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DJ's left nut 01-06-2016 04:02 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Saul Good (Post 12003994)
The context of my "eternity" comment was more about salaries.

Yeah, but as salaries go up, so does the value of team control.

If FA salaries go up 30% over the next 3 seasons, the value of those first 3 years at the league minimum goes up even more.

Prison Bitch 01-06-2016 04:03 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by DJ's left nut (Post 12003987)
No dice because we have at least one real world example of how teams value draft picks.

Touiki Toussaint was the 16th overall pick for Arizona in the 2014 draft. In 2015 the Braves gave up nothing to acquire him and Bronson Arroyo. Arroyo was rehabbing from TJ surgery at the time and the Braves had no expectation of pitching him.

Instead they took on the remaining $10 million contractual obligation owed to Arroyo by the D-Backs in order to get Toussaint. And the industry savaged the D-Backs for it, BTW. It was largely seen as a steal, even though some were openly questioning if Toussaint had shown the ability to develop a 3rd pitch.

The Braves essentially traded $10 million for a first rounder when they assumed Arroyo's deal to get Toussaint.

I think $8-10 million is spot on.


I follow that. But the Kazmir signing seems to unwind much of that. There's no way Kazmir is worth.......(scratch all that, I just remembered Kaz has no comp pick)

DJ's left nut 01-06-2016 04:05 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Prison Bitch (Post 12004019)
I follow that. But the Kazmir signing seems to unwind much of that. There's no way Kazmir is worth.......(scratch all that, I just remembered Kaz has no comp pick)

That's also how Leake got what he got (no pick attached) and why Chen's market has been so slow to develop.

Prison Bitch 01-06-2016 04:08 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by DJ's left nut (Post 12004022)
That's also how Leake got what he got (no pick attached) and why Chen's market has been so slow to develop.

The union needs to get rid of this asap. It's a clear transfer of value away from them. Whatever dipshit agreed to that needs to be fired.

Saul Good 01-06-2016 04:11 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Prison Bitch (Post 12004028)
The union needs to get rid of this asap. It's a clear transfer of value away from them. Whatever dipshit agreed to that needs to be fired.

It was a concession.

Prison Bitch 01-06-2016 04:21 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Saul Good (Post 12004035)
It was a concession.

What did the players get in exchange?

DJ's left nut 01-06-2016 04:26 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Prison Bitch (Post 12004028)
The union needs to get rid of this asap. It's a clear transfer of value away from them. Whatever dipshit agreed to that needs to be fired.

They weren't really given an option.

What I don't understand is why people are more upset by this system than they were the previous system. There have been compensation picks for decades and teams have always lost draft picks for signing upper tier FAs.

The only difference is that right now the team that used to have the player can control draft pick compensation whereas under the old system there was a ranking setup. Under the old CBA, there were Type A and Type B FAs. If you signed a Type A, you lost your pick to the team you signed them away from. Generally speaking there were more Type A free agents then than there are guys that get a QO now. The list for the last year of the old system included guys like Scott Downs, Mark Ellis, Carl Pavano, Dan Wheeler and Takashi Saito - you'd lose your first round pick if you signed those guys and they had been offered arbitration (which was actually cheaper than the QO was). The risk for offering those lower level guys was less, in fact, because arbitration was tied directly to performance so you weren't guaranteed that top end salary like you are now. You could offer Mark Ellis Arb and he'd get awarded what a mediocre 2b would, not the $15 million they're guaranteed under the new QO system.

The Cardinals got Lance Lynn for a pick they got after the Rays signed Troy Percival away from them. They'd picked up Percival off the scrap heap in June after he'd been away from baseball for a season. The Elias rankings system simply had screwiness all throughout it.

More teams used to lose picks than they do now. More players used to get offered arb than they get QOs now. It's not the new CBA that's doing this, it's the fact that league minimum salaries haven't gone up nearly as fast as FA salaries have and as a result, team control is now 10 times more important than it used to be.

It gets back to the same old saw - revenue disparity.

The MLBPA has nobody to blame here unless they're willing to just tell small market teams to **** off and die.

mikeyis4dcats. 01-06-2016 04:27 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by C3HIEF3S (Post 12004008)
|20|10|5|4| ?

2

C3HIEF3S 01-06-2016 04:33 PM

Gordo press conference live now:
http://m.royals.mlb.com/kc/video/v537668483

lewdog 01-06-2016 04:47 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by C3HIEF3S (Post 12004074)
Gordo press conference live now:
http://m.royals.mlb.com/kc/video/v537668483

Watching!

CaliforniaChief 01-06-2016 04:53 PM

I love Alex in ways a straight, married man usually wouldn't love another man. Nice presser.

siberian khatru 01-06-2016 04:54 PM

Alex looked very happy, as he should be.

The repartee between Moore and McCullough at the end was funny.

lewdog 01-06-2016 04:55 PM

Which one of you bought him lunch today???

ROFL

C3HIEF3S 01-06-2016 04:57 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by lewdog (Post 12004105)
Which one of you bought him lunch today???

ROFL

That's just hilarious. LMAO
<blockquote class="twitter-tweet" lang="en"><p lang="en" dir="ltr">A fan picked up Alex Gordon&#39;s tab at lunch the day he signed a $72 million deal. Kansas Citians taking that generosity thing to a new level.</p>&mdash; Danny Parkins (@DannyParkins) <a href="https://twitter.com/DannyParkins/status/684870304196247552">January 6, 2016</a></blockquote>
<script async src="//platform.twitter.com/widgets.js" charset="utf-8"></script>

Prison Bitch 01-06-2016 06:24 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by DJ's left nut (Post 12003709)
Don't love it. That said, at least there's not a ton of risk in it.

There are few guys who are more 'sure bets' than Leake. That's not to say he's good - it's to say that you know pretty much exactly what you'll be getting out of him; a 4th starter that's going to give you about 2 WAR and 200 innings. Blah.

To me, they paid $15 million/season for a $12 million/season pitcher. It's an overpay, but one where I suspect they'll at least get solid production from him for the length of the deal and he's young enough that by the last 2 years of that deal, it's probably going to be below market given where salaries are trending.

Samardzija's is worse in that there's a better than average chance that he's a bullpen quality pitcher. His ceiling his higher than Leake's but man that floor is truly a crash point. I think Kazmir's is worse as well as I just don't see him holding up; the guy is a ticking timebomb, IMO.

I also look at the Cubs deal to Heyward that amounts to a 3 yr/78 million deal if/when he exercises his opt out as being absolutely insane. He's essentially the exact same player as Gordon and they just gave him $8 million more/season. Admittedly, its hard for me to be objective there, but that deal is just !@#$ing crazy to me.

There are some other nutty ones in there, but not as long term. Seriously, how the hell did Mike Pelfrey convince a team to give him 2/$16 million?


I don't have any problem with Leake. He is being fairly paid, because FA is an efficient system where players and teams have tons of info and data and even j side info. And since they don't always take the highest offer, we know that "grey zone" (zone of possible agreement) is quite efficient.


So it's not Leake or the terms. It's why they signed a SP anyway. The Cards are about 5th from the bottom of teams that need SP. Its a mis-allocation. You create way more value getting Holliday out of LF than the marginal value another SP gives you.


Of course, there's a reason they're running a perennial playoff contender while I'm building Legos with my toddler.


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