Chiefs might be out of Luck
RANDY COVITZ THE NFL
It’s still early in the NFL season, but it’s not soon to start revving up for the Andrew Luck Derby.
Three of the teams that have yet to win a game — the Chiefs, Miami, and Indianapolis — appear to be front-runners in the race for the first pick of the 2012 draft, most likely Luck, the Stanford quarterback.
Seattle and Denver, both 1-2, could also be in the market for franchise quarterbacks next spring, and if not Luck, than perhaps other first-round possibilities like USC’s Matt Barkley, Oklahoma’s Landry Jones, Baylor’s Robert Griffin III Boise State’s Kellen Moore and Michigan State’s Kirk Cousins.
Minnesota and St. Louis, the other 0-3 teams, would pass on a quarterback with their first-round picks because the Vikings drafted Christian Ponder in the first round this year, and the Rams took Sam Bradford with the first pick in 2010.
So let’s look at the Chiefs’ competition in the Looking for Luck Division.
•COLTS: Four-time MVP Peyton Manning is recovering from his third neck surgery in 19 months, and he’s got to be thinking about his quality of life after football.
Even if Manning, 35, returns next season, an heir apparent must be found, and Colts president Bill Polian has a history of finding franchise quarterbacks.
As Buffalo’s general manager, he brought in Jim Kelly from the defunct USFL in 1986, and Kelly led the Bills to four Super Bowls. In building the expansion Carolina Panthers in 1995, Polian’s initial first-round draft pick was Kerry Collins, who led the team to the NFC championship game a year later.
And soon after Polian’s arrival in Indianapolis, he selected Manning with the first overall pick in the 1998 draft. No team has had more playoff appearances than the Colts since, including two trips to the Super Bowl and one championship.
The only other quarterbacks on the Colts’ roster are Collins, who came out of retirement two weeks before the regular season when it was apparent Manning would not be ready to play, and Curtis Painter, a sixth-round pick in 2009.
Collins, 38, sustained a concussion in Sunday night’s loss to Pittsburgh, and Painter, who finished the game, could start Monday at Tampa Bay if Collins is not cleared. But when asked after each of his team’s first two losses whether he ever considered putting Painter in the game, coach Jim Caldwell’s response was a succinct, "No."
The Colts, by virtue of winning the AFC South, have a difficult schedule, which includes four of their next five on the road.
The only home game in that stretch? Oct. 9 vs. the Chiefs, which could be a loser-take-all.
•DOLPHINS: Chad Henne keeps putting up big numbers, including a career-high 416 yards in the season-opening loss to the Patriots. But his last two performances have been mediocre, and if the Dolphins, as expected, make a coaching change at the end of the season, the new regime is going to want its quarterback of the future.
The Dolphins, who have lost nine of their last 10 home games, could be hard-pressed to come up with many wins and could replicate their 1-15 record of 2007 which was followed by the selection of offensive tackle Jake Long with the first overall pick and Michigan teammate Henne in the second round.
The Dolphins play four of their next five on the road, including a Nov. 6 trip to Kansas City for what could play a role in who gets lucky. The only home game in that stretch is against Denver. And if draft position goes down to the final three weeks of the season, look how Miami finishes: at Buffalo, at New England, home to the Jets.
•BRONCOS: Denver offered Kyle Orton for trade during the offseason, so don’t think coach John Fox would be opposed to making a change there. Oh, he is using Tim Tebow in some red-zone packages and has Brady Quinn in the wings, but Fox inherited those guys and has no obligation to stake his coaching future to them.
It won’t get any easier for Orton because the Broncos play this week at Green Bay and the following week against San Diego before their bye. When the Broncos resume play on Oct. 23 at Miami, those fans buying billboards clamoring for Tebow could get their wish, if only for a while. The Dolphins, who are having trouble selling tickets, would love to see Tebow, an icon in Florida, play that day.
The top overall pick could come down to Jan. 1 when the Broncos finish the season at Arrowhead Stadium.
•SEAHAWKS: Keep this in mind. Seahawks coach Pete Carroll recruited USC’s Barkley and started him in 12 games as a true freshman in 2009. He also coached against Luck.
Tarvaris Jackson may be a solid change-of-pace backup but is not a franchise quarterback. Nor is backup Charlie Whitehurst.
Carroll, who coached the likes of Carson Palmer and Mark Sanchez at USC, will certainly look for an upgrade at the position in the draft, whether he has the first choice or drafts later in the opening round.
The good news for teams like the Chiefs is Seattle has a chance to win a bunch of games playing in the NFC West. Plus the Seahawks play at Cleveland and against Cincinnati during the last two weeks of October, which could put them out of Luck.
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