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-   -   Chiefs We need to extend Alex Smith (https://chiefsplanet.com/BB/showthread.php?t=280391)

Anyong Bluth 01-08-2014 07:54 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by mschiefs1984 (Post 10353828)
THIS

Smith made mistakes no doubt about it. Luck made more.

In this "offensive league" 2 games the entire season had the losing team over 40 points. That's less the 1% of the games. There are 256 NFL games in the season. 2/256 is 0.008% and I rounded up. That's how often teams lose putting up 40 points.

Alex Smith is the first QB in the history of the NFL to lose a playoff game throwing 4tds with no picks. Again less then 1% of the time.

Alex Smith proved he is the right QB for this team going forward. Build around him. But the time is now to extend him.
Here's the breakdown:

Quote:

According to ESPN Stats & Information, the Colts had just a
3.6 percent chance of winning the game when they trailed 31-10 at halftime. That dropped to 0.9 percent when the Chiefs took a 38-10 lead with 13:39 left in the third quarter.

htismaqe 01-08-2014 07:59 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by milkman (Post 10354677)
If it was just this one game, I would agree with you here.

As I watched Smith under Harbaugh, I saw a mediocre, albeit efficient game manager, whose conservative approach could best described as playing scared.

He showed a flash of what he was capable of in that Saints playoff game, which I said at time might be the spark to him playing to his franchise potential.
But that was his only flash in those 2 years.

Through the first half of this season, I saw the same guy.
However, over the latter stages of this season, he flashed more.
There were 4 or 5 games after the bye where I, and others who shared my same opinion of Smith, said that this Smith is a QB we can win.

What we saw on Saturday, I believe, the evolution process of Smith from the scared, risk averse game manager to the confident passer with playmaking ability that Reid envisioned when they traded for him.

I just don't believe that Reid allows him to regress.
While I absolutely agree with you, the thread is concerning giving him an extension.

He finished the season with his best game not only of the season but of his CAREER.

He's not going to sign for peanuts, he's going to garner a pretty sizable contract. That's my concern.

Anyong Bluth 01-08-2014 08:11 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by ChiefsandO'sfan (Post 10354017)
Just look's like Gray slowed up around the 32 yard line.
The DB also chips him, so he didn't get a free release. Not a major chuck, but it's definitely going to slow him down just a bit- like maybe even a step or 2, and Alex and Gray had never run that play together.

You can argue about the validity of if Gray did or did not slow it down a bit, but if he gets a free release, he probably is in perfect position to catch it.

Also notice how early he starts looking back for the ball. Having his head and shoulders partially turned would also slow him down a bit.

Lastly, he's not a full time receiver- and probably not experienced with laying out for a catch like that. It's not certain he'd come up with it and be able to secure the ball going to the ground, but as a RB, that instinct isn't ingrained in him.

htismaqe 01-08-2014 08:15 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by Anyong Bluth (Post 10354725)
The DB also chips him, so he didn't get a free release. Not a major chuck, but it's definitely going to slow him down just a bit- like maybe even a step or 2, and Alex and Gray had never run that play together.

You can argue about the validity of if Gray did or did not slow it down a bit, but if he gets a free release, he probably is in perfect position to catch it.

Also notice how early he starts looking back for the ball. Having his head and shoulders partially turned would also slow him down a bit.

Lastly, he's not a full time receiver- and probably not experienced with laying out for a catch like that. It's not certain he'd come up with it and be able to secure the ball going to the ground, but as a RB, that instinct isn't ingrained in him.
The bottom line is that Grey is the 3rd string RB. He gets no snaps in practice most of the season, let alone leading up to a playoff game.

For a play that depends completely on timing, it's not a surprise it didn't connect.

Anyong Bluth 01-08-2014 08:16 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by milkman (Post 10354677)
If it was just this one game, I would agree with you here.

As I watched Smith under Harbaugh, I saw a mediocre, albeit efficient game manager, whose conservative approach could best described as playing scared.

He showed a flash of what he was capable of in that Saints playoff game, which I said at time might be the spark to him playing to his franchise potential.
But that was his only flash in those 2 years.

Through the first half of this season, I saw the same guy.
However, over the latter stages of this season, he flashed more.
There were 4 or 5 games after the bye where I, and others who shared my same opinion of Smith, said that this Smith is a QB we can win.

What we saw on Saturday, I believe, the evolution process of Smith from the scared, risk averse game manager to the confident passer with playmaking ability that Reid envisioned when they traded for him.

I just don't believe that Reid allows him to regress.
Having Reid to coach him at the QB position is probably one of the biggest reasons why I have such optimism that his play on Saturday won't be just an aberration. Sure, he'll probably still have inconsistent games, and I don't think anyone is setting the bar at 4 tds a game, but the ability to make plays all over the field including taking his shots down field.

milkman 01-08-2014 08:32 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by htismaqe (Post 10354718)
While I absolutely agree with you, the thread is concerning giving him an extension.

He finished the season with his best game not only of the season but of his CAREER.

He's not going to sign for peanuts, he's going to garner a pretty sizable contract. That's my concern.
The problem, as I see it, is that you have to weigh your risks.

Do you extend now, of wait another year?

If what we've seen over the latter half of the season, and in the playoff game is the preview, then waiting is going to cost is hell of a lot more.

I think an extension now is worth the risk.

Probably shorter, less expensive, and easier to get out of.

htismaqe 01-08-2014 08:39 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by milkman (Post 10354745)
The problem, as I see it, is that you have to weigh your risks.

Do you extend now, of wait another year?

If what we've seen over the latter half of the season, and in the playoff game is the preview, then waiting is going to cost is hell of a lot more.

I think an extension now is worth the risk.

Probably shorter, less expensive, and easier to get out of.
Unfortunately, I don't share your optimism. The reason for having a QB like Smith is that you get 80% of a Drew Brees for 50% of the price. He needs pieces around him, a lot of pieces.

Anyong Bluth 01-08-2014 08:42 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by milkman (Post 10354745)
The problem, as I see it, is that you have to weigh your risks.

Do you extend now, of wait another year?

If what we've seen over the latter half of the season, and in the playoff game is the preview, then waiting is going to cost is hell of a lot more.

I think an extension now is worth the risk.

Probably shorter, less expensive, and easier to get out of.
You'll have to pay more for a shorter extension vs say a 5 year deal. I'd love if what we saw from him in the final 3rd of the season and the playoff game is par for the course for the next 4-6 years, and Dorsey and Reid were so certain that he will play at a near pro bowl level to actually sign him up for a long term deal.

Of course a large contingent would be irate at locking him in for like 4-5 years, but it would be a windfall down the road when we have him in a very cap friendly number and a lot more room to work with in cap space.

The NFL revenue is simply jumping hand over fist, and 1 thing that is certain is there's no way QB contracts aren't going to take a leap over the next 3-5 years!

warrior 01-08-2014 08:46 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by milkman (Post 10354745)
The problem, as I see it, is that you have to weigh your risks.

Do you extend now, of wait another year?

If what we've seen over the latter half of the season, and in the playoff game is the preview, then waiting is going to cost is hell of a lot more.

I think an extension now is worth the risk.

Probably shorter, less expensive, and easier to get out of.


Agreed- sign him now it will cost more next year--like it or not this is our QB going foreward and I think he's not only a smart choice but a good one.

splatbass 01-08-2014 08:49 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by htismaqe (Post 10354718)

He's not going to sign for peanuts, he's going to garner a pretty sizable contract. That's my concern.
Is it your money? I'll never understand why people act like player salaries come out of their own pockets. Dorsey knows how to handle the cap, it will be ok.

htismaqe 01-08-2014 08:57 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by splatbass (Post 10354781)
Is it your money? I'll never understand why people act like player salaries come out of their own pockets. Dorsey knows how to handle the cap, it will be ok.
I don't care how much he makes for himself. But it does have cap ramifications.

I'm guessing you've never seen the numbers on how many Super Bowls are won by QBs on their 2nd or 3rd contracts?

ShowtimeSBMVP 01-08-2014 09:11 AM
https://pbs.twimg.com/media/BdbNRemCcAA_tIv.jpg

Just gonna put this here. 3rd and goal play. With Charles it's a TD With Davis it's a FG.

splatbass 01-08-2014 09:13 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by htismaqe (Post 10354788)
I don't care how much he makes for himself. But it does have cap ramifications.

I'm guessing you've never seen the numbers on how many Super Bowls are won by QBs on their 2nd or 3rd contracts?
I don't care. It is Dorsey's job to manage the cap, and I'm confident he can do it without your help. ;)

htismaqe 01-08-2014 09:16 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by splatbass (Post 10354817)
I don't care. It is Dorsey's job to manage the cap, and I'm confident he can do it without your help. ;)
I'm hopeful he can do it. Job #1 is not giving Alex Smith a massive contract.

I'm not confident in anybody, or anything, associated with the Kansas City Chiefs.

ShowtimeSBMVP 01-08-2014 09:18 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by htismaqe (Post 10354829)
I'm hopeful he can do it. Job #1 is not giving Alex Smith a massive contract.

I'm not confident in anybody, or anything, associated with the Kansas City Chiefs.
Alex is gonna get a Jay Cutler deal.


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