Here is a big example. Do you know what the majority of these new white box manufacturers used to make? Netbooks. They have retooled factories and the result is more competition in the assembly space. You also have more and more (and more) companies entering the display space. Check out the Taiwanese players that are ramping up... mostly because of white box sales... ChiMei Innolux is a good example. Same for processors actually, you have ZTE, HUAWEI and Lenovo making tablet procs. Hell there is even a HUGE growth right now in MIPS procs for tablets.

I'm telling you, there is a whole other world of tablets out there that is JUST AS LARGE as the stuff we hear about here and it is far more WIDE OPEN.