That call man. So awesome

All I can say to that is: go put $ on it. "Our friends in the desert", as Brent Musberger so aptly puts it, have access to everything you & I don't and they don't put out lines people can game.

I hope they're wrong again but I wouldn't dare bet against them. As of last Oct 31 we are middle of the pack in the futures
http://www.vegasinsider.com/mlb/odds/futures/

Vegas doesn't pick winners, they set the line to hedge their bet by trying to get a 50/50 split on each side. That's in part based upon public perception.

Their "inside info" comes into play when they set a line that draws heavy action because it seems like a "lock".

If the odds are 5:1 on the Royals, how much action do you think they're going to take in? Compare it to if you have 40:1 odds. You're going to end up with more longshot bets for which they may have to pay out on a single team, but keep the everything on the other 29 teams.

When you say, I wouldn't bet against Vegas, all you're really saying is I wouldn't bet at all. Period.

Did Vegas pick KC last year?

I'd advise you not taking betting tips from a 90 year old broadcaster.

It is a bit of a misnomer that Vegas wants bets to be 50/50. Sometimes they gamble as well. Here is some information from the Wynn Sports book.

Wynn sportsbook director Johnny Avello told ESPN that in Vegas alone, an estimated $10 million swung from one side to the other with the late touchdown by the Tigers.

"It was enormous for us," said Ed Salmons, race and sportsbook manager for the Westgate Superbook. "It's just like the Super Bowl. You want the favorite to win because there are a lot of underdog bets on the money line, but you don't want them to cover the spread. So it worked out perfectly for us."

Salmons said the late Clemson touchdown was worth well more than $100,000 to the positive for his sportsbook.




I read a couple of articles yesterday (I can't find them) that said 80% of the bets at a couple of casinos were coming in for 'Bama to cover. The casinos weren't raising the line trying to get more money on Clemson.

... and that's where they employ the bookies to be on top of things.
Yes, a line doesn't just move to balance 50/50- that's where the book taps into their secret sauce. How much a line moves is a good indication of the book's confidence level of the opening line.

It's a lot easier to find diamond picks in more obscure games if you know lower tier college football or basketball. The sportsbooks also don't see a ton of action on them so it's not a position where they often get overexposed.

Super Bowl Sunday is the biggest betting day of the year. Why? Because every Tom, Dick, and Harry toss $$$ at hunch bets. Vegas loves all the fish, even if they have to pay out to a few donkeys.

I intend to do exactly that. Last summer I put $50 at 40:1 on the Chiefs to win the Super Bowl. If I win that $2000, I'll put it all on the Royals to win at least 81 games.

I wouldn't even bother. This concept (that a house can/does take a position) has been explained multiple times on this board, but it never sinks in. It's simply no match for the quick meme "Vegas only wants half the public" rejoinder, which cannot ever die no matter how false it is in actuality.

I'm not going to talk about gambling. What am I going to talk about?

It's a DI Special - I'm going to talk about a kid who is 4-5 years away from playing in the majors!

I've heard the royals connected to Cuban phenom Lazarito in the past few days. He has been declared a free agent and is not subject to bonus pool limitations like normal Latin America prospects.

KC, due to the amount it spent signing LA players in 2015, is facing limits on what it can spend moving forward as a result. So it might make sense for them to spend big on Lazarito. They'd pay a dollar-for-dollar tax on him but would face no worse penalty, really, than if they didn't sign him.

Why should they consider it? Well, Lazarito is the equivalent of a top 5 draft pick. He's a 5-tool corner OF, just 16, who is very physically mature for his age and has crazy athleticism and explosiveness. He's a special talent, but carries major risk like all prospects. Will be interesting to see where he lands.

Another note: Italian youngster Marten Gasparini has drawn some rave reviews from BA scouting hounds, who ranked him in KC's top 10. He's probably not going to stick at SS due to his glove, but he profiles nicely as a future CF type with great speed.

His tools have been favorably compared to Mondesi's, and Mondesi has some of the best tools in the minors.

Perhaps. But what has been definitively proven to be false in recent years are the predictions that the Vegas insiders make regarding the number of games the Royals will win in the regular season.

It's foolish to say "they know more than we do about this" when they consistently demonstrate the opposite.

I can respect that. Putting real $ on something is way better than lecturing someone that they're wrong. Vegas is no different from stock market analysts or any other prognosticator - they have to rely on underlying fundamental data and adjust from there. I suspect they'll look at the 80 wins and bump it 1-2 games.

thank you Duncan for talking about playing baseball, or, players that play baseball instead of gambling on baseball. Needs to be a "gambling" thread so it won't clutter up this baseball thread.

Thanks for the info and back to béisbol talk!

Last thing I'll say about it, because I agree with your sentiment above.

Mainly, the majority of people who post in this thread obviously watch the Royals A LOT more than John Q Public, and have a reasonably better idea of how they shape up among especially the division and to a degree the rest of the league. I know there's a few that posters here and the GDTs that I would buy their predictions over pretty much anyone in the media.

It's no different than the utter nonsense and total bullshit "insider info" 99% of the guys reported with respect to Gordon, FA, and his likelihood of remaining with KC.
Way too much throwing crap at the wall and see if it sticks.

@Buster_ESPN: Wei-Yin Chen's deal with the Marlins is for five years, with a sixth-year vesting option.

<blockquote class="twitter-tweet" lang="en"><p lang="en" dir="ltr">Gerardo Parra has signed with <a href="https://twitter.com/hashtag/Rockies?src=hash">#Rockies</a> for 3 years and $26 million, according to report from my friend <a href="https://twitter.com/WilmerReina">@WilmerReina</a>.</p>&mdash; Jon Morosi (@jonmorosi) <a href="https://twitter.com/jonmorosi/status/686971408253988864">January 12, 2016</a></blockquote>
<script async src="//platform.twitter.com/widgets.js" charset="utf-8"></script>


Little cheaper than I was expecting he would get. Good deal for the Rocks, IMO.