Who says there will be more inflation? The TV contracts are all set and in force for these deals. I'm predicting this is the ceiling outside of standard 3-5% raises

The CBA expires at the end of the year, and the obvious spot of contention will be the steep decline in player portion of revenues. Salaries are going to keep rising.

Duncan:

What are your thoughts on the Royals with the signing of Cain (along with the arbitrations signings of Dyson, et al) and the inking of Ian Kennedy?

I do. Rany's been good, and understandably not as good now that he's significantly dialed down on the amount of time he devotes to following and writing on baseball. The guy's a dermatologist with a full-time practice and 2 offices, and little kids now. Other shit in life has dictated his lesser relevance, obviously, and he's been man enough to eat major humble pie for his original stance on the Shields / Davis trade for Myers. But, EVERYONE was coming out in criticism of the move and claiming Dayton made a desperate move out of fear of being fired.
Dayton laughed last and laughed hardest with a back to back World Series and a Championship ring along with Yost, who, again, EVERYBODY said was a doofus manager with no business being a major league skipper.

Ultimately, you know who cares about Rany's opinion? The Cubs new front office. The same one that came over from Boston and managed to fill their farm system with tons of young talent and are looking at being a legitimate contender for the WS next year. They interviewed him and offered him a job. If not for a new family with little kids and the a drastic paycut in giving up his medical practice, he would be part of one of the most respected front offices currently in baseball.

This is true - but only to the extent the depressed player portion of revenues is something that isn't caused by debt service on stadiums and team purchases. If it is, the union will have trouble grabbing that chunk.

Why? Under that rationale, owners would just shield as much revenue as possible by purchasing hard assets. That only benefits the owners.

My thoughts are that the Cain deal is good for both sides. Year 2 is probably less than he gets in arb if he has another top 3 MVP finish, but more than he gets if he blows a hammy early in the year or regresses with the bat.

I'm pleased with the Kennedy signing. Think it makes this team better on day 1 of the season than a year ago.


Yeah. Rany is a bright baseball guy who was wrong and admitted it.

It's hard to get invited into the baseball community when you've established yourself as a legitimate professional in a real field. Hard to avoid a pay cut...

Yet more evidence that the $8 million/WAR calculus is a bad one.

Just another contract that actually fits when you run it through the $6 million/WAR analysis.

I'm not sure I follow...

Royals sign Cain to a 2 year contract to avoid arbitration.

If Chris Davis at $23 million is a 'bargain' according to the $8.4 Million/WAR rule, it's more proof that the $8.4 million/WAR rule is silly.

A 1 WAR player isn't worth $8 million. A 9 WAR player isn't worth $75 million (Trout will not get that much in AAV).

Neither end of this scale ever works so why do we actually put any stock in the scale? Using it to justify an egregious overpay for a ridiculously flawed player is just absurd.

I was thinking that using the $6m number made the contract look dumb whereas the $8m number makes it look reasonable. I haven't spent any time analyzing whether or not those numbers are accurate, nor do I care to. I figure it's a good place to start in terms of a back of the napkin contract value analysis, though.

The 6 per figure requires that he managed 3.8 WAR/season for the life of the deal.

You've just made Chris Davis one of the top 10 highest paid position players in terms of AAV in all of baseball. I'd say expecting just a shade under 4 WAR/season is pretty fair.

You're not even asking him to hit 3/season to consider it a below market deal via the 8.4 analysis. To put that in perspective, Adam Lind managed 3.1 WAR last season and is a lefty hitter who plays 1b. Lucas Duda managed 2.99; another defensively limited lefty swinging 1b who's primary attribute is power.

If Chris Davis spends the next 7 years being a worse player than Lucas Duda and Adam Lind, that is NOT a good use of $23 million/season.

Dumb ass question from Big League Stew on Twitter.

https://twitter.com/bigleaguestew/st...33031756906496

Rosenthal:

Sources: #Tigers close to six-year deal with free-agent outfielder Justin Upton.