I'm not convinced the Royals are going to be that bad after 2017.
Cains is replaced by Starling
Moose is replaced by Dozier
Escabar is replaced by Mondesi

Gordon and Perez will still be here.
Ventura, Kennedy, Zimmer, and Almonte are here.

You need RF, 1st, and 2nd. Hopefully, there are guys in the minors to fill those spots.

You're taking a LOT on faith.

Almonte needs to develop at least one more consistent off-speed pitch to be a starter; a high hurdle at this level. Zimmer needs to manage to stay healthy. Gordon will be into his decline years as will Perez given his position and workload. Hunter Dozier is a guy who's never managed an OPS above .650 in AA despite never being significantly under-aged for his level - I'd hold off on annointing him as a surefire replacement for an All-Star level player.

Starling's a fascinating player but again, you're talking about a kid that's still never truly had a good full season now 4 years into his professional career. The talent appears to be there but you're asking him to replace a truly elite CFer. Even if he does fulfill that ability, you're setting the bar remarkably high for him.

Mondesi is an exceptional talent but still hasn't ever had a truly standout season (though unlike Dozier, I don't really care because he's just so young). He's a guy that could develop into a true upgrade on Escobar but I'd say that's no better than a 50/50 proposition given just how far away he is right now.

Now I'm not saying some of those things can't occur, but all of them absolutely will not.

Yeah, Kinsler. Fixed.

I admit, I am an optimist.

Upton is proj 3.4 wins on Steamer, edging them slightly past us at 33.2-32.7 (Upton's replacement option was essentially worthless, so it's all him). Now its

Cleve: 86
Det, KC, White Sux 81
Twinks 78

If that was at all accurate then signing Upton was prob necessary for Detroit to have a chance to contend.

What's hilarious is they can sign these bigger name guys to $100+ million contracts, but continue to have a pitiful bullpen, weak rotational pitching in their back end, and mediocre defense. Now, they’re not Cleveland level defense bad, but they seem to be of the mindset of stacking their order, having 2 ace pitchers, and band aid the rest.
Baseball is such a streaky game, it's my opinion that a team of high quality guys is going to payoff as opposed to having 3 or 4 megastars. Over 162 games it's not feasible to have to rely on a few guys to carry you day in and day out.
The Royals have a lot of good "solid" players and often times a different guy did step up and help the team when another guy or guys had an off night.

All the talk about the Mets having 4 ace quality starters couldn't match a Royals team that had no real weakness. Our D, and bullpen were outstanding, but overall everything the team did in every aspect of the game was mostly average to good, but more importantly there was no weak link in the chain.

You're making some huge assumptions that any of those guys will be good.
I think the recent success of having several home-grown guys turn out so well recent years is making people think it happens so easily all the time.

Eh, it works both ways.

The Marlins that knocked off the Yankees several years ago were the best example I can recall of a team that was sound but not spectacular across the board. The Red Sox teams in the mid 2000s, OTOH, had holes everywhere and a spotty bullpen but won with a killer middle of the order and a couple of aces.

Both approaches works so you have to build around what you have. The Tigers have too many holes to just fill them all with sound guys so they're trying to build around a couple of stars.

It might work. It probably won't. But you can say that about every team and every approach - nobody's a better bet than the field in baseball.

I don't remember Dayton Moore's exact quote but, he wants the Royals to be good for the long haul. Not just a few years. I think he has a plan to feed the major league team with rookies to keep them winning. Maybe not the World Series every year but, they'll never be the door mats they used to be.

A yearly payroll off 110-125 mil doesnt hurt either.

I'm putting myself on the 60-Day Message Board DL. See you dudes in a couple months for Spring Training.

https://media.giphy.com/media/yoJC2t...cg8M/giphy.gif

Not getting boned in the competitive balance draft every year would help.

ICYMI, Rustin Dodd is the Star's new Royals beat writer. He's leaving the Beaker beat.

Of all things related to the Royals minor league team, I do feel confident saying Mondesi's floor is Escobar's current level of contribution: Great defensive player whose offense is driven by average year to year but is just OK for the position.

He's going to be a quality big-league regular even if he's a .250 hitter because of his defense and base running. Obviously, there is more in the tank there because of his tools.

Only thing I'd quibble with is that I'd have to give Starling credit for having a good minor league season in 2015, his first since his first season in the minors. He OPS'd .750ish in his first go at AA while playing excellent defense and then performed well in the Fall League.

It will be interesting to see if he can build on that in 2016. His 2015 actually compares very closely with what George Springer did the year before he broke out, after struggling in years prior.

Like I said - Starling is intriguing, but if not for his draft position would his 2015 season do anything to make you take pause? Probably not.

You're absolutely correct that 2016 will likely tell the tale on him - but 2016 ain't here yet so that's why I'm saying that he was putting a lot on pure faith. Starling needs to have that breakout minor league season before I think you can consider him even a major league regular, let alone one of the most valuable CFers in the game.

His draft position supports the idea that the talent is there and his 2015 season suggests that maybe he's not completely lost, but he was damn near shipped away for a bag of magic beans after another underwhelming season in 2014 and a disastrous AFL stint because the Royals front office thought he was a bust.

So one seasons that was good but not great in AA (in the notoriously hitter-friendly Texas League, no less) and now we're penciling him in as a Cain replacement? And really, if the Texas League isn't the most hitter-friendly league in all of professional baseball, the PCL is - even Omaha may not give you a great idea of what he has. Obviously he can only play where his teams are situated, but man you'd like to get him a lap through the International League to get a better feel. The Carolina League is usually a pretty fair league but it took him a 2nd pass at it as a 22 yr old in A+ to finally get it figured out.

In the AFL, against the most advanced pitching he's faced (and in yet another hitter friendly environment), he struck out 25 times to only 6 walks in his 90 PAs. That's gotta make you nervous, especially in light of the 30-3 ratio over 85 PAs he put up in the AFL in 2014.

Starling has tools and maybe the breakout will come, but folks need to pump the brakes on the kid. There are some pretty substantial holes in his game still and until that breakout actually happens, I'd stand down on counting on him as much more than a 4th OFer, let alone an All-Star caliber player.