Quote:
Originally Posted by frozenchief
(Post 14929153)
Thanks for questions and reading posts and replying. I think my position started to develop when I got football Outsiders 2010 edition. They really reviewed evidence and talked about what worked and what didn’t. Each year, they’re the best statistical analysis of the NFL. The problem, though, is that statistics usually deals with percentages. So should a coach go for it on 4th down? If there are less than 3 yards to go, or if they are inside the opponents 45, the answer is almost always “yes”.
If a coach should go for it on 4th down and they do but fail, most fans boo the coach. “He’s an idiot.” Maybe he had a 90% chance of making it. That by necessity means 1 out of 10 chances will fail. Those who don’t understand math will boo the choice because it did not work. ThE value of a decision, though, is not if it works but what went into the decision. In the above decision, going for it is the right decision irrespective of whether yOu make it. Going for it will add more EPA than not.
In hE same way, the choice tto run the ball in today’s NFL is like punting inside the opponent’s 35 yard line. Sure, it’s a choice but it ultimately costs you points. Does this mean you never run? No, but would you draft a punter? There are tImes to punt. Doesn’t mean you draft a punter. Thre are times to run. Doesn’t mean you draft an RB, especially in the first round. Saying this guy is BPA is like saying a punter is BPA, in my opinion. Doesn’t mean we don’t need a RB. Doesn’t mean he won’t help. But even if we do not sign him to a second year contract, we will spend a ton on him as a first round draft choice under the current salary scale. And that is money we can put to someone who plays a position that, as a whole, generates more EPA.
I fully recognize most will disagree with me. And I’ve had a couple of drinks after a very frustrating week, so I undoubtedly come across stronger than I realize. But this is a waste of a draft pick to me. We could have gotten better value even in
Other positions if for no other reason than RBs are among the least valuable players anymore in terms of value added. CMC ran for thousands of yards. How many games did Carolina win? How many times was his play the difference? His draft in such a high place was a mistake. A second contract at that level was a mistake. I don’t want to see KC lose a valuable draft pick for production that can come far more cheaply.
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Once again, thanks for the response enjoy the thought out analysis. When you mention going for it on 4th down, I immediately thought of the high school coach in I think it's Arkansas that goes for it on 4th always. Granted it is high school and if I remember correctly it might be a private school so chances are they are probably getting some elite athletes which at that level can overcome a lot.
I also think back to the Ravens game and some of the calls that Harbaugh made and then backed it up with analytics afterward in the post game press conference. Not going back to break it all down, but my mind says there were some questionable decisions, maybe the numbers back him up, but the situation also has to come into play. Did that affect the outcome, hard to tell, cause we have Mahomes, but I think failing on some of those calls can certainly take the wind out of the players sails and shift momentum because they aren't just another play, emotions come into play, and I believe momentum is real....some don't. See 4th quarter of the Super Bowl.
Sucks you had a frustrating week, and then get kicked in the balls here, but things are looking up, where I'm at its Friday already which means, more drinks tomorrow..errrr TODAY and we have a couple more picks you can come on here and rile people up!!
I'll agree with CMC picked just based on where he was picked, along with Barkley, and Elliot, but with no sports, I'm going to be excited about CEH and binge watch some more highlights. And for the record, I hope you are wrong.....because Chiefs.
Not to give people more ammo to fire upon you, and I don't know if you're big draft breakdown guy, but did you have names, not just positions that you identified that you would have taken? Don't think saying trade down is really fair, considering we took a running back, I assume they were probably trying to do that but couldn't find a partner.
Anyway, appreciate your time, and your tact, I will say that I saw your post about jury selection and not picking female nurses so I'm going to guess you are a lawyer. I am always amazed at some of the people that get selected for a jury and some of the people I've been on juries with. Honestly I think I would rather eat a bullet if I ever did anything where I have to go on trial with the possibility of prison time rather than have some of the dolts I have served with. Kinda like politics you just have to play to there feelings....facts, what facts. I'm one of those weird people that absolutely loves jury duty. I've told people that if I'm poor in retirement and need free entertainment I would love to go to the courthouse and sit in on cases. I was on Federal jury duty one time when I lived in Kansas City and got called when the Ford Motor Company overtime fraud (mail and I believe wire) came up for trial. Didn't make the jury, but I was working a second shift job at the time so I showed up for probably the first week or so of testimony, I would have to leave when they broke for lunch. I was like a celebrity when I would show up and on breaks, the defendants would give me the head nod and big smiles, one side or the other would come back to me and ask my opinion on how things were going and what my thoughts were.
It was interesting. Funny thing was, during jury selection they made everyone who had raised their hand that knew anything about the case go one by one back into chambers get questioned both sides and the judge. Crazy long voir dire! I was in my early 20's at the time, worked a manufacturing job with overtime just like this case. When the judge asked me what I knew about the case I said I had read about it in the paper and my co-workers and I had talked about it. When he asked what we talked about, with a straight face I said we talked about if we could get our boss to put us in for some fake overtime like they were accused of, if we kicked him back some money like this case. The entire room erupted, the 3 defendants damn near fell out of their chair, lawyers on both side were trying to stifle their laughs, but not the judge, he was staring me down. Of course I'm laughing at this point and trying to explain that I wasn't being a smart ass, that's what we jokingly talked about. Anyway, sorry for the long rambling story. Have a great weekend.