| Anyong Bluth |
01-11-2016 06:34 PM |
Quote:
Originally Posted by Prison Bitch
(Post 12019166)
Steamer WAR predictions for 2016 out today:
Cleve 85
White Sux 81
Royals 79
Tigers 79
Twinks 78
There are 54 wins still out on the FA market. If you bought the top guy at each spot, you'd end up with 80 wins. Or a Royals team, only for like $250M
-assuming we get another starter, which we will, you can add 1-3 wins for that for pretty much any guy not named Guthrie
|
Ah, yes, much ado about nothing.
The "projections"- any of them, worked out so well last year, why not just rinse and repeat for 2016.
Square peg, round hole.
To start with, the variance already clusters 90% of the teams within about a 10 game difference, so the significance of their modeling is rather arbitrary. It's almost the equivalent of having a poll result of A at 45% & B at 55% with a margin of error of +/- 20 points.
Sure, you spit out a number, and based it upon some "data", but that doesn't ensure it's reliability.
Which brings us to the second point. Clearly, whatever the Royals are doing in terms of team makeup and approach to the game is unaccounted for in part of how they came up with their formula.
Last year, the Royals blew every wins prediction out of the water, and let's not forget to factor in September. The team was so far ahead in the standings and even admitted to struggling with being bored and remaining motivated while waiting for the playoffs to get under way. Otherwise, it's safe to say that they would have won over 100 games.
I'm not building up their talent for a comparison basis, but to illustrate just how totally off the expected wins predictions are, and even more so when they cluster most teams together, it's a virtually insignificant exercise. |
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